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Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper.

Iannicca, Dennis C.↗

Assessment of the State of Communication Delay Research in Preparation for Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA’s mission-operations paradigm, established during Project Mercury and minimally evolving through the Apollo Program, Space Shuttle Program, and ISS missions, has primarily depended on real-time support from a ground team of experts. This ground team has served as the safety net for crewed spaceflight missions over the past 60 years, managing the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew. However, this operational paradigm, which has seen little change in its Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA), will face challenges during long-duration exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. Lunar missions may experience one-way communication latencies ranging from 3 to 14 seconds, while Mars missions will encounter up to a 44-minute round-trip latency at a maximum distance from Earth. Communication delays negatively impact the behavioral health and performance of individuals and crews operating across the multi-team space-to-ground system. Previous research indicates that increased isolation and the challenges posed by delayed communication lead to heightened stress, frustration, adverse behavioral symptoms, and reduced individual performance. NASA has investigated the nature and effectiveness of managing this shift in complex operations since early 2000, but additional research is necessary to assess the issues associated with communication latencies and identify effective countermeasures. This work aimed to examine the evidence from 20 years of research on comm delays. We systematically reviewed the past 20 years of communication delay literature, focusing on how this research aligns with relevant, high-priority needs in the HSIA, Team, and BMed Risks. This type of panoramic review has not been done since 2013; a current, aggregated picture of what has been studied and how is needed to inform additional studies and mitigation development. Additional perspectives were gained from interviews with the research participants, operations experts, and communication delay researchers. Results from this effort will help characterize the risk posed by communication latency for upcoming Artemis missions and point toward potential mitigations. The final results will be presented. For the literature review, we formed a search term seed set drawing from languages used in two papers representative of the previous state of knowledge and supplemented it with additional search terms. We conducted literature searches on Google Scholar, PubMed, and Web of Science and searched NASA project archives for output from NASA-sponsored research. This search yielded 150 papers, of which 48 were relevant. SME interviews provided perspective on key communication delay issues and concerns and what is being worked on to mitigate those issues. Preliminary results of the literature review have been presented. Final results to be presented include the results of the literature review and findings from the interviews.

literature review↗

Machine Learning for the Validation of Expert-Elicited Causal Risk Diagrams

Exposure to spaceflight poses risk to human health in complex ways. To help manage this risk, the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) maintains a set of causal diagrams that attempt to explain how spaceflight hazards generate health risks and lead to adverse outcomes both in-mission, immediately post-mission, and over the long term. These causal risk diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and can function as knowledge graphs of connected risks and outcomes. These DAGs have proven useful for communication, and, through network analysis, have allowed for the identification of structurally important factors in the risk network. However, the utility these DAGs provide is directly proportional to their verisimilitude, making assessment of this trait using empirical data – whether from actual human spaceflight or various spaceflight analogue exposures and model organisms – a high priority. In this research we explore the use of machine learning algorithms to learn DAG structure from empirical data as a means of evaluating human-elicited DAG structures. To do so, we test several different graph structure-learning algorithms on data concerning changes in the bones of rats and mice after exposure to either spaceflight or a spaceflight analogue. We explore potential methods for indexing the similarity between each algorithm’s output DAG with all the others and with that of the expert-elicited DAG. We discuss next steps in this ongoing line of research and open science initiatives underway to complete them.

directed acyclic graphs↗

A Simulation Base Investigation of High Latency Space Systems Operations

NASA's human space program has developed considerable experience with near Earth space operations. Although NASA has experience with deep space robotic missions, NASA has little substantive experience with human deep space operations. Even in the Apollo program, the missions lasted only a few weeks and the communication latencies were on the order of seconds. Human missions beyond the relatively close confines of the Earth-Moon system will involve missions with durations measured in months and communications latencies measured in minutes. To minimize crew risk and to maximize mission success, NASA needs to develop a better understanding of the implications of these types of mission durations and communication latencies on vehicle design, mission design and flight controller interaction with the crew. To begin to address these needs, NASA performed a study using a physics-based subsystem simulation to investigate the interactions between spacecraft crew and a ground-based mission control center for vehicle subsystem operations across long communication delays. The simulation, built with a subsystem modeling tool developed at NASA's Johnson Space Center, models the life support system of a Mars transit vehicle. The simulation contains models of the cabin atmosphere and pressure control system, electrical power system, drinking and waste water systems, internal and external thermal control systems, and crew metabolic functions. The simulation has three interfaces: 1) a real-time crew interface that can be use to monitor and control the vehicle subsystems; 2) a mission control center interface with data transport delays up to 15 minutes each way; 3) a real-time simulation test conductor interface that can be use to insert subsystem malfunctions and observe the interactions between the crew, ground, and simulated vehicle. The study was conducted at the 21st NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) mission between July 18th and Aug 3rd of year 2016. The NEEMO mission provides ideal conditions for this study with crew in the loop, an active control center, and real-time flow of high latency communications and data. NEEMO crew and ground support will work through procedures including activation of the transit vehicle power system, opening the hatch between the transit vehicle and a Mars ascent vehicle, transferring simulated crewmembers between vehicles, overcoming subsystem malfunctions, sending simulated crewmember on extra-vehicular activities, and other housekeeping activities. This study is enhancing the understanding of high latency operations and the advantages and disadvantages of different communication methods. It is also providing results that will help improve the design of simulation interfaces and inform the design of Mars transit vehicles.

