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At least 235 records · Page 13

On a numerical sufficiency test for monotonic convergence of finite element models

Finite element analyses characterized by monotonic convergence include the discipline for meaningful measurements of convergence rate and consequently economical extrapolation. Few proposers of element models guarantee monotonic convergence for their elements. Thus, a need exists for an automatic test to classify available element models. This paper describes such a test - a test can be performed using a digital computer to guarantee that a particular element model imbues monotonicity. It describes the test and its basis. It examines seven element models for a rectangular membrane to illustrate the value of the tests. Besides confirming results already known, the application yields new data. It 'proves' monotonicity for two improved models, defines the range of element proportions for which another element can be guaranteed to exhibit monotonicity, and suggests that another element is deficient. In the special case of absolutely convergent membrane displacement models, proof of monotonicity is a necessary and sufficient condition to insure that upper bound estimates of strain energy are developed. Accordingly, the test furnishes a proof of bound solutions independently of requirements on displacement continuity the element basis may or may not satisfy.

Melosh, R. J.↗

USA Crop Yield Estimation with MODIS NDVI: Are Remotely Sensed Models Better Than Simple Trend Analyses?

Crop yield forecasting is performed monthly during the growing season by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The underpinnings are long-established probability surveys reliant on farmers’ feedback in parallel with biophysical measurements. Over the last decade though, satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been used to corroborate the survey information. This is facilitated through the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies/Global Agricultural Monitoring system, which provides open access to pertinent real-time normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Hence, two relatively straightforward MODIS-based modeling methods are employed operationally. The first model constitutes mid-season timing based on the maximum peak NDVI value, while the second is reflective of late-season timing by integrating accumulated NDVI over a threshold value. Corn model results nationally show the peak NDVI method provides a R^(2) of 0.88 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 3.5%. The accumulated method, using an optimally derived 0.58 NDVI threshold, improves the performance to 0.93 and 2.7%, respectively. Both these models outperform simple trend analysis, which is 0.48 and 7.4%, correspondingly. For soybeans the R^(2) results of the peak NDVI model are 0.62, and 0.73 for the accumulated using a 0.56 threshold. CVs are 6.8% and 5.7%, respectively. Spring wheat’s R2performance with the accumulated NDVI model is 0.60 but just 0.40 with peak NDVI. The soybean and spring wheat models perform similarly to trend analysis. Winter wheat and upland cotton show poor model performance, regardless of method. Ultimately, corn yield forecasting derived from MODIS imagery is robust, and there are circumstances when forecasts for soybeans and spring wheat have merit too.

crop yield↗

Modeling and Flight Data Analysis of Spacecraft Dynamics with a Large Solar Array Paddle

The Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) was launched on January 24 2006 and has been operated successfully since then. This satellite has the attitude dynamics characterized by three large flexible structures, four large moving components, and stringent attitude/pointing stability requirements. In particular, it has one of the largest solar array paddles. Presented in this paper are flight data analyses and modeling of spacecraft attitude motion induced by the large solar array paddle. On orbit attitude dynamics was first characterized and summarized. These characteristic motions associated with the solar array paddle were identified and assessed. These motions are thermally induced motion, the pitch excitation by the paddle drive, and the role excitation. The thermally induced motion and the pitch excitation by the paddle drive were modeled and simulated to verify the mechanics of the motions. The control law updates implemented to mitigate the attitude vibrations are also reported.

