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At least 235 records · Page 13

Modeling the Effect of Wetlands, Flooding, and Irrigation on River Flow: Application to the Aral Sea

As the world's population continues to increase, additional stress is placed on water resources. This stress, coupled with future uncertainties regarding climate change, makes arid and semi-arid regions particularly vulnerable. One example is the Aral Sea where the freshwater inflow, which is dominated by snowmelt runoff, has decreased significantly since the expansion of intensive irrigation in the 1960s. The purpose of this paper is to use a river routing scheme from a global climate model to examine the flow of the Amu Dar'ya River into the Aral Sea. The river routing scheme is modified to include groundwater flow, flooding, and evaporative losses in the river's wetlands and floodplain, and anthropogenic withdrawals for irrigation. A set of scenarios is designed to test the sensitivity of river flow to the inclusion of these modifications into the river routing scheme. When riverine wetlands and floodplains are present, the river flow is reduced significantly and is similar to the observed flow. In addition the model results show that it is essential to incorporate human diversions to accurately represent the inflow to the Aral Sea, and they also indicate potential management strategies that might be appropriate to maintain a balance between inflow to the Sea and upstream diversions for irrigation.

Ferrari, Michael R.↗

The Coupled Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Understanding How Clouds Affect the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

The dust and water cycles are crucial to the current Martian climate, and they are coupled through cloud formation. Dust strongly impacts the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation, while clouds provide radiative forcing and control the hemispheric exchange of water through the modification of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent improvements in the quality and sophistication of both observations and climate models allow for a more comprehensive understanding of how the interaction between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) affects the dust and water cycles individually. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distribution of dust and water, and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. For this study, we utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) combined with the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM). We demonstrate that the magnitude and nature of the net meridional transport of water between the northern and southern hemispheres during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. We further examine how clouds influence the atmospheric thermal structure and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to identify and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

Martian climate↗

Cirrus Cloud Seeding has Potential to Cool Climate

Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere, have a net warming effect on Earth s climate. Consequently, a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thickness would cool the climate. Recent research indicates that by seeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote ice nucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced. We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate model with a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and find that cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times to present day. However, the desired effect is only obtained for seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimal range. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, a seeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higher than optimal concentration results in an over-seeding that could have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetime and contributing to global warming.

Storelvmo, T.↗

Water Ice Cloud Feedbacks over the North Polar Residual Cap at Moderate Obliquity

Several global climate modeling studies have now shown that water ice clouds can warm the surface 10s of K at moderate obliquities [1,2,3]. Significant greenhouse warming occurs because the predicted clouds are optically thick, the cloud particles are large enough to efficiently interact with infrared radiation, and the clouds either form at or are transported to high altitudes where the atmosphere is cold. Radiativedynamic feedbacks play a critical role in producing the conditions needed for a strong cloud greenhouse. Two feedbacks have been identified: one involves atmospheric warming by clouds aloft at lower latitudes. These clouds are generally associated with the global Hadley circulation. The second feedback involves clouds that form over the North Polar Residual Cap (NPRC) during summer. These clouds are more closely associated with the regional polar circulation. We focus here on the second of these feedbacks with the goal of understanding the details of the interactions between sublimation, cloud formation and transport in the north polar region. We show that these feedbacks strongly control the wetness of the atmosphere and the strength of the cloud greenhouse at moderate obliquity.

Kahre, M. A.↗

Arctic Summer Ice Processes

The primary objective of this study is to estimate the flux of heat and freshwater resulting from sea ice melt in the polar seas. The approach taken is to examine the decay of sea ice in the summer months primarily through the use of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery. The improved understanding of the dynamics of the melt process can be usefully combined with ice thermodynamic and upper ocean models to form more complete models of ice melt. Models indicate that more heat is absorbed in the upper ocean when the ice cover is composed of smaller rather than larger floes and when there is more open water. Over the course of the summer, floes disintegrate by physical forcing and heating, melting into smaller and smaller sizes. By measuring the change in distribution of floes together with open water over a summer period, we can make estimates of the amount of heating by region and time. In a climatic sense, these studies are intended to improve the understanding of the Arctic heat budget which can then be eventually incorporated into improved global climate models. This work has two focus areas. The first is examining the detailed effect of storms on floe size and open water. A strong Arctic low pressure storm has been shown to loosen up the pack ice, increase the open water concentration well into the pack ice, and change the distribution of floes toward fewer and smaller floes. This suggests episodic melting and the increased importance of horizontal (lateral) melt during storms. The second focus area is related to an extensive ship-based experiment that recently took place in the Arctic called Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA). An icebreaker was placed purposely into the older pack ice north of Alaska in September 1997. The ship served as the base for experimenters who deployed extensive instrumentation to measure the atmosphere, ocean, and ice during a one-year period. My experiment will be to derive similar measurements (floe size, open water, temporal change) using spaceborne SAR data obtained during the summer of 1998, and compare these results with an ocean and ice model of summer melt. Additional information is contained in the original.

