Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Alfvén eigenmode stability in a JET afterglow deuterium plasma and projections to deuterium–tritium plasmas

Abstract The performance of fusion devices relies strongly on the good confinement of energetic particles (EPs). Therefore, the investigation of EP transport by magnetohydrodynamic instabilities is one of the key aspects in the development of plasma scenarios. Alfvénic instabilities in particular can lead to significant losses of alpha particles that are essential for plasma self-heating. A so-called afterglow scheme has been developed to study the destabilization of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) by alpha particles and associated EP transport in the JET tokamak. In this work, the linear stability of AEs is discussed for the partial afterglow phase in a JET deuterium plasma discharge and for the full afterglow phase in a projected deuterium–tritium (DT) plasma. Thanks to recent upgrades in the tokamak transport code TRANSP, one can account for the contributions of different EP species to mode stability. Analysis of deuterium plasmas shows that AE growth rates are extremely sensitive to the energy and distribution of fast ions. An increase in fast ion energy can lead to more unstable AEs. In the afterglow phase of projected DT plasmas, it is EPs that mostly drive the AEs. However, the drive by alpha particles is comparable to that by beam ions and their contribution to the net growth rate might be hard to separate. According to the discussed projections, the destabilization of AEs might be ineffective because the background plasma damping significantly exceeds the EP drive. In this case, the development of an alternative plasma scenario that allows us to overcome such damping would be required in future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The inclusion of uncertainty in circularity transition modeling: A case study on wind turbine blade end-of-life management

The transition to a more circular economy (CE) is complex and hard to predict, including in sustainable energy technologies. Many sources of uncertainty make it challenging to model CE scenarios and their potential benefits. As an example, the high variability in costs and revenues of different recycling options makes future wind turbine blade recycling highly uncertain. To better understand this challenge, the circular economy, life cycle assessment and visualization (CELAVI) framework - a discrete event simulation and life cycle assessment framework - is modified to incorporate uncertainty analysis capabilities. Moreover, a 3-step procedure that covers different aspects of uncertainty in CE studies and includes a Monte-Carlo analysis is proposed. The procedure is tested in a case study on wind turbine blade recycling using CELAVI. Results highlight that grinding and landfilling costs are the most influential parameters for wind power circularity. The model's output coefficients of variation (when input parameter uncertainties are propagated) are between 92% and 384% depending on the indicator. The approach developed in this study may help researchers and decision-makers who study circularity prioritize their data collection effort. Finally, our method contributes to a mounting yet critical body of research: the measurement of uncertainty in circularity transitions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) (Six-Month Progress Update) [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040, as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). Since hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017, DOE and its national laboratories have provided Puerto Rico energy system stakeholders with tools, training, and modeling support to enable planning and operation of the electric power grid with more resilience against further disruptions. On February 2, 2022, DOE, FEMA, and six national laboratories launched the two-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) to conduct comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's energy future. The robust and objective energy analysis entails five activities, with an emphasis on power system reliability, resilience, and generation planning. This presentation was delivered in a public webinar on July 21, 2022, providing a high level summary of the progress in the first six months of the study, including presentation of four initial scenario definitions based on extensive stakeholder input.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Algae to HEFA : Economics and potential deployment in the United States

Abstract To reach the goals set by the US Department of Energy's Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, currently available feedstocks may be insufficient. Giving priority to developing, prototyping and reducing the cost of algal feedstock before investing and lining up locations is important. As the production of algal feedstocks advances, a simplified conversion approach using more mature technologies can help reduce the investment risk for algae‐based fuels. Reducing process complexity to the steps described here [namely, conversion of lipids to HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) fuels and relegating the remainder of the biomass to anaerobic digestion or food/feed production] enables the near‐term production of algal SAF but presents challenging economics depending on achievable cultivation costs and compositional quality. However, these economics can be improved by present‐day policy incentives. With these incentives, the modeled algae‐to‐HEFA pathway could reach a minimum fuel selling price as low as $4.7 per gasoline gallon equivalent depending on the carbon intensity reduction that can be achieved compared with petroleum. Uncertainty about algal feedstock production maturity in the current state of technology and the future will play a large role in determining the economic feasibility of building algae‐to‐HEFA facilities. For example, if immaturity increases the feedstock price by even 10%, SAF production in 2050 is about 58% of the production which could have been achieved with mature feedstock. Additionally, growth in this conversion pathway can be notably boosted through the inclusion of subsidies, and also through higher‐value coproducts or higher lipid yields beyond the scope of the process considered here.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal Direct-Use Applications for the District Energy System in Bucharest, Romania

