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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

FLYING SERVING: On-the-Fly Parallelism Switching for Large Language Model Serving

Production LLM serving must simultaneously deliver high throughput, low latency, and sufficient context capacity under non-stationary traffic and mixed request requirements. Data parallelism (DP) maximizes throughput by running independent replicas, while tensor parallelism (TP) reduces per-request latency and pools memory for long-context inference. However, existing serving stacks typically commit to a static parallelism configuration at deployment; adapting to bursts, priorities, or long-context requests is often disruptive and slow. We present Flying Serving, a vLLM-based system that enables online DP-TP switching without restarting engine workers. Flying Serving makes reconfiguration practical by virtualizing the state that would otherwise force data movement: (i) a zero-copy Model Weights Manager that exposes TP shard views on demand, (ii) a KV Cache Adaptor that preserves request KV state across DP/TP layouts, (iii) an eagerly initialized Communicator Pool to amortize collective setup, and (iv) a deadlock-free scheduler that coordinates safe transitions under execution skew. Across three popular LLMs and realistic serving scenarios, Flying Serving improves performance by up to 4.79 × under high load and 3.47 × under low load while supporting latency- and memory-driven requests.

Gao, Shouwei [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy Requirements for Integration of Nuclear Reactors with Iron and Steel Plants

This report identifies energy needs of heavy energy users within the domestic iron and steel industry and suggests solutions for integrating nuclear energy. The iron and steel industry, composed of several types of plants which perform different processes with varied energy demands and vectors, is a heavy consumer of electric power and fossil fuels including coke and natural gas. Almost all major process temperatures exceed the temperatures of direct heat available from advanced reactors, and so electricity and hydrogen were considered instead. Reference units were adopted and estimated energy demands computed for the blast furnace (BF), direct reduced iron (DRI) unit, electric arc furnace (EAF), and reheat furnaces. By utilizing production capacity data from industry reports, the ranges of power demands were estimated, including for hydrogen production by high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). For the EAF and DRI unit, more detailed integration studies with thermodynamic modeling were also conducted and determined a possible solution with a specific reactor design and number of modules. Furthermore, because many unit processes are co-located, entire plants were considered by adding the energy demands of the unit processes to form four hypothetical reference plants. The range of power needs for the reference plants is compatible with multi-unit banks of microreactors at the low end, and would create a need for multiple larger-capacity SMRs at the high end (1 GWe plus 0.14 GWt). Although the overall power need at the high end is well-matched with one present-day large reactor offering (1.1 GWe), redundancy considerations may require a minimum of two reactors, potentially eliminating the single large reactor from consideration. Auxiliary or house loads would increase the reference plant estimates. Finally, the report provides total estimated energy needs under integration of all U.S. units of each process (BF, DRI, EAF, and reheat furnaces), representing a national potential for nuclear energy in the industry. U.S. iron and steel plants may be candidates for integration with nuclear reactors via electricity and hydrogen, and many sites have energy requirements that correspond well to the capacities of several advanced nuclear power designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Criticality Analysis of FSV Spent Nuclear Fuel in the DOE Standard Canister

