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At least 235 records · Page 13

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NASA NTRS1988

An experiment in software reliability: Additional analyses using data from automated replications

A study undertaken to collect software error data of laboratory quality for use in the development of credible methods for predicting the reliability of software used in life-critical applications is summarized. The software error data reported were acquired through automated repetitive run testing of three independent implementations of a launch interceptor condition module of a radar tracking problem. The results are based on 100 test applications to accumulate a sufficient sample size for error rate estimation. The data collected is used to confirm the results of two Boeing studies reported in NASA-CR-165836 Software Reliability: Repetitive Run Experimentation and Modeling, and NASA-CR-172378 Software Reliability: Additional Investigations into Modeling With Replicated Experiments, respectively. That is, the results confirm the log-linear pattern of software error rates and reject the hypothesis of equal error rates per individual fault. This rejection casts doubt on the assumption that the program's failure rate is a constant multiple of the number of residual bugs; an assumption which underlies some of the current models of software reliability. data raises new questions concerning the phenomenon of interacting faults.

Dunham, Janet R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Fusion-Enabled Pluto Orbiter and Lander

The Pluto orbiter mission proposed here is credible and exciting. The benefits to this and all outer-planet and interstellar-probe missions are difficult to overstate. The enabling technology, Direct Fusion Drive, is a unique fusion engine concept based on the Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration (PFRC) fusion reactor under development at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The truly game-changing levels of thrust and power in a modestly sized package could integrate with our current launch infrastructure while radically expanding the science capability of these missions. During this Phase I effort, we made great strides in modeling the engine efficiency, thrust, and specific impulse and analyzing feasible trajectories. Based on 2D fluid modeling of the fusion reactors outer stratum, its scrape-off-layer (SOL), we estimate achieving 2.5 to 5 N of thrust for each megawatt of fusion power, reaching a specific impulse, Isp, of about 10,000 s. Supporting this model are particle-in-cell calculations of energy transfer from the fusion products to the SOL electrons. Subsequently, this energy is transferred to the ions as they expand through the magnetic nozzle and beyond. Our point solution for the Pluto mission now delivers 1000 kg of payload to Pluto orbit in 3.75 years using 7.5 N constant thrust. This could potentially be achieved with a single 1 MW engine. The departure spiral from Earth orbit and insertion spiral to Pluto orbit require only a small portion of the total delta-V. Departing from low Earth orbit reduces mission cost while increasing available mission mass. The payload includes a lander, which utilizes a standard green propellant engine for the landing sequence. The lander has about 4 square meters of solar panels mounted on a gimbal that allows it to track the orbiter, which beams 30 to 50 kW of power using a 1080 nm laser. Optical communication provides dramatically high data rates back to Earth. Our mass modeling investigations revealed that if current high-temperature superconductors are utilized at liquid nitrogen temperatures, they drive the mass of the engine, partly because of the shielding required to maintain their critical temperature. Second generation materials are thinner but the superconductor is a very thin layer deposited on a substrate with additional layers of metallic classing. Tremendous research is being performed on a variety of these superconducting materials, and new irradiation data is now available. This raises the possibility of operating nearfuture high-temperature superconductors at a moderately low temperature to dramatically reduce the amount of shielding required. At the same time, a first generation space engine may require low-temperature superconductors, which are higher TRL and have been designed for space coils before (AMS-02 experiment for the ISS). We performed detailed analysis of the startup system and thermal conversion system components. The ideal working fluid was determined to be a blend of Helium and Xenon. No significant problems were identified with these subsystems. For the RF system, we conceived of a new, more efficient design using state-of-the-art switch amplifiers, which have the potential for 100% efficiency. This report presents details of our engine and trajectory analyses, mass modeling efforts, and updated vehicle designs.

temperature↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparative Soot Diagnostics Experiment Looks at the Smoky World of Microgravity Combustion

