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At least 235 records · Page 13

Damage Accelerates Ice Shelf Instability and Mass Loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment

Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.

glaciology↗

Measurement and analysis of fast transient instabilities

In this study, a novel beam diagnostics technique to detect fast beam transient instabilities and glitches has been developed at National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II). Vertical spikes of beam size and centroid have been observed occasionally and randomly during high current operations. These spikes are believed to be caused by ion instabilities associated with vacuum activity localized in the ring. With the functionality of gated beam position monitor (BPM), the newly developed technique utilizes turn-by-turn (TBT) data to detect beam centroid glitches. Whenever one turn trajectory deviates from a predefined window, a global control event is generated to trigger an online TBT data acquisition. The data acquisition is synchronized for all BPMs around the ring. In the meantime, the bunch-by-bunch (BxB) data, which is acquired from a single dedicated feedback BPM, has also been collected for analyzing possible coupled bunch instabilities (CBI). In addition to CBI caused mainly by ion bursts, other types of fast transient motions, such as, the top-off residual disturbance and fast orbit disturbance, have been captured with the new tool. Lastly, the sources of the glitches can be approximately localized with the synchronized TBT data from multiple BPMs around the ring.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Meso-scale Instability Triggered by Dust Feedback in Dusty Rings: Origin and Observational Implications

High spatial resolution observations of protoplanetary disks by ALMA have revealed many substructures that are providing interesting constraints on disk physics as well as dust dynamics, both of which are essential for understanding planet formation. We carry out high-resolution, 2D global hydrodynamic simulations, including the effects of dust feedback, to study the stability of dusty rings. When the ring edges are relatively sharp and the dust surface density becomes comparable to the gas surface density, we find that dust feedback enhances the radial gradients of both the azimuthal velocity profile and the potential vorticity profile at the ring edges. This eventually leads to instabilities on meso-scales (spatial scales of several disk scale heights), causing dusty rings to be populated with many compact regions with highly concentrated dust densities. We also produce synthetic dust emission images using our simulation results and discuss the comparison between simulations and observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A diagnostic study of baroclinic disturbances in polar air streams

Quasi-Lagrangian budgets of mass, vorticity and heat are calculated following disturbances that form within polar air streams. Observed cases are extracted from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts analyses during the First GARP Global Experiment. Model-generated cases are extracted from the simulations of extratropical cyclogenesis by Sandgathe. These polar lows grow primarily through basic baroclinic instability processes and exhibit many features of larger maritime extratropical cyclones. Polar lows that originate on the poleward (or Cyclonic - Type C) side of the jet and have considerable midtropospheric positive vorticity advection at formation time are contrasted with lows that form on the equatorward (or Anticyclonic - Type A) side of a nearly straight upper-level jet. The midtropospheric positive vorticity advection must be present to enhance the vertical circulation when the large surface fluxes that are associated with strong outbreaks act to damp the thermal wave amplification. Although latent heat release is an important factor in both types, it is an essential energy source for the Type A low developments on the equatorward side. Although the vorticity balance is initially different for the two types of polar lows, the vorticity budgets during later stages are similar. The heat budget and the thickness tendency equation demonstrated that the self-development process that is present in larger maritime cyclones is also important for polar low intensification. The absence of favorable coupling to a jet stream is the missing factor in a model-generated Type A polar low that failed to develop. Consequently, the mid- and upper-tropospheric wind fields determine which polar lows will intensify to significant amplitudes.

