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At least 235 records · Page 13

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NASA NTRS2010

On Acoustic Source Specification for Rotor-Stator Interaction Noise Prediction

This paper describes the use of measured source data to assess the effects of acoustic source specification on rotor-stator interaction noise predictions. Specifically, the acoustic propagation and radiation portions of a recently developed coupled computational approach are used to predict tonal rotor-stator interaction noise from a benchmark configuration. In addition to the use of full measured data, randomization of source mode relative phases is also considered for specification of the acoustic source within the computational approach. Comparisons with sideline noise measurements are performed to investigate the effects of various source descriptions on both inlet and exhaust predictions. The inclusion of additional modal source content is shown to have a much greater influence on the inlet results. Reasonable agreement between predicted and measured levels is achieved for the inlet, as well as the exhaust when shear layer effects are taken into account. For the number of trials considered, phase randomized predictions follow statistical distributions similar to those found in previous statistical source investigations. The shape of the predicted directivity pattern relative to measurements also improved with phase randomization, having predicted levels generally within one standard deviation of the measured levels.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Alpha-Voltaic Sources Using Diamond as Conversion Medium

A family of proposed miniature sources of power would exploit the direct conversion of the kinetic energy of a particles into electricity in diamond semiconductor diodes. These power sources would function over a wide range of temperatures encountered in terrestrial and outer-space environments. These sources are expected to have operational lifetimes of 10 to 20 years and energy conversion efficiencies >35 percent. A power source according to the proposal would include a pair of devices like that shown in the figure. Each device would contain Schottky and p/n diode devices made from high-band-gap, radiation-hard diamond substrates. The n and p layers in the diode portion would be doped sparsely (<1014 cm-3) in order to maximize the volume of the depletion region and thereby maximize efficiency. The diode layers would be supported by an undoped diamond substrate. The source of a particles would be a thin film of 244Cm (half-life 18 years) sandwiched between the two paired devices. The sandwich arrangement would force almost every a particle to go through the active volume of at least one of the devices. Typical a particle track lengths in the devices would range from 20 to 30 microns. The a particles would be made to stop only in the undoped substrates to prevent damage to the crystalline structures of the diode portions. The overall dimensions of a typical source are expected to be about 2 by 2 by 1 mm. Assuming an initial 244Cm mass of 20 mg, the estimated initial output of the source is 20 mW (a current of 20 mA at a potential of 1 V).

Patel, Jagadish U.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Loop Heat Pipe Transient Behavior Using Heat Source Temperature for Set Point Control with Thermoelectric Converter on Reservoir

The LHP operating temperature is governed by the saturation temperature of its reservoir. Controlling the reservoir saturation temperature is commonly done by cold biasing the reservoir and using electrical heaters to provide the required control power. With this method, the loop operating temperature can be controlled within 0.5K or better. However, because the thermal resistance that exists between the heat source and the LHP evaporator, the heat source temperature will vary with its heat output even if the LHP operating temperature is kept constant. Since maintaining a constant heat source temperature is of most interest, a question often raised is whether the heat source temperature can be used for LHP set point temperature control. A test program with a miniature LHP was carried out to investigate the effects on the LHP operation when the control temperature sensor was placed on the heat source instead of the reservoir. In these tests, the LHP reservoir was cold-biased and was heated by a control heater. Test results show that it was feasible to use the heat source temperature for feedback control of the LHP operation. In particular, when a thermoelectric converter was used as the reservoir control heater, the heat source temperature could be maintained within a tight range using a proportional-integral-derivative or on/off control algorithm. Moreover, because the TEC could provide both heating and cooling to the reservoir, temperature oscillations during fast transients such as loop startup could be eliminated or substantially reduced when compared to using an electrical heater as the control heater.

Ku, Jentung↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development and Performance of a Filter Radiometer Monitor System for Integrating Sphere Sources

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Radiometric Calibration Laboratory (RCL) maintains several large integrating sphere sources covering the visible to the shortwave infrared wavelength range. Two critical, functional requirements of an integrating sphere source are short and long-term operational stability and repeatability. Monitoring the source is essential in determining the origin of systemic errors, thus increasing confidence in source performance and quantifying repeatability. If monitor data falls outside the established parameters, this could be an indication that the source requires maintenance or re-calibration against the National Institute of Science and Technology (NIST) irradiance standard. The GSFC RCL has developed a Filter Radiometer Monitoring System (FRMS) to continuously monitor the performance of its integrating sphere calibration sources in the 400 to 2400nm region. Sphere output change mechanisms include lamp aging, coating (e.g. BaSO4) deterioration, and ambient water vapor level. The Filter Radiometer Monitor System (FRMS) wavelength bands are selected to quantify changes caused by these mechanisms. The FRMS design and operation are presented, as well as data from monitoring four of the RCL s integrating sphere sources.