From an economic standpoint, soot is one of the most important combustion intermediates and products. It is a major industrial product and is the dominant medium for radiant heat transport in most flames used to generate heat and power. The nonbuoyant structure of most flames of practical interest (turbulent flames) makes the understanding of soot processes in microgravity flames important to our ability to predict fire behavior on Earth. In addition, fires in spacecraft are considered a credible possibility. To respond to this risk, NASA has flown fire (or smoke) detectors on Skylab and the space shuttles and included them in the International Space Station design. The design of these detectors, however, was based entirely on normal gravity (1g) data. The detector used in the shuttle fleet is an ionization detector, whereas the system planned for the space station uses forward scattering of near-infrared light. The ionization detector, which is similar to smoke detectors used in homes, has a comparative advantage for submicron particulates. In fact, the space shuttle model uses a separation system that makes it blind to particles larger than a micron (believed to be dust). In the larger size range, the lightscattering detector is most sensitive. Without microgravity smoke data, the difference in the particle size sensitivities of the two detectors cannot be evaluated. As part of the Comparative Soot Diagnostics (CSD) experiment, these systems were tested to determine their response to particulates generated during long periods of low gravity. This experiment provided the first such measurements toward understanding soot processes on Earth and for designing and implementing improved spacecraft smoke detection systems. The objectives of CSD were to examine how particulates form from a variety of sources and to quantify the performance of several diagnostic techniques. The sources tested included four overheated materials (paper, silicone rubber, Teflon-coated (DuPont) wire, and Kapton-coated (DuPont) wires), each tested at three heating rates, and a candle tested at three air velocities. Paper, silicone rubber, and wire insulation, materials found in spacecraft crew cabins, were selected because of their different smoke properties. The candle yielded hydrocarbon soot typical of many 1g flames. Four diagnostic techniques were employed: thermophoretic sampling collected particulates for size analysis; laser light extinction measurements near the source tallied total particulate production; and laser light scattering and ionization detector measurements far from the particulate source provided data for evaluating the performance of smoke detection systems for these particulate sources.

Urban, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Risk analysis simulation of rover operations for Mars surface exploration

Risk management advocates have long sought to directly influence the early stages of the systems engineering process through a more effective role in system design trade studies. The principal obstacle to this has been the lack of credible ways to represent and quantify mission risk—that is, a combination of the probability of mission success (“system safety”) and science value—for the project manager and the rest of the design team. If it were possible to quantify mission risk, then the effects of proposed mission and system design changes could be calculated, and along with life-cycle costs, could be used to explore the design space more extensively and select better designs. JPL has been working to build the capability to quantify the probability of mission success using a federation of diverse simulations and models, each of which contributes some vital piece of the puzzle. The initial institutional focus has been on Mars surface operations. This ensemble computing framework enables the diverse models and simulations to work together seamlessly. Recent work at JPL has demonstrated the capability to exercise this ensemble from end-to-end using an Oracle-based database to automatically move results from one model/simulation to the next stage in the analysis.

