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NASA NTRS2021

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗

NASA NTRS2015

Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

Diagnostics↗

NASA NTRS1994

Comparison and analysis of aircraft measurements and mesoscale atmospheric chemistry model simulations of tropospheric ozone

The Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) has been applied to several of the field experiments which were part of the Acid Models Operational and Diagnostic Evaluation Study (Acid MODES). The experiment which was of particular interest with regards to ozone photochemistry involved horizontal zig-zag flight patterns (ZIPPER) over an area from the eastern Ohio River valley to the Adirondacks of New York. Model simulations by both the standard resolution RADM (delta x = 80 km) and the nested grid RADM (delta x = 26.7 km) compare well to measurements in the low emission regions in central Pennsylvania and upstate New York, but underestimate in the high emission upper Ohio River valley. The nested simulation does considerably better, however, than the coarse grid simulation in terms of horizontal pattern and concentration magnitudes. Analysis of NO(x) and HO(x) concentrations and photochemical products rates of ozone show that the model's response to large point source emissions is very unsystematic both spatially and temporally. This is due to the models instability to realistically simulate the small scale (subgrid) gradients in precursor concentrations in and around large point source plumes.

Pleim, Jonathan E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Diagnostics of electron-heated solar flare models. III - Effects of tapered loop geometry and preheating

A series of hydrodynamic numerical simulations of nonthermal electron-heated solar flare atmospheres and their corresponding soft X-ray Ca XIX emission-line profiles, under the conditions of tapered flare loop geometry and/or a preheated atmosphere, is presented. The degree of tapering is parameterized by the magnetic mirror ratio, while the preheated atmosphere is parameterized by the initial upper chromospheric pressure. In a tapered flare loop, it is found that the upward motion of evaporated material is faster compared with the case where the flare loop is uniform. This is due to the diverging nozzle seen by the upflowing material. In the case where the flare atmosphere is preheated and the flare geometry is uniform, the response of the atmosphere to the electron collisional heating is slow. The upward velocity of the hydrodynamic gas is reduced due not only to the large coronal column depth, but also to the increased inertia of the overlying material. It is concluded that the only possible electron-heated scenario in which the predicted Ca XIX line profiles agree with the BCS observations is when the impulsive flare starts in a preheated dense corona.

Emslie, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Review of Diagnostics for Water Sources in General Circulation Models (GCMs)

We will describe the uses of passive tracers in GCMs to compute the geographical sources of water for precipitation. We will present a summary of recent research and how this methodology can be applied in climate and climate change studies. We will also discuss the possibility of using passive tracers in conjunction with simulations and observations of stable observations.

Bosilovich, M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Diagnosis and Prognosis of Weapon Systems

The Prognostics Framework is a set of software tools with an open architecture that affords a capability to integrate various prognostic software mechanisms and to provide information for operational and battlefield decision-making and logistical planning pertaining to weapon systems. The Prognostics NASA Tech Briefs, February 2005 17 Framework is also a system-level health -management software system that (1) receives data from performance- monitoring and built-in-test sensors and from other prognostic software and (2) processes the received data to derive a diagnosis and a prognosis for a weapon system. This software relates the diagnostic and prognostic information to the overall health of the system, to the ability of the system to perform specific missions, and to needed maintenance actions and maintenance resources. In the development of the Prognostics Framework, effort was focused primarily on extending previously developed model-based diagnostic-reasoning software to add prognostic reasoning capabilities, including capabilities to perform statistical analyses and to utilize information pertaining to deterioration of parts, failure modes, time sensitivity of measured values, mission criticality, historical data, and trends in measurement data. As thus extended, the software offers an overall health-monitoring capability.

