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230 records · Page 13

Atg12 Maintains Skeletal Integrity by Modulating Pro-Osteoclastogenic Signals and Chondrocyte Differentiation

Weightlessness and radiation, two unique elements of space, profoundly decreases bone mass. This bone loss is attributed to increased activity of bone-resorbing osteoclasts and functional changes in bone-forming osteoblasts, cells that give rise to mature osteocytes. Our long-term goal is to identify signaling pathways that may be targeted to mitigate bone loss in scenarios of space exploration, radiotherapy and accidental radiation exposure. We have previously shown that exposure of MLO-Y4 osteocyte-like cells to simulated space radiation (56Fe) increased the expression of the pro-osteoclastogenic gene rankl and decreased protein levels of LC3B-II, a key player in autophagy. In this current study, we aimed to further elucidate the role of autophagy in maintaining structural integrity of the skeleton. We hypothesize that loss of autophagy in bone leads to an imbalance in pro-osteoclastogenic and pro-osteogenic signals, resulting in net bone loss. To test our hypothesis we performed global postnatal deletion of Atg12 using tamoxifeninducible Cre recombinase under the control of the CAG promoter. Six-week-old CAGCreERT2/ FloxAtg12 animals were treated daily with Tamoxifen or Vehicle (Control, oil only) for five days and euthanasia performed two weeks after the onset of treatment. Percent change in body weights (prior to treatment and at euthanasia) was not significantly different between treatment groups within the same gender. Compared to Vehicle (Control) groups, Tamoxifen (Atg12 iKO) groups showed decreased LC3B-I to II conversion and increased p62 protein levels, consistent with loss of autophagy. Quantitative PCR revealed increased expression of proosteoclastogenic cytokines mcp1 and rankl in bone and marrow respectively in male iKOs compared to male controls. Expression levels of these genes were not significantly altered in the Atg12 iKO females compared to females controls. Microcomputed tomography of tibiae revealed decreased cortical bone volume, cortical thickness and periosteal perimeter consistent with bone loss; and a longer primary spongiosa in male Atg12 iKOs display compared to male controls. These decrements were less pronounced in the female Atg12 iKOs. Cancellous bone structure was not significantly different between iKOs and controls in both genders. Histological analysis also revealed that compared to male controls, male iKOs showed a profound increase in chondrocyte column length of the growth plate with hyper-expansion of both proliferating and hypertrophic zones. Taken together, these findings indicate that autophagy plays an important role in the maintenance of bone structural integrity by mediating the production of proosteoclastogenic signals and regulating chondrocyte proliferation and differentiation.

autophagy↗

The Peaking Potential of Long-Duration Energy Storage in the United States Power System

In this work, we investigated the peaking potential for storage with durations of 4 h up to durations of 168 h (1 week). The peaking potential for a given storage duration is the amount of storage that can be added to a power system before that storage can no longer serve the peak net demand period at full rated capacity. We found that for the United States, 168 h of storage would be sufficient to serve about 27 % of peak demand, or about 215 GW in the current system. However, more than one-half of this amount could be served by storage with 12 h or less of capacity. As deployment of wind and solar grows, the peaking potential increases significantly, and under decarbonization scenarios, approximately one-half of the peak demand could be served by storage of up to 168 h; but again, the majority of this storage could be with durations of up to 12 h. The potential is also driven by the mix of wind and solar, and by storage efficiency, with the deployment of solar having the largest impact for both storage peaking potential and the mix of durations.

capacity expansion↗

Assessment of Economic Viability of Direct Current Fast Charging Infrastructure Investments for Electric Vehicles in the United States

As the global transportation sector increasingly adopts electric vehicles, the demand for advanced and accessible charging infrastructure is rising. In addition to at-home electric vehicle (EV) charging, there is a growing need for the swift development of commercial direct current fast charging (DCFC) stations to meet on-the-go EV charging demands. While government funds are available to support the expansion of the EV charging network in the United States, the establishment of a robust nationwide EV charging infrastructure requires significant private sector investment. This study was conducted to assess the economic feasibility of various business models for fast charging stations in the U.S. using two case studies and exploring different operational strategies including sole ownership and collaborative ventures with public and private entities. The results indicate that based on the current adoption and utilization rates in the U.S., the business model involving an owner-operator collaborating with a public partner ensures profitability and protects the investment in DCFC stations from financial losses. The study also highlights that demand charges and electricity retail prices are the factors that affect the profitability of a DCFC station.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sensing Clouds via Spacecraft Radio Occultation Observations

