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DOE OSTI2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

James A Franke↗

NASA NTRS2014

Ecological Impacts of the Space Shuttle Program at John F. Kennedy Space Center, Florida

The Space Shuttle Program was one of NASAs first major undertakings to fall under the environmental impact analysis and documentation requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Space Shuttle Program activities at John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the associated Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) contributed directly and indirectly to both negative and positive ecological trends in the region through the long-term, stable expenditure of resources over the 40 year program life cycle. These expenditures provided support to regional growth and development in conjunction with other sources that altered land use patterns, eliminated and modified habitats, and contributed to cultural eutrophication of the Indian River Lagoon. At KSC, most Space Shuttle Program related actions were conducted in previously developed facilities and industrial areas with the exception of the construction of the shuttle landing facility (SLF) and the space station processing facility (SSPF). Launch and operations impacts were minimal as a result of the low annual launch rate. The majority of concerns identified during the NEPA process such as potential weather modification, acid rain off site, and local climate change did not occur. Launch impacts from deposition of HCl and particulates were assimilated as a result of the high buffering capacity of the system and low launch and loading rates. Metals deposition from exhaust deposition did not display acute impacts. Sub-lethal effects are being investigated as part of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) regulatory process. Major positive Space Shuttle Program effects were derived from the adequate resources available at the Center to implement the numerous environmental laws and regulations designed to enhance the quality of the environment and minimize impacts from human activities. This included reduced discharges of domestic and industrial wastewater, creation of stormwater management systems, remediation of past contamination sites, implementation of hazardous waste management systems, and creation of a culture of sustainability. Working with partners such as the USFWS and the St Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD), wetlands and scrub restoration and management initiatives were implemented to enhance fish and wildlife populations at the Center. KSC remains the single largest preserve on the east coast of Florida in part due to NASAs commitment to stewardship. Ongoing Ecological Program projects are directed at development of information and knowledge to address future KSC management questions including the transition to a joint government and commercial launch facility, enhanced habitat management requirements for wetlands and scrub, potential impacts of emerging contaminants, and adaptation to climate change including projected sea level rise over the next 50-75 years.

Space Shuttle Program↗

NASA NTRS1975

Quiet Clean Short-haul Experimental Engine (QCSEE) under-the-wing engine composite fan blade design

The design and analysis of a composite fan blade for the under the wing (UTW) QCSEE is presented. The blade is designed for a variable pitch, 18 bladed rotor and is constructed from a hybrid composite combination of materials consisting of Kevlar-49, type AS graphite, boron, and S-glass fibers in a PR288 epoxy resin matrix. The blade has an attached platform which is constructed of AS-graphite, PR288 epoxy resin matrix and aluminum honeycomb. The blade is designed to satisfy aerostability and cyclic life and strength requirements with a light weight construction. The attached platform is designed for a fail-safe condition in that it is retainable by the blade, under centrifugal force loading, even in the event of blade to platform bond separation. Details of the blade design and the results of stress, vibration, and impact analysis are included.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2022

Draft Methodology for Cybersecurity Analysis for Adoption of Wireless Technology in Nuclear Power Plants

The report is delivered as DOE-NE Cybersecurity Program Milestone M2CT-22IN1104014-Industry cybersecurity guidance adoption status. The milestone is specifically to document the process and the status of the efforts towards developing guidance in support of industry’s adoption of wireless communication technologies. To transform the operation of nuclear power plants, including domestic light-water reactors, advanced reactors, microreactors, and fission battery, for grid and non-grid applications, secure and resilient wireless capabilities are required. In addition, to realize new operational concepts such as autonomous operation and remote monitoring, advanced sensor, and instrumentation, wireless technology is essential. However, industry implementation is low, and there is no technical basis for how to understand and address potential risks for wireless communications for critical plant functions. A methodology with a technical basis for implementing secure wireless communication is crucial. This wireless adoption methodology is intended to assist a licensee in identifying an appropriate technological approach for securing wireless communications in nuclear power plant. However, this methodology does not provide guidance for addressing wireless design criteria or for addressing all the cybersecurity commitments in licensees’ cybersecurity plans (CSPs) including addressing security impact analysis that a licensee must perform before an update to a Critical Digital Asset (CDA). This methodology guides a licensee through a process of evaluating a proposed wireless implementation and drafting a plant change notification for an example use case. The example is a generic/nonproprietary version of the first test case of the methodology, which, if successfully implemented, is part of the consideration for protecting other functions’ use of wireless in a cybersecure manner.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensor Impact Evaluation at Different Sensor Locations in a Multi-zone Office Building

