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At least 235 records · Page 13

Gamma Ray Spectrometry Assay Results of 242 Pu Samples at the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research Facility

Thirty individual items at the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) facility with accountable amounts of 242 Pu required assay by gamma ray spectrometry in order to establish their masses with reasonable precision. There were two phases to this measurement campaign: 1) a preliminary screening phase in which each item was measured for a short 600 second count time to establish the relative masses between similar or like items, and 2) a second phase in which groups of items were counted for a considerably longer time in order to establish the group mass of 242 Pu in a reasonable time frame. The data from the two phases were assessed in a manner that allowed the project team to assign a 242 Pu mass to each individual item in the inventory, with the exception of three column tubes that could not be measured individually because of radiological contamination issues. The project team performed technical analyses with the SNAP™ analysis routine, PC-FRAM plutonium isotopic routine, and the NEN-2 PeakEasy routine. When total measurement uncertainties are factored in, the individual mass quantities calculated for all samples are statistically equivalent to the expected mass of 0.88 grams of total plutonium per sample.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

D-Guaranteed Discrimination of Statistical Hypotheses: a Review of Results and Unsolved Problems

We compare two sequential d-guaranteed tests and an optimal d-guaranteed test based on a fixed number of observations with respect to the average number of observations within the most accepted practical applications of Bayesian probabilistic models. We consider the sequential “first skipping” test, the sequential locally efficient test based on the score statistic, and the test based on a fixed number of observations that minimizes the necessary sample size. We study various characteristics of these tests connected with the number of observations within three probabilistic models, namely, the normal (ϑ, σ{sup 2}) distribution of the observed random variable and the normal a priori distribution of ϑ with fixed σ{sup 2}; the exponential distribution with the intensity parameter ϑ and the a priori gamma distribution of ϑ; and the Bernoulli sampling with the success probability ϑ and the a priori beta distribution of ϑ. We discuss the connection of the d-posterior approach with the compound decision problem as applied to the analysis of data provided by microchips (when the false discovery rate, or FDR, for short, is treated as the d-risk of the first kind). We present the vast data on characteristics of the mentioned tests obtained by the method of mathematical modeling in several tables. We discuss unsolved problems of the d-guaranteed discrimination of hypotheses with the minimal number of observations and approaches to their solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Statistical Methods for Improved Evaluation of Environmental Sample Data quarterly FY18Q2

We will develop an enhanced statistical framework to evaluate environmental swipe samples collected at nuclear facilities with the goal of identifying anomalies associated with potential undeclared activities. Our approach will be based on Bayesian methodology and time series analysis. This overall framework should result in a more cost effective and operationally effective approach to environmental swipe sample analysis and interpretation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Populations of Carina. I. Decoding the Color–Magnitude Diagram

We investigate the color–magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [ α /Fe], for the cases when (i) [ α /Fe] is held constant and (ii) [ α /Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = −1.85, −1.5, −1.2, and ∼−1.15 and ages ∼13, 7, ∼3.5, and ∼1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [ α /Fe] = 0.1, constant [ α /Fe], and [ α /Fe] = 0.2, 0.1, −0.2, −0.2, variable [ α /Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1–3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.′1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ∼5%–10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Discovery of λ Bootis Stars: The Southern Survey I

The λ Boo stars are a class of chemically peculiar Population I A-type stars characterized by under-abundances of the refractory elements, but near-solar abundances of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur. There is some evidence that λ Boo stars have higher frequencies of “bright” debris disks than normal A-type stars. The discovery of four exoplanets orbiting HR 8799, a λ Boo star with a resolved debris disk, suggests that the λ Boo phenomenon may be related to the presence of a dynamic debris disk, perhaps perturbed by migrating planets. However, only 64 λ Boo stars are known, and those stars were discovered with different techniques, making it problematic to use that sample for statistical purposes, including determining the frequency of debris disks. The purpose of this paper is to derive a new sample of λ Boo stars using a technique that does not lead to biases with respect to the presence of infrared excesses. Through spectroscopic observations in the southern hemisphere, we have discovered 33 λ Boo stars and have confirmed 12 others. As a step toward determining the proportion of λ Boo stars with infrared excesses, we have used WISE data to examine the infrared properties of this sample out to 22 μ m. On this basis, we cannot conclude that λ Boo stars have a greater tendency than normal A-type stars to show infrared excesses. However, observing this sample at longer wavelengths may change that conclusion, as many λ Boo debris disks are cool and do not radiate strongly at 22 μ m.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

