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At least 235 records · Page 13

RSRM 10 percent Scale Model Drilled Hole Plate Tests

The RSRM 10% Scaled Model under design will make use of drilled hole liners to provide mass addition along the axial length of the model. The model will have two sets of liners in use at a time. The outer most liner is a flow distribution tube, the purpose of which is to help distribute the flow evenly over each model segment. The inner most liner will simulate the propellant burning surface at a burn time of 80 seconds. This liner will replicate as closely as possible the actual geometry of the full scale RSRM at the 80 second burn time. In order to obtain the correct mass flow rate for the burn time selected, it is necessary to determine the porosity of the holes drilled in each liner and the performance of those holes. The pressure drop across the liners directly effects the uniformity of the flow in the axial direction for a given model section. It is desired to have a pressure drop across the liners which is greater than the axial pressure drop in a given section. However, the pressure drop across the liner also has a bearing on the structural soundness of the model. The performance of the model was determined analytically, but there was some uncertainty as to the value of the discharge coefficient used. This uncertainty was the impetus for these drilled hole plate tests. Experimentally obtaining the discharge coefficients for sample plates of the porosity to be used in the model would increase the fidelity of the model design. These tests were developed in order to provide the required information with the least amount of testing time and hardware.

Purinton, David C.↗

An Interactive MATLAB Program for Fitting Transfer Functions to Frequency Responses

A computer program called FRFit (Frequency Response Fitting) for matching single-input single-output (SISO) transfer function models to empirical frequency response data is described. The program was written in MATLAB and has a graphical user interface (GUI). It is interactive in that the user manually builds the transfer function model using ``elementary factors'' (gain, delay, differentiators and integrators, and first- and second-order poles and zeros) and adjusts their values with sliders or entry fields. A nonlinear optimization can also be used to determine maximum-likelihood estimates of the transfer function parameters and their associated uncertainties. The program has some usefulness as a teaching aid, and can be applied to model structure determination, reduced-order modeling, preliminary analysis, and other system identification problems. FRFit is demonstrated using example problems, including the identification of aircraft transfer functions and rational function approximations of Theodorsen's function.

Frequency response↗

Linear, multivariable robust control with a mu perspective

The structured singular value is a linear algebra tool developed to study a particular class of matrix perturbation problems arising in robust feedback control of multivariable systems. These perturbations are called linear fractional, and are a natural way to model many types of uncertainty in linear systems, including state-space parameter uncertainty, multiplicative and additive unmodeled dynamics uncertainty, and coprime factor and gap metric uncertainty. The structured singular value theory provides a natural extension of classical SISO robustness measures and concepts to MIMO systems. The structured singular value analysis, coupled with approximate synthesis methods, make it possible to study the tradeoff between performance and uncertainty that occurs in all feedback systems. In MIMO systems, the complexity of the spatial interactions in the loop gains make it difficult to heuristically quantify the tradeoffs that must occur. This paper examines the role played by the structured singular value (and its computable bounds) in answering these questions, as well as its role in the general robust, multivariable control analysis and design problem.

Packard, Andy↗

Satellite Constraints on the Latitudinal Distribution and Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions comprise about one-third of the global CH4 source. The latitudinal distribution and climate sensitivity of wetland CH4 fluxes are the key determinants of the global CH4-climate feedback. However, large differences exist between bottom-up estimates, informed by ground-based flux measurements, and top-down estimates derived from spaceborne total column CH4. Despite the extensive coverage of satellite CH4 concentration observations, challenges remain with using top-down estimates to test bottom-up models, mainly because of the uncertainties in the satellite retrievals, the model representation errors, the variable prior emissions, and the confounding role of the posterior error covariance structures. Here, we use satellite-based top-down CH4 flux estimates (2010–2012) to test and refine 42 bottom-up estimates of wetland emissions that use a range of hypothesized wetland extents and process controls. Our comparison between bottom-up models and satellite-based fluxes innovatively accounts for cross-correlations and spatial uncertainties typically found in top-down inverse estimates, such that only the information from satellite observations and the atmospheric transport model is kept as a constraint. We present a satellite-constrained wetland CH4 ensemble product derived from assembling the highest-performance bottom-up models, which estimates global wetland CH4 emissions of 148 (117–189, 5th–95th percentile) Tg CH4 yr−1. We find that tropical wetland emissions contribute 72% (63%–85%) to the global wetland total. We also find that a lower-than-expected temperature sensitivity agrees better with atmospheric CH4 measurements. Overall, our approach demonstrates the potential for using satellites to quantitatively refine bottom-up wetland CH4 emission estimates, their latitudinal distributions, and their sensitivity to climate.

wetland ch4↗

Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.

