Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “probability of initiation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Converting sWeights to probabilities with density ratios

The use of machine learning approaches continues to have many benefits in experimental nuclear and particle physics. One common issue is generating training data which is sufficiently realistic to give reliable results. Here we advocate using real experimental data as the source of training data and demonstrate how one might subtract background contributions through the use of probabilistic weights which can be readily applied to training data. The sPlot formalism is a common tool used to isolate distributions from different sources. However, the negative sWeights produced by the sPlot technique can cause training problems and poor predictive power. This article demonstrates how density ratio estimation can be applied to convert sWeights to event probabilities, which we call drWeights. The drWeights can then be applied to produce the distributions of interest and are consistent with direct use of the sWeights. This article will also show how decision trees are particularly well suited to convert sWeights, with the benefit of fast prediction rates and adaptability to aspects of experimental data such as the data sample size and proportions of different event sources. We also show that a density ratio product approach in which the initial drWeights are reweighted by an additional converter gives substantially better results.

Glazier, Derek I. [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Uni↗

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Frustrated Coulombic and Cation Size Effects on Nanoscale Boehmite Aggregation: A Tumbler Small- and Ultra-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering Study

To better understand the effects of solution chemistry on particle aggregation in the complex legacy tank wastes at the Hanford (WA) and Savannah River (SC) sites, we have performed a series of tumbler small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering experiments on 20 wt % solid slurries of nanoparticulate aluminum oxyhydroxide (boehmite) with M 1+ nitrates of various concentrations and radii. In this study, the solutes consisted of H, Li, Na, K, and Rb nitrates at 10 –5 , 10 –3 , 10 –1 , 2, and 4 molal (m) concentrations, as well as in pure H 2 O. Synthetic boehmite nanoparticles were used with a size range from ~20 to 30 nm. Tumbler cells were used to keep the solids from settling. Although particles initially form individual rhombohedral platelets, once placed in solution, they quickly form well-bonded stacks, primary aggregates, up to ~1500 Å long, and a second level of aggregates whose concentration and structure vary as a function of cation type and concentration. Aggregation generally increases with increased solute concentration and with cation radius up to a concentration somewhat above 10 –1 m, at which point the trend reverses. Primary aggregates become more rodlike and larger. The Kirkwood-like reversal probably reflects a change from Derjaguin–Landau–Verwey–Overbeek (DLVO)/Debye behavior controlled by surface chemistry to a frustrated Coulombic system controlled by the solution structure. These data suggest that an understanding of the effects of salt concentration and chemistry on nanoparticle aggregate structures provides useful physical insights into the microscopic origin of slurry rheology in the Hanford and Savannah River legacy wastes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spatial and temporal control of lysis by the lambda holin

The infection cycle of phage λ terminates in lysis mediated by three types of lysis proteins, each disrupting a layer in the bacterial envelope: the S105 holin, the R endolysin, and the Rz/Rz1 spanin complex targeting the inner membrane, cell wall or peptidoglycan, and the outer membrane, respectively. Video microscopy has shown that in most infections, lysis occurs as a sudden, explosive event at a cell pole, such that the initial product is a less refractile ghost that retains rod-shaped morphology. Here, we investigate the molecular basis of polar lysis using time-lapse fluorescence microscopy. The results indicate that the holin determines the morphology of lysis by suddenly forming two-dimensional rafts at the poles about 100 s prior to lysis. Given the physiological and biochemical similarities between the lambda holin and other class I holins, dynamic redistribution and sudden concentration may be common features of holins, probably reflecting the fitness advantage of all-or-nothing lysis regulation

Microbiology↗

Product Innovation to Increase Low-to-Moderate-Income Customers' Adoption of Community Solar PV

This study aims to comprehensively analyze community solar project preferences for consumers and suppliers by conducting three distinct analyses. First we analyze the predictors of community solar contract adoption to understand how individual priorities affect the probability of adoption. Using an original data set of survey responses from potential community solar customers, we analyzed the predictors of contract adoption by employing a weighted logit model. We find that individuals who were previously familiar with community solar projects were significantly more likely to adopt than those who were not familiar. Secondly, a survey of community solar developers and financiers identified industry perceived barriers to community solar access and inclusion. Thirdly, we gathered payment performance information from community solar initiatives to measure how financial risks are perceived and how they interact with customer demographics. Our study is beneficial to the public by providing insights into the drivers and barriers of community solar adoption and sheds light on the importance of understanding individual priorities in designing effective community solar policies. The community solar industry has changed significantly since the beginning of this project. The industry continues to grow at a rapid rate, with an additional 7 gigawatts expected to come online between 2022 and 2027. With federal pressure to meet climate goals, as the harms of climate change continue to impact everybody, legislators are looking to community solar as a method to achieving their states energy policy goals. These new policies that push for low-to-moderate inclusion, coupled with the increase in community solar capacity illustrate a new era for the community solar industry. A number of policies have arisen in the last few months that push for more inclusive practices including the groundbreaking Solar for All program run by the EPA. The research created a “best practice” contract that can then be used, in conjunction with the manuscript and validated study, to pitch the industry on a more inclusive community solar product.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Plan for the Development and Application of a Risk Assessment Approach for Transportation Package Approval of a Transportable Nuclear Power Plant for Maritime Shipment (Rev. 1)

