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At least 235 records · Page 13

Analysis of Weather and Climate Extremes Impact on Power System Outage

This paper provides statistical analysis of the characteristics of power system outages to gain a better understanding of the impacts of the increasing severe weather conditions on the outages. 10-year historical power system outage data from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) were gathered together with co-located weather attributes and recorded extreme weather events in the service area, which are paired in comparable spatial and temporal scales, with a focus on each outage transmission line. Statistical frequency analysis and cross-tabular evaluation are performed to investigate the occurring frequency and duration of outages associated with extreme weather in this area of study. The study reveals that the weather-related outages can be mainly attributed to hail and thunderstorm events which correspond to up to 60% out of all failures in several transmission line types.

Ren, Huiying↗

A study of turbulence near thunderstorm tops

It has been known for many years that turbulence significant for aviation often occurs near thunderstorm tops. However, that turbulence is not well-predicted because of an incomplete understanding of the processes which generate it and because of inadequate observations. The current study seeks to alleviate these problems via: (1) a comprehensive review of recent theoretical and experimental studies related to turbulence near thunderstorm tops (TNTT), and (2) three case studies designed to examine the feasibility of using data derived from commercial aircraft to study TNTT. The literature review revealed extensive evidence which showed that convection often produces significant barrier effects; several mesoscale phenomena capable of producing turbulence may occur, depending on wind and stability conditions near the thunderstorm tops. These include two- and three-dimensional lee waves, rotors, Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities, and Karman vortices. Conventional meteorological data were combined with data derived from the aircraft flight tapes to produce quantitative descriptions of the turbulence and its mesoscale environment for the three cases.

Pantley, Kim Christine↗

Differences between measured and linearly interpolated synoptic variables over a 12-h period during AVE 4

Results of analyses revealed that nonlinear changes or differences formed centers or systems, that were mesosynoptic in nature. These systems correlated well in space with upper level short waves, frontal zones, and radar observed convection, and were very systematic in time and space. Many of the centers of differences were well established in the vertical, extending up to the tropopause. Statistical analysis showed that on the average nonlinear changes were larger in convective areas than nonconvective regions. Errors often exceeding 100 percent were made by assuming variables to change linearly through a 12-h period in areas of thunderstorms, indicating that these nonlinear changes are important in the development of severe weather. Linear changes, however, accounted for more and more of an observed change as the time interval (within the 12-h interpolation period) increased, implying that the accuracy of linear interpolation increased over larger time intervals.

Dupuis, L. R.↗

Analysis of severe atmospheric disturbances from airline flight records

Advanced methods were developed to determine time varying winds and turbulence from digital flight data recorders carried aboard modern airliners. Analysis of several cases involving severe clear air turbulence encounters at cruise altitudes has shown that the aircraft encountered vortex arrays generated by destabilized wind shear layers above mountains or thunderstorms. A model was developed to identify the strength, size, and spacing of vortex arrays. This model is used to study the effects of severe wind hazards on operational safety for different types of aircraft. The study demonstrates that small remotely piloted vehicles and executive aircraft exhibit more violent behavior than do large airliners during encounters with high-altitude vortices. Analysis of digital flight data from the accident at Dallas/Ft. Worth in 1985 indicates that the aircraft encountered a microburst with rapidly changing winds embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. A multiple-vortex-ring model was developed to represent the microburst wind pattern. This model can be used in flight simulators to better understand the control problems in severe microburst encounters.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

