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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Understanding of Cloud Microphysical Processes and Aerosol Indirect Effects in High-Latitude Mixed-Phase Clouds by Linking ARM Measurements with Climate Model Simulations (Final Report)

The key objectives of this project were to advance our understanding of cloud microphysical characteristics and aerosol indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds in high latitudes. To improve the representation of ice and mixed-phase clouds in Earth System Models (ESMs), we propose an integrated observation and modeling study of cloud macro- and microphysical properties, including spatial heterogeneities, mass partitioning between ice crystals and supercooled liquid water, effects of ice nucleating particles (INPs), and efficiency of secondary ice production (SIP), etc. Specifically, we took four main approaches in this project: (1) examining macro- and microphysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds based on in-situ and ground-based observations from multiple field campaigns funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, including the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), Ice Nucleating Particle Sources at Oliktok Point (INPOP), ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS), and Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE); (2) evaluating the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations based on observations, particularly for ice and mixed-phase cloud microphysical properties; (3) examining the impacts of INPs on ice and mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, a series of comparisons were conducted using observations over the Arctic, Southern Ocean, and Antarctica, including comparisons between the lower and higher southern latitudes as well as comparisons between the northern and southern hemispheres. In addition, aerosol indirect effects from distinct sources of dust particles were examined; and (4) investigating the impacts of SIP. Ultimately, these results helped to improve cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interaction parameterizations in the E3SM model. Overall, the project provided improved understanding regarding various factors, including thermodynamic, dynamic, and aerosol conditions, on the micro- and macrophysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds in the high latitudes. Resulting analysis helped to provide an improved physical basis for refining the current cloud microphysics parameterizations related to ice and mixed-phase clouds in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Vertical Patterns in Chlorophyll-A Derived From A Data Assimilating Model of Satellite-Based Ocean Color

Satellite-based sensors of ocean color have become the primary tool to infer changes in surface chlorophyll, while BGC-Argo floats are now filling the information gap at depth. Here we use BGC-Argo data to assess depth-resolved information on chlorophyll-a derived from an ocean biogeochemical model constrained by the assimilation of surface ocean color remote sensing. The data-assimilating model replicates well the general seasonality and meridional gradients in surface and depth-resolved chlorophyll-a inferred from the float array in the Southern Ocean. On average, the model tends to overestimate float-based chlorophyll, particularly at times and locations of high productivity such as the beginning of the spring bloom, subtropical deep chlorophyll maxima, and non-iron limited regions of the Southern Ocean. The highest model RMSE in the upper 50 m with respect to the float array is of 0.6 mg Chl m −3 , which should allow the detection of seasonal changes in float-based biomass (varying between 0.01 and >1 mg Chl m −3 ) but might hinder the identification of subtle changes in chlorophyll at narrow local scales. Both model and float profiling data show good agreement with in situ data from station ALOHA, with model estimates showing a slight accuracy edge in inferring depth-resolved observations. Uncertainties in float bio-optical estimates impede their use as a reliable benchmark for validation, but the general qualitative agreement between model and float data provides confidence in the ability of model to replicate biogeochemical features below the surface, where data is not directly constrained by the assimilation of satellite ocean color.

Lionel A Quintero↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Changes to the Atmospheric Soluble Iron Deposition Flux on Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles in the Anthropocene