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for managing over 300 types of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). To manage this large variety of fuel types, DOE plans to employ standardized canisters for the transportation, long-term storage, and eventual disposal of SNF. Idaho National Laboratory is currently supporting DOE’s SNF Packaging Demonstration Project, in which Fort Saint Vrain (FSV) fuel assemblies will be loaded into a DOE Standard Canister. This paper presents criticality calculations demonstrating that all four or five FSV fuel assemblies loaded into the DOE Standard Canister will remain subcritical in any expected normal or credible abnormal conditions. Previous criticality analyses were performed for one FSV fuel assembly and 12 Peach Bottom Core 2 fuel elements loaded into a DOE Standard Canister. This paper covers the criticality analysis performed for loading both four and five FSV fuel assemblies into a DOE Standard Canister. Various intact and degraded mode configurations were modeled in conducting the criticality calculations. This analysis encompassed three different configurations: (1) a single DOE Standard Canister loaded into a concrete storage overpack, (2) seven DOE Standard Canisters loaded into a concrete storage overpack, and (3) nine DOE Standard Canisters loaded into a concrete storage overpack. The overpack dimensions were varied for each of the three configurations, and transport, storage, and disposal scenarios were analyzed for each configuration. For transport scenarios, a pair of degradation cases was analyzed. In the first case, the fuel compacts became degraded and were removed from the fuel block, then deposited at the bottom of a horizontally placed canister, thereby simulating a drop event. The canister was considered to remain intact. In the second case, the spacing between horizontally placed canisters in a nine-canister overpack was reduced such that the canisters were piled on top of each other, simulating a drop event. For this case, no degradation of the canister internals or fuel was considered. For storage scenarios, the water moderator location in the system was varied to enable identification of the most reactive configurations. Dry and wet conditions were analyzed for the fuel materials, canister, and overpack. For disposal scenarios, two degradation cases were analyzed. In the first, the stainless-steel internals of the canister degraded to either hematite or goethite under both dry and wet conditions. In the second case, degraded FSV fuel formed a uranium-water slurry that filled the coolant/void holes. None of the cases presented exceeded the application specific upper subcritical limit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Corrosion Testing of Refractory inContact with Molten Glasses Designed for Waste Vitrification - VSL Touchpoint Matrix Glasses

It is known that the predictive life of the refractory ceramic liner of nuclear waste glass melters is conservative, as demonstrated by performance of these materials such as in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). The motivation for this task is to maximize the useful life of the melters that will be operated at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP), which will in turn minimize procurement and disposal costs and melter outage times, as well as to identify maximum loadings in the waste glass of those species that corrode melter components. This task was initiated jointly with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with the objective to develop a methodology and model to enable more accurate prediction of refractory service life under prototypic conditions from laboratory-scale material corrosion tests. Refractory corrosion is generally reported as physical material loss, measured in units of distance (e.g., inch) or as physical material loss rate, measured in units of distance per time (e.g., inch/day). In post-operational melters, the refractory corrosion is measured directly, sometimes reported as corrosion depth. Crucible tests are used in the laboratory to accelerate the refractory corrosion to facilitate a meaningful measurement in a commensurate amount of time. Crucible tests are particularly useful in understanding refractory corrosion across a large glass composition space, where operational testing would be prohibitive. Some of the critical parameters that are known to influence refractory corrosion by molten glass in a crucible test are temperature, system redox, molten salt phases, glass chemistry, and test duration. The majority of data collected for Monofrax® K-3 (hereafter referred to as K-3) corrosion is from crucible tests, but a small amount comes directly from scaled and production melters. Crucible test data has been collected under varying conditions, whereas data collected from operational melters is relatively fewer and represents conditions specific to the melter campaign. The result is that the published data can be grouped and analyzed in multiple ways, not all of which are readily comparable. The Standard Test Method for Isothermal Corrosion Resistance of Refractories to Molten Glass (ASTM C621) outlines the general guidelines used across industry. That method describes a sealed, static test in which the surface area of the refractory coupon and the volume of glass are fixed. A significant portion of the crucible data pertaining to nuclear waste glasses has been collected in a modified configuration; the most notable differences being the surface area of the refractory coupon to volume of the glass and use of a method for bubbling the melt. To our knowledge, the influence of those parameters on the refractory corrosion has not been quantified. In this work, it was determined that static tests and bubbled tests would be performed. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was tasked with setting up and performing static testing while PNNL was tasked with setting up and performing bubbled testing. Initial activities were performed to establish laboratory methods that reproduce data comparable to existing data sets of K-3 refractory corrosion by low activity waste (LAW) and high-level waste (HLW) glass compositions. Later activities were focused on refining the test parameters to establish a standard test practice to be used between Laboratories and collecting additional data to be used in the enhanced waste glass model development. This document serves primarily to convey the refractory loss measurement results from corrosion testing of K-3 refractory with waste glass compositions developed for use in the WTP melters. The data will be used in the enhanced property/composition models being developed for waste glass vitrification and melter operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Large-Scale Analysis to Optimize the Control and V2V Communication Protocols for CDA Agreement-Seeking Cooperation

