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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Interpolating between small- and large-$\mathscr{g}$ expansions using Bayesian model mixing

Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a statistical technique that can be used to combine models that are predictive in different input domains into a composite distribution that has improved predictive power over the entire input space. We explore the application of BMM to the mixing of two expansions of a function of a coupling constant $\mathscr{g}$ that are valid at small and large values of $\mathscr{g}$ respectively. This type of problem is quite common in nuclear physics, where physical properties are straightforwardly calculable in strong and weak interaction limits or at low and high densities or momentum transfers, but difficult to calculate in between. Interpolation between these limits is often accomplished by a suitable interpolating function, e.g., Padé approximants, but it is then unclear how to quantify the uncertainty of the interpolant. We address this problem in the simple context of the partition function of zero-dimensional Φ 4 theory, for which the (asymptotic) expansion at small $\mathscr{g}$ and the (convergent) expansion at large $\mathscr{g}$ are both known. We consider three mixing methods: linear mixture BMM, localized bivariate BMM, and localized multivariate BMM with Gaussian processes. Here, we find that employing a Gaussian process in the intermediate region between the two predictive models leads to the best results of the three methods. The methods and validation strategies we present here should be generalizable to other nuclear physics settings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accurate Electron-Phonon Interactions from Advanced Density Functional Theory

Electron-phonon coupling (EPC) is key to understanding charge transport, band renormalization, and superconductivity in energy materials, including correlated transition-metal oxides, ferroelectric perovskites, optoelectronic semiconductors, and phonon-mediated superconductors. Although first-principles density functional theory (DFT)-based EPC calculations are used widely, their predictive power is limited by the accuracy, transferability, and efficiency of the underlying exchange-correlation functionals. These limitations become exacerbated in complex 𝑑- and 𝑓-electron materials, where beyond-DFT approaches and additional corrections, such as the Hubbard 𝑈, are commonly invoked. Here, using the examples of Co⁢O and Ni⁢O, we show how the 𝑟 2 SCAN density functional correctly captures strong EPC effects in transition-metal oxides without requiring the introduction of Hubbard 𝑈 parameters. We also find that 𝑟 2 SCAN successfully describes the subtle interplay between ionic and covalent bonding, and strong EPC effects in the low-temperature rhombohedral phase of the prototypical ferroelectric Ba⁢Ti⁢O 3 , without requiring Hubbard 𝑈 and intersite 𝑉 corrections. We further demonstrate the ability of 𝑟 2 SCAN to accurately model the EPC of the main-group semiconductor Ga⁢As and the phonon-mediated superconducting properties of Mg⁢B 2 , with reliable electronic bands and phonons. Our study establishes 𝑟 2 SCAN-based EPC as a transferable, parameter-free, and computationally efficient framework for predictive material-specific modeling of EPC in energy materials, and opens a practical route toward high-throughput screening of superconductors, thermoelectrics, optoelectronic semiconductors, and oxide electrodes and catalysts.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainties due to irreducible three-body forces in deuteron-nucleus reactions

Deuteron-induced nuclear reactions are an essential tool for probing the structure of nuclei as well as astrophysical information such as (n, γ) cross sections. The deuteron-nucleus system is typically described within a Faddeev three-body model consisting of a neutron (n), a proton (p), and the target nucleus (A) interacting through pairwise phenomenological potentials. While Faddeev techniques enable the exact description of the three-body dynamics, their predictive power is limited in part by the omission of irreducible neutron-proton-nucleus three-body force (n–p–A 3BF). Here, our goal is to quantify systematic uncertainties stemming from the reduction of deuteron-nucleus (d + A) dynamics to a picture of three pointlike nuclear clusters interacting via pairwise nucleon-nucleus forces, using as testing grounds d + α scattering and the 6 Li ground state. We particularly focus on quantifying uncertainties arising from the full antisymmetrization of the (A + 2)-body system with the target nucleus fixed in its ground state. We adopt the ab initio no-core shell model coupled with the resonating group method (NCSM/RGM) to compute microscopic n–α and p–α interactions, and use them in a three-body description of the d + α system by means of momentum-space Faddeev-type equations. Simultaneously, we also carry out ab initio calculations of d + α scattering and 6 Li ground state by means of six-body NCSM/RGM calculations to serve as a benchmark for the three-body model predictions given by the Faddeev calculations. By comparing the Faddeev and NCSM/RGM results, we show that the irreducible n–p–α 3BF has a non-negligible effect on bound state and scattering observables alike. Specifically, the Faddeev approach yields a 6 Li ground state that is approximately 600 keV shallower than the one obtained with the NCSM/RGM. Additionally, the Faddeev calculations for d + α scattering yield a 3 + resonance that is located approximately 400 keV higher in energy compared to the NCSM/RGM result. The shape of the d + α angular distributions computed using the two approaches also differ, owing to the discrepancy in the predictions of the 3 + resonance energy. The Faddeev three-body model predictions for d + α scattering and 6 Li using microscopic n–α and p–α potentials differ from those computed microscopically with the NCSM/RGM. These discrepancies are due to the n–p–α 3BF, which arises from two-nucleon exchange terms in the microscopic d–α interaction and are not accounted for in the three-body model Faddeev calculations. This study lays the foundation for future parametrizations of the 3BF due to Pauli exclusion principle effects in improved three-body calculations of deuteron-induced reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Freight Mode Choice Models New Tricks Using Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2026

