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At least 235 records · Page 13

Scaling neural simulations in STACS

Abstract As modern neuroscience tools acquire more details about the brain, the need to move towards biological-scale neural simulations continues to grow. However, effective simulations at scale remain a challenge. Beyond just the tooling required to enable parallel execution, there is also the unique structure of the synaptic interconnectivity, which is globally sparse but has relatively high connection density and non-local interactions per neuron. There are also various practicalities to consider in high performance computing applications, such as the need for serializing neural networks to support potentially long-running simulations that require checkpoint-restart. Although acceleration on neuromorphic hardware is also a possibility, development in this space can be difficult as hardware support tends to vary between platforms and software support for larger scale models also tends to be limited. In this paper, we focus our attention on Simulation Tool for Asynchronous Cortical Streams (STACS), a spiking neural network simulator that leverages the Charm++ parallel programming framework, with the goal of supporting biological-scale simulations as well as interoperability between platforms. Central to these goals is the implementation of scalable data structures suitable for efficiently distributing a network across parallel partitions. Here, we discuss a straightforward extension of a parallel data format with a history of use in graph partitioners, which also serves as a portable intermediate representation for different neuromorphic backends. We perform scaling studies on the Summit supercomputer, examining the capabilities of STACS in terms of network build and storage, partitioning, and execution. We highlight how a suitably partitioned, spatially dependent synaptic structure introduces a communication workload well-suited to the multicast communication supported by Charm++. We evaluate the strong and weak scaling behavior for networks on the order of millions of neurons and billions of synapses, and show that STACS achieves competitive levels of parallel efficiency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Higher Order, Hybrid BEM/FEM Methods Applied to Antenna Modeling

In this presentation, the authors address topics relevant to higher order modeling using hybrid BEM/FEM formulations. The first of these is the limitation on convergence rates imposed by geometric modeling errors in the analysis of scattering by a dielectric sphere. The second topic is the application of an Incomplete LU Threshold (ILUT) preconditioner to solve the linear system resulting from the BEM/FEM formulation. The final tOpic is the application of the higher order BEM/FEM formulation to antenna modeling problems. The authors have previously presented work on the benefits of higher order modeling. To achieve these benefits, special attention is required in the integration of singular and near-singular terms arising in the surface integral equation. Several methods for handling these terms have been presented. It is also well known that achieving ~he high rates of convergence afforded by higher order bases may als'o require the employment of higher order geometry models. A number of publications have described the use of quadratic elements to model curved surfaces. The authors have shown in an EFIE formulation, applied to scattering by a PEC .sphere, that quadratic order elements may be insufficient to prevent the domination of modeling errors. In fact, on a PEC sphere with radius r = 0.58 Lambda(sub 0), a quartic order geometry representation was required to obtain a convergence benefi.t from quadratic bases when compared to the convergence rate achieved with linear bases. Initial trials indicate that, for a dielectric sphere of the same radius, - requirements on the geometry model are not as severe as for the PEC sphere. The authors will present convergence results for higher order bases as a function of the geometry model order in the hybrid BEM/FEM formulation applied to dielectric spheres. It is well known that the system matrix resulting from the hybrid BEM/FEM formulation is ill -conditioned. For many real applications, a good preconditioner is required to obtain usable convergence from an iterative solver. The authors have examined the use of an Incomplete LU Threshold (ILUT) preconditioner . to solver linear systems stemming from higher order BEM/FEM formulations in 2D scattering problems. Although the resulting preconditioner provided aD excellent approximation to the system inverse, its size in terms of non-zero entries represented only a modest improvement when compared with the fill-in associated with a sparse direct solver. Furthermore, the fill-in of the preconditioner could not be substantially reduced without the occurrence of instabilities. In addition to the results for these 2D problems, the authors will present iterative solution data from the application of the ILUT preconditioner to 3D problems.