Li, Zu Qun↗

Nuclear waste Educator's workshop: What and how do we teach about nuclear waste?

A workshop was held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on July 25th and 26th, 2022. The objective was to develop a blueprint for educating next-generation engineers and scientists about nuclear waste management and disposal, which requires knowledge from diverse disciplines, including nuclear, chemical, civil, environmental, and geological science and engineering. The 49 participants included university professors, researchers, industry experts, and government officials from different areas. First, we have developed a list of key fundamental knowledge on waste management and disposal across the nuclear fuel cycle. In addition, we discussed strategies on how to teach students with diverse backgrounds through innovative teaching strategies as well as how to attract students into this area. Through the workshop, we identified the critical needs to (1) develop community resources for nuclear waste education; (2) synthesize historical perspectives, including past contamination and the management of general hazardous waste; (3) emphasize a complete life-cycle perspective, including proper waste management as the key component for energy sustainability; (4) teach students how to communicate about the key facts and risks to technical and non-technical audiences; and (5) accelerate the use of the state-of-art-technologies to attract and retain a young workforce. Furthermore, we aim to build a diverse, inclusive community that supports students in developing their own narratives about nuclear waste, particularly in recognizing that antagonistic views have been important to improving safety and protecting public health and the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cybersecurity for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

As the U.S. electrifies the transportation sector, cyberattacks targeting vehicle charging could impact several critical infrastructure sectors including power systems, manufacturing, medical services, and agriculture. This is a growing area of concern as charging stations increase power delivery capabilities and must communicate to authorize charging, sequence the charging process, and manage load (grid operators, vehicles, OEM vendors, charging network operators, etc.). The research challenges are numerous and complicated because there are many end users, stakeholders, and software and equipment vendors interests involved. Poorly implemented electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), electric vehicle (EV), or grid operator communication systems could be a significant risk to EV adoption because the political, social, and financial impact of cyberattacks — or public perception of such — would ripple across the industry and produce lasting effects. Unfortunately, there is currently no comprehensive EVSE cybersecurity approach and limited best practices have been adopted by the EV/EVSE industry. There is an incomplete industry understanding of the attack surface, interconnected assets, and unsecured inter faces. Comprehensive cybersecurity recommendations founded on sound research are necessary to secure EV charging infrastructure. This project provided the power, security, and automotive industry with a strong technical basis for securing this infrastructure by developing threat models, determining technology gaps, and identifying or developing effective countermeasures. Specifically, the team created a cybersecurity threat model and performed a technical risk assessment of EVSE assets across multiple manufacturers and vendors, so that automotive, charging, and utility stakeholders could better protect customers, vehicles, and power systems in the face of new cyber threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design of a walking robot

Carnegie Mellon University's Autonomous Planetary Exploration Program (APEX) is currently building the Daedalus robot; a system capable of performing extended autonomous planetary exploration missions. Extended autonomy is an important capability because the continued exploration of the Moon, Mars and other solid bodies within the solar system will probably be carried out by autonomous robotic systems. There are a number of reasons for this - the most important of which are the high cost of placing a man in space, the high risk associated with human exploration and communication delays that make teleoperation infeasible. The Daedalus robot represents an evolutionary approach to robot mechanism design and software system architecture. Daedalus incorporates key features from a number of predecessor systems. Using previously proven technologies, the Apex project endeavors to encompass all of the capabilities necessary for robust planetary exploration. The Ambler, a six-legged walking machine was developed by CMU for demonstration of technologies required for planetary exploration. In its five years of life, the Ambler project brought major breakthroughs in various areas of robotic technology. Significant progress was made in: mechanism and control, by introducing a novel gait pattern (circulating gait) and use of orthogonal legs; perception, by developing sophisticated algorithms for map building; and planning, by developing and implementing the Task Control Architecture to coordinate tasks and control complex system functions. The APEX project is the successor of the Ambler project.

