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At least 235 records · Page 13

4D evolution of Cr 23 C 6 precipitates in neutron-irradiated and annealed HT-UPS steel observed via synchrotron micro-computed tomography

High-temperature-ultrafine precipitate strengthened (HT-UPS) steel is a potential structural material for advanced nuclear reactors; however, its irradiation response is not well understood. This research provides insight into irradiation-induced effects, such as precipitate evolution mechanisms and four-dimensional morphological evolution, in HT-UPS steel using synchrotron micro-computed tomography. Identical specimens were characterized pre-irradiation and post-irradiation following neutron exposure up to 0.3 displacements per atom at 600 °C. Irradiation effects were also differentiated from the annealing response of precipitates. Following neutron irradiation, the average Cr 23 C 6 precipitate size reduced, affected by the synergy of nucleation and growth, ballistic dissolution, and inverse coarsening, which was observed at fluences an order of magnitude lower than previously observed. Annealing at 600 °C for 32 h increased the average Cr 23 C 6 precipitate size and decreased the phase fraction, attributed to precipitate coarsening. The precipitate morphology evolution and resultant mechanisms can be utilized to parameterize and validate microstructural models simulating radiation damage or annealing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Parameterization of arctic hydrometeor physics using new precipitation measurement technologies: Final Report

Predictions of precipitation are highly sensitive to the accuracy of parameterized growth and sedimentation processes, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic where observations are scarce. The goal of this study was to combine measurements of meteorological conditions and retrievals from passive and active remote sensors to provide refined parameterizations of precipitation properties and processes with a particular focus on the Arctic. To accomplish the project goals, new instrumentation was used from the Oliktok Point Mobile Facility and the Utqiagvik (Barrow) North Slope of Alaska ARM site focusing in particular on Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) data. The MASC is the first device able to automatically photograph precipitation particles in free-fall from multiple angles while simultaneously measuring their fall speed. The MASC installed at the ARM Oliktok Point and Utqiagvik facilities was used to examine the nature of Arctic precipitation, taking particular advantage of the unique suite of precipitation, meteorological, and remote sensing instrumentation that is available at the high latitude sites. Combined with radiometer data we were able to explore the relationship between precipitation particle characteristics and the clouds where the snow is created. Ground-based wind measurements provided detailed data on turbulence. Further theoretical work explored the physical mechanisms controlling precipitation size distributions, the physics determining hydrometeor fallspeed, and the existence of general solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations for falling particles. Outreach work introduced hydrometeor classification to classrooms across the United States.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Transfer and Flushing Evaluation for Potential Precipitated Solids in the 241-AP-106 to EMF Transfer Pipeline for DFLAW

Waste transfer pipeline flushing is necessary to maintain pipeline performance, but added flush fluid increases the nuclear waste inventory. During the Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) mission, waste transfer lines from the Interim Low-Activity Waste Storage Tank (i.e., 241-AP-106) to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility must have the capability of being flushed to prevent accumulation of solids and to mitigate corrosion concerns. Operational experience at Hanford has shown that the solids precipitation occurs during processing operations from dilute Hanford liquids. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was requested to evaluate the potential precipitated solid particle transport and flushing operational capabilities of the AP-106 through the Effluent Management Facility (EMF) low-point drain LAW feed pipeline. The evaluation results do not provide operational requirements, but rather provide a scoping basis for understanding the potential operational significance of solids precipitation in the pipeline. The salt and aluminum phase solids most likely to precipitate from the LAW feeds during cooling, evaporation, or mixing have particle densities that are estimated to range from 1.62 to 2.78 g/mL and a spherical particle size range of 8 to 2100 μm, depending on the solid phase considered. Application of the method to calculate the critical deposition velocity required by TFC-ENG-STD-26 at conservatively bounding estimates for the solids concentrations demonstrates that potentially precipitated solids may deposit on the bottom of the transfer pipe invert at the lower LAW feed pipeline flow rate, but the upper LAW feed pipeline flow rate will likely prevent deposition. The system pressure limit for the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline likely exceeds any pressure loss at a calculated critical deposition velocity even for the most adverse potential precipitated solid. However, should solids settle as a result of no-flow conditions, the flow capabilities of the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline are shown, based on the available literature, to be potentially inadequate for effective flushing operations to remove solids, even at solids concentrations below the maximum specified for LAW feed. Thus, stepwise solids accumulations over multiple transfers may be an issue, and eventual line plugging may occur. Further inadequacies may potentially be realized should the cohesive nature of certain precipitates be accounted for.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs

Previous climate modeling studies demonstrate the ability of feedback-regulated, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering with injection at multiple independent latitudes to meet multiple simultaneous temperature-based objectives in the presence of anthropogenic climate change. However, the impacts of climate change are not limited to rising temperatures but also include changes in precipitation, loss of sea ice, and many more; knowing how a given geoengineering strategy will affect each of these climate metrics is vital to understanding the limits and trade-offs of geoengineering. Here, we first introduce a new method of visualizing the design space in which desired climate outcomes are represented by 2-D surfaces on a 3-D graph. Surface orientations represent how different injection choices influence that objective, and intersecting surfaces represent objectives which can be met simultaneously. Using this representation as a guide, we present simulations of two new strategies for feedback-regulated aerosol injection, using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – CESM1(WACCM). The first simultaneously manages global mean temperature, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent, while the second manages global mean precipitation, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent. Both simulations control the tropical precipitation centroid to within 5 % of the goal, and the latter controls global mean precipitation to within 1% of the goal. Additionally, the first simulation overcompensates sea ice, while the second undercompensates sea ice; all of these results are consistent with the expectations of our design space model. In addition to showing that precipitation-based climate metrics can be managed using feedback alongside other goals, our simulations validate the utility of our design space visualization in predicting our climate model behavior under a given geoengineering strategy, and together they help illustrate the fundamental limits and trade-offs of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Precipitation Classification during Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory Campaign

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign, conducted from September 2021 to June 2023 in Crested Butte, Colorado, aimed to characterize precipitation processes in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). This increased observations of snowfall accumulation in this hydrologically significant watershed would be useful for quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE). Therefore, the Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (SQUIRE) product was developed using the ARM-supported Colorado State University (CSU) X-band Precipitation Radar. Although SQUIRE will be only released for snowfall, by categorizing precipitation types, users can effectively utilize relevant datasets under diverse meteorological conditions. Moreover, the dataset facilitates validation of the QPE product and the analysis of seasonal variations in precipitation types at the surface. Hydrometeors classes are organized based on their phase and physical characteristics mapping the CSU (both winter Summer) and Py-ART classifications into four groups. 1. Liquid Precipitation: includs drizzle, rain, and large raindrops. 2. Frozen Snow and Ice : Pure Snow, combining ice crystals, aggregates, and vertically oriented ice structures. 3. Dense and Large frozen hydrometeors: including low- and high-density graupel and dry hail. 4.Melting: Wet Snow and Melting Hail, hydrometeors exhibiting both liquid and frozen characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting the potential for mineral scale precipitation in unconventional reservoirs due to fluid-rock and fluid mixing geochemical reactions

Mineral precipitation within hydraulically fractured shale may affect fluid flow pathways and impact longterm hydrocarbon production. The ability to predict geochemical reactions that lead to problematic mineral precipitation will lead to active reservoir management strategies to improve overall production. Using the Marcellus Shale as a case study, a combination of laboratory experiments and reaction path modeling was applied to determine which reactions are likely to occur upon introduction of hydraulic fracturing fluid into the shale reservoir. Experimental results indicate that contact between fracturing fluid and shale will result in dissolution of primary minerals (quartz, feldspars, kaolinite, chlorite, pyrite) and secondary mineral precipitation over time periods of less than one week. Precipitation of barite, Fe-oxides, feldspars, amorphous silica and clay is likely to occur within the reservoir during shut in and early flowback due to mixing between fracturing fluid and reservoir brine as based on modeling saturation indices using experimental fluid data. Reaction path modeling of the experimental scenarios corroborates the specific dissolution and precipitation reactions observed experimentally. Comparison of the results to injected and produced waters from a Marcellus Shale well pad in Greene County, PA, USA, shows that the mineral reactions occur during the hydraulic fracturing, shut in, and early flowback periods. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the value in applying experimental approaches to identify mineral precipitation/dissolution reactions that may significantly impact reservoir performance. The good agreement between geochemical models and experimental results provides confidence that numerical models can be applied to screen the potential fluid-mineral and fluid-mixing reactions in unconventional reservoirs that result in undesired mineral scale precipitation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions

Simulated historical precipitation is evaluated for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The model indices are evaluated against corresponding indices from the CPC unified gauge-based analyses of precipitation over seven geographical regions across the contiguous US (CONUS). The regions assessed match those in recent US National Climate Assessment Reports. To estimate observational uncertainty, precipitation indices for three other observational datasets (HadEx2, Livneh and PRISM) are evaluated against the CPC analyses. Both the moderate and extreme mean precipitation intensities are overestimated over the western CONUS and underestimated in the areas of the Central Great Plains (CGP) in most CMIP6 models tested. Most CMIP6 models overestimate the mean and variability of wet spell durations and underestimate the mean and variability of dry spell durations across the CONUS. Biases in interannual variability of most of the indices have similar patterns to those in corresponding mean biases. The median and interquartile model spreads in CMIP6 model biases are clearly smaller than those in CMIP5 model biases for wet spell durations. Multimodel medians of CMIP6 (CMIP6-MMM) and CMIP5 (CMIP5-MMM) have similar biases in climatology and variability but biases tend to be smaller in CMIP6-MMM. Depending on the index, extreme precipitation is slightly better in parts of the eastern half of the CONUS in CMIP6-MMM, otherwise, the biases in climatology and variability are similar to CMIP5-MMM. CMIP6-MMM performs better than individual models and even observational datasets in some cases. Differences between observational datasets for most indices are comparable to the CMIP6 interquartile model spread. The better-performing observational and model datasets are different in different parts of the CONUS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deficient precipitation sensitivity to Sahel land surface forcings among CMIP5 models

Abstract The overall performance of the simulated seasonal precipitation response to local terrestrial forcings, namely vegetation abundance and soil moisture, in the Sahel among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) Earth System Models (ESMs) is systematically investigated and compared with its observational counterpart using a multivariate statistical method. The observed seasonal precipitation response is evaluated against a large ensemble of observational, reanalysis, and satellite data sets to provide quantification of uncertainties. The behaviour of models with and without a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) component is also explored, along with the mechanisms responsible for terrestrial feedback on rainfall. In general, the CMIP5 models can reasonably capture the seasonal evolution of Sahel precipitation and soil moisture, albeit with wet biases during the pre‐monsoon period and dry biases during the peak monsoon period. The non‐DGVM ESMs simulate comparable leaf area indices (LAIs) with observations, while DGVM‐enabled ESMs simulate too much year‐round LAI. The variance of precipitation that is attributed to oceanic forcings in CMIP5 is comparable with observations; however, the variance of precipitation that is attributed to terrestrial forcings is smaller in CMIP5 models than observed, especially for non‐DGVM ESMs. CMIP5 models, especially those without DGVMs, undervalue precipitation's observed response strength to soil moisture anomalies. In both observations and CMIP5 models, none of the atmospheric variables show significant responses to direct vegetation forcing, except for the response in transpiration. Although vegetation has minimal direct effect on the atmospheric state, it can affect the atmosphere by modifying soil moisture and transpiration rate indirectly, which helps explain the more realistic simulation of rainfall in DGVM‐enabled ESMs than non‐DGVM ESMs. Coupling of an ESM to a DGVM is critical in generating reasonable land–atmosphere feedback and examining future ecological and climatic changes over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over global monsoon systems in CMIP6 simulations