Holt, Benjamin↗

Validation of Satellite Aerosol Retrievals from AERONET Ground-Based Measurements

Accurate and comprehensive assessment of the parameters that control key atmospheric and biospheric processes including assessment of anthropogenic effects on climate change is a fundamental measurement objective of NASA's EOS program (King and Greenstone, 1999). Satellite assessment programs and associated global climate models require validation and additional parameterization with frequent reliable ground-based observations. A critical and highly uncertain element of the measurement program is characterization of tropospheric aerosols requiring basic observations of aerosols optical and microphysical properties. Unfortunately as yet we do not know the aerosol burden man is contributing to the atmosphere and thus we will have no definitive measure of change for the future. This lack of aerosol assessment is the impetus for some of the EOS measurement activities (Kaufman et al., 1997; King et al., 1999) and the formation of the AERONET program (Holben et al., 1998). The goals of the AERONET program are to develop long term monitoring at globally distributed sites providing critical data for multiannual trend changes in aerosol loading and optical properties with the specific goal of providing a data base for validation of satellite derived aerosol optical properties. The AERONET program has evolved into an international federated network of approximately 100 ground-based remote sensing monitoring stations to characterize the optical and microphysical properties of aerosols.

Holben, Brent↗

Global Single and Multiple Cloud Classification with a Fuzzy Logic Expert System

An unresolved problem in remote sensing concerns the analysis of satellite imagery containing both single and multiple cloud layers. While cloud parameterizations are very important both in global climate models and in studies of the Earth's radiation budget, most cloud retrieval schemes, such as the bispectral method used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), have no way of determining whether overlapping cloud layers exist in any group of satellite pixels. Coakley (1983) used a spatial coherence method to determine whether a region contained more than one cloud layer. Baum et al. (1995) developed a scheme for detection and analysis of daytime multiple cloud layers using merged AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder) data collected during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus 2 field campaign. Baum et al. (1995) explored the use of a cloud classification technique based on AVHRR data. This study examines the feasibility of applying the cloud classifier to global satellite imagery.

Welch, Ronald M.↗

A Neural Network Parametrization of Volumetric Cloud Fraction Profiles Using Satellite Observations and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Meteorological Data

Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the hydrologic cycle and Earth's radiative energy budget, yet they are often poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). This study applies deep machine learning techniques to develop a physical parameterization of volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), the fraction of a 3-D grid volume occupied by clouds using satellite lidar-radar measurements. The neural network (NN) captures the complicated relationships between observed VCF profiles and collocated meteorological variables from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the NN model, particularly a sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (LSTM) network with a sixfactor loss function, effectively learns the underlying cloud physical processes. The NN model outperforms MERRA-2 reanalysis in representing low-level clouds in tropical and subtropical regions and low- and middle-level clouds over midlatitude storm-track regions, and also improves VCF histograms. These improvements are reflected in the vertical distributions of zonally, meridionally, and globally averaged VCFs, geographic distributions of low-, middle-, and high-level clouds, and seasonal variations in monthly-mean VCF. Furthermore, the NN predictions effectively capture the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects and other interannual variations. The NN parameterization is further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis, in which a single predictor is perturbed at a time. This reveals that relative humidity (RH) is the dominant factor influencing variations in globally averaged VCF at low and middle altitudes, followed by temperature. At higher altitudes, temperature becomes the primary driver of VCF through its effect on RH. Changes in wind components had minimal impact on globally averaged VCF.

