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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Updated Oregon Floating Offshore Wind Cost Modeling [Slides]

The study provides heat maps showing updated estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for floating offshore wind energy off the coast of Oregon. This project builds on a 2019 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) floating offshore wind power cost study in Oregon (Musial et al. 2019) and a recent NREL California cost analysis (Beiter et al. 2020). Floating wind power cost data, modeling methodology, and resource data are updated and LCOE is estimated through 2032 using 2019 as a reference year. Comparisons are made to the previous offshore wind energy cost studies (Musial et al. 2019; Beiter et al. 2020). The study does not prioritize specific sites or make judgments about marine spatial planning viability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pavement condition and climatic data in southeast Texas: A dataset for evaluating flood impacts on pavement performance

Effective pavement maintenance is essential for economic stability, optimal network performance, and roadway safety. Achieving this requires thorough evaluation of pavement conditions, including structural integrity, surface roughness, and distress characteristics. Pavement performance indicators play a critical role in influencing vehicle safety and ride quality. Recent advances have emphasized the use of data-driven modeling to anticipate pavement behavior, with the goal of optimizing resource allocation and refining Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) strategies through accurate condition assessment. A foundational requirement for these modeling efforts is the availability of standardized, high-quality datasets that can support robust and reproducible infrastructure analysis. This data article presents a comprehensive dataset assembled to facilitate pavement performance prediction, with a geographic focus on Southeast Texas, particularly the flood-vulnerable area of Beaumont. The dataset encompasses pavement and traffic attributes, meteorological records, flood simulation outputs, ground deformation measurements, and topographic indices, enabling detailed examination of both load-associated and non-load-associated degradation mechanisms. Data preprocessing was performed using ArcGIS Pro, Microsoft Excel, and Python to ensure consistency and usability in data-driven modeling applications, including machine learning workflows. Key contributions of this dataset include its utility in analyzing the climatic and environmental factors affecting pavement conditions, identifying critical predictive features, and enabling in-depth correlation analysis across diverse variables. By filling existing gaps in input variable selection resources, this dataset supports the development of predictive tools for estimating future maintenance demand and enhancing the resilience of pavement networks in flood-impacted areas. The resource highlights the importance of standardized datasets for advancing pavement management practices and provides a robust foundation for ongoing infrastructure performance modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of a DER Management System in Riverside. Final report

The tasks in this project covered various aspects, including algorithm development, algorithm integration into a commercial Active Network Management (ANM) platform, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing in an industry-standard testing platform, pilot demonstration in Riverside, California, and also cost and benefit analysis. The DERMS platform in this project can host different algorithms developed on different platforms (e.g., MATLAB and Python) and it can interact with different hardware devices (e.g., different PV inverters, battery inverters, and different sensors). The DER control solution are based on an advanced model-free, layered, and clustered DER control paradigm. At the core of the DER control algorithms was the concept of Extremum Seeking (ES), which is a model-free probing-based control technique. The ES-based control algorithms were tested on major real-world inverters; both individually and in a cluster. It was shown that even legacy equipment (or when paired with a few additional advanced equipment) can support such advanced control. The monitoring algorithms utilize a heterogeneous set of legacy and advanced sensor measurements, such as behind-the-meter DER sensors, distribution-level Phase Measurement Units, distribution-substation Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA), and line current sensors, with their limited availability; in order to infer practical network conditions. Sensor data are utilized to achieve resource forecasting, phase identification, and distribution system state estimation. The technology that was developed and demonstrated in this project could be transformational to utilities, including the smaller municipal utilities such as in Riverside, which may not have the resources to deploy advanced distribution system and DERMS solutions in order to support high penetration of solar power integration. This project created a real-world prototype to provide utilities with an assessment of smart grid monitoring and control technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synchrophasors-based Master State Awareness Estimator for Cybersecurity in Power Grid: Testbed Implementation & Field Demonstration

The integration of distributed energy resources(DERs) and expansion of complex network in the distribution grid requires an advanced distributed state estimator to monitor the grid health at micro-level. The distribution state estimator will improve the situational awareness and resiliency of distributed power system. This paper proposes a synchrophasors-based master state awareness (MSA) estimator to enhance the cybersecurity in distribution grid by providing a real-time estimation of system operating states to control center operators. In this paper, the proposed MSA estimator utilizes only phasor measurements, bus magnitudes and angles, from phasor measurement units (PMUs),deployed in local substations, to estimate the system states and also detects data integrity attacks, such as load tripping attack that disconnects the load. To validate the proof of concept, we implement the proposed methodology in cyber-physical testbed environment at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Electric Grid Security Testbed. Further, to address the “valley of death” and support technology commercialization, field demonstration is also performed at the Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex(CITRC) at the INL. Our experimental results reveal a promising performance in detecting load tripping attack and providing an accurate situational awareness through an alert visualization dashboard in real-time

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grid Parameters and Voltage Estimation Approach Integrating Data-Driven Converter Model

With Measurements of grid voltage and current are essential for the optimal operation of the grid protection and control (P&C) systems. Grid parameters vary through time during the faults and especially in the converter interfaced resources (CIRs) rich power grid, and thus accurate estimation is critical to avoid the mis-operation of the P&C systems. In this paper, a moving horizon estimation (MHE) as an observer is devised and applied to estimate the grid line parameters and grid voltages for protection enhancement. Due to the proprietary and confidentiality of CIRs, the proposed approach uses the black-box model to represent their dynamics. Leveraging the easily accessible measurements of output current from the black-box model of CIR and voltage at the point of common coupling, the proposed method estimates the grid impedance and grid voltage during normal and faulty operating conditions. The performance shows that the optimization-based observer was able to closely observe the accurate states and parameters, which can be utilized by the P&C systems.

