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Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗
NASA NTRS2013

Affordable Development and Qualification Strategy for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is a concept which uses a nuclear reactor to heat a propellant to high temperatures without combustion and can achieve significantly greater specific impulse than chemical engines. NTP has been considered many times for human and cargo missions beyond low earth orbit. A lot of development and technical maturation of NTP components took place during the Rover/NERVA program of the 60's and early 70's. Other NTP programs and studies followed attempting to further mature the NTP concept and identify a champion customer willing to devote the funds and support the development schedule to a demonstration mission. Budgetary constraints require the use of an affordable development and qualification strategy that takes into account all the previous work performed on NTP to construct an existing database, and include lessons learned and past guidelines followed. Current guidelines and standards NASA uses for human rating chemical rocket engines is referenced. The long lead items for NTP development involve the fuel elements of the reactor and ground testing the engine system, subsystem, and components. Other considerations which greatly impact the development plans includes the National Space Policy, National Environmental Policy Act, Presidential Directive/National Security Council Memorandum #25 (Scientific or Technological Experiments with Possible Large-Scale Adverse Environmental Effects and Launch of Nuclear Systems into Space), and Safeguards and Security. Ground testing will utilize non-nuclear test capabilities to help down select components and subsystems before testing in a nuclear environment to save time and cost. Existing test facilities with minor modifications will be considered to the maximum extent practical. New facilities will be designed to meet minimum requirements. Engine and test facility requirements are based on the driving mission requirements with added factors of safety for better assurance and reliability. Emphasis will be placed on small engines, since the smaller the NTP engine, the easier it is to transport, assemble/disassemble, and filter the exhaust during tests. A new ground test concept using underground bore holes (modeled after the underground nuclear test program) to filter the NTP engine exhaust is being considered. The NTP engine system design, development, test, and evaluation plan includes many engine components and subsystems, which are very similar to those used in chemical engines, and can be developed in conjunction with them Other less mature NTP engine components and subsystems (e.g., reactor) will be thoroughly analyzed and tested to acceptable levels recommended by the referenced standards and guidelines. The affordable development strategy also considers a prototype flight test, as a final step in the development process. Preliminary development schedule estimates show that an aggressive development schedule (without much margin) will be required to be flight ready for a 2033 human mission to Mars.

Gerrish, Harold P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Affordable Development and Qualification Strategy for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is a concept which uses a nuclear reactor to heat a propellant to high temperatures without combustion and can achieve significantly greater specific impulse than chemical engines. NTP has been considered many times for human and cargo missions beyond low earth orbit. A lot of development and technical maturation of NTP components took place during the Rover/NERVA program of the 60's and early 70's. Other NTP programs and studies followed attempting to further mature the NTP concept and identify a champion customer willing to devote the funds and support the development schedule to a demonstration mission. Budgetary constraints require the use of an affordable development and qualification strategy that takes into account all the previous work performed on NTP to construct an existing database, and include lessons learned and past guidelines followed. Current guidelines and standards NASA uses for human rating chemical rocket engines is referenced. The long lead items for NTP development involve the fuel elements of the reactor and ground testing the engine system, subsystem, and components. Other considerations which greatly impact the development plans includes the National Space Policy, National Environmental Policy Act, Presidential Directive/National Security Council Memorandum #25 (Scientific or Technological Experiments with Possible Large-Scale Adverse Environmental Effects and Launch of Nuclear Systems into Space), and Safeguards and Security. Ground testing will utilize non-nuclear test capabilities to help down select components and subsystems before testing in a nuclear environment to save time and cost. Existing test facilities with minor modifications will be considered to the maximum extent practical. New facilities will be designed to meet minimum requirements. Engine and test facility requirements are based on the driving mission requirements with added factors of safety for better assurance and reliability. Emphasis will be placed on small engines, since the smaller the NTP engine, the easier it is to transport, assemble/disassemble, and filter the exhaust during tests. A new ground test concept using underground bore holes (modeled after the underground nuclear test program) to filter the NTP engine exhaust is being considered. The NTP engine system design, development, test, and evaluation plan includes many engine components and subsystems, which are very similar to those used in chemical engines, and can be developed in conjunction with them Other less mature NTP engine components and subsystems (e.g., reactor) will be thoroughly analyzed and tested to acceptable levels recommended by the referenced standards and guidelines. The affordable development strategy also considers a prototype flight test, as a final step in the development process. Preliminary development schedule estimates show that an aggressive development schedule (without much margin) will be required to be flight ready for a 2033 human mission to Mars.

