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At least 235 records · Page 13

A Composite Analysis of Snowfall Modes from Four Winter Seasons in Marquette, Michigan

Presented are four winter seasons of data from an enhanced precipitation instrument suite based at the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Marquette (MQT), Michigan (250–500 cm of annual snow accumulation). In 2014 the site was augmented with a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and a Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP). MRR observations are utilized to partition large-scale synoptically driven (deep)and surface-forced (shallow) snow events. Coincident PIP and NWS MQT meteorological surface observations illustrate different characteristics with respect to snow event category. Shallow snow events are often extremely shallow, with MRR-indicated precipitation heights of less than 1500 m above ground level. Large vertical reflectivity gradients indicate efficient particle growth, and increased boundary layer turbulence inferred from observations of spectral width implies increased aggregation in shallow snow events. Shallow snow events occur 2 times as often as deep events; however, both categories contribute approximately equally to estimated annual accumulation. PIP measurements reveal distinct regime-dependent snow microphysical differences, with shallow snow events having broader particle size distributions and comparatively fewer small particles and deep snow events having narrower particle size distributions and comparatively more small particles. In addition, coincident surface meteorological measurements indicate that most shallow snow events are associated with surface winds originating from the northwest (over Lake Superior), cold temperatures, and relatively high surface pressures, which are characteristics that are consistent with cold-air outbreaks. Deep snow events have meteorologically distinct conditions that are accordant with midlatitude cyclones and frontal structures, with mostly southwest surface winds, warmer temperatures approaching freezing, and lower surface pressures.

Claire Pettersen↗

Engineering handbook on the atmospheric environmental guidelines for use in wind turbine generator development

The guidelines are given in the form of design criteria relative to wind speed, wind shear, turbulence, wind direction, ice and snow loading, and other climatological parameters which include rain, hail, thermal effects, abrasive and corrosive effects, and humidity. This report is a presentation of design criteria in an engineering format which can be directly input to wind turbine generator design computations. Guidelines are also provided for developing specialized wind turbine generators or for designing wind turbine generators which are to be used in a special region of the United States.

Frost, W.↗

Measurements and Calculations of Microwave Radiance and Reflectivity for Storm-Associated Frozen Hydrometeors

During the TEFLUN-B (Texas-Florida under-flights for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)) field experiment of August-September, 1998, a number of ER-2 aircraft flights with a host of microwave instruments were conducted over many convective storms, including some hurricanes, in the coastal region of Florida and Texas. These instruments include MIR (Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer), AMPR (Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer), and EDOP (ER-2 Doppler Radar). EDOP is operated at the frequency of 9.7 GHz, while the AMPR and the MIR together give eleven channels of radiometric measurements in the frequency range of 10-340 GHz. The concurrent measurements from these instruments provide unique data sets for studying the details of the microphysics of hydrometeors. Preliminary examination of these data sets shows features that are generally well understood; i.e., radiometric measurements at frequencies <= 37 GHz mainly respond to rain, while those at frequencies >= 150 GHz, to snow and ice clouds above the freezing level. In this paper we present results of comparisons between these measurements and model calculations of brightness temperature and radar reflectivity. For simplicity the analysis is limited to the anvil region of the storms where only frozen hydrometeors are present. Various models of particle size distribution (e.g., Gunn-Marshall, Sekhon-Srivastava, and the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (CEPEX)) are examined in the calculations of brightness temperatures at the MIR frequencies and radar reflectivity at the EDOP frequency. Estimation of ice water path is made based on the best agreement between the measurements and calculations of brightness temperature and reflectivity. Problems associated with these analyses and measurement accuracy will be discussed.

Wang, James R.↗

CLIMATE LECTURE 3: Building a Climate Model

Climate, or the average of day-to-day weather, can be very different at various points on Earth. The local climate in the Arabian Desert is hot and dry, while that in the Amazon River basin is hot and humid with frequent rain. In upstate New York, the climate changes from being warm in the summer with sporadic rain to cold in the winter with sporadic snow. Hawaii, on the other hand, has a pleasant climate all year long. However, the day-to-day weather at all of these locations is much more variable. There can be dry days in the Amazon jungle, and rainy days in the Arabian Desert. There are some days in winter that are warmer than some days in summer. For further contrast, daylight in Antarctica lasts up to six months at a time with freezing cold day-in day-out. Can a climate model be built that can reproduce all of this complex behavior?