The presence of clouds dramatically alters the opacity and radiative transfer within Earth's atmosphere at both short and long wavelengths. Knowledge of cloud top and base is needed to estimate the Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) to space and the net radiation at the surface from a given atmospheric profile. Satellite observations are required to provide the global perspective needed for climate. Cloud top pressure can be determined to some accuracy from spaceborne radiance measurements when cloud opacities are sufficiently large and cloud top temperatures are sufficiently low to readily them from the surface. Cloud base is particularly difficult to determine from space. The relatively small sensitivity of long wavelengths must be used to penetrate the clouds while at the same time providing sufficient sensitivity to detect the cloud base. We are studying the indirect sensitivity of radio occultation observations to clouds through their impact on the refractivity structure. The tradewind inversion is an excellent example where a very sharp refractivity structure coincides with the top of the tradewind cumulus and stratus clouds. In general, any cloud with sufficient IR opacity will have large transmissivity gradient at cloud top (base) which will result in large cooling (heating) which will create a thermal inversion at cloud top (base). Both liquid and ice clouds can reach this critical opacity. The thermal inversion and sharp change in specific humidity will cause a sharp change in the refractivity gradient which can be identified in the radio occultation results, particularly the signal amplitude. The occultations yield very accurate information on the height of such features. The heating at cloud base drives convection causing the air to follow a moist adiabat within the Cloud which further helps constrain the interpretation of the observations. The upward expansion of such opaque clouds due to convection may be an important mechanism supplying moisture into the upper troposphere. We will present simulations using high resolution radiosondes from field campaigns representing the expected signatures of such features. We will also present initial results of comparisons between GPS observations and GOES-derived cloud tops to assess the utility of this concept.

Kursinski, E. R.↗

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Electroform/Plasma-Spray Laminates for X-Ray Optics

Electroform/plasma-spray laminates have shown promise as lightweight, strong, low-thermal-expansion components for xray optics. The basic idea is to exploit both (1) the well-established art of fabrication of optical components by replication and (2) plasma spraying as a means of reinforcing a thin replica optic with one or more backing layer(s) having tailorable thermomechanical properties. In x-ray optics as in other applications, replication reduces the time and cost of fabrication because grinding and polishing can be limited to a few thick masters, from which many lightweight replicas can thereafter be made. The first step in the fabrication of a component of the type in question is to make a replica optic by electroforming a thin layer of nickel on a master. Through proper control of the electroforming process conditions, it is possible to minimize residual stress and, hence, to minimize distortion in the replica. Next, a powder comprising ceramic particles coated with a metal compatible with the electroformed nickel is plasma-sprayed onto the backside of the nickel replica. Then through several repetitions and variations of the preceding steps or perhaps a small compressive stress, alternating layers of electroformed nickel and plasma-sprayed metal-coated ceramic powder are deposited. The thicknesses of the layers and the composition of the metal-coated ceramic powder are chosen to optimize the strength, areal mass density, and toughness of the finished component. An important benefit of using both electroforming and plasma spraying is the possibility of balancing stresses to a minimum level, which could be zero or perhaps a small net compressive stress designed to enhance the function of the component in its intended application.