Abstract Iron can be a growth‐limiting nutrient for phytoplankton, modifying rates of net primary production, nitrogen fixation, and carbon export ‐ highlighting the importance of new iron inputs from the atmosphere. The bioavailable iron fraction depends on the emission source and the dissolution during transport. The impacts of anthropogenic combustion and land use change on emissions from industrial, domestic, shipping, desert, and wildfire sources suggest that Northern Hemisphere soluble iron deposition has likely been enhanced between 2% and 68% over the Industrial Era. If policy and climate follow the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 trajectory, then results suggest that Southern Ocean (>30°S) soluble iron deposition would be enhanced between 63% and 95% by 2100. Marine net primary productivity and carbon export within the open ocean are most sensitive to changes in soluble iron deposition in the Southern Hemisphere; this is predominantly driven by fire rather than dust iron sources. Changes in iron deposition cause large perturbations to the marine nitrogen cycle, up to 70% increase in denitrification and 15% increase in nitrogen fixation, but only modestly impacts the carbon cycle and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (1–3 ppm). Regionally, primary productivity increases due to increased iron deposition are often compensated by offsetting decreases downstream corresponding to equivalent changes in the rate of phytoplankton macronutrient uptake, particularly in the equatorial Pacific. These effects are weaker in the Southern Ocean, suggesting that changes in iron deposition in this region dominates the global carbon cycle and climate response.

Hamilton, Douglas S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Partition between supercooled liquid droplets and ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds based on airborne in situ observations

Abstract. The onset of ice nucleation in mixed-phase clouds determines the lifetime and microphysical properties of ice clouds. In this work, we develop a novel method that differentiates between various phases of mixed-phase clouds, such as clouds dominated by pure liquid or pure ice segments, compared with those having ice crystals surrounded by supercooled liquid water droplets or vice versa. Using this method, we examine the relationship between the macrophysical and microphysical properties of Southern Ocean mixed-phase clouds at −40 to 0 °C (e.g. stratiform and cumuliform clouds) based on the in situ aircraft-based observations during the US National Science Foundation Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) flight campaign. The results show that the exchange between supercooled liquid water and ice crystals from a macrophysical perspective, represented by the increasing spatial ratio of regions containing ice crystals relative to the total in-cloud region (defined as ice spatial ratio), is positively correlated with the phase exchange from a microphysical perspective, represented by the increasing ice water content (IWC), decreasing liquid water content (LWC), increasing ice mass fraction, and increasing ice particle number fraction (IPNF). The mass exchange between liquid and ice becomes more significant during phase 3 when pure ice cloud regions (ICRs) start to appear. Occurrence frequencies of cloud thermodynamic phases show a significant phase change from liquid to ice at a similar temperature (i.e. −17.5 °C) among three types of definitions of mixed-phase clouds based on ice spatial ratio, ice mass fraction, or IPNF. Aerosol indirect effects are quantified for different phases using number concentrations of aerosols greater than 100 or 500 nm (N>100 and N>500, respectively). N>500 shows stronger positive correlations with ice spatial ratios compared with N>100. This result indicates that larger aerosols potentially contain ice-nucleating particles (INPs), which facilitate the formation of ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds. The impact of N>500 is also more significant in phase 2 when ice crystals just start to appear in the mixed phase compared with phase 3 when pure ICRs have formed, possibly due to the competing aerosol indirect effects on primary and secondary ice production in phase 3. The thermodynamic and dynamic conditions are quantified for each phase. The results show stronger in-cloud turbulence and higher updraughts in phases 2 and 3 when liquid and ice coexist compared with pure liquid or ice (phases 1 and 4, respectively). The highest updraughts and turbulence are seen in phase 3 when supercooled liquid droplets are surrounded by ice crystals. These results indicate both updraughts and turbulence support the maintenance of supercooled liquid water amongst ice crystals. Overall, these results illustrate the varying effects of aerosols, thermodynamics, and dynamics through various stages of mixed-phase cloud evolution based on this new method that categorizes cloud phases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate

Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high-latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high-emission scenario over the 21 st -century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies—particularly in the high-latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non-negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate.

Gorte, Tessa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Freshwater Forcing of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM

Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS-E2.1-G (a CMIP6 model) simulations forced with historical estimates of anomalous freshwater, in addition to other climate forcings, from 1990 through 2019. In this ensemble there are detectable differences in zonal-mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and in regional sea level around Antarctica and in the western North Atlantic. These impacts mostly improve the model's representation of historical changes, including reversing the forced trends in Southern Ocean surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice. The changes in SST may have implications for estimates of the SST pattern effect on climate sensitivity and for cloud feedbacks. We conclude that the changes are sufficiently large that model groups should strive to include more accurate estimates of these drivers in all-forcing historical simulations in future coupled model intercomparisons.

