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At least 235 records · Page 13

An optical technique for remote sensing of near-surface turbulence

Measurements of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates (TKE) or temperature dissipation rates of the the near-surface boundary layer are needed to understand air-sea exchange processes and rates. The capability to accurately estimate these variables by means of a remote technique is relevant to a number of questions ranging from the air-sea transfer of heat and gas to the fate of pollutants.

turbulence optical instrumentation surface process↗

Toward a Consistent Definition between Satellite and Model Clear-Sky Radiative Fluxes

A new method of determining clear-sky radiative fluxes from satellite observations for climate model evaluation is presented. The method consists of applying adjustment factors to existing satellite clear-sky broadband radiative fluxes that make the observed and simulated clear-sky flux definitions more consistent. The adjustment factors are determined from the difference between observation-based radiative transfer model calculations of monthly mean clear-sky fluxes obtained by ignoring clouds in the atmospheric column and by weighting hourly mean clear-sky fluxes with imager-based clear-area fractions. The global mean longwave (LW) adjustment factor is −2.2 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere and 2.7 W m−2 at the surface. The LW adjustment factors are pronounced at high latitudes during winter and in regions with high upper-tropospheric humidity and cirrus cloud cover, such as over the west tropical Pacific, and the South Pacific and intertropical convergence zones. In the shortwave (SW), global mean adjustment is 0.5 W m−2 at TOA and −1.9 W m−2 at the surface. It is most pronounced over sea ice off of Antarctica and over heavy aerosol regions, such as eastern China. However, interannual variations in the regional SW and LW adjustment factors are small compared to those in cloud radiative effect. After applying the LW adjustment factors, differences in zonal mean cloud radiative effect between observations and climate models decrease markedly between 60°S and 60°N and poleward of 65°N. The largest regional improvements occur over the west tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, the impact of the SW adjustment factors is much smaller.

Norman G Loeb↗

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

sea level↗

A 30-day forecast experiment with the GISS model and updated sea surface temperatures

The GISS model was used to compute two parallel global 30-day forecasts for the month January 1974. In one forecast, climatological January sea surface temperatures were used, while in the other observed sea temperatures were inserted and updated daily. A comparison of the two forecasts indicated no clear-cut beneficial effect of daily updating of sea surface temperatures. Despite the rapid decay of daily predictability, the model produced a 30-day mean forecast for January 1974 that was generally superior to persistence and climatology when evaluated over either the globe or the Northern Hemisphere, but not over smaller regions.

Spar, J.↗

The effect of surface boundary conditions on the climate generated by a coarse-mesh general circulation model

A hierarchy of experiments was run, starting with an all water planet with zonally symmetric sea surface temperatures, then adding, one at a time, flat continents, mountains, surface physics, and realistic sea surface temperatures. The model was run with the sun fixed at a perpetual January. Ensemble means and standard deviations were computed and the t-test was used to determine the statistical significance of the results. The addition of realistic surface physics does not affect the model climatology to as large as extent as does the addition of mountains. Departures from zonal symmetry of the SST field result in a better simulation of the real atmosphere.

Cohen, C.↗

Polarimetric backscattering from sea ice

Polarimetric backscattering from sea ice is presented. Theoretical models for backscattering are first presented for various ice types. Then, theoretical results are compared with experimental data for new thin ice, first-year ice, and multi-year ice. Sea ice is modeled as a layer medium containing random scatterers and rough interfaces. For multi-year sea ice with snow cover, the sea ice layer is modeled as an ice background with embedded spheroidal air bubbles and the snow layer as air with ice grains. The hummocky topography on multi-year ice is characterized by a Gaussian distribution which has an averaging effect on backscattering coefficients. First-year sea ice is described by an ice medium hosting ellipsoidal brine inclusions. These inclusions are oriented preferentially in the vertical direction due to the columnar structure of first-year sea ice. Azimuthally, the orientation of the brine pockets are random corresponding to the random c-axes in sea ice, unless the axes are oriented by sea currents. For thin ice in newly opened leads, it has been observed that there exists a thin brine layer with very high salinity on the top surface of the new ice. This brine layer is depicted as a medium with high permittivity which can significantly affect electromagnetic scattering signatures from the lower thin ice layer, with a higher fractional volume of brine inclusions due to higher salinity as compared to thick first-year sea ice. The rough medium interfaces are described as Gaussian rough surfaces characterized by root-mean-square heights and surface correlation lengths. The contribution from rough surface, calculated under the Kirchhoff approximation or small perturbation method, is assumed to be independent from volume scattering. The total loss including absorption and scattering losses in the scattering media is represented by the imaginary part of effective permittivity obtained from the strong fluctuation theory. The polarimetric scattering coefficients for different ice types are then derived under the distorted Born approximation.