Sinclair, Mark R.↗

Understanding Transient Combustion Phenomena in Low-NO x Gas Turbines

The goal of this work was to understand, quantify, and eventually predict combustion instability during operational transients in low-NO x gas turbine combustors. Transient operation is defined as a mode where one or more key operating parameters, including equivalence ratio, fuel composition, or fuel splitting between nozzles in a combustor, are varying in time. The timescale over which this variation occurs will be referred to as the transient timescale, the magnitude of the change in the transient parameter will be referred to as the transient amplitude, and the direction of the variation will be referred to as the transient direction. Transients occur regularly in power generation gas turbine operation. For example, load-following gas turbines vary load to meet power demands while accounting for variation in unsteady grid contributors like wind and solar power. Operators achieve this by varying equivalence ratio and fuel splitting inside the combustors to produce more or less power. Another example of transient operation is during fuel-switching operations, a particular issue for turbines operating with syngas fuels in a co-generation facility. In this case, the composition of the fuel stream may vary in time either as a result of fluctuations in the pipeline, or in the case of a co-generation plant, variations in feedstock or gasification processes. This fluctuation in fuel composition can have significant implications for combustion processes, particularly with high-hydrogen fuels. A small number of studies have investigated transient behavior in gas turbine combustors, particularly in the context of flame blow-off; here, investigators have typically focused on issues of transient amplitude, though without the depth and physics-based experimental design that is proposed in this program. To our knowledge, there have been no studies that have quantified the impact of the transient timescale on combustion. The work helped us understand the impact of several types of transients on combustion stability. Both static and dynamic combustion stability will be considered. The transients will be quantified using their amplitude, direction, and timescale, and we will consider transients in equivalence ratio, fuel composition, and fuel splitting. There were two main objectives of this work: 1. Provide a fundamental understanding of combustion stability during transient operation using data obtained from a number of high-speed diagnostic techniques on experimental configurations that capture important gas turbine combustor features and operating conditions. This goal was met in conjunction with our industrial partner, GE Global Research, with whom we worked closely throughout the program. 2. Develop a stability prediction framework that will allow for the prediction, and possible control, of instabilities as a function of the transient amplitude, direction, and timescale. This input/output model should be physics-based and allow for screening of operating conditions and prediction of unstable behavior at the end of a transient by monitoring combustor health and precursor signals during operation.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

microwave observations↗

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of heating rate on the condensational instability

Analysis and numerical simulation are used to determine the effect that various heating rates have on the linear and nonlinear evolution of a typical plasma within a solar magnetic flux tube subject to the condensational instability. It is found that linear stability depends strongly on the heating rate. The results of numerical simulations of the nonlinear evolution of the condensational instability in a solar magnetic flux tube are presented. Different heating rates lead to quite different nonlinear evolutions, as evidenced by the behavior of the global internal energy.

Dahlburg, R. B.↗

Verification of local electrostatic gyrokinetic simulation of driftwave instability in field-reversed configuration

Local linear simulations of ion temperature gradient (ITG) instabilities using a gyrokinetic particle code GKD1D have been verified by comparing with the analytic dispersion relation in the slab geometry and by benchmarking with a global gyrokinetic code GTC-X in a realistic field-reversed configuration (FRC). Results of ITG simulations using either adiabatic or kinetic electrons exhibit excellent agreements between the two codes for linear frequencies, growth rates, and mode structures. The ITG modes in the FRC scrape-off layer region are mostly dominated by the poloidal m = 1 harmonic. Kinetic electrons enhance the subdominant m = 2 harmonic and the even parity dominates the ITG mode structure. Kinetic electrons increase the growth rates for the low-n modes, but decrease the growth rates for the high-n modes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

