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NASA NTRS2016

Estimation of the Ocean Skin Temperature using the NASA GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

This report documents the status of the development of a sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Version-5 atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). Its implementation is part of the steps being taken toward the development of an integrated earth system analysis. Currently, GEOS-ADAS SST is a bulk ocean temperature (from ocean boundary conditions), and is almost identical to the skin sea surface temperature. Here we describe changes to the atmosphere-ocean interface layer of the GEOS-atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to include near surface diurnal warming and cool-skin effects. We also added SST relevant Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations to the GEOS-ADAS observing system. We provide a detailed description of our analysis of these observations, along with the modifications to the interface between the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model, gridpoint statistical interpolation-based atmospheric analysis and the community radiative transfer model. Our experiments (with and without these changes) show improved assimilation of satellite radiance observations. We obtained a closer fit to withheld, in-situ buoys measuring near-surface SST. Evaluation of forecast skill scores corroborate improvements seen in the observation fits. Along with a discussion of our results, we also include directions for future work.

AGCM↗
NASA NTRS1990

A simulation-based test bed for data-association algorithms

A modular All-Source System-evaluation Test bed (ASSET) designed and developed for aiding in the testing and evaluation of advanced data-acquisition algorithms is described, with focus placed on the problem of integrating surveillance information in supporting command decision making. The evaluation procedure employed is based on a measure of the distance between a baseline representation and the representation produced by the association algorithm at some time instant. Choices for the baseline representation are presented, and scores are defined between these baselines and an algorithm representation. The test-bed architecture implementing the evaluation procedure is described, and sample outputs from performing algorithm evaluations in the test bed are outlined.

Brown, Donald E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Criteria for evaluation of grid generation systems

Many CFD grid generation systems are in use nationally, but few comparative studies have been performed to quantify their relative merits. A study was undertaken to systematically evaluate and select the best CFD grid generation codes available. Detailed evaluation criteria were established as the basis for the evaluation conducted. Descriptions of thirty-four separate criteria, grouped into eight general categories are provided. Benchmark test cases, developed to test basic features of selected codes, are described in detail. Scoring guidelines were generated to establish standards for measuring code capabilities, ensuring uniformity of ratings, and minimizing personal bias among the three code evaluators. Ten candidate codes were identified from government, industry, universities, and commercial software companies. A three phase evaluation was conducted. In Phase 1, ten codes identified were screened through conversations with code authors and other industry experts. Seven codes were carried forward into a Phase 2 evaluation in which all codes were scored according to the predefined criteria. Two codes emerged as being significantly better than the others: RAGGS and GRIDGEN. Finally, these two codes were carried forward into a Phase 3 evaluation in which complex 3-D multizone grids were generated to verify capability.

Ascoli, Edward P.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A control theory model for human decision making

The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.

Levison, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Empirical Analysis and Automated Classification of Security Bug Reports

With the ever expanding amount of sensitive data being placed into computer systems, the need for effective cybersecurity is of utmost importance. However, there is a shortage of detailed empirical studies of security vulnerabilities from which cybersecurity metrics and best practices could be determined. This thesis has two main research goals: (1) to explore the distribution and characteristics of security vulnerabilities based on the information provided in bug tracking systems and (2) to develop data analytics approaches for automatic classification of bug reports as security or non-security related. This work is based on using three NASA datasets as case studies. The empirical analysis showed that the majority of software vulnerabilities belong only to a small number of types. Addressing these types of vulnerabilities will consequently lead to cost efficient improvement of software security. Since this analysis requires labeling of each bug report in the bug tracking system, we explored using machine learning to automate the classification of each bug report as a security or non-security related (two-class classification), as well as each security related bug report as specific security type (multiclass classification). In addition to using supervised machine learning algorithms, a novel unsupervised machine learning approach is proposed. An ac- curacy of 92%, recall of 96%, precision of 92%, probability of false alarm of 4%, F-Score of 81% and G-Score of 90% were the best results achieved during two-class classification. Furthermore, an accuracy of 80%, recall of 80%, precision of 94%, and F-score of 85% were the best results achieved during multiclass classification.

Cybersecurity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Contextualizing Air Traffic Management Conversations using Natural Language Understanding

Efficient management of air traffic and mitigation of delays depend on extracting actionable information from unstructured data, such as dialogues from the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) telecons. This study presents a pipeline utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods for Intent Classification (IC) and Slot Filling (SF) to identify and extract Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) from aviation-specific dialogues. We leveraged DeBERTa, a pre-trained transformer model, and fine-tuned it to the nuances of the aviation domain. Despite challenges posed by annotation complexities, the IC model achieved promising results with a weighted average F1-score of 0.81. Our results are close to those of human annotators, which demonstrates the model’s strong alignment with human-level performance. The SF model also showed strong performance, achieving a weighted F1-score of 0.97, which demonstrates its effectiveness in accurately predicting key slots. Our analysis revealed limitations in handling less frequent intents and slot labels due to data sparsity, motivating future efforts to adopt joint IC-SF modeling and data augmentation strategies. This research highlights the potential of domain-specific NLP to streamline decision-making in the aviation industry and improve the management of TMIs.

