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On the Solar Open Magnetic Flux Problem

The solar magnetic fields emerging from the photosphere into the chromosphere and corona are comprised of a combination of “closed” (field lines with both ends rooted at the Sun) and “open” (field lines with only one end at the Sun) fields. Since the early 2000’s, the magnitude of total unsigned open magnetic flux estimated by coronal models has been in significant disagreement with in situ spacecraft observations, especially during solar maximum. Estimates of total open unsigned magnetic flux using coronal hole observations (e.g., using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) or Helium (He) are in general agreement with the coronal model results and thus show similar disagreements with in situ observations. This paper provides a brief overview of the problem, summarizes the proposed explanations for the discrepancies, and presents results that strongly support the explanation that the discrepancy is due to dynamics at the open-closed boundary. These results are derived from determination of the total unsigned open magnetic flux, utilizing the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model at a particular spatial resolution and different field-line tracing methods. One of these methods produces excellent agreement with in situ observations. Our results imply that active regions residing near the boundaries of mid-latitude coronal holes are the primary source of the missing open flux. Furthermore, they resolve many of the seemingly contradictory facts that have made resolving the open-flux problem so difficult.

Charles Arge↗
NASA NTRS1991

The solar activity cycle

This review emphasizes observations of photospheric magnetic flux during cycle 21 (1976-1986) and how these measurements have been used to model the cyclic variability of the heliospheric magnetic field. Indices of solar activity are discussed in terms of their potential to figure in theoretical or empirical models. Other recent data, such as measurements of large-scale surface flows and information on the sun's internal rotation from helioseismology, as well as the magnetic flux observations, are considered in the context of Babcock's phenomenological model of the solar cycle.

Rabin, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probalistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to describe the radiation environment that can be expected at a specified confidence level. The task of the designer is then to choose a design that will operate in the model radiation environment. Probabilistic models have already been developed for solar proton events that describe the peak flux, event-integrated fluence and missionintegrated fluence. In addition a probabilistic model has been developed that describes the mission-integrated fluence for the Z>2 elemental spectra. This talk will focus on completing this suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 element

Adams, James H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Radiative Transfer Model for Climate Calculations

This paper describes a radiative transfer model developed to accurately predict the atmospheric radiant flux in both the infrared and the solar spectrum with a minimum of computational effort. We use a newly developed k-distribution model for both the thermal and solar parts of the spectrum. We employ a generalized two-stream approximation for the scattering by aerosol and clouds. To assess the accuracy of the model, the results are compared to other more detailed models for several standard cases in the solar and thermal spectrum. We perform several calculations focussing primarily on the question of absorption of solar radiation by gases and aerosols. We estimate the accuracy of the k-distribution to be approx. 1 W/sq m for the gaseous absorption in the solar spectrum. We estimate the accuracy of the two-stream method to be 3-12 W/sq m for the downward solar flux and 1-5 W/sq m for the upward solar flux at the top of atmosphere depending on the optical depth of the aerosol layer. We also show that the effect of ignoring aerosol absorption on the downward solar flux at the surface is 50 W/sq m for the TARFOX aerosol for an optical depth of 0.5 and 150 W/sq m for a highly absorbing mineral aerosol. Thus, we conclude that the uncertainty introduced by the aerosol solar radiative properties (and merely assuming some "representative" model) can be considerably larger than the error introduced by the use of a two-stream method.

Bergstrom, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Hydrocarbon photochemistry in the upper atmosphere of Jupiter

The hydrocarbon photochemistry in the upper atmosphere of Jupiter is investigated using a one-dimensional, photochemical-diffusive, and diurnally averaged model. The important chemical cycles and pathways among the major species are outlined and a standard model for the North Equatorial Belt region is examined in detail. It is found that several traditionally dominant chemical pathways among the C and C2 species are replaced in importance by cycles involving C-C4 species. The pressure and altitude profiles of mixing ratios for several observable hydrocarbon species are compared with available ultraviolet- and infrared-derived abundances. The results of sensitivity studies on the standard model with respect to variations in eddy diffusion profile, solar flux, atomic hydrogen influx, latitude, temperature, and important chemical reaction rates are presented. Measured and calculated airglow emissions of He at 584 angstroms and H at 1216 angstroms are also used to provide some constraints on the range of model parameters. The relevance of the model results to the upcoming Galileo mission is briefly discussed. The model is subject to considerable improvement; there is a great need for laboratory measurements of basic reaction rates and photodissociation quantum yields, even for such simple species as methylacetylene and allene. Until such laboratory measurements exist there will be considerable uncertainty in the understanding of the C3 and higher hydrocarbons in the atmospheres of the jovian planets.

NASA Discipline Number 52-20↗
NASA NTRS1984

Modelling Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations at Ultraviolet Wavelengths

Solar UV irradiance variations with solar activity are examined using a three component model of the CaII K chromospheric emission. This model, developed from ground based observations of the location, area and relative intensity of CaII K plage, in conjunction with measurements throughout solar cycle 21 of the full disc CaII K emission, includes the contributions to the ultraviolet flux from both plage and active network emission. The model successfully replicates changes in the Lyman alpha flux related to the 27 day rotation of solar plage, outbreaks (or rounds) of activity over periods of a year or more, and the growth and accumulation of active regions over the eleven year solar activity cycles. Estimates of the magnitude of the solar cycle variability of the UV emission between 200 and 300 nm are presented but cannot currently be verified by available observations.

