Results for “predictive simulation” — Page 13

DOE OSTI2026

Detection of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect and pairwise velocity with DESI DR1 galaxies and ACT DR6 and Planck CMB data

We present a 9.3⁢𝜎 detection of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect by combining a sample of 913,286 Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI DR1) catalog and coadded Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT DR6) and Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps. This represents the highest-significance pairwise kSZ measurement to date. The analysis uses three ACT CMB temperature maps: coadded 150 GHz, total frequency maps, and a component separated Internal Linear Combination (ILC) map, all of which cover 19,000 square degrees of the sky from Advanced ACTPol observations conducted between 2017 and 2022. Comparison of the results of these three maps serves as a consistency check for potential foreground contamination that may depend on the observation frequency. An estimate of the best-fit mass-averaged optical depth is obtained by comparing the pairwise kSZ curve with the linear theory prediction of the pairwise velocity under the best-fit Planck cosmology and is compared with predictions from simulations. This estimate serves as a reference point for future comparisons with thermal SZ–derived optical depth measurements for the same DESI cluster samples, which will be presented in a companion paper. Finally, we employ a machine learning approach, trained on simulations to estimate the optical depth for 456,803 DESI LRG-identified clusters within the simulated mass range ( ≳ 10 13 ⁢𝑀 ⊙ ). These are combined with the measured kSZ signal to infer the individual cluster peculiar velocities, providing the opportunity to constrain the behavior of gravity and the dark sector over a range of cosmic scales and epochs.

Gong, Yulin [Cornell University] (ORCID:0000000346↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring signatures in photon angular spectra to distinguish nonlinear Compton scattering models

The collision of a high-energy electron beam with a laser pulse may be used to study radiation reaction and nonlinear Compton scattering among many other processes in strong-field quantum electrodynamics. Predictions from simulation and theory for these interactions rely on a number of approximations and assumptions that have not been experimentally tested. Here, experimentally measurable signatures are identified that might be able to distinguish between radiation reaction models, i.e., classical or quantum, or between the local constant field and local monochromatic approximations used to calculate the properties of the nonlinear Compton process. These signatures are considered through Monte Carlo simulations of various experimental conditions that are relevant to today's laser facilities. Potential detection schemes for measuring the signatures are proposed. We find that single-photon counting of keV photons to resolve harmonics and scintillator-based detection of MeV photons may allow us to validate nonlinear Compton scattering models and radiation reaction models respectively. This will require electron beams with divergence angles less than 2 mrad and less than 20% energy spread.

Russell, Brandon K↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical dark energy from lattice quantum gravity

We study the behavior of the vacuum in Euclidean dynamical triangulations (EDT). Algorithmic improvements and better lattice spacing determinations allow us to test the properties of the emergent de Sitter geometries of our simulations to higher precision than previously possible. Although the agreement with de Sitter is good, the improved precision reveals deviations that can be interpreted as nontrivial vacuum dynamics, well described by a cosmological constant that runs with scale. The simulations show that the dominant running is quadratic and that the scale can be identified with the Hubble rate. Several key cross-checks support this picture, including consistent results across multiple lattice spacings and the fact that the null energy condition is not violated. The parameters of the running are fully determined by simulations, enabling predictions when extrapolated to the scales relevant for our Universe. This leads to a model for dark energy that is compatible with current observations, but which predicts deviations from the Standard Model of cosmology at the 𝒪⁡(10 −3 ) level in observables that could be tested with future improvements in precision measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Kilonova light-curve interpolation with neural networks