FY 2022 Q1 deliverables include the development of an emulator that can evaluate the sensor impacts at different sensor locations (i.e., thermostat locations) in a multizone office building. This report presents the detailed procedure of developing the emulator and using the emulator for preliminary sensor impact analysis. In designing new multizone buildings or retrofitting existing buildings, the room thermostat locations or subzoning design has been often determined by best practices without considering the effects of this design in terms of energy or thermal comfort. In subzoning design, the total number of thermostats is usually smaller than the total number of rooms. As a result, one thermostat in one room often controls the indoor temperature of several other adjacent rooms. For example, five zones might share one thermostat located in one of the zones. Because the demands for thermal load in different zones could be different for the multizone buildings, this subzoning design can compromise control performance and waste building energy consumption. Furthermore, for multizone buildings, subzoning could introduce thermal discomfort for zones. This issue has not be thoroughly investigated in simulation/field studies, and the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory explored the impacts of subzoning design through modeling and experimental study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Micromobility Integrated Transit and Infrastructure for Efficiency (MITIE)

Nearly omnipresent in many cities of all sizes across the United States, micromobility vehicles-e-scooters, manual bicycles, e-bicycles, and larger seated electric scooters-are notably missing from SMART Mobility research. This project aims to expand the spectrum of modes currently being researched within SMART Mobility by exploring micromobility as an important tool toward meeting energy-efficient mobility goals. It expands on findings from SMART Mobility 1.0 that revealed preferences to reduce transportation-related expenses through use of a network of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) and other shared mobility options, and builds on findings from a 2019 Vehicle Technology Analysis Program (VTAP) funded micromobility project conducted by our team. We will explore multiple facets of micromobility, including behavior and decision-making, the integration of micromobility within transportation infrastructure, energy estimates, and operations. Guiding research questions include: (1) What are the potential energy savings from low, medium, and high market penetration of micromobility (in passenger, multimodal, and freight domains)? (2) Which scenarios for micromobility use and related enablement of increased public transit use should be modeled/considered in the SMART 2.0 Workflow? (3) To what degree can micromobility supplement/complement transit system operations? (4) What are people's preferences towards micromobility? How do preferences vary across various sociodemographic segments? How can this knowledge inform operations? (5) What are optimal strategies to attain high user adoption and shift users toward more energy-efficient mode choices in terms of micromobility operation? How do these strategies affect energy savings, person-miles traveled, lifecycle energy use, and adoption rates? These questions will be addressed through applied research in five project emphasis areas: (1) Energy estimates of micromobility for Workflow scenarios: Expand and refine previous micromobility work to augment the Workflow approaches to modeling urban travel. (2) Multimodal connection with transit: Utilizing Mobility-Energy Productivity (MEP) tools to evaluate multimodal travel patterns enabled by micromobility, including assessing how to reduce barriers of inequity of access to mobility options and destinations. (3) Mode choice, induced demand, and infrastructure: Understanding the mode shift induced through micromobility to inform energy impact analysis. (4) Energy optimization of micromobility operations: Identification of micromobility operations parameters and development of operations scenarios to better understand present-day micromobility operations for integration into the Workflow, in partnership with BEAM and POLARIS modeling teams. (5) Micro-freight: Characterize the current state of micro-freight activities, including energy effects and geospatial analyses, to inform Workflow.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Micromobility Integrated Transit and Infrastructure for Efficiency (MITIE)