Fink, P. W.↗

A production-tagged aerosol module for Earth system models, OsloAero5.3 – extensions and updates for CAM5.3-Oslo

Abstract. We document model updates and present and discuss modeling and validation results from a further developed production-tagged aerosol module, OsloAero5.3, for use in Earth system models. The aerosol module has in this study been implemented and applied in CAM5.3-Oslo. This model is based on CAM5.3–CESM1.2 and its own predecessor model version CAM4-Oslo. OsloAero5.3 has improved treatment of emissions, aerosol chemistry, particle life cycle, and aerosol–cloud interactions compared to its predecessor OsloAero4.0 in CAM4-Oslo. The main new features consist of improved aerosol sources; the module now explicitly accounts for aerosol particle nucleation and secondary organic aerosol production, with new emissions schemes also for sea salt, dimethyl sulfide (DMS), and marine primary organics. Mineral dust emissions are updated as well, adopting the formulation of CESM1.2. The improved model representation of aerosol–cloud interactions now resolves heterogeneous ice nucleation based on black carbon (BC) and mineral dust calculated by the model and treats the activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) as in CAM5.3. Compared to OsloAero4.0 in CAM4-Oslo, the black carbon (BC) mass concentrations are less excessive aloft, with a better fit to observations. Near-surface mass concentrations of BC and sea salt aerosols are also less biased, while sulfate and mineral dust are slightly more biased. Although appearing quite similar for CAM5.3-Oslo and CAM4-Oslo, the validation results for organic matter (OM) are inconclusive, since both of the respective versions of OsloAero are equipped with a limited number of OM tracers for the sake of computational efficiency. Any information about the assumed mass ratios of OM to organic carbon (OC) for different types of OM sources is lost in the transport module. Assuming that observed OC concentrations scaled by 1.4 are representative for the modeled OM concentrations, CAM5.3-Oslo with OsloAero5.3 is slightly inferior for the very sparsely available observation data. Comparing clear-sky column-integrated optical properties with data from ground-based remote sensing, we find a negative bias in optical depth globally; however, it is not as strong as in CAM4-Oslo, but has positive biases in some areas typically dominated by mineral dust emissions. Aerosol absorption has a larger negative bias than the optical depth globally. This is reflected in a lower positive bias in areas where mineral dust is the main contributor to absorption. Globally, the low bias in absorption is smaller than in CAM4-Oslo. The Ångström parameter exhibits small biases both globally and regionally, suggesting that the aerosol particle sizes are reasonably well represented. Cloud-top droplet number concentrations over oceans are generally underestimated compared to satellite retrievals, but seem to be overestimated downwind of major emissions of dust and biomass burning sources. Finally, we find small changes in direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere, while the cloud radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols is now more negative than in CAM4-Oslo, being on the strong side compared to the multi-model estimate in IPCC AR5. Although not all validation results in this study show improvement for the present CAM5.3-Oslo version, the extended and updated aerosol module OsloAero5.3 is more advanced and applicable than its predecessor OsloAero4.0, as it includes new parameterizations that more readily facilitate sensitivity and process studies and use in climate and Earth system model studies in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of a Limited Scope Network's Lightning Detection Efficiency

This paper outlines a modeling technique to map lightning detection efficiency variations over a region surveyed by a sparse array of ground based detectors. A reliable flash peak current distribution (PCD) for the region serves as the technique's base. This distribution is recast as an event probability distribution function. The technique then uses the PCD together with information regarding: site signal detection thresholds, type of solution algorithm used, and range attenuation; to formulate the probability that a flash at a specified location will yield a solution. Applying this technique to the full region produces detection efficiency contour maps specific to the parameters employed. These contours facilitate a comparative analysis of each parameter's effect on the network's detection efficiency. In an alternate application, this modeling technique gives an estimate of the number, strength, and distribution of events going undetected. This approach leads to a variety of event density contour maps. This application is also illustrated. The technique's base PCD can be empirical or analytical. A process for formulating an empirical PCD specific to the region and network being studied is presented. A new method for producing an analytical representation of the empirical PCD is also introduced.

Rompala, John T.↗

Global Assimilation of EOS-Aura Data as a Means of Mapping Ozone Distribution in the Lower Stratosphere and Troposphere

Ozone in the lower stratosphere and the troposphere plays an important role in forcing the climate. However, the global ozone distribution in this region is not well known because of the sparse distribution of in-situ data and the poor sensitivity of satellite based observations to the lowermost of the atmosphere. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments on EOS-Aura provide information on the total ozone column and the stratospheric ozone profile. This data has been assimilated into NASA s Global Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system (DAS). We will discuss the results of assimilating three years of OMI and MLS data into GEOS-5. This data was assimilated alongside meteorological observations from both conventional sources and satellite instruments. Previous studies have shown that combining observations from these instruments through the Trajectory Tropospheric Ozone Residual methodology (TTOR) or using data assimilation can yield useful, yet low biased, estimates of the tropospheric ozone budget. We show that the assimilated ozone fields in this updated version of GEOS-5 exhibit an excellent agreement with ozone sonde and High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) data in the lower stratosphere in terms of spatial and temporal variability as well as integrated ozone abundances. Good representation of small-scale vertical features follows from combining the MLS data with the assimilated meteorological fields. We then demonstrate how this information can be used to calculate the Stratosphere - Troposphere Exchange of ozone and its contribution to the tropospheric ozone column in GEOS-5. Evaluations of tropospheric ozone distributions from the assimilation will be made by comparisons with sonde and other in-situ observations.

Wargan, Krzysztof↗

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗

The Influence of Prescribed Boundary Conditions on Near-Surface Temperature over the Arctic in the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model

An accurate historical record of evolving Arctic conditions is integral to furthering our understanding of climate processes and to providing a foundation for predicting future climate scenarios in northern high latitudes. Atmospheric reanalyses are seen as an important source of information on the recent past for the data-sparse Arctic region. An assessment of near-surface Arctic air temperatures finds significant discrepancies among the various modern reanalyses. An important point is the treatment of surface boundary conditions: specifically, the sea ice cover and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Arctic Ocean. Reanalyses use different methodologies and data sources for SSTs and sea ice concentration boundary forcing. Notably, the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) both use boundary forcing derived from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) over an extended, overlapping period of time. This allows for an examination of differences between the two systems while both concurrently employ the same fractional sea ice coverage. To further understand these differences, an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations using the MERRA-2 atmospheric model - but without data assimilation - shows considerable differences in Arctic temperatures as compared to reanalyses, particularly in autumn and winter months. Results from the AMIP simulations suggest that the surface representation over sea ice used in the MERRA-2 model provides an intrinsic warm bias and obfuscates Arctic Amplification, an established feature present in observations and reanalyses. An additional ensemble of AMIP-style simulations using the MERRA-2 atmospheric model was performed using boundary conditions derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. An in-depth comparison of surface temperatures over the Arctic from the two reanalyses and two AMIP-style ensembles will be presented, along with an assessment of the effects of the varying Arctic temperature time series on the atmospheric general circulation and energy budget.

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt↗

Latent code-based fusion: A Volterra neural network approach

We propose a deep structure encoder using Volterra Neural Networks (VNNs) to seek a latent representation of multi-modal data whose features are jointly captured by a union of subspaces. The so-called self-representation embedding of the latent codes leads to a simplified fusion which is driven by a similarly constructed decoding. The Volterra Filter architecture achieved reduction in parameter complexity is primarily due to controlled non-linearities being introduced by the higher-order convolutions in lieu of generalized activation functions. Experimental results on two different datasets have shown a significant improvement in the clustering performance for VNNs auto-encoder over conventional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) auto-encoder. In addition, we also show that the proposed approach demonstrates a much-improved sample complexity over CNN-based auto-encoder with a robust classification performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Robust Group Subspace Recovery: A New Approach for Multi-Modality Data Fusion