Ulmer, Melville P.↗

Salinity Remote Sensing and the Study of the Global Water Cycle

The SMOS and AquariusISAC-D satellite missions will begin a new era to map the global sea surface salinity (SSS) field and its variability from space within the next twothree years. They will provide critical data needed to study the interactions between the ocean circulation, global water cycle and climate. Key scientific issues to address are (1) mapping large expanses of the ocean where conventional SSS data do not yet exist, (2) understanding the seasonal and interannual SSS variations and the link to precipitation, evaporation and sea-ice patterns, (3) links between SSS and variations in the oceanic overturning circulation, (4) air-sea coupling processes in the tropics that influence El Nino, and (4) closing the marine freshwater budget. There is a growing body of oceanographic evidence in the form of salinity trends that portend significant changes in the hydrologic cycle. Over the past several decades, highlatitude oceans have become fresher while the subtropical oceans have become saltier. This change is slowly spreading into the subsurface ocean layers and may be affecting the strength of the ocean's therrnohaline overturning circulation. Salinity is directly linked to the ocean dynamics through the density distribution, and provides an important signature of the global water cycle. The distribution and variation of oceanic salinity is therefore attracting increasing scientific attention due to the relationship to the global water cycle and its influence on circulation, mixing, and climate processes. The oceans dominate the water cycle by providing 86% of global surface evaporation (E) and receiving 78% of global precipitation (P). Regional differences in E-P, land runoff, and the melting or freezing of ice affect the salinity of surface water. Direct observations of E-P over the ocean have large uncertainty, with discrepancies between the various state-of-the-art precipitation analyses of a factor of two or more in many regions. Quantifying the climatic influence of the oceanic water cycle requires more accurately resolving the net air-sea water flux. Measuring global SSS trends on seasonal to interannual timescales by satellite is fundamental to this problem because the SSS trends represent detectable time-integrated signals of the variable marine hydrological cycle. Satellite measurements, coupled with an array of in situ observations, will provide global synoptic SSS fields for the first time history. These data will provide a strong constraint on climate models and data assimilation efforts, which must properly represent the freshwater budget in terms of E-P, ocean advection and surface layer mixing in order to accurately simulate the true ocean state. The SSS fields will allow us to quantify the covariability between the SSS and the strong seasonal E-P cycle in the tropics and high latitudes. Field measurement campaigns to exploit satellite and in situ measurements to close the seasonal E-P cycle over an ocean region are being considered. Lastly the satellite systems will monitor and trace the large long-lived SSS anomalies from year to year that have the potential to influence El Nino and the large scale ocean circulation.

Lagerloef, G. S. E.↗

Infrastructure and resource development needs to support a significant expansion of US nuclear capacity

In December 2023, the United States pledged at a United Nations conference to triple nuclear energy by 2050. In May of 2025 a new administration announced plans to quadruple nuclear energy by 2025, setting a new target that requires understanding the key infrastructure and resources needed to achieve large-scale deployment. This study attempts to quantify “what it takes” to deploy an additional 200 GWe of nuclear capacity. It projects demand levels for workforce, fuel, uranium mining and enrichment, waste management, supply chain, land, licensing, and water. Demand growth is also contextualized. For example, the peak number of construction workers required is approximately 215,000, a 37 % increase in the current US utility construction workforce. Up to 80,000 MT/year of mined uranium will be needed, necessitating a 60-fold increase in US mining production or a doubling of global mining if sourced externally. Advanced reactor fuels, uranium mining, and nuclear-grade equipment production would need substantial expansion. Operational workforce, enrichment needs, and licensing submissions also face significant increases. Although water consumption may see relatively lower increases, securing water rights poses unique challenges. This study consolidates various demand metrics in a broad context, highlighting the necessity of early preparations, such as workforce training, to support a tripling of nuclear energy. While it outlines the demand-side requirements, it does not assess the difficulties of ramping up or other supply-side issues. The findings also shed light on the impact of reactor size and reactor technology on various demand metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Defending the Homeland: Growing Foreign Challenges to the U.S. Missile Defense Posture