Lean, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Prediction of the interplanetary magnetic field strength

A new model of the coronal and interplanetary magnetic field can predict both the interplanetary magnetic field strength and its polarity from measurements of the photospheric magnetic field. The model includes the effects of the large-scale horizontal electric currents flowing in the inner corona, of the warped heliospheric current sheet in the upper corona, and of volume currents flowing in the region where the solar wind plasma totally controls the magnetic field. The model matches the MHD solution for a simple dipole test case better than earlier source surface and current sheet models. The strength and polarity of the radial interplanetary magnetic field component predicted for quiet time samples in each year from 1977 to 1986 agree with observations made near the Earth's orbit better than the hybrid MHD-source surface model (Wang and Sheeley, 1988). The results raise the question of whether coronal holes are the only solar source of the interplantary magnetic field in the solar wind. If some interplanetary flux originates outside coronal holes, the model can match the observed field using the accepted 1.8 saturation correction factor for lambda 5250 A magnetograph observations. Requiring open flux to come exclusively from coronal holes requires and additional factor of two.

Zhao, Xuepu↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling tropical Pacific sea surface temperature with satellite-derived solar radiative forcing

Two independent datasets for the solar radiation at the surface derived from satellites are compared. The data derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is for the net solar radiation at the surface whereas the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data is for the downward flux only and was corrected with a space- and time-varying albedo. The ISCCP net flux is at all times higher than the ERBE flux. The difference can be divided into an offset that decreases with latitude and another component that correlates with high tropical cloud cover. With this latter exception the two datasets provide spatial patterns of solar flux that are very similar. A tropical Pacific Ocean model is forced with these two datasets and observed climatological winds. The upward heat flux is parameterized taking into account separately the longwave radiative, latent, and sensible heat fluxes. Best fit values for the uncertain parameters are found using an optimization procedure that seeks to minimize the difference between model and observed SST by varying the parameters within a reasonable range of uncertainty. The SST field the model produces with the best fit parameters is the best the model can do. If the differences between the model and data are larger than can be accounted for by remaining uncertainties in the heat flux parameterization and forcing data then the ocean model must be held to be at fault. Using this method of analysis, a fundamental model fault is identified. Inadequate treatment of mixed layer/entrainment processes in upwelling regions of the eastern tropical Pacific leads to a large and seasonally varying error in the model SST. Elsewhere the model SST is insufficiently different from observed to be able to identify model errors.

Seager, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1994

The study of coronal plasma structures and fluctuations with Faraday rotation measurements

We report dual-frequency, polarimetric measurements of Faraday rotation of extragalactic radio sources viewed through the solar corona. The observations were made at the Very Large Array in 1990 during solar maximum. Of the nine observed, an excess rotation measure of -12.6 rad/sq m was detected for one source (0010+005), which was observed at an elongation of about 9 solar radii. This measurement is in fair agreement with an a priori model rotation measure of -8.6 rad/sq m estimated from coronal potential field models and the electron density model of Paetzold et al. (1992). Our measurement provides a value for the coronal magnetic field strength at 9 solar radii given a knowledge of the magnetic field sector structure, of 12.5 +/- 2.3 mG. Rotation measurements of 0010+005 were made approximately once per hour over an 11 hr period. During this interval, a slow change of about 1 rad/sq m/hr in rotation measure was detected. Although we are not absolutely certain that this drift is not unremoved ionospheric Faraday rotation, extensive analysis of data from the other sources suggests that this is not the case (Sakurai & Spangler 1994). The very long timescale for this variation argues against the agency of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves, and we suggest occultation of 0010+005 by relatively static plasma structures in the corona. We filtered our rotation measure time series to search for variations on an hourly timescale, such as those reported by Hollweg et al. (1992), which could be attributed to coronal MHD waves. We were unable to detect such fluctuations and can report only an upper limit to the rms variation of 1.6 rad/sq m. This upper limit is of the same order, but slightly larger than the values typically reported by Hollweg et al. (1982). This upper limit to the rotation measure fluctuations limits the dimensionless wave amplitude (delta B)/B in the corona to be less than 0.7. Using the number, we estimate the MHD wave flux at the coronal base to be less than 1.6 x 10(exp 5) ergs/sq cm/s. This is less than the amount of wave energy flux required by wave-driven models of the solar wind. Finally, we discuss a number of ways in which such observations could be improved in the future.