Air Traffic Control Management↗
NASA NTRS2005

Identification of a typical flight patterns

Method and system for analyzing aircraft data, including multiple selected flight parameters for a selected phase of a selected flight, and for determining when the selected phase of the selected flight is atypical, when compared with corresponding data for the same phase for other similar flights. A flight signature is computed using continuous- valued and discrete-valued flight parameters for the selected flight parameters and is optionally compared with a statistical distribution of other observed flight signatures, yielding a typicality scores for the same phase for other similar flights. A cluster analysis is optionally applied to the flight signatures to define an optimal collection of clusters. A level of atypicality for a selected flight is estimated, based upon an index associated with the cluster analysis.

Irving C Statler↗
NASA NTRS2005

Identification of atypical flight patterns

Method and system for analyzing aircraft data, including multiple selected flight parameters for a selected phase of a selected flight, and for determining when the selected phase of the selected flight is atypical, when compared with corresponding data for the same phase for other similar flights. A flight signature is computed using continuous-valued and discrete-valued flight parameters for the selected flight parameters and is optionally compared with a statistical distribution of other observed flight signatures, yielding atypicality scores for the same phase for other similar flights. A cluster analysis is optionally applied to the flight signatures to define an optimal collection of clusters. A level of atypicality for a selected flight is estimated, based upon an index associated with the cluster analysis.

Statler, Irving C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A System for Automatically Generating Scheduling Heuristics

The goal of this research is to improve the performance of automated schedulers by designing and implementing an algorithm by automatically generating heuristics by selecting a schedule. The particular application selected by applying this method solves the problem of scheduling telescope observations, and is called the Associate Principal Astronomer. The input to the APA scheduler is a set of observation requests submitted by one or more astronomers. Each observation request specifies an observation program as well as scheduling constraints and preferences associated with the program. The scheduler employs greedy heuristic search to synthesize a schedule that satisfies all hard constraints of the domain and achieves a good score with respect to soft constraints expressed as an objective function established by an astronomer-user.

Morris, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1988

Estimating the cost of mental loading in a bimodal divided-attention task: Combining reaction time, heart-rate variability and signal-detection theory

Multiple approaches are necessary for understanding and measuring workload. In particular, physiological systems identifiable by employing cardiac measures are related to cognitive systems. One issue of debate in measuring cardiac output is the grain of analysis used in recording and summarizing data. Various experiments are reviewed, the majority of which were directed at supporting or contradicting Lacey's intake-rejection hypothesis. Two of the experiments observed heart rate in operational environments and found virtually no changes associated with mental load. The major problems facing researchers using heart rate variability, or sinus arrhthmia, as a dependent measure have been associated with valid and sensitive scoring and preventing contamination of observed results by influences unrelated to cognition. Spectral analysis of heart rate variability offers two useful procedures: analysis from the time domain and analysis from the frequency domain. Most recently, data have been collected in a divided attention experiment, the performance measures and cardiac measures of which are detailed.

Casper, Patricia A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Arctic Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS1993

Analyzing human errors in flight mission operations

A long-term program is in progress at JPL to reduce cost and risk of flight mission operations through a defect prevention/error management program. The main thrust of this program is to create an environment in which the performance of the total system, both the human operator and the computer system, is optimized. To this end, 1580 Incident Surprise Anomaly reports (ISA's) from 1977-1991 were analyzed from the Voyager and Magellan projects. A Pareto analysis revealed that 38 percent of the errors were classified as human errors. A preliminary cluster analysis based on the Magellan human errors (204 ISA's) is presented here. The resulting clusters described the underlying relationships among the ISA's. Initial models of human error in flight mission operations are presented. Next, the Voyager ISA's will be scored and included in the analysis. Eventually, these relationships will be used to derive a theoretically motivated and empirically validated model of human error in flight mission operations. Ultimately, this analysis will be used to make continuous process improvements continuous process improvements to end-user applications and training requirements. This Total Quality Management approach will enable the management and prevention of errors in the future.