PPPL Report on Reduced Modeling of Fusion Alpha Transport in ARC Burning Plasmas

We are reporting on the modeling of fusion alpha particle transport in the planned ARC fusion device being designed by the CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy). The ARC tokamak is designed to operate in a burning-plasma regime characterized by a substantial population of fusion-born alpha particles. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability is assessed both analytically and numerically, incorporating alpha-particle drive, ion Landau, and radiative damping from thermal species and collisional damping from trapped electrons. Regions of unstable and near-threshold AE activity are mapped across ARC’s operational parameter space. Linear stability analysis with NOVA indicates multiple, often marginally unstable AEs, extending to toroidal mode numbers up to n= 30. The present report focuses on the ARC flat-top operating point prior to the sawtooth event. Alpha-particle transport on timescales exceeding the neoclassical slowing-down time is assessed using the NUBEAM module [1][2] of the TRANSP code [3], employing transport coefficients derived from the RBQ quasilinear modeling (cf. Appendix B). These global simulations identify favorable and unfavorable operating regimes with respect to alpha confinement, pressure redistribution, and overall alpha-heating efficiency. We also evaluate additional transport mechanisms—including neoclassical tearing mode (TM)–induced stochasticity, sawtooth-driven redistribution, and toroidal-field ripple using the kick model (cf. Appendix C) which makes use of the guiding-center code ORBIT, see Section 5. The kick model is integrated into TRANSP to enable self-consistent predictions of alpha-driven current formation and sustainment within the ARC scenario. Sensitivity scans are performed over the mode frequency, rational-surface alignment, island width, mode amplitude, and proximity of the limiter to the plasma. Our study provides an initial, physics-based guidance for machine design, operational planning, and equilibrium control, ensuring adequate alpha confinement and robust self-heating performance in ARC. Our simulations mostly targeted worst case scenarios, e.g. for TMs and sawteeth. Overall, we expect benign effects for the ARC scenario investigated in this work on fusion alpha confinement and losses in the presence of AEs, tearing modes and sawteeth. This report addresses three thrusts identified at the outset. The first thrust focuses on analytic estimates of the parametric dependencies of EP relaxation based on local AE stability simulations (Section 3). The second thrust involves global evaluations of AE stability using the NOVA, RBQ, and NUBEAM codes (Section 4). Finally, we investigate alpha-particle transport driven by low-frequency instabilities associated with sawteeth and tearing modes (Section 5).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Laboratory experiments on current sheet disruptions, double layers turbulence and reconnection

The role of laboratory experiments to the understanding of current systems in space plasmas is reviewed. It is shown that laboratory plasmas are uniquely suited to make detailed investigations of basic physical processes in current-carrying plasmas. Examples are given for double layers, current-driven instabilities, and the plasma dynamics at magnetic neutral points during reconnection. Observations of current sheet disruptions show the coupling between local plasma phenomena (double layers) and global circuit properties (magnetic energy storage).

Stenzel, R. L.↗

MHD modeling of magnetotail instability for localized resistivity

We present results of a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of magnetotail evolution initiated by a sudden occurrence or increase of spatially localized resistivity as the major expected concequence of some localized microinstability. Because of the absence of a quantitative model, possible variations of resistivity levels with current density, or the reduction thereof, are not incorporated in the present investigation. The emphasis of the study is on an investigation of the changes to the overall evolution brought about by this localization, in particular, on the disruption and diversion of the cross-tail current and the nonlinear evolution of the magnetotail instability. The immediate consequences of the occurrence of the localized resistance and the resulting electric field are a reduction and diversion of the electric current around the region of high resistivity, associated with an increase of B(sub z) ('dipolarization') at the earthward edge and a decrease of B(sub z) at the tailward edge of this region. These effects, however, are localized and do not involve a reduction of the total cross-tail current and hence do not lead to the global development of a 'substorm current wedge,' which includes not only the reduction of the cross-tail current but also the buildup of a global field-aligned current system of 'regional 1' type (toward the Earth on the dawnside and away on the duskside of the tail). Such signatures develop at a later time, as consequences of a three-dimensional tearing instability, which is triggered by the occurrence of the resistivity. These features are found in combination with plasmoid formation and ejection, quite similar to results of earlier simulations with uniform resistivity. Differences are found in the timescale of the evolution, which tends to be shorter for localized resistivity, and in the propagation of the dipolarization effects in the equatorial plane. Whereas for uniform resistivity the temporal increase in B(sub z) tends to propagate tailward, apparently due to a pileup effect in the near-Earth region, an earthward propagation is found for the localized resistivity. This propagation results from an earthward convection of the gradient in B(sub z), which is set up by the reconnection process further tailward.