Accurate simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over different climate regimes, including global monsoon systems, is an ongoing challenge for current state-of-the-art climate models. Here, in this study, the diurnal cycles of summertime precipitation from 21 CMIP6 historical simulations are evaluated with the NASA IMERG data via the diurnal harmonic amplitude and phase from the Fourier analysis in seven regional monsoon systems: Northern and Southern Africa monsoons, South Asia monsoon, East Asia monsoon, Australia monsoon, and North and South America monsoons. Particularly, we focus on four subregions including ocean, coastal ocean, land, and coastal land considering the different underlying physical processes. It is found that the CMIP6 historical simulations perform fairly well on reproducing the diurnal cycle of precipitation over ocean and coastal ocean, while the simulated diurnal harmonic phase and amplitude over land and coastal land show larger biases and model spread compared to biases over ocean and coastal ocean. The simulation of precipitation diurnal cycle is substantially improved in the multi-model mean of both CMIP6 historical and CMIP6 AMIP simulations compared with that of CMIP5 historical simulations. But the model bias of precipitation diurnal cycle is in general similar between CMIP6 AMIP and CMIP6 historical simulations, which suggests that the impact of the interactive ocean on the simulated diurnal precipitation averaged over a large domain is generally minor. The influence of model resolution on the diurnal cycle is shown in mixed directions across various subregions, and significant improvement from the low- to high-resolution models is only notable over coastal ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using post-processing heat treatments to elucidate precipitate strengthening of additively manufactured superalloy 718

The poor machinability and extensive work hardening of Ni-based superalloys makes additive manufacturing an attractive option for producing geometrically complex components with distinct microstructures. Although previous studies show recovery of high strength at room temperature, very few studies demonstrate successful properties at elevated temperatures required for industrial applications. Here, the objectives of this study are to present a post-build heat treatment for high strength across a wide temperature range, determine the strength contribution of nanoscale precipitating phases to the overall mechanical properties of superalloy 718, and from these, provide a comprehensive microstructure-property relationship for wrought and AM 718 to guide efforts to simulate the properties of AM components. Laser powder bed fusion–produced superalloy 718 was characterized at multiple length scales using scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy in the as-built condition and with multiple heat treatments designed to form combinations of γ', γ", and δ precipitates. Uniaxial tensile tests performed from room temperature to 600 °C on subsize specimens determined the yield strength, elastic modulus, ultimate tensile strength, fracture stress, and uniform elongation. Precipitates in this work proved to be weak barriers to dislocation motion through a dispersed barrier model, but they provided strength to the alloy through their consistent high density. The relative contribution to the yield strength from γ" remained consistent between 48% and 57% of the total strength up to 600 °C, the primary influence on the high temperature strength of superalloy 718. The strength factors for γ" and δ precipitates were found to trend inversely with tensile test temperature and may be attributable to the differences in precipitate coherency. A post-build heat treatment is recommended to maintain high strength at elevated temperatures. A quantitative microstructure-property relationship, dependent on precipitate size, density, and morphology, was derived and can estimate the yield strength across a wide temperature range applicable to the operational regimes for superalloy 718.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cluster dynamics modeling of Mn-Ni-Si precipitates coupled with radiation-induced segregation in low-Cu reactor pressure vessel steels

Formation of precipitates enhanced or induced by irradiation causes hardening and embrittlement of nuclear structural materials. Post-irradiation microstructure characterization of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels has shown that precipitation can be strongly associated with radiation-induced segregation (RIS) of solutes on dislocations. However, RIS and precipitation have not been coupled in previous precipitation modeling of RPV steels. Here in this study, a new hybrid and spatially-dependent precipitation model is developed that couples cluster dynamics with RIS, providing an unique way to account for concurrent evolution of heterogeneous cluster densities as well as solute and point defect concentration profiles. The model is applied to study the segregation of Mn, Ni, and Si on dislocations and heterogeneous nucleation of Mn-Ni-Si rich precipitates (MNSPs) in a low-Cu RPV steel. The result shows that the onset of MNSP nucleation on dislocations occurs at the fluence of 2 x 10 23 n.m -2 . The number density and mean radius can reach ~ 10 24 m -3 and 1-2 nm at high fluence, respectively. These observations suggest that the role of RIS and heterogeneous nucleation can be significant for RPV steels under a high fluence of irradiation. Results of simulations adopting various dose rates and dislocation densities show an increased fraction of MNSPs on dislocations at the condition of low dose rate, high dislocation density, and high fluence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The effect of phosphorus on precipitation in irradiated reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels

Embrittlement of light water reactor pressure vessels (RPV) steels by fast neutron irradiation may limit extended nuclear plant life. Embrittlement, which is manifested as increases in various indexes of a ductile to brittle transition temperatures (ΔT), is primarily due to hardening by nanoscale precipitates containing Cu, Ni, Mn, and Si, which form under irradiation. In addition to these elements, P has also been found to play a role in embrittlement. While only slightly enriched in the precipitates, hardening and embrittlement increase with trace P concentrations in low-Cu steels. Here, we characterize the individual and synergistic irradiation precipitation and hardening mechanisms in a series of RPV steels containing no to low-Cu and with systematic variations in Ni and P. In this study, the steels were irradiated to a fluence of ~ 1.38 x 10 20 n/cm 2 at ~ 292 °C in the UCSB ATR-2 experiment. In Cu-free medium and high-Ni RPV steels, atom probe tomography shows that P and Ni promotes precipitation of P-Mn-Si-Ni and Mn-Si-Ni precipitates, respectively. The precipitate microstructure correlates with the observed irradiation hardening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Precipitation behavior near shrinkage porosity in a large sand casting of Haynes 282 alloy

The precipitation behavior of L1 2 structure Ni 3 (Al,Ti)-type γ' precipitates near shrinkage porosity in a large sand casting of Haynes 282 alloy has been investigated by scanning/transmission electron microscopy in conjunction with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. The experimental results revealed that in the carbonitride-rich region close to the shrinkage porosity, γ' precipitates could still form with comparable sizes though at lower volume density than those in the general cast Ni matrix. The resulting γ' precipitates had a very high Al/Ti ratio. Close to oxide-rich pore surfaces, an absence of γ' precipitates was observed due to Al and Ti depletion by forming Al oxides and Ti carbonitrides, respectively. This work suggests that Al rather than Ti plays a dominant role in the formation of γ' precipitates in porous regions in cast Haynes 282 alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Influence of grain size on α' Cr precipitation in an isothermally aged Fe-21Cr-5Al alloy

Cr-rich α' precipitation during aging typically leads to hardening and accordingly embrittlement of FeCrAl alloys, which needs to be suppressed. The influence of grain size on α' precipitation was studied by aging coarse-grained (CG), ultra-fine grained (UFG), and nanocrystalline (NC) ferritic Kanthal-D [KD; Fe-21Cr-5Al (wt.%) alloy] at 450, 500 and 550 °C for 500 h. After aging at 450 and 500 °C, less hardening was observed in the UFG KD than in CG KD. Atom probe tomography indicated a lower number density and larger sized intragranular α' in the UFG versus the CG alloy. The smaller grain size and higher defect (vacancy and dislocation) density in the UFG KD facilitated diffusion and accordingly enhanced precipitation kinetics, leading to coarsening of precipitates, as well as saturation of precipitation at lower temperatures, as compared to those in CG KD. No hardening occurred in UFG and CG KD after aging at 550 °C, indicating that the miscibility gap is between 500 and 550 °C. NC KD exhibited softening after aging owing to grain growth. α' precipitation occurred in NC KD aged at 450 °C but not at 500 °C, indicating that miscibility gap is between 450 and 500 °C. Thus, the significantly smaller grain size in NC KD decreased the miscibility gap, as compared to that in CG and UFG KD. Finally, this is attributed to the absorption of vacancies by migrating grain boundaries during aging, suppressing α' nucleation and enhancing Cr solubility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Projected Changes to Extreme Precipitation Along North American West Coast From the CESM Large Ensemble

Precipitation events along the North American (NA) west coast are strongly modulated by atmospheric rivers, yet the mechanisms of their influences on the probability distributions of precipitation events are not well studied. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble under global warming are investigated using a moisture budget conditioned onto precipitation events for the recurrence intervals ranging from 0.1 to 50 years. In the midlatitudes, the increases in precipitation intensity and accumulation for all events over the NA west coast are predominantly controlled by moisture increases. In contrast, changes in the subtropical precipitation distributions in southwestern NA are associated with moisture increases and duration decreases for all events, with additional dynamical amplification for the heaviest precipitation events. These interpretations from the conditional moisture budget are more consistent with future projection of atmospheric rivers than the conventional mean and transient decomposition of the moisture budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Here, inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