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At least 235 records · Page 13

Design, performance and life cycle cost relationships for a 500kW space solar array

The effects on life cycle costs of a number of technology areas are examined for a LEO, 500kW space solar array. A baseline system conceptual design is developed and the life cycle costs estimated in detail. The baseline system requirements and design technologies are then varied and their relationships to life cycle costs quantified. For example, the thermal characteristics of the baseline design are determined by the array materials and masses. The thermal characteristics in turn determine configuration, performance and hence life cycle cost.

Richardson, P. W.↗

Gallium arsenide solar array subsystem study

The effects on life cycle costs of a number of technology areas are examined for a gallium arsenide space solar array. Four specific configurations were addressed: (1) a 250 KWe LEO mission - planer array; (2) a 250 KWe LEO mission - with concentration; (3) a 50 KWe GEO mission planer array; (4) a 50 KWe GEO mission - with concentration. For each configuration, a baseline system conceptual design was developed and the life cycle costs estimated in detail. The baseline system requirements and design technologies were then varied and their relationships to life cycle costs quantified. For example, the thermal characteristics of the baseline design are determined by the array materials and masses. The thermal characteristics in turn determine configuration, performance, and hence life cycle costs.

Miller, F. Q.↗

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Watkins, T., Jr.↗

Vapor Compression Distillation Urine Processor Lessons Learned from Development and Life Testing

Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) is the chosen technology for urine processing aboard the International Space Station (155). Development and life testing over the past several years have brought to the forefront problems and solutions for the VCD technology. Testing between 1992 and 1998 has been instrumental in developing estimates of hardware life and reliability. It has also helped improve the hardware design in ways that either correct existing problems or enhance the existing design of the hardware. The testing has increased the confidence in the VCD technology and reduced technical and programmatic risks. This paper summarizes the test results and changes that have been made to the VCD design.

Hutchens, Cindy F.↗

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗

Life prediction modeling based on strainrange partitioning

Strainrange partitioning (SRP) is an integrated low-cycle-fatigue life predicting system. It was created specifically for calculating cyclic crack initiation life under severe high-temperature fatigue conditions. The key feature of the SRP system is its recognition of the interacting mechanisms of cyclic inelastic deformation that govern cyclic life at high temperatures. The SRP system bridges the gap between the mechanistic level of understanding that breeds new and better materials and the phenomenological level wherein workable engineering life prediction methods are in great demand. The system was recently expanded to address engineering fatigue problems in the low-strain, long-life, nominally elastic regime. This breakthrough, along with other advances in material behavior and testing technology, has permitted the system to also encompass low-strain thermomechanical loading conditions. Other important refinements of the originally proposed method include procedures for dealing with life-reducing effects of multiaxial loading, ratcheting, mean stresses, nonrepetitive (cumulative loading) loading, and environmental and long-time exposure. Procedure were also developed for partitioning creep and plastic strain and for estimating strainrange versus life relations from tensile and creep rupture properties. Each of the important engineering features of the SRP system are discussed and examples shown of how they help toward predicting high-temperature fatigue life under practical, although complex, loading conditions.

Halford, Gary R.↗

The accumulation rate of meteorite falls at the earth's surface - The view from Roosevelt County, New Mexico

The discovery of 154 meteorite fragments within an 11-sq km area of wind-excavated basins in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, permits a new calculation of the accumulation rate of meteorite falls at the earth's surface. Thermoluminescence dating of the coversand unit comprising the prime recovery surface suggests the maximum terrestrial age of the meteorites to be about 16.0 ka. The 68 meteorite fragments subjected to petrological analyses represent a minimum of 49 individual falls. Collection bias has largely excluded carbonaceous chondrites and achondrites, requiring the accumulation rate derived from the recovered samples to be increased by a factor of 1.25. Terrestrial weathering destroying ordinary chondrites can be modeled as a first-order decay process with an estimated half-life of 3.5 + or - 1.9 ka on the semiarid American High Plains. Having accounted for the age of the recovery surface, area of field searches, pairing of finds, collection bias and weathering half-life, an accumulation rate of 940 falls/a per 10 to the 6th sq km is calculated for falls greater than 10 g total mass. This figure exceeds the best-constrained previous estimate by more than an order of magnitude. One possible reason for this disparity may be the extraordinary length of the fall record preserved in the surficial geology of Roosevelt County. The high accumulation rate determined for the past 16 ka may point to the existence of periods when the meteorite fall rate was significantly greater than at present.