This plan proposes a strategy for licensing a transportable nuclear power plant, containing its unirradiated and irradiated fuel, as a transportation package for maritime transport using a probabilistic risk assessment framework in order to meet the regulatory requirements of 10 CFR Part 71. It is anticipated that initially, the deterministic transportation package licensing approach will be challenging due to the functional requirements of the transportable nuclear power plant. As such, a partial exemption request from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission coupled with applied compensatory measures are anticipated in support of providing equivalent safety to the public, worker, and environment. A plan is outlined as to how this would be demonstrated and a pathway is primarily outlined using the accompanying low accident rates which in turn support very low probabilities of release for a maritime application. Wherever possible, the proposed plan is supported by actual accident (casualty) data. Additional supporting information regarding a highway transportation probabilistic risk assessment in support of the Project Pele demonstration reactor that is currently under development is also referenced and discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Preparing angular momentum eigenstates using engineered quantum walks

Coupled angular-momentum eigenstates are widely used in atomic and nuclear physics calculations and are building blocks for spin networks and the Schur transform. To combine two angular momenta J 1 and J 2 , forming eigenstates of their total angular momentum J=J 1 +J 2 , we develop a quantum-walk scheme that does not require inputting O(j 3 ) nonzero Clebsch–Gordan (CG) coefficients classically. In fact, our scheme may be regarded as a unitary method for computing CG coefficients on quantum computers with a typical complexity of O⁡(j) and a worst-case complexity of O⁡(j 3 ). Equivalently, our scheme provides decompositions of the dense CG unitary into sparser unitary operations. Our scheme prepares angular-momentum eigenstates using a sequence of Hamiltonians to move an initial state deterministically to desired final states, which are usually highly entangled states in the computational basis. In contrast with usual quantum walks, whose Hamiltonians are prescribed, we engineer the Hamiltonians in su⁡(2)×su⁡(2), which are inspired by, but different from, Hamiltonians that govern magnetic resonances and dipole interactions. To achieve a deterministic preparation of both ket and bra states, we use projection and destructive interference to double pinch the quantum walks, such that each step is a unit-probability population transfer within a two-level system. We test our state preparation scheme on classical computers, reproducing tables of CG coefficients. Finally, we also implement small test problems on current quantum hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Role of non-gaussian quantum fluctuations in neutrino entanglement

The flavor evolution of neutrinos in environments with large neutrino number densities is an open problem at the nexus of astrophysics and neutrino flavor physics. Among the many unanswered questions pertaining to this problem, it remains to be determined whether neutrino-neutrino coherent scattering can give rise to nontrivial quantum entanglement among neutrinos, and whether this can affect the flavor evolution in a meaningful way. To gain further insight into this question, here we study a simple system of two interacting neutrino beams, and obtain the exact phase-space explored by this system using the Husimi quasi-probability distribution. We observe that the entanglement induced by the coupling leads to strong delocalization in phase-space with largely non-Gaussian quantum fluctuations. The link between the neutrino entanglement and quantum fluctuations is illustrated using the one- and two-neutrino entropy. In addition, we propose an approximate phase-space method to describe the interacting neutrinos problem, where the exact evolution is replaced by a set of independent mean-field evolutions with a statistical sampling of the initial conditions. The phase-space approach provides a simple and accurate method to describe the gross features of the neutrino entanglement problem. Applications are shown using time-independent and time-dependent Hamiltonians in the non-adiabatic regime.

Patwardhan, Amol↗

A conservative Galerkin solver for the quasilinear diffusion model in magnetized plasmas

We propose a conservative Galerkin scheme for the quasilinear model in three-dimensional momentum space and three-dimensional spectral space, with cylindrical symmetry. We construct an unconditionally conservative weak form and use a discretization that preserves conservation properties independent of the wave emission probability. The discrete operators, combined with a consistent quadrature rule, preserve all the conservation laws rigorously. The proposed scheme is quite general: it works for both relativistic and non-relativistic systems, for both magnetized and unmagnetized plasmas, and even for problems with time-dependent dispersion relations. We represent the particle distribution by continuous basis functions and use discontinuous basis functions for the wave spectral energy density, which enables the application of a positivity-preserving technique. We adopt the marching simplex algorithm, designed initially for computer graphics, for numerical integration on the resonance manifold. Furthermore, the numerical examples with a bump-on-tail initial configuration show how the unstable waves produce strong momentum space diffusion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Evaluation of Advanced Tools for Distributed Wind Turbine Performance Estimation