Robust Subspace Recovery (RoSuRe) algorithm was recently introduced as a principled and numerically efficient algorithm that unfolds underlying Unions of Subspaces (UoS) structure, present in the data. The union of Subspaces (UoS) is capable of identifying more complex trends in data sets than simple linear models. In this work, we build on and extend RoSuRe to prospect the structure of different data modalities individually. We propose a novel multi-modal data fusion approach based on group sparsity which we refer to as Robust Group Subspace Recovery (RoGSuRe). Relying on a bi-sparsity pursuit paradigm and non-smooth optimization techniques, the introduced framework learns a new joint representation of the time series from different data modalities, respecting an underlying UoS model. We subsequently integrate the obtained structures to form a unified subspace structure. The proposed approach exploits the structural dependencies between the different modalities data to cluster the associated target objects. The resulting fusion of the unlabeled sensors’ data from experiments on audio and magnetic data has shown that our method is competitive with other state of the art subspace clustering methods. The resulting UoS structure is employed to classify newly observed data points, highlighting the abstraction capacity of the proposed method.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Inference of phase field fracture models

The phase field approach to modeling fracture uses a diffuse damage field to represent cracks. This representation mollifies singularities that arise in computations with sharp interface models and some of the resultant difficulties in the mathematical and numerical treatment of fracture. Phase field fracture models have proven effective at representing crack propagation, branching, and merging. Specific formulations, beginning with brittle fracture, have also been shown to converge to classical solutions. Extensions to cover the range of material failure, including ductile and cohesive fracture, lead to an array of possible models. There exists a large body of literature focusing on this class of models and on the impact of model form on the predicted crack evolution. However, there have not been systematic studies into how optimal models may be chosen. Here, we take a first step in this direction by developing formal methods for identification of the best parsimonious model of phase field fracture given full-field data on the damage and deformation fields. We consider some of the main models that have been used for the degradation of elastic response due to damage and its propagation. Our approach builds upon Variational System Identification (VSI), a weak form variant of the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy). Furthermore, in this first communication we focus on synthetically generated data but we also consider central issues associated with the use of experimental full-field data, such as data sparsity and noise.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Domain Knowledge Guided Bayesian Optimization For Autonomous Alignment Of Complex Scientific Instruments

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful tool for optimizing complex non-linear systems. However, its performance degrades in high-dimensional problems with tightly coupled parameters and highly asymmetric objective landscapes, where rewards are sparse. In such needle-in-a-haystack scenarios, even advanced methods like trust-region BO (TurBO) often lead to unsatisfactory results. We propose a domain knowledge guided Bayesian Optimization approach, which leverages physical insight to fundamentally simplify the search problem by transforming coordinates to decouple input features and align the active subspaces with the primary search axes. We demonstrate this approach's efficacy on a challenging 12-dimensional, 6-crystal Split-and-Delay optical system, where conventional approaches, including standard BO, TuRBO and multi-objective BO, consistently led to unsatisfactory results. When combined with an reverse annealing exploration strategy, this approach reliably converges to the global optimum. The coordinate transformation itself is the key to this success, significantly accelerating the search by aligning input co-ordinate axes with the problem's active subspaces. As increasingly complex scientific instruments, from large telescopes to new spectrometers at X-ray Free Electron Lasers are deployed, the demand for robust high-dimensional optimization grows. Our results demonstrate a generalizable paradigm: leveraging physical insight to transform high-dimensional, coupled optimization problems into simpler representations can enable rapid and robust automated tuning for consistent high performance while still retaining current optimization algorithms.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer (KOGUT) v0.1