The city of Bucharest, Romania, hosts the second-largest district energy system (DES) in the world. Geothermal resources can be considered as a supplementary heat source to support the demand for domestic hot water and space heating in the winter and shoulder seasons. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) has conducted a study that considers geothermal energy to serve a fraction of the existing district heating network operated by Electrocentrale Bucure?ti (ELCEN), the utility operating the DES. Lower Cretaceous and Jurassic limestones make up the main geothermal aquifer underlying Bucharest, which hosts temperatures suitable for district heating (up to 90 degrees C to the north of the city). Anomalous geothermal gradients have been observed to the north of the city, where a pumped well has produced 82 degrees C brine at the wellhead to feed the Therme Bucharest Spa. An anomalous gradient has also been reported to the southeast of the city (35 degrees C/km). NLR modeled the building heating loads of a small portion of the DES (a block of nine prototypical buildings) in its Urban Renewable Building and Neighborhood Optimization (URBANopt ) platform. To simulate meeting a baseload benchmark of 20 MWth deliverable to a small portion of the DES, the NLR team used GEOPHIRES to model production scenarios for (1) hydrothermal systems coupled with heat pumps targeting the main geothermal aquifer in the north, (2) enhanced geothermal systems targeting hot dry rock in the southeast, and (3) huff-and-puff systems targeting a gradient of 25 degrees C/km. Finally, NLR conducted a high-level sensitivity study around the techno-economics of these systems. The outcomes of this work indicate that hot dry rock geothermal resources that can deliver at least 90 degrees C hot water to the Geothermal District Energy System (GeoDES) offer a possible solution for supplemental geothermal heat delivered to the existing DES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining transport and integrated modeling predictive capabilities for negative-triangularity scenarios

This paper investigates the predictive capabilities of TGYRO and TGLF models in assessing the performance of negative triangularity (NT) plasmas compared to positive triangularity (PT) plasmas in fusion devices. TGYRO predicts kinetic profiles, while TGLF analyzes turbulent transport. The study reveals that TGYRO reasonably predicts NT profiles similar to PT, although it overpredicts the high-power scenarios where there is increased experimental MHD activity. TGLF analysis finds reduced linear growth rates in NT and altered flux spectra relative to PT. Additionally, the TGLF SAT0 saturation model is observed to predict high-k transport and a reduction of particle transport with the electron temperature gradient. These findings are further corroborated by core-pedestal modeling using the Stability Transport Equilibrium Pedestal workflow, showing stronger confinement improvements in NT, particularly at higher power densities for the SAT0 saturation model. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of accurately capturing turbulence saturation mechanisms for NT in order to project its performance accurately in fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for dark matter produced in association with a dark Higgs boson decaying into $W$ + $W$ - in the one-lepton final state at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using 139 fb -1 of $pp$ collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector

Several extensions of the Standard Model predict the production of dark matter particles at the LHC. A search for dark matter particles produced in association with a dark Higgs boson decaying into $W$ + $W$ in the $\ell$ ± $vq$$\overline{q}$ $'$ final states with $\ell$ = $e, μ$ is presented. This analysis uses 139 fb-1 of pp collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The $W$ ± → $q$$\overline{q}$ $'$ decays are reconstructed from pairs of calorimeter-measured jets or from track-assisted reclustered jets, a technique aimed at resolving the dense topology from a pair of boosted quarks using jets in the calorimeter and tracking information. The observed data are found to agree with Standard Model predictions. Scenarios with dark Higgs boson masses ranging between 140 and 390 GeV are excluded.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated version of NUBEAM capabilities in DIII-D using neural networks

A neural network model of the effects of neutral beam injection on DIII-D has been developed. The training and testing data used by the model have been generated by the NUBEAM module of TRANSP for experimental discharges from the 2018 DIII-D campaign. Using a principle component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of profile data, the model has been shown to reproduce the results of the Monte Carlo code NUBEAM with a high level of accuracy and an execution time orders of magnitude faster than the execution time of NUBEAM. Furthermore, this makes the neural network model uniquely suited to applications in model-based scenario planning (off-line) and active control (on-line), where a large number of simulation runs are required by the associated optimization tasks that need to be performed before and during the discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Permeability Hysteresis From Microchannels Opening During Dissolution/Reprecipitation Cycle

