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At least 235 records · Page 13

Source attribution of near-surface ozone pollution in Jiangsu Province of China over 2013–2019

Near-surface ozone (O3) is one of the most severe air pollutants in China, particularly over densely populated Jiangsu Province in the Yangtze River Delta. In this study, an O3 source tagging technique is utilized in a chemistry-climate model to quantify the source contributions of various emission sectors and regions for nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to O3 concentrations in Jiangsu Province during 2013–2019. The results show that the near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province is mainly contributed by surrounding and remote anthropogenic NOx emissions through long-range transport. Local anthropogenic NOx emissions account for only 13 % and 18 % of the annual and summertime mean near-surface O3 in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Anthropogenic NOx emissions from the surface transportation, industry, and energy sectors account for 21 %, 22 % and 20 % of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu Province, respectively. Biogenic and anthropogenic VOCs emissions each explains one-third of the annual mean near-surface O3 concentration in Jiangsu, while methane and stratospheric chemical production contribute 21 % and 6 %, respectively. The sources from stratospheric production, aircraft, lightning, and foreign emissions are the primary contributors to O3 in the mid- and high troposphere. During high pollution days in Jiangsu Province, the near-surface O3 concentrations increase with the maximum exceeding 20 ppb, which is attributed to both the enhanced photochemical production and regional transport in favorable meteorological conditions.

ozone pollution↗

A Sparse and Low Rank Penalized Signal Decomposition Model with Constraints: Anomaly Detection in PV Systems

Recently, robust PCA has seen its wide application in various industries for its ability to perform the task of anomaly detection. The essence of robust PCA approach is to break down the signal into a low rank component and sparse component. In many applications, a simple breakdown of the signal without accounting for the signs of low rank components and sparse components would violate the physical constraints of the decomposed signal. In addition, often times, the signals in the real world collected for a long duration has smooth changes within a day and between days. As an example, the power signals collected in a photovoltaic (PV) system are cyclostationary, exhibiting these characteristics. Neglecting the smoothness of signals would result in miss detection of anomalous signals which are smooth within a day but non-smooth between days and vice versa. In this paper, we developed a signal decomposition approach for the purpose of anomaly detection based on the idea of low rank and sparse decomposition taking into consideration the signs of the decomposed low rank and sparse components and the within-day and between-day smooth changes in the original signals. The proposed unsupervised approach for fault detection eliminates the need for faulty samples required by other machine learning methods. It does not require the full I-V characteristics to work. Furthermore, there is no need for complex modelling of PV systems as in the case of power loss analysis. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate the ability of our proposed approach for detecting anomalies of different duration and severity in PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment

Abstract. The timing of sea ice retreat and advance in Arctic coastal waters varies substantially from year to year. Various activities, ranging from marine transport to the use of sea ice as a platform for industrial activity or winter travel, are affected by variations in the timing of breakup and freeze-up, resulting in a need for indicators to document the regional and temporal variations in coastal areas. The primary objective of this study is to use locally based metrics to construct indicators of breakup and freeze-up in the Arctic and subarctic coastal environment. The indicators developed here are based on daily sea ice concentrations derived from satellite passive-microwave measurements. The “day of year” indicators are designed to optimize value for users while building on past studies characterizing breakup and freeze-up dates in the open pack ice. Relative to indicators for broader adjacent seas, the coastal indicators generally show later breakup at sites known to have landfast ice. The coastal indicators also show earlier freeze-up at some sites in comparison with freeze-up for broader offshore regions, likely tied to earlier freezing of shallow-water regions and areas affected by freshwater input from nearby streams and rivers. A factor analysis performed to synthesize the local indicator variations shows that the local breakup and freeze-up indicators have greater spatial variability than corresponding metrics based on regional ice coverage. However, the trends towards earlier breakup and later freeze-up are unmistakable over the post-1979 period in the synthesized metrics of coastal breakup and freeze-up and the corresponding regional ice coverage. The findings imply that locally defined indicators can serve as key links between pan-Arctic or global indicators such as sea ice extent or volume and local uses of sea ice, with the potential to inform community-scale adaptation and response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trace explosive residue detection of HMX and RDX in post-detonation dust from an open-air environment