Iwata, Takanori↗

ERTS-1 imagery use in reconnaissance prospecting: Evaluation of commercial utility of ERTS-1 imagery in structural reconnaissance for minerals and petroleum

The author has identified the following significant results. This study was performed to investigate applications of ERTS-1 imagery in commercial reconnaissance for mineral and hydrocarbon resources. ERTS-1 imagery collected over five areas in North America (Montana; Colorado; New Mexico-West Texas; Superior Province, Canada; and North Slope, Alaska) has been analyzed for data content including linears, lineaments, and curvilinear anomalies. Locations of these features were mapped and compared with known locations of mineral and hydrocarbon accumulations. Results were analyzed in the context of a simple-shear, block-coupling model. Data analyses have resulted in detection of new lineaments, some of which may be continental in extent, detection of many curvilinear patterns not generally seen on aerial photos, strong evidence of continental regmatic fracture patterns, and realization that geological features can be explained in terms of a simple-shear, block-coupling model. The conculsions are that ERTS-1 imagery is of great value in photogeologic/geomorphic interpretations of regional features, and the simple-shear, block-coupling model provides a means of relating data from ERTS imagery to structures that have controlled emplacement of ore deposits and hydrocarbon accumulations, thus providing a basis for a new approach for reconnaissance for mineral, uranium, gas, and oil deposits and structures.

Saunders, D. F.↗

Spectrum of IC 2149 and its central star

Although the asymmetric optical image of IC 2149 does not fall into any standard morphologies (Balick et al. 1993), the overall shape and its radio frequency image show a bilateral symmetry. The central star of spectral class O7.5 is a remarkable object with a rich spectrum showing many Fe ions. We discuss this spectrum in detail. The nebula has been studied utilizing our theoretical photoionization models. Detailed analyses of spectral data are done in both the UV region (lambda less than 3000 A; IUE) and the optical region (3500 A approximately 10500 A; the Hamilton Echelle at Lick Observatory). The plasma diagnostics suggest an electron temperature of 9000 approximately 10,000 K and an electron density near 5600 cm. Our model calculations were carried out with due regard to the above plasma diagnostics. The observations can be interpreted by a model of IC 2149 which consists of two components (an equatorial ring and a polar cone), but the total emission is dominated by the relatively denser equatorial shell. Carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen appear to be depleted by a factor of about 3; ratios of other elements are also lower than in the Sun.

Feibelman, Walter A.↗

TPS Certification by Analysis: Model-Driven Characterization of Properties and Failure in Woven Thermal Protection Systems

Woven, ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials provide a robust option for aggressive (re)entries and thus have been baselined for the upcoming Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission's Earth Entry System (EES). The reliability requirements for MSR-EES necessitate understanding of material property variability, which could be significant given the complex structure and anisotropic nature of properties in TPS weaves, as well as the response to potential impact with micrometeoroids or orbital debris during the EES re-entry. The TPS Certification by Analysis effort within the Entry Systems Modeling project seeks to provide computational models and analyses that support the certification against such material-based risks. For the present talk, focus will be given to the characterization of baseline woven TPS material properties and mechanical failure limits, which entails (1) use of computational techniques (e.g., machine learning) to interpret computed tomography images of the weave to generate representative structural models and (2) application of multiscale material modeling approaches to characterize thermomechanical and failure properties.

thermal protection systems↗

TPS Certification by Analysis: Model-Driven Characterization of Properties and Failure in Woven Thermal Protection Systems

Woven, ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials provide a robust option for aggressive (re)entries and thus have been baselined for the upcoming Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission’s Earth Entry System (EES). The reliability requirements for MSR-EES necessitate understanding of material property variability, which could be significant given the complex structure and anisotropic nature of properties in TPS weaves, as well as the response to potential impact with micrometeoroids or orbital debris during the EES re-entry. The TPS Certification by Analysis effort within the Entry Systems Modeling project seeks to provide computational models and analyses that support the certification against such material-based risks. For the present talk, focus will be given to the characterization of baseline woven TPS material properties and mechanical failure limits, which entails (1) use of computational techniques (e.g., machine learning) to interpret computed tomography images of the weave to generate representative structural models and (2) application of multiscale material modeling approaches to characterize thermomechanical and failure properties.