The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for Policy requested that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory conduct a Congressionally directed study on homeland missile defense, pursuant to Section 1692 of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. In accordance with the statutory language, this study considers whether the security benefits obtained by deployment of homeland missile defenses of the United States are undermined or counterbalanced by adverse reactions of potential adversaries, and considers the effectiveness of homeland missile defense efforts of the United States to deter the development of ballistic missiles. Almost a half-century has elapsed since the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and almost two decades since the former withdrew. Since withdrawing, the United States has sought to develop and deploy a layered missile defense system to defend against regional threats to U.S. and allied interests abroad and to counter limited threats to the U.S. homeland. As such, missile defense supports key national defense policy objectives. Protecting the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, allies, and partners. Deterring attacks against the United States, its allies, and partners. Assuring allies an strengthening U.S. diplomatic activities in peacetime and crisis. We offer five key findings: 1. The primary benefit of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is the protection it provides the U.S. homeland against a limited but evolving rogue-state missile threat. While this system has never been tested in combat, it appears thus far to have effectively paced North Korea’s development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In the absence of such a defensive capability, the United States would likely have been more heavily exposed to North Korean actions, would have operated at a much higher-risk posture, and would have had less negotiating room with which to navigate coercive tactics and crises. Its allies would have been more concerned about U.S. willingness in time of crisis and war to run the risks of protecting them. The GMD system also serves as a hedge against Iranian breakout. 2. Potential adversaries continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles despite deployment of a U.S. homeland missile defense system. This includes both rogue states and major power rivals whose long-range missile programs predated the deployment of U.S. missile defenses. While North Korea has continued its long-range missile developments and achieved an intercontinental capability, Iran has not yet reached this threshold. The broader proliferation of long-range missiles anticipated in the late 1990s has not materialized. 3. While Russia has used the existence of a U.S. homeland missile defense system as a justification for its substantial and continuing weapon modernization program, neither Russian force modernization nor the limited U.S. homeland missile defense system has altered the strategic balance. Russia has long considered U.S. missile defenses—both theater and homeland—as directed against its strategic forces and as a capability that could rapidly advance, thereby eroding Russian confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Russia’s political and military actions appear excessive and negatively impact areas such as arms control, but they do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 4. China’s expansion and diversification of nuclear and missile forces has been influenced by its concerns about U.S. homeland missile defense, but those concerns are only one of many factors in China’s force planning. Although China’s actions to preserve and expand its assured retaliation prospects have not fundamentally altered the strategic balance, its buildup and lack of transparency about its force modernization goals are troubling. Taken together, the aggregate pattern of China’s modernization activities over the past two decades strongly suggests a concerted effort to develop a modern military force commensurate with its intended geopolitical status. Whatever China’s legacy concerns over the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces, its ability to overwhelm the GMD system appears intact today and will be further strengthened in the years ahead as it continues its long-term modernization program. China’s political and military actions negatively affect U.S. security interests but do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 5. The basic finding that benefits have not so far been undermined by adverse reactions is a function of circumstances that are increasingly in flux. The existing GMD-centered system is under increasing pressure from the pace and scope of North Korean missile deployments. The proposed “layered” system seeks to mitigate this impending capability gap in the near term and to complement future capabilities, such as the Next Generation Interceptor, when they come online. Given the pace of U.S. missile defense developments since 2000, it is possible that adversary advances in capability will outpace the U.S. system’s ability to adapt. Additionally, because this layered system is in principle more readily scaled, it will almost certainly be viewed skeptically by China and Russia. In a context of growing great-power security competition, the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider undertaking a broader net assessment of the U.S., Russian, and Chinese force balance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Mid-Century Net-Zero Scenario for the State of Wyoming and its Economic Impacts