Nearly omnipresent in many cities of all sizes across the United States, micromobility vehicles-e-scooters, manual bicycles, e-bicycles, and larger seated electric scooters-are notably missing from SMART Mobility research. This project aims to expand the spectrum of modes currently being researched within SMART Mobility by exploring micromobility as an important tool toward meeting energy-efficient mobility goals. It expands on findings from SMART Mobility 1.0 that revealed preferences to reduce transportation-related expenses through use of a network of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) and other shared mobility options, and builds on findings from a 2019 Vehicle Technology Analysis Program (VTAP) funded micromobility project conducted by our team. We will explore multiple facets of micromobility, including behavior and decision-making, the integration of micromobility within transportation infrastructure, energy estimates, and operations. Guiding research questions include: 1) what are the potential energy savings from low, medium, and high market penetration of micromobility (in passenger, multimodal, and freight domains)? 2) which scenarios for micromobility use and related enablement of increased public transit use should be modeled/considered in the SMART 2.0 Workflow? 3) to what degree can micromobility supplement/complement transit system operations? 4) what are people's preferences towards micromobility? How do preferences vary across various sociodemographic segments? How can this knowledge inform operations? 5) what are optimal strategies to attain high user adoption and shift users toward more energy-efficient mode choices in terms of micromobility operation? How do these strategies affect energy savings, person-miles traveled, lifecycle energy use, and adoption rates? These questions will be addressed through applied research in five project emphasis areas: 1) energy estimates of micromobility for Workflow scenarios: Expand and refine previous micromobility work to augment the Workflow approaches to modeling urban travel; 2) multimodal connection with transit: Utilizing Mobility-Energy Productivity (MEP) tools to evaluate multimodal travel patterns enabled by micromobility, including assessing how to reduce barriers of inequity of access to mobility options and destinations; 3) mode choice, induced demand, and infrastructure: Understanding the mode shift induced through micromobility to inform energy impact analysis; 4) energy optimization of micromobility operations: Identification of micromobility operations parameters and development of operations scenarios to better understand present-day micromobility operations for integration into the Workflow, in partnership with BEAM and POLARIS modeling teams; 5) micro-freight: Characterize the current state of micro-freight activities, including energy effects and geospatial analyses, to inform Workflow.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Impact of domain analysis on reuse methods

The SPS is performing a study for the U.S. Army CECOM on the impact of domain analysis on reuse methods. Domain analysis is the first activity that should be performed in the development of reusable software. It identifies the commonalities between systems within a given problem (such as navigation systems or database management). In the software arena these commonalities are implemented as software components that can be reused by new systems within that application domain. The objectives of the study are to develop an approach that makes domain analysis practical and effective for the Army, to reinforce the importance of domain analysis for software reuse programs, and to summarize and coalesce domain analysis information into a single reference source. Existing methods and tools are being analyzed, critical issues identified, and key automation issues addressed. Based on these, a methodology and set of guidelines for domain analysis are being developed. Potential automated tools will be identified for each activity in the methodology.

Gilroy, Kathy↗

NASA NTRS1992

SIMS chemical analysis of extended impacts on the leading and trailing edges of LDEF experiment AO187-2