Gerrish, Harold P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Nonlinear Estimation Approach to Real-Time Georegistration from Aerial Images

When taking aerial images, it is important to know locations of specific points of interest in an Earth-centered coordinate system (latitude, longitude, height). The correspondence between a pixel location in the image and its Earth coordinate is known as georegistration. There are two main technical challenges arising in the intended application. The first is that no known features are assumed to be available in any of the images. The second is that the intended applications are real time. Here, images are taken at regular intervals (i.e. once per second), and it is desired to make decisions in real time based on the geolocation of specific objects seen in the images as they arrive. This is in sharp contrast to most current methods for geolocation that operate "after-the-fact" by processing, on the ground, a database of stored images using computationally intensive methods. The solution is a nonlinear estimation algorithm that combines processed realtime camera images with vehicle position and attitude information ob tained from an onboard GPS receiver. This approach provides accurate georegistration estimates (latitude, longitude, height) of arbitrary features and/or points of interest seen in the camera images. This solves the georegistration problem at the modest cost of augmenting the camera information with a GPS receiver carried onboard the vehicle.

Bayard, David S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Development of a Low-Cost Sub-Scale Aircraft for Flight Research: The FASER Project

An inexpensive unmanned sub-scale aircraft was developed to conduct frequent flight test experiments for research and demonstration of advanced dynamic modeling and control design concepts. This paper describes the aircraft, flight systems, flight operations, and data compatibility including details of some practical problems encountered and the solutions found. The aircraft, named Free-flying Aircraft for Sub-scale Experimental Research, or FASER, was outfitted with high-quality instrumentation to measure aircraft inputs and states, as well as vehicle health parameters. Flight data are stored onboard, but can also be telemetered to a ground station in real time for analysis. Commercial-off-the-shelf hardware and software were used as often as possible. The flight computer is based on the PC104 platform, and runs xPC-Target software. Extensive wind tunnel testing was conducted with the same aircraft used for flight testing, and a six degree-of-freedom simulation with nonlinear aerodynamics was developed to support flight tests. Flight tests to date have been conducted to mature the flight operations, validate the instrumentation, and check the flight data for kinematic consistency. Data compatibility analysis showed that the flight data are accurate and consistent after corrections are made for estimated systematic instrumentation errors.

Owens, Donald B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Groves, Curtis E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Fluid Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS1978