KOGUT — Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer KOGUT implements the Relational Graph Transformer (RelGT) architecture for knowledge graph link prediction in biological domains, with a primary focus on microbial growth media prediction. While the original RelGT (arXiv:2505.10960) targets relational tables, time series, and multi-table databases, KOGUT adapts this architecture for heterogeneous biological knowledge graphs, providing first-in-class AI predictive models for microbial cultivation. Key Adaptations Beyond Original RelGT: - Knowledge Graph Focus: Applied to biological KGs with semantic node types (taxa, chemicals, media, phenotypes, environments) versus generic relational database tables, trained on the KG-Microbe knowledge graph (1.3M entities, 2.9M edges, 24 relation types). - Multimodal Node Encoding: Integrates node labels, categories, descriptions, and synonyms from KG metadata through learned embedding layers—adapting relational column features to graph node attributes with textual semantics. - Extended K-Hop Subgraph Strategy: Optimized neighborhood sampling (3-hop default, configurable up to 200 nodes) tuned for sparse biological networks, building on the original local-global attention framework with biological relation preservation. - Biolink Predicate Preservation: Type-specific transformations for 24 biological edge semantics (occurs_in, consumes, produces, has_phenotype, subclass_of) beyond standard relational foreign keys, enabling multi-relation link prediction. - Inductive Learning Support: Enables zero-shot predictions for novel taxa through feature-based embeddings (temperature, oxygen requirements, gram stain, cell shape), extending the original transductive relational benchmark scope to uncultured microorganisms. CheapSOTA Performance Optimizations (This Distribution): - VQ-EMA Centroid Attention: Vector quantization with exponential moving average for improved global context modeling (+5-10% MRR improvement). - HDF5 Precomputed Data Loading: One-time preprocessing of k-hop subgraphs to eliminate redundant graph traversals (2-5× training speedup). - Distributed Data Parallel Training: Multi-GPU support for scaling to larger knowledge graphs (tested on 4× NVIDIA A100 GPUs at NERSC Perlmutter). - Mixed Precision Training: Automatic mixed precision (AMP) for memory efficiency and faster training. Advantages Over Standard Knowledge Graph Embedding Models: Combines RelGT's proven multi-element tokenization (features, type, hop, structure) with graph-native biological representations, enabling interpretable link prediction across heterogeneous entities that standard embedding models (TransE, RotatE, ComplEx) and table-based transformers cannot directly model. Achieves near-perfect performance on microbial growth media prediction (MRR: 0.9966, Precision@1: 0.9932, Hit@10: 1.0000) while maintaining explainability through attention-based reasoning over biological pathways. Training Data: - KG-Microbe merged knowledge graph: 1,379,337 nodes, 2,960,472 edges - 24 biological relation types including taxonomic hierarchies, metabolic interactions, phenotype associations, and environmental relationships - Primary prediction task: Growth media suitability for microbial taxa (biolink:occurs_in, 50K edges) - Multi-relation capability: Predicts links for any of the 24 relation types, including chemical consumption/production, phenotype associations, and taxonomic classification Citation: Original RelGT Architecture: Dwivedi et al., "Relational Graph Transformer", arXiv:2505.10960, 2025 KOGUT Implementation: Knowledge Oriented Graph Unified Transformer for Microbial Growth Media Prediction Developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Trained on NERSC Perlmutter supercomputer

Joachimiak, Marcin [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab↗

Influence of background sources and topographic resolution in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on xenon plume characteristics at monitoring stations

For many atmospheric monitoring applications, networks of measurement sites—such as the radionuclide stations of the International Monitoring System—can be sparse. With measurement locations potentially hundreds to thousands of kilometers from a release it is important to quantify the effects of physical processes on transport and dispersion of plumes between source and measurement locations. This study addresses the effects of background sources and topography resolution near the release location of radionuclides. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with inline chemistry to investigate (1) how an additional, time-varying source of 133 Xe, such as an operational medical isotope production facility, contributes to activity concentration measurements at monitoring sites, and (2) how complex topography influences on atmospheric conditions near emission sources impact plume concentrations at varying distances from the source. Two 133 Xe emission sources, including (1) a high flux rate of short duration representing an explosive event, and (2) a variable and continuous background source, are simulated. The continuous background source contributes significantly to total 133 Xe concentrations at several monitoring stations. Further, a WRF simulation at 9 km horizontal resolution is compared with a nested grid simulation, where the innermost domain has a resolution of 1 km. Increased topographic resolution leads to an improved representation of plume responses to local winds, with topographic influences greatest at locations closest to the sources. Differences between the two domain resolutions decrease at greater distances from the sources, as plumes have time to spread and mix and are influenced by synoptic scale circulation patterns that are represented similarly in both simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote Sensing of Lineage Functional Types for Modeling and Monitoring Biodiversity

