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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Density pedestal prediction model for tokamak plasmas

Abstract A model for the pedestal density prediction based on neutral penetration combined with pedestal transport is presented. The model is tested against a pedestal database of JET-ILW Type I ELMy H-modes showing good agreement over a wide range of parameters both in standalone modelling (using the experimental temperature profile) and in full Europed modelling that predicts both density and temperature pedestals simultaneously. The model is further tested for ASDEX Upgrade and MAST-U Type I ELMy H-modes and both are found to agree with the same model parameters as for JET-ILW. The JET-ILW experiment where the isotope of the main ion is varied in a D/T scan at constant gas rate and constant β N is successfully modelled as long as the separatrix density ( n e,sep ) and pedestal transport coefficient ratio ( D / χ ) are varied in accordance with the experimentally observed variation of n e,sep and the isotope dependence of D / χ found in gyrokinetic simulations. The predictions are found to be sensitive to n e,sep which is why the model is combined with an n e,sep model to predict the pedestal for the STEP fusion reactor.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive turbulence-driven flux model of scrape-off layer widths across confinement regimes in tokamaks

Reliable scrape-off layer (SOL) profile decay lengths predictions are needed to design and operate future tokamaks. The present manuscript describes a new model based on turbulent transport that is able to predict SOL widths for both L-mode and H-mode plasmas. The model is based upon the sheared-spectral filament paradigm (Peret et al (WEST Team) 2022 Phys. Plasmas 29 072306), however, incorporating the effects of thermal transport in order to calculate the parallel heat fluxes. The effects of magnetic shear and ExB shear on the cross-field transport are crucial to explain the shorter SOL decay lengths found in H-mode. The model is validated against a database of thousands of DIII-D L-mode and H-mode SOL profiles. We also calculate SOL decay length predictions in terms of plasma and engineer control parameters, which are in agreement with the multi-machine empirical H-mode scaling (Eich et al (ASDEX Upgrade Team and JET EFDA Contributors) 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 093031), however, with an additional device geometry dependence. ITER SOL width predictions by the model are 3 times higher than the empirical scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum chemically calculated Abraham parameters for quantifying and predicting polymer hydrophobicity

The leakage and accumulation of plastic in the environment is a significant and growing problem with numerous detrimental impacts and has led to a push toward the design and development of more environmentally benign materials. To this end, we have developed a quantum chemistry-based model for predicting the mobility of polymer materials from molecular structure. Hydrophobicity is used as a surrogate for mobility given that hydrophobic interactions drive much of the partitioning of contaminants in and out of various environmentally relevant compartments. To model polymer hydrophobicity, we adjusted a previously developed Quantum Chemically Calculated Abraham Parameter model to calculate Abraham parameters of small molecules from molecular structure information. The resulting model predicted the octanol-water partition coefficient (K OW ) of polymer repeating units with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.48 (log scale). Additionally, the hydrophobicity of high molecular weight polymer materials was captured through solubility parameters and Nile red staining experiments from the literature and predicted with RMSEs of 1.21 (J/cc) 0.5 and 3.42 nm, respectively. Finally, to test the environmental applicability of the model, the relative adsorption capacity of three polymers was predicted and used to unify sorption isotherms across multiple sorbates and polymer sorbents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Axion Mass Prediction from Adaptive Mesh Refinement Cosmological Lattice Simulations

The quantum chromodynamics (QCD) axion arises as the pseudo-Goldstone mode of a spontaneously broken Abelian Peccei-Quinn (PQ) symmetry. If the scale of PQ symmetry breaking occurs below the inflationary reheat temperature and the domain wall number is unity, then there is a unique axion mass that gives the observed dark matter (DM) abundance. Computing this mass has been the subject of intensive numerical simulations for decades since the mass prediction informs laboratory experiments. Axion strings develop below the PQ symmetry-breaking temperature, and as the string network evolves, it emits axions that go on to become the DM. A key ingredient in the axion mass prediction is the spectral index of axion radiation emitted by the axion strings. We compute this index in this Letter using the most precise and accurate large-scale simulations to date of the axion-string network leveraging adaptive mesh refinement to achieve the precision that would, otherwise, require a static lattice with 262,144 3 lattice sites. We find a scale-invariant axion radiation spectrum to within 1% precision and find no evidence that the spectral index of radiation evolves with time. Accounting for axion production from strings prior to the QCD phase transition leads us to predict that the axion mass should be approximately 𝑚 𝑎 ∈ (45, 65) μ ⁢eV. However, we provide preliminary evidence that axions are produced in greater quantities from the string-domain-wall network collapse during the QCD phase transition, potentially increasing the mass prediction to as much as 300 μ ⁢eV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables. I. Electric quadrupole moments and deformation