Cooperative driving automation (CDA) Class C, agreement-seeking cooperation, is an innovative and practical solution that can promote cooperation among general passenger vehicles on the road. However, more comprehensive studies are needed before establishing the standard protocols of agreement-seeking cooperation, such as communication frequency and the duration of cooperation. Here, this article presents an initiative study on the impacts of communication capabilities on agreement-seeking cooperation. Through a large-scale analysis by regulating vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication metrics, this work suggests desirable system parameters that can maximize the benefits of cooperation and ensure reliable operability while avoiding exhaustive communication loads. As the first step, an example agreement-seeking cooperation system is created for a car-following scenario, including decision-making and control algorithms for autonomous vehicles. Then, software-in-the-loop tests explore the performance of the developed system as it encounters various communication risks, such as latency and message packet drops. The system performance metrics are evaluated from various angles, including the time consumed for the agreement-seeking process, cooperation ratio, and the ratio of faulty cooperation. Energy saving from the cooperation is assessed by using simulation software that can run multiple high-fidelity vehicle models simultaneously. Based on the analyses, this article suggests the V2V communication requirements for the reliable operation of CDA agreement-seeking, which can be referred to when developing the standard protocols of agreement-seeking cooperation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sparse chronology strategy for integrating seasonal energy storage in capacity expansion models

Here, this study develops the sparse chronology method to enhance the representative period framework in capacity expansion models, enabling the effective integration of long-duration energy storage modeling. Traditional representative period methods cannot capture the state of charge of seasonal energy storage systems because they do not establish effective inter-day linkages to connect the state of charge between periods. The sparse chronology approach addresses this limitation by establishing inter-day linkages that allow state of charge to shift inter-seasonally. At the same time, it groups identical representative days into partitions, applying constraints sparsely and implicitly to reduce computational load further. Validation results demonstrate that this method successfully simulates long-duration energy storage patterns, achieving close alignment with a continuous yearly benchmark model, with seasonal trends and state of charge cycles clearly represented. The computational load analysis reveals that the sparse chronology method efficiently applies constraints on maximum and minimum state of charge limits within the representative day framework, eliminating the need for detailed constraints on each individual day. By partitioning representative days and constraining only the start and end of each partition, the method significantly decreases computational requirements. Simulation results show that sparse chronology closely approximates the continuous yearly method's accuracy, even with as few as 20 representative days, achieving correlation values with the benchmark of nearly 0.9 in state of charge plots. Furthermore, it maintains computational efficiency, requiring only 4 % of the solver time compared to the continuous yearly method with 20 representative days. This approach allows capacity expansion models to incorporate long-duration energy storage with high temporal, spatial, and technological resolution, enabling more detailed modeling for large-scale power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Environmentally Assisted Fatigue in Light Water Reactor Environment

This report summarizes the Environmentally Assisted Fatigue (EAF) research conducted at ANL under the US DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Starting from a rich background in theoretical and experimental EAF, ANL previously developed an approach to evaluate fatigue performance of reactor materials in light water reactor environments with the correction factor F en . The approach was based on a large body of experimental work performed at ANL and elsewhere, and was consistent with American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)’s methodology governing the design and construction of reactor components. In recent years, the program was focused on component fatigue prediction and made several major and fundamental contributions in this area. These accomplishments help meet the needs identified by the industry concerning component level fatigue predictions in complex, transient conditions. The main contribution of the ANL program involved the development of a system-level model for estimating residual strain and life of nuclear reactor coolant system components under connected-system-thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. The goal was to predict the stress hotspots, strain residuals, strain amplitudes and the resulting fatigue lives. Thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed considering thermal stratification and a design-basis reactor loading cycle. Based on the finite element (FE) model results, the strain residuals, strain amplitudes and resulting fatigue lives of reactor coolant system (RCS) components were predicted. The results show that some of the RCS components can have significantly different strain amplitudes, residual strain, and fatigue lives, despite having similar geometry and material. In addition, the simulated component-level strain profile can guide the selection of appropriate test inputs for conducting laboratory-scale EAF tests. Building upon the system-level model, ANL developed a digital twin (DT) framework to predict the structural states and associated fatigue life of components in real-time. This framework is a comprehensive system designed to predict the structural states and fatigue lives of reactor components. It includes multiple models and integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and FE based modeling tools to evaluate the structural states and fatigue lives.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermophysical properties of the Ghareb formation relevant for nuclear waste disposal