Ice sheet↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biological enhancement of cloud droplet concentrations observed off East Antarctica

Abstract The impact that biogenic emissions have on aerosol-cloud interactions across the Southern Ocean is poorly quantified. Here we use satellite and ship observations during austral summer to study these interactions. We present observational evidence that biogenic aerosols increase cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplet number concentrations over the Southern Ocean off East Antarctica, coinciding with very low concentrations of ice-nucleating particles and higher occurrences of supercooled liquid-containing low-level clouds.

Mallet, Marc D.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Towards an Improved Understanding of the Antarctic Coastal Zone and Its Contribution to Future Global Sea Level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate and sea level. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the AIS, the Southern Ocean and their global connections in the coming centuries. The AIS remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, and is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography data sets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation data set of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and improving predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗
DOE OSTI2025

Genome-resolved biogeography of Phaeocystales, cosmopolitan bloom-forming algae

Phaeocystales, comprising the genus Phaeocystis and an uncharacterized sister lineage, are nanoplanktonic haptophytes widespread in the global ocean. Several species form mucilaginous colonies and influence key biogeochemical cycles, yet their underlying diversity and ecological strategies remain underexplored. Here, we present new genomic data from 13 strains, including three high-quality reference genomes (N50 > 30 kbp), and integrate previous metagenome-assembled genomes to resolve a robust phylogeny. Divergence timing of P. antarctica aligns with Miocene cooling and Southern Ocean isolation. Genomic traits reveal metabolic flexibility, including mixotrophic nitrogen acquisition in temperate waters and gene expansions linked to polar nutrient adaptation. Concordantly, transcriptomic comparisons between temperate and polar Phaeocystis suggest Southern Ocean populations experience iron and B12 limitation. We also identify signatures of horizontal gene transfer and endogenous giant virus/virophage insertions. Together, these findings highlight Phaeocystales as an ecologically versatile and geographically widespread lineage shaped by evolutionary innovation and adaptation to contrasting environmental stressors.

Füssy, Zoltán↗
NASA NTRS1985

Tropical upper tropospheric motion field

Upper tropospheric cloud motion vectors and commercial aircraft wind reports have enabled a detailed definition of the motion field. These two data sets have enhanced our observational capability since the launch of 4 to 5 geostationary satellites around the globe and the implementation of the ASDAR program. A sample is illustrated of recent commercial aircraft wind reports at the 300, 250, and 200 mb surfaces over parts of the Pacific Ocean, North America, and Atlantic Ocean. This data coverage is impressive. The rms difference between these data and those obtained from rawinsonde ascents (colocated) is around + or - 4 m/s. In a recent study of the cloud winds, from geostationary satellites, Johnson (1984) noted almost 15 m/s vector wind differences between estimates from GMS, GOES, and METEOSAT with respect to the rawinsonde observations. These results are illustrated based on the assessment of Johnson (1984). Overall, the commercial aircraft winds are the more accurate of these two observing systems. However, it is apparent that because of the sparcity of airline routes across southern oceans, one has to rely rather heavily on the cloud winds as a primary data source over the tropical southern oceans. The operational rawinsonde coverage over the tropics is generally very poor. The overall data coverage based primarily on the collections at the ECWMF are shown.