Russell, Gary↗

A New Method for Ice-Ice Aggregation in the Adaptive Habit Model

In this paper, a novel methodology for modeling ice-ice aggregation is presented. This methodology combines a modified hydrodynamic collection algorithm with bulk aggregate characteristic information from an offline simulator that collects ice particles, namely, the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator, and has been implemented into the Adaptive Habit Microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Aggregates, or snow, are formed via collection of cloud ice particles, where initial ice characteristics and the resulting geometry determine aggregate characteristics. Upon implementation, idealized squall-line simulations are performed to examine the new methodology in comparison with commonly used bulk microphysics schemes. It is found that the adaptive habit aggregation parameterization develops snow and reduces ice mass and number concentrations compared to other schemes. The development of aggregates through the new methodology cascades into other interesting effects, including enhancements in ice and snow growth, as well as homogeneous freezing. Further microphysical analyses reveal varying sensitivities, where snow processes are most sensitive to the new parameterization, followed by ice, then cloud, rain, and graupel processes. Further, the new scheme results in enhancements in surface precipitation due to the persistence of snow at lower altitudes. This persistence is a result of shape-dependent melting and sublimation, increasing the residence time. Moreover, these low-level enhancements are reflected in increases in radar reflectivity at the surface and its spatial distribution. Finally, the ability to predict snow shape and density allows for the simulation of polarimetric radar quantities, resulting in signature enhancements compared to schemes that do not consider spatial and temporal variations in snow shape and density.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol-deep convection interaction based on joint cell-thermal tracking in Large Eddy Simulations during the TRACER campaign

In cumulus clouds, aerosol concentrations control cloud droplet concentrations, modifying cloud radiative properties, precipitation processes, and cloud electrification. However, mechanisms of aerosol-deep convection interactions are not well understood due to complex cloud dynamics and microphysics. We investigate the interaction of aerosols with isolated deep convection using Large Eddy Simulations of two cases during the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) near Houston, Texas, using a joint cell-thermal tracking algorithm. Cumulus thermals are droplet generators, since supersaturation and droplet nucleation coincide with thermal centers, where the strongest updrafts occur. Primary ice crystal formation does not take place inside thermals, but at layers where previous thermals detrained moisture. As subsequent thermals containing supercooled droplets penetrate these layers, hail and graupel form at or near these thermals. Higher aerosol concentrations result in higher droplet concentrations that suppress drizzle, delay warm rain processes, and transport more moisture aloft. This increases snow and ice amount, as well as graupel and hail, leading to more lightning. Polluted thermals initiate at slightly higher altitudes, and are slightly larger and faster, suggesting a weak invigoration. We also find more thermals per cell, but fewer isolated cells, since convection is more aggregated and intense, especially near the end of the 24 h simulation. Non-linear mesoscale feedback likely triggered by temperature and moisture responses to aerosol-thermal interactions causes the aggregation. Time-lagged aerosol-reinitialization experiments show that the mesoscale response is the predominant forcing for the invigoration. These changes happen within one day, on a smaller scale than previously suggested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote profiling of lake ice using an S-band short-pulse radar aboard an all-terrain vehicle

The airborne short-pulse radar system described was developed to measure ice thickness in an attempt to extend the winter navigation system as a means of reducing coal and ore shipping costs. Experimental studies of the accuracy and limitations of the system are discussed, and measurements made at 25 sites are compared. The radar system was found to provide accurate lake ice thickness measurements that were not affected by snow cover or adverse weather conditions. Surface melting and rain, however, preclude measurements.

Cooper, D. W.↗

Scientific requirements for a Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) for EOS

The MODIS is an instrument planned for the sun-synchronous polar orbiting segment of the Space Station system. The radiometer is required to have 1 km resolution in terrestrial remote sensing applications. The monitoring program is targeted to last 10 yr in order to provide a sufficient database for discerning trends as opposed to natural variations. The study areas of interest include tropical deforestation, regrowth and areal distributions, acid rain effects on northern forests, desertification rates and locations, snow cover/albedo relationships and total biomass. MODIS will have 192 channels with 30 m spatial resolution and cover seven bands in the 3.5-12 microns interval for land viewing. Ocean studies will be carried out in 17 bands from 0.4-1.0 micron, and atmospheric scans will be performed over the land and ocean intervals at narrowband wavelengths (1.2 nm). Si detector arrays will be used and will be accompanied by an expected 600:1 SNR and produce data at a rate of 1.4-9.1 Mb/sec.

Barnes, W. L.↗

Snowfall in the Northern Great Lakes: Lessons Learned from a Multisensor Observatory

A multisensor snowfall observational suite has been deployed at the Marquette, Michigan, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (KMQT) since 2014. Micro Rain Radar (MRR; profiling radar), Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP; snow particle imager), and ancillary ground-based meteorological observations illustrate the unique capabilities of these combined instruments to document radar and concomitant microphysical properties associated with northern Great Lakes snowfall regimes. Lake-effect, lake-orographic, and transition event case studies are presented that illustrate the variety of snowfall events that occur at KMQT. Case studies and multiyear analyses reveal the ubiquity of snowfall produced by shallow events. These shallow snowfall features and their distinctive microphysical fingerprints are often difficult to discern with conventional remote sensing instruments, thus highlighting the scientific and potential operational value of MRR and PIP observations. The importance of near-surface lake-orographic snowfall enhancement processes in extreme snowfall events and regime-dependent snow particle microphysical variability controlled by regime and environmental factors are also highlighted.

