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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Problems associated with testing accelerometers to an accuracy where the standard error is less than .0000001 g are centered around the elimination of uncertainties in the acceleration input to the accelerometer. By placing a test rig in free fall, the uncertainty in the earths gravity field can be eliminated.
The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterizaton and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. For the characterization of uncertainties, Bayesian inference tools are provided to infer uncertain model parameters, as well as Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, and also Karhunen-Loève expansions for representing stochastic processes. Uncertain parameters are treated as random variables and represented with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). The library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).
This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.
The quantification of model uncertainty is becoming increasingly important as robust control is an important tool for control system design and analysis. This paper presents an algorithm that effectively characterizes the model uncertainty in terms of parametric and nonparametric uncertainties. The algorithm utilizes the frequency domain model error which is estimated from the spectra of output error and input data. The parametric uncertainty is represented as an interval transfer function while the nonparametric uncertainty is bounded by a designed error bound transfer function. Both discrete and continuous systems are discussed in this paper. The algorithm is applied to the Mini-Mast example, and the detail analysis is given.
In situ measurements of stratospheric ozone and laboratory studies of ozone production in electric discharge through oxygen have shown previously that ozone containing heavy isotopes of oxygen (O-17, O-18) may be formed preferentially. In order to assess the relevance of thee latter experiment to the stratospheric measurements, detailed understanding of the effect of isotopic substitution on the O3 formation reaction O + O2 + M yields O3 + M and on the O atom exchange reaction O + O2 + O yields O2 + O is necessary. In this work, an estimate of the effect of isotopic substitution on the recombination rate is made by us of approximate dynamical theories and statistical mechanics. The results indicate the possibility of isotope effects on the O + O2 recombination rate of the order of several percent at stratospheric temperatures. In general, recombination reactions involving heavy (mass 49, 50) O3 formation are found to be slower than the reaction leading to normal (mass 48) O3 formation. The calculated isotope effects are sufficiently small that the uncertainties in the model input and the approximations in the dynamical theories will probably make the quantitative nature of these results subject to considerable uncertainty. This isotope effect should not be observable in the atmosphere given the precision of the current measurements but may be crucial in the understanding of the laboratory experiments, where observed enhancements are only of the order of several percent. Possible reasons for this discrepancy between the observed enhancement and predicted depletion are presented.
Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.
For a track based polarimeter, such as the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), the sensitivity to polarization depends on the modulation factor, which is a strong function of energy. In previous work, a likelihood method was developed that would account for this variation in order to estimate the minimum detectable polarization (MDP). That method essentially required that the position angles of individual events should be known precisely. In a separate work, however, it was shown that using a machine-learning method for measuring event tracks can generate track angle uncertainties, which can be used in the analysis. Here, the maximum likelihood method is used as a basis for revising the estimate of the MDP in a general way that can include uncertainties in event track position angles. The resultant MDP depends solely upon the distribution of track angle uncertainties present in the input data. Due to the physics of the IXPE detectors, it is possible to derive a simple relationship between these angular uncertainties and the energy-dependent modulation function as a step in the process.
Monte Carlo methods can be used to evaluate the uncertainty of a reaction rate that arises from many uncertain nuclear inputs. However, until now no attempt has been made to find the effect of correlated energy uncertainties in input resonance parameters. Our goal is to investigate the impact of correlated resonance energy uncertainties on reaction rates. Using a combination of numerical and Monte Carlo variation of resonance energies, the effect of correlations are investigated. Five reactions are considered: two fictional, illustrative cases and three reactions whose rates are of current interest. The effect of correlations in resonance energies depends on the specific reaction cross section and temperatures considered. When several resonances contribute equally to a reaction rate, and when they are located on either side of the Gamow peak, correlations between their energies dilute their effect on reaction rate uncertainties. If they are both located above or below the maximum of the Gamow peak, however, correlations between their resonance energies can increase the reaction rate uncertainties. This effect can be hard to predict for complex reactions with wide and narrow resonances contributing to the reaction rate.
Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.
The 2013-2022 Decaedal survey for planetary exploration has identified probe missions to Uranus and Saturn as high priorities. This work endeavors to examine the uncertainty for determining aeroheating in such entry environments. Representative entry trajectories are constructed using the TRAJ software. Flowfields at selected points on the trajectories are then computed using the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) Computational Fluid Dynamics Code. A Monte Carlo study is performed on the DPLR input parameters to determine the uncertainty in the predicted aeroheating, and correlation coefficients are examined to identify which input parameters show the most influence on the uncertainty. A review of the present best practices for input parameters (e.g. transport coefficient and vibrational relaxation time) is also conducted. It is found that the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for heating on Uranus entry is no more than 2.1%, assuming an equilibrium catalytic wall, with the uncertainty being determined primarily by diffusion and H(sub 2) recombination rate within the boundary layer. However, if the wall is assumed to be partially or non-catalytic, this uncertainty may increase to as large as 18%. The catalytic wall model can contribute over 3x change in heat flux and a 20% variation in film coefficient. Therefore, coupled material response/fluid dynamic models are recommended for this problem. It was also found that much of this variability is artificially suppressed when a constant Schmidt number approach is implemented. Because the boundary layer is reacting, it is necessary to employ self-consistent effective binary diffusion to obtain a correct thermal transport solution. For Saturn entries, the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for convective heating was less than 3.7%. The major uncertainty driver was dependent on shock temperature/velocity, changing from boundary layer thermal conductivity to diffusivity and then to shock layer ionization rate as velocity increases. While radiative heating for Uranus entry was negligible, the nominal solution for Saturn computed up to 20% radiative heating at the highest velocity examined. The radiative heating followed a non-normal distribution, with up to a 3x variation in magnitude. This uncertainty is driven by the H(sub 2) dissociation rate, as H(sub 2) that persists in the hot non-equilibrium zone contributes significantly to radiation.