Hesse, Michael↗

Global dynamics and thermal structure of Jupiter's atmosphere

Voyager flyby observations have yielded the first detailed maps of wind and temperature fields in the Jupiter atmosphere; these data indicate that Jupiter's zonal currents violate the barotropic instability criterion if they extend only a few scale heights below the cloud tops. Microwave observations at mm and cm wavelengths have probed the atmosphere down to a level of about 7 bars, thereby constraining horizontal and vertical thermal structure in a region of the atmosphere about which little was known. Temporal variations in the temperature field suggest that dynamical processes may be important in the establishment of tropopause structure on short time scales. Ground-based and Voyager observations have also indicated a hemispheric asymmetry in temperature in the upper stratosphere.

Flasar, F. M.↗

Global dynamics and thermal structure of Jupiter's atmosphere

Voyager flyby observations have yielded the first detailed maps of wind and temperature fields in the Jupiter atmosphere; these data indicate that Jupiter's zonal currents violate the barotropic instability criterion if they extend only a few scale heights below the cloud tops. Microwave observations at mm and cm wavelengths have probed the atmosphere down to a level of about 7 bars, thereby constraining horizontal and vertical thermal structure in a region of the atmosphere about which little was known. Temporal variations in the temperature field suggest that dynamical processes may be important in the establishment of tropopause structure on short time scales. Ground-based and Voyager observations have also indicated a hemispheric asymmetry in temperature in the upper stratosphere.

Flasar, F. M.↗

A comparative analysis of GPS range, Doppler and interferometric observations for geodetic positioning

Geodetic positioning accuracies obtained from range, integrated Doppler and double differenced interferometric phase observations from a constellation of twenty-four Global Positioning System satellites are presented. It is demonstrated the GPS range and Doppler observations will provide sufficient accuracy for the estimation of geodetic coordinates. However the instability of the receiver atomic oscillator will limit the usefulness of these observations in providing rapid first-order baseline determination. Interferometric phase measurements twice differenced to eliminate clock error appear as an alternate procedure for providing such accuracies.

Fell, P. J.↗

Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

Hourdin, F.↗

A Partnership for Global Impact and Resiliency

Many researchers, particularly in the development sector, struggle with connecting their work with on-the-ground users who will benefit from their research. SERVIR, a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/ United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joint program strives to “connect space to village” and to reduce through the use of geospatial technology and data. Partnerships with organizations, such as Mercy Corps, are important for connecting to the village level and ensuring that our work is benefiting the most vulnerable communities. Mercy Corps is a global non-governmental, humanitarian and development organization operating in transitional contexts that have undergone, or have been undergoing, various forms of economic, environmental, social and political instabilities. Through the Mercy Corps and SERVIR partnership, we are able to bring together the remote sensing and geospatial technology expertise of SERVIR and the on-the-ground expertise of Mercy Corps. In this talk we will provide additional background of this partnership as well as provide examples of how we have collaborated thus far in the partnership. The partnership spans engagement from connecting one another with our various partners to in-depth collaboration on specific projects. Additionally, we will discuss some of the various goals and outcomes of the partnership that help frame our work together in the present and future.

Muench, Rebekke↗

Turbulent Rotating Rayleigh–Bénard Convection

Rotation with thermally induced buoyancy governs many astrophysical and geophysical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, sun, and Earth's liquid-metal outer core. Rotating Rayleigh–Bénard convection (RRBC) is an experimental system that has features of rotation and buoyancy, where a container of height H and temperature difference Δ between its bottom and top is rotated about its vertical axis with angular velocity Ω. The strength of buoyancy is reflected in the Rayleigh number (~ H 3 Δ) and that of the Coriolis force in the Ekman and Rossby numbers (~Ω -1 ). Rotation suppresses the convective onset, introduces instabilities, changes the velocity boundary layers, modifies the shape of thermal structures from plumes to vortical columns, affects the large-scale circulation, and can decrease or enhance global heat transport depending on buoyant and Coriolis forcing. RRBC is an extremely rich system, with features directly comparable to geophysical and astrophysical phenomena. Here we review RRBC studies, suggest a unifying heat transport scaling approach for the transition between rotation-dominated and buoyancy-dominated regimes in RRBC, and discuss non-Oberbeck–Boussinesq and centrifugal effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