Explosives are often used in industry, geology, mining, and other applications, but it is not always clear what remains after a detonation or the fate and transport of any residual material. The goal of this study was to determine to what extent intact molecules of high explosive (HE) compounds are detectable and quantifiable from post-detonation dust and particulates in a field experiment with varied topography. We focused on HMX (1,3,5,7-Tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane), which is less studied in field detonation literature, as the primary explosive material and RDX (1,3,5-Trinitroperhydro-1,3,5-triazine) as the secondary material. The experiment was conducted at Site 300, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Experimental Test Site, in California, USA. Two 20.4 kg and one 40.8 kg above ground explosions (primarily comprised of LX-14, an HMX-based polymer-bonded high explosive) were detonated on an open-air firing area on separate days. The complex terrain of the firing area (e.g., buildings, berm, low-height obstacles) was advantageous to study HE deposition in relation to plume dynamics. Three types of samples were collected up to 100 m away from each shot: surface swipes of aluminum plates, surface swipes of fixed objects, and filters from air samples. We used atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS) to quantify picogram levels of molecular residue of HE material in the post-detonation dust. An aliquot of sample extract in methanol (e.g., 1 µL of 0.5 mL) was placed onto a resistive material and then thermally desorbed into the AFT-MS. We successfully detected and quantified both HMX and RDX in many of the samples. Based on mass (pg) detected and solution dilution, we back-calculated the mass collected on the swipe or filter (ng per sample). The aerial distribution of molecular residue was consistent with the path of the plume, which was strongly determined by wind speed and direction at the time of each shot. The quantity of material detected appeared to correlate more with distance from the shot and the wind conditions than with shot size. This study demonstrates that the picogram detection levels of AFT-MS are well-suited for quantification of analytes (e.g., HMX and RDX) in environmental samples.

atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS), ↗

Deletion of E184L, a Putative DIVA Target from the Pandemic Strain of African Swine Fever Virus, Produces a Reduction in Virulence and Protection against Virulent Challenge

African swine fever (ASF) is currently causing a major pandemic affecting the swine industry and protein availability from Central Europe to East and South Asia. No commercial vaccines are available, making disease control dependent on the elimination of affected animals. Here, we show that the deletion of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) E184L gene from the highly virulent ASFV Georgia 2010 (ASFV-G) isolate produces a reduction in virus virulence during the infection in swine. Of domestic pigs intramuscularly inoculated with a recombinant virus lacking the E184L gene (ASFV-GDE184L), 40% experienced a significantly (5 days) delayed presentation of clinical disease and, overall, had a 60% rate of survival compared to animals inoculated with the virulent parental ASFV-G. Importantly, all animals surviving ASFV-G-DE184L infection developed a strong antibody response and were protected when challenged with ASFV-G. As expected, a pool of sera from ASFV-G-DE184L-inoculated animals lacked any detectable antibody response to peptides partially representing the E184L protein, while sera from animals inoculated with an efficacious vaccine candidate, ASFV-GDMGF, strongly recognize the same set of peptides. These results support the potential use of the E184L deletion for the development of vaccines able to differentiate infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA). Therefore, it is shown here that the E184L gene is a novel ASFV determinant of virulence that can potentially be used to increase safety in preexisting vaccine candidates, as well as to provide them with DIVA capabilities. To our knowledge, E184L is the first ASFV gene product experimentally shown to be a functional DIVA antigenic marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction

The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Cement Decarbonization Techniques: Oxygen Enrichment vs. Hydrogen Fuel

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming, and one of the most polluting sectors is heavy industry, where cement production is a significant contributor. This work briefly explores some alternatives, recycling, reducing clinker content, waste heat recovery, and carbon capture, discussing their advantages and drawbacks. Then, it examines the economic viability and benefits of increasing oxygen concentration in the primary burning air from 21 to 27 vol.%, which could improve clinker production by 7%, and the production of hydrogen through PEM electrolysis to make up 5% of the fuel thermal fraction, considering both in a cement plant producing 3000 tons of clinker per day. This analysis used reference values from Secil, an international company for cement and building materials, to determine the required scale of the oxygen and hydrogen production, respectively, and calculate the CAPEX of each approach. It is concluded that oxygen enrichment can provide substantial fuel savings for a relatively low cost despite a possible significant increase in NOx emissions. However, hydrogen production at this scale is not currently economically viable.

Domingues, Bruno C.↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Ryuk Ransomware Attack on Universal Health Services 2020

The Ryuk Ransomware Attack on Universal Health Services (UHS) 2020 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the 2020 UHS cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. UHS manages over 400 hospitals and is one of the largest healthcare providers in the United States with 3.5 million patients each year. On 27 September 2020, UHS suffered a widespread ransomware attack that resulted in a denial of service to critical internet-dependent healthcare systems including workstations, phones, and data centers. Employees resorted to filing patient details with pen and paper, while other facilities had to redirect ambulances and urgent patients to other facilities for adequate care. Adversaries carried out the attack with Ryuk, a ransomware that encrypts data and generates a RyukReadMe.txt ransom note with the ransom fee to decrypt the data, varying from 15 Bitcoin (BTC) to 50 BTC, equivalent to roughly $\$$353,892 to $\$$964,617. UHS did not pay the ransom and was able to recover data through backups, but still reported an impact of $\$$67 million dollars in recovery costs. On 29 October, one month after the attack, UHS made an official statement that their systems had been restored and they were resuming normal operations. Researchers and analysts identified 18 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 19 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 185 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Fourteen of the identified techniques used during the UHS cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 106 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 82 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 30 days to two hours preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