Abstract Permeability is a critical parameter for geological resources characterization. Its evolution with respect to porosity is particularly interesting and many research initiatives focus on deriving such relationships, to understand some hydraulic impacts of microstructure alteration. Permeability evolution from chemical reactions, for instance, can become complex as flow channels may open during rock dissolution. In this contribution, we show that this phenomenon can lead to irregular porosity‐permeability curves and permeability hysteresis after reprecipitation. Current approaches describing permeability as a simple function of porosity can therefore not capture this behavior, and we advocate instead the use of dynamic modeling for such scenarios. We demonstrate our approach by modeling a dissolution/precipitation cycle for a unit cell pore channel and quantify the process at larger scale on three different rock samples, whose microstructures are reconstructed from segmented micro‐Computerised Tomography scans.

Lesueur, Martin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long range frequency chirping of Alfvén eigenmodes

In this work, a theoretical framework has been developed for an NBI scenario to model the hard non-linear evolution of global Alfvén eigenmodes (GAEs) where the adiabatic motion of phase-space structures (holes and clumps), associated with frequency chirping, occurs in generalized phase-space of slowing down energetic particles. The radial profile of the GAE is expanded using finite elements, which allows an update of the mode structure as the mode frequency chirps. Constants of motion are introduced to track the dynamics of energetic particles during frequency chirping by implementing proper action-angle variables and canonical transformations which reduce the dynamics essentially to 1D. Consequently, we specify whether the particles are drifting inward/outward as the frequency deviates from the initial MHD eigenfrequency. Using the principle of least action, we have derived the non-linear equation describing the evolution of the radial profile by varying the total Lagrangian of the system with respect to the weights of the finite elements. For the choice of parameters in this work, it is shown that the peak of the radial profile is shifted and also broadens due to frequency chirping. The time rate of frequency change is also calculated using the energy balance and we show that the adiabatic condition remains valid once it is satisfied. This model clearly illustrates the theoretical treatment to study the long-range adiabatic frequency sweeping events observed for Alfvén gap modes in real experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beam-dump ceiling and its experimental implications: The case of a portable experiment

We generalize the nature of the so-called beam-dump “ceiling” beyond which the improvement on the sensitivity reach in the search for fast-decaying mediators dramatically slows down, and we point out its experimental implications that motivate tabletop-sized beam-dump experiments for the search. Light (bosonic) mediators are well-motivated new-physics particles, as they can appear in dark-sector portal scenarios and models to explain various laboratory-based anomalies. Due to their low mass and feebly interacting nature, beam-dump-type experiments, utilizing high-intensity particle beams, can play a crucial role in probing the parameter space of such visibly decaying mediators—in particular, the “prompt decay” region, where the mediators feature relatively large coupling and mass. We present a general and semianalytic proof that the ceiling effectively arises in the prompt-decay region of an experiment and show its insensitivity to data statistics, background estimates, and systematic uncertainties, considering a concrete example, the search for axion-like particles interacting with ordinary photons at three benchmark beam facilities: PIP-II at FNAL, and SPS and LHC-dump at CERN. We then identify optimal criteria to perform a cost-effective and short-term experiment to reach the ceiling, demonstrating that very short-baseline compact experiments enable access to the parameter space unreachable thus far.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mesogenesis through the ephemeral dark decay of Beauty

Mesogenesis provides a path for generating the baryon asymmetry of the Universe, using only the CP violation furnished by the Standard Model in the decay of B mesons. While this is an intriguing possibility, it is largely constrained by the data on B meson branching fractions into baryons and missing energy carried into the dark sector. We point out that it is possible to make this branching fraction dominant only in the early Universe, through an ultralight scalar coupled to the dark sector and the Standard Model leptons. A scenario is examined where the thermal density of muons in the early Universe temporarily lowers the mass of a dark fermion, allowing for efficient B meson decays. This `dark’ decay channel is shut off later when the muon number density falls, making the scenario compatible with flavor data. Our model can be consistent with the LHC constraints on color-charged heavy bosons required to implement Mesogenesis; such states may be discovered in the future runs as their masses cannot be far above the current bounds. We also outline other possible signals, which can arise in future displaced vertex searches, long range force searches, and observations of neutron star binary mergers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