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At least 235 records · Page 13

Improving the Representation of Land Surface Processes using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART)

The land surface is a critical part of the earth system as processes related to water, carbon, energy and nitrogen cycling have important implications for climate forcing, air quality, water availability and seasonal atmospheric forecasting. Despite advances in land surface modeling, land surface model performance is often limited because of errors related to initial and boundary conditions, model structure, and parameters. Data assimilation (DA) techniques combined with an expanding network of earth system observations present an opportunity to reduce these errors and improve simulations. Here we apply an Ensemble Kalman Filter DA system as part of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to a variety of land surface simulations. First, we describe the use of remotely sensed biomass observations to provide improved simulations of plant phenology, carbon and water cycling for regions highly sensitive to climate change (Western US, China, and Arctic). We discuss approaches to account for systemic biases between models and observations, including the use of spatially-varying adaptive ensemble inflation as an alternative approach to re-scaling soil moisture observations. Finally, we discuss a strategy to incorporate complementary observations (snow water equivalent, solar-induced fluorescence) to better constrain the representation of carbon and water cycling across complex terrain.

DART↗

Validation of Formaldehyde Products From Three Satellite Retrievals (OMI SAO, OMPS-NPP SAO, and OMI BIRA) in the Marine Atmosphere With Four Seasons of Atom Aircraft Observations

Formaldehyde (HCHO) in the atmosphere is an intermediate product from the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds. In remote marine regions, HCHO variability is closely related to atmospheric oxidation capacity and modeled HCHO in these regions is usually added as a global satellite HCHO background. Thus, it is important to understand and validate the levels of satellite HCHO over the remote oceans. Here we intercompare three satellite retrievals of total HCHO columns (OMI-SAO (v004), OMPS-NPP SAO, and OMI BIRA) and validate them against in situ observations from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) mission. All retrievals are correlated with ATom integrated columns over remote oceans, with OMI SAO (v004) showing the best agreement. This is also reflected in the mean bias (MB) for OMI SAO (-0.73±0.87) x 10 15 molec cm -2 , OMPS SAO (-0.76±0.88) x 10 15 molec cm -2 , and OMI BIRA (-1.40±1.11) x 10 15 molec cm -2 . We recommend the OMI-SAO (v004) retrieval for remote ocean atmosphere studies. Three satellite HCHO retrievals and in situ ATom columns all generally captured the spatial and seasonal distributions of HCHO in the remote ocean atmosphere. Retrieval bias varies by latitude and season, but a persistent low bias is found in all products at high latitudes and the general low bias is most severe for the OMI BIRA product. Examination of retrieval components reveals slant column corrections have a larger impact on the retrievals over remote marine regions while AMFs play a smaller role. This study informs that the potential latitude-dependent biases in the retrievals require further investigation for improvement and should be considered when using marine HCHO satellite data, and vertical profiles from in situ instruments are crucial for validating satellite retrievals.

Atom↗

Effect of Production Bias on Radiation-Induced Segregation in Ni-Cr Alloys

We present an in-depth investigation into the Radiation-Induced Segregation (RIS) phenomenon in Ni-Cr alloys. All the pivotal factors affecting RIS such as surface’s absorption efficiency, grain size, production bias, dose rate, temperature, and sink density were systematically studied. Through comprehensive simulations, the individual and collective impacts of these factors were analyzed, enabling a refined understanding of RIS. A notable finding was the significant influence of production bias on point defects’ interactions with grain boundaries/surfaces, thereby playing a crucial role in RIS processes. Production bias alters the neutrality of these interactions, leading to a preferential absorption of one type of point defect by the boundary and consequent establishment of distinct surface-mediated patterns of point defects. These spatial patterns further result in non-monotonic spatial profiles of solute atoms near surfaces/grain boundaries, corