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Floods of Egypt’s Nile in the 21st century
Extreme precipitation and flooding events are rising globally, necessitating a thorough understanding and sustainable management of water resources. One such setting is the Nile River’s source areas, where high precipitation has led to the filling of Lake Nasser (LN) twice (1998–2003; 2019–2022) in the last two decades and the diversion of overflow to depressions west of the Nile, where it is lost mainly to evaporation. Using temporal satellite-based data, climate models, and continuous rainfall-runoff models, we identified the primary contributor to increased runoff that reached LN in the past two decades and assessed the impact of climate change on the LN’s runoff throughout the twenty-first century. Findings include: (1) the Blue Nile subbasin (BNS) is the primary contributor to increased downstream runoff, (2) the BNS runoff was simulated in the twenty-first century using a calibrated (1965–1992) rainfall-runoff model with global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4, HadGEM3, and GFDL-CM4.0, projections as model inputs, (3) the extreme value analysis for projected runoff driven by GCMs’ output indicates extreme floods are more severe in the twenty-first century, (4) one adaptation for the projected twenty-first century increase in precipitation (25–39%) and flood (2%-20%) extremes is to recharge Egypt’s fossil aquifers during high flood years.
IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection
This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.
Conventional and Next Generation Treatment Technologies for PFAS - 20067
In 2016, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) established a Health Advisory Limit (HAL) for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) (individually and the summation) of 70 nanograms per liter (ng/L) based on developing toxicological information. These two compounds are among several thousand per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Due to a multitude of commercially beneficial physical and chemical properties, the availability of PFAS-relevant and practical water treatment technologies is limited. The use of conventional adsorbents, such as activated carbon (AC) and anion exchange (AIX) resins, have become a 'de facto' interim measure to immediately address drinking water above this criterion. However, these adsorbents can have marginal long-term efficiency and are relatively unproven against the diversity of polyfluorinated compounds. Additionally, geochemical and/or co-contaminant competition can significantly impede adsorption based PFAS removal. These challenges may be addressed using engineered filtration, such as reverse osmosis or nanofiltration (RO/NF); however, for larger flow systems RO/NF may have unacceptable reject ratios as high as 35% and the capital cost may preclude these technologies. Extending these technologies to natural waters, which have various degrees of geochemical and co-contaminant competition, often requires a treatment train, combining conventional adsorbents or engineered filtration with pretreatment and more innovative and emerging remediation solutions for PFAS. Conventional and Next Generation water treatment technologies for PFAS generally employ one of three mechanisms (adsorption, separation, or destruction). These mechanisms include many types of technologies for both municipal drinking water and extracted natural water applications. The previously mentioned AC, AIX, and RO/NF are commercially available technologies that are actively being deployed for PFAS treatment. Research and development around these technologies is focused on optimization, and ultimate destruction of PFAS is achieved through incineration. Next Generation water treatment technologies include PFAS-specific flocculants, foam fractionation, novel AIX resins, new engineered adsorptive media, electrochemical treatment, sonolysis, and photolysis, radiation, and plasma (forms of advanced reductive processes [ARP]). Research and development around these technologies is focused on proof of concept and assimilation to real world applications. As the PFAS-relevant destructive technologies (such as incineration, electrochemical treatment, sonolysis, and ARP) are energy intensive, the state of the practice for PFAS water treatment is to focus adsorption/separation based technologies on reducing and concentrating the volume of water requiring destructive treatment. This enables more flexibility with respect to circulation frequency, residence time, and more control over energy usage. Water treatment for PFAS presently requires multiple technologies (i.e. a treatment train) to protect human health in a cost-conscious manner. An investment in research and development to explore new technologies is part of a key initiative for efficient protection of human health. This presentation attempts to review PFAS-relevant water treatment technologies and provide perspective as to their status with respect to applicability and commercial relevance. (authors)
Efficacy of antivirals and mRNA vaccination against an XBF clinical isolate