Program simulates constant elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function. CES function used by economic analysts to examine production costs as well as uncertainties in production. User provides such input parameters as price of labor, price of capital, and dispersion levels. CES minimizes expected cost to produce capital-uncertainty pair. By varying capital-value input, one obtains series of capital-uncertainty pairs. Capital-uncertainty pairs then used to generate several cost curves. CES program menu driven and features specific print menu for examining selected output curves. Program written in BASIC for interactive execution and implemented on IBM PC-series computer.
This paper presents an extended polynomial chaos formalism for epistemic uncertainties and a new framework for evaluating sensitivities and variations of output probability density functions (PDF) to uncertainty in probabilistic models of input variables. An ”extended” polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is developed that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, modeled as random variables, thus allowing a unified treatment of both types of uncertainty. We explore in particular epistemic uncertainty associated with the choice of prior probabilistic models for input parameters. A PCE-based Kernel Density (KDE) construction provides a composite map from the PCE coefficients and germ to the PDF of quantities of interest (QoI). Here, the sensitivities of these PDF with respect to the input parameters are then evaluated. Input parameters of the probabilistic models are considered. By sampling over the epistemic random variable, a family of PDFs is generated and the failure probability is itself estimated as a random variable with its own PCE. Integrating epistemic uncertainties within the PCE framework results in a computationally efficient paradigm for propagation and sensitivity evaluation. Two typical illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.
We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.
Measuring neutrino mixing angles, especially the CP violation phase and mass hierarchy, is one of the priorities of the neutrino community and long baseline neutrino oscillation programs, such as T2K and NOvA, provided the most precise measurements to date. One of the dominating uncertainties of the measurements is the neutrino interaction model due to the difficulty of modeling the nuclear effects from first principles. As a result, neutrino scattering experiments such as MINERvA were conducted to provide data as input to reduce this uncertainty. This thesis presents a charged-current double-differential cross section measurement of electron neutrinos using the MINERvA detector in terms of available energy (a proxy of energy transfer), three-momentum transfer, and/or transverse momentum of the final state electron. This measurement focuses on the transition region between quasi-elastic and resonance processes, where the multi-nucleon knockout process dominates. The result is compared to a modified GENIE model and similar measurements using muon neutrino samples. In addition, this measurement reproduces the photon-like excess seen by previous MINERvA electron neutrino measurements.
Additive Manufacturing (AM) of alloys holds significant promise as a disruptive technology in various industries, yet its adoption is often hindered by challenges in achieving consistent part quality. These issues are primarily due to the complex process-microstructure-property (PSP) relationships inherent to AM. Computational models can greatly aid in understanding these relationships, but their widespread impact and adoption has been limited by a lack of validated, open-source, and computationally efficient PSP modeling frameworks and hardware limitations. Here, this study leverages the ExaAM software suite and data from the AMBench-2018 series of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) benchmark experiments to perform a comprehensive model assessment, including verification, validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The RADICAL-EnTK workflow manager was used to perform an ensemble of heat transport, solidification, and mechanical response simulations on the exascale computer Frontier, considering uncertainties in critical model inputs such as laser spot size and nucleation parameters, and consisting of 125 explicit grain structure simulations and 7875 crystal plasticity simulations. For a selected location within the Inconel 625 AMBench-2018 test artifact, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification were performed using the predicted distributions of grain structure and mechanical properties. Qualitative agreement was found between the predicted grain size and texture and the observed AMBench-2018 microstructure, the mean predicted yield stress was within 5% of the experimental measurement mean, and the mean predicted engineering stress at 5% strain was within 10% of the experimental measurement mean. The insights gained from development and validation of the ExaAM PSP modeling framework will help guide future directions for enhancing the credibility and reliability of PSP models in AM, thereby accelerating the adoption of AM technologies in various industries.
Abstract. Floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) systems are subject to complex environmental loads, with significant potential for damage in extreme storm conditions. Design simulations in these conditions are required to assess the survivability of the device with some level of confidence. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic engineering tools can be used with a reasonable balance of accuracy and computational efficiency. The models require many input parameters to describe the air and water conditions, the system properties, and the load calculations. Each of these parameters has some possible range, due to either statistical uncertainty or variations with time. Variation in the input parameters can have important effects on the uncertainty in the resulting loads, but it is not practical to perform detailed assessments of the impact of this uncertainty for every input parameter. This work demonstrates a method to identify the input parameters that have the most impact on the loads to focus further inspection. The process is done specifically for extreme storm load cases defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission design requirements for floating offshore wind turbines. The analysis was performed using the International Energy Agency Wind 15 MW offshore reference wind turbine atop the University of Maine VolturnUS-S reference platform in two US offshore wind regions, the Gulf of Maine and Humboldt Bay. It was found that the direction of incident waves and current, yaw misalignment, and the length of mooring line sections were among the primary sensitivities.
Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.
In the presence of model discrepancy, the calibration of physics-based models for physical parameter inference is a challenging problem. Lack of identifiability between calibration parameters and model discrepancy requires additional identifiability constraints to be placed on the model discrepancy to obtain unique physical parameter estimates. If these assumptions are violated, the inference for the calibration parameters can be systematically biased. In many applications, such as in dynamic material property experiments, many of the calibration inputs refer to measurement uncertainties. Here, we develop a metric for identifying overfitting of these measurement uncertainties, propose a prior capable of reducing this overfitting, and show how this leads to a diagnostic tool for validation of physical parameter inference. The approach is demonstrated for a benchmark example and applied for a material property application to perform inference on the equation of state parameters of tantalum.