Clean hydrogen has the potential to help achieve 10% economy-wide emissions reductions by 2050 relative to 2005, promote energy security and resilience, and develop a new economy in the United States. In 2030, the hydrogen economy could create about 100,000 new jobs to build new capital projects and clean hydrogen infrastructure. The Wyoming Energy Authority recently announced the state’s energy strategy, which establishes a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Under all likely scenarios, achieving a mid-century net-zero target will pose challenges and create opportunities for Wyoming’s energy sector. If executed properly, the transition could favorably affect the state’s economy overall in the long term. This research program examines the economic impact of fossil energy production in Wyoming and provides various predictions for future energy mixes to achieve net-zero emissions. Preliminary work suggests that Wyoming-based hydrogen production could have significant economic benefits and job creation implications for Wyoming. This study further assesses Wyoming’s opportunities to create hydrogen-based industries, assess economic impacts, identify knowledge gaps and research needs, and create a Hydrogen Center of Excellence to accelerate commercialization and deployment. This project helped to understand Wyoming's areas of focus for research and development and identified its areas of strength and potential challenges in creating a hydrogen ecosystem. As a result of this study, we estimate that for blue hydrogen produced from coal and gas resources, the overall cost reduction will be driven mainly by the carbon-sequestration tax credit and the improvement in carbon capture. Mature technologies, like SMR and PSA, will make limited contributions. They have no or limited reductions from an additional capacity deployment in future costs. We also understand the importance of continued support from public and private sectors for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)-related research, development, and demonstration programs at federal and state levels. The successful and efficient production of blue hydrogen requires a unique blend of energy resources, geology, regulation, law, and infrastructure. Wyoming has the distinction of meeting all these demands. The team also estimates that the availability and command of water resources accessible for hydrogen production are crucial for developing new projects. Water treatment, use, and disposal after treatment will also make projects possible. Primarily, this is relevant for hydrogen made using renewable energy. Wyoming has one of the best wind resource capacity in the nation. Harnessing this resource is challenging due to limited transmission line availability. Hydrogen could become one of the solutions to the stranded resource problem, primarily if the water availability challenge is addressed. Using produced oil & gas water could help to solve the problem. A commonly cited barrier to the expansion of hydrogen markets is the cost associated with constructing new pipelines, which typically require large amounts of capital to develop. Wyoming already possesses much of the export infrastructure needed to connect Wyoming’s hydrogen production with major markets across the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Front Range regions of the United States, where a large portion of Wyoming’s natural gas is already transported. In addition to transportation by pipeline, rail transportation of hydrogen has also proven feasible. Wyoming uses its extensive railway system to transport large amounts of coal to its export partners across the United States. By using cryogenic or compressed-gas cars, Wyoming has the potential to add hydrogen to its existing network of railroad energy exports. The same technology may also be applied to hydrogen transport via trucks traveling interstate highways. Wyoming’s workforce is ready to meet the demands of clean hydrogen development. Many of the skills and training needed for hydrogen production are the same skills already possessed by Wyoming’s oil & gas and coal workforce. Many government and industry leaders expect clean hydrogen and other low-carbon energy projects to generate significant job growth and to recruit many already-trained oil & gas and coal workers whose jobs may be displaced. As energy companies seek to penetrate the markets for Wyoming hydrogen production, there is a natural mutual benefit to Wyoming’s workers and companies seeking to launch projects with the assistance of a trained workforce. Wyoming’s university and community college system have adopted several programs to ensure that highly qualified engineers and other technically skilled employees continue to graduate with skills to support the development of hydrogen and other innovative energy projects moving forward. Throughout the project, stakeholder outreach and education took many forms, including meetings with several major companies in the industry, collaborating with local government organizations, educational organizations, and national laboratories, tribal outreach and engagement, the sponsoring of several hydrogen-focused projects in many departments throughout the University of Wyoming, and developing a collaboration with international universities. The products of these collaborations consist of working relationships with several companies in the industry, educational institutions, national labs, and local government, as well as strong connections with individuals who will play an essential role in the success of the Hydrogen Energy Research Center.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A hub and spoke approach to optimizing energy wheeling of renewable resources

The deployment of zero carbon renewable energy sources needs to increase significantly to support the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. At the same time energy end use needs to decarbonize. This will change both energy supply and energy demand patterns, requiring the energy delivery infrastructure (grid-based transmission circuits) to become increasingly flexible to maintain security of supply everywhere and always. The integration of zero carbon renewable energy requires cross-border and cross energy system coupling and a fit-for-purpose design. Nowadays, energy systems are planned, designed and operated in silos with a strong national focus. However, large-scale offshore wind production needs to be transported to deep inland locations, across country borders. The increased peak generation capacity of renewable energy sources will, at times, significantly exceed demand (Matthew Langholtz, 2020). The traditional solution of continuously reinforcing and extending the electricity grid is not sustainable from a cost and societal perspective. This paper will, however, propose a deterministic approach on how networked (interconnected grid) Points of receipt (POR) to Points of Delivery (POD) can be optimized for wheeling renewable energy resources while minimizing energy cost with a hub and spoke approach. The statistical approach will be done via using existing daily energy market clearing prices, available transmission capacity and firm daily transmission prices in open access energy markets. Renewable energy targets, including specific offshore wind targets, need to be in line with the ramp-up as implied by the Paris Agreement. These targets are required to provide industry with a secure market outlook that allows them to build up supply chains accordingly. Optimizing wheeled energy paths from carbon neutral resources such as renewables make them not only cost competitive on the unit commitment stack, but also more accessible on the dispatch stack to other carbon heavy forms of generation such as coal and natural gas turbines (Matthew Langholtz, 2020). This correlates to maximizing renewable resource inertia (wind, solar, biomass) within an interconnected grid without having to consider additional expansion of resources via land purchases and de-forestation.