Ding, Leibo↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Empirical Temperature Variance Source Model in Heated Jets

An acoustic analogy approach is implemented that models the sources of jet noise in heated jets. The equivalent sources of turbulent mixing noise are recognized as the differences between the fluctuating and Favre-averaged Reynolds stresses and enthalpy fluxes. While in a conventional acoustic analogy only Reynolds stress components are scrutinized for their noise generation properties, it is now accepted that a comprehensive source model should include the additional entropy source term. Following Goldstein s generalized acoustic analogy, the set of Euler equations are divided into two sets of equations that govern a non-radiating base flow plus its residual components. When the base flow is considered as a locally parallel mean flow, the residual equations may be rearranged to form an inhomogeneous third-order wave equation. A general solution is written subsequently using a Green s function method while all non-linear terms are treated as the equivalent sources of aerodynamic sound and are modeled accordingly. In a previous study, a specialized Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver was implemented to compute the variance of thermal fluctuations that determine the enthalpy flux source strength. The main objective here is to present an empirical model capable of providing a reasonable estimate of the stagnation temperature variance in a jet. Such a model is parameterized as a function of the mean stagnation temperature gradient in the jet, and is evaluated using commonly available RANS solvers. The ensuing thermal source distribution is compared with measurements as well as computational result from a dedicated RANS solver that employs an enthalpy variance and dissipation rate model. Turbulent mixing noise predictions are presented for a wide range of jet temperature ratios from 1.0 to 3.20.

Khavaran, Abbas↗

NASA NTRS2012

Possible Sources for Methane and C2-C5 Organics in the Plume of Enceladus

In this paper we consider six possible sources of CH4 and other low-mass (C2 - C5) organics in the plume of Enceladus: initial endowments of cometary organics or Titan- like tholin, in situ production by Fisher-Tropsch type reactions, water-rock reactions, or microbiology, and thermogenesis from heavier organics already present. We report on new laboratory results C2 hydrocarbons released on thermogenesis of laboratory tholin and Fisher-Tropsch type synthesis. Tholin heating produced ratios of CH4/C2H4 and CH4/C2H6 of about 2 for temperatures up to 450 C and about 6 for a temperature of 650 C. Low pressure Fisher-Tropsch type experiments produced CH4/C2H4 of approx 1.5, similar to previous results. No C2H2 was produced by either process. Tests of gas production by four strains of methanogens confirmed the absence of any detectable production of non-methane hydrocarbons. Cometary endowment, Fisher-Tropsch type synthesis, and Titan-like tholin incorporation could be primary inputs of organics and subsequent thermal processing of any of these all are possible sources of low mass organics in the plume. Biological production and water-rock reactions are an alternative source of CH4. Neither water-- ]rock reactions or thermal processing of biomass could be a source C2 . C5 organics due to the low interior pressures. The confirmed detection of CO and C2H2 in the plume of Enceladus would provide an important constraint on sources as we have identified no process . other than the initial volatile component of cometary organics which can supply these gases. Precise determination of the relative concentrations of C1 - C5 hydrocarbons may provide additional constraints on sources but a detailed isotopic analysis of C and H in these organics and a search for amino acids constitute the next important steps in resolving the sources of the organics in Enceladus' plume.

McKay, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2014

Preliminary Analysis: Am-241 RHU/TEG Electric Power Source for Nanosatellites

The Februay 2013 Space Works Commercial report indicates a strong increase in nano/microsatellite (1-50 kg) launch demand globally in future years. Nanosatellites (NanoSats) are small spacecraft in the 1-10 kg range, which present a simple, low-cost option for developing quickly-deployable satellites. CubeSats, a special category of NanoSats, are even being considered for interplanetary missions. However, the small dimensions of CubeSats and the limited mass of the NanoSat class in general place limits of capability on their electrical power systems (especially where typical power sources such as solar panels are considered) and stored energy reserves; restricting the power budget and overall functionality. For example, leveraging NanoSat clusters for computationally intensive problems that are solved collectively becomes more challenging with power related restrictions on communication and data-processing. Further, interplanetary missions that would take NanoSats far from the sun, make the use of solar panels less effective as a power source as their required area would become quite large. To overcome these limitations, americium 241 (Am-241) has been suggested as a low power source option. The Idaho National Laboratory, Center for Space Nuclear Research reports that:  (Production) requires small quantities of isotope - 62.5 g of Pu-238; 250 g Am- 241 (for 5 We); Am-241 is available at around 1 kg/yr commercially; Am-241 produces 59 kev gammas which are stopped readily by tungsten so the radiation field is very low. Whereby, an Am-241 source could be placed in among the instruments and the waste heat used to heat the platform; and  amounts of isotope are so low that launch approval may be easier, especially with tungsten encapsulation. As further reported, Am-241 has a half-life that is approximately five times greater than that of Pu- 238 and it has been determined that the neutron yield of a 241-AmO(sub 2) source is approximately an order of magnitude lower than that of a 238-PuO(sub 2) source of equal mass and degree of (sup 16)O enrichment. Also it has been demonstrated that shielded heat sources fuelled by oxygen-enriched 238-PuO(sub 2) have masses that are up to 10 times greater than those fuelled by oxygenenriched 241-AmO(sub 2) with equivalent thermal power outputs and neutron dose rates at 1 m radii. For these reasons, Am-241 is well suited to missions that demand long duration electrical power output, such as deep spaceflight missions and similar missions that use radiation-hard electronics and instrumentation that are less susceptible to neutron radiation damage.