Waterway Ice Thickness Measurements

The ship on the opposite page is a U. S. Steel Corporation tanker cruising through the ice-covered waters of the Great Lakes in the dead of winter. The ship's crew is able to navigate safely by plotting courses through open water or thin ice, a technique made possible by a multi-agency technology demonstration program in which NASA is a leading participant. Traditionally, the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System is closed to shipping for more than three months of winter season because of ice blockage, particularly fluctuations in the thickness and location of ice cover due to storms, wind, currents and variable temperatures. Shippers have long sought a system of navigation that would allow year-round operation on the Lakes and produce enormous economic and fuel conservation benefits. Interrupted operations require that industrial firms stockpile materials to carry them through the impassable months, which is costly. Alternatively, they must haul cargos by more expensive overland transportation. Studies estimate the economic benefits of year-round Great Lakes shipping in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually and fuel consumption savings in the tens of millions of gallons. Under Project Icewarn, NASA, the U.S. Coast Guard and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration collaborated in development and demonstration of a system that permits safe year-round operations. It employs airborne radars, satellite communications relay and facsimile transmission to provide shippers and ships' masters up-to-date ice charts. Lewis Research Center contributed an accurate methods of measuring ice thickness by means of a special "short-pulse" type of radar. In a three-year demonstration program, Coast Guard aircraft equipped with Side-Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) flew over the Great Lakes three or four times a week. The SLAR, which can penetrate clouds, provided large area readings of the type and distribution of ice cover. The information was supplemented by short-pulse radar measurements of ice thickness. The radar data was relayed by a NOAA satellite to a ground station where NOAA analyzed it and created picture maps, such as the one shown at lower left, showing where icebreakers can cut paths easily or where shipping can move through thin ice without the aid of icebreakers. The ice charts were then relayed directly to the wheelhouses of ships operating on the Lakes. Following up the success of the Great Lakes program, the icewarn team applied its system in another demonstration, this one a similarly successful application designed to aid Arctic coast shipping along the Alaskan North Slope. Further improvement of the ice-monitoring system is planned. Although aircraft-mounted radar is effective, satellites could provide more frequent data. After the launch this year of Seasat, an ocean-monitoring satellite, NASA will conduct tests to determine the ice-mapping capability and accuracy of satellite radar images.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1999

Autonomous Navigation Using Celestial Objects

In the twenty-first century, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Enterprises envision frequent low-cost missions to explore the solar system, observe the universe, and study our planet. Satellite autonomy is a key technology required to reduce satellite operating costs. The Guidance, Navigation, and Control Center (GNCC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) currently sponsors several initiatives associated with the development of advanced spacecraft systems to provide autonomous navigation and control. Autonomous navigation has the potential both to increase spacecraft navigation system performance and to reduce total mission cost. By eliminating the need for routine ground-based orbit determination and special tracking services, autonomous navigation can streamline spacecraft ground systems. Autonomous navigation products can be included in the science telemetry and forwarded directly to the scientific investigators. In addition, autonomous navigation products are available onboard to enable other autonomous capabilities, such as attitude control, maneuver planning and orbit control, and communications signal acquisition. Autonomous navigation is required to support advanced mission concepts such as satellite formation flying. GNCC has successfully developed high-accuracy autonomous navigation systems for near-Earth spacecraft using NASA's space and ground communications systems and the Global Positioning System (GPS). Recently, GNCC has expanded its autonomous navigation initiative to include satellite orbits that are beyond the regime in which use of GPS is possible. Currently, GNCC is assessing the feasibility of using standard spacecraft attitude sensors and communication components to provide autonomous navigation for missions including: libration point, gravity assist, high-Earth, and interplanetary orbits. The concept being evaluated uses a combination of star, Sun, and Earth sensor measurements along with forward-link Doppler measurements from the command link carrier to autonomously estimate the spacecraft's orbit and reference oscillator's frequency. To support autonomous attitude determination and control and maneuver planning and control, the orbit determination accuracy should be on the order of kilometers in position and centimeters per second in velocity. A less accurate solution (one hundred kilometers in position) could be used for acquisition purposes for command and science downloads. This paper provides performance results for both libration point orbiting and high Earth orbiting satellites as a function of sensor measurement accuracy, measurement types, measurement frequency, initial state errors, and dynamic modeling errors.