Analysis of severe atmospheric disturbances from airline flight records

Advanced methods were developed to determine time varying winds and turbulence from digital flight data recorders carried aboard modern airliners. Analysis of several cases involving severe clear air turbulence encounters at cruise altitudes has shown that the aircraft encountered vortex arrays generated by destabilized wind shear layers above mountains or thunderstorms. A model was developed to identify the strength, size, and spacing of vortex arrays. This model is used to study the effects of severe wind hazards on operational safety for different types of aircraft. It is demonstrated that small remotely piloted vehicles and executive aircraft exhibit more violent behavior than do large airliners during encounters with high-altitude vortices. Analysis of digital flight data from the accident at Dallas/Ft. Worth in 1985 indicates that the aircraft encountered a microburst with rapidly changing winds embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. A multiple-vortex-ring model was developed to represent the microburst wind pattern. This model can be used in flight simulators to better understand the control problems in severe microburst encounters.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

High-Altitude Aircraft-Based Electric-Field Measurements above Thunderstorms

We have developed a new set of eight electric field mills that were flown on a NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. During the Third Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX- 3; Fall, 1998), measurements of electric field, storm dynamics, and ice microphysics were made over several hurricanes. Concurrently, the TExas-FLorida UNderflights (TEFLUN) program was being conducted to make the same measurements over Gulf Coast thunderstorms. Sample measurements will be shown. Our new mills have an internal 16-bit A/D, with a resolution of 0.25 V/m per bit at high gain, with a noise level less than the least significant bit. A second, lower gain channel gives us the ability to measure fields as high as 150 kV/m.

Bateman, M. G.↗

High-Altitude Aircraft-Based Electric-Field Measurements Above Thunderstorms

We have developed a new set of eight electric field mills that were flown on a NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. During the Third Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3; Fall, 1998), measurements of electric field, storm dynamics, and ice microphysics were made over several hurricanes. Concurrently, the TExas-FLorida UNderflights (TEFLUN) program was being conducted to make the same measurements over Gulf Coast thunderstorms. Sample measurements are shown: typical flight altitude is 20km. Our new mills have an internal 16-bit A/D, with a resolution of 0.25V/m per bit at high gain, with a noise level less than the least significant bit. A second, lower gain channel gives us the ability to measure fields as high as 150 kV/m.

Bateman, M. G.↗

Floating Island International PHASE I FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT (Advancing the Development of Floating Solar-Powered Nanobubble Aeration Systems for Use with Floating Treatment Wetlands in Natural and Man-Made Waterbodies)

More and more freshwater lakes are suffering from algae blooms, which deprive water of oxygen and lead to widespread loss of aquatic life and production of dangerous toxins. When oxygen is lacking, methane is generated in the sediments as algae is decomposed; it has been calculated that more than half of global methane emissions come from nutrient-impaired freshwater systems (Beaulieu, 2021). Nutrients, mainly from agricultural run-off, feed algae blooms and are exacerbated by warming related to climate change. Artificial aeration is frequently used to restore oxygen to a waterbody. But diffuser aeration is inefficient and expensive, needs on-site grid power, and is failing to keep pace with the demands of water as it gets warmer with climate change. In the last five years, nanobubble aeration has been introduced into freshwater applications and shows promise for rapidly increasing dissolved oxygen effectively throughout the water column. Nanobubbles deliver oxygen in bubbles that have no buoyancy, so they stay in water longer and release their oxygen more fully, compared to large bubbles that rise and burst at the surface. The prospect of this new technology answering the deficiencies of diffuser aeration drove us to initiate the current project. During our Phase I period, we have successfully tested a nanobubble aeration system that can super-saturate oxygen levels. It is operated on solar power, and both the nanobubbler and solar array are mounted on a proprietary floating island platform, that also performs biological nutrient recycling. A rudimentary system was assembled and tested on a 6.5-acre research lake at our headquarters in Montana, where it was subjected to a summer drought that reduced water levels significantly, periods of severe cold in winter, and spring conditions that included heavy rainfall and violent thunderstorms. Our twice-weekly sampling throughout the project showed that dissolved oxygen levels rose rapidly and were maintained throughout winter and spring, well into June. The nanobubbler was able to run on solar power for long periods. Methane levels were tested periodically and found to decrease as oxygen increased. The nanobubbles appeared to have no adverse impact on fish or other aquatic life exposed to them. The stability of the installation survived the weather conditions. The many problems we encountered taught us what we need to improve in the next iteration. Towards the end of our Phase I, we were awarded a supplementary state grant that enabled us to acquire a new nanobubble system for testing that runs on DC, is extremely efficient and has few moving parts. We plan to team this with low-profile solar panels, lithium batteries and a controller that provides real-time data. The ultimate goal of this project is to commercialize an affordable and scalable lake management system that will oxygenate water from the surface down to the sludge. It will enliven fisheries, prevent toxic algae blooms and – most importantly for the fate of our planet - inhibit the production and release of methane from the sediments. We anticipate that as carbon credits expand to include methane, the cost of remediating waterbodies that produce methane will be offset. We firmly believe that this is a practical technology that works and will make a big difference when fully implemented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ability of a regional-scale model to predict the genesis of intense mesoscale convective systems