Kilonovae are the electromagnetic transients created by the radioactive decay of freshly synthesized elements in the environment surrounding a neutron star merger. To study the fundamental physics in these complex environments, kilonova modeling requires, in part, the use of radiative transfer simulations. The microphysics involved in these simulations results in high computational cost, prompting the use of emulators for parameter inference applications. Utilizing a training set of 22 248 high-fidelity simulations (composed of 412 unique ejecta parameter combinations evaluated at 54 viewing angles), we use a neural network to efficiently train on existing radiative transfer simulations and predict light curves for new parameters in a fast and computationally efficient manner. Our neural network can generate millions of new light curves in under a minute. We discuss our emulator's degree of off-sample reliability and parameter inference of the AT2017gfo observational data. Finally, we discuss tension introduced by multiband inference in the parameter inference results, particularly with regard to the neural network's recovery of viewing angle. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ferroelectric phase transition in group-IV monochalcogenides from an equivariant machine learned force field

Group-IV monochalcogenides are a class of layered ferroelectric semiconductors that have demonstrated spontaneous intrinsic polarization above room temperature. Here, in this study, we use the multi-atomic cluster expansion (MACE) machine learning architecture to train and test a force field capable of modeling the structural properties and second-order ferroelectric-to-paraelectric phase transition in a Group-IV monochalcogenide, GeSe. The model captures the double-well potential energy surface associated with the onset of macroscopic polarization in bulk GeSe within 12.5 meV/atom, as well as near-equilibrium properties like the phonon dispersion. The development of this quantitatively accurate force field enables long-time molecular dynamics simulations, which predict the critical temperature of the ferroelectric-to-paraelectric phase transition in bulk GeSe to be T c = 600 K. This study demonstrates the capabilities of equivariant force-fields to accurately describe phenomena associated with structural symmetry breaking.

ferroelectricity↗

DOE OSTI2026

FROMP-from-Monomer

This repository provides the 1D reaction-diffusion simulation engine for the multi-scale framework. It takes monomer-level kinetic and thermodynamic descriptors as inputs, approximated from quantum chemical calculations, to simulate and predict the macroscopic propagation behavior of Frontal Ring-Opening Metathesis Polymerization (FROMP). By solving a coupled 1D reaction-diffusion PDE system, this tool predicts front propagation speed, front temperature, and degree of conversion. The solver explicitly captures the three fundamental ROMP steps, initiator activation/inhibition, chain initiation, and propagation, while accounting for high-temperature cycloreversion as a competing pathway. The numerical implementation uses FEniCS to handle the coupled heat diffusion and reaction kinetics.

Chua, Lauren [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗

DOE OSTI2025

High resolution characterization of soil dissolved organic matter with FTICR-MS (Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry) from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014 and 2018)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization.This package contains Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (21 Tesla FTICR-MS) data measured in negative and positive ionization mode from water and methanol soil extracts. Soil samples were collected in 2014/06/03 and 2018/06/04 from 3 replicated paired plots that had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. The following files are included: (1) fticr_neg_h2oMeoh_data_raw.csv: raw data from combined water (H2O) and methanol (MeOH) extracts in negative ion mode, (2) fticr_neg_h2oMeoh_data_processed.csv: processed data from combined water (H2O) and methanol (MeOH) extracts in negative ion mode, (3) fticr_neg_metadata.csv: metadata for samples/measurements in negative ion mode, (4) fticr_pos_h2oMeoh_data_raw.csv: raw data from combined water (H2O) and methanol (MeOH) extracts in positive ion mode, (5) fticr_pos_h2oMeoh_data_processed.csv: processed data from combined water (H2O) and methanol (MeOH) extracts in positive ion mode, (6) fticr_pos_metadata.csv: metadata for samples/measurements in positive ion mode.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Metagenome-assembled genomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of LBNL (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) TES (Terrestrial Ecosystem Science) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization.Here, we present metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) for the bacterial and archaeal community from soil depth profiles collected from 2014 to 2021 from three paired control and warming plots. We collected soil samples across a range of depth profiles (spanning surface to 90 cm deep) from three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. 101 soil metagenomes were sequenced at JGI (Joint Genome Institute) and UCSF (University of California San Francisco) Center for Advanced Technology and can be found under the JGI (Joint Genome Institute) GOLD (Genomes Online Database) Sequencing project Gs0151586 and NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information) Projects PRJNA1225762 and PRJEB39497. Metagenomes were assembled using JGI (Joint Genome Institute) Metagenome Workflow (10.1128/mSystems.00804-20). For each metagenome, the assembled contigs were binned into genomes using 3 binning algorithms (cocacola, metabat, and maxbin) and the resulting bins were consolidated using dastool. The consolidated bins from all metagenomes were pooled, filtered by completeness (>50%) and contamination (<25%), and dereplicated at 99% ANI (average nucleotide identity) using dRep (https://github.com/MrOlm/drep).The dataset includes a zip file of 2321 MAG (Metagenome Assembled Genome) fasta files, the accession numbers for the underlying metagenomes, and a csv file with MAG (Metagenome Assembled Genome) quality metrics and taxonomic classification (GTDB -Genome Taxonomy Database-RS220). This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. A sample metadata file (samples.csv) that contains site information has also been included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Untargeted, tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) metaproteomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization. This package contains soil metaproteomics data in the context of site specific metagenomes from soil depth profiles in three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. These metaproteomes were collected in 2018 after 4.5 years of warming from five depth intervals (0-10 cm, 10-30 cm, 30-45 cm, 45-60 cm, 60-80 cm). For protein identification, the collected spectra were searched following a target-decoy search strategy against a database of metagenome predicted proteins (covering 96 samples from 2014 to 2021) representing the complete sequence diversity at the site. Data was searched with mass spectrometry database search tool (MS-GF+) using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Data Management System (DMS) Processing pipeline. The metagenomes are published as part of another data package. Raw metaproteomic data and the data products from MS-GF+ are deposited in the Mass Spectrometry Interactive Virtual Environment (MassIVE) database under accession no. MSV000097826. Here we present a dataset that includes spectral counts for the detected proteins across samples (EMSL50964_BrodieAllMAGs_Globals_SC.txt), the sequences of the detected proteins, and sample metadata file that contains site information for the soil metaproteome samples.

Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area↗

DOE OSTI2026

1H-NMR characterization of soil dissolved organic matter from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014 and 2018)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM (soil organic matter) decomposition and stabilization. This package contains metabolite data obtained through 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy on water-extracted soils. Soil samples were collected in 2014/06/03 and 2018/06/04 from 3 replicated paired plots that had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. The following files are included: (1) nmr_h2o_data_raw.csv: raw data, (2) nmr_h2o_data_processed.csv: computed compound concentrations and metadata, (3) nmr_h2o_compound_metadata.csv: compound metadata, (4) nmr_h2o_sample_metadata.csv: sample metadata

1H-NMR (nucleic magnetic resonance) spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Strategic Research and Development Insights for Digital Twins

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is pleased to provide our response to the NITRD RFI on Digital Twins Research and Development. Digital twins are virtual representations of physical systems, leveraging real-time data to simulate and predict behaviors. ORNL is advancing digital twin technology across various disciplines, including neutron scattering, networking, science ecosystems, supercomputing, secure facilities, mobility technologies, materials design and discovery, power systems, fusion reactors, biological sciences, and earth observation. These efforts aim to enhance scientific research, operational efficiency, and decision-making processes. ORNL facilities, such as the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), Grid-C, Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), and Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF), provide the infrastructure to develop and demonstrate these digital twin technologies. In this document, we lay out key challenges, research gaps, and future opportunities based on our experience with digital twins that aim to serve as useful contributions towards a National Digital Twins R&D Strategic Plan. In the remaining document, we address nine of the thirteen topic areas specified in the RFI.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Vibrational signatures of S Vacancies in monolayer tungsten disulfide