Recombination events occur frequently in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), resulting in genetic diversity. Because these events contribute to altered host immune evasion and antiviral susceptibility, it is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and antivirals against recombinant variants. As of March 2023, XBB.1.5, a recombinant sublineage of XBB, is currently the dominant form globally (Fig. S1A, Supplementary Appendix). XBB emerged as a result of recombination between two BA.2 descendants, BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1 (a progeny of BA.2.75). We and other groups have shown that XBB.1.5 is resistant to several therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and effectively evades humoral immunity elicited by natural infection or COVID-19 vaccination.1, 2, 3 By March 30, 2023, an additional recombinant variant, XBF, had been sampled 8966 times in 47 countries and territories in GISAID, reaching it highest prevalence in Australia and New Zealand (Fig. S2, Supplementary Appendix). XBF is still increasing in frequency, although the prevalence of XBB.1.5 appears to be increasing at a faster pace in most regions (Fig. S1B, Supplementary Appendix). XBF is a recombinant of BA.5.2.3 (a descendant of BA.5) and CJ.1 (a descendant of BA.2.75) and, like CJ.1, has an additional three substitutions (R346T, F486P, and F490S) in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the consensus form of its spike protein compared to baseline BA.2.75 (Fig. S3A, Supplementary Appendix). CJ.1 and its related sublineage CJ.1.1 did not expand as extensively as XBF, being sampled in GISAID only 1589 and 142 times respectively. CJ.1 was found circulating in many countries, but most commonly sampled in South Korea, where it is still increasing and has currently reached about 5% of the sampled population. CJ.1.1 was most frequently sampled in Malaysia and Singapore, but remained rare in both nations, peaking at about 1% of the sample in December of 2022. Despite the importance of these related variants, we have no information about the antiviral efficacy and immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccines against a clinical isolate of XBF.
Generalized Quantum Signal Processing
Quantum signal processing (QSP) and quantum singular value transformation (QSVT) currently stand as the most efficient techniques for implementing functions of block-encoded matrices, a central task that lies at the heart of most prominent quantum algorithms. However, current QSP approaches face several challenges, such as the restrictions imposed on the family of achievable polynomials and the difficulty of calculating the required phase angles for specific transformations. In this paper, we present a generalized quantum signal processing (GQSP) approach, employing general SU(2) rotations as our signal-processing operators, rather than relying solely on rotations in a single basis. Our approach lifts all practical restrictions on the family of achievable transformations, with the sole remaining condition being that | P | ≤ 1 , a restriction necessary due to the unitary nature of quantum computation. Furthermore, GQSP provides a straightforward recursive formula for determining the rotation angles needed to construct the polynomials in cases where P and Q are known. In cases where only P is known, we provide an efficient optimization algorithm capable of identifying in under a minute of GPU time, a corresponding Q for polynomials of degree on the order of 10 7 . We further illustrate GQSP simplifies QSP-based strategies for Hamiltonian simulation, offer an optimal solution to the ϵ -approximate fractional query problem that requires O ( ( 1 / δ ) + log ( 1 / ϵ ) ) queries to perform where O ( 1 / δ ) is a proved lower bound, and introduces novel approaches for implementing bosonic operators. Moreover, we propose a novel framework for the implementation of normal matrices, demonstrating its applicability through synthesis of diagonal matrices, as well as the development of a new algorithm for convolution through synthesis of circulant matrices using only O ( d log N + log 2 N ) 1 and 2-qubit gates for a filter of lengths d . Published by the American Physical Society 2024
Full-Loop Simulation of the Combustion of Biomass in a Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustor
Interest in circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boilers as a power generation technology has skyrocketed in recent years because of several advantages this technology offers over conventional boilers, such as increased gas-solid mixing, which results in higher combustion efficiency, and the ability to use lower rank fuels. CFB combustors are operated at lower temperatures than conventional thermal power generation combustors, thus reducing NO x emissions, while SO 2 emissions can be conveniently controlled through the addition of Ca-based sulfur sorbents within the combustor. This report summarizes the development of a comprehensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for biomass combustion in a 50 kW th CFB combustor employing the multiphase particle-in-cell (PIC) approach in the open-source Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) Software Suite at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The experimental combustor was designed, built, and operated at CanmetENERGY, Natural Resources Canada in Ottawa, Canada. This work is the culmination of a multi-year collaboration between NETL and CanmetENERGY. The hydrodynamics in the full loop are validated against cold-flow experiments conducted at CanmetENERGY. To mimic the dense packing in the standpipe in the absence of a collisional model in the MFiX-PIC approach, the ram valve in the return leg is partially closed to obstruct the flow. A combustion reaction scheme was developed that considers the volatiles released by the fuel as a lumped species that fully converts to CO 2 and H 2 O. The so-called enhanced simplified combustion scheme produces an excellent match with experimental data in terms of the species concentrations of CO 2 and O 2 at the outlet and the freeboard, demonstrating the utility of the comprehensive model for a range of flow conditions and operating temperatures. Furthermore, the model can be readily adapted to simulate combustion of a variety of biomass fuels as well as co-fired systems under air and oxy-fuel conditions.