Lyle, Karen H.↗

A Comparison of Metallographic Cooling Rate Methods Used in Meteorites

The primary objective of this study was to test the postulate that cooling rates acquired from metal grains in chondrites are consistent with those from iron meteorites. Both types of metal occur in some Group IAB meteorites, which are mixtures of massive metal with well-developed Widmanstatten structures and chondritic inclusions with dispersed metal grains. The grains have textures and compositions similar to chondritic metal, including negligible P. The meteorites studied show little or no sign of shock reheating and textural evidence indicates that silicates and metal were mixed before Widmanstatten patterns formed during cooling. Cooling rates were obtained by comparing measured to modeled taenite grain or lamellae dimensions and central Ni contents. Modeling entails solving diffusion equations using experimental diffusion coefficients, phase relations, and bulk or local Ni and P contents, taking into account geometry, undercooling, and impingement. There is one set of parameters for grains and another, quite different set for Widmanstatten lamellae, including a factor of 30 difference in diffusion coefficients. Yet cooling rates obtained from Widmanstatten structures and metal grains in chondritic inclusions of the same meteorite are consistent; uncertainties in the best data are +/- 10 K/Ma, equivalent to a factor of 1 +/- 0.25. This agreement implies that the data and models are correct or contain fortuitously offsetting errors, which is quite unlikely. Cooling rates range from 40 K/Ma to 70 K/Ma in IAB meteorites that contain both grains and Widmanstatten structures. Rates based on grains in Ni-poor and Ni-rich meteorites lacking Widmansatten patterns expand the range from 30 K/Ma to perhaps 200 K/Ma. Cooling rates correlate with Ni content; Ni-poor meteorites have slower rates than Ni-rich ones. Evidently, IAB meteorites were radially distributed over greater than 30km in a body with a radius less than 50km. A comparison of the available Ar ages with cooling times inferred from the cooling rates suggests that the parent body cooled more slowly after the metallographic cooling rates were established.

Herpfer, Marc A.↗

Control System Modeling for the Thirty Meter Telescope Primary Mirror

The Thirty Meter Telescope primary mirror is composed of 492 segments that are controlled to high precision in the presence of wind and vibration disturbances, despite the interaction with structural dynamics. The higher bandwidth and larger number of segments compared with the Keck telescopes requires greater attention to modeling to ensure success. We focus here on the development and validation of a suite of quasi-static and dynamic modeling tools required to support the design process, including robustness verification, performance estimation, and requirements flowdown. Models are used to predict the dynamic response due to wind and vibration disturbances, estimate achievable bandwidth in the presence of control-structure-interaction (CSI) and uncertainty in the interaction matrix, and simulate and analyze control algorithms and strategies, e.g. for control of focus-mode, and sensor calibration. Representative results illustrate TMT performance scaling with parameters, but the emphasis is on the modeling framework itself.

uncetainty↗

Probabilistic structural analysis methods of hot engine structures

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot engine structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. Recent activities have focused on extending the methods to include the combined uncertainties in several factors on structural response. This paper briefly describes recent progress on composite load spectra models, probabilistic finite element structural analysis, and probabilistic strength degradation modeling. Progress is described in terms of fundamental concepts, computer code development, and representative numerical results.

Chamis, C. C.↗

A probabilistic design analysis approach for launch systems

This paper discusses a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. In addition to providing a systematic way for evaluating reliability, this approach provides a tool for comparing reliabilities of competing designs and identifies weak spots through sensitivity analysis. An overview of the probabilistic design approach is included to emphasize the importance of the approach in engineering design. An actual example is included to demonstrate that these approaches have been used with success. Different methodologies for implementing PDA are also discussed. Finally, recommendations for using PDA are provided.

Safie, Fayssal↗

Autonomous Frequency-Domain Indentification

Test and data-processing system determines plant models and uncertainties. Integrated system of methods, digital signal-processing, and algorithms identifies parametric model of large, flexible structures. Experiments in development of system conducted on laboratory model intended to represent large space antenna or flexible spacecraft. Also applicable to many terrestrial systems, robust control of dynamic plants and processes, robust control of systems about which knowledge uncertain or incomplete, decentralized control, and knowledge-based control systems.

Mettler, Edward↗

Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

Fox, Eric P.↗

Preliminary Structural Sensitivity Study of Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator Using Probabilistic Methods

Acceptance of new spacecraft structural architectures and concepts requires validated design methods to minimize the expense involved with technology validation via flighttesting. This paper explores the implementation of probabilistic methods in the sensitivity analysis of the structural response of a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD). HIAD architectures are attractive for spacecraft deceleration because they are lightweight, store compactly, and utilize the atmosphere to decelerate a spacecraft during re-entry. However, designers are hesitant to include these inflatable approaches for large payloads or spacecraft because of the lack of flight validation. In the example presented here, the structural parameters of an existing HIAD model have been varied to illustrate the design approach utilizing uncertainty-based methods. Surrogate models have been used to reduce computational expense several orders of magnitude. The suitability of the design is based on assessing variation in the resulting cone angle. The acceptable cone angle variation would rely on the aerodynamic requirements.

Lyle, Karen H.↗

Probabilistic system identification in the time domain

The objective of system identification is to determine reliable dynamical models of a structure by systematically using its measured excitation and response. It brings together in an integrated fashion, experimental, analytical, and computational techniques in structural dynamics. Areas of application for system identification include the following: (1) Model Evaluation--assessing assumptions (linearity and equivalent viscous damping) and techniques (finite-element modeling) used to construct theoretical models of a structure; (2) Model Improvement--updating of a theoretical model to enable more accurate response predictions for possible future loads on the structure, or for control of the structure; (3) Empirical Modelling--developing empirical relationships (nonlinear models) or empirical parameter values (modal damping) because the present state of the art does not provide theoretical results; and (4) Damage Detection and Assessment--continual or episodic updating of a structural model through vibration monitoring to detect and locate any structural damage. It can be argued that since the construction or modification of models using test data is subject to inherent uncertainties, the above problems should be properly treated within a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Such a methodology is presented which allows the precision of the estimates of the model parameters to be computed. It also leads to a guiding principle in applications. Namely, when selecting a single model from a given class of models, one should take the most probable model in the class based on the experimental data. Practical applications of this principle are given which are based on the utilization of measured seismic motions in large civil structures. Examples include the application of a computer program MODE-ID to identify modal properties directly from seismic excitation and response time histories from a nine-story steel-frame building at JPL and from a freeway overpass bridge.

Beck, James L.↗

Further Constraints and Uncertainties on the Deep Seismic Structure of the Moon

The Apollo Passive Seismic Experiment (APSE) consisted of four 3-component seismometers deployed between 1969 and 1972, that continuously recorded lunar ground motion until late 1977. The APSE data provide a unique opportunity for investigating the interior of a planet other than Earth, generating the most direct constraints on the elastic structure, and hence the thermal and compositional evolution of the Moon. Owing to the lack of far side moonquakes, past seismic models of the lunar interior were unable to constrain the lowermost 500 km of the interior. Recently, array methodologies aimed at detecting deep lunar seismic reflections found evidence for a lunar core, providing an elastic model of the deepest lunar interior consistent with geodetic parameters. Here we study the uncertainties in these models associated with the double array stacking of deep moonquakes for imaging deep reflectors in the Moon. We investigate the dependency of the array stacking results on a suite of parameters, including amplitude normalization assumptions, polarization filters, assumed velocity structure, and seismic phases that interfere with our desired target phases. These efforts are facilitated by the generation of synthetic seismograms at high frequencies (approx. 1Hz), allowing us to directly study the trade-offs between different parameters. We also investigate expected amplitudes of deep reflections relative to direct P and S arrivals, including predictions from arbitrarily oriented focal mechanisms in our synthetics. Results from separate versus combined station stacking help to establish the robustness of stacks. Synthetics for every path geometry of data were processed identically to that done with data. Different experiments were aimed at examining various processing assumptions, such as adding random noise to synthetics and mixing 3 components to some degree. The principal stacked energy peaks put forth in recent work persist, but their amplitude (which maps into reflector impedance contrast) and timing (which maps into reflector depth) depend on factors that are not well constrained -- most notably, the velocity structure of the overlying lunar interior. Thus, while evidence for the lunar core remains strong, the depths of imaged reflectors have associated uncertainties that will require new seismic data and observations to constrain. These results strongly advocate further investigations on the Moon to better resolve the interior (e.g., Selene missions), for the Moon apparently has a rich history of construction and evolution that is inextricably tied to that of Earth.