We report that converged results for 𝐸⁢2 observables are notoriously challenging to obtain in ab initio no-core configuration interaction approaches. Matrix elements of the 𝐸⁢2 operator are sensitive to the large-distance tails of the nuclear wave function, which converge slowly in an oscillator basis expansion. Similar convergence challenges beset ab initio prediction of the nuclear charge radius. However, we exploit systematic correlations between the calculated 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables to yield meaningful predictions for relations among these observables. In particular, we examine ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of the form 𝑄/𝑟 2 for nuclei throughout the 𝑝 shell. Meaningful predictions for electric quadrupole moments may then be made by calibrating to the ground-state charge radius, if experimentally known, or vice versa. Moreover, these dimensionless ratios provide ab initio insight into the nuclear quadrupole deformation.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables. II. Estimation of 𝐸⁢2 transition strengths by calibration to the charge radius

Converged results for 𝐸⁢2 observables are notoriously challenging to obtain in ab initio no-core configuration interaction approaches. Matrix elements of the 𝐸⁢2 operator are sensitive to the large-distance tails of the nuclear wave function, which converge slowly in an oscillator basis expansion. Similar convergence challenges beset ab initio prediction of the nuclear charge radius. However, we exploit systematic correlations between the calculated 𝐸⁢2 and radius observables to yield meaningful predictions for relations among these observables. In particular, we examine ab initio predictions for dimensionless ratios of the form 𝐵⁡(𝐸⁢2)/(𝑒 2 ⁢𝑟 4 ) for nuclei throughout the 𝑝 shell. Finally, meaningful predictions for 𝐸⁢2 transition strengths may then be made by calibrating to the ground-state charge radius if experimentally known.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Random forest prediction of crystal structure from electron diffraction patterns incorporating multiple scattering

Diffraction is the most common method to solve for unknown or partially known crystal structures. However, it remains a challenge to determine the crystal structure of a new material that may have nanoscale size or heterogeneities. Here, in this study, we train an architecture of hierarchical random forest models capable of predicting the crystal system, space group, and lattice parameters from one or more unknown two-dimensional electron diffraction patterns. Our initial model correctly identifies the crystal system of a simulated electron diffraction pattern from a 20-nm-thick specimen of arbitrary orientation 67% of the time. We achieve a topline accuracy of 79% when aggregating predictions from ten patterns of the same material but different zone axes. The space group and lattice predictions range from 70% to 90% accuracy and median errors of 0.01-0.5Å, respectively, for cubic, hexagonal, trigonal, and tetragonal crystal systems while being less reliable on orthorhombic and monoclinic systems. We apply this architecture to a four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy scan of gold nanoparticles, where it accurately predicts the crystal structure and lattice constants. These random forest models can be used to significantly accelerate the analysis of electron diffraction patterns, particularly in the case of unknown crystal structures. Additionally, due to the speed of inference, these models could be integrated into live transmission electron microscopy experiments, allowing real-Time labeling of a specimen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extended State Observer-Based Robust Model Predictive Velocity Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

This article proposes an extended state observer based robust model predictive velocity control to decrease system prediction error under parameter uncertainties for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). We develop a new PMSM model that consists of velocity and acceleration to lump the system information and an external disturbance into a disturbance. The extended state observer (ESO) is designed to estimate the velocity, acceleration, and disturbance. By estimating the state variables and disturbance using the ESO, the model predictive control (MPC) finds the optimal control input by predicting future system behavior. Additionally, the direct current controller is designed so that the direct current converges to zero. Because the proposed method is not designed based on the cascade structure from the viewpoint of velocity control, the optimization control for the velocity and currents can be defined. Thus, the proposed method is robust against external disturbances and parameter uncertainties owing to feedback linearization, state feedback, and ESO-based MPC using the acceleration PMSM model. The proposed control algorithm was experimentally verified and it showed improved velocity tracking performance compared with ESO-based MPC using the conventional PMSM model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

CORSAIR: A Framework for Human Mobility Prediction through Visit Characterization and Spatial Behavior Modeling

The rapid advancement of location acquisition technologies has led to the daily collection of vast amounts of mobile trajectory data, facilitating in-depth research on human mobility and enabling more accurate mobility prediction models. However, existing methodologies often fall short in capturing the intricate dynamics of human navigation and spatial behavior. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the multifaceted relationships between individuals and their environments, considering the diverse influences of personal preferences and experiences. Some places hold sentimental value and are visited frequently, while others serve as transient points of passage. To model these differences, we introduce CORSAIR, a novel visit characterization framework that leverages visitation patterns and dwell times to delineate an individual’s relationship with specific places. CORSAIR classifies visits into seven distinct types: casual, occasional, routine, special, anchor, important, and resettling. Also, we show that explicitly recognizing these distinct visit types and incorporating nuanced visit intents into mobility prediction models leads to a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy. This distinction allows for more precise modeling of the individual’s transitions, enhancing the personalization and relevance of location-based services. Our findings suggest that a deeper understanding of the complexities of individual-environment interactions is crucial for developing effective predictive tools in mobility research.

Amichi, Licia [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000177631394)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Band-Gap of Inorganic Materials Using Neuromorphic Graph Learning

Predicting properties of inorganic materials is a heavily researched topic, with several new prediction approaches emerging as competitors. One such competitor is graph neural networks, which leverage the structure of the graph to aid in the prediction process. In this work, we propose integration of neuromorphic computation into the graph neural network pipeline. We call this approach Neuromorphic Graph Learning (NGL). We utilize the NGL approach to leverage evolutionary algorithms and a novel Spike Pipeline for Raster Analysis (SPIRE) for the prediction of band gap in inorganic materials.