Zolensky, Michael E.↗

Aerospace Systems Design in NASA's Collaborative Engineering Environment

Past designs of complex aerospace systems involved an environment consisting of collocated design teams with project managers, technical discipline experts, and other experts (e.g. manufacturing and systems operations). These experts were generally qualified only on the basis of past design experience and typically had access to a limited set of integrated analysis tools. These environments provided less than desirable design fidelity, often lead to the inability of assessing critical programmatic and technical issues (e.g., cost risk, technical impacts), and generally derived a design that was not necessarily optimized across the entire system. The continually changing, modern aerospace industry demands systems design processes that involve the best talent available (no matter where it resides) and access to the best design and analysis tools. A solution to these demands involves a design environment referred to as collaborative engineering. The collaborative engineering environment evolving within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is a capability that enables the Agency's engineering infrastructure to interact and use the best state-of-the-art tools and data across organizational boundaries. Using collaborative engineering, the collocated team is replaced with an interactive team structure where the team members are geographically distributed and the best engineering talent can be applied to the design effort regardless of physical location. In addition, a more efficient, higher quality design product is delivered by bringing together the best engineering talent with more up-to-date design and analysis tools. These tools are focused on interactive, multidisciplinary design and analysis with emphasis on the complete life cycle of the system, and they include nontraditional, integrated tools for life cycle cost estimation and risk assessment. NASA has made substantial progress during the last two years in developing a collaborative engineering environment. NASA is planning to use this collaborative engineering infrastructure to provide better aerospace systems life cycle design and analysis, which includes analytical assessment of the technical and programmatic aspects of a system from "cradle to grave." This paper describes the recent NASA developments in the area of collaborative engineering, the benefits (realized and anticipated) of using the developed capability, and the long-term plans for implementing this capability across the Agency.

Monell, Donald W.↗

Aerospace Systems Design in NASA's Collaborative Engineering Environment

Past designs of complex aerospace systems involved an environment consisting of collocated design teams with project managers, technical discipline experts, and other experts (e.g., manufacturing and systems operation). These experts were generally qualified only on the basis of past design experience and typically had access to a limited set of integrated analysis tools. These environments provided less than desirable design fidelity, often lead to the inability of assessing critical programmatic and technical issues (e.g., cost, risk, technical impacts), and generally derived a design that was not necessarily optimized across the entire system. The continually changing, modern aerospace industry demands systems design processes that involve the best talent available (no matter where it resides) and access to the the best design and analysis tools. A solution to these demands involves a design environment referred to as collaborative engineering. The collaborative engineering environment evolving within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is a capability that enables the Agency's engineering infrastructure to interact and use the best state-of-the-art tools and data across organizational boundaries. Using collaborative engineering, the collocated team is replaced with an interactive team structure where the team members are geographical distributed and the best engineering talent can be applied to the design effort regardless of physical location. In addition, a more efficient, higher quality design product is delivered by bringing together the best engineering talent with more up-to-date design and analysis tools. These tools are focused on interactive, multidisciplinary design and analysis with emphasis on the complete life cycle of the system, and they include nontraditional, integrated tools for life cycle cost estimation and risk assessment. NASA has made substantial progress during the last two years in developing a collaborative engineering environment. NASA is planning to use this collaborative engineering engineering infrastructure to provide better aerospace systems life cycle design and analysis, which includes analytical assessment of the technical and programmatic aspects of a system from "cradle to grave." This paper describes the recent NASA developments in the area of collaborative engineering, the benefits (realized and anticipated) of using the developed capability, and the long-term plans for implementing this capability across Agency.

Monell, Donald W.↗

Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level activities.