The Ghareb formation, a shallowly buried porous chalk in Israel, is currently a candidate for nuclear waste disposal. The potential repository is somewhat unique for its host rock and emplacement in shallow (500 m) engineered large diameter boreholes. Herein, the thermal properties of the Ghareb are determined to support design and performance assessment; the relevant properties measured are thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, thermal diffusivity, and thermal expansion coefficient along with their relationship with varying temperature. For the temperature range of 40 to 275 °C, the thermal conductivity ranges from 0.30 to 1.10 W/m·K, the thermal diffusivity ranges from 0.20 to 0.72 mm 2 /s, and volumetric heat capacity ranges from 0.86 to 2.00 MJ/m 3 ·K. Thermal strain measurements were used to estimate the linear thermal expansion coefficient to be 6·10 –4 –9·10 –2 °C -1 from 40 to 300 °C. These measured properties were used in a thermomechanical model to estimate near-field stresses an hour and 10 years after waste emplacement; the borehole was found to be stable. Thermal loading after 10 years was predicted to elevate local pore pressures by 1–1.5 MPa. The laboratory measurements coupled with analyses are the first attempts at performance assessment characterization for this first of its kind potential repository setting with this chosen host rock.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Urban wash-off of tire wear particles

Tire wear particles (TWPs) are an important class of microplastics due to their toxicity and abundance. Because most TWPs are generated on impervious road surfaces, urban wash-off is the critical first phase of waterborne transport from their zone of production to stormwater drainage. However, little is known about the driving factors behind their mobilization. In this study, we use a rainfall simulator to investigate how surface roughness, rainfall intensity, and surface slope affect wash-off behaviors of TWPs. We also analyze how the size and shape of mobilized TWPs change over the course of simulated storm events. We found that low surface roughness, high rainfall intensity (most significant factor), and low slope result in the most rapid conveyance of TWP load. On average, large particles (>1000 µm) travelled faster than small particles (<125 µm). Particle shape explained a very small amount of variance in TWP wash-off velocity but was found to be more important under higher surface roughness conditions. In addition to wash-off velocity, we found similar conditions controlled the percent mobilization of TWPs. Low surface roughness and high rainfall intensity resulting in higher TWP wash-off rates is consistent with mineral sediment wash-off behavior. Conversely, low surface slope and large particle size leading to faster conveyance is directly opposed to mineral sediment wash-off. Our findings suggest drag-dominated flow and that sufficient runoff depth is the most important parameter governing TWP wash-off. These findings are important first steps to understanding wash-off behaviors of TWPs and informing future modeling efforts and mitigation strategies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geomagnetically Induced Current Field Test on Large Grid-Connected Power Transformers: Analysis, Model Development, and Simulations

Geomagnetic-induced current (GIC) flow in power grids can cause undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, harmonics, higher reactive power demand, etc. Many simulation models have been developed to study these effects, but real-world verification on modern transformer designs is rare. Here, this paper presents the first long-duration GIC field test in the U.S. performed on high-voltage, grid-connected transformers featuring winding clamps and tie rods instead of conventional tie bars. Field measurements were taken to evaluate GIC effects. These measurements also aided in developing and validating thermal and electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of the transformers. During the test, significant current and voltage distortions were observed along with considerable transformer reactive power losses. Analysis of the field measurements showed that the transformers’ hottest spot was at the inner windings, and their k-factors were close to factory test and software default values. Thermal simulations indicated that the transformers would not violate their thermal limits even for a GIC waveform that peaks at about 200 A/phase. EMT simulations revealed that increased transformer loading may reduce GIC-induced reactive power demand and harmonics in certain scenarios. The study also highlighted potential inaccuracies in using the k-factor method to calculate transformer reactive power losses.

