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At least 235 records · Page 13

Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest

Water transit times strongly influence water quality, temperature, and seasonal hydrologic response of river systems. How water transit times may shift under future climates remains unconstrained, especially in mountainous regions experiencing rapid snowpack declines. Here, we estimated historical (2006–2013) and future (2086–2093) water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest using sequential precipitation input tagging within the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model. Our results indicate water transit times are 18% (35–64 days) faster on average under the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario due to shifts in rain-snow partitioning, with higher fractions of younger water in the wet season and older water in the dry season. These results suggest shifts in rain-snow partitioning in snowmelt dominated catchments of the Pacific Northwest will shorten water transit times leading to likely impacts on regional water quality, temperature, and hydrologic seasonality.

Butler, Zachariah [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, ↗

Ensemble Estimation of Historical Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous U.S.

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall‐to‐wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS‐wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national‐scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

EGS Collab Experiment 1: DNA tracer data on transport through porous media

This submission contains DNA tracer data that supports the analysis and conclusions of the publication, "DNA tracer transport through porous media -The effect of DNA length and adsorption." https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028382. This experiment used DNA as an artificial reservoir tracer. Groundwater tracing is an effective way to identify fluid flow pathways and estimate hydrogeologic properties, which are important premises for building reliable hydrological models for transport predictions or contamination mitigations. The objective of this study was to understand the effect of DNA length (i.e., number of base pairs for dsDNA) and adsorption on DNA transport.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Elevation distributed micro-climatology data in a coastal glaciated watershed

Air temperature, ground temperature and relative humidity data were collected in a longitudinal transect of the Nooksack watershed at varying elevations from 500 to 1800 m above sea level. Data were collected by anchoring sensors from trees above winter snow levels and shaded from direct solar radiation. Paired sensors were also buried 3 cm under ground near each air temperature sensor to determine snow absence or presence. Select sites included relative humidity sensors to indicate whether precipitation was occurring. Data were collected every 3-4 h from December 2015 to Sept 2018 (with ongoing collection). Code for analysis of daily mean, minimum, maximum, and temperature change with elevation (lapse rates) are available on Github (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3239539). The sensor download and intermediate data products are available on HydroShare at (http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/222e832d3df24dea9bae9bbeb6f4219d) with publicly accessible visualization available from the Nooksack Observatory at data.cuahsi.org. Hydrologic models are generally structured with a single annual average lapse rate parameter which assumes a linear temperature gradient with elevation. The daily data (2016-2018) is used as part of ongoing studies on the non-linear dynamics and temporal variability of temperature with elevation to improve assessments of watershed function and salmon habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗

3D characterisation and quantification of an offshore freshened groundwater system in the Canterbury Bight

Although offshore freshened groundwater (OFG) systems have been documented in numerous continental margins worldwide, their geometry, controls and emplacement dynamics remain poorly constrained. Here we integrate controlled-source electromagnetic, seismic reflection and borehole data with hydrological modelling to quantitatively characterise a previously unknown OFG system near Canterbury, New Zealand. The OFG system consists of one main, and two smaller, low salinity groundwater bodies. The main body extends up to 60 km from the coast and a seawater depth of 110 m. We attribute along-shelf variability in salinity to permeability heterogeneity due to permeable conduits and normal faults, and to recharge from rivers during sea level lowstands. A meteoric origin of the OFG and active groundwater migration from onshore are inferred. However, modelling results suggest that the majority of the OFG was emplaced via topographically-driven flow during sea level lowstands in the last 300 ka. Global volumetric estimates of OFG will be significantly revised if active margins, with steep coastal topographies like the Canterbury margin, are considered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydraulic Modeling of Induced and Propagated Fractures: Analysis of Flow and Pressure Data From Hydromechanical Experiments in the COSC-1 Deep Borehole in Crystalline Rock Near Åre, Sweden

To characterize the coupled hydromechanical behavior of rock fractures, the step-rate injection method for fracture in-situ properties (SIMFIP) was conducted with a specialized downhole probe developed by Guglielmi et.al. In June 2019, a field campaign was carried out near Åre, Sweden, where the SIMFIP probe was applied in the Collisional Orogeny in the Scandinavian Caledonides-1 scientific borehole to understand the dynamics of injection-induced fracture initiation, fracture opening, and shearing due to water injection-withdrawal in a borehole interval isolated by two packers. Three intervals were investigated at ~500 m depth: (a) an unfractured section (intact rock), (b) a section with non-conductive fractures, and (c) a section with hydraulically conductive fractures. Pressure, injection flow rate, and borehole wall displacement were simultaneously measured during the tests. In the present study, the geometry of the induced fracture and deformation of existing fractures at different time stages of the tests are determined based on a hydrologic model by using the measured pressure and flow data during each time stage of the experiment. A numerical model for the fluid flow within the fracture and the packed-off borehole interval is implemented within COMSOL Multiphysics. By matching model simulations with observed data for all three sections, estimates of the induced and propagated fractures' radius and aperture at successive time stages have been obtained in each case. We could also determine the non-linear relationship between fracture aperture and pressure for values above fracture opening pressures. The model results provide insights for the understanding of pressure-induced fracture initiation and propagation in crystalline rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparing multi-source urban flood indicators: satellite, simulation, and citizen-reported data