Folta, David↗
NASA NTRS2003

Towards Automating Spacecraft Attitude Sensor Calibration

With a view towards reducing cost and complexity for spacecraft early mission support at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), efforts are being made to automate the attitude sensor calibration process. This paper addresses one of the major components needed by such a system. The beneficiaries of an improved calibration process are missions that demand moderate to high precision attitude knowledge or that need to perform accurate attitude slews. Improved slew accuracy reduces the time needed for re-acquisition of fine-pointing after each attitude maneuver, Rapid target acquisition can be very important for astronomical targeting or for off-nadir surface feature targeting by Earth-oriented spacecraft. The normal sequence of on-orbit calibration starts with alignment calibration of the star trackers and possibly the Sun sensor. Their relative alignment needs to be determined using a sufficiently large data set so their fields of view are adequately sampled. Next, the inertial reference unit (IRU) is calibrated for corrections to its alignment and scale factors. The IRU biases are estimated continuously by the onboard attitude control system, but the IRU alignment and scale factors are usually determined on the ground using a batch-processing method on a data set that includes several slews sufficient to give full observability of all the IRU calibration parameters. Finally, magnetometer biases, alignment, and its coupling to the magnetic torquers are determined in order io improve momentum management and occasionally for use in the attitude determination system. The detailed approach used for automating calibrations will depend on whether the automated system resides on the ground or on the spacecraft with an ultimate goal of autonomous calibration. Current efforts focus on a ground-based system driving subsystems that could run either on the ground or onboard. The distinction is that onboard calibration should process the data sequentially rather than in a single large batch since onboard computer data storage is limited. Very good batch- processing calibration utilities have been developed and used extensively at NASA/GSFC for mission support but no sequential calibration utilities are available. To meet this need, this paper presents the mathematical description of a sequential IRU calibration system. The system has been tested using flight data from the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) during a series of attitude slews. The paper also discusses the current state of the overall automated system and describes plans for adding sequential alignment calibration and other additions that will reduce the amount of analyst time and input.

Sedlak, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Affording Mars Workshop: Background and Recommendations

A human mission to Mars is the stated "ultimate" goal for NASA and is widely believed by the public to be the most compelling destination for America's space program. However, widely cited enormous costs - perhaps as much as a trillion dollars for a many-decade campaign - seem to be an impossible hurdle, although political and budget instability over many years may be equally challenging. More recently, a handful of increasingly detailed architectures for initial Mars missions have been developed by commercial companies that have estimated costs much less than widely believed and roughly comparable with previous major human space flight programs: the Apollo Program, the International Space Station, and the space shuttle. Several of these studies are listed in the bibliography to the workshop report. As a consequence of these new scenarios, beginning in spring, 2013 a multiinstitutional planning team began developing the content and invitee list for a winter workshop that would critically assess concepts, initiatives, technology priorities, and programmatic options to reduce significantly the costs of human exploration of Mars. The output of the workshop - findings and recommendations - would be presented in a number of forums and discussed with national leaders in human space flight. It would also be made available to potential international partners. This workshop was planned from the start to be the first in a series. Subsequent meetings, conferences, and symposia will concentrate on topics not able to be covered in December. In addition, to make progress in short meeting, a handful of ground rules were adopted by the planning team and agreed to by the participants. Perhaps the two most notable such ground rules were (1) the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion would be available during the time frame considered by the participants and (2) the International Space Station (ISS) would remain the early linchpin in preparing for Mars exploration over the coming decade. The workshop was organized around three topical breakout sessions: 1. The ISS and the path to Mars: The critical coming decade 2. Affordability and sustainability: what does it mean and what are its implications within guidelines established at the start of the workshop? 3. Notional sequence(s) of cost-achievable missions for the 2020s to 2030s, including capability objectives at each stage and opportunities for coordinated robotic partnerships.

background↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting molecular dipole moments by combining atomic partial charges and atomic dipoles