Nolan, Mary↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering significant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

cloud↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reconstructing Subgrid Cloud Variability Guided by CloudSat/CALIPSO Observations

Predicting realistic cloud subgrid variability remains a challenge for Global Climate Models (GCMs) even though it can play an important role for proper representation of processes pertaining to cloud microphysics, precipitation, and radiation, but also for comparisons with satellite observations which are of much higher resolution than model grids. The diagnostic approach of subgrid cloud variability is commonly handled by subcolumn cloud generators. For a specific GCM, one ideally wants the subgrid variability used for comparisons with satellite observations to be created by the same generator and with the same rules as the one used for model integration. With this in mind, we have embarked in an effort to test and improve cloud subcolumn generators appropriate for GCMs. For this purpose, we use cloud (hydrometeor) products from active observations by the CloudSat radar (CPR) and the CALIPSO lidar (CALIOP). Cloud products from active sensors while suffering signi􀂦cant sampling and coverage drawbacks have the advantage of resolving both horizontal and vertical variability. The main question is: given a profile of cloud condensate mean and variance, can we create a subgrid cloud field that is statistically similar to the observed subgrid cloud field? By “statistically”, we suggest that we do not aspire to reproduce “well” each individual subgrid cloud field of a GCM-scale region, but that our generator performs well for a large ensemble of cases. We simulate radar, passive imager, and radiation flux fields from the observed 2D cloud fields and create one-point statistics; we use the profiles of cloud condensate mean and variance as input to the generator to create subgrid cloud fields; we compare the statistics; we adjust the rules of the generator to create the best possible agreement between the radar, imager and radiation field statistics. In this process, the active observations have actually a dual role: they provide the actual subgrid cloud field which can be reduced to a profile of mean and variance used by the subcolumn generator, but they also provide the rules needed by the generator, such as measures (e.g, decorrelation length) of the vertical overlap of cloud fraction and of the condensate horizontal variability. This presentation will show our progress using Cloudsat and CALIPSO products in this dual fashion.

clouds↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sixth NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Control and Diagnostics (PCD) Workshop

The Intelligent Control and Autonomy Branch at NASA Glenn Research Center hosted the Sixth Propulsion Control and Diagnostics Workshop on August 22-24, 2017. The objectives of this workshop were to disseminate information about research being performed in support of NASA Aeronautics programs; get feedback from peers on the research; and identify opportunities for collaboration. There were presentations and posters by NASA researchers, Department of Defense representatives, and engine manufacturers on aspects of turbine engine modeling, control, and diagnostics.

Collaboration↗

NASA NTRS2007

Testing of the Crew Exploration Vehicle in NASA Langley's Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

As part of a strategic, multi-facility test program, subscale testing of NASA s Crew Exploration Vehicle was conducted in both legs of NASA Langley s Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The objectives of these tests were to generate aerodynamic and surface pressure data over a range of supersonic Mach numbers and reentry angles of attack for experimental and computational validation and aerodynamic database development. To provide initial information on boundary layer transition at supersonic test conditions, transition studies were conducted using temperature sensitive paint and infrared thermography optical techniques. To support implementation of these optical diagnostics in the Unitary Wind Tunnel, the experiment was first modeled using the Virtual Diagnostics Interface software. For reentry orientations of 140 to 170 degrees (heat shield forward), windward surface flow was entirely laminar for freestream unit Reynolds numbers equal to or less than 3 million per foot. Optical techniques showed qualitative evidence of forced transition on the windward heat shield with application of both distributed grit and discreet trip dots. Longitudinal static force and moment data showed the largest differences with Mach number and angle of attack variations. Differences associated with Reynolds number variation and/or laminar versus turbulent flow on the heat shield were very small. Static surface pressure data supported the aforementioned trends with Mach number, Reynolds number, and angle of attack.

Murphy, Kelly J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Kumar, Sujay↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

Ko, Malcolm↗

NASA NTRS1984

An analysis of the high-latitude thermospheric wind pattern calculated by a thermospheric general circulation model. I - Momentum forcing

A diagnostic processor (DP) was developed for analysis of hydrodynamic and thermodynamic processes predicted by the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM). The TGCM contains a history file on the projected wind, temperature and composition fields at each grid point for each hour of universal time. The DP assimilates the history file plus ion drag tensors and drift velocities, specific heats, coefficients of viscosity, and thermal conductivity and calculates the individual forcing terms for the momentum and energy equations for a given altitude. Sample momentum forcings were calculated for high latitudes in the presence of forcing by solar radiation and magnetospheric convection with a 60 kV cross-tail potential, i.e., conditions on Oct. 21, 1981. It was found that ion drag and pressure forces balance out at F region heights where ion drift velocities are small. The magnetic polar cap/auroral zone boundary featured the largest residual force or net acceleration. Diurnal oscillations were detected in the thermospheric convection, and geostrophic balance was dominant in the E layer.