Lake effects↗

Analysis of the 2019 Midwest US Flooding Using NASA Data

In the wake of Winter Storm Ulmer, an intense "bomb cyclone" that set preliminary low-pressure records, historic flooding occurred in 41 locations across the Midwest United States, causing many streams and rivers - including the Platte, Missouri, and Elkhorn Rivers - to rise to all-time record flood levels in Nebraska. Warm and dry conditions, along with 4-8 inches of snowfall, and over 1" of rain caused over 3-5" of storm water runoff from rapid melting.A rare confluence of circumstances produced the flooding, including extreme cold earlier in the winter that preserved a significant amount of snowfall, a thick layer of ice on waterways, and the large downpour of rain from Winter Storm Ulmer. Unusually warm air caused the snow and ice to rapidly melt, producing record amounts of runoff within a short period of time. This poster presents several data sets from NASA and the USGS (our partner agency) that can be used in analyzing floods and flood areas, including soil moisture, snowfall, floodwater areas, vicinity of urban areas and impervious surfaces, and proximity of strategic or critical infrastructure.

DAAC↗

Benefits of a 4th Ice Class in the Simulated Radar Reflectivities of Convective Systems Using a Bulk Microphysics Scheme

Numerous cloud microphysical schemes designed for cloud and mesoscale models are currently in use, ranging from simple bulk to multi-moment, multi-class to explicit bin schemes. This study details the benefits of adding a 4th ice class (hail) to an already improved 3-class ice bulk microphysics scheme developed for the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model based on Rutledge and Hobbs (1983,1984). Besides the addition and modification of several hail processes from Lin et al. (1983), further modifications were made to the 3-ice processes, including allowing greater ice super saturation and mitigating spurious evaporationsublimation in the saturation adjustment scheme, allowing graupelhail to become snow via vapor growth and hail to become graupel via riming, and the inclusion of a rain evaporation correction and vapor diffusivity factor. The improved 3-ice snowgraupel size-mapping schemes were adjusted to be more stable at higher mixing rations and to increase the aggregation effect for snow. A snow density mapping was also added. The new scheme was applied to an intense continental squall line and a weaker, loosely-organized continental case using three different hail intercepts. Peak simulated reflectivities agree well with radar for both the intense and weaker case and were better than earlier 3-ice versions when using a moderate and large intercept for hail, respectively. Simulated reflectivity distributions versus height were also improved versus radar in both cases compared to earlier 3-ice versions. The bin-based rain evaporation correction affected the squall line case more but did not change the overall agreement in reflectivity distributions.

bulk microphysics schemes↗

High-Resolution NU-WRF Simulations of a Deep Convective-Precipitation System During MC3E: Comparisons Between Goddard Microphysics Schemes and Observations - Part 1

The Goddard microphysics scheme was recently improved by adding a 4th ice class (frozen dropshail). This new 4ICE scheme was implemented and tested in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) for an intense continental squall line and a moderate,less-organized continental case. Simulated peak radar reflectivity profiles were improved both in intensity and shape for both cases as were the overall reflectivity probability distributions versus observations. In this study, the new Goddard 4ICE scheme is implemented into the regional-scale NASA Unified - Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) and tested on an intense mesoscale convective system that occurred during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The NU42WRF simulated radar reflectivities, rainfall intensities, and vertical and horizontal structure using the new 4ICE scheme agree as well as or significantly better with observations than when using previous versions of the Goddard 3ICE (graupel or hail) schemes. In the 4ICE scheme, the bin microphysics-based rain evaporation correction produces more erect convective cores, while modification of the unrealistic collection of ice by dry hail produces narrow and intense cores, allowing more slow-falling snow to be transported rearward. Together with a revised snow size mapping, the 4ICE scheme produces a more horizontally stratified trailing stratiform region with a broad, more coherent light rain area. In addition, the NU-WRF 4ICE simulated radar reflectivity distributions are consistent with and generally superior to those using the GCE due to the less restrictive open lateral boundaries