Bruno, Kristin J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Evaluation of tactual displays for flight control

Manual tracking experiments were conducted to determine the suitability of tactual displays for presenting flight-control information in multitask situations. Although tracking error scores are considerably greater than scores obtained with a continuous visual display, preliminary results indicate that inter-task interference effects are substantially less with the tactual display in situations that impose high visual scanning workloads. The single-task performance degradation found with the tactual display appears to be a result of the coding scheme rather than the use of the tactual sensory mode per se. Analysis with the state-variable pilot/vehicle model shows that reliable predictions of tracking errors can be obtained for wide-band tracking systems once the pilot-related model parameters have been adjusted to reflect the pilot-display interaction.

Levison, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Validity and Reliability of Dynamic Visual Acuity (DVA) Measurement During Walking

DVA is primarily subserved by the vestibulo‐ocular reflex mechanism. Individuals with vestibular hypofunction commonly experience highly debilitating illusory movement or blurring of visual images during daily activities possibly, due to impaired DVA. Even without pathologies, gradual age‐related morphological deterioration is evident in all components of the vestibular system. We examined the construct validity to detect age‐related differences and test‐retest reliability of DVA measurements performed during walking. METHODS: Healthy adults were recruited into 3 groups: 1. young (20‐39years, n=18), 2. middle‐aged (40‐59years, n=14), and 3. older adults (60‐80years, n=15). Randomly selected seven participants from each group (n=21) participated in retesting. Participants were excluded if they had a history of vestibular or neuromuscular pathologies, dizziness/vertigo or >1 falls in the past year. Older persons with MMSE scores <29/30 were excluded to minimize cognitive errors. Participants' age, height, weight and normal walking speed were recorded. The binocular DVA was measured while walking on a treadmill at 0.8 m/s, 1.0 m/s and 1.2 m/s speeds. The walking speeds chosen represent a range of slow to moderate walking speeds for adult life span in participants who have no current mobility problems. The monitor that displayed Landolt 'C' optotypes was placed at 50 cm from the eyes for nearDVA (primary compensation by otolith organs) and at 3.0 m for farDVA (primary compensation by semicircular canals). A mixed factor ANOVA (age group x speed) was performed separately for the Near and FarDVA for detecting group differences. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated for each condition to determine test‐retest reliability. RESULTS: The three age groups were not different in their height, weight and normal walking speed (p>0.05). The post hoc analyses for DVA measurements demonstrated that each group was significantly different from the other two groups for Near as well as FarDVA (p<0.001‐p=0.031). The effect of speed was significant for both NearDVA (p=0.012) and FarDVA (p=0.014), however, there was no age group x speed interaction (FarDVA p=0.607, NearDVA p=0.343). The ICCs for Near and FarDVA ranged between 0.85‐ 0.88 and 0.71‐0.87, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in DVA between the three age groups were detected by using both Near and FarDVA protocols irrespective of the walking speed. Therefore, age group‐specific reference values should be used for detecting malfunction. Further, consistency in walking speed is critical for comparing between studies. NearDVA at all walking speeds and FarDVA at the speed of 1.2 m/s demonstrated excellent testretest reliability. FarDVA at 0.8 m/s and 1.0 m/s demonstrated good test‐retest reliability (ICCs 0.71 and 0.77, respectively).

Deshpande, Nandini↗
NASA NTRS1973

Visual-motor response of crewmen during a simulated 90-day space mission as measured by the critical task battery

In order to test various components of a regenerative life support system and to obtain data on the physiological and psychological effects of long duration exposure to confinement in a space station atmosphere, four carefully screened young men were sealed in a space station simulator for 90 days and administered a tracking test battery. The battery included a clinical test (Critical Instability Task) designed to measure a subject's dynamic time delay, and a more conventional steady tracking task, during which dynamic response (describing functions) and performance measures were obtained. Good correlation was noted between the clinical critical instability scores and more detailed tracking parameters such as dynamic time delay and gain-crossover frequency. The levels of each parameter span the range observed with professional pilots and astronaut candidates tested previously. The chamber environment caused no significant decrement on the average crewman's dynamic response behavior, and the subjects continued to improve slightly in their tracking skills during the 90-day confinement period.

Allen, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human Health Countermeasures - Partial-Gravity Analogs Workshop