The mesoscale part of a two-part evaluation of 30 forecasts by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MASS 2.0) is presented. Unfiltered fields are combined into convective predictor fields, the loci of which are then related at two-hour intervals to the loci of strong mesoscale convective systems identifiable in national radar summary plots and GOES satellite imagery. Examples of model 'forecasts' of intense convective storm clusters, a severe squall line triggered along a dryline, orographically induced hailstorms, and sea breeze thunderstorms are provided.

Koch, S. E.↗

Middle atmospheric electric fields over thunderstorms

This grant has supported a variety of investigations all having to do with the external electrodynamics of thunderstorms. The grant was a continuation of work begun while the PI was at the Aerospace Corporation (under NASA Grant NAS6-3109) and the general line of investigation continues today under NASA Grants NAG5-685 and NAG6-111. This report will briefly identify the subject areas of the research and associated results. The period actually covered by the grant NAG5-604 included the following analysis and flights: (1) analysis of five successful balloon flights in 1980 and 1981 (under the predecessor NASA grant) in the stratosphere over thunderstorms; (2) development and flight of the Hy-wire tethered balloon system for direct measurement of the atmospheric potential to 250 kV (this involved multiple tethered balloon flight periods from 1981 through 1986 from several locations including Wallops Island, VA, Poker Flat and Ft. Greely, AK and Holloman AFB, NM.); (3) balloon flights in the stratosphere over thunderstorms to measure vector electric fields and associated parameters in 1986 (2 flights), 1987 (4 flights), and 1988 (2 flights); and (4) rocket-borne optical lightning flash detectors on two rocket flights (1987 and 1988) (the same detector design that was used for the balloon flights listed under #3). In summary this grant supported 8 stratospheric zero-pressure balloon flights, tethered aerostat flights every year between 1982-1985, instruments on 2 rockets, and analysis of data from 6 stratospheric flights in 1980/81.

Holzworth, Robert H.↗

Research instrumentation for tornado electromagnetics emissions detection

Instrumentation for receiving, processing, and recording HF/VHF electromagnetic emissions from severe weather activity is described. Both airborne and ground-based instrumentation units are described on system and subsystem levels. Design considerations, design decisions, and the rationale behind the decisions are given. Performance characteristics are summarized and recommendations for improvements are given. The objectives, procedures, and test results of the following are presented: (1) airborne flight test in the Midwest U.S.A. (Spring 1975) and at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida (Summer 1975); (2) ground-based data collected in North Georgia (Summer/Fall 1975); and (3) airborne flight test in the Midwest (late Spring 1976) and at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida (Summer 1976). The Midwest tests concentrated on severe weather with tornadic activity; the Florida and Georgia tests monitored air mass convective thunderstorm characteristics. Supporting ground truth data from weather radars and sferics DF nets are described.