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) Experiment AO187-2 consisted of 237 capture cells, 120 on the leading edge and 117 on the trailing edge. Each cell was made of polished Ge plates covered with 2.5 micron thick mylar foil at 200 microns from the Ge. Although all leading edge cells and 105 trailing edge cells had lost their plastic covers during flight, optical and electron microscope examination revealed extended impacts in bare cells from either edge that apparently were produced by high velocity projectiles while the plastic foils were still in place. Detailed optical scanning yielded 53 extended impacts on 100 bare cells from the trailing edge that were selected for SIMS chemical analysis. Lateral multi-element ion probe profiles were obtained on 40 of these impacts. Material that can be attributed to the incoming projectiles was found in all analyzed extended compact features and most seem to be associated with cosmic dust particles. However, LDEF deposits are systematically enriched in the refractory elements Al, Ca, and Ti relative to Mg and Fe when compared to IDP's collected in the stratosphere and to chondritic compositions. These differences are most likely due to elemental fractionation effects during the high velocity impact but real differences between interplanetary particles captured on LDEF and stratospheric IDP's cannot be excluded. Recently we extended our studies to cells from the leading edge and the covered cells from the trailing edge. The 12 covered cells contain 20 extended impact candidates. Ion probe analysis of 3 yielded results similar to those obtained for impacts on the bare cells from the trailing edge. Optical scanning of the bare leading edge cell also reveals many extended impacts (42 on 22 cells scanned to date), demonstrating that the cover foils remained intact at least for some time. However, SIMS analysis showed elements that can reasonably be attributed to micrometeoroids in only 2 out of 11 impacts. Eight impacts have residues dominated by Al and one dominated by Ti, indicating a preponderance of orbital debris in leading edge impacts.

Amari, S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy-efficient multimodal mobility networks in transportation digital twins: Strategies and optimization

The study proposes a comprehensive Transportation Mobility (TransitMo) framework covering conceptual design, model formulation, optimization, simulation, and impact analysis of the transportation mobility system. TransitMo is composed of a transportation digital twin developed in Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) and an Intelligent Traffic Management and Control Center (ITMCC) that identifies the best ways to improve the movement of people within urban areas using various modes of transportation. This study encompasses advanced modeling techniques, algorithms, and strategic testing to optimize energy efficiency and mobility in a multimodal shared mobility network. TransitMo’s practical applications are exemplified through a city-scaled simulation network in Chattanooga, TN, employing demographic data to analyze historical traffic patterns and forecast future demands. Central to this methodology are three models: the User Preference Model (UP), the Energy Consumption Model (EC), and the System Optimization Model (SO). These models work in concert to iteratively devise the optimal travel incentives and minimize the total system cost in a real-time manner. In conclusion, test results verified that the proposed adaptive incentive program and optimized bus scheduling can improve network performance by increasing public transit ridership.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Study of a High-speed Outer Rotor Burst Containing Enclosure

The increasing demand for high-speed electric machines in many applications pushes the development of high-power density electric motors. Outer rotor motors, which can be designed with a larger airgap diameter than inner rotor motors for the same overall diameter and, therefore, provide higher torque, distinguish themselves in space-constrained but high torque applications. However, increasing the motor speed and diameter results in significant centrifugal loads for the outer rotor motor due to its higher airgap diameter. Additional attention must be paid at the design stage to consider the extreme situation of possible mechanical failure, such as the sudden burst of the high-speed rotating parts in the motor, and measures must be taken to prevent their damage to other system components in advance. Through the finite element dynamic impact analysis, we studied the damage caused by broken parts on the inner wall of the electric motor housing when the motor rotates at 20,000 RPM. The proposed method is expected to provide reasonable recommendations of the enclosure material and its thickness required to protect other components in the same powertrain system when the high-power density motor fails unexpectedly.

Lin, Lianshan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decision Support System

Forest-based value chains involve decisions that begin at the landscape level and extend through processing, product manufacturing, and end-use markets. However, these decisions are often made independently across sectors, with limited visibility into how upstream resource conditions, incentives, and land management choices influence downstream production systems. In forested regions of the United States, wildfire risk, fragmented ownership, and uncertain markets for low-value residues complicate efforts to align extraction, processing, and utilization decisions. Without tools that link these stages, stakeholders may overlook opportunities to improve resource utilization or inadvertently shift impacts elsewhere in the value chain. This repository introduces a decision support system (DSS) that applies a system-impact-analysis approach to forest biomass residues and co-products. The framework integrates forest inventory data, geospatial resource assessments, and economic modeling to evaluate how biomass extraction decisions influence downstream product pathways. By linking regional feedstock avail- ability with market incentives and processing options—such as fuels, wood products, or soil amendments like biochar—the tool allows decision-makers to compare value chain outcomes across multiple utilization strategies.