The molecular dipole moment ( μ ) is a central quantity in chemistry. It is essential in predicting infrared and sum-frequency generation spectra as well as induction and long-range electrostatic interactions. Furthermore, it can be extracted directly—via the ground state electron density—from high-level quantum mechanical calculations, making it an ideal target for machine learning (ML). Here, we choose to represent this quantity with a physically inspired ML model that captures two distinct physical effects: local atomic polarization is captured within the symmetry-adapted Gaussian process regression framework which assigns a (vector) dipole moment to each atom, while the movement of charge across the entire molecule is captured by assigning a partial (scalar) charge to each atom. The resulting “MuML” models are fitted together to reproduce molecular μ computed using high-level coupled-cluster theory and density functional theory (DFT) on the QM7b dataset, achieving more accurate results due to the physics-based combination of these complementary terms. The combined model shows excellent transferability when applied to a showcase dataset of larger and more complex molecules, approaching the accuracy of DFT at a small fraction of the computational cost. We also demonstrate that the uncertainty in the predictions can be estimated reliably using a calibrated committee model. The ultimate performance of the models—and the optimal weighting of their combination—depends, however, on the details of the system at hand, with the scalar model being clearly superior when describing large molecules whose dipole is almost entirely generated by charge separation. These observations point to the importance of simultaneously accounting for the local and non-local effects that contribute to μ ; furthermore, they define a challenging task to benchmark future models, particularly those aimed at the description of condensed phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Study into the Method of Precise Orbit Determination of a HEO Orbiter by GPS and Accelerometer

In the present day, orbit determination by Global Positioning System (GPS) is not unusual. Especially for low-cost small satellites, position determination by an on-board GPS receiver provides a cheap, reliable and precise method. However, the original purpose of GPS is for ground users, so the transmissions from all of the GPS satellites are directed toward the Earth s surface. Hence there are some restrictions for users above the GPS constellation to detect those signals. On the other hand, a desire for precise orbit determination for users in orbits higher than GPS constellation exists. For example, the next Japanese Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) mission "ASTRO-G" is trying to determine its orbit in an accuracy of a few centimeters at apogee. The use of GPS is essential for such ultra accurate orbit determination. This study aims to construct a method for precise orbit determination for such high orbit users, especially in High Elliptical Orbits (HEOs). There are several approaches for this objective. In this study, a hybrid method with GPS and an accelerometer is chosen. Basically, while the position cannot be determined by an on-board GPS receiver or other Range and Range Rate (RARR) method, all we can do to estimate the user satellite s position is to propagate the orbit along with the force model, which is not perfectly correct. However if it has an accelerometer (ACC), the coefficients of the air drag and the solar radiation pressure applied to the user satellite can be updated and then the propagation along with the "updated" force model can improve the fitting accuracy of the user satellite s orbit. In this study, it is assumed to use an accelerometer available in the present market. The effects by a bias error of an accelerometer will also be discussed in this paper.

Ikenaga, Toshinori↗
NASA NTRS2010

Application of the Tor Vergata Scattering Model to L Band Backscatter During the Corn Growth Cycle

At the USDA's Optimizing Production Inputs for Economic and Environmental Enhancement (OPE3) experimental site in Beltsville, Maryland, USA) a field campaign took place throughout the 2002 corn growth cycle from May 10th (emergence of corn crops) to October 2nd (harvest). One of the microwave instruments deployed was the multi-frequency (X-, C- and L-band) quad-polarized (HH, HV, VV, VH) NASA GSFC/George Washington University (GWU) truck mounted radar. During the field campaign, this radar system provided once a week fully polarized C- and L-band (4.75 and 1.6 GHz) backscatter measurements from incidence angle of 15, 35, and 55 degrees. In support of microwave observations, an extensive ground characterization took place, which included measurements of surface roughness, soil moisture, vegetation biomass and morphology. The field conditions during the campaign are characterized by several dry downs with a period of drought in the month of August. Peak biomass the corn canopies was reached on July 24th with a total biomass of approximately 6.5 kg/sq m. This dynamic range in both soil moisture and vegetation conditions within the data set is ideal for the validation of discrete medium vegetation scattering models. In this study, we compare the L band backscatter measurements with simulations by the Tor Vergata model (ferrazzoli and Guerriero 1996). The measured soil moisture, vegetation biomass and most reliably measured vegetation morphological parameters (e.g. number of leaves, number of stems and stem height) were used as input for the Tor Vergata model. The more uncertain model parameters (e.g. surface roughness, leaf thickness) and the stem diameter were optimized using a parameter estimation routine based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. As cost function for this optimization, the HH and VV polarized backscatter measured and stimulated by the TOR Vergata model for incidence angle of 15, 35, and 55 degrees were used (6 measurements in total). The calibrated Tor Vergata model simulations are in excellent agreement with the measurements of Root Mean Squared Differences (RMSD's) of 0.8, 0.9 and 1.4 dB for incidences of 15, 35 and 55 degrees, respectively. The results from this study that a physically based scattering model with the appropriate parameterization can accurately simulate backscatter measurements and, as such, have the potential of being used for the retrieval of biophysical variables (e.g. soil moisture and vegetation biomass).