Whittaker, William↗

Identification of Safety Metrics for Airport Surface Operations

A large fraction of safety incidents occurs on the ground during airport surface operations. Although these incidents are mostly non-fatal with a few exceptions, they are high profile incidents that remain a source of concern for the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), major airlines, and other stakeholders of the National Airspace System (NAS). These incidents have historically been mitigated by implementing changes to regulations, policies, and procedures over time. This approach has minimized but not eliminated the risk of occurrences. It is thus important to develop integrated techniques to assess, model, and prevent these incidents by analyzing the risk and likelihood of occurrence and communicating results of the analysis to decision-making personnel who can mitigate and prevent incidents in real time. The research presented in this report builds on prior work of researchers at the NASA Ames Research Center who developed an automated framework, Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM), to enable monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. In the RTSM framework, hazards to flight are translated to safety metrics such as wake vortex encounters or loss of separation, that can be modeled and analyzed offline and also predicted and monitored in real time (online). The intent of this report is to integrate predictable incidents that occur during surface and ground operations into the safety portfolio of the RTSM project by (i) identifying suitable information sources from which ground incidents can be studied, (ii) developing safety metrics correlated with surface operations, and (iii) recommending suitable data sources that can be quantified and used for the computation of pertinent safety metrics.

ground operations↗

Identification of Safety Metrics for Airport Surface Operations

A large fraction of safety incidents occurs on the ground during airport surface operations. Although these incidents are mostly non-fatal with a few exceptions, they are high profile incidents that remain a source of concern for the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), major airlines, and other stakeholders of the National Airspace System (NAS). These incidents have historically been mitigated by implementing changes to regulations, policies, and procedures over time. This approach has minimized but not eliminated the risk of occurrence of safety incidents. It is thus important to develop integrated techniques to assess, model, and prevent these incidents by analyzing the risk and likelihood of occurrence and communicating results of the analysis to decision-making personnel who can mitigate and prevent incidents in real time. The work presented in this paper builds on a previously developed architecture for safety, Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM), to enable monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. In the RTSM framework, hazards to flight are translated to safety metrics such as wake vortex encounters or loss of separation, that can be modeled and analyzed offline and also predicted and monitored in real time (online). The intent of this paper is to integrate predictable incidents that occur during surface and ground operations into the safety portfolio of the RTSM project by (i) identifying suitable information sources from which ground incidents can be studied, (ii) developing safety metrics correlated with surface operations, and (iii) recommending suitable data sources that can be quantified and used for the computation of pertinent safety metrics.

safety↗

Effects of Communication Delay on Human Spaceflight Missions

Missions onboard the International Space Station rely on the real-time availability of a large ground team of system experts to command the vehicle, solve safety-critical problems, and guide the crew during complex operations. Also, in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), supplies can be sent and crews evacuated quite quickly if needed. Future missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit (BLEO) will not have this 24/7, real-time safety net as communication latency increases, resupply difficulty increases, and evacuation opportunities diminish. There are few, if any, terrestrial analogs for human spaceflight missions BLEO that reflect the conditions—including extreme environments, long mission durations, and small crew sizes – that make these missions so high risk. Studies on specific conditions, such as communication delays and asynchronous interactions, have been performed in NASA Earth-based analog missions and have found that communication delays can disrupt ground-crew interactions and adversely impact team performance. However, there are gaps and limitations in studies conducted to date, notably on human spacecraft system failure response and recovery, the impacts of shorter lunar-relevant communication delays on complex operations, and the effectiveness of countermeasures. The work presented here breaks down real anomalies that occurred on ISS and Apollo missions and creates example scenarios fort Lunar Surface and Mars missions to explore the impact of communication delays of varying length on onboard operations and mission outcomes. Our analyses indicate that short communication delays (e.g., seconds to a minute) adversely impact the ability for ground to provide real-time oversight and guidance and to catch quickly emerging problems in time. Longer communication delays (e.g., up to 40 minutes on Mars missions) call for a shift of responsibility for tactical operations from ground to crew; crew must make time-critical decisions independently and respond to time-critical vehicle anomalies to prevent consequences.

human-systems integration↗

Effects of Communication Delay on Human Spaceflight Missions

Missions onboard the International Space Station rely on the real-time availability of a large ground team of system experts to command the vehicle, solve safety-critical problems, and guide the crew during complex operations. Also, in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), supplies can be sent and crews evacuated quite quickly if needed. Future missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit (BLEO) will not have this 24/7, real-time safety net as communication latency increases, resupply difficulty increases, and evacuation opportunities diminish. There are few, if any, terrestrial analogs for human spaceflight missions BLEO that reflect the conditions—including extreme environments, long mission durations, and small crew sizes – that make these missions so high risk. Studies on specific conditions, such as communication delays and asynchronous interactions, have been performed in NASA Earth-based analog missions and have found that communication delays can disrupt ground-crew interactions and adversely impact team performance. However, there are gaps and limitations in studies conducted to date, notably on human spacecraft system failure response and recovery, the impacts of shorter lunar-relevant communication delays on complex operations, and the effectiveness of countermeasures. The work presented here breaks down real anomalies that occurred on ISS and Apollo missions and creates example scenarios fort Lunar Surface and Mars missions to explore the impact of communication delays of varying length on onboard operations and mission outcomes. Our analyses indicate that short communication delays (e.g., seconds to a minute) adversely impact the ability for ground to provide real-time oversight and guidance and to catch quickly emerging problems in time. Longer communication delays (e.g., up to 40 minutes on Mars missions) call for a shift of responsibility for tactical operations from ground to crew; crew must make time-critical decisions independently and respond to time-critical vehicle anomalies to prevent consequences.