Solid State Quantum Refrigeration Superconducting, Absorption and Measurement Based (Final Technical Report)
During this DOE grant, DE-SC0017890, in place for the past six years, all proposed research was carried out and published in peer-reviewed papers, as well as other projects that emerged during the research. In that effort the research team accomplished all proposed research, as well as many closely related research projects discovered and conceived of during the grant. These works included “Efficient Quantum Measurement Engines”, a work published in Physical Review Letters, giving a theory of quantum measurement-based engines, which uses quantum measurement as a resource. These engines are designed to efficiently convert energy from the stochastic quantum measurement process into useful work. Further publications include “Experimental Realization of a Quantum Dot Energy Harvester”, a joint theory and experimental work in collaboration with the group of Charles Smith in Cambridge, UK, as well as long time theoretical collaborators, Rafael Sánchez and Björn Sothmann. This work, featured as an Editor’s Suggestion in Physical Review Letters, realized an earlier theoretical proposal of ours, whereby two resonant tunneling quantum dots are connected to a central electronic cavity that is heated by a hot energy source. We also published “Superconducting Quantum Refrigerator: Breaking and Rejoining Cooper Pairs with Magnetic Field Cycles” a work done in collaboration with experimentalist Francesco Giazotto from ENS Pisa, Italy, which also resulted in a patent. This paper, published in Phys. Rev. Applied, advanced the concept of a cyclic fridge based on the normal/superconducting phase transition together with layered materials separated by tunnel junctions. We also completed the proposed research on a heat transistor, publishing “Thermal transistor and thermometer based on Coulomb-coupled conductors”, carried out as a collaboration between my group and theorists Splettstoesser (Lund U., Sweden), Sothmann (U. Duisburg-Essen, Germany), and Sánchez (U. Autónoma de Madrid, Spain). We carried out an analysis of a quantum coupled to a quantum point contact as a sensitive thermometer and heat transistor. We found the optimal statistical estimator for the temperature and compared it with experiments on the same type of devices. We also investigated autonomous quantum absorption refrigerators using quantum dots to cool by using a very hot thermal reservoir to drive heat between two other reservoirs. In the article “Quantifying the quantum heat contribution from a driven superconducting circuit”, we demonstrated that for a driven superconducting circuit, we showed heat flow provided by a hot source to the qubit can be switched on and off by varying external parameters, the frequency and the intensity of the driving. In the work “Stochastic thermodynamic cycles of a mesoscopic thermoelectric engine”, we reconsidered the autonomous thermoelectric heat engine in terms of underlying cycles. Rather than periodic behavior, the cycles were stochastic in nature. Nevertheless, by undertaking a graph theoretical analysis of the elementary transport processed, great quantitative and qualitative insight could be found. We also considered the quantum measurement process and showed that a quantum version of Maxwell’s demon could be related to the work extraction of a quantum system, closely related to arrow-of-time measures for quantum measurement, as described in our article “Thermodynamics of quantum measurement and Maxwell's demon's arrow of time”. This work was selected in Phys. Rev. A as an Editor’s Suggestion. A recent preprint titled “Cyclic Superconducting Quantum Refrigerators Using Guided Fluxon Propagation” accomplished an important piece of this grant: to propose a new kind of quantum refrigerator using the dynamics of fluxons in a type II superconductor. This invention envisioned a race-track type geometry where fluxons are confined. By applying a gradient of magnetic field together with electric current in a Corbino geometry, the circulating fluxons can actively cool a cold reservoir, realizing a new type of cyclic superconducting refrigerator. We also investigated the possibility of thermal control from different points of view. The application of quantum measurement to the system gives a new kind of control on the system of interest – we have pioneered this approach and shown that measurement can boost the thermal power of quantum engines as described in “Continuous measurement boosted adiabatic quantum thermal machines”. The ability to have heat flows on demand is an outstanding challenge, and we have provided new solutions to this problem in Thermal control across a chain of electronic nanocavities” for a chain of electron cavities using gating voltage control. The control methods using qubit/qubit coupling to create absorption fridges at their most fundamental level have also been developed.