The orbital nature of 81 ellipsoidal red giant binaries in the large magellanic cloud

In this paper, we collect a sample of 81 ellipsoidal red giant binaries in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), and we study their orbital natures individually and statistically. The sample contains 59 systems with circular orbits and 22 systems with eccentric orbits. We derive orbital solutions using the 2010 version of the Wilson–Devinney code. The sample is selection-bias corrected, and the orbital parameter distributions are compared to model predictions for the LMC and to observations in the solar vicinity. The masses of the red giant primaries are found to range from about 0.6 to 9 M{sub ⊙} with a peak at around 1.5 M{sub ⊙}, in agreement with studies of the star formation history of the LMC, which find a burst of star formation beginning around 4 Gyr ago. The observed distribution of mass ratios q=m{sub 2}/m{sub 1} is more consistent with the flat q distribution derived for the solar vicinity by Raghavan et al. than it is with the solar vicinity q distribution derived by Duquennoy and Mayor. There is no evidence for an excess number of systems with equal mass components. We find that about 20% of the ellipsoidal binaries have eccentric orbits, twice the fraction estimated by Soszynski et al. Our eccentricity evolution test shows that the existence of eccentric ellipsoidal red giant binaries on the upper parts of the red giant branch (RGB) can only be explained if tidal circularization rates are ∼1/100 the rates given by the usual theory of tidal dissipation in convective stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Local measurement of bulk thermal diffusivity using photothermal radiometry

Here, an experimental methodology using photothermal radiometry is developed for the accurate measurement of bulk thermal diffusivity of nuclear fuels and materials irradiated to high doses. Under these conditions, nuclear fuels, such as uranium oxide, and moderator materials, such as graphite, become friable, which requires characterization techniques that can accommodate irregularly shaped fragments. Photothermal radiometry, a good candidate for this application, involves locally heating a sample by using a laser and measuring the temperature field by monitoring blackbody radiation. The interaction volume for this study, less than a millimeter, is carefully chosen to sample a statistically significant number of large-scale structural features, such as pores and gas filled bubbles, and is small enough that the sample fragments can be treated as a thermal half-space. The thermal diffusivity standards considered in this study cover a range of thermal diffusivities representative of both fresh and spent nuclear fuels. We also consider a sample having a porous microstructure representative of large-scale structures found in materials irradiated to high doses. Our measurement methodology circumvents complex thermal wave models that address optical diffraction, nonlinear transfer function associated with blackbody radiation, and finite sample size effects. Consequently, the large measurement uncertainty associated with modeling these effects can be avoided. While the emphasis here is on nuclear fuels and materials, this measurement approach is well suited to measure thermal transport in a variety of technologically important materials associated with advanced synthesis techniques. Examples range from small, exotic single crystals grown using hydrothermal growth techniques to additively manufactured components having complex geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ASSESSING THE SIGNIFICANCE OF APPARENT CORRELATIONS BETWEEN RADIO AND GAMMA-RAY BLAZAR FLUXES

Whether or not a correlation exists between the radio and gamma-ray flux densities of blazars is a long-standing question, and one that is difficult to answer confidently because of various observational biases, which may either dilute or apparently enhance any intrinsic correlation between radio and gamma-ray luminosities. We introduce a novel method of data randomization to evaluate quantitatively the effect of these biases and to assess the intrinsic significance of an apparent correlation between radio and gamma-ray flux densities of blazars. The novelty of the method lies in a combination of data randomization in luminosity space (to ensure that the randomized data are intrinsically, and not just apparently, uncorrelated) and significance assessment in flux space (to explicitly avoid Malmquist bias and automatically account for the limited dynamical range in both frequencies). The method is applicable even to small samples that are not selected with strict statistical criteria. For larger samples we describe a variation of the method in which the sample is split in redshift bins, and the randomization is applied in each bin individually; this variation is designed to yield the equivalent to luminosity-function sampling of the underlying population in the limit of very large, statistically complete samples. We show that for a smaller number of redshift bins, the method yields a worse significance, and in this way it is conservative: although it may fail to confirm an existing intrinsic correlation in a small sample that cannot be split into many redshift bins, it will not assign a stronger, artificially enhanced significance. We demonstrate how our test performs as a function of number of sources, strength of correlation, and number of redshift bins used, and we show that while our test is robust against common-distance biases and associated false positives for uncorrelated data, it retains the power of other methods in rejecting the null hypothesis of no correlation for correlated data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cluster cosmology without cluster finding