human-systems integration↗

Assessing Solar Cybersecurity: Questions for States to Ask Electric Utilities

To help State Energy Officials and Public Utility Commissions engaging investor-and consumer-owned utilities and the solar industry in topical discussions about their cybersecurity practices and priorities in general, and for interconnected solar systems, specifically, this report outlines discussions prompts for these discussions. By using the questions in this tool states can explore aspects of utilities’ cybersecurity risk management programs that target solar devices, systems, and communication pathways. Such discussions help states identify cybersecurity gaps and assist in emergency response planning, as well as general risk awareness.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cooperative On-Ramp Merging with Time-Varying Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication Delay Compensation via a Model-Free Approach

Cooperative merging strategies enabled by vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication have shown promise in addressing congestion, fuel inefficiency, and collision risks. However, their performance can be severely degraded by time-varying and uncertain communication delays-an issue often overlooked in existing research, which primarily focuses on merging sequence determination and trajectory planning. Furthermore, practical considerations such as heterogeneous vehicle dynamics, varying road conditions, and real-time implementation complexities are frequently neglected. This paper presents a model-free, online planning framework for cooperative on-ramp merging of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), explicitly accounting for time-varying V2V communication delays. Without relying on detailed vehicle dynamics, the proposed method introduces a data-driven delay compensation scheme. A co-simulation platform integrating high-fidelity vehicle dynamics, traffic simulation (SUMO), and V2V communication within MATLAB/Simulink is developed to evaluate the proposed method. Simulation results demonstrate that unaddressed V2V communication delays significantly impair merging performance. In contrast, the proposed framework enhances intervehicle distance tracking and maintains low CO2 emissions and fuel consumption, under communication delay across different communication frequencies. In conclusion, its lightweight design also facilitates real-time implementation, making it well-suited for deployment in practical CAV systems.

Accounting↗

Guidelines for Successful Use and Communication of Instrument Heritage in Early Mission Development with a Focus on Spectrometers

Heritage is important for both cost and risk related issues and as such, it is heavily discussed in NASA proposal evaluations. If used and communicated efficiently, heritage can lower both the perception of risk and the associated costs. Definitions of heritage vary between engineering, cost, and scientific communities, but when applied appropriately, heritage provides a benefit to the proposed mission. By making an instrument at least once before, the cost of producing it again can be reduced. The time and effort needed to develop the instrument concept and test the product represent an expense that can be lowered through the use of a previously built and developed instrument. This same thought can be applied when using a flight spare or build-to-print model of the heritage instrument. The lowered perception of risk is a result of the confidence gained in the instrument through successful use in the target environment. This is extremely important in early mission development to the evaluation board. This analysis will use JPL-managed proposals from 2003 to 2011, including Discovery, New Frontiers, and Mars Scout missions. Through the examination of these proposals and their associated debriefs, a set of guidelines have been created for successful use and communication of instrument heritage in early mission development

specrtometers↗

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

The FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT): A Simple Tool to Improve Spatial Flood Probability Quantification and Communication

Understanding flood probabilities is essential to making sound decisions about flood-risk management. Many people rely on flood probability maps to inform decisions about purchasing flood insurance, buying or selling real-estate, flood-proofing a house, or managing floodplain development. Current flood probability maps typically use flood zones (for example the 1 in 100 or 1 in 500-year flood zones) to communicate flooding probabilities. However, this choice of communication format can miss important details and lead to biased risk assessments. Here we develop, test, and demonstrate the FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT). FLOPIT interpolates flood probabilities between water surface elevation to produce continuous flood-probability maps. FLOPIT uses water surface elevation inundation maps for at least two return periods and creates Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) as well as inundation maps for new return levels. Potential advantages of FLOPIT include being open-source, relatively easy to implement, capable of creating inundation maps from agencies other than FEMA, and applicable to locations where FEMA published flood inundation maps but not flood probability. Using publicly available data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk databases as well as state and national datasets, we produce continuous flood-probability maps at three example locations in the United States: Houston (TX), Muncy (PA), and Selinsgrove (PA). We find that the discrete flood zones generally communicate substantially lower flood probabilities than the continuous estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