Urban flooding arises from complex mechanisms, making it challenging to capture accurately with a single detection method. This study evaluates three complementary approaches to detect flooding across three Chicago neighborhoods: (i) Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR), offering weather-independent, high-resolution (10 m) imagery of surface inundation; (ii) the storm water management model (SWMM), simulating combined sewer overflow and drainage performance; and (iii) citizen-generated 311 service requests, capturing observed flooding impacts. By analyzing six storms ranging from severe to mild, we examine how each source uniquely contributes to identifying urban flood events. SAR imagery effectively identifies standing water but can miss brief flooding due to satellite revisit constraints. SWMM provides detailed insights into system-wide drainage behavior yet may underestimate localized street-level flooding. Meanwhile, 311 calls reflect real-world flooding impacts but are vulnerable to underreporting. Statistical overlap analysis highlights chronic flood hotspots repeatedly identified across multiple detection methods, indicating persistent infrastructure and topographic vulnerabilities. Temporal analysis further reveals that while SWMM flooding aligns closely with rainfall peaks, 311 calls typically precede or persist beyond these peaks. Our findings emphasize the value of using satellite observations, hydrological modeling, and resident-reported data in a complementary manner to better interpret patterns in flood timing, severity, and spatial distribution—providing insights that can inform targeted infrastructure improvements and contribute to urban flood resilience planning.

311↗

Controls From Above and Below: Snow, Soil, and Steepness Drive Diverging Trends of Subsurface Water and Streamflow Dynamics

ABSTRACT The importance of subsurface water dynamics, such as water storage and flow partitioning, is well recognised. Yet, our understanding of their drivers and links to streamflow generation has remained elusive, especially in small headwater streams that are often data‐limited but crucial for downstream water quantity and quality. Large‐scale analyses have focused on streamflow characteristics across rivers with varying drainage areas, often overlooking the subsurface water dynamics that shape streamflow behaviour. Here we ask the question: What are the climate and landscape characteristics that regulate subsurface dynamic storage, flow path partitioning, and dynamics of streamflow generation in headwater streams? To answer this question, we used streamflow data and a widely‐used hydrological model (HBV) for 15 headwater catchments across the contiguous United States. Results show that climate characteristics such as aridity and precipitation phase (snow or rain) and land attributes such as topography and soil texture are key drivers of streamflow generation dynamics. In particular, steeper slopes generally promoted more streamflow, regardless of aridity. Streams in flat, rainy sites (< 30% precipitation as snow) with finer soils exhibited flashier regimes than those in snowy sites (> 30% precipitation as snow) or sites with coarse soils and deeper flow paths. In snowy sites, less weathered, thinner soils promoted shallower flow paths such that discharge was more sensitive to changes in storage, but snow dampened streamflow flashiness overall. Results here indicate that land characteristics such as steepness and soil texture modify subsurface water storage and shallow and deep flow partitioning, ultimately regulating streamflow response to climate forcing. As climate change increases uncertainty in water availability, understanding the interacting climate and landscape features that regulate streamflow will be essential to predict hydrological shifts in headwater catchments and improve water resources management.

Kerins, Devon [Department of Civil and Environment↗

Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture

Agricultural production and food prices are affected by hydroclimatic extremes. There has been a growing amount of literature measuring the impacts of individual extreme events (heat stress or water stress) on agricultural and human systems. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the significance and the magnitude of the impacts of compound extremes. This study combines a fine-scale weather product with outputs of a hydrological model to construct functional metrics of individual and compound hydroclimatic extremes for agriculture. Then, a yield response function is estimated with individual and compound metrics, focusing on corn in the United States during the 1981–2015 period. Supported by statistical evidence, the findings suggest that metrics of compound hydroclimatic extremes are better predictors of corn yield variations than metrics of individual extremes. The results also confirm that wet heat is more damaging than dry heat for corn. This study shows the average yield damage from heat stress has been up to four times more severe when combined with water stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Techniques for Vegetation Removal from UAV-Based Photogrammetric DSM near WIPP Land Withdrawal Act Boundary, NM