Shan Zeng↗

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

Background: A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships. Methods: We used Poisson regressions to model temperature-attributable premature mortality as a function of daily average temperature in 209 U.S. cities by month. We used climate data to group cities into clusters and applied an Empirical Bayes adjustment to improve model stability and calculate cluster-based month-specific temperature-mortality functions. Using data from two climate models, we calculated future daily average temperatures in each city under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. Holding population constant at 2010 levels, we combined the temperature data and cluster-based temperature-mortality functions to project city-specific temperature-attributable premature deaths for multiple future years which correspond to a single reporting year. Results within the reporting periods are then averaged to account for potential climate variability and reported as a change from a 1990 baseline in the future reporting years of 2030, 2050 and 2100. Results: We found temperature-mortality relationships that vary by location and time of year. In general, the largest mortality response during hotter months (April - September) was in July in cities with cooler average conditions. The largest mortality response during colder months (October-March) was at the beginning (October) and end (March) of the period. Using data from two global climate models, we projected a net increase in premature deaths, aggregated across all 209 cities, in all future periods compared to 1990. However, the magnitude and sign of the change varied by cluster and city. Conclusions: We found increasing future premature deaths across the 209 modeled U.S. cities using two climate model projections, based on constant temperature-mortality relationships from 1997 to 2006 without any future adaptation. However, results varied by location, with some locations showing net reductions in premature temperature-attributable deaths with climate change.

Schwartz, Joel D.↗

Satellite Remote Sensing of the Liquid Water Sensitivity in Water Clouds

In estimation of the aerosol indirect effect, cloud liquid water path is considered either constant (Twomey effect) or increasing with enhanced droplet number concentrations (drizzle-suppression effect, or Albrecht effect) if cloud microphysics is the prevailing mechanism during the aerosol-cloud interactions. On the other hand, if cloud thermodynamics and dynamics are considered, the cloud liquid water path may be decreased with increasing droplet number concentration, which is predicted by model calculations and observed in ship-track and urban influence studies. This study is to examine the different responses of cloud liquid water path to changes of cloud droplet number concentration. Satellite data (January, April, July and October 1987) are used to retrieve the cloud liquid water sensitivity, defined as the changes of liquid water path versus changes of column droplet number concentrations. The results of a global survey reveal that 1) in at least one third of the cases the cloud liquid water sensitivity is negative, and the regional and seasonal variations of the negative liquid water sensitivity are consistent with other observations; 2) cloud droplet sizes are always inversely proportional to column droplet number concentrations. Our results suggest that an increase of cloud droplet number concentration leads to reduced cloud droplet size and enhanced evaporation, which weakens the coupling between water clouds and boundary layer in warm zones, decreases water supply from surface and desiccates cloud liquid water. Our results also suggest that the current evaluations of negative aerosol indirect forcing by global climate models (GCM), which are based on Twomey effect or Albrecht effect, may be overestimated.

Han, Qing-Yuan↗

Managing Complexity in Multidisciplinary Visualization

As high performance computing technology progresses, computational simulations are becoming more advanced in their capabilities. In the computational aerosciences domain, single discipline steady-state simulations computed on a single grid are far from the state-of-the-art. In their place are complex, time-dependent multidisciplinary simulations that attempt to model a given geometry more realistically. The product of these multidisciplinary simulations is a massive amount of data stored in different formats, grid topologies, units of measure, etc., as a result of the differences in the simulated physical domains. In addition to the challenges posed by setting up and performing the simulation, additional challenges exist in analyzing computational results. Visualization plays an important role in the advancement of multidisciplinary simulations. To date, visualization has been used to aid in the interpretation of large amounts of simulation data. Because the human visual system is effective in digesting a large amount of information presented graphically, visualization has helped simulation scientists to understand complex simulation results. As these simulations become even more complex, integrating several different physical domains, visualization will be critical to digest the massive amount of information. Another important role for visualization is to provide a common communication medium from which the domain scientists can use to develop, debug, and analyze their work. Multidisciplinary analyses are the next step in simulation technology, not only in computational aerosciences, but in many other areas such as global climate modeling. Visualization researchers must understand and work towards the challenges posed by multidisciplinary simulation scenarios. This paper addresses some of these challenges, describing technologies that must be investigated to create a useful visualization analysis tool for domain scientists.