Shishko, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2005

Design Methods and Practices for Fault Prevention and Management in Spacecraft

Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) is intended to become a critical capability for all space, lunar and planetary exploration vehicles and systems at NASA. Monitoring and managing the health state of diverse components, subsystems, and systems is a difficult task that will become more challenging when implemented for long-term, evolving deployments. A key technical challenge will be to ensure that the ISHM technologies are reliable, effective, and low cost, resulting in turn in safe, reliable, and affordable missions. To ensure safety and reliability, ISHM functionality, decisions and knowledge have to be incorporated into the product lifecycle as early as possible, and ISHM must be considered as an essential element of models developed and used in various stages during system design. During early stage design, many decisions and tasks are still open, including sensor and measurement point selection, modeling and model-checking, diagnosis, signature and data fusion schemes, presenting the best opportunity to catch and prevent potential failures and anomalies in a cost-effective way. Using appropriate formal methods during early design, the design teams can systematically explore risks without committing to design decisions too early. However, the nature of ISHM knowledge and data is detailed, relying on high-fidelity, detailed models, whereas the earlier stages of the product lifecycle utilize low-fidelity, high-level models of systems and their functionality. We currently lack the tools and processes necessary for integrating ISHM into the vehicle system/subsystem design. As a result, most existing ISHM-like technologies are retrofits that were done after the system design was completed. It is very expensive, and sometimes futile, to retrofit a system health management capability into existing systems. Last-minute retrofits result in unreliable systems, ineffective solutions, and excessive costs (e.g., Space Shuttle TPS monitoring which was considered only after 110 flights and the Columbia disaster). High false alarm or false negative rates due to substandard implementations hurt the credibility of the ISHM discipline. This paper presents an overview of the current state of ISHM design,and a review of formal design methods to make recommendations about possible approaches to enable the ISHM capabilities to be designed-in at the system-level, from the very beginning of the vehicle design process.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Credible Computations: Standard and Uncertainty

The discipline of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is at a crossroad. Most of the significant advances related to computational methods have taken place. The emphasis is now shifting from methods to results. Significant efforts are made in applying CFD to solve design problems. The value of CFD results in design depends on the credibility of computed results for the intended use. The process of establishing credibility requires a standard so that there is a consistency and uniformity in this process and in the interpretation of its outcome. The key element for establishing the credibility is the quantification of uncertainty. This paper presents salient features of a proposed standard and a procedure for determining the uncertainty. A customer of CFD products - computer codes and computed results - expects the following: A computer code in terms of its logic, numerics, and fluid dynamics and the results generated by this code are in compliance with specified requirements. This expectation is fulfilling by verification and validation of these requirements. The verification process assesses whether the problem is solved correctly and the validation process determines whether the right problem is solved. Standards for these processes are recommended. There is always some uncertainty, even if one uses validated models and verified computed results. The value of this uncertainty is important in the design process. This value is obtained by conducting a sensitivity-uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis is generally defined as the procedure for determining the sensitivities of output parameters to input parameters. This analysis is a necessary step in the uncertainty analysis, and the results of this analysis highlight which computed quantities and integrated quantities in computations need to be determined accurately and which quantities do not require such attention. Uncertainty analysis is generally defined as the analysis of the effect of the uncertainties involved in all stages of a process on the final responses. There are two approaches for conducting the uncertainty analysis: experimental and computational. These analyses and approaches are briefly described.

Mehta, Unmeel B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Expansion of Check-Cases for 6DOF Simulation

This effort expands upon a previous NASA activity that developed flight simulation benchmark check-cases to include new check-cases for the Cislunar domain, comparing multiple NASA simulation tools. The results of this effort describe the benefits of standardizing inputs, simulation comparisons and describe an interactive website that enables comparison of externally provided simulation data. Participating simulations improved their software and identified implementation errors. This activity elevated simulation credibility and provided a measure of validation for the simulations actively in use for NASA’s Human Landing Systems (HLS).

Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2024

Expansion of Check-Cases for 6DOF Simulation: Appendix A

This is the Appendix containing figures of simulation output data plots for comparison from the assessment, “Expansion of Check-Cases for 6DOF Simulation”. This effort expands upon a previous NASA activity that developed flight simulation benchmark check-cases to include new check-cases for the Cislunar domain, comparing multiple NASA simulation tools. The results of this effort describe the benefits of standardizing inputs, simulation comparisons and describe an interactive website that enables comparison of externally provided simulation data. Participating simulations improved their software and identified implementation errors. This activity elevated simulation credibility and provided a measure of validation for the simulations actively in use for NASA’s Human Landing Systems (HLS).

Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2001

Effect of Under-Resolved Grids on High Order Methods

There has been much discussion on verification and validation processes for establishing the credibility of CFD simulations. Since the early 1990s, many of the aeronautical and mechanical engineering related reference journals mandated that any accepted articles in numerical simulations (without known solutions to compared with) need to perform a minimum of one level of grid refinement and time step reduction. Due to the difficulty in analysis, the effect of under-resolved grids and the nonlinear behavior of available spatial discretizations, are scarcely discussed in the literature. Here, an under-resolved numerical simulation is one where the grid spacing being used is too coarse to resolve the smallest physically relevant scales of the chosen continuum governing equations that are of interest to the numerical modeler. With the advent of new developments in fourth-order or higher spatial schemes, it has become common to regard high order schemes as more accurate, reliable and require less grid points. The danger comes when one tries to perform computations with the coarsest grid possible while still hoping to maintain numerical results sufficiently accurate for complex flows, and especially, data-limited problems. On one hand, high order methods when applies to highly coupled multidimensional complex nonlinear problems might have different stability, convergence and reliability behavior than their well studied low order counterparts, especially for nonlinear schemes such as TVD, MUSCL with limiters, ENO, WENO and discrete Galerkin. On the other hand, high order methods involve more operation counts and systematic grid convergence study can be time consuming and prohibitively expansive. At the same time it is difficult to fully understand or categorize the different nonlinear behavior of finite discretizations, especially at the limits of under-resolution when different types of bifurcation phenomena might occur, depending on the combination of grid spacings, time steps, initial conditions and numerical treatments of boundary conditions.

Yee, H. C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

TRMM Latent Heating Retrieval and Comparisons with Field Campaigns and Large-Scale Analyses

Rainfall production is a fundamental process within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it represents both a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, and its energetics corollary, latent heating (LH), is one of the principal sources of atmospheric diabatic heating. Latent heat release itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The vertical distribution of LH has a strong influence on the atmosphere, controlling large-scale tropical circulations, exciting and modulating tropical waves, maintaining the intensities of tropical cyclones, and even providing the energetics of midlatitude cyclones and other mobile midlatitude weather systems. Moreover, the processes associated with LH result in significant non-linear changes in atmospheric radiation through the creation, dissipation and modulation of clouds and precipitation. Yanai et al. (1973) utilized the meteorological data collected from a sounding network to present a pioneering work on thermodynamic budgets, which are referred to as the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). Yanai's paper motivated the development of satellite-based LH algorithms and provided a theoretical background for imposing large-scale advective forcing into cloud-resolving models (CRMs). These CRM-simulated LH and Q1 data have been used to generate the look-up tables used in LH algorithms. This paper examines the retrieval, validation, and application of LH estimates based on rain rate quantities acquired from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM). TRMM was launched in November 1997 as a joint enterprise between the American and Japanese space agencies -- with overriding goals of providing accurate four-dimensional estimates of rainfall and LH over the global Tropics and subtropics equatorward of 35o. Other literature has acknowledged the achievement of the first goal of obtaining an accurate rainfall climatology. This paper describes the second major goal of obtaining credible LH estimates as well as their applications within TRMM's zone of coverage, the standard TRMM LH products, and areas for further improvement.

latent heating↗

NASA NTRS2024

Updates to NASA’s Break-in-Prebreathe Rules Due to Type II Decompression Sickness Risk Considerations

INTRODUCTION. Investigation of a central neurological decompression sickness (DCS) case during ground testing at Johnson Space Center identified a break-in-prebreathe (BIP) 13 minutes prior to depressurization as the leading credible cause despite applicable prebreathe payback rules being followed. Applicable NASA rules, for ground and flight, directed 2:1 payback of breaks up to 10 mins in duration, regardless of when a break occurs relative to depress. Full restart of prebreathe is directed following breaks > 10 min. The adequacy of NASA’s BIP rules was evaluated prior to resuming hypobaric ground testing or ISS extravehicular activities. METHODS. The following information sources were reviewed prior to formulating recommendations: i) Type II DCS case report and investigation findings; ii) documented rationale for existing flight rules, iii) consultations with subject matter experts involved in definition of existing flight rules (several of whom had since left NASA), iv) relevant published literature, v) model estimates of tissue on-gassing and off-gassing, and vi) NASA’s operational experience with late breaks in prebreathe. RESULTS. NASA’s nominal prebreathe protocols are validated via extensive ground testing to ensure DCS risk is reduced to within acceptable limits. Conversely, there exists a paucity of data, no validated models, and limited documentation regarding BIP risk for NASA prebreathe protocols. Flight rules implemented for shuttle and later ISS are based primarily on expert opinion and an assumption of symmetric on-gassing and off-gassing, which would make 2:1 payback a conservative mitigation for a BIP. Assumption of exponential gas kinetics makes late breaks higher risk, or require greater payback, than earlier breaks. Two BIPs have occurred using the current ISS prebreathe protocol, each of which was followed by greater than 2:1 payback and at least 59 minutes of 100% O2 pre-depress. No DCS cases have been reported during shuttle or ISS EVA operations. DISCUSSION. Interim changes were implemented to protect against late breaks during ground and flight prebreathes by ensuring negligible difference in conservatively modeled ppN2 pre-depress compared to nominal validated protocols. Additional documentation and literature review as well as chamber test planning are ongoing with the objective of further ground and flight rule updates and validation of a BIP risk model.

Prebreathe↗

NASA NTRS2024

Updates to NASA’s Break-in-Prebreathe Rules Due to Type II Decompression Sickness Risk Considerations

Prebreathe↗

NASA NTRS1997

Activation and proliferation of lymphocytes and other mammalian cells in microgravity

The experimental findings reviewed in this chapter support the following conclusions: Proliferation. Human T-lymphocytes, associated with monocytes as accessory cells, show dramatic changes in the centrifuge, in the clinostat and in space. In free-floating cells the mitogenic response is depressed by 90% in microgravity, whereas in cells attached to a substratum activation is enhanced by 100% compared to 1-G ground and inflight controls. The duration of phase G1 of the mitotic cycle of HeLa cells is reduced in hypergravity, resulting in an increased proliferation rate. Other systems like Friend cells and WI38 human embryonic lung cells do not show significant changes. Genetic expression and signal transduction. T-lymphocytes and monocytes show important changes in the expression of cytokines like interleukin-1, interleukin-2, interferon-gamma and tumor necrosis factor. The data from space experiments in Spacelab, Space Shuttle mid-deck, and Biokosmos have helped to clarify certain aspects of the mechanism of T-cell activation. Epidermoid A431 cells show changes in the genetic expression of the proto-oncogenes c-fos and c-jun in the clinostat and in sounding rockets. Membrane function, in particular the binding of ligates as first messengers of a signal, is not changed in most of the cell systems in microgravity. Morphology and Mortility. Free cells, lymphocytes in particular, are able to move and form aggregates in microgravity, indicating that cell-cell contacts and cell communications do take place in microgravity. Dramatic morphological and ultrastructural changes are not detected in cells cultured in microgravity. Important experiments with single mammalian cells, including immune cells, were carried out recently in three Spacelab flights, (SL-J, D-2, and IML-2 in 1992, 1993, and 1994, respectively). The results of the D-2 mission have been published in ref. 75; those of the IML-2 mission in ref. 76. Finally, many cell biology experiments in space have suffered in the past from a lack of adequate controls (like 1-G centrifuges) and of proper experimental conditions (like well-controlled temperature). In this respect the availability of Biorack, outfitted with proper incubators with 1-G control centrifuge as well as a glovebox with a microscope, is a great advantage. It is also desirable that cell biology experiments in space are accompanied or even preceded by a program of ground-based investigations in the fast rotating clinostat and in the centrifuge, and that preparatory experiments be done in parabolic flights and sounding rockets, whenever possible. Proper publication of the results of space experiments is another important need. A great number of data have been published in proceedings and reports that are not available to the broad scientific community. To guarantee the credibility and the international recognition of space biology it is important that the results be published in international, peer reviewed journals.