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is located within New Mexico's karst landscape and is the United States' only deep geologic radioactive waste repository which isolates transuranic waste from defense activities underground in a bedded salt formation. Characteristic karst topography in this region is made up of material (such as limestone) that can be dissolved by water over a long period of time, and includes features such as springs, surface streams, sinking streams, caves, and sinkholes. Karst features can potentially impact the integrity of the waste repository in the future and compromise WIPP's performance, particularly when coupled with incompatible land-use activities within the Land Withdrawal Act (LWA) boundary as well as increased water withdrawals outside the LWA. In order to better capture the ground surface topography to support hydrology modeling efforts, the U.S. DOE has enlisted FIU to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). In a previous field study, a high-resolution digital surface model (DSM) of an adjacent representative site, Basin 6, was developed by photogrammetry using aerial images captured with unmanned aerial vehicles. The DSM generated was based on point clouds representing the entire landscapes, including points of terrain, vegetation and infrastructure. These above-ground features need to be removed to create a DSM/DEM with good representation of the bare ground. In recent years, many techniques including both pre- and post-processing of DSMs, were developed for vegetation removal with varied success. This research focuses on applying and comparing various vegetation removal methods using point clouds generated of the Basin 6 pilot study area. The 3D RGB-based point cloud classification using Python scripts was a modification of the procedure by Themistocleous (2019). The method using Liblas classifies the point cloud three-dimensionally, whereas the method by Themistocleous (2019) is two-dimensional. The preliminary result of the method using Liblas, however, still had a large amount of vegetation remaining compared to the Pix4D Machine Learning method. The vegetation layer remains highly visible in the DEMs processed using the vegetation indices as opposed to the Pix4D Machine Learning method, which produces a DEM where mostly bare ground is seen. Further modifications to the input parameters are required to improve the vegetation vs. bare ground classification using this approach. The next step will be to improve the method using Liblas and to also test other vegetation removal methods found in the literature review to compare them against the two described here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) of Snow Water Equivalent from the Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory

The upper Colorado River basin is the primary source of water for 40 million people. With declining snowpack in the basin, forecasting hydrological budgets in the Southwest United States is more important than ever. However, due in part, to a lack of reliable observations of precipitation in complex terrain, hydrological models struggle to assess and forecast snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE) in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). Therefore, the need for more reliable SWE forecasts in the UCRB motivated the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility’s Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) that occurred from June 2021 to June 2023. During SAIL, the X-band precipitation radar from Colorado State University conducted volume scans sampling the precipitation properties over the UCRB. The ARM facility developed a gridded Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) product from the radar observations. To do this, various daily SWE estimates from radar using the radar reflectivity factor Z e and specific differential phase K dp were compared against ground-based precipitation gauges. SWE in precipitation calculated from Wolfe and Snider’s S–Z e estimator was in best agreement with the rain gauges for the days when SWE < 12 mm. For days with SWE > 12 mm, the WSR-88D Intermountain West relationship had the best agreement with the precipitation gauges. Airborne snow depth observations show that SQUIRE captures regions of orographic enhancement in the mountains to the west and northwest of the SAIL study area, indicating that the scientific community should focus on understanding and ultimately simulating orographic atmospheric precipitation processes to improve UCRB snowpack SWE assessment and forecasting.

Hydrology↗

Impact of biochar amendments on soil water and plant uptake dynamics under different cropping systems

Abstract Application of biochar amendments in agricultural systems has received much attention in recent years. In this study, we assess the 5‐year impacts of biochar application on soil water and plant interactions for an irrigated fresh market tomato ( Solanum lycopersicum ) and a rainfed pasture ( Poaceae ) cropping system. In particular, we focus on three varieties of locally produced biochar from agricultural waste materials—almond shell, walnut shell, and almond pruning residues that are pyrolyzed using a mobile pyrolysis unit. We used the soil hydrological model HYDRUS‐1D to explicitly track seasonal and annual soil water fluxes through changes in water retention, drainage, evaporation, and plant water uptake under biochar application. Modeling results show that the application of biochar at 5% increased soil water availability within the top 20 cm for a rainfed system, irrespective of biochar amendment type. This is clearly indicative of higher plant water uptake and greater water use efficiency (WUE) under biochar application. In contrast, a similar biochar amendment for the irrigated system did not affect WUE, instead reducing seasonal soil evaporation loss and thereby reducing irrigation demand. In both cropping systems, year‐to‐year variability in precipitation significantly impacted the total amount of water saved under biochar application with certain amendments retaining more water than others. Given that biochar application increased water retention irrespective of cropping systems, we further used a simple approach to determine yield trade‐off, if any, between control and biochar treatments. Our economic balance clearly demonstrates that the water saved by amending soil with biochar does not offset the yield disparity if compensated with carbon credits and therefore, application of biochar should be actively considered for both its direct and indirect benefits to potential greenhouse gas mitigation (e.g., diverting orchard waste from open burning), water savings, and soil health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonality and trade in hydro-heavy electricity markets: A case study with the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP)