Mukherjee, Srijib↗

NASA Power: Global Solar Insolation, Meteorological Parameter Data, and Web Services to Support Sustainable Building Design and Operations

The buildings industry is currently striving to adopt green solutions to make infrastructure more energy-efficient in order to meet the 2050 net-zero climate goals. This planning requires reliable environmental datasets that are crucial in designing, building, and maintaining our world’s-built environment, as well as other energy-related processes and investments. This webinar for the National Institute of Building Sciences provides an overview of NASA’s Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project that informs decision-making and development for sustainable building design and operations by enabling public open discovery, efficient access, and convenient distribution of NASA’s Earth Observations and global atmospheric model datasets. POWER’s datastore is comprised of solar radiation and surface meteorology parameters, spanning nearly 40 years of hourly data, that are easily accessible via several access methods and tools to support three focus areas: 1) renewable energy deployment and management, 2) sustainable infrastructure, and 3) agroclimatology applications. POWER and NASA Earth Science both plan future data parameters, updated tools, and improved observations that could directly support U.S. and international sustainable development goals, climate strategies, and building information modeling. To this end, solar data from several NASA projects and meteorological data from NASA assimilation models have already been reformatted and disseminated to the public via a user-friendly web GIS-enabled based data portal through the POWER Project. POWER data is analysis-ready and accessible through an Application Programming Interface (API), ArcGIS Image Services, and the project’s Data Access Viewer enhanced (DAVe), an interactive online tool. The POWER DAVe also features data consistent with ASHRAE Climate Design Conditions and has developed web image services showing Building Climate Zones and their variability. Through those tools, the data can be downloaded into multiple formats that support the infrastructure community, including CSV and Energy Plus Weather (EPW). POWER’s entire data product catalog is available through Amazon Web Services (AWS) Open Data Registry (ODR) via a free and publicly accessible Simple Storage Service (S3). This webinar provides a full overview of the NASA POWER Project's data and services developed in collaboration with the sustainable infrastructure community. Examples of how the renewable energy and building communities have utilized POWER data products to make decisions and a preview of future data product expansion, including climate projections, and web services will also be provided. Additionally, use case stories from our broad community of users will be presented.

Paul W. Stackhouse↗

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗

On the differences in the vertical distribution of modeled aerosol optical depth over the southeastern Atlantic

Abstract. The southeastern Atlantic is home to an expansive smoke aerosol plume overlying a large cloud deck for approximately a third of the year. The aerosol plume is mainly attributed to the extensive biomass burning activities that occur in southern Africa. Current Earth system models (ESMs) reveal significant differences in their estimates of regional aerosol radiative effects over this region. Such large differences partially stem from uncertainties in the vertical distribution of aerosols in the troposphere. These uncertainties translate into different aerosol optical depths (AODs) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the free troposphere (FT). This study examines differences of AOD fraction in the FT and AOD differences among ESMs (WRF-CAM5, WRF-FINN, GEOS-Chem, EAM-E3SM, ALADIN, GEOS-FP, and MERRA-2) and aircraft-based measurements from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign. Models frequently define the PBL as the well-mixed surface-based layer, but this definition misses the upper parts of decoupled PBLs, in which most low-level clouds occur. To account for the presence of decoupled boundary layers in the models, the height of maximum vertical gradient of specific humidity profiles from each model is used to define PBL heights. Results indicate that the monthly mean contribution of AOD in the FT to the total-column AOD ranges from 44 % to 74 % in September 2016 and from 54 % to 71 % in August 2017 within the region bounded by 25∘ S–0∘ N–S and 15∘ W–15∘ E (excluding land) among the ESMs. ALADIN and GEOS-Chem show similar aerosol plume patterns to a derived above-cloud aerosol product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during September 2016, but none of the models show a similar above-cloud plume pattern to MODIS in August 2017. Using the second-generation High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) to derive an aircraft-based constraint on the AOD and the fractional AOD, we found that WRF-CAM5 produces 40 % less AOD than those from the HSRL-2 measurements, but it performs well at separating AOD fraction between the FT and the PBL. AOD fractions in the FT for GEOS-Chem and EAM-E3SM are, respectively, 10 % and 15 % lower than the AOD fractions from the HSRL-2. Their similar mean AODs reflect a cancellation of high and low AOD biases. Compared with aircraft-based observations, GEOS-FP, MERRA-2, and ALADIN produce 24 %–36 % less AOD and tend to misplace more aerosols in the PBL. The models generally underestimate AODs for measured AODs that are above 0.8, indicating their limitations at reproducing high AODs. The differences in the absolute AOD, FT AOD, and the vertical apportioning of AOD in different models highlight the need to continue improving the accuracy of modeled AOD distributions. These differences affect the sign and magnitude of the net aerosol radiative forcing, especially when aerosols are in contact with clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