manned↗

NASA NTRS2019

Tests of General Relativity With the Binary Black Hole Signals from the LIGO-Virgo Catalog GWTC-1

The detection of gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo provides an opportunity to test general relativity in a regime that is inaccessible to traditional astronomical observations and laboratory tests. We present four tests of the consistency of the data with binary black hole gravitational waveforms predicted by general relativity. One test subtracts the best-fit waveform from the data and checks the consistency of the residual with detector noise. The second test checks the consistency of the low- and high-frequency parts of the observed signals. The third test checks that phenomenological deviations introduced in the waveform model (including in the post-Newtonian coefficients) are consistent with 0. The fourth test constrains modifications to the propagation of gravitational waves due to a modified dispersion relation, including that from a massive graviton. We present results both for individual events and also results obtained by combining together particularly strong events from the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, as collected in the catalog GWTC-1. We do not find any inconsistency of the data with the predictions of general relativity and improve our previously presented combined constraints by factors of 1.1 to 2.5. In particular, we bound the mass of the graviton to be 𝑚𝑔≤4.7×10 −23 eV/𝑐 2 (90% credible level), an improvement of a factor of 1.6 over our previously presented results. Additionally, we check that the four gravitational-wave events published for the first time in GWTC-1 do not lead to stronger constraints on alternative polarizations than those published previously.

B P Abbott↗

NASA NTRS1986

Experiments in software reliability - Life-critical applications

The paper discusses four reliability data gathering experiments which were conducted using a small sample of programs for two problems having ultrareliability requirements, n-version programming for fault detection, and repetitive run modeling for failure and fault rate estimation. The experimental results agree with those of Nagel and Skrivan in that the program error rates suggest an approximate log-linear pattern and the individual faults occurred with significantly different error rates. Additional analysis of the experimental data raises new questions concerning the phenomenon of interacting faults. This phenomenon may provide one explanation for software reliability decay. The fourth experiment underscored the difficulty in distinguishing between observations of deficiencies in the design of the algorithm and observations of software faults for real-time process control software. These experiments are a part of a program of serial experiments being pursued by the System Validation Methods of NASA-Langley Research Center to find a means of credibly performing reliability evaluations of flight control software.

Dunham, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level activities.

Hunt, Charles D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

A NICER view of PSR J0030+0541: Millisecond Pulsar Parameter Estimation

We report on Bayesian parameter estimation of the mass and equatorial radius of the millisecond pulsar PSRJ0030+0451, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray spectral timing event data. We perform relativistic ray-tracing of thermal emission from hot regions of the pulsar’s surface. We assume two distinct hot regions based on two clear pulsed components in the phase-folded pulse-profile data; we explore a number of forms (morphologies and topologies) for each hot region, inferring their parameters in addition to the stellar mass and radius. For the family of models considered, the evidence (prior predictive probability of the data) strongly favors a model that permits both hot regions to be located in the same rotational hemisphere. Models wherein both hot regions are assumed to be simply connected circular single-temperature spots, in particular those where the spots are assumed to be reflection-symmetric with respect to the stellar origin, are strongly disfavored. For the inferred configuration, one hot region subtends an angular extent of only a few degrees (in spherical coordinates with origin at the stellar center) and we are insensitive to other structural details; the second hot region is far more azimuthally extended in the form of a narrow arc, thus requiring a larger number of parameters to describe. The inferred mass M and equatorial radius Req are, respectively, -1.34+ M 0.16 0.15 and-12.71+ km 1.19 1.14 , while the compactness = -GM R c 0.156+ eq 2 0.010 0.008 is more tightly constrained; the credible interval bounds reported here are approximately the 16% and 84% quantiles in marginal posterior mass.

T E Riley↗