Jenkins, H. H.↗

An Aircraft Encounter with Turbulence in the Vicinity of a Thunderstorm

Large eddy simulations of three convective turbulence events are investigated and compared with observational data. Two events were characterized with severe turbulence and the other with moderate turbulence. Two of the events occurred during NASA s turbulence flight experiments during the spring of 2002, and the third was an event identified by the Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) Program. Each event was associated with developing or ongoing convection and was characterized by regions of low to moderate radar reflectivity. Model comparisons with observations are favorable. The data sets from these simulations can be used to test turbulence detection sensors.

Hamilton, David W.↗

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull

Abstract The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season started quickly, with the earliest Category 5 on record (Beryl) and three hurricanes forming through 14 August. Following Ernesto's dissipation on 20 August, the Atlantic hurricane season became extremely quiet during the climatological peak of hurricane season, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm through 23 September. Several environmental factors likely contributed to this unexpected, prolonged lull. During mid‐to‐late August, subseasonal conditions were broadly favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, but a northward shift in African easterly wave emergence latitude yielded fewer tropical cyclone seed disturbances that also traversed unfavorably cool ocean water. During early‐to‐mid September, subseasonal variability driven by the Madden‐Julian oscillation was less conducive to hurricane activity, with several bouts of increased vertical wind shear across the central Atlantic. Throughout most of the lull, the tropical Atlantic was anomalously dry and subsident, suppressing hurricane formation chances. Plain Language Summary The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season was anticipated to be extremely active, with seasonal forecasts calling for a potentially historic season. Following a busy start including the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record (Beryl), the season became very quiet between 20 August–23 September, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm forming. Following the lull, the Atlantic became extremely busy again, with seven hurricanes forming from 25 September through the end of the season–the most on record for this period. This paper focuses on the surprising lull and attributes it to several different factors, including a late‐August northward shift in African easterly wave tracks (organized thunderstorm complexes spanning thousands of kilometers that often serve as Atlantic hurricane seeds). This northward shift brought these systems out over colder water and into a drier airmass, suppressing their hurricane formation chances. During the first 3 weeks of September, a large‐scale tropical phenomenon known as the Madden‐Julian oscillation, resulted in increased sinking motion, drier mid‐levels and increased vertical wind shear–all of which typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Overall, the lull demonstrates how seed disturbances and other environmental factors can strongly modulate aggregate seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Key Points Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting agencies, which called for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Factors reducing storm count included a northward shift in African easterly waves, broad‐scale subsidence, and reduced mid‐level moisture

Klotzbach, P J↗

Characterization of Mesoscale Convective Systems by Means of Composite Radar Reflectivity Data

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is broadly defined as a cloud and precipitation system of mesoscale dimensions (often too large for most aircraft to circumnavigate) with deep-convective activity concentrated in at least part of the MCS, or present during part of its evolution. A large areal fraction of MCSs is stratiform in nature, yet estimates from MCSs over the Great Plains, the Southeast, and tropical waters indicate that at least half of the precipitation is of convective origin. The presence of localized convection is important, because within convective towers cloud particles and hydrometeors are carried upward towards the cloud top. Ice crystals then move over more stratiform regions, either laterally, or through in situ settling over decaying and spreading convection. These ice crystals then grow to precipitation-size particles in mid- to upper tropospheric mesoscale updrafts. The convective portion of a MCS is often a more or less continuous line of thunderstorms, and may be either short-lived or long-lived. Geerts (1997) presents a preliminary climatology of MCSs in the southeastern USA, using just one year of composite digital radar reflectivity data. In this study MCSs are identified and characterized by means of visual inspection of animated images. A total of 398 MCSs were identified. In the warm season MCSs were found to be about twice as frequent as in the cold season. The average lifetime and maximum length of MCSs are 9 hours, and 350 km, respectively, but some MCSs are much larger and more persistent. In the summer months small and short-lived MCSs are relatively more common, whereas in winter larger and longer-lived systems occur more frequently. MCSs occur more commonly in the afternoon, in phase with thunderstorm activity, but the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is small compared to that of observed thunderstorms. It is estimated that in the Southeast more than half of all precipitation and severe weather results from MCSs.