Hydroelectric power plants account for 25% of West Africa's total installed capacity. In general, electricity generated by these plants is seasonal and intra-annual fluctuation has a considerable impact on electricity supply and cross-border electricity trade. We soft-linked a global hydrologic model to a multi-region capacity expansion and planning model for the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) to examine the effects of seasonality in hydropower electricity generation on electricity trade, as well as the economic benefits of unconstrained cross-border electricity trade. We found that transitioning from rainy to dry season decreases hydroelectricity generation by an average of 40% in a normal year across the region. Between 2018 and 2050, satisfying the region's electricity demand will require significant capital investment; nevertheless, extending from current bilateral electricity trade agreements to a fully competitive cross-border electricity trade will result in net annual savings of $3 billion in 2015 USD. To achieve year-round energy security, countries should plan ahead and diversify their energy sources to ensure that supply reliability can be maintained in the case of lower supply during the dry season.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

HydroEcoLSTM: A Python package with graphical user interface for hydro-ecological modeling with long short-term memory neural network

Machine learning (ML) is emerging as a promising tool for modeling hydro-ecological processes due to the increasing availability of large environmental data. However, the use of ML requires sufficient programming knowledge due to a lack of a graphical user interface (GUI). In this study, we introduced a GUI package, named HydroEcoLSTM, with the long short-term memory network (LSTM) as the core model, that allows non-ML experts to utilize their domain knowledge to construct complex ML models. We demonstrated the functionalities of HydroEcoLSTM with two practical examples, including (1) predictions of streamflow in both gauged and ungauged catchments and (2) predictions of multiple outputs (i.e., streamflow and isotope transport from two catchments). The simulation results obtained in both case experiments are satisfactory. In the first example, the average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for streamflow simulation during the testing period is 0.79 while the application of the trained model in two assumed ungauged catchments also achieves the average NSE of 0.68. In the second example, the average NSE for streamflow and instream isotope simulation during the testing period is 0.71. Ultimately, applications of HydroEcoLSTM with real-world examples demonstrate its potential use for practical applications and research without requiring extensive coding skills.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Subsurface Flow on Evapotranspiration: A Global Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Water resources are impacted by water‐energy balance fluxes at the land surface, most notably evapotranspiration ( ET ), the largest component of surface energy balance. While integrated hydrologic models show promise in quantifying the nonlinear dynamics at this interface, the model results are plagued by parametric uncertainties. Given the high computational demand of running multiple parameter spaces of these models, little is known about how these uncertainties propagate into land surface processes. In this work, we perform a global sensitivity analysis by computing Sobol and AMAE indices using a surrogate model constructed with a polynomial chaos expansion to assess the impacts of the subsurface physical properties on ET . We do so by modeling a semisynthetic test case. Our results show that the effects of vertical hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and the water retention curve parameter Van Genuchten α mainly control ET . However, we note that while evaporation ( E ) shows behavior similar to the ET with high sensitivity to the parameters controlling the flow in the unsaturated zone, transpiration ( T ) is very sensitive to the saturated zone parameters and groundwater flow, especially during periods without rain. Our results also show that heterogeneities in land cover impact the flow in the saturated zone. Furthermore, our work demonstrates that reduced‐order models can be developed to make integrated models more accessible for rigorous sensitivity analyses and calibration purposes.

Maina, Fadji Zaouna↗

The Role of Groundwater Withdrawals on River Regulation: Example From the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) is heavily regulated by more than 250 dams on its river system while depending significantly on groundwater withdrawals in certain sub-basins. Neglecting groundwater withdrawals in hydrologic models of the basin could result in inaccurate predictions of its water budget and thus mislead water management decisions in the basin. This work aims to understand the impacts of groundwater pumping on the spatiotemporal patterns of modeling regulated streamflow in the CRB using a modified version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model integrated with a water management component that accounts for groundwater withdrawals, irrigation demands, and reservoir operation (VIC-GIRR). The VIC-GIRR simulations showed that considering additional groundwater withdrawals would alleviate the stress of irrigation water deficit in the Snake River Basin with an average reduction of 10 km 3 /year. Such a reduction in water deficit resulted in slight streamflow increase over the CRB with maximum increase up to 40% during dry period in certain locations. We also note that the implementation of groundwater withdrawal does not, however, improve the overall model performance in long-term averaged streamflow and storage predictions. Our results highlight the efforts needed to examine additional important processes in representing the interactions between water withdrawals and reservoir operations. Such efforts will aid in better simulation of multi-reservoir system and improve effectiveness for agricultural productivity, power generation, flood control, and navigation purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Abstract Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