Regional Scale Model↗

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript evaluating the hydrologic responses of the Pacific Northwest watersheds to wildfires (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “Evaluating Post-fire Watershed Response to Varying Burn Severity and Precipitation Regimes Using Fully-distributed and Integrated Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Hydrology (Li et al. 2025). In this study, we employed the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model that couples surface flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes, to investigate post-fire hydrologic responses in a few selected watersheds with varying burn severity.The data package contains the required input data (meteorological forcing, Leaf Area Index, wildfire burn severities, etc.) to run the model, configuration files, the Jupyter notebooks in Python to pre-process and post-process data, the figures in the manuscript, and the modeling output files. The variables include watershed-averaged evapotranspiration, watershed-averaged surface/subsurface/canopy water content, and river discharge at watershed outlet.The data package contains a file-level metadata that lists and describes all the files contained in the data package (ATS_flmd.csv), a data dictionary file that defines columns headers across all csv files contained in the data package (ATS_dd.csv), a data package level readme file (the current file), and four zipped folders.The ‘data’ folder provides data needed to run the model in .h5, .i2s, .xyz, .shp, and .exo formats. The sub-folders are for each data types. The ‘model’ folder provides input files (.xml format) and essential model outputs. Each sub-folder provides the files from each simulated watershed. The ‘notebooks’ folder provides the Jupyter notebooks (.ipynb format) for pre- and post- processing model files, and for producing the figures in the manuscript. The ‘figures’ folder provides the figures associated with manuscript in .pdf and .png formats.The ‘model’ folder and the ‘data’ folder have been split into 5GB-large pieces using the Linux command ‘split -b 5120m model.zip model.zip.’ and ‘split -b 5120m data.zip data.zip.’, respectively. They can be merged back using the Linux command ‘cat model.zip.* > model.zip’ and ‘cat data.zip.* > data.zip’, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of precipitation on wind turbine performance

The effects of precipitation on wind turbine power output was analyzed. The tests were conducted on the two bladed Mod-0 horizontal axis wind turbine with three different rotor configurations. Experimental data from these tests are presented which clearly indicate that the performance of the Mod-0 wind turbine is affected by rain. Light rainfall degraded performance by as much as 20 percent while heavy rainfall degraded performance by as much as 30 percent. Snow mixed with drizzle degraded performance by as much as 36 percent at low windspeeds. Also presented are the results of an analysis to predict the effect of rain on wind turbine performance. This analysis used a blade element/momentum code with modified airfoil characteristics to account for the effect of rain and predicted a loss in performance of 31 percent in high winds with moderate rainfall rates. These predicted results agreed well with experimental data.

Corrigan, R. D.↗

Stratiform and Convective Rain Discrimination from Microwave Radiometer Observations

A criterion based on the SSM/I observations is developed to discriminate rain into convective and stratiform types. This criterion depends on the microwave polarization properties of the flat melting snow particles that fall slowly in the stratiform clouds. Utilizing this criterion and some spatial and temporal characteristics of hydrometeors in TOGA-COARE area revealed by ship borne radars, we have developed an algorithm to retrieve convective and stratiform rain rate from SSM/I data.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The photometric properties of natural snow and of snow-covered planets

Using the white light measurements of Knowles Middleton and Mungall (1952), the Minnaert constants, k and B sub zero, are derived for six types of snow surfaces for phase angles up to 80 deg. The conclusion is that snow is in general a quasi-Lambert scatterer (k = 1.04 to 1.35). Even in an extreme case of specular reflection (a 'glazed rain crust'), k is less than 2 at these phase angles. The range in k and B sub zero suggested by these data are then used to estimate some fundamental photometric parameters of smooth snow-covered planets: geometric albedos, phase integrals, Bond albedos, and phase coefficients.

Veverka, J.↗

TRMM Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager Observations of Convective and Stratiform Rain and Their Theoretical Implications

Theoretical models of radiative transfer are developed to simulate the 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer as a function of rain rate. These simulations are performed separately over regions of convective and stratiform rain. For the purpose of constructing vertical profiles of hydrometeors in these regions, guidance is taken from TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) observations, and from recent investigations of LDR and Z(sub DR) measurements made by land-based polarimetric radars. We find that for a given rain rate, the extinction in 85 GHz due to hydrometeors above the freezing level is relatively weak in convective regions compared to that in stratiform regions. The hydrometeor profile above the freezing level responsible for this weak extinction in convective regions is inferred, from LDR and Z(sub DR) observations and theoretical considerations, to contain two layers: 1) a layer of two km thickness with mixed phase particles, liquid drops and graupel, directly above the freezing level, and 2) a layer of graupel extending from the top of the mixed-phase layer to the cloud top. Strong extinction in the stratiform regions is inferred to result from slowly-falling, low-density ice aggregates (snow) above the freezing level. These theoretical results are consistent with T85 measured by TMI and the rain rate deduced from PR for convective and stratiform rain regions. On the basis of this study we infer that the accuracy of the rain rate sensed by TMI depends critically on the specification of the convective or stratiform nature of the rain.

Prabhakara, C.↗