S vacancies in WS 2 affect material performance but a difficult to detect. In this work I use theoretical simulations to predict the vibrational frequencies associated with S vacancies in monolayer WS 2 . I report the phonon spectrum and band structure of the isolated monolayer and the frequencies that are introduced to the spectrum when a vacancy is created.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and Optimizing the Energy Benefits of Mass Timber Construction

The International Mass Timber Alliance (IMTA) is a global organization of industry leaders, engineers, scientists, and associations dedicated to advancing mass timber construction. Its mission is to generate and disseminate scientific data supporting the development of standardized construction and energy efficient practices that promote the adoption of mass timber worldwide. IMTA collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to leverage ORNL’s expertise in building envelope modeling and testing to evaluate how mass timber construction can reduce peak heating and cooling demand, lower overall energy use, and improve resilience during power outages. A previous study of 80 mass timber buildings in Finland found measured energy use up to 50% lower than predicted by simulation. This project aimed to validate and extend those findings for U.S. buildings through analytical modeling, laboratory testing, and full-scale building evaluations. The research focused on the thermal performance of low-embodied-energy wall assemblies, such as cross-laminated timber (CLT) panels and log walls, with particular attention to the effects of thermal inertia on indoor comfort and energy performance. While mass timber’s structural and fire-resistance properties are well documented, its whole-building thermal behavior has received limited attention. Field data, simulation results, and resilience testing from this study will inform future modeling practices, design guidelines, and construction practices by quantifying the unique thermal and demand-flexibility benefits of mass timber construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of local hybrid density functionals to treat self-interaction error and many-electron effects

The goal of this project was to improve density functional theory (DFT) for systems where conventional semilocal approximations are limited by self-interaction error (SIE) and by near-degeneracy or strong many-electron effects. While DFT remains the only broadly practical first-principles framework for large-scale materials simulations, its predictive accuracy is often challenged in situations involving stretched bonds, charge transfer, transition-metal chemistry, magnetic couplings, band gaps, and correlated electronic states. This project addressed these limitations by developing physically grounded and numerically robust exchange–correlation functionals that retain the efficiency of modern DFT while extending its predictive scope.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Applications in the Water Sector: A Review

As cities develop and resource demands rise, the water sector faces crucial challenges to deliver reliable, sustainable, and efficient services. Digital Twins (DTs), virtual replicas of physical systems, offer a promising tool to transform how we manage water infrastructure. Originally developed in the aerospace industry, DTs are now gaining traction in the water sector, enabling real-time monitoring, simulation, and predictive control of water and wastewater treatment, collection and distribution networks, and water reclamation and reuse systems. While still emerging in the water sector, DTs have shown potential to enhance operational efficiency, reduce environmental impacts, and support smarter, more resilient water management. This review study provides a comprehensive overview of current DT applications in the water sector, highlighting successful case studies, technical challenges, and knowledge gaps. It also explores how DTs can help bridge the water–energy nexus by optimizing resources utilized across interconnected systems. By synthesizing recent advances and identifying future research directions, this paper illustrates how DTs can play a central role in building sustainable, adaptive, and digitally-enabled water infrastructure.

digital twin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Astrometric Microlensing by Primordial Black Holes with the Roman Space Telescope