Justin B. Haskins↗

Unlocking expanded flagellin perception through rational receptor engineering

Abstract The surface-localized receptor kinase FLS2 detects the flg22 epitope from bacterial flagella. FLS2 is conserved across land plants, but bacterial pathogens exhibit polymorphic flg22 epitopes. Most FLS2 homologues possess narrow perception ranges, but four with expanded perception have been identified. Using diversity analyses, AlphaFold modelling and amino acid properties, key residues enabling expanded recognition were mapped to FLS2’s concave surface, interacting with the co-receptor and polymorphic flg22 residues. Synthetic biology enabled engineering of expanded recognition from QvFLS2 (Quercus variabilis) into a homologue with canonical perception. A similar approach enabled transfer ofAgrobacteriumperception from FLS2 XL (Vitis riparia) into VrFLS2. Evolutionary analyses across three plant orders showed residues under positive selection aligning with those binding the co-receptor and flg22’s C terminus, suggesting more alleles with expanded perception exist. Our experimental data enabled the identification of specific receptor amino acid properties and AlphaFold3 metrics that facilitate predicting FLS2–flg22 recognition. This study provides a framework for rational receptor engineering to enhance pathogen restriction.

Plant Sciences↗

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Derivation of satellite wind model functions using operational surface wind analyses - An altimeter example

One year of global surface wind products from multiple operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast/analysis systems are used as comparison data to derive an empirical wind speed model function for the Geosat altimeter. The resulting model function is nearly identical to the modified Chelton-Wentz model for wind speeds from 4.5 to 15 m/s. Highly skewed distributions at low wind speeds are consistent with specular reflections and antenna mispointing errors hypothesized by others on the basis of extremely limited data. Mesoscale variability in the wind field and synoptic scale errors in the NWP products are shown to account for about 30 percent of the observed scatter of sigma(0) at each wind speed. The remaining scatter is largest at low winds, and decreases to a nearly constant value of about 12 percent at speeds greater than 7 m/s. Model function uncertainty expressed more traditionally in units of wind speed is examined for historical model functions as well as the present NWP-based model. The historical models have significant biases at high wind speeds owing to the lack of comparison in situ data used in their construction. The present study demonstrates that modern operational NWP surface wind products are sufficiently accurate to allow development of fully empirical model functions and associated error analyses.

Freilich, Michael H.↗

Comparison of Polar Motion Excitation Series Derived from GRACE and from Analyses of Geophysical Fluids

Three sets of degree-2, order-1 harmonics of the gravity field, derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data processed at the Center for Space Research (CSR), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and GeoforschungsZentrum (GFZ), are used to compute polar motion excitation functions X1 and X2. The GFZ and JPL excitations and the CSR X2, excitation compare generally well with geodetically observed excitation after removal of effects of oceanic currents and atmospheric winds. The agreement considerably exceeds that from previous GRACE data releases. For the JPL series, levels of correlation with the geodetic observations and the variance explained are comparable to, but still lower than, those obtained independently from available models and analyses of the atmosphere, ocean, and land hydrology. Improvements in data quality of gravity missions are still needed to deliver even tighter constraints on mass-related excitation of polar motion.

Nastula, J.↗

Forecasting constraints on the high-z IGM thermal state from the Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation function

ABSTRACT The autocorrelation function of the Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly $\alpha$) forest flux from high-z quasars probes the small-scale structure of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The thermal state of the IGM, determined by the physics of reionization, sets the small-scale power observed in the Ly $\alpha$ forest. To explore the sensitivity of the autocorrelation function to the IGM’s thermal state, we compute the autocorrelation function from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with an instantaneous reionization model and 135 post-processed thermal states. Using mock data sets of 20 quasars, we forecast constraints on $T_0$ and $\gamma$, which characterize the post-processed IGM thermal state, at $5.4 \le z \le 6$. While this model simplifies the IGM’s thermal state, it serves as a key first step in assessing future observational prospects. We also perform an inference test on mocks and re-weight out posterior distributions to guarantee that they exhibit statistically correct behaviour. At $z = 5.4$, we find that an idealized data set constrains $T_0$ to 59 per cent and $\gamma$ to 16 per cent at the 1$\sigma$ equivalent confidence level. To explore more realistic, non-instantaneous reionization scenarios, we analyse four models combining temperature and ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations at $z = 5.8$. We find that mock data generated from a model with both temperature and UVB fluctuations can rule out a model with only temperature fluctuations at the $> 1\sigma$ level 73.9 per cent of the time.