PRIME: An evaluation framework for protein representation inference and generalization in viral mutation space

Background Protein language models (PLMs) have revolutionized protein fitness prediction, yet their application to rapidly evolving viral pathogens is often confounded by extreme sequence homology. This homology leads to “data leakage” in standard random validation splits, yielding inflated performance metrics that fail to translate into real-world biosurveillance utility. Results We present Protein Representation Inference for Mutation Evaluation (PRIME), a framework that integrates domain-specific fine-tuning with a rigorous position-stratified validation protocol to evaluate viral threats. Using a dataset of 347,432 SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) sequences, we demonstrate that while random training data split yields deceptive R 2 values (> 0.90), they fail to generalize to novel mutational sites. By benchmarking models up to 650 M parameters, we show that domain-specific fine-tuning of the ESM-C 600 M model with correctly stratified data provides an initial demonstration of predictive signal for binding affinity and expression at unseen mutational sites of binding affinity and expression on unseen sites (R 2 ~0.23), a significant advancement over base foundation models which exhibit no predictive power (R 2 <0). PRIME’s embedding-based clustering identified 3.03% of bat coronavirus sequences as candidates for further experimental prioritization based on their functional similarity to human-infective strains in embedding space, offering a perspective complementary to traditional phylogenetic methods. Conclusion PRIME establishes a new benchmark for the application of PLMs in pathogen surveillance. Our findings demonstrate that state-of-the-art models and fine-tuning, when paired with stratified validation, provide biologically meaningful insights into pathogen evolution and zoonotic risk.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing emulation methods for a high‐resolution storm surge model

Abstract Realistic simulations of complex systems are fundamental for climate and environmental studies. Large computer systems are often not sufficient to run sophisticated computational models for large numbers of different input settings. Statistical surrogate models, or emulators, are key tools enabling fast exploration of the simulator input space. Gaussian processes have become standard for computer simulator emulation. However, they require careful implementation to scale appropriately, motivating alternative methods more recently introduced. We present a comparison study of surrogates of the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) simulator—the simulator of choice for government agencies—using four emulation approaches: BASS; BART; SEPIA; and RobustGaSP. SEPIA and RobustGaSP use Gaussian processes, BASS implements adaptive splines, and BART is based on ensembles of regression trees. We describe the four models and compare them in terms of computation time and predictive metrics. These surrogates use proven and distinct methodologies, are available through accessible software, and quantify prediction uncertainty. Our data cover millions of response values. We find that SEPIA and RobustGaSP provide exceptional predictive power, but cannot scale to emulate experiments as large as the one considered in this paper as effectively as BASS and BART.

Hutchings, Grant↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-scarce surrogate modeling of shock-induced pore collapse process

Understanding the mechanisms of shock-induced pore collapse is of great interest in various disciplines in sciences and engineering, including materials science, biological sciences, and geophysics. However, numerical modeling of the complex pore collapse processes can be costly. To this end, a strong need exists to develop surrogate models for generating economic predictions of pore collapse processes. Here, in this work, we study the use of a data-driven reduced-order model, namely dynamic mode decomposition, and a deep generative model, namely conditional generative adversarial networks, to resemble the numerical simulations of the pore collapse process at representative training shock pressures. Since the simulations are expensive, the training data are scarce, which makes training an accurate surrogate model challenging. To overcome the difficulties posed by the complex physics phenomena, we make several crucial treatments to the plain original form of the methods to increase the capability of approximating and predicting the dynamics. In particular, physics information is used as indicators or conditional inputs to guide the prediction. In realizing these methods, the training of each dynamic mode composition model takes only around 30 s on CPU. In contrast, training a generative adversarial network model takes 8 h on GPU. Moreover, using dynamic mode decomposition, the final-time relative error is around 0.3% in the reproductive cases. We also demonstrate the predictive power of the methods at unseen testing shock pressures, where the error ranges from 1.3 to 5% in the interpolatory cases and 8 to 9% in extrapolatory cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial neural networks estimate evapotranspiration for Miscanthus × giganteus as effectively as empirical model but with fewer inputs

Estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET) is particularly crucial for addressing how vegetation affects the water balance of ecosystems. ET estimation can be complex with empirical models due to their many parameters and reliance on aridity. In contrast, artificial neural networks (ANNs) could potentially estimate ET with fewer and more common meteorological parameters. In this study, we trained two ANNs, one using a feed-forward approach (FFN) and the other a nonlinear auto-regressive network (NARX), to predict ET and compared them to the commonly used empirical model Granger and Gray (GG). We trained our models on a nine-year eddy covariance (EC) dataset for Miscanthu s × giganteus ( M . × giganteus ) from Illinois (UIEF), then tested them using out-of-sample data from both UIEF and a different location in Iowa (SABR) to compare the accuracy of FFN, NARX, and GG models in estimating daily ET. A combination of air temperature (T a ) and solar radiation (R s ) was chosen as inputs due to the highest R 2 for FFN (R 2 = 0.79, 0.81, and 0.79 for training, testing, and validation, respectively) and only T a for NARX (R 2 = 0.70 for out-of-sample validation). The predictive power of the FFN model was superior to the NARX and GG models at the UIEF site (R 2 = 0.84, 0.70, and 0.83 for out-of-sample validation, respectively). Our analysis showed that ANN approaches are as accurate as empirical approaches for estimating ET but use fewer inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multifunctional Fibroblasts Enhanced via Thermal and Freeze-Drying Post-treatments of Aligned Electrospun Nanofiber Membranes

Parallel fibrous scaffolds play a critical role in controlling the morphology of cells to be more natural and biologically inspired. Among popular tissue engineering materials, poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) (pHEMA) has been widely investigated in conventional forms due to its biocompatibility, low toxicity, and hydrophilicity. However, the swelling of pHEMA in water remains a major concern. To address this issue, randomly oriented and aligned as-spun pHEMA nanofibrous scaffolds were first fabricated at speeds of 300 and 2000 rpm in this study, which were then post-treated using either a thermal or a freeze-drying method. In cell assays, human dermal fibroblasts (HDFs) adhered to the freeze-drying treated substrates at a significantly faster rate, whereas they had a higher cell growth rate on thermally-treated substrates. Results indicated that the structural properties of pHEMA nanofibrous scaffolds and subsequent cellular behaviors were largely dependent on post-treatment methods. Moreover, this study suggests that aligned pHEMA nanofibrous substrates tended to induce regular fibroblast orientation and unidirectionally oriented actin cytoskeletons over random pHEMA nanofibrous substrates. Such information has predictive power and provides insights into promising post-treatment methods for improving the properties of aligned pHEMA scaffolds for numerous tissue engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A systematic analysis of phase stability in refractory high entropy alloys utilizing linear and non-linear cluster expansion models

We report that obtaining surrogate models for various types of materials has long been a goal of computational material scientists and physicists, as they allow the calculation of thermodynamic quantities and properties of interest far more efficiently than DFT. Many surrogate models, including interatomic potentials generated by machine learning algorthims and cluster expansions, rely on incorporating many-body interactions such as three-body or four-body interactions. When utilizing machine learning algorithms for interatomic potentials, it is common to start with two-body interactions and systematically include three- and four-body clusters to improve the fit, stopping when including the additional clusters does not measurably change the predictive power of the model. In cluster expansions for FCC and related lattices, it is often enough to include mostly two-body interactions and a handful of three-body interactions. However, it remains to be seen whether those will be enough in the case of lattices with a lower packing fraction, such as BCC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hall–Petch strengthening limit through partially active segregation in nanocrystalline Ag-Cu alloys

The breakdown from grain-size strengthening to softening mechanisms is generally well understood for high-purity nanocrystalline materials when the mean grain size decreases to the nanometer range. In nanocrystalline alloys, however, the stabilization of nanosized grains by grain-boundary solute segregation complicates the above mechanisms. Moreover, current segregation models have little predictive power for determining the optimal solute content that maximizes Hall-Petch strengthening effects. In this article, using large-scale hybrid Monte-Carlo/molecular dynamic simulations, we present a systematic study of the Hall–Petch breakdown in Cu-segregated Ag alloys with grain sizes ranging from 8 nm to 59 nm, where three concentration-dependent regimes of plasticity are described: (1) Classical segregation strengthening behavior at low solute contents, (2) shear band-induced softening at high solute contents, and (3) a previously unknown, but extended plateau of maximum strengths for intermediate solute contents from 4 to 15 at.%, which we term as nanocrystalline Sterling silver. We find that flow strengths in nanocrystalline Sterling alloys naturally exhibit a zero-slope limit at the smallest grain sizes that is well below the ideal Hall–Petch strengthening trend. This phenomenon results from partially active grain-boundary segregation that acts to influence interfacial plasticity in some, but not all, grain boundary regions. Our findings amplify the atomic nature of solute segregation and interaction at grain boundaries and its complex roles on grain boundary-mediated plasticity mechanisms in nanocrystalline alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlations between thermal history and keyhole porosity in laser powder bed fusion