Abstract The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precursor Analysis Report: SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003

The SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about Davis-Besse’s 2003 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 25 January 2003, the SQL Slammer worm infected more than 90% of vulnerable hosts and crashed the internet in 10 to 15 minutes, making it one of the fastest spreading worms in history. SQL Slammer is a fileless, memory-resident worm that remotely exploits a stack-based buffer overflow vulnerability on local hosts to intensively scan and rapidly self-propagate across the internet. The worm infected approximately 300,000 unpatched hosts running Microsoft Structured Query Language (SQL) Server 2000 or Microsoft Desktop Engine (MSDE) 2000 with SQL Server Resolution Service. The SQL Slammer worm indirectly infected FirstEnergy’s Davis-Besse nuclear power plant by first infecting a consultant’s company network server and then propagating through an external misconfigured connection into Davis-Besse’s site network. The infection caused major network congestion, slow performance, data overloads, and the inability of local hosts to communicate with each other, which eventually caused a loss of availability and a loss of view when the Safety Parameter Display System (SPDS) and Plant Process Computer (PPC) crashed. At the time of the infection, the plant was already offline, the digital monitoring systems had redundant analog backups, and the plant control and safety functions were not affected, so there were no concerns of a safety breach. However, this incident resulted in many lessons learned and spawned important discussions about cybersecurity’s role in nuclear safety and electric power reliability regulation, policy, and guidance. Researchers and analysts identified 10 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 640 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Eight of the identified techniques used during Davis-Besse cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 596 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 428 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 331 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016

The Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the December 2016 cyber attack against the Ukrainian Ukrenergo electric transmission utility and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. Industroyer is a modular malware framework designed to deploy several Industrial Control System (ICS) protocol-specific attack payloads to disrupt electricity distribution. Adversaries deployed Industroyer within the target network on a Microsoft Windows endpoint capable of directly manipulating or communicating with ICS. Industroyer abuses the functionality of a targeted ICS’s legitimate control system to achieve its intended impact. Adversaries likely first gained access to Ukrenergo enterprise networks in early 2016 after a successful spearphishing campaign against organizations in the electric power sector. Adversaries then began capturing credentials beginning on 1 December 2016. This allowed access to the ICS environment at the Pivnichna electric transmission substation outside Kyiv through a device dual-homed on the Information Technology (IT) and ICS networks. Adversaries conducted discovery, targeting, and access to this device using information and previously captured credentials from compromised enterprise IT machines. Finally, the adversaries deployed and launched the Industroyer malware just before midnight on 17 December. By midnight, Ukrenergo had lost control of a targeted substation, resulting in electric power outages for over an hour in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Researchers and analysts identified 31 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 33 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 846 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-nine of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 548 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 353 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 300 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Roadmap Toward a Sustainable Aviation Ecosystem

This report outlines a holistic view of pathways to a sustainable aviation ecosystem, focusing on low-net-carbon aircraft energy carriers (fuels), airport ecosystems (airports and bases), and developments in sustainable aircraft components (aircraft). Taking this holistic ecosystem perspective, we identify critical components that contribute to sustainable energy solutions necessary to achieve deep decarbonization of the aviation industry, as well as the integrated energy system interfaces that must be comprehensively understood, planned for, and realized. Further, we outline necessary R&D needs to achieve sustainability across the aviation ecosystem, including advancing breakthrough innovations to rapidly achieve scalable solutions, with attention to their cross-sectoral dependencies and implications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive of Ireland 2021

The Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive (HSE) of Ireland 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed by the adversary. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The HSE provides public healthcare corporate services and operational services throughout Ireland, with critical functions including the acute national ambulance service, acute hospital service, and community healthcare service. On 14 May 2021, Conti ransomware encrypted 80 percent of the HSE’s Information Technology (IT) infrastructure across corporate, hospital, community, and electronic health record services. Conti is a ransomware-as-a-service operation that encrypts local files, uses double extortion against victims, and is facilitated by many intrusion tools. The attack forced the HSE to shut down its entire IT infrastructure to contain the ransomware, forcing employees to revert to pen and paper recordkeeping and leading to the cancellation of many appointments and procedures. The adversary also exfiltrated 700 GB of data, compromising the confidentiality of patients’ protected health information. Had the adversary targeted the COVID-19 cloud systems or operational technology assets, such as Internet of Medical Things medical devices or smart building management systems, the impact of the attack would almost certainly have been far more severe. Researchers and analysts identified 21 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 23 steps) likely utilized during the attack with a total of 1,185 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-one of the identified techniques used during the attack on the HSE were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 1,086 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 850 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 57 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Deletion of the A137R Gene from the Pandemic Strain of African Swine Fever Virus Attenuates the Strain and Offers Protection against the Virulent Pandemic Virus