ABSTRACT We propose that observations of supermassive galaxies contain cosmological statistical constraining power similar to conventional cluster cosmology, and we provide promising indications that the associated systematic errors are comparably easier to control. We consider a fiducial spectroscopic and stellar mass complete sample of galaxies drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and forecast how constraints on Ωm–σ8 from this sample will compare with those from number counts of clusters based on richness λ. At fixed number density, we find that massive galaxies offer similar constraints to galaxy clusters. However, a mass-complete galaxy sample from DESI has the potential to probe lower halo masses than standard optical cluster samples (which are typically limited to λ ≳ 20 and Mhalo ≳ 1013.5 M⊙ h−1); additionally, it is straightforward to cleanly measure projected galaxy clustering wp for such a DESI sample, which we show can substantially improve the constraining power on Ωm. We also compare the constraining power of M*-limited samples to those from larger but mass-incomplete samples [e.g. the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) sample]; relative to a lower number density M*-limited samples, we find that a BGS-like sample improves statistical constraints by 60 per cent for Ωm and 40 per cent for σ8, but this uses small-scale information that will be harder to model for BGS. Our initial assessment of the systematics associated with supermassive galaxy cosmology yields promising results. The proposed samples have a ∼10 per cent satellite fraction, but we show that cosmological constraints may be robust to the impact of satellites. These findings motivate future work to realize the potential of supermassive galaxies to probe lower halo masses than richness-based clusters and to potentially avoid persistent systematics associated with optical cluster finding.

(cosmology): large-scale structure of Universe↗

The Feynman-Y Statistic in Relation to Shift-Register Neutron Coincidence Counting: Precision and Dead Time

The Feynman-Y statistic is a type of autocorrelation analysis. It is defined as the excess variance-to-mean ratio, Y = VMR - 1, of the number count distribution formed by sampling a pulse train using a series of non-overlapping gates. It is a measure of the degree of correlation present on the pulse train with Y = 0 for Poisson data. In the context of neutron coincidence counting we show that the same information can be obtained from the accidentals histogram acquired using the multiplicity shift-register method, which is currently the common autocorrelation technique applied in nuclear safeguards. In the case of multiplicity shift register analysis however, overlapping gates, either triggered by the incoming pulse stream or by a periodic clock, are used. The overlap introduces additional covariance but does not alter the expectation values. In this paper we discuss, for a particular data set, the relative merit of the Feynman and shift-register methods in terms of both precision and dead time correction. Traditionally the Feynman approach is applied with a relatively long gate width compared to the dieaway time. The main reason for this is so that the gate utilization factor can be taken as unity rather than being treated as a system parameter to be determined at characterization/calibration. But because the random trigger interval gate utilization factor is slow to saturate this procedure requires a gate width many times the effective 1/e dieaway time. In the traditional approach this limits the number of gates that can be fitted into a given assay duration. We empirically show that much shorter gates, similar in width to those used in traditional shift register analysis can be used. Because the way in which the correlated information present on the pulse train is extracted is different for the moments based method of Feynman and the various shift register based approaches, the dead time losses are manifested differently for these two approaches. The resulting estimates for the dead time corrected first and second order reduced factorial moments should be independent of the method however and this allows the respective dead time formalism to be checked. We discuss how to make dead time corrections in both the shift register and the Feynman approaches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Scale Mixtures of Frechet Distributions as Asymptotic Approximations of Extreme Precipitation