Wolfson, Molly↗

Synergistic interactions between an upper-level jet streak and diabatic processes that influence the development of a low-level jet and a secondary coastal cyclone

A series of numerical simulations of the February 1979 Presidents Day cyclone is presented. The development of the low-level jet (LLJ) associated with the cyclone is described, and the mesoscale numerical model, initial analyses, and experimental design used in the study are discussed. Four numerical simulations are discussed and compared, including an adiabatic simulation that isolates the development of upper-level divergence along the axis of a subtropical jet streak and three other simulations that reveal the contributions of sensible and latent heat release in modifying lower-tropospheric wind fields and reducing the sea-level pressure. The formation of the LLJ is described through an evaluation of trajectories derived from the various model simulations. The effect of the LLJ on secondary cyclogenesis along the East Coast is described.

Uccellini, Louis W.↗

Cooling Technology for Large Space Telescopes

NASA's New Millennium Program funded an effort to develop a system cooling technology, which is applicable to all future infrared, sub-millimeter and millimeter cryogenic space telescopes. In particular, this technology is necessary for the proposed large space telescope Single Aperture Far-Infrared Telescope (SAFIR) mission. This technology will also enhance the performance and lower the risk and cost for other cryogenic missions. The new paradigm for cooling to low temperatures will involve passive cooling using lightweight deployable membranes that serve both as sunshields and V-groove radiators, in combination with active cooling using mechanical coolers operating down to 4 K. The Cooling Technology for Large Space Telescopes (LST) mission planned to develop and demonstrate a multi-layered sunshield, which is actively cooled by a multi-stage mechanical cryocooler, and further the models and analyses critical to scaling to future missions. The outer four layers of the sunshield cool passively by radiation, while the innermost layer is actively cooled to enable the sunshield to decrease the incident solar irradiance by a factor of more than one million. The cryocooler cools the inner layer of the sunshield to 20 K, and provides cooling to 6 K at a telescope mounting plate. The technology readiness level (TRL) of 7 will be achieved by the active cooling technology following the technology validation flight in Low Earth Orbit. In accordance with the New Millennium charter, tests and modeling are tightly integrated to advance the technology and the flight design for "ST-class" missions. Commercial off-the-shelf engineering analysis products are used to develop validated modeling capabilities to allow the techniques and results from LST to apply to a wide variety of future missions. The LST mission plans to "rewrite the book" on cryo-thermal testing and modeling techniques, and validate modeling techniques to scale to future space telescopes such as SAFIR.

DiPirro, Michael↗

Fractal Characterization of Multitemporal Scaled Remote Sensing Data

Scale is an "innate" concept in geographic information systems. It is recognized as something that is intrinsic to the ingestion, storage, manipulation, analysis, modeling, and output of space and time data within a GIS purview, yet the relative meaning and ramifications of scaling spatial and temporal data from this perspective remain enigmatic. As GISs become more sophisticated as a product of more robust software and more powerful computer systems, there is an urgent need to examine the issue of scale, and its relationship to the whole body of spatiotemporal data, as imparted in GISS. Scale is fundamental to the characterization of geo-spatial data as represented in GISS, but we have relatively little insight on the effects of, or how to measure the effects of, scale in representing multiscaled data; i.e., data that are acquired in different formats (e.g., map, digital) and exist in varying spatial, temporal, and in the case of remote sensing data, radiometric, configurations. This is particularly true in the emerging era of Integrated GISs (IGIS), wherein spatial data in a variety of formats (e.g., raster, vector) are combined with multiscaled remote sensing data, capable of performing highly sophisticated space-time data analyses and modeling. Moreover, the complexities associated with the integration of multiscaled data sets in a multitude of formats are exacerbated by the confusion of what the term "scale" is from a multidisciplinary perspective; i.e., "scale" takes on significantly different meanings depending upon one's disciplinary background and spatial perspective which can lead to substantive confusion in the input, manipulation, analyses, and output of IGISs (Quattrochi, 1993). Hence, we must begin to look at the universality of scale and begin to develop the theory, methods, and techniques necessary to advance knowledge on the "Science of Scale" across a wide number of spatial disciplines that use GISs.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Constitutive modeling for isotropic materials (HOST)