Molecular and Genetic Characterization of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) among Saudi Chronically HBV-Infected Individuals
The study aimed to characterize the genotype and subgenotypes of HBV circulating in Saudi Arabia, the presence of clinically relevant mutations possibly associated with resistance to antivirals or immune escape phenomena, and the possible impact of mutations in the structural characteristics of HBV polymerase. Plasma samples from 12 Saudi Arabian HBV-infected patients were analyzed using an in-house PCR method and direct sequencing. Saudi patients were infected with mainly subgenotype D1. A number of mutations in the RT gene (correlated to antiviral resistance) and within and outside the major hydrophilic region of the S gene (claimed to influence immunogenicity and be related to immune escape) were observed in almost all patients. Furthermore, the presence of mutations in the S region caused a change in the tertiary structure of the protein compared with the consensus region. Clinical manifestations of HBV infection may change dramatically as a result of viral and host factors: the study of mutations and protein-associated cofactors might define possible aspects relevant for the natural and therapeutic history of HBV infection.
Application of an Embedded Fracture and Borehole Modeling Approach to the Understanding of EGS Collab Experiment 1
EGS Collab is a series of meso-scale experiments and associated numerical simulation activities being funded by the United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to investigate enhanced geothermal system processes under in-situ stress and slightly elevated temperature conditions. This project is designed to provide scientists and engineers with immediate access to impermeable rock at scales larger than possible in the laboratory, but generally smaller than those for commercial production. Immediate access to rock is provided via the existing drifts of the former Homestake Gold Mine, now operated as the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. The objectives of the EGS Collab project are to develop well controlled fracture networks between injector and producer boreholes using normal and shear stimulation for permeability enhancement. The first experimental site was located off the West Access drift on the 4850 Level (4850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, and involved the creation of a fracture network comprising a combination of hydraulic and natural fractures. A second experimental site is now being considered near the battery alcove on the 4100 Level in amphibolite and rhyolite of the Yates Unit. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. Experiment 1 has comprised a series of successful tests, including a long-term chilled-water circulation test, but the testbed has two atypical EGS elements. Active ventilation in the adjacent drift over a 50-year period cooled the testbed rock mass and hydraulic fracturing intersected monitoring boreholes making them conduits for fluid flow. Numerical simulations executed in support of the design of the EGS Collab Experiment 1, computed a radial temperature distribution and stress gradient orthogonal to the drift axis, resulting in the forecast of an oblong hydraulic fracture geometry, extended in the direction of the drift from the stimulation borehole. This paper describes the numerical simulation of long-term chilled-water circulation test with an embedded fracture and borehole modeling approach. The principal objective of the simulation work is show agreement between experimental observations in terms of production fluid temperatures, monitoring borehole temperatures, injection and production pressures, and tracer recoveries using a single conceptual model for the fracture network, using characterization and monitoring data generally available for EGS. A secondary objective is to improve the numerical simulation result comparisons with additional data available from the broader monitoring equipment within the testbed versus deeper, hotter, and more remote EGS. One complicating factor for comparisons between the numerical simulation results and experimental observations, is the Joule-Thomson heating associated with large pressure drops across the fracture network.