Additive manufacturing has the potential to revolutionize the production of metallic components as it yields near net shape parts with complex geometries and minimizes waste. At the present day, additively manufactured components face qualification and certification challenges due to the difficulty in controlling defects. This has driven a significant research effort aimed at better understanding and improving processing controls – yielding a plethora of in-situ measurements aimed at correlating defects with material quality metrics of interest. In this work, we develop machine-learning methods to learn correlations between thermal history and subsurface porosity for a variety of print conditions in laser powder bed fusion. Un-normalized surface temperatures (in the form of black-body radiances) are obtained using high-speed infrared imaging and porosity formation is observed in the sample cross-section through synchrotron x-ray imaging. To demonstrate the predictive power of these features, we present four statistical machine-learning models that correlate temperature histories to subsurface porosity formation in laser fused Ti-6Al4V powder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning and ligand binding predictions: A review of data, methods, and obstacles

We report that computational predictions of ligand binding is a difficult problem, with more accurate methods being extremely computationally expensive. The use of machine learning for drug binding predictions could possibly leverage the use of biomedical big data in exchange for time-intensive simulations. This paper reviews current trends in the use of machine learning for drug binding predictions, data sources to develop machine learning algorithms, and potential problems that may lead to overfitting and ungeneralizable models. A few popular datasets that can be used to develop virtual high-throughput screening models are characterized using spatial statistics to quantify potential biases. We can see from evaluating some common benchmarks that good performance correlates with models with high-predicted bias scores and models with low bias scores do not have much predictive power. A better understanding of the limits of available data sources and how to fix them will lead to more generalizable models that will lead to novel drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil frost controls streamflow generation processes in headwater catchments

The relationship between snowmelt and spring streamflow is changing under warming temperatures and diminishing snowpack. At the same time, the hydrologic connectivity across catchment landscape elements, such as snowpack and surface wetlands, can play a critical role in controlling the routing of snowmelt to streams. The role of hydrologic connectivity is important in headwater regions of the continental northern latitudes, where catchments have low topographic relief and seasonally frozen ground. Nevertheless, the effects of soil frost on the sequence, timing, and magnitudes of hydrologic events that drive the movement of water from a snowpack to a stream are not fully understood. Therefore, we examine two questions: First, what is the flowpath that snow melt and precipitation from spring rain events takes to generate spring streamflow, and second, what hydrologic, climatic, or landscape variables exert the most control on the magnitude of streamflow? In this work, we use long-term hydrological records from the two reference basins at the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota to analyze the cascading effects across precipitation, snow, water table elevation, soil frost, and streamflow in peatland-dominated headwater catchments. We identify a sequence of fill-and-spill effects across the landscape that control the timing of spring streamflow generation. Then, we use stepwise regression to show that soil frost is a key supporting predictor for both the magnitude of streamflow in the spring as it adds significantly to the predictive power of precipitation and water table elevation. Our results highlight the importance of recognizing the role of soil frost, when present, on the partitioning of snowmelt between overland runoff and water table recharge during the critical snowmelt period, as well as the later partitioning between evapotranspiration and subsurface flows.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying the nature of the QCD transition in heavy-ion collisions with deep learning

In this proceeding, we review our recent work using deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to identify the nature of the QCD transition in a hybrid modeling of heavy-ion collisions. Within this hybrid model, a viscous hydrodynamic model is coupled with a hadronic cascade “after-burner”. As a binary classification setup, we employ two different types of equations of state (EoS) of the hot medium in the hydrodynamic evolution. The resulting final-state pion spectra in the transverse momentum and azimuthal angle plane are fed to the neural network as the input data in order to distinguish different EoS. To probe the effects of the fluctuations in the event-by-event spectra, we explore different scenarios for the input data and make a comparison in a systematic way. We observe a clear hierarchy in the predictive power when the network is fed with the event-by-event, cascade-coarse-grained and event-fine-averaged spectra. The carefully-trained neural network can extract high-level features from pion spectra to identify the nature of the QCD transition in a realistic simulation scenario.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