Sakurai, Takayuki↗
NASA NTRS1986

An approach for verifying clear-sky radiation models with ERBS scanner measurements

A technique is proposed for validating radiation models using Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) top of the atmosphere longwave radiance exitance data. ERBS measures clear-sky fluxes in terms of reflected solar and emitted longwave radiation. The radiation model considered accounts for the effects of H2O, CO2, O3, CH4, and N2O. ERBS nighttime radiance data for the region 60 deg N to 60 deg S latitude for most of November 1984 are compared with radiances over 5/cm intervals predicted by the model by means of the Malkmus theory for transmittances for line absorption.

Ramanathan, V.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Surface Measurements of Solar Spectral Radiative Flux in the Cloud-Free Atmosphere

Recent studies (Charlock, et al.; Kato, et. al) have indicated a potential discrepancy between measured solar irradiance in the cloud-free atmosphere and model derived downwelling solar irradiance. These conclusions were based primarily on broadband integrated solar flux. Extinction (both absorption and scattering) phenomena, however, typically have spectral characteristics that would be present in moderate resolution (e.g., 10 nm) spectra, indicating the need for such measurements to thoroughly investigate the cause of any discrepancies. The 1996 Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Intensive Observation Period (IOP), held simultaneously with the NASA Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) Program, provided an opportunity for two simultaneous but independent measurements of moderate resolution solar spectral downwelling irradiance at the surface. The instruments were the NASA Ames Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer and the Analytical Spectral Devices, Inc., FieldSpecT-FR. Spectral and band integrated quantities from both sets of measurements will be presented, along with estimates of the downwelling solar irradiance from band model and line by line calculations, in an effort to determine the compatibility between measured and calculated solar irradiance in the cloud-free atmosphere.

Pilewskie, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1973

ERTS/Nimbus radiation environment information

The results of the ERTS/Nimbus satellite investigation of electron flux levels are presented. Flux calculations were made with the use of two electron environment models, both of which are static and describe the environment during the solar maximum conditions of October 1967. It is concluded that the construction of these models makes it possible to infer a change of the average quiet time electron flux levels as a function of the solar cycle.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere Model

This Technical Memorandum describes the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere Model-Version 2.0 (MET-V 2.0) and contains an explanation on the use of the computer program along with an example of the MET-V 2.0 model products. The MET-V 2.0 provides an update to the 1988 version of the model. It provides information on the total mass density, temperature, and individual species number densities for any altitude between 90 and 2,500 km as a function of latitude, longitude, time, and solar and geomagnetic activity. A description is given for use of estimated future 13-mo smoothed solar flux and geomagnetic index values as input to the model. Address technical questions on the MET-V 2.0 and associated computer program to Jerry K. Owens, Spaceflight Experiments Group, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (256-961-7576; e-mail Jerry.Owens@msfc.nasa.gov).

Owens, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS1983

Numerical simulations of loops heated to solar flare temperatures. I - Gasdynamics. II - X-ray and UV spectroscopy

The NRL's Dynamic Flux Tube Model is used to numerically simulate the dynamic response of a coronal magnetic loop to an energy input of the order encountered in solar flares. The coronal plasma is heated by the deposition of flare energy at the top of the loop to more than 10 million K, yielding a conduction front that moves toward the chromosphere, where the plasma is heated by the large downward conductive flux and ablates upward to the coronal part of the loop at velocities of a few hundred km/sec. The conduction front simultaneously produces chromospheric ablation and compresses the material ahead of it. With the aid of compressional instabilities, the compressed plasma grows throughout the flare heating phase, presenting a possible source of the flare optical continuum emission which is correlated with soft X-ray radiation. The observational consequences of rapidly heated loop gas dynamic processes are discussed. In the second part of this presentation, the dynamical calculation results previously obtained are used to predict the spectral line intensities, profiles and wavelengths of several X-ray lines and the UV line of Fe XXI at 1354.1 A. Three different viewing orientations of the loop are considered.

Cheng, C.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The solar cycle variation of ozone in the stratosphere inferred from Nimbus 7 and NOAA 11 satellites

The combined Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and NOAA 11 SBUV/2 ozone data, covering a period of more than a solar cycle (about 15 years), are used to study the UV response of ozone in the stratosphere. The study shows that about 2% change in total column ozone and about 5-7% change in ozone mixing ratio in the upper stratosphere (0.7 to 2 hPa) may be attributed to the change in the solar UV flux over a solar cycle. In the upper stratosphere, where photochemical processes are expected to play a major role, the measured solar cycle variation of ozone is significantly larger than inferred either from the photochemical models or from the ozone response to the 27-day solar UV modulation. For example, the observed solar cycle related change in ozone mixing ratio at 2 hPa is about 1% for 1% change in the solar UV flux near 200 nm. The inferred change in ozone from either the photochemical models or from the 27-day ozone-UV response is about a factor of 2-3 lower than this value.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The solar wind mass flux

One of the unexplained observations of the solar wind at 1 AU is the relative constancy of the solar wind mass flux. Calculations using a radiative energy balance model with a thermally driven wind suggest that this near constancy of the mass (particle) flux is due to two factors: (1) the role of inward conduction and radiation in cooling the corona, and (2) the finding that the particle flux is proportional to the gas pressure in the outer corona and beyond, where the solar wind flow becomes radial.

Withbroe, George L.↗