Hunt, Charles D.↗

Humans to Mars Will Cost About "Half a Trillion Dollars" and Life Support Roughly Two Billion Dollars

A recent estimate of the cost of the first human mission to Mars suggests that it could cost half a trillion dollars. This estimate is consistent with most past estimates. A similar cost number can easily be derived using mass-cost estimating factors based on the International Space Station (ISS) and other experience. Using the same cost factors and life cycle cost estimating approach, the cost of the life support for the Mars mission could be two billion dollars or more. The cost to go to Mars is expected to be two or three times that of either Apollo, space shuttle, or ISS and could be as much as all three together.

Jones, Harry W.↗

The status of lightweight photovoltaic space array technology based on amorphous silicon solar cells

Ultralight, flexible photovoltaic (PV) array of amorphous silicon (a-Si) was identified as a potential low cost power source for small satellites. A survey was conducted of the status of the a-Si PV array technology with respect to present and future performance, availability, cost, and risks. For existing, experimental array blankets made of commercial cell material, utilizing metal foil substrates, the Beginning of Life (BOL) performance at Air Mass Zero (AM0) and 35 C includes total power up to 200 W, power per area of 64 W/sq m and power per weight of 258 W/kg. Doubling of power per weight occurs when polyimide substrates are used. Estimated End of Life (EOL) power output after 10 years in a nominal low earth orbit would be 80 pct. of BOL, the degradation being due to largely light induced effects (-10 to -15 pct.) and in part (-5 pct.) to space radiation. Predictions for the year 1995 for flexible PV arrays, made on the basis of published results for rigid a-Si modules, indicate EOL power output per area and per weight of 105 W/sq m and 400 W/kg, respectively, while predictions for the late 1990s based on existing U.S. national PV program goals indicate EOL values of 157 W/sq m and 600 W/kg. Cost estimates by vendors for 200 W ultralight arrays in volume of over 1000 units range from $100/watt to $125/watt. Identified risks include the lack of flexible, space compatible encapsulant, the lack of space qualification effort, recent partial or full acquisitions of US manufacturers of a-Si cells by foreign firms, and the absence of a national commitment for a long range development program toward developing of this important power source for space.

Hanak, Joseph J.↗

Gear crack propagation investigations

Analytical and experimental studies were performed to investigate the effect of gear rim thickness on crack propagation life. The FRANC (FRacture ANalysis Code) computer program was used to simulate crack propagation. The FRANC program used principles of linear elastic fracture mechanics, finite element modeling, and a unique re-meshing scheme to determine crack tip stress distributions, estimate stress intensity factors, and model crack propagation. Various fatigue crack growth models were used to estimate crack propagation life based on the calculated stress intensity factors. Experimental tests were performed in a gear fatigue rig to validate predicted crack propagation results. Test gears were installed with special crack propagation gages in the tooth fillet region to measure bending fatigue crack growth. Good correlation between predicted and measured crack growth was achieved when the fatigue crack closure concept was introduced into the analysis. As the gear rim thickness decreased, the compressive cyclic stress in the gear tooth fillet region increased. This retarded crack growth and increased the number of crack propagation cycles to failure.

Lewicki, David G.↗

Acoustic fatigue life prediction for nonlinear structures with multiple resonant modes

This report documents an effort to develop practical and accurate methods for estimating the fatigue lives of complex aerospace structures subjected to intense random excitations. The emphasis of the current program is to construct analytical schemes for performing fatigue life estimates for structures that exhibit nonlinear vibration behavior and that have numerous resonant modes contributing to the response.

Miles, R. N.↗

Chapter 13: A Simple Estimation of UV Irradiance Under Clear-Sky Conditions

Accelerated aging tests are designed to estimate the useful life of products in their end-use environment. There is currently no simple way to answer the age-old question: “How long should I run my weathering test to reproduce 1 year of outdoor aging?” At the very least, there is need to (1) evaluate the acceleration rate associated with each stress factor and (2) estimate the intensity of the stress factors that the products under scrutiny are exposed to in natural aging. In this chapter, a model is introduced to calculate the ratio between ultraviolet (UV) irradiance and global horizontal irradiance (GHI). This method was empirically derived from measured or simulated irradiance data and validated against outdoor observations. This ratio provides a simple way to estimate the UV dose that samples are exposed to at any outdoor location.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,OTHER INSTRUM↗