This paper is a further development of the results of [20] where, based on the negative binomial model for the duration of wet periods measured in days [16], an asymptotic approximation was proposed for the distribution of the maximum daily precipitation volume within a wet period. This approximation has the form of a scale mixture of the Fr´echet distribution with the gamma mixing distribution and coincides with the distribution of a positive power of a random variable having the Snedecor–Fisher distribution. Here we extend this result to the mth extremes, m ∈ ℕ, and sample quantiles. The proof of this result is based on the representation of the negative binomial distribution as a mixed geometric (and hence, mixed Poisson) distribution [17] and limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples with random sizes having mixed Poisson distributions [10]. Some analytic properties of the obtained limit distribution are described. In particular, it is demonstrated that under certain conditions the limit distribution of the maximum precipitation is mixed exponential and hence, is infinitely divisible. It is shown that under the same conditions this limit distribution can be represented as a scale mixture of stable or Weibull or Pareto or folded normal laws. The corresponding product representations for the limit random variable can be used for its computer simulation. The results of fitting this distribution to real data are presented illustrating high adequacy of the proposed model. It is also shown that the limit distribution of sample quantiles is the well-known Student distribution. Several methods are proposed for the estimation of the parameters of the asymptotic distributions. The obtained mixture representations for the limit laws and the corresponding asymptotic approximations provide better insight into the nature of mixed probability (“Bayesian”) models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Composite Lags at z ≤ 1

We present composite broad-line region (BLR) reverberation mapping lag measurements for H α , H β , He ii λ 4686, and Mg ii for a sample of 144, z ≲ 1 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping (SDSS-RM) project. Using only the 32-epoch spectroscopic light curves in the first six-month season of SDSS-RM observations, we compile correlation function measurements for individual objects and then coadd them to allow the measurement of the average lags for our sample at mean redshifts of 0.4 (for H α ) and ∼0.65 (for the other lines). At similar quasar luminosities and redshifts, the sample-averaged lag decreases in the order of Mg ii, H α , H β , and He ii. This decrease in lags is accompanied by an increase in the mean line width of the four lines, and is roughly consistent with the virialized motion for BLR gas in photoionization equilibrium. These are among the first RM measurements of stratified BLR structure at z > 0.3. Dividing our sample by luminosity, H α shows clear evidence of increasing lags with luminosity, consistent with the expectation from the measured BLR size–luminosity relation based on H β . The other three lines do not show a clear luminosity trend in their average lags due to the limited dynamic range of luminosity probed and the poor average correlation signals in the divided samples, a situation that will be improved with the incorporation of additional photometric and spectroscopic data from SDSS-RM. We discuss the utility and caveats of composite lag measurements for large statistical quasar samples with reverberation mapping data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

EFFECTS OF SIZE AND GEOMETRY ON THE EQUIBIAXIAL FLEXURAL TEST OF FINE GRAINED NUCLEAR GRAPHITE

Reduction of specimen size is an essential requirement for neutron irradiation effect studies of materials since space in nuclear reactors for those studies are often very limited and costly. Reducing the specimen size can dramatically reduce the cost of these studies, the irradiation exposure to personnel involved in post irradiation examination and the volume of radioactive waste. In this study, 4 specimen sizes were systematically varied to examine the size effect on the equibiaxial flexure test of fine grain nuclear graphite in non-irradiated conditions at room temperature. A statistically significant sample population of 30 was used for each specimen geometry or dimension. The results showed that the round shaped samples followed weibull distribution with Weibull modulus of 25 to 35. The average strength followed the trend of the weakest link theory. The 2 sizes of square shaped samples had Weibull modulus of 29 and 40. Data from round and square samples agree with others reasonably and collectively follow the Weibull scaling theory. It is concluded that the equibiaxial flexural test using adequate population of small specimens provides useful and reliable information on the statistical strength properties for fine-grained nuclear graphite materials.

Shih, Chunghao↗

Accurate predictions from small boxes: variance suppression via the Zel'dovich approximation

Simulations have become an indispensable tool for accurate modelling of observables measured in galaxy surveys, but can be expensive if very large dynamic range in scale is required. We describe how to combine Lagrangian perturbation theory models with N-body simulations to reduce the effects of finite computational volume in the prediction of ensemble average properties in the simulations within the context of control variates. In particular we use the fact that Zel'dovich displacements, computed during initial condition generation for any simulation, correlate strongly with the final density field. Since all the correlators of biased tracers can be computed with arbitrary precision for these displacements, pairing the Zel'dovich `simulation' with the N-body realization allows hundredfold reductions in sample variance for power spectrum or correlation function estimation. Additionally, Zel'dovich control variates can accurately extend matter or tracer field emulators to larger scales than previously possible, as well as improving measurements of statistics in simulations which are inherently limited to small volumes, such as hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy formation and reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dependence of the Electron Beam Energy and Types of Surface to Determine EBSD Indexing Reliability in Yttria-Stabilized Zirconia

Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) is a powerful technique for the surface microstructure analysis. EBSD analysis of cubic yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) in two and three dimensions (2-D, 3-D) is demonstrated using sequential slicing from a focused ion beam (FIB) followed by EBSD mapping to represent 3-D reconstructed high density grain structure with random orientation. The statistics related to accuracy of EBSD band detection shows that probability of accurate grain orientation detection increased significantly when the electron beam energy is increased from 10 kV to 30 kV. As a result of better sampling with increased interaction volume, a disparity between local and average grain orientation angle also exhibited the dependence of the electron beam energy to determine the accuracy of grain orientation. To study the accuracy and quality of EBSD band detection as a function of surface roughness and over layer formation, rapid EBSD measurement tests are performed on (a) YSZ surfaces ion-polished at ion beam energies of 65 nA at 30 kV and 1 nA at 30 kV and (b) carbon coated versus uncoated YSZ surfaces. The EBSD results at both 10 kV and 30 kV electron beam energies indicate that EBSD band detection accuracy is negatively affected by surface roughness and amorphous over layer formation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Chemical composition of material extractives influences microbial growth and dynamics on wetted wood materials

The impact of material chemical composition on microbial growth on building materials remains relatively poorly understood. We investigate the influence of the chemical composition of material extractives on microbial growth and community dynamics on 30 different wood species that were naturally inoculated, wetted, and held at high humidity for several weeks. Microbial growth was assessed by visual assessment and molecular sequencing. Unwetted material powders and microbial swab samples were analyzed using reverse phase liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Different wood species demonstrated varying susceptibility to microbial growth after 3 weeks and visible coverage and fungal qPCR concentrations were correlated (R 2 = 0.55). Aspergillaceae was most abundant across all samples; Meruliaceae was more prevalent on 8 materials with the highest visible microbial growth. A larger and more diverse set of compounds was detected from the wood shavings compared to the microbial swabs, indicating a complex and heterogeneous chemical composition within wood types. Several individual compounds putatively identified in wood samples showed statistically significant, near-monotonic associations with microbial growth, including C 11 H 16 O 4 , C 18 H 34 O 4 , and C 6 H 15 NO. A pilot experiment confirmed the inhibitory effects of dosing a sample of wood materials with varying concentrations of liquid C 6 H 15 NO (assuming it presented as Diethylethanolamine).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

THE METAL AVERSION OF LONG-DURATION GAMMA-RAY BURSTS

Recently, it has been suggested that the metallicity aversion of Long-duration Gamma Ray Bursts (LGRBs) is not intrinsic to their formation, but rather a consequence of the anti-correlation between star formation and metallicity seen in the general galaxy population. To investigate this proposal, we compare the metallicity of the hosts of LGRBs, broad-lined Type Ic (Ic-bl) supernovae (SNe), and Type II SNe to each other and to the metallicity distribution of star-forming galaxies using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to represent galaxies in the local universe and the Team Keck Redshift Survey (TKRS) for galaxies at intermediate redshifts. The differing metallicity distributions of LGRB hosts and the star formation in local galaxies forces us to conclude that the low-metallicity preference of LGRBs is not primarily driven by the anti-correlation between star formation and metallicity, but rather must be overwhelmingly due to the astrophysics of the LGRBs themselves. Three quarters of our LGRB sample are found at metallicities below 12+log(O/H) < 8.6, while less than a one-tenth of local star formation is at similarly low metallicities. However, our SN samples are statistically consistent with the metallicity distribution of the general galaxy population. Additionally, we show that the star formation rate distribution of the LGRB and SNe host populations are consistent with the star formation rate distribution of the SDSS galaxy sample. This provides further evidence that the low-metallicity distribution of LGRBs is not caused by the general properties of star-forming galaxies. Using the TKRS population of galaxies, we can exclude the possibility that the LGRB host metallicity aversion is caused by the decrease in galaxy metallicity with redshift, as this effect is clearly much smaller than the observed LGRB host metallicity bias over the redshift span of our sample. The presence of the strong metallicity difference between LGRBs and Type Ic-bl SNe largely eliminates the possibility that the observed LGRB metallicity bias is a byproduct of a difference in the initial mass functions of the galaxy populations. Rather, metallicity below half-solar must be a fundamental component of the evolutionary process that separates LGRBs from the vast majority of Type Ic-bl SNe and from the bulk of local star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