Subedi, Sunil↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Consensus-Based Approach for Active Power Control and Reserve Estimation in Distributed PV Systems: Preprint

With the increased adoption of distributed energy resources (DER), they are expected to contribute to power system reliability services and enhance power system stability. This paper presents a distributed consensus control approach for the real-time active power reserve estimation and power management in distributed PV (photovoltaic) systems. The proposed method estimates the cumulative active power reserve from numerous PV generators using only the sparse communication network for a DER aggregator to provide active power regulation services. The real-time active power reserve estimation using the proposed approach can be used by DER aggregators to manage curtailment in distributed PV systems to maintain stipulated reserves and further to provide power system frequency regulation. Using the proposed approach, the DER aggregator only requires measurements at the feeder substation and it does not require information from individual DER units, thereby improving system resiliency. The proposed distributed consensus control method is validated on IEEE 123 testbed using PSCAD simulations.

active power reserve↗
DOE OSTI2024

Derisking Superhot Geothermal Plays with Value of Information: Utilizing Play Fairway Analysis, Geophysics and Technoeconomics

This paper describes a methodology for evaluating how the play fairways analysis (e.g., favorability) can improve our chances of making geothermal development decisions. We make statistical resource assessments and couple them with technoeconomic analysis utilizing previous favorability work performed for the Newberry Volcano. We demonstrate how the favorability can be used in a decision analysis framework because the Newberry favorability also estimated an associated uncertainty. The specific decision considered is how large of a power plant to build, which is difficult given the uncertainty about the resource size. Our results focus on two resource types, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems, and they demonstrate how estimates of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates of the geothermal resource (denoted as the P10, P50, and P90, respectively) can be used in a decision analysis framework. Lastly, the value of information results explore using favorability with and without the magnetotelluric and gravity data from the Newberry Volcano. As expected, the favorability is more reliable, according to our methodology, at indicating the resource size when it includes the two geophysical models.

enhanced geothermal system↗
DOE OSTI2022

Online Distribution System State Estimation via Stochastic Gradient Algorithm

Distribution network operation is becoming more challenging because of the growing integration of intermittent and volatile distributed energy resources (DERs). This motivates the development of new distribution system state estimation (DSSE) paradigms that can operate at fast timescale based on real-time data stream of asynchronous measurements enabled by modern information and communications technology. To solve the real-time DSSE with asynchronous measurements effectively and accurately, this paper formulates a weighted least squares DSSE problem and proposes an online stochastic gradient algorithm to solve it. The performance of the proposed scheme is analytically guaranteed and is numerically corroborated with realistic data on IEEE 123-bus feeder.

distribution system state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ambient-Frequency-Data Based System-Level Inertia Estimation Using Physical Equation and its Practice on Hawaii Islands

Here, in this paper, a practical ambient-frequency-data-based inertia estimation method using a physical equation is proposed and validated by real measurement data from Hawaii island grids. With high renewable penetration, accurate inertia estimation is important and urgent. Ambient frequency oscillation always exists in power grids, so the proposed method has advantages of real-time inertia estimation and no need for additional disturbances. This paper first developed the physical equation for inertia estimation to offer a clear mechanism for easy implementation in practice. To apply the proposed method in actual grids, a practical method to extract the ambient frequency oscillation from frequency measurement is further proposed. The inertia estimation using the physical equation is validated by KIUC simulation data and HECO field data, in which error rates are around 2% and 8%, respectively. Practical inertia estimation is challenging due to the large amounts of resources contributing to the power grid's effective inertia, but the method provided in this paper can offer a novel way for practical inertia estimation, which can help renewable penetration to boost carbon-free grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

PRIME - A Software Toolkit for the Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics in a Bayesian Framework

PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the “real-time’” characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. We include examples using publicly available COVID-19 data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different datasets, i.e., 1) the unit generation dataset and 2) the system total inertia and headroom dataset, for the prediction of the frequency nadir. The training and testing datasets are generated through extensive generation scheduling simulations using Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MI-DAS) toolbox on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods perform well in predicting the nadir frequency of the system. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners yielding the best prediction accuracy in terms of four evaluation metrics.

data driven↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Inertia Estimation Using Actual Event Measurements: Florida Case

As inverter-based resources’ integration in power grids increases, their uneven distribution across the electrical network leads to the formation of local regions that are weakly coupled to the larger interconnection. This signifies the necessity of regional frequency dynamics investigation and analyzing various inertia metrics. This paper presents a practical methodology for estimating regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) using actual event recordings, which is then used to evaluate regional inertia. Florida (FL) is selected as the region of interest due to its distinct regional frequency dynamics and the rising levels of solar generation. We identify and analyze confirmed events from 2017 to 2024 that occurred in FL. The results indicate that FL contributes about 14% to the total inertia of the US Eastern Interconnection, which approximately matches its share of generation capacity. Results also highlight seasonal fluctuations in energy generation, which play a significant role in influencing inertia and thus the RoCoF levels. This emphasizes the importance of estimating regional inertia to enhance grid operations for a future that focuses on distributed generation.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