Killeen, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Software Tools to Support the Assessment of System Health

This presentation provides an overview of three software tools that were developed by the NASA Glenn Research Center to support the assessment of system health: the Propulsion Diagnostic Method Evaluation Strategy (ProDIMES), the Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4), and the Extended Testability Analysis (ETA) tool. Originally developed to support specific NASA projects in aeronautics and space, these software tools are currently available to U.S. citizens through the NASA Glenn Software Catalog. The ProDiMES software tool was developed to support a uniform comparison of propulsion gas path diagnostic methods. Methods published in the open literature are typically applied to dissimilar platforms with different levels of complexity. They often address different diagnostic problems and use inconsistent metrics for evaluating performance. As a result, it is difficult to perform a one ]to ]one comparison of the various diagnostic methods. ProDIMES solves this problem by serving as a theme problem to aid in propulsion gas path diagnostic technology development and evaluation. The overall goal is to provide a tool that will serve as an industry standard, and will truly facilitate the development and evaluation of significant Engine Health Management (EHM) capabilities. ProDiMES has been developed under a collaborative project of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) based on feedback provided by individuals within the aircraft engine health management community. The S4 software tool provides a framework that supports the optimal selection of sensors for health management assessments. S4 is structured to accommodate user ]defined applications, diagnostic systems, search techniques, and system requirements/constraints. One or more sensor suites that maximize this performance while meeting other user ]defined system requirements that are presumed to exist. S4 provides a systematic approach for evaluating combinations of sensors to determine the set or sets of sensors that optimally meet the performance goals and the constraints. It identifies optimal sensor suite solutions by utilizing a merit (i.e., cost) function with one of several available optimization approaches. As part of its analysis, S4 can expose fault conditions that are difficult to diagnose due to an incomplete diagnostic philosophy and/or a lack of sensors. S4 was originally developed and applied to liquid rocket engines. It was subsequently used to study the optimized selection of sensors for a simulation ]based aircraft engine diagnostic system. The ETA Tool is a software ]based analysis tool that augments the testability analysis and reporting capabilities of a commercial ]off ]the ]shelf (COTS) package. An initial diagnostic assessment is performed by the COTS software using a user ]developed, qualitative, directed ]graph model of the system being analyzed. The ETA Tool accesses system design information captured within the model and the associated testability analysis output to create a series of six reports for various system engineering needs. These reports are highlighted in the presentation. The ETA Tool was developed by NASA to support the verification of fault management requirements early in the Launch Vehicle process. Due to their early development during the design process, the TEAMS ]based diagnostic model and the ETA Tool were able to positively influence the system design by highlighting gaps in failure detection, fault isolation, and failure recovery.

Melcher, Kevin J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A simple Lagrangian forecast system with aviation forecast potential

A trajectory forecast procedure is developed which uses geopotential tendency fields obtained from a simple, multiple layer, potential vorticity conservative isentropic model. This model can objectively account for short-term advective changes in the mass field when combined with fine-scale initial analyses. This procedure for producing short-term, upper-tropospheric trajectory forecasts employs a combination of a detailed objective analysis technique, an efficient mass advection model, and a diagnostically proven trajectory algorithm, none of which require extensive computer resources. Results of initial tests are presented, which indicate an exceptionally good agreement for trajectory paths entering the jet stream and passing through an intensifying trough. It is concluded that this technique not only has potential for aiding in route determination, fuel use estimation, and clear air turbulence detection, but also provides an example of the types of short range forecasting procedures which can be applied at local forecast centers using simple algorithms and a minimum of computer resources.

Petersen, R. A.↗