Hyperspectral remote sensing has the potential to continuously scale plant function and plant diversity information from landscape to global extents. Numerous studies have indicated that VSWIR (400-2500 nm) reflectance properties of vegetation capture evolutionarily conserved biochemical, structural, and other functional attributes of plant species. Spectral properties conserved in plants provide the opportunity to both 1) aggregate species into lineages with improved classification accuracy and 2) link those lineages directly to plant traits. Full realization of this goal will enable parameterization of Land Surface Models (LSMs) with remotely sensed information, e.g., canopy nitrogen, and better representations of biodiversity and functional diversity in biogeographic studies. In this study, we use hyperspectral AVIRIS data from the 2013 HyspIRI campaign over the Southern Sierra Nevada, California flight box to investigate the potential for incorporating evolutionary thinking into landcover classification. We link the airborne hyperspectral data with vegetation plot data from roughly 1372 surveys and a phylogeny representing 1361 species. We aggregate species into lineages ranging from species level groups down to similar number of Plant Functional Types as often used in LSMs. We assessed the ability of Random Forest and Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis to discriminate across these different phylogenetic scales and determine the optimal number of lineages to classify. Although there are some temporal and spatial differences in our training data, our best approaches achieved moderate classification accuracy (Kappa > 0.65). Given an optimal number of lineages, we explored approaches to improve classifications including machine learning and unmixing approaches. This work suggests that lineage-based methods may be a promising way to leverage the huge amounts of data that will come from high resolution and high return interval hyperspectral data planned for the Surface Biology and Geology mission with sparsely sampled existing ground-based ecological data.

Hyperspectral↗

Causal Interactions between Southern Ocean Polynyas and High-Latitude Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Abstract Weddell Sea open-ocean polynyas have been observed to occasionally release heat from the deep ocean to the atmosphere, indicating that their sporadic appearances may be an important feature of high-latitude atmosphere–ocean variability. Yet, observations of the phenomenon are sparse and many standard-resolution models represent these features poorly, if at all. We use a fully coupled, synoptic-scale preindustrial control simulation of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv0-HR) to effectively simulate open-ocean polynyas and investigate their role in the climate system. Our approach employs statistical tests of Granger causality to diagnose local and remote drivers of, and responses to, polynya heat loss on interannual to decadal time scales. First, we find that polynya heat loss Granger causes a persistent increase in surface air temperature over the Weddell Sea, strengthening the local cyclonic wind circulation. Along with responding to polynyas, atmospheric conditions also facilitate their development. When the Southern Ocean experiences a rapid poleward shift in the circumpolar westerlies following a prolonged negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), Weddell Sea salinity increases, promoting density destratification and convection in the water column. Finally, we find that the reduction of surface heat fluxes during periods of full ice cover is not fully compensated by ocean heat transport into the high latitudes. This imbalance leads to a buildup of ocean heat content that supplies polynya heat loss. These results disentangle the complex, coupled climate processes that both enable the polynya’s existence and respond to it, providing insights to improve the representation of these highly episodic sea ice features in climate models.