Joseph, A. T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Air Quality Forecasting at Sub-City Scale by Combining Models, Satellites, and Surface Measures

While there are a variety of sources for air quality information, no one source simultaneously allows for high accuracy, low bias, fine spatial resolution, wide spatial coverage, high temporal frequency, and the capability for near-term forecasting of air quality. Global models, like the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System -Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) model, provide global coverage and forecasting capabilities, but operate at relatively coarse spatial resolution and require ground-truthing with in-situ data. Polar-orbiting satellite data products, like those of the ESA TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), provide higher-spatial-resolution remote sensing of atmospheric composition, but are limited by cloud cover and overpass times and report column-integrated quantities. Surface measurements, both from regulatory-grade monitors and low-cost networks, measure “nose-level” air quality, but may not represent concentration variability across large spatial domains, and (in the case of low-cost sensors) are subject to interference and biases. There exists a great potential to combine these diverse data sources together, using the strengths of some to offset the weaknesses of others to build a more comprehensive picture of air quality. This presentation will summarize results from ongoing efforts to produce such a combined forecast, with application case studies for surface-level Nitrogen Dioxide forecasting in several major US cities. Furthermore, we will examine the relative impacts and benefits of different data sources on the forecasting accuracy at different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we will examine the potential for integrating low-cost sensors into such a system, both in terms of using these integrated air quality estimates as a baseline from which to calibrate networks of low-cost sensors in the field, and in terms of using dense networks of low-cost sensors to refine the spatial resolution of integrated air quality forecasts.

Air Quality↗
NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of Association Between Remotely Sensed (RS) Data and Soil Transmitted Helminthes Infection Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS): Boaco, Nicaragua

Soil-transmitted helminths are intestinal nematodes that can infect all members of a population but specially school-age children living in poverty. Infection can be significantly reversed with anthelmintic drug treatments and sanitation improvement. Implementation of effective public health programs requires reliable and updated information to identify areas at higher risk and to calculate amount of drug required. Geo-referenced in situ prevalence data will be overlaid over an ecological map derived from RS data using ARC Map 9.3 (ESRI). Prevalence data and RS data matching at the same geographical location will be analyzed for correlation and those variables from RS data that better correlate with prevalence will be included in a multivariate regression model. Temperature, vegetation, and distance to bodies of water will be inferred using data from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat TM and ETM+. Elevation will be estimated with data from The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Prevalence and intensity of infections are determined by parasitological survey (Kato Katz) of children enrolled in rural schools in Boaco, Nicaragua, in the communities of El Roblar, Cumaica Norte, Malacatoya 1, and Malacatoya 2). This study will demonstrate the importance of an integrated GIS/RS approach to define sampling clusters without the need for any ground-based survey. Such information is invaluable to identify areas of high risk and to geographically target control programs that maximize cost-effectiveness and sanitation efforts.

MorenoMadrinan, Max J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-­‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-­‐mission and multi-­‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-­‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-­‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-­‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-­‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-­‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-­‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-­‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-­‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-­‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-­‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