Robertson, Glen A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Identification of Noise Sources During Rocket Engine Test Firings and a Rocket Launch Using a Microphone Phased-Array

A 70 microphone, 10-foot by 10-foot, microphone phased array was built for use in the harsh environment of rocket launches. The array was setup at NASA Wallops launch pad 0A during a static test firing of Orbital Sciences' Antares engines, and again during the first launch of the Antares vehicle. It was placed 400 feet away from the pad, and was hoisted on a scissor lift 40 feet above ground. The data sets provided unprecedented insight into rocket noise sources. The duct exit was found to be the primary source during the static test firing; the large amount of water injected beneath the nozzle exit and inside the plume duct quenched all other sources. The maps of the noise sources during launch were found to be time-dependent. As the engines came to full power and became louder, the primary source switched from the duct inlet to the duct exit. Further elevation of the vehicle caused spilling of the hot plume, resulting in a distributed noise map covering most of the pad. As the entire plume emerged from the duct, and the ondeck water system came to full power, the plume itself became the loudest noise source. These maps of the noise sources provide vital insight for optimization of sound suppression systems for future Antares launches.

acoustics↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Measurement of the Millimeter Emission and the Sunyaev-zel'dovich Effect Associated with Low-frequency Radio Sources

We present a statistical analysis of the millimeter-wavelength properties of 1.4 GHz-selected sources and a detection of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect associated with the halos that host them. The Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) has conducted a survey at 148 GHz, 218 GHz and 277 GHz along the celestial equator. Using samples of radio sources selected at 1.4 GHz from the Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty-Centimeters (FIRST) Survey and the National Radio Astronomy Observatory Very Large Array Sky Survey (NVSS), we measure the stacked 148, 218 and 277 GHz flux densities for sources with 1.4 GHz flux densities ranging from 5 to 200 mJy. At these flux densities, the radio source population is dominated by active galactic nuclei (AGN), with both steep and at spectrum populations, which have combined radio-to-millimeter spectral indices ranging from 0.5 to 0.95, reecting the prevalence of steep spectrum sources at high flux densities and the presence of at spectrum sources at lower flux densities. The thermal Sunyaev-Zelapos;dovich (SZ) eect associated with the halos that host the AGN is detected at the 5 level through its spectral signature. When we compare the SZ eect with weak lensing measurements of radio galaxies, we find that the relation between the two is consistent with that measured by Planck for local bright galaxies. We present a detection of the SZ eect in some of the lowest mass halos (average M(sub 200) approx. equals 10(exp 13) solar M h(sup-1) (sub 70) ) studied to date. This detection is particularly important in the context of galaxy evolution models, as it confirms that galaxies with radio AGN also typically support hot gaseous halos. With Herschel* observations, we show that the SZ detection is not significantly contaminated by dusty galaxies or by dust associated with the AGN or galaxies hosting the AGN. We show that 5 mJy < S(sub 1:4) < 200 mJy radio sources contribute l(l +1)C(sub l)/(2 pi ) = 0:37+/- 0:03 micro K(exp 2) to the angular power spectrum at l = 3000 at 148 GHz, after accounting for the SZ effect associated with their host halos.

galaxies↗

NASA NTRS2013

1SXPS: A Deep Swift X-Ray Telescope Point Source Catalog with Light Curves and Spectra