We evaluate various classes of distributed wind turbine performance tools across two sites in the United States. The class of tools ranges from the simple mass conservation model to the coupled Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model, all initiated by the WIND Toolkit data set. The resource estimation at the site is evaluated against measured data at the mast location. Taking a sample 100-kW wind turbine and constant losses, we evaluate Openwind, Continuum, and WindNinja tools and document annual energy production (AEP) and time-series statistics associated with the performance estimation of the wind turbine. Using a methodology that is consistent and unbiased across the three options currently available in the industry, we elaborate results at the two sample locations and discuss the probable sources of discrepancy in the AEP estimates. Two main sources of the discrepancy come from the input WIND Toolkit data and the spatial modeling techniques of the tools to capture atmospheric physics. The discussion includes additional values that these tools may bring into the energy assessment process to enhance the owners' confidence over the distributed wind power systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Coupling Thermal-Hydraulics with Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture Models

Because of the importance of maintaining the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in light-water reactors, significant effort has been devoted over the last several decades to understand the potential failure mechanisms, characterize how material properties evolve due to environmental conditions, and develop tools to assess the probability of fracture in aged RPVs during potential transient events. One important aspect of this problem that has not yet been fully addressed is the effects of nonuniform cooling on the RPV inner wall due to the way low-temperature water injected into the primary coolant system is distributed within the RPV during potential loss-of-coolant accident transients. Colder temperatures are expected in the regions near the inlets, causing a “cold-plume” effect. Rapid cooling of the RPV wall increases the likelihood of fracture initiation, and localized cooling due to cold-plume effects could potentially exacerbate this problem. The Grizzly code can perform a three-dimensional simulation of the RPV thermomechanical response as well as the probabilistic assessment of fracture for a population of pre-existing flaws, which is necessary to account for spatial variations in coolant temperature. This report documents a first effort to couple Grizzly RPV fracture models with computational fluid dynamics models performed using the Cardinal code, which allows for a realistic representation of the temperature distribution. This report demonstrates this coupling approach on two test cases: a simplified proof-of-concept scenario and a realistic small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In both cases, the effects of the spatially varying temperature are evident; although, because the small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario was far from challenging the RPV’s margins, it is still inconclusive how important cold-plume effects are in realistic accident scenarios. However, this effort represents an important step toward performing realistic analyses to determine to what extent spatially nonuniform cooling might affect RPV integrity under more aggressive accident scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantum Random Walk Simulator Using Ultrafast Optical Switches

Quantum random walk processes have many intriguing applications in high energy physics including the simulation of parton shower evolution. We will present the design and initial results of a fiber loop time-bin quantum walk architecture using the hardware platform already in operation at the Fermilab Quantum Network in which the state of the photon is defined by its time-of-arrival. The fiber loop consists of an unbalanced Mach-Zehnder interferometer implemented using an ultrafast electro-optical switch. The input switch controls the photon path within the interferometer, while the output switch will direct the photon back into the interferometer or to single photon detectors to measure the probability distribution of arrival times. Depending on which path the photon takes each pass through the loop, its wave function will interfere on these optical switches similar to quantum interference on a beam splitter. This work is an important step towards utilizing real-world advantages of quantum information protocols to solve problems in high energy physics.

Cameron, Andrew [Fermilab]↗

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

Simulations for x-ray imaging of wave-packet dynamics

Previous work on imaging wave-packet dynamics with x-ray scattering revealed that the scattering patterns deviate substantially from the notion of instantaneous momentum density of the wave packet. Here we show that scattering patterns can provide clear insights into the electron wave-packet dynamics if the final state of the scattered electron and the scattered photon momentum are determined simultaneously. The scattering probability is shown to be proportional to the modulus square of the Fourier transform of the instantaneous electronic spatial wave function weighted by the final state of the electron. Several cases for the choice of final state of the electron are explored. First, the case where the final state can be measured up to a given principal quantum number n and orbital angular momentum l are presented. Next, the case where the final states can only be determined up to a given energy is discussed. Lastly, the case of an initial wave packet consisting of a large amount of a known stationary state and a small amount of an unknown stationary state is examined. The scattering profile is used to determine the properties of the unknown state in the wave packet.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Shock-induced phase transitions and stacking fault formation in additively manufactured eutectic high-entropy alloy Ni 40 Co 20 Fe 10 Cr 10 Al 18 W 2