Miceli, Kristina D.↗

Martian B Storm Evolution: Modeling Dust Activity over the Receding South Polar CO 2 Ice Cap at Southern Hemisphere Summer Solstice

Observations of annually recurring, elevated (25 km) atmospheric warming and associated dust concentrations over the south polar cap near Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer solstice are the defining features of the regional dust storm known as the B storm [1]. Our observational analysis of MCS and TES temperature and dust retrievals include all Mars Years (MY) lacking a global dust storm (GDS) between MY 26 and MY 33 (Figure 1). The data indicate the B storm is initiated around perihelion (L s =252°) in the southern midlatitudes and reaches maximum height and intensity over the south pole near SH summer solstice at L s ~267°. At peak intensity, mid-level atmospheric temperatures are elevated by as much as 30 K and mid-level atmospheric dust mixing ratios are more than triple pre-B storm levels (1.5-2 ppm to 7-8 ppm). Cap edge lifting may contribute significantly to initial dust mobilization in the B storm since surface wind stress along the receding cap edge is likely strengthened by the combined effects of the sea breeze circulation and katabatic winds at this time of year [2, 3, 4]. We are investigating dust lifting and lofting near the south pole of Mars during SH summer using the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM). The NASA Ames MGCM is a finite-volume numerical model with a cubed sphere grid ideal for modeling processes at high latitudes. Initial simulations at low resolution (4x4 degrees) capture some elevated dust and associated warming at the south pole around L s =265°, but the model fails to capture the intensity of the B storm. We will examine and present the model-predicted surface stress and vertical velocities near the receding seasonal CO 2 cap edge and at the south pole during solstice. Finally, we will present higher resolution simulations to better capture small-scale dynamics and features at the pole.

Courtney M. L. Batterson↗

Low-Level Cloud Variability over the Equatorial Cold Tongue in Observations and Models

A fourth paper now in press is, Low-level cloud variability over the equatorial cold tongue in observations and models, by D. K. Mansbach and J. R. Norris (2007, J. Climate). This study examined cloud and meteorological observations from satellite, surface, and reanalysis datasets and fount that monthly anomalies in low-level cloud amount and near-surface temperature advection are strongly negatively correlated on the southern side of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. This inverse correlation occurs independently of relationships between cloud amount and sea surface temperature (SST) or lower tropospheric static stability (LTS) and the combination of advection plus SST or LTS explains significantly more interannual cloud variability in a multilinear regression than does SST or LTS alone. Warm anomalous advection occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is well defined and the southeastern Pacific trade winds bring relatively warm air over colder water. Ship meteorological reports and soundings show that the atmospheric surface layer becomes stratified under these conditions, thus inhibiting the upward mixing of moisture needed to sustain cloudiness against subsidence and entrainment drying. Cold anomalous advection primarily occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is weak or absent and the air-sea temperature difference is substantially negative. These conditions favor a more convective atmospheric boundary layer, greater cloud amount, and less frequent occurrence of clear sky. Examination of output from global climate models developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) indicates that both models generally fail to simulate the cloud-advection relationships observed on the northern and southern sides of the equatorial cold tongue. Although the GFDL atmosphere model does reproduce the expected signs of cloud-advection correlations when forced with prescribed historical SST variations, it does not consistently do so when coupled to an ocean model. The NCAR model has difficulty reproducing the observed correlations in both atmosphere-only and coupled versions. This suggests that boundary layer cloud parameterizations could be improved through better representation of the effects of advection over varying SST.

Mansbach, David K.↗

An Automatic Light Rain Detection Algorithm on NASA MPLNET Lidar Observations in the Frame of WMO GALION Project

The water cycle strongly influences life on Earth. In particular, the precipitation modifies the atmospheric column thermodynamics through the process of evaporation and serves as a proxy for latent heat modulation. For this reason, a correct precipitation parameterization (especially low-intensity precipitation) at global scale, bedsides improving our understanding of the hydrological cycle, it is crucial to reduce the associated uncertainty of the global climate models to correctly forecast future scenarios, i.e. to apply fast mitigation strategies. In this study we developed an algorithm to automatically detect precipitation from lidar measurements obtained by the National and Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse lidar network (MPLNET) permanent observational site in Goddard. The algorithm, once full operational, will deliver in Near Real Time (latency 1.5h) a new rain mask product that will be publicly available on MPLNET website as part of the new Version 3 Level 1.5 data. The methodology, based on an image processing technique, can detect only light precipitation events (defined by intensity and duration) as the morphological filters used through the detection process are applied on the lidar volume depolarization ratio range corrected composite images, i.e. heavy rain events are unusable as the lidar signal is completely extinguished after few meters in the precipitation or no signal detected because of the water accumulated on the receiver optics. Results from the algorithm, besides filling a gap in precipitation and virga detection by radars, are of particular interest for the scientific community because will help to better understand long-term aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol atmospheric removal (scavenging effect) by rain as multi-year database being available for several MPLNET permanent observational sites across the globe. Moreover, we developed the automatic algorithm at Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC) Barcelona, the unique permanent observation station member of MPLNET and the European Aerosol Lidar Network (EARLINET) In the future the algorithm can be then easily applied to any other lidar and/or ceilometer network infrastructure in the frame of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Aerosol Watch (GAW) aerosol lidar observation network (GALION)