Nghiem, S. V.↗

Multiple GISS AGCM Hindcasts and MSU Versions of 1979-1998

Multiple realizations of the 1979-1998 time period have been simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GISS AGCM) to explore its responsiveness to accumulated forcings, particularly over sensitive agricultural regions. A microwave radiative transfer postprocessor has produced the AGCM's lower tropospheric, tropospheric and lower stratospheric brightness temperature (Tb) time series for correlations with the various Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) time series available. MSU maps of monthly means and anomalies were also used to assess the AGCM's mean annual cycle and regional variability. Seven realizations by the AGCM were forced by observed sea surface temperatures (sst) through 1992 to gather rough standard deviations associated with internal model variability. Subsequent runs hindcast January 1979 through April 1998 with an accumulation of forcings: observed ssts, greenhouse gases, stratospheric volcanic aerosols. stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and tropospheric sulfate and black carbon aerosols. The goal of narrowing gaps between AGCM and MSU time series was complicated by MSU time series, by Tb simulation concerns and by unforced climatic variability in the AGCM and in the real world. Lower stratospheric Tb correlations between the AGCM and MSU for 1979-1998 reached as high as 0.91 +/-0.16 globally with sst, greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosol, stratospheric ozone forcings and tropospheric aerosols. Mid-tropospheric Tb correlations reached as high as 0.66 +/-.04 globally and 0.84 +/-.02 in the tropics. Oceanic lower tropospheric Tb correlations similarly reached 0.61 +/-.06 globally and 0.79 +/-.02 in the tropics. Of the sensitive agricultural areas considered, Nordeste in northeastern Brazil was simulated best with mid-tropospheric Tb correlations up to 0.75 +/- .03. The two other agricultural regions, in Africa and in the northern mid-latitudes, suffered from higher levels of non-sst variability. Zimbabwe had a maximum mid-tropospheric correlation of 0.54 +/- 0.11 while the U.S. Cornbelt had only 0.25 +/- .10. Precipitation and surface temperature performance are also examined over these regions. Correlations of MSU and AGCM time series mostly improved with addition of explicit atmospheric forcings in zonal bands but not in agricultural regional bins each encompassing only six AGCM gridcells.

Shah, Kathryn Pierce↗

Non-Tidal Non-Seasonal Oceanic Mass Redistribution Estimated from the TOPEX/Poseidon Observation

Topex/Poseidon altimetry data are used to estimate the non-tidal mass redistribution as a function of space-time. The goal is to study the contribution of ocean circulations in the geodynamic effects including Earth's rotational and gravitational variations. We examine the non-seasonal anomalies at monthly sampling rate over the T/P span of eight years, concentrating especially on interannual variabilities. Since the sea-surface height data obtained from altimetry is the combined effect of steric change (primarily thermal effect) and the mass flux, and because the former has zero contribution to the geodynamic effects, one needs to do a so-called steric correction by removing from the altimetry data the steric contributions. We achieve it using multiyear monthly sea-surface temperature maps, together with monthly "climatology" for mixed-layer depth maps for mean-months of the year. We analyze both sets of the altimetry data and the steric correction data using the empirical orthogonal function/principal component analysis (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean), and examine the most important modes, either globally or regionally. In particular, the ENSO in the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans exhibits the most prominent pattern. The net mass transport after the steric correction can then be compared with: (1) ocean general circulation model outputs for the same period of time (such as from POCM-4B); (2) non-atmospheric Earth rotation variations obtained from space geodesy data and atmospheric angular momentum data; (3) non-atmospheric low-degree gravitational variations from satellite-laser-ranging observations and global atmospheric data.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Single and Double ITCZ in Aqua-Planet Models with Globally and Temporally Uniform Sea Surface Temperature and Solar Insolation: An Interpretation