EMTDC↗
DOE OSTI2025

A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks

We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.

Design under uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effectiveness of street trees in reducing air temperature and outdoor heat exposure in Las Vegas

Urban greening and especially tree planting strategies are being widely planned and implemented to mitigate urban overheating and thermal stress in many urban areas. However, the effectiveness of these strategies depends on multiple factors, including urban morphology, environmental conditions, and tree characteristics. This study investigates the effects of street tree planting strategies on air temperature and outdoor heat exposure in Las Vegas by combining an urbanized mesoscale climate model coupled to a multi-layer street tree model (Weather Research and Forecasting-BEP-Tree; Δ x = 900 m) with a microscale pedestrian heat exposure model (Temperatures of Urban Facets for Pedestrian; Δ x = 1 m). A series of simulations are conducted for July and August 2022. Large city-wide increases of a drought tolerant tree species cool air temperature mainly during the nighttime (up to 1.5 °C), with daytime effects being limited due to leaves shedding sensible instead of latent heat as stomata close in response to high vapor pressure deficits. Increased evaporative cooling is achieved with a different tree species (double at night, and reaching 0.4 °C during the day), but water requirements increase threefold. Despite their relatively small effect on air temperature during the day, trees provide significant shade by intercepting solar radiation, reducing mean radiant temperature (up to 16 °C) and enhancing outdoor thermal comfort, a major benefit of street trees in hot arid climates. The nighttime cooling of trees and the daytime reduction of radiant loading show potential to reduce the heat-related health impacts. Our results highlight the need to evaluate the effects of street trees on a case-by-case basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The nonlinear behavior of generic tail fins for small wind turbines

This paper describes analysis and measurements of the yaw response of tail fins for small wind turbines. It is based on an extension of unsteady slender body theory (USBT) to cover non-slender fins and high angles of incidence, both of which make the theory nonlinear. We provide three main additions to the substantial literature on linearized USBT for tail fins. First, USBT is extended to high angles by modeling the nonlinear vortex dynamics. Second, the restriction to slender bodies is removed by modeling the chordwise load variation. Third, we consider the effect of time-varying wind speed. Further, the extended theory is compared to wind tunnel measurements of the yaw behavior of delta, elliptical, and rectangular tail fins without a rotor and nacelle. The fins were released from initial yaw angles of -40° and -80°; the latter is of sufficient magnitude to show the importance of the nonlinear yaw dynamics. Generally good agreement was found between the theory and measurements, and the theory was shown to be more accurate than a “polar” or quasi-steady model which uses only the lift and drag of a delta planform. Of the three planforms, the rectangular one showed the lowest accuracy in terms of frequency but the damping was accurately predicted. Overall, the results demonstrate the importance of nonlinearity in the response of a yawing tail fin, particularly for the higher aspect ratio fins at large yaw angles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sub-Ambient Performance of Potassium Sarcosinate for Direct Air Capture Applications: CO 2 Flux and Viscosity Measurements