Lin, Pei-Ying Patty↗

Similarity Metrics for Closed Loop Dynamic Systems

To what extent and in what ways can two closed-loop dynamic systems be said to be "similar?" This question arises in a wide range of dynamic systems modeling and control system design applications. For example, bounds on error models are fundamental to the controller optimization with modern control design methods. Metrics such as the structured singular value are direct measures of the degree to which properties such as stability or performance are maintained in the presence of specified uncertainties or variations in the plant model. Similarly, controls-related areas such as system identification, model reduction, and experimental model validation employ measures of similarity between multiple realizations of a dynamic system. Each area has its tools and approaches, with each tool more or less suited for one application or the other. Similarity in the context of closed-loop model validation via flight test is subtly different from error measures in the typical controls oriented application. Whereas similarity in a robust control context relates to plant variation and the attendant affect on stability and performance, in this context similarity metrics are sought that assess the relevance of a dynamic system test for the purpose of validating the stability and performance of a "similar" dynamic system. Similarity in the context of system identification is much more relevant than are robust control analogies in that errors between one dynamic system (the test article) and another (the nominal "design" model) are sought for the purpose of bounding the validity of a model for control design and analysis. Yet system identification typically involves open-loop plant models which are independent of the control system (with the exception of limited developments in closed-loop system identification which is nonetheless focused on obtaining open-loop plant models from closed-loop data). Moreover the objectives of system identification are not the same as a flight test and hence system identification error metrics are not directly relevant. In applications such as launch vehicles where the open loop plant is unstable it is similarity of the closed-loop system dynamics of a flight test that are relevant.

Whorton, Mark S.↗

Dynamic Stability of Uncertain Laminated Beams Under Subtangential Loads

Because of the inherent complexity of fiber-reinforced laminated composites, it can be challenging to manufacture composite structures according to their exact design specifications, resulting in unwanted material and geometric uncertainties. In this research, we focus on the deterministic and probabilistic stability analysis of laminated structures subject to subtangential loading, a combination of conservative and nonconservative tangential loads, using the dynamic criterion. Thus a shear-deformable laminated beam element, including warping effects, is derived to study the deterministic and probabilistic response of laminated beams. This twenty-one degrees of freedom element can be used for solving both static and dynamic problems. In the first-order shear deformable model used here we have employed a more accurate method to obtain the transverse shear correction factor. The dynamic version of the principle of virtual work for laminated composites is expressed in its nondimensional form and the element tangent stiffness and mass matrices are obtained using analytical integration The stability is studied by giving the structure a small disturbance about an equilibrium configuration, and observing if the resulting response remains small. In order to study the dynamic behavior by including uncertainties into the problem, three models were developed: Exact Monte Carlo Simulation, Sensitivity Based Monte Carlo Simulation, and Probabilistic FEA. These methods were integrated into the developed finite element analysis. Also, perturbation and sensitivity analysis have been used to study nonconservative problems, as well as to study the stability analysis, using the dynamic criterion.

Goyal, Vijay K.↗

Observing Ice in Clouds from Space

There are many satellite observations of cloud top properties and the liquid and rain content of clouds, however, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds in the upper troposphere either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. These properties include cloud horizontal and vertical structure, cloud water content and some measure of particle sizes and shapes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. One barrier to achieving accurate global ice cloud properties is the lack of adequate observations at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (183-874 GHz). Recent advances in instrumentation have allowed for the development and implementation of an airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer. The brightness temperatures at these frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. The next step is a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the submillimeter-wave region, thus bridging the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. This presentation provides scientific justification and an approach to measuring ice water path and particle size from a satellite platform that spans a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems.

Ackerman, S.↗

Composition, Structure and Evolution of Uranian and Neptunian Satellites

Large uncertainties in the current estimated densities of all of these satellites prevent detailed modeling or predictions. Nevertheless, current evidence suggests that at least Titania and Oberon might have anomalously high densities of 2-39 cm(-3), possibly requiring almost ice-free hydrated silicates or formation in a CO-rich environment, implying presence of CO-clathrate and a small ice/rock ratio. Trition and the four largest satellites of Uranus are massive enough to have undergone significant accretional heating and early differentiation; NH3-H2O volcanism; partial outgassing of CO, N2, Ch4; formation of dark surficial deposits of carbon-rich material obtained by UV irradiation of outgassed material; and, at least in the cases of Ariel and Triton, a possibility of weak ongoing icy volcanic activity. Triton may be the largest captured body in the solar system, with an unusual history and composition, including the possibility of substantial liquid or solid nitrogen obtained from either primordial NH3 photolysis or clathrate decomposition.

Stevenson, D. J.↗