Krishnamurti, T. N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2.0

First release of version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. The atmosphere component remains EAM. Major changes since version 1 include: all column-physics parameterizations are computed on a separate grid that has approximately half the number of points of the dynamics grid, a new nonhydrostatic dynamical core (running in hydrostatic mode) with semi-Lagrangian tracer transport, CLUBB updated from v1 to v2, a new convective trigger (dCAPE/ULL) based on the dynamic Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) (dCAPE) and the Unrestricted Launch Level (ULL) concepts is used in ZM. minimum cloud droplet number changed, gravity wave drag energy conservation fixed and new tunings used, dust emission size distribution changed to emit more coarse dust particles The land component is still ELM. Major changes since version 1 include: using SNICAR-AD for radiation in snow to match the sea-ice model and fixing bugs in snow compaction and water state calculation. The ocean component remains MPAS-ocean. Major change since version 1 include: Redi isopycnal mixing has been updated, tested, and tuned in combination with the Gent-McWilliams parameterization, a sign error was fixed in the 3rd-order flux routines, the mesh used in low-resolution coupled cases was modified and the time steps adjusted, new regionally refined meshes were created, one focused on North America and another on the Southern Ocean, including ice shelf cavities. The sea-ice component remains MPAS-seaice. Major changes since version 1 include: A new heat- and freshwater-conserving coupling of frazil ice, turning off of SSH filtering, addition of SNICAR-AD and snow grain aging. The land-ice component remains MPAS-Albany-landIce (MALI) and is a static ice sheet. There is more out-of-the-box support for cryosphere configurations including the new regionally refined configuration around Antarctica with ice shelf cavities. The river model is MOSART. The half-degree river mesh was redone so it no longer treats Black and Caspian seas as ocean. The coupler remains cpl7/MCT. Major changes since version 1 include handling of ice shelf melt fluxes (heat / freshwater exchange with the ocean), and data icebergs. All components allow regional refinement of their meshes and two separate example of refinement, one in and around North America and one around Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, are provided.

E3SM Project, DOE↗
NASA NTRS1990

The global distribution of f/H and the barotropic response of the ocean

The barotropic response of the ocean over smoothly varying topography is directly related to the potential vorticity gradient (PVG). A global estimate of f/H and PVG has been constructed from a high-resolution digital topographic data base. Four different regimes of the barotropic response of the ocean are suggested by these maps. (1) In the tropical latitudes from 20 deg S to 20 deg N, the response will be similar to a flat-bottom Sverdrup regime. (2) In midlatitudes, north of 30 deg S, the response will be quasi-stationary, weak, and dominated by nonlocal forcing. (3) In a number of small regions throughout the midlatitudes in both hemispheres, the local response should be amplified; and wavelike motions may occur over a broader bandwidth of frequencies. (4) South of 30 deg S, the midocean ridge system becomes zonal and isolates several large regions within closed lines of f/H. In these regions, principally the abyssal plains of the southern ocean, the low-frequency barotropic response of the ocean may be wavelike in character and much stronger than the Sverdrup response. Consequently, this analysis suggessts that the southern ocean may have a stronger barotropic response to wind forcing than the other five major ocean basins.

Koblinsky, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Detection of Coccolithophore Blooms in Ocean Color Satellite Imagery: a Generalized Approach for Use with Multiple Sensors

A generalized coccolithophore bloom classifier has been developed for use with ocean color imagery. The bloom classifier was developed using extracted satellite reflectance data from SeaWiFS images screened by the default bloom detection mask. In the current application, we extend the optical water type (OWT) classification scheme by adding a new coccolithophore bloom class formed from these extracted reflectances. Based on an in situ coccolithophore data set from the North Atlantic, the detection levels with the new scheme were between 1,500 and 1,800 coccolithophore cellsmL and 43,000 and 78,000 lithsmL. The detected bloom area using the OWT method was an average of 1.75 times greater than the default bloom detector based on a collection of SeaWiFS 1 km imagery. The versatility of the scheme is shown with SeaWiFS, MODIS Aqua, CZCS and MERIS imagery at the 1 km scale. The OWT scheme was applied to the daily global SeaWiFS imagery mission data set (years 19972010). Based on our results, average annual coccolithophore bloom area was more than two times greater in the southern hemisphere compared to the northern hemi- sphere with values of 2.00 106 km2 and 0.75 106 km2, respectively. The new algorithm detects larger bloom areas in the Southern Ocean compared to the default algorithm, and our revised global annual average of 2.75106 km2 is dominated by contributions from the Southern Ocean.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
DOE OSTI2019

Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion, Driven by Internal Variability, in the Presence of Increasing Atmospheric CO2

A number of physically-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain the surprising expansion of Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) over the satellite era (1979 to 2015). Here, we use a fully-coupled state-of-the-art global climate model to show that internal variability alone can produce such multidecadal periods of Antarctic SIA expansion even as atmospheric CO2 increases at observed rates and the planet warms. When our model is started from a relatively warm Southern Ocean state, Antarctic SIA sometimes (in one of three ensemble members) expands over multidecadal time scales at a rate comparable to that over the satellite era. SIA expansion occurs concurrently with rising atmospheric CO2 and warming global surface temperatures, and SIA trends by region and sector resemble those over the satellite era. Our results suggest that internal variability, particularly on long time scales over the Southern Ocean, may suffice to explain Antarctic SIA expansion over the satellite era.

Singh, Hansi AK↗
NASA NTRS2004

Antarctic Ultraviolet Radiation Climatology from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Data

This project has successfully produced a climatology of local noon spectral surface irradiance covering the Antarctic continent and the Southern Ocean, the spectral interval 290-700 nm (UV-A, UV-B, and photosynthetically active radiation, PAR), and the entire sunlit part of the year for November 1979-December 1999. Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data were used to specify column ozone abundance and UV-A (360- or 380-nm) reflectivity, and passive microwave (MW) sea ice concentrations were used to specify the surface albedo over the Southern Ocean. For this latter task, sea ice concentration retrievals from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and its successor, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were identified with ultraviolet/visible-wavelength albedos based on an empirical TOMS/MW parameterization developed for this purpose (Lubin and Morrow, 2001). The satellite retrievals of surface albedo and UV-A reflectivity were used in a delta-Eddington radiative transfer model to estimate cloud effective optical depth. These optical depth estimates were then used along with the total ozone and surface albedo to calculate the downwelling spectral UV and PAR irradiance at the surface. These spectral irradiance maps were produced for every usable day of TOMS data between 1979-1999 (every other day early in the TOMS program, daily later on).

Lubin, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Our Understanding of Antarctic Sea Ice with NASA's Operation IceBridge and the Upcoming ICESat-2 Mission

Antarctic sea ice is a crucial component of the global climate system. Rapid sea ice production regimes around Antarctica feed the lower branch of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through intense brine rejection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (e.g., Orsi et al. 1999; Jacobs 2004), while the northward transport and subsequent melt of Antarctic sea ice drives the upper branch of the overturning circulation through freshwater input (Abernathy et al. 2016). Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea ice (Holland Kwok 2012) have likely increased the transport of freshwater away from the Antarctic coastline, significantly altering the salinity distribution of the Southern Ocean (Haumann et al. 2016). Conversely, weaker sea ice production and the lack of shelf water formation over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen shelf seas promote intrusion of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf and the ocean-driven melting of several ice shelves fringing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (e.g., Jacobs et al. 2011; Pritchard et al. 2012; Dutrieux et al. 2014). Sea ice conditions around Antarctica are also increasingly considered an important factor impacting local atmospheric conditions and the surface melting of Antarctic ice shelves (e.g., Scambos et al. 2017). Sea ice formation around Antarctica is responsive to the strong regional variability in atmospheric forcing present around Antarctica, driving this bimodal variability in the behavior and properties of the underlying shelf seas (e.g., Petty et al. 2012; Petty et al. 2014).

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2022

Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SW FB ) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report (AR5) ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical SW FB ’s that are more positive than those simulated in previous generation CMIP5 GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean SW FB can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. The response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean SW FB — inconsistent with extreme ECS.

extratropical cloud response↗