Kaufman, Zachary S.↗

Image Dis-Integration for Improved Plasmasphere Visualization

Traditionally, study of the plasmasphere has involved terrestrial observation of local characteristics. Global modeling of the plasmasphere in such an observation regime made use of an ensemble of (sparse) local measurements. Recently, sensors aboard the IMAGE (Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration) satellite (in particular, the EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) Imager) have created the potential for truly global study of the plasmasphere. IMAGE was launched in spring of 2000 in an orbit with apogee altitude 7.2 R E (Earth radii) and perigee altitude 1000 km. IMAGE's EUV sensor allows an external view of the distribution of cold plasma in the plasmasphere to be acquired. EUV is designed to image light emission at 30.4 nanometers, which is the emission wavelength of the He + ion in the presence of solar radiation. He + makes up approximately 15-20% of the plasma in the plasmasphere, thus imaging of He + enables determination of plasma distribution. The EUV instrument provides a 90° by 84° field of view which is imaged as an equally spaced 150x140 pixel array on a spherical imaging surface. The EUV produces an image approximately every 10 minutes when the sensor is operating. Since EUV images contain line-of-sight integrations of plasma distributions, they do not directly express equatorial plane density (which would enable comparison of observed plasma distributions with predictions from models). Furthermore, the plasma density at any point in three-space is not known. The goal of our work was development of a technique that can enable plasma density to be determined throughout three-space. Our approach to creation of a three-space representation of the plasma distribution involves disintegrating the EUV lines of sight to form a volumetric map of plasma densities.

Timothy S. Newman↗

A Multiple Lines of Evidence Approach for Conceptual Site Models in Performance Assessments - 19070

Demonstration of the long-term performance of remediated radioactive waste sites relies on models that evaluate vadose zone and groundwater flow and contaminant transport for thousands of years. Model qualification, verification, and comparisons with data are essential elements to demonstrating the accuracy of long-term performance assessments (PAs). However, comparisons with data are generally limited due to incomplete characterization data and long-time scales. Since PAs support decision making to assure long-term protection of both human health and the environment, a conceptual site model (CSM) is needed to explain the hydrodynamic behavior and account for subsurface heterogeneities in sufficient detail to support confident decisions. In the case of the Waste Management Area (WMA) C PA, where the focus of the effort is on characterizing flow and transport through a thick vadose zone, site-specific data are sparse and larger-scale geologic descriptions are adopted with the risk of losing small scale features that may affect contaminant transport. Features such as horizontal bedding and sloping interfaces between contrasting material types, as well as vertically oriented features such as clastic dikes, may be difficult to delineate from sparse characterization data, but may affect the extent to which contaminants are transported. The PA conducted to identify long-term impacts associated with the closure of the single-shell tank (SST) farm at WMA C adopted an equivalent homogenous medium approach to represent the major stratigraphic units at the site. This approach explicitly represents major stratigraphic units but assigns hydraulic properties that implicitly account for the presence of small-scale heterogeneities and their impact on flow and contaminant transport to the groundwater. The objective of this study is to evaluate the available site-specific and analogue data that can be used to characterize heterogeneity and to assess its impact on fate and transport of contaminants that may lead to different conclusions when compared to the results of the equivalent homogeneous media approach. To this end, a multiple lines of evidence approach was used to construct alternative CSMs based on an evaluation of several types of data. These data include 1) general characteristics and features of the major stratigraphic units from historical descriptions; 2) borehole geologic logs; 3) particle size distribution measurements; 4) moisture content measurements; 5) spectral gamma data; and 6) concentrations of key constituents (i.e., Tc-99) in both the vadose zone and groundwater impacted by past releases. Based on an analysis of the available data, lines of evidence are evaluated for consistency and integrated in a consistent manner into scientifically defensible CSMs. Numerical models are then used to evaluate the impact that the explicit representation of heterogeneities has on contaminant transport. Together, the field data and the numerical modeling results indicate that heterogeneity caused by the small-scale features do not have a significant (i.e. greater than a factor of 2) impact on transport below WMA C relative to peak concentrations and arrival times for potential releases from waste tanks. The results of this study underscore the value of using multiple lines of evidence based on the quantity and quality of available data in developing alternative CSMs and evaluating their relative impact on key transport metrics such as arrival times and peak concentration. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