Davis, Maggie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2021

Medium and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - Load Operations and Deployment (HEVI-LOAD) v1.0

In order to support the California state goals to reduce the carbon and pollution emissions (AB2127), The goal of this project (HEVI-Pro) is to project the charging infrastructure needs by future medium- and heavy- duty electric vehicles, and assess optimal deployment the infrastructure in California and provide grid impacts analysis. The MHDV projections will also consider transportation system and electric system interaction with light duty vehicles. The project consists of 2 approaches in general: top-down approach that takes aggregated MHDV adoptions as the inputs and provide the county-level projections of charging load profile and infrastructure need, and the bottom-up approach that that incorporates more granular (temporal, spatial and duty-cycle-specific) behaviors of a variety of MHDVs into activity simulations/optimizations for further analysis.

Wang, Bin↗

DOE OSTI2021

System Calibration Including Time Delay Estimation for GNSS/INS-Assisted Pushbroom Scanners Onboard UAV Platforms

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs ) equipped with imaging sensors and integrated global navigation satellite system/inertial navigation system (GNSS/INS ) units are used for numerous applications. Deriving reliable 3D coordinates from such UAVs is contingent on accurate geometric calibration, which encompasses the estimation of mounting parameters and synchronization errors. Through a rigorous impact analysis of such systematic errors, this article proposes a direct approach for spatial and temporal calibration (estimating system parameters through a bundle adjustment procedure) of a GNSS/INS -assisted pushbroom scanner onboard a UAV platform. The calibration results show that the horizontal and vertical accuracies are within the ground sampling distance of the sensor. Unlike for frame camera systems, this article also shows that the indirect approach is not a feasible solution for pushbroom scanners due to their limited ability for decoupling system parameters. This finding provides further support that the direct approach is recommended for spatial and temporal calibration of UAV pushbroom scanner systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

elci-scenario-modeler

A GitHub repository hosting the Python package, grid_mixer, designated for creating the link between the electricity baseline and scenarios for impact analysis.

Electric Generation and Transmission↗

DOE OSTI2020

Preparing Distribution Utilities for Utility-Scale Storage and Electric Vehicles: A Novel Analytical Framework

Emerging distributed energy resources (DERs)—such as solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and electric vehicles (EVs)—are expected to increase substantially in India in the coming years following policy-driven targets of the Government of India to modernize its electricity system, reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), and improve air quality. These emerging technologies can pose challenges to distribution utilities, forcing overhauls in planning and operational practices. They can also create challenges in power system infrastructure planning and cause more frequent system operational violations (e.g., network voltage bounds and loading thresholds) if not properly integrated. The impacts on the localized power distribution grid from these emerging technologies manifest in increased infrastructure investments and erratic shifts in demand patterns. These impacts are not yet well understood, and analytic solutions are not readily available. To address these challenges, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with BSES Rajdhani Power Ltd. (BRPL), developed an advanced power distribution system impact analysis framework of BRPL’s distribution system. This framework helps analyze the readiness of the power distribution network to accommodate emerging technologies and the potential opportunities they might introduce. The framework has been predominantly set up to evaluate distributed PV, BESS, and EVs. In this collaboration between NREL and BRPL, we developed and evaluated the framework on two distribution feeders in the BRPL territory for various scenarios of BESS and EVs. BESS are evaluated for their effectiveness on the grid to mitigate present and future feeder overloading scenarios, and they are subsequently analyzed for their costs compared to the costs of traditional upgradation measures. Scenarios include assessing the effects of EV density on grid infrastructure upgrades and interlinking EV management with BESS integration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