Fast response of global monsoon area and precipitation to regional carbonaceous aerosols
Monsoon exerts a significant social and economic impact on billions of people around the world. Changes in global monsoon (GM) rainfall under global warming have been well studied; however, the understanding of GM connection with regional aerosol emissions is limited. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we attempt to quantify the response of global monsoon area and precipitation to the removal of carbonaceous aerosols over North America (AM), North Africa (AF), Europe (EU), and Asia (AS). Response to the emission removal, the global average aerosol optical depths (AOD) are reduced by 2.21%, 1.8%, 1.16%, and 3.8% respectively. Additionally, a southward shift in the GM domain is observed, responding to changes in magnitude and position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, when carbonaceous aerosols are removed over these regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The percentage departure in the area-averaged GM precipitation is found to be 4-fold in magnitude for the removal of emissions over EU when compared to that of AM and AF. A shrinkage in the GM area is also observed, which is maximum for EU (~-30%) compared to AM and AF (~-25%). The change in GM precipitation and area are found to be the least and opposite in nature for AS emissions. This study provides insight into the regional nature of carbonaceous aerosol effects on global precipitation.
Off-Design Load Analysis of sCO2 Bottoming Cycle for a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant with Carbon Capture
As an alternative to a steam cycle, a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle can be considered. Able et. al performed an analysis of an sCO2 cycle in a 2x2-1 configuration; however, this study did not include carbon capture. Previous studies assumed an H-Frame turbine and added a solvent based 95% carbon capture system and performed a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) optimization for the plant. Their results suggest a LCOE slightly better than when using a steam cycle. In the study, steam is still generated in the heat recovery sections for the solvent regeneration in the carbon capture stripper reboiler. H-Frame gas turbines are also assumed. This work starts with the optimal design from the mentioned work to analyze the off-design performance of the power plant from 100% down to 50% load. The main operational findings and plant-efficiency for off-load conditions while maintaining the target CO2 capture rate are presented. H-Frame gas turbine off-design performance and exhaust conditions to the heat recovery section are obtained from commercial software, Thermoflow®. The CO2 turbomachinery, heat exchangers and other unit operations are sized and implemented in an Aspen Plus® model. Using the gas turbine exhaust conditions as input, the sCO2 cycle is optimized by adjusting stream split ratios, sCO2 circulation flowrate and compressor speed for maximum efficiency. This is done while keeping the target 95% CO2 capture.
A Highly Effective African Swine Fever Virus Vaccine Elicits a Memory T Cell Response in Vaccinated Swine
African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is the causative agent of a highly contagious and lethal vector-borne disease in suids. Recently, a live attenuated virus strain, developed using the currently circulating, virulent Georgia strain (ASFV-G) with a single gene deletion (ASFV-G-ΔI177L), resulted in an effective vaccine. Nevertheless, protective immune response mechanisms induced by this candidate are poorly understood. In this study, Yorkshire crossbred swine intramuscularly vaccinated with 10 6 50% hemadsorption dose (HAD 50 ) of ASFV-G-ΔI177L or a vehicle control were challenged at 28 days post-inoculation (dpi) with 10 2 HAD 50 of ASFV-G. Analysis of purified peripheral blood mononuclear cells following inoculation and challenge revealed that CD4+, CD8+ and CD4+CD8+ central memory T cells (CD44+CD25–CD27–CD62L+CCR7+, T cm ) decreased significantly by 28 dpi in ASFV-G-ΔI177L-vaccinated swine compared to baseline and time-matched controls. Conversely, CD4+, CD8+ and CD4+CD8+ effector memory T cells (CD44+CD25–CD27–CD62–CCR7–, T em ) increased significantly among ASFV-G-ΔI177L-vaccined swine by 28 dpi compared to baseline and time-matched controls. Additionally, the percentage of natural killer (NK), CD4+ and CD4+CD8+ T em and CD8+ T cm and T em positive for IFNγ increased significantly following inoculation, surpassing that of controls by 28 dpi or earlier. These results suggest that NK and memory T cells play a role in prote
Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.
Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift
The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system
Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013–2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.
Refining a Novel Process Monitoring Method to Safeguard Continuously Cycling Designs Using Isotopic Ratios
In advanced reactor (AR) designs, a common feature is continuous chemical processing and circulation of the nuclear material. This work bridges a significant measurement gap in safeguarding reactors with circulating fuel or continuous refueling by leveraging and building on the isotope ratio method first developed by our team under an FY21 Advanced Reactors International Safeguards Engagement (ARISE) project (Uribe et al. 2021). In circulating fuel designs, the radioisotope inventory changes from traditional effects (e.g., radioactive decay, fission) but also includes material transport due to pressure and temperature gradients. Such designs may also require regular or continuous additions or removals during operation, which significantly increases the rate of inventory change compared to traditional pressurized water reactor (PWR)s. Thus, directly tracking the nuclear inventory is ineffective since the isotopes are continuously added and removed. The isotope ratio method instead focuses on detecting changes to the input and output flows of radioisotopes. Previous work showed that for well-chosen pairs of isotopes, the isotopic ratio provides a sensitive and lasting indicator of deviation from normal conditions (e.g., startup, shutdown, diversion). The isotope ratio method is a process monitoring method with potential for application in for forward-looking approaches to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. The original process monitoring method was developed for a specific case—the decay tank of a thorium-fueled molten salt breeder reactor. In this expanded work, we explored other types of reactors and processes with nonstationary (e.g., flowing) nuclear material, which are difficult to safeguard with traditional methods because of the transient nature of the systems. The goal of the present work is to generalize the isotope ratio method for use in processes with continuously flowing nuclear material. All continuous processes have an average time for isotopes to be replaced in the system. The isotope ratio method works by choosing radioisotopes with half-lives both above and below the processing time. The present work seeks to explore which isotopes are suitable for the method by simulating the nuclear inventory, radioisotope emissions, and detector responses for several classes of advanced reactors. While the method can in principle be applied to other processes (e.g., enrichment or reprocessing facilities), the present work limits scope to ARs with continuously flowing fuel. Section 2 details the mathematics supporting the isotope ratio method, and Section 3 introduces the representative ARs selected for this work. Section 4 discusses how each reactor was analyzed, and Section 5 showcases the results for each representative reactor. Finally, Section 6 provides concluding remarks and suggests pathways for further analysis.
An intercomparison of wall fluxes in a turbulent thermal convection chamber: Direct numerical simulations and wall-modeled large-eddy simulations enhanced by machine learning
Thermal convection in a closed chamber is driven by a warm bottom, a cold top, and side walls at various temperatures. Although wall fluxes are the source of convection energy, accurately modeling these fluxes (i.e., the wall model) is challenging. In large-eddy simulations (LESs), many wall models are traditionally derived from the canonical boundary layer, which may be unsuitable for thermal convection bounded by both horizontal and vertical walls. This study conducts a model intercomparison of dry convection in a cubic-meter chamber using three direct numerical simulations (DNSs) and four LESs with different wall models. The LESs employ traditional wall models, a new wall model employing physics-aware neural networks, and a refined grid near the walls. The experiment involves four cases with varying sidewall temperatures. Our results show that LESs capture the main flow features and the trends of mean fluxes. The physics-aware neural networks and refined wall grids can improve the temporally averaged local fluxes when the large-scale circulation has a preferred direction. Even without the local improvement of wall fluxes, the LES flow quantities (temperature and velocities) can still largely match those in DNSs, provided the mean flux largely matches the DNSs. Additionally, DNSs reveal that a variation in corner treatments has minimal impacts on the flow quantities away from corners. Finally, LESs underestimate the mean fluxes of the entire wall due to their inability to resolve corner regions, but their mean flux away from the corner can better match DNS.