Life-Cycle Baseline Customization for the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20304

One of the responsibilities of the federal government is to estimate sound and defensible life-cycle baseline costs for use in federal budget estimates and to meet federal financial reporting requirements. To accomplish this, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) have partnered together to ensure that the liabilities documented in each Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) site's life-cycle baseline are specifically tailored. FUSRAP was created in the mid-1970's to clean up radiological contamination resulting from the early development of nuclear weapons. DOE was responsible for FUSRAP until October 1997, when Congress transferred the administration and execution of FUSRAP site cleanups to USACE. By 1997, DOE had completed the cleanup of 25 of the 46 sites that were active within the program and had begun cleanup at 13 additional sites. USACE was assigned responsibility for the cleanup of the 21 remaining FUSRAP sites, and at 8 additional sites that had since been referred for cleanup. The LM mission for the FUSRAP sites is to perform long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTS and M). Currently, LM provides long-term stewardship for 34 completed FUSRAP sites. Another 20 sites are under active remediation by USACE. Within the last 5 years, USACE has completed the cleanup at five FUSRAP sites and the LTS and M responsibility has been transferred to LM. By 2029, USACE will compete remediation at eight additional sites and LTS and M for those sites will transfer to LM. Because responsibilities for the FUSRAP sites transfer between USACE and LM upon completion of remedial actions, both agencies maintain life-cycle baselines for different stages of the project and both must have a strong understanding of the needs and requirements for each site. This understanding ensures that the life-cycle baselines form a complete and accurate picture of what is required for the site and for the FUSRAP program. LM focuses on several things when customizing the life-cycle baseline estimates for the FUSRAP sites, including (1) Understanding the unique requirements for each site. By reviewing site-specific documents prepared by USACE, such as Feasibility Studies and Records of Decision, and partnering with USACE to gain additional insight about site conditions and requirements for stewardship, as well as potential risks, LM can better develop the life-cycle baselines. (2) Developing site-specific labor breakdowns. This ensures the required labor mix is baselined for specific activities by comparing the labor mix required to perform activities at (a) other LM-managed FUSRAP sites and (b) non-FUSRAP LM sites and (c) by USACE at active FUSRAP sites. (3) Taking a tiered approach to life-cycle baseline planning. Estimates for sites transferring to LM in the near term (5 years) are more definitive than for sites transferring in the out-year period. Remedial actions at the near-term sites are at or near completion, providing LM a strong understanding of the LTS and M requirements and remaining liabilities. This in turn allows for site-specific customization of the baseline. (4) Using a robust risk management approach to ensure that liabilities specific to each site are identified, evaluated by probability and severity, and documented in relation to the impact to cost or schedule. To ensure the most accuracy within all the baselines, the FUSRAP life-cycle baselines are updated as needed to support program, project, and contract management needs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

Equivalent System Mass (ESM) and reliability estimates were performed for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station (ISS) technologies. The analysis was applied to a hypothetical 1-year deep-space mission. High-level fault trees were initially developed relating loss of life support functionality to the Loss of Crew (LOC) top event. System reliability was then expressed as the complement (nonoccurrence) this event and was increased through the addition of redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. The reliability analysis assumed constant failure rates and used current projected values of the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) from an ISS database where available. Results were obtained showing the dependence of ESM on system reliability for each architecture. Although the analysis employed numerous simplifications and many of the input parameters are considered to have high uncertainty, the results strongly suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support system mass. As a point of reference, the reliability for a single-string architecture using the most regenerative combination of ISS technologies without unscheduled replacement spares was estimated to be less than 1%. The results also demonstrate how adding technologies in a serial manner to increase system closure forces the reliability of other life support technologies to increase in order to meet the system reliability requirement. This increase in reliability results in increased mass for multiple technologies through the need for additional spares. Alternative parallel architecture approaches and approaches with the potential to do more with less are discussed. The tall poles in life support ESM are also reexamined in light of estimated reliability impacts.

Lange, Kevin E.↗