Abstract Primordial black holes (PBHs) could explain some fraction of dark matter and shed light on many areas of early-Universe physics. Despite over half a century of research interest, a PBH population has so far eluded detection. The most competitive constraints on the fraction of dark matter comprised of PBHs ( f DM ) in the (10 −9 –10) M ⊙ mass ranges come from photometric microlensing and bound f DM ≲ 10 −2 –10 −1 . With the advent of the Roman Space Telescope with its submilliarcsecond astrometric capabilities and its planned Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), detecting astrometric microlensing signatures will become routine. Compared with photometric microlensing, astrometric microlensing signals are sensitive to different lens masses–distance configurations and contain different information, making it a complimentary lensing probe. At submilliarcsecond astrometric precision, astrometric microlensing signals are typically detectable at larger lens–source separations than photometric signals, suggesting a microlensing detection channel of pure astrometric events. We use a Galactic simulation to predict the number of detectable microlensing events during the GBTDS via this pure astrometric microlensing channel. Assuming an absolute astrometric precision floor for bright stars of 0.1 mas for the GBTDS, we find that the number of detectable events peaks at ≈10 3 f DM for a population of 1 M ⊙ PBHs and tapers to ≈10 f DM and ≈100 f DM at 10 −4 M ⊙ and 10 3 M ⊙ , respectively. Accounting for the distinguishability of PBHs from stellar lenses, we conclude the GBTDS will be sensitive to a PBH population at f DM down to ≈10 −1 –10 −3 for (10 −1 –10 2 ) M ⊙ likely yielding novel PBH constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the Roman Grism Redshift Efficiency of Type Ia Supernova Host Galaxies for the High-latitude Time-domain Survey

The High-latitude Time-domain Survey (HLTDS) for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will discover thousands of high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) to set generation-defining cosmological constraints on dark energy. To construct the Roman SN Hubble diagram, a strategy to obtain redshifts must be determined. While the nominal HLTDS will use only the Roman prism, in this work, we consider the utility of the Roman grism observations from overlap with the High-latitude Wide-area Survey for SN Ia cosmology. We determine a galaxy grism redshift recovery rate by simulating dispersed grism images and measuring redshifts with the Grizli software, obtaining an H-band 50% redshift recovery at magnitude 20.61 and 90% recovery at magnitude 19.27. To estimate the total number of spectroscopic redshifts expected for Roman SN cosmology, we also consider a Roman prism SN redshift efficiency and a ground-based telescope redshift efficiency for host galaxies. We apply these redshift efficiencies to SN Ia catalog-level simulations and predict that ∼6800 SNe will have an SN or host spectroscopic redshift. Second, we evaluate the size of potential systematics related to modeling the grism redshift efficiency by considering the impact of additional dependences on stellar mass and host-galaxy color. We estimate the largest potential size of this systematic to be 0.0066 ± 0.002 and −0.0266 ± 0.0079, roughly 42.9% and 49.6% of the statistical uncertainty, for w 0 and w a , respectively. Lastly, we consider the effects of assuming different redshift sources on the optimization of the HLTDS survey strategy by measuring relative changes to the dark energy figure of merit.

Chen, Rebecca C. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United S↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Kinematically Hot, Extremely Metal-poor C-19 Stellar Stream in DESI DR2

Stellar streams are the result of a host galaxy’s gravitational potential tidally disrupting satellite dwarf galaxies and globular clusters (GCs), causing them to grow leading and trailing tidal tails. The C-19 stellar stream is an extremely metal-poor stellar population, showing chemical abundance patterns characteristic of a GC. However, its large velocity dispersion is difficult to reconcile with a conventional, purely baryonic, disrupting-GC progenitor. Current techniques for stream characterization are primarily applied to Gaia DR3, relying heavily on proper-motion measurements. Using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), which provides radial velocities and metallicities for over 10 million stars and reaches significantly fainter magnitudes than comparable surveys, we employ a mixture model approach to jointly characterize stream populations in proper motions, radial velocities, and metallicities against a Milky Way halo background. By applying this framework to the C-19 stellar stream, we identify a total of 47 spectroscopically confirmed member stars, of which 41 are newly identified and only 6 were previously reported in the literature. In this work, we measure a velocity dispersion of $7.8^{+1.5}_{-1.3}$km s −1 and a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] = $-3.36^{+0.12}_{-0.10}$. We further identify a novel “spur” feature within the stream. We conclude that our measurements are in line with previous works identifying C-19 as a “hot,” metal-poor stream. In forthcoming work, we will apply this approach to many more streams in the DESI footprint, enabling population-level comparisons with predictions from simulations.

Mohammed, Nasser [University of Toronto; Dunlap In↗