We present the 1SXPS (Swift-XRT point source) catalog of 151,524 X-ray point sources detected by the Swift-XRT in 8 yr of operation. The catalog covers 1905 sq deg distributed approximately uniformly on the sky. We analyze the data in two ways. First we consider all observations individually, for which we have a typical sensitivity of approximately 3 × 10(exp −13) erg cm(exp −2) s(exp −1) (0.3-10 keV). Then we co-add all data covering the same location on the sky: these images have a typical sensitivity of approximately 9 × 10(exp −14) erg cm(exp −2) s(exp −1) (0.3-10 keV). Our sky coverage is nearly 2.5 times that of 3XMM-DR4, although the catalog is a factor of approximately 1.5 less sensitive. The median position error is 5.5 (90% confidence), including systematics. Our source detection method improves on that used in previous X-ray Telescope (XRT) catalogs and we report greater than 68,000 new X-ray sources. The goals and observing strategy of the Swift satellite allow us to probe source variability on multiple timescales, and we find approximately 30,000 variable objects in our catalog. For every source we give positions, fluxes, time series (in four energy bands and two hardness ratios), estimates of the spectral properties, spectra and spectral fits for the brightest sources, and variability probabilities in multiple energy bands and timescales.

telescope↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Second LBA Calibrator Survey of Southern Compact Extragalactic Radio Sources – LCS2

We present the second catalogue of accurate positions and correlated flux densities for 1100 compact extragalactic radio sources that were not observed before 2008 at high angular resolution. The catalogue spans the declination range [-90◦, -30◦] and was constructed from 19 24-h VLBI observing sessions with the Australian Long Baseline Array at 8.3 GHz. The catalogue presents the final part of the program that was started in 2008. The goals of that campaign were (1) to extend the number of compact radio sources with precise coordinates and measure their correlated flux densities, which can be used for phase referencing very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations, geodetic VLBI, search for sources with significant offsets with respect to Gaia positions, and space navigation; (2) to extend the complete flux-limited sample of compact extragalactic sources to the Southern hemisphere; and (3) to investigate the parsec-scale properties of sources from the high-frequency AT20G survey. The median uncertainty of the source positions is 3.5 mas. As a result of this VLBI campaign, the number of compact radio sources south of declination -40◦ that have measured VLBI-correlated flux densities and positions known to milliarcsecond accuracy has increased by over a factor of 6.

Petrov, Leonid↗

NASA NTRS2020

Accretion-Driven Sources in Spatially Resolved Lyα Emitters

Lyα emission is a standard tracer of starburst galaxies at high redshift. However, a number of local Lyα emitters (LAEs) are X-ray sources, suggesting a possible origin of Lyα photons other than young, hot stars, and which may be active at much later ages relative to the parent starburst. Resolved, nearby LAEs offer the opportunity to discriminate between diffuse X-ray emission arising from supernova-heated gas, high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs), or low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (LLAGN). We examine archival X-ray imaging from Chandra and XMM-Newton for 11 galaxies with spatially resolved Lyα imaging to determine the luminosity, morphology, and spectral hardness of the X-ray sources. The data are consistent with 9 of the 12, bright Lyα sources being driven by luminous, >1040 erg s-1 X-ray sources. Half of the eight Chandra sources are unresolved. The data suggest that nuclear activity, whether from LLAGN or nuclear starbursts, may play an important role in Lyα emission. Our results also suggest a significant link between Lyα emission and HMXBs, ultraluminous X-ray sources, and/or LLAGN, which would imply that Lyα may be generated over timescales 1–2 orders of magnitude longer than produced by photoionization from OB stars. This highlights a critical need to quantify the relative contributions of different sources across cosmic time, to interpret Lyα observations and the resulting properties of distant galaxies.

Benjamin Dittenber↗

NASA NTRS2020

2SXPS: An Improved and Expanded Swift X-Ray Telescope Point-source Catalog

We present the 2SXPS (Swift-XRT Point Source) catalog, containing 206,335 point sources detected by the Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT) in the 0.3–10 keV energy range. This catalog represents a significant improvement over 1SXPS, with double the sky coverage (now 3790 deg2), and several significant developments in source detection and classification. In particular, we present for the first time techniques to model the effect of stray light—significantly reducing the number of spurious sources detected. These techniques will be very important for future, large effective area X-ray missions, such as the forthcoming Athena X-ray observatory. We also present a new model of the XRT point-spread function and a method for correctly localizing and characterizing piled-up sources. We provide light curves—in four energy bands, two hardness ratios, and two binning timescales—for every source, and from these deduce that over 80,000 of the sources in 2SXPS are variable in at least one band or hardness ratio. The catalog data can be queried or downloaded via a web interface at https://www.swift.ac.uk/2SXPS, via HEASARC, or in Vizier (IX/58).