The experimental conditions that were deemed the most interesting by the HHC Element lead scientists are those permitting studies of the long-term effects of exposure to (a) chronic rotation when supine or in head down tilt (ground-based); and (b) long-radius centrifugation (space based). It is interesting to note that chronic ground based slow rotation room studies have not been performed since the 1960's, when the USA and USSR were investigating the potential use of AG for long-duration space missions. On the other hand, the other partial gravity analogs, i.e., parabolic flight, HUT, suspension, and short-radius centrifugation, have been regularly used in the last three decades (see review in Clément et al. 2015). Based on the workshop evaluations and the scores by the HHC scientific disciplines indicated in tables 3 and 4, simulation of partial G between 0 and 1 should be prioritized as follows: Priority 1. Chronic space-based partial-G analogs: a. Chronic space-based long-radius centrifugation. The ideal scenario would be chronic long-radius centrifugation of cells, animals and humans in a translational research approach - ideally beyond low earth orbit under deep space environmental effects and at various rotations - to obtain different G-effects. In this scenario, all physiological systems could be evaluated and the relationship between physiological response and G level established. This would be the most integrative way of defining, for the first time ever, G-thresholds for each physiological system. b. Chronic space-based centrifugation of animals. Chronic centrifugation of rodents at various G levels in space would allow for determination of AG thresholds of protection for each physiological system. In this case, all physiological systems will be of interest. Intermittent centrifugation will be of secondary interest. c. Chronic space-based centrifugation of cell cultures (RWV). Bioreactor studies of cells and cell cultures of various tissues at various G levels would allow for intracellular investigations of the effects of partial-G. Priority 2. Acute, intermittent space based partial-G analogs: a. Acute, intermittent space-based short radius human centrifugation. Intermittent centrifugation of humans would allow determination of thresholds of AG for protection of astronaut health in space. Priority 3. Chronic ground-based partial-G analogs: a. Chronic centrifugation of supine or head-down tilted humans. b. Chronic head-up tilt in humans. c. Chronic head-out graded dry immersion in humans. d. Chronic partial suspension of rodents e. Chronic rotating bioreactor cell culture studies (RWV) Priority 4. Acute ground based partial-G analogs. a. Parabolic flights. Very acute and short term effects of G levels between 0 and 1 in humans for fast responding systems like cardiovascular and sensorimotor as well as for acute responses in cell cultures and animals. b. Other acute models as indicated in table 3.

Barr, Yael↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of A Directed Acyclic Graph for Venous Thromboembolism During Spaceflight

Introduction: Recent studies have reported the development of venous blood flow stasis in astronauts and an occlusive venous thrombosis during spaceflight. Subsequent investigations revealed approximately one quarter of surveilled crew members had some degree of blood flow stasis in the left internal jugular vein. Therefore, NASA’s Human System Risk Board now formally tracks venous thromboembolism (VTE) as a “concern” for human spaceflight. To investigate potential mechanisms by which exposures concomitant with spaceflight (e.g., microgravity, radiation) may contribute to VTE, we developed a causal diagram in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Methods: The mechanisms by which spaceflight exposures may elevate the risk of VTE and the downstream effects on mission outcomes were critically analyzed, taking into account scientific literature and subject matter expertise consultation, and a DAG was generated. A Level-of-Evidence score for each causal relationship was assigned based on assessing the literature against a set of criteria derived from the A. Bradford Hill Causal Guidelines. Results: The set of three main factors that predispose people to VTE (hypercoagulability, endothelial damage, and blood stasis) is known as Virchow’s Triad. In constructing the DAG for VTE we articulated various mechanisms by which the principal spaceflight hazards (microgravity, radiation, closed hostile environment, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth) are thought to interact with or cause the components in Virchow’s triad. We found sufficient evidence to at least speculate that fluid shifts from microgravity, compensatory alterations in hematologic indices, spaceflight atmospheric conditions, and oxidative stress/inflammation from radiation may be potential contributors to VTE development. Discussion: Developing the DAG entailed a systematic and repeatable approach for visualizing relationships between contributing factors that may lead to VTE in spaceflight. Articulating pathways linking spaceflight exposures to VTE risk factors and possible VTE development enables subject matter experts from different domains to construct a shared mental model. Assignment of levels of evidence scores to the relationships helps identify knowledge and capability gaps that should be considered for further investigation. Furthermore, the DAG highlights modifiable variables and may therefore facilitate the development of new VTE risk mitigation strategies.

Alexander Svoronos↗
NASA NTRS1972

Visual motor response of crewmen during a simulated 90 day space mission as measured by the critical task battery

In order to test various components of a regenerative life support system and to obtain data on the physiological and psychological effects of long-duration exposure to confinement in a space station atmosphere, four carefully screened young men were sealed in space station simulator for 90 days. A tracking test battery was administered during the above experiment. The battery included a clinical test (critical instability task) related to the subject's dynamic time delay, and a conventional steady tracking task, during which dynamic response (describing functions) and performance measures were obtained. Good correlation was noted between the clinical critical instability scores and more detailed tracking parameters such as dynamic time delay and gain-crossover frequency. The comprehensive data base on human operator tracking behavior obtained in this study demonstrate that sophisticated visual-motor response properties can be efficiently and reliably measured over extended periods of time.

Allen, R. W.↗