The results of the third year of work on a program which is part of the NASA Hot Section Technology program (HOST) are presented. The goals of this program are: (1) the development of unified constitutive models for rate dependent isotropic materials; and (2) the demonstration of the use of unified models in structural analyses of hot section components of gas turbine engines. The unified models selected for development and evaluation are those of Bodner-Partom and of Walker. A test procedure was developed for assisting the generation of a data base for the Bodner-Partom model using a relatively small number of specimens. This test procedure involved performing a tensile test at a temperature of interest that involves a succession of strain-rate changes. The results for B1900+Hf indicate that material constants related to hardening and thermal recovery can be obtained on the basis of such a procedure. Strain aging, thermal recovery, and unexpected material variations, however, preluded an accurate determination of the strain-rate sensitivity parameter is this exercise. The effects of casting grain size on the constitutive behavior of B1900+Hf were studied and no particular grain size effect was observed. A systematic procedure was also developed for determining the material constants in the Bodner-Partom model. Both the new test procedure and the method for determining material constants were applied to the alternate material, Mar-M247 . Test data including tensile, creep, cyclic and nonproportional biaxial (tension/torsion) loading were collected. Good correlations were obtained between the Bodner-Partom model and experiments. A literature survey was conducted to assess the effects of thermal history on the constitutive behavior of metals. Thermal history effects are expected to be present at temperature regimes where strain aging and change of microstructure are important. Possible modifications to the Bodner-Partom model to account for these effects are outlined. The use of a unified constitutive model for hot section component analyses was demonstrated by applying the Walker model and the MARC finite-element code to a B1900+Hf airfoil problem.

Chan, Kwai S.↗

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection.

histories↗

The Far-Ultraviolet Spectra of Two Hot PG1159 Stars

PG 1159 stars are hot, hydrogen-deficient (pre-) white dwarfs with atmospheres mainly composed of helium, carbon, and oxygen. The unusual surface chemistry is the result of a late helium-shell flash. Observed element abundances enable us to test stellar evolution models quantitatively with respect to their nucleosynthesis products formed near the helium-burning shell of the progenitor asymptotic giant branch stars. Because of the high effective temperatures (T(sub eff)), abundance determinations require ultraviolet spectroscopy and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium model atmosphere analyses. Up to now, we have presented results for the prototype of this spectral class and two cooler members (T(sub eff) in the range 85,000-140,000 K). Here we report on the results for two even hotter stars (PG 1520+525 and PG 1144+005, both with T(sub eff) = 150,000 K) which are the only two objects in this temperature-gravity region for which useful far-ultraviolet spectra are available, and revisit the prototype star. Previous results on the abundances of some species are confirmed, while results on others (Si, P, S) are revised. In particular, a solar abundance of sulphur is measured in contrast to earlier claims of a strong S deficiency that contradicted stellar evolution models. For the first time, we assess the abundances of Na, Al, andCl with newly constructed non-LTE model atoms. Besides the main constituents (He, C, O), we determine the abundances (or upper limits) of N, F, Ne, Na, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, Ar, and Fe. Generally, good agreement with stellar models is found.

Werner, K.↗