Simone Lolli↗

File Specification for the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run, Ganymed Release Non-Hydrostatic 7-km Global Mesoscale Simulation

This document describes the gridded output files produced by a two-year global, non-hydrostatic mesoscale simulation for the period 2005-2006 produced with the non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM). In addition to standard meteorological parameters (wind, temperature, moisture, surface pressure), this simulation includes 15 aerosol tracers (dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black and organic carbon), O3, CO and CO2. This model simulation is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice, daily volcanic and biomass burning emissions, as well as high-resolution inventories of anthropogenic sources. A description of the GEOS-5 model configuration used for this simulation can be found in Putman et al. (2014). The simulation is performed at a horizontal resolution of 7 km using a cubed-sphere horizontal grid with 72 vertical levels, extending up to to 0.01 hPa (approximately 80 km). For user convenience, all data products are generated on two logically rectangular longitude-latitude grids: a full-resolution 0.0625 deg grid that approximately matches the native cubed-sphere resolution, and another 0.5 deg reduced-resolution grid. The majority of the full-resolution data products are instantaneous with some fields being time-averaged. The reduced-resolution datasets are mostly time-averaged, with some fields being instantaneous. Hourly data intervals are used for the reduced-resolution datasets, while 30-minute intervals are used for the full-resolution products. All full-resolution output is on the model's native 72-layer hybrid sigma-pressure vertical grid, while the reduced-resolution output is given on native vertical levels and on 48 pressure surfaces extending up to 0.02 hPa. Section 4 presents additional details on horizontal and vertical grids. Information of the model surface representation can be found in Appendix B. The GEOS-5 product is organized into file collections that are described in detail in Appendix C. Additional details about variables listed in this file specification can be found in a separate document, the GEOS-5 File Specification Variable Definition Glossary. Documentation about the current access methods for products described in this document can be found on the GEOS-5 Nature Run portal: http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/G5NR. Information on the scientific quality of this simulation will appear in a forthcoming NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation to be available from http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/tm/.

GEOS-5↗

Radiation-dominated Snowmelt on Mars

A set of microclimatic conditions conducive to the generation of liquid water is being sought to see whether their requirements are any less stringent than those suggested by the global-climatic models. In particular, the melting of snow and ice in the equatorial zone (where the valley networks are preferentially situated) is investigated with a model that includes detailed infrared radiation transfer between the atmosphere and the snow, penetration of sunlight into the snow, sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere, and water vapor diffusion within the surface boundary layer. IR fluxes are calculated by using pressure and temperature dependent forms for the band absorptances of CO2 and H2O in the spectral range 50 to 2000/cm.

Clow, G. D.↗

The influence of ocean surface temperature gradient and continentality on the Walker circulation. I - Prescribed tropical changes

A coarse mesh global climate model has been developed to assess ocean surface temperature (OST) gradient and continentality influences on the Walker circulation, which is characterized in the zonal plane by three pairs of clockwise and counterclockwise cells in the troposphere. The model response exhibits statistically significant changes in the intensity of the various cells and branches with small shifts in the east-west extent. The overall structure in the zonal plane for experiments with the coldest and with mean temperatures, however, remained unchanged. In an experiment involving the replacement of the South American continent by an ocean with OSTs linearly interpolated from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic, a dramatic change took place in the structure of the Walker circulation. It is concluded that both continentality and OST gradient are important Walker circulation forcing mechanisms.

Chervin, R. M.↗

Climate change and the middle atmosphere. I - The doubled CO2 climate

The effect of doubling the atmospheric content of CO2 on the middle-atmosphere climate is investigated using the GISS global climate model. In the standard experiment, the CO2 concentration is doubled both in the stratosphere and troposphere, and the SSTs are increased to match those of the doubled CO2 run of the GISS model. Results show that the doubling of CO2 leads to higher temperatures in the troposphere, and lower temperatures in the stratosphere, with a net result being a decrease of static stability for the atmosphere as a whole. The middle atmosphere dynamical differences found were on the order of 10-20 percent of the model values for the current climate. These differences, along with the calculated temperature differences of up to about 10 C, may have a significant impact on the chemistry of the future atmosphere, including that of stratospheric ozone, the polar ozone 'hole', and basic atmospheric composition.

Rind, D.↗