Ni 40 Co 20 Fe 10 Cr 10 Al 18 W 2 additively manufactured using laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is among the toughest as-built alloys reported and is a promising candidate for use in extreme environments. However, its behavior under multi-megabar pressure regimes remains unexplored. We used femtosecond in situ X-ray diffraction to investigate the shock response of LPBF Ni40Co20Fe10Cr10Al18W2 under laser-driven shock compression and release. Our results reveal that the initial dual-phase face-centered + body-centered structure transforms to a single face-centered phase over a wide pressure range of 84±10 to 277±55 GPa, followed by a transition to a single body-centered phase at 431±48 GPa. We establish the Hugoniot equation-of-state of LPBF Ni 40 Co 20 Fe 10 Cr 10 Al 18 W 2 and compare it to the benchmark alloy AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 , demonstrating the effects of W-doping and increased Al content. High stacking fault probabilities, close to those measured in Au and Ag, are observed upon compression. A portion of the stacking faults are annihilated upon release to ambient pressure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simple model to investigate jet quenching and correlated errors for centrality-dependent nuclear modification factors in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Here, we apply Bayesian techniques to compare a simple, empirical model for jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions to centrality-dependent jet R AA measured by ATLAS for Pb + Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. We find that the R AA values for central collisions are adequately described with a model for the mean p T -dependent jet energy loss using only two parameters. This model is extended by incorporating two-dimensional initial geometry information from TRENTo and compared to centrality-dependent R AA values. We find that the results are sensitive to the value of the jet-quenching formation time, τ ƒ , and that the optimal value of τ ƒ varies with the assumed path-length dependence of the energy loss. We construct a covariance error matrix for the data from the p T -dependent contributions to the ATLAS systematic errors and perform Bayesian calibrations for several different assumptions for the systematic error correlations. We show that the most-probable functions and $χ^2_d$ values are sensitive to assumptions made when fitting to correlated errors. This work demonstrates the utility of a simple model that can quickly demonstrate the constraining power of jet-quenching observables with corresponding uncertainties and guide future studies using more sophisticated models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development of risk mitigation guidance for sensor placement inside mechanically ventilated enclosures – Phase 1

Guidance on Sensor Placement was identified as the top research priority for hydrogen sensors at the 2018 HySafe Research Priority Workshop on hydrogen safety in the category Mitigation, Sensors, Hazard Prevention, and Risk Reduction. This paper discusses the initial steps (Phase 1) to develop such guidance for mechanically ventilated enclosures. This work was initiated as an international collaborative effort to respond to emerging market needs related to the design and deployment equipment for hydrogen infrastructure that is often installed in individual equipment cabinets or ventilated enclosures. The ultimate objective of this effort is to develop guidance for an optimal sensor placement such that, when integrated into a facility design and operation, will allow earlier detection at lower levels of incipient leaks, leading to significant hazard reduction. Reliable and consistent early warning of hydrogen leaks will allow for the risk mitigation by reducing or even eliminating the probability of escalation of small leaks into large and uncontrolled events. To address this issue, a study of a real-world mechanically ventilated enclosure containing GH2 equipment was conducted, where CFD modeling of the hydrogen dispersion (performed by AVT and UQTR, and independently by the JRC) was validated by the NREL Sensor laboratory using a Hydrogen Wide Area Monitor (HyWAM) consisting of a 10-point gas and temperature measurement analyzer. In the release test, helium was used as a hydrogen surrogate. Expansion of indoor releases to other larger facilities (including parking structures, vehicle maintenance facilities and potentially tunnels) and incorporation into QRA tools, such as HyRAM is planned for Phase 2. It is anticipated that results of this work will be used to inform national and international standards such as NFPA 2 Hydrogen Technologies Code, Canadian Hydrogen Installation Code (CHIC) and relevant ISO/TC 197 and CEN documents.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Bayesian reconstruction of anisotropic flow fluctuations at fixed impact parameter

The cumulants of the distribution of anisotropic flow are measured accurately in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC as a function of centrality classifiers (charged multiplicity and/or transverse energy). Using Bayesian inference, we reconstruct from these measurements the probability distribution of anisotropic flow in the ``theorists' frame'' where the impact parameter has a fixed magnitude and orientation, up to ∼70% centrality. The variation of flow fluctuations with impact parameter displays direct evidence of viscous damping, which is larger for higher Fourier harmonics, in line with expectations from hydrodynamics. We use intensive measures of non-Gaussian flow fluctuations, which have reduced dependence on centrality. Here, we infer from ATLAS data the magnitude of these intensive non-Gaussianities in each Fourier harmonic. They provide data-driven estimates of response coefficients to initial anisotropies, without resorting to any specific microscopic model of initial conditions. These estimates agree with viscous hydrodynamic calculations.

Bayesian methods↗