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is causing a devastating pandemic in domestic and wild swine within an extended geographical area from Central Europe to East Asia, resulting in economic losses for the regional swine industry. There are no commercial vaccines; therefore, disease control relies on identification and culling of infected animals. We report here that the deletion of the ASFV gene A137R from the highly virulent ASFV-Georgia2010 (ASFV-G) isolate induces a significant attenuation of virus virulence in swine. A recombinant virus lacking the A137R gene, ASFV-G-DA137R, was developed to assess the role of this gene in ASFV virulence in domestic swine. Animals inoculated intramuscularly with 102 50% hemadsorption doses (HAD50) of ASFV-G-DA137R remained clinically healthy during the 28-day observational period. All animals inoculated with ASFV-G-DA137R had medium to high viremia titers and developed a strong virus-specific antibody response. Importantly, all ASFV-G-DA137Rinoculated animals were protected when challenged with the virulent parental strain ASFV-G. No evidence of replication of challenge virus was observed in the ASFV-GDA137R-inoculated animals. Therefore, ASFV-G-DA137R is a novel potential live attenuated vaccine candidate and one of the few experimental vaccine strains reported to induce protection against the highly virulent ASFV Georgia virus that is the cause of the current Eurasian pandemic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable and Resilient Etched Metallic Micro- and Nanostructured Surfaces for Enhanced Flow Boiling

Flow boiling and evaporation in tubes and channels occur in a wide variety of energy systems, such as refrigeration, air conditioning, power generation, electronics cooling, distillation, and purification. In this work, we demonstrate remarkably increased heat transfer coefficients of 270% during refrigerant flow boiling in scalable microstructured (~40 µm), industrial-scale (~1 m long) aluminum (Al) tubes, when compared to smooth unstructured Al tubes. To achieve scalable nanomanufacturing, we create highly conformal and durable structured surfaces by relying on hydrochloric acid Al etching. Flow boiling tests were conducted in 6.35 mm diameter Al tubes using R134a refrigerant as the working fluid. To benchmark our approach and to elucidate the effect of the structure length scale, we also fabricated ultrascalable boehmite (AlO(OH)) nanostructured (~300 nm) Al tubes, showing that etched microscale features are necessary and key to enhancement. Durability tests conducted using a 28 day long continual flow boiling experiment demonstrated negligible degradation of the etched surfaces. The scalable and cost-effective techniques used to create these durable, etched-Al microstructures may significantly reduce manufacturing cost when contrasted with current enhancement approaches such as extrusion, drawing, and welding.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cyanobacterial circadian regulation enhances bioproduction under subjective nighttime through rewiring of carbon partitioning dynamics, redox balance orchestration, and cell cycle modulation

Abstract Background The industrial feasibility of photosynthetic bioproduction using cyanobacterial platforms remains challenging due to insufficient yields, particularly due to competition between product formation and cellular carbon demands across different temporal phases of growth. This study investigates how circadian clock regulation impacts carbon partitioning between storage, growth, and product synthesis in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942, and provides insights that suggest potential strategies for enhanced bioproduction. Results After entrainment to light-dark cycles, PCC 7942 cultures transitioned to constant light revealed distinct temporal patterns in sucrose production, exhibiting three-fold higher productivity during subjective night compared to subjective day despite moderate down-regulation of genes from the photosynthetic apparatus. This enhanced productivity coincided with reduced glycogen accumulation and halted cell division at subjective night time, suggesting temporal separation of competing processes. Transcriptome analysis revealed coordinated circadian clock-driven adjustment of the cell cycle and rewiring of energy and carbon metabolism, with over 300 genes showing differential expression across four time points. The subjective night was characterized by altered expression of cell division-related genes and reduced expression of genes involved in glycogen synthesis, while showing upregulation of glycogen degradation pathways, alternative electron flow components, the pentose phosphate pathway, and oxidative decarboxylation of pyruvate. These molecular changes created favorable conditions for product formation through enhanced availability of major sucrose precursors (glucose-1-phosphate and fructose-6-phosphate) and maintained redox balance through multiple mechanisms. Conclusions Our analysis of circadian regulatory rewiring of carbon metabolism and redox balancing suggests two potential approaches that could be developed for improving cyanobacterial bioproduction: leveraging natural circadian rhythms for optimizing cultivation conditions and timing of pathway induction, and engineering strains that mimic circadian-driven metabolic shifts through controlled carbon flux redistribution and redox rebalancing. While these strategies remain to be tested, they could theoretically improve the efficiency of photosynthetic bioproduction by enabling better temporal separation between cell growth, carbon storage accumulation, and product synthesis phases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