Absorption based direct air capture (DAC) technologies have garnered significant interest in recent years due to their scalability, competitive regeneration energy requirements, and low susceptibility to degradation. One of the key advantages of DAC lies in its flexible siting options and the potential to utilize low-value land. However, most of the research in this field has been focused on ambient climate zones (T > 20 °C), overlooking sub-ambient (–30 °C < T < 20 °C) regions, which comprise approximately 70 % of the Earth’s surface. To fully realize the potential of DAC, it is essential to understand how DAC solvents perform in these sub-ambient conditions before any large-scale deployment can be considered. Among DAC solvents of interest, potassium sarcosinate (K-SAR) has emerged as a promising candidate due to its high CO 2 capacity, fast uptake kinetics, compatibility with contactor packing materials, low volatility, good thermal and oxidative stability, and competitive regeneration energy requirements compared to current industry standards. This paper characterizes the CO 2 flux and viscosity of K-SAR at sub-ambient conditions and explores the potential of using ethylene glycol and triethylene glycol as additives to prevent solvent freezing in DAC applications. For 1 M K-SAR, the CO 2 flux ranges between 1.3 × 10 -5 and 8.0 × 10 -5 mol m –2 s –1 across a temperature range of –5 °C to 45 °C. Ethylene glycol is shown to effectively suppress the freezing point of K-SAR below –30 °C with volumetric loadings of the additive as low as 0.1. Here, a reaction model was developed to predict the CO 2 flux for 1 M K-SAR at different temperatures, demonstrating good agreement between experimental and theoretical fluxes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fitness-for-Service Analysis of Reactor Components under Flexible Load-Following Operating Conditions

Conventional power-generation plants, including nuclear plants, have been traditionally designed to provide a steady baseload energy capacity, optimizing output efficiency while minimizing variable costs. However, the growing adoption of large-scale renewable energy-generation systems, which rely on intermittent sources such as solar and wind, has introduced more variability into the energy supply in interconnected electricity grids. As a result, the next generation of power plants needs to operate in what is known as the load-following mode, requiring flexible adjustments in electricity production to align with the energy demand on the grid. This transition from the steady baseload operation to load-following operating conditions can significantly increase the number of times various plant components are exposed to transient stresses. This increased thermo-mechanical cycling can lead to accelerated material degradation, thereby elevating the risk of premature failure of a component. It becomes imperative to conduct a comprehensive analysis of fatigue, creep-fatigue, and stress corrosion cracking life, to assess the resilience of the various engineering components under these flexible load-following operating conditions. This study aims to develop a comprehensive numerical model of a light-water reactor pressure vessel (RPV) to investigate its degradation under various operating scenarios. This coupled thermo-mechanical finite element analysis evaluated the stress response of the RPV caused by considering fluctuations in thermal and mechanical loads caused by the varying pressure and temperature occurring during the load-following operation. Critical locations on the RPV are subsequently identified based on the stress response. The stress intensity factors for the postulated flaws at those locations are then calculated, followed by an evaluation of the reactor's life in accordance with the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI. This comprehensive life assessment covers a number of transients expected during the flexible load-following operation, providing invaluable insights into the RPV's structural integrity. Moreover, the development methodology can be adapted to other reactor components, as well as components of conventional power stations that are affected by varying operating conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of an Accelerometer-Based Structural Health Monitoring System for the LANL Blast Tube

A modeling- and simulation-based study was conducted on the feasibility of implementing an accelerometer-based SHM system on the Los Alamos National Laboratory blast tube. A blast tube experiment was modeled using the Abaqus explicit finite element solver. A custom user subroutine was written to apply test-like pressure loading to the inside surface of the blast tube. The subroutine applies analytically defined pressure loads derived from tracer output taken from a Compressible Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics Solver model of the blast tube. Five unique versions of the model were created: an undamaged reference model at 65°F was used as the baseline and compared to equivalent models at 10°F and 100°F. These three models were compared to models with small damage at the reference temperature. The two types of damage considered were a radial (circumferential) crack in the main tube body and a longitudinal crack in the supports. Acceleration outputs were extracted from accelerometer bodies included in the model and were post processed using a variety of standard SHM techniques. Different potential features signaling failure were extracted and compared using statistical methods in the time and frequency domains. A method was identified that clearly shows that differences in structural response resulting from the modeled damage can be differentiated from the structural response resulting from changing environmental conditions. However, the amount of damage applied to create observable differences in the accelerometer data was so large that simpler methods of damage detection would be more cost effective in locating damage.

42 ENGINEERING↗