Catalogs↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiplanar Synthetic Arrays and Their Application to Full-Scale Landing Gear Noise Source Identification

Identification and quantification of noise sources generated by the landing gears of large civil transports are critical for the development of viable abatement technologies that can be applied locally to affect solely the source regions. Leveraging validated computational data sets obtained from airframe noise simulations of a full-scale B777-300ER aircraft, a frame-work based on multiplanar synthetic arrays was developed to examine landing gear sources. The position of the arrays relative to the aircraft nose or main landing gears, the number of microphones in each array, and their distribution pattern were judiciously selected to provide adequate spatial resolution of the sources in the primary flyover, sideline, and upstream directions while maintaining reasonable signal-to-noise ratio and beamwidth over a wide frequency range. Overall, seven synthetic arrays with 800 microphones each, for a total of 5,600 microphones, were used in the framework. Fully synchronous synthetic pressure records at each microphone location were obtained from the simulated data sets via a Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings integral approach, with flow quantities on a permeable data surface enclosing the source regions used as input. Various applications of synthetic multiplanar arrays to acoustic data analysis are presented; the advantages of the framework in properly resolving and identifying the B777 landing gear sources is demonstrated by comparing three-dimensional source distribution maps with those obtained from a synthetic version of the ground-based microphone array used during flight tests of the same aircraft.

airframe noise↗

NASA NTRS2014

Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes controlling them.

Methane↗

NASA NTRS2017

Embracing Open Source for NASA's Earth Science Data Systems

The overarching purpose of NASAs Earth Science program is to develop a scientific understanding of Earth as a system. Scientific knowledge is most robust and actionable when resulting from transparent, traceable, and reproducible methods. Reproducibility includes open access to the data as well as the software used to arrive at results. Additionally, software that is custom-developed for NASA should be open to the greatest degree possible, to enable re-use across Federal agencies, reduce overall costs to the government, remove barriers to innovation, and promote consistency through the use of uniform standards. Finally, Open Source Software (OSS) practices facilitate collaboration between agencies and the private sector. To best meet these ends, NASAs Earth Science Division promotes the full and open sharing of not only all data, metadata, products, information, documentation, models, images, and research results but also the source code used to generate, manipulate and analyze them. This talk focuses on the challenges to open sourcing NASA developed software within ESD and the growing pains associated with establishing policies running the gamut of tracking issues, properly documenting build processes, engaging the open source community, maintaining internal compliance, and accepting contributions from external sources. This talk also covers the adoption of existing open source technologies and standards to enhance our custom solutions and our contributions back to the community. Finally, we will be introducing the most recent OSS contributions from NASA Earth Science program and promoting these projects for wider community review and adoption.

Earth Science↗

NASA NTRS2022

Sources, Transport and Visibility Impact of Ambient Submicrometer Particle Size Distributions in an Urban Area of Central Taiwan

This study applied positive matrix factorization (PMF) to identify the sources of size-resolved submicrometer (10–1000 nm) particles and quantify their contributions to impaired visibility based on the particle number size distributions (PNSDs), aerosol light extinction (b p ), air pollutants (PM 10 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , O 3 , and NO), and meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and ultraviolet index) measured hourly over an urban basin in central Taiwan between 2017 and 2021. The transport of source-specific PNSDs was evaluated with wind and back trajectory analyses. The PMF revealed six sources to the total particle number (TPN), surface (TPS), volume (TPV), and b p . Factor 1 (F1), the key contributor to TPN (35.0 %), represented nucleation (<25 nm) particles associated with fresh traffic emission and secondary new particle formation, which were transported from the west-southwest by stronger winds (>2.2 m s -1 ). F2 represented the large Aitken (50–100 nm) particles transported regionally via northerly winds, whereas F3 represented large accumulation (300–1000 nm) particles, which showed elevated concentrations under stagnant conditions (<1.1 m s −1 ). F4 represented small Aitken (25–50 nm) particles arising from the growth and transport of the nucleation particles (F1) via west-southwesterly winds. F5 represented large Aitken particles originating from combustion-related SO 2 sources and carried by west-northwesterly winds. F6 represented small accumulation (100–300 nm) particles emitted both by local sources and by the remote SO 2 sources found for F5. Overall, large accumulation particles (F3) played the greatest role in determining the TPV (66.4 %) and TPS (34.8 %), and their contribution to bp increased markedly from 17.3 % to 40.7 % as visibility decreased, indicating that TPV and TPS are better metrics than TPN for estimating b p . Furthermore, slow-moving air masses—and therefore stagnant conditions—facilitate the build-up of accumulation mode particles (F3 + F6), resulting in the poorest visibility.

source apportionment↗

NASA NTRS2024

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