Mulet, Ian [University of Tennessee (UT)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

ORBIT: Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability

Earth system predictability is challenged by the complexity of environmental dynamics and the multitude of variables involved. Current AI foundation models, although advanced by leveraging large and heterogeneous data, are often constrained by their size and data integration, limiting their effectiveness in addressing the full range of Earth system prediction challenges. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability (ORBIT), an advanced vision transformer model that scales up to 113 billion parameters using a novel hybrid tensor-data orthogonal parallelism technique. As the largest model of its kind, ORBIT surpasses the current climate AI foundation model size by a thousandfold. Performance scaling tests conducted on the Frontier supercomputer have demonstrated that ORBIT achieves 684 petaFLOPS to 1.6 exaFLOPS sustained throughput, with scaling efficiency maintained at 41% to 85% across 49,152 AMD GPUs. These breakthroughs establish new advances in AI-driven climate modeling and demonstrate promise to significantly improve the Earth system predictability.

Wang, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2026

The nucleardatapy toolkit for simple access to experimental nuclear data, astrophysical observations, and theoretical predictions

Systematic comparisons across theoretical predictions for the properties of dense matter, nuclear physics data, and astrophysical observations (also called meta-analyses) are performed. Existing predictions for symmetric nuclear and neutron matter properties are considered, and they are shown in this paper as an illustration of the present knowledge. Asymmetric matter is constructed assuming the isospin asymmetry quadratic approximation. It is employed to predict the pressure at twice saturation energy-density based only on nuclear-physics constraints, and we find it compatible with the one from the gravitational-wave community. To make our meta-analysis transparent, updated in the future, and to publicly share our results, the Python toolkit nucleardatapy is described and released here. Hence, this paper accompanies nucleardatapy, which simplifies access to nuclear-physics data, including theoretical calculations, experimental measurements, and astrophysical observations. This Python toolkit is designed to easily provide data for: (i) predictions for uniform matter (from microscopic or phenomenological approaches); (ii) correlation among nuclear properties induced by experimental and theoretical constraints; (iii) measurements for finite nuclei (nuclear chart, charge radii, neutron skins or nuclear incompressibilities, etc.) and hypernuclei (single particle energies); and (iv) astrophysical observations. This toolkit provides data in a unified format for easy comparison and provides new meta-analysis tools. It will be continuously developed, and we expect contributions from the community in our endeavor.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of carbohydrate gene clusters obtained from in vitro fermentations as predictive biomarkers of prebiotic responses

Prebiotic fibers are non-digestible substrates that modulate the gut microbiome by promoting expansion of microbes having the genetic and physiological potential to utilize those molecules. Although several prebiotic substrates have been consistently shown to provide health benefits in human clinical trials, responder and non-responder phenotypes are often reported. These observations had led to interest in identifying, a priori, prebiotic responders and non-responders as a basis for personalized nutrition. In this study, we conducted in vitro fecal enrichments and applied shotgun metagenomics and machine learning tools to identify microbial gene signatures from adult subjects that could be used to predict prebiotic responders and non-responders. Using short chain fatty acids as a targeted response, we identified genetic features, consisting of carbohydrate active enzymes, transcription factors and sugar transporters, from metagenomic sequencing of in vitro fermentations for three prebiotic substrates: xylooligosacharides, fructooligosacharides, and inulin. A machine learning approach was then used to select substrate-specific gene signatures as predictive features. These features were found to be predictive for XOS responders with respect to SCFA production in an in vivo trial. Our results confirm the bifidogenic effect of commonly used prebiotic substrates along with inter-individual microbial responses towards these substrates. We successfully trained classifiers for the prediction of prebiotic responders towards XOS and inulin with robust accuracy (≥ AUC 0.9) and demonstrated its utility in a human feeding trial. Overall, the findings from this study highlight the practical implementation of pre-intervention targeted profiling of individual microbiomes to stratify responders and non-responders.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of laser beam spatial profiles in a high-energy laser facility by use of deep learning

We adapt the significant advances achieved recently in the field of generative artificial intelligence/machine-learning to laser performance modeling in multipass, high-energy laser systems with application to high-shot-rate facilities relevant to inertial fusion energy. Advantages of neural-network architectures include rapid prediction capability, data-driven processing, and the possibility to implement such architectures within future low-latency, low-power consumption photonic networks. Four models were investigated that differed in their generator loss functions and utilized the U-Net encoder/decoder architecture with either a reconstruction loss alone or combined with an adversarial network loss. We achieved inference times of 1.3 ms for a 256 × 256 pixel near-field beam with errors in predicted energy of the order of 1% over most of the energy range. It is shown that prediction errors are significantly reduced by ensemble averaging the models with different weight initializations. These results suggest that including the temporal dimension in such models may provide accurate, real-time spatiotemporal predictions of laser performance in high-shot-rate laser systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