Previous studies (Chao 2000, Chao and Chen 2001, Kirtman and Schneider 2000, Sumi 1992) have shown that, by means of one of several model design changes, the structure of the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model with globally uniform SST and solar angle (U-SST-SA) can change between a single ITCZ at the equator and a double ITCZ straddling the equator. These model design changes include switching to a different cumulus parameterization scheme (e.g., from relaxed Arakawa Schubert scheme (RAS) to moist convective adjustment scheme (MCA)), changes within the cumulus parameterization scheme, and changes in other aspects of the model, such as horizontal resolution. Sometimes only one component of the double ITCZ shows up; but still this is an ITCZ away from the equator, quite distinct from a single ITCZ over the equator. Since these model results were obtained by different investigators using different models which have yielded reasonable general circulation, they are considered as reliable. Chao and Chen (2001; hereafter CC01) have made an initial attempt to interpret these findings based on the concept of rotational ITCZ attractors that they introduced. The purpose of this paper is to offer a more complete interpretation.

Chao, Winston C.↗

How Much Global Burned Area Can Be Forecast on Seasonal Time Scales Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate prior to the onset of the fire season. Here we systematically evaluated the degree to which annual burned area from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) can be predicted using SSTs from 14 different ocean regions. We found that about 48 of global burned area can be forecast with a correlation coefficient that is significant at a p < 0.01 level using a single ocean climate index (OCI) 3 or more months prior to the month of peak burning. Continental regions where burned area had a higher degree of predictability included equatorial Asia, where 92% of the burned area exceeded the correlation threshold, and Central America, where 86% of the burned area exceeded this threshold. Pacific Ocean indices describing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation were more important than indices from other ocean basins, accounting for about 1/3 of the total predictable global burned area. A model that combined two indices from different oceans considerably improved model performance, suggesting that fires in many regions respond to forcing from more than one ocean basin. Using OCI-burned area relationships and a clustering algorithm, we identified 12 hotspot regions in which fires had a consistent response to SST patterns. Annual burned area in these regions can be predicted with moderate confidence levels, suggesting operational forecasts may be possible with the aim of improving ecosystem management.

Chen, Yang↗

Dominant Cloud Controlling Factors for Low-Level Cloud Fraction: Subtropical Versus Extratropical Oceans

To improve cloud feedback understanding and simulation, observations have been used to quantify the rate of change of cloud radiative properties as a function of specific environmental metrics (or cloud controlling factors; CCFs). The study focuses on low-level cloud dominated regions during 2006–2010. For each ocean gridpoint, Spearman's rank correlation coefficients of daily mean observed cloud fraction versus (a) 10-m wind, (b) sensible heat flux (SHF), (c) sea surface temperature, (d) estimated inversion strength (EIS), (e) 850 hPa vertical velocity, and (f) the M parameter (Δ𝜃 800hPa skin ) are sorted to identify the dominant CCFs in both extratropics (30°–60°N/S) and subtropics (30°S–30°N). A novel map for visualizing dominant CCFs for low-level cloud fraction reveals that: Δ𝜃 800hPa skin dominates in the subtropical stratocumulus regions while 10-m winds dominate in shallow cumulus regions but in the extratropics, a different inversion structure diagnostic (EIS) dominates, while SHF dominates in western boundary current areas.

cloud controlling factor↗

Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard from Icebridge Acquisitions in 2009: Estimates and Comparisons with ICEsat

During the spring of 2009, the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) system on the IceBridge mission acquired cross-basin surveys of surface elevations of Arctic sea ice. In this paper, the total freeboard derived from four 2000 km transects are examined and compared with those from the 2009 ICESat campaign. Total freeboard, the sum of the snow and ice freeboards, is the elevation of the air-snow interface above the local sea surface. Prior to freeboard retrieval, signal dependent range biases are corrected. With data from a near co-incident outbound and return track on 21 April, we show that our estimates of the freeboard are repeatable to within 4 cm but dependent locally on the density and quality of sea surface references. Overall difference between the ATM and ICESat freeboards for the four transects is 0.7 (8.5) cm (quantity in bracket is standard deviation), with a correlation of 0.78 between the data sets of one hundred seventy-eight 50 km averages. This establishes a level of confidence in the use of ATM freeboards to provide regional samplings that are consistent with ICESat. In early April, mean freeboards are 41 cm and 55 cm over first year and multiyear sea ice (MYI), respectively. Regionally, the lowest mean ice freeboard (28 cm) is seen on 5 April where the flight track sampled the large expanse of seasonal ice in the western Arctic. The highest mean freeboard (71 cm) is seen in the multiyear ice just west of Ellesmere Island from 21 April. The relatively large unmodeled variability of the residual sea surface resolved by ATM elevations is discussed.

Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM)↗

Experimental measurement and theoretical modeling of microwave scattering and the structure of the sea surface influencing radar observations from space

The electromagnetic bias is an error present in radar altimetry of the ocean due to the non-uniform reflection from wave troughs and crests. A study of the electromagnetic bias became necessary to permit error reduction in mean sea level measurements of satellite radar altimeters. Satellite radar altimeters have been used to find the upper and lower bounds for the electromagnetic bias. This report will present a theory using physical optics scattering and an empirical model of the short wave modulation to predict the electromagnetic bias. The predicted electromagnetic bias will be compared to measurements at C and Ku bands.

Arnold, David↗

Dynamical predictability of monthly means

The concept of predictability which is conditioned by synoptic-scale disturbance instabilities is extended to that of time averages, which are determined by low-frequency planetary wave predictability, in an attempt to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed, nonfluctuating external forcings. Sixty-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperatures, snow, sea ice and soil moisture are carried out, where the rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is greater than 15 m/sec. It is found that while the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from mostly different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, variances for days 31-60 are not so distinguishable. These results suggest that the evolution of long waves remains predictable for between one month and 45 days.

Shukla, J.↗

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)↗

Bayesian Estimation of Precipitation from Satellite Passive Microwave Observations Using Combined Radar-Radiometer Retrievals

Precipitation estimation from satellite passive microwave radiometer observations is a problem that does not have a unique solution that is insensitive to errors in the input data. Traditionally, to make this problem well posed, a priori information derived from physical models or independent, high-quality observations is incorporated into the solution. In the present study, a database of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures is constructed to serve as a priori information in a passive microwave radiometer algorithm. The precipitation profiles are derived from a Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar radiometer algorithm, and the brightness temperatures are TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) observed. Because the observed brightness temperatures are consistent with those derived from a radiative transfer model embedded in the combined algorithm, the precipitation brightness temperature database is considered to be physically consistent. The database examined here is derived from the analysis of a month-long record of TRMM data that yields more than a million profiles of precipitation and associated brightness temperatures. These profiles are clustered into a tractable number of classes based on the local sea surface temperature, a radiometer-based estimate of the echo-top height (the height beyond which the reflectivity drops below 17 dBZ), and brightness temperature principal components. For each class, the mean precipitation profile, brightness temperature principal components, and probability of occurrence are determined. The precipitation brightness temperature database supports a radiometer-only algorithm that incorporates a Bayesian estimation methodology. In the Bayesian framework, precipitation estimates are weighted averages of the mean precipitation values corresponding to the classes in the database, with the weights being determined according to the similarity between the observed brightness temperature principal components and the brightness temperature principal components of the classes. Because the classes are stratified by the sea surface temperature and the echo-top-height estimator, the number of classes that are considered for retrieval is significantly smaller than the total number of classes, making the algorithm computationally efficient. The radiometer-only algorithm is applied to TMI observations, and precipitation estimates are compared with combined TRMM precipitation radar (PR) TMI reference estimates. The TMI-only algorithm, supported by the empirically derived database, produces estimates that are more consistent with the reference values than the precipitation estimates from the version-6 TRMM facility TMI algorithm. Cloud-resolving model simulations are used to assign a latent heating profile to each precipitation profile in the empirically derived database, making it possible to estimate latent heating using the radiometer-only algorithm. Although the evaluation of latent heating estimates in this study is preliminary, because realistic conditional probability distribution functions are attached to latent heating structures in the algorithm s database, a generally positive impact on latent heating estimation from passive microwave observations is expected.

Grecu, Mircea↗

Radar altimeter mean return waveforms from near-normal-incidence ocean surface scattering

Under assumptions common in radar altimetry, the mean backscattered return power for a short-pulse radar and near-normal-incidence scattering from a rough ocean surface is given by the convolution of several terms. For a nearly Gaussian transmitted pulse shape scattered from a nearly Gaussian distributed sea surface, a small-argument series expansion of one of the terms within the convolution leads to a several-term power series expansion for the mean return waveform. Specific expressions are given for the first four terms. These results, which require much less computer time than would the otherwise necessary numerical convolution, are useful for data analysis from current or past radar altimeters and for design studies of future systems. Several representative results are presented for an idealized Seasat radar altimeter.

Hayne, G. S.↗

Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

Hanna, A. F.↗