Geerts, Bart↗

Evaluation of Gust and Draft Velocities from Flights of P-61c Airplanes within Thunderstorms August 7, 1946 to August 13, 1946 at Orlando, Florida

This report presents the results obtained from gust and draft velocity measurements within thunderstorms for the period August 7, 1946 to August, 13, 1946 at Orlando Florida. In several of the surveys, indications of ambient air temperature were obtained from photo-observer records. These data are summarized in the report.

Tolefson, Harold B.↗

Constructing Data Albums for Significant Severe Weather Events

There is need in the research community for weather-related case studies to improve prediction of and recovery after convective thunderstorms that produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. One of the largest continuing challenges in any Earth Science investigation is the discovery of and access to useful science content from the increasingly large volumes of available Earth Science data. The Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville has developed a software system called Noesis 2.0 that can be used to produce Data Albums for weather events relevant to NASA Earth Science researchers. Noesis is an Internet search tool that combines relevant storm research, pictures and videos of an event or event aftermath, web pages containing news reports and official storm summaries, background information about damage, injuries, and deaths, and NASA datasets from field campaigns and satellites into a "one-stop shop" database. The Data Album concept has been previously applied to hurricane cases from 2010 to present. The objective of this paper is to extend that Hurricane Data Album concept to focus on development of an ontology for significant severe weather to aid in selecting appropriate NASA datasets for inclusion in a severe weather Data Album. Recent severe weather events in Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma will be analyzed as an example of how these events can be incorporated into a Data Album.

Greene, Ethan↗

Measurements of induced voltages and currents in a distribution power line and associated atmospheric parameters

The frequency and intensity of thunderstorms around the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has affected scheduled launch, landing, and other ground operations for many years. In order to protect against and provide safe working facilities, KSC has performed and hosted several studies on lightning phenomena. For the reasons mentioned above, KSC has established the Atmospheric Science Field Laboratory (ASFL). At these facilities KSC launches wire-towing rockets into thunderstorms to trigger natural lightning to the launch site. A program named Rocket Triggered Lightning Program (RTLP) is being conducted at the ASFL. This report calls for two of the experiments conducted in the summer 1988 Rocket Triggered Lightning Program. One experiment suspended an electric field mill over the launching areas from a balloon about 500 meters high to measure the space charges over the launching area. The other was to connect a waveform recorder to a nearby distribution power line to record currents and voltages wave forms induced by natural and triggered lightning.

Santiago-Perez, Julio↗

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 2. The Effect of GLM Instrument Threshold on Detection and Clustering

Abstract Lightning is measured from space using optical instruments that detect transient changes in the illumination of the cloud top. How much of the flash (if any) is recorded by the instrument depends on the instrument detection threshold. NOAA's Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) employs a dynamic threshold that varies across the imaging array and changes over time. This causes flashes in certain regions and at night to be recorded in greater detail than other flashes, and threshold inconsistencies will impose biases on all levels of GLM data products. In this study, we quantify the impact of the varying GLM threshold on event/group/flash detection, flash clustering, and gridded product generation by imposing artificial thresholds on the event data taken from a thunderstorm with a low instrument threshold (∼0.7 fJ). We find that even modest increases in threshold severely impact event (60% loss by 2 fJ, 90% loss by 10 fJ) and group (25% loss by 2 fJ, 81% loss by 10 fJ) detection by suppressing faint illumination of the cloud top from weak sources and scattering. Flash detection is impacted less by threshold increases (4% loss by 2 fJ), but reductions are still significant at higher thresholds (35% loss by 10 fJ, or 44% if single‐group flashes are removed). Undetected pulses cause individual flashes to be split and severely impact the construction of gridded products. All of these factors complicate the interpretation of GLM data, particularly when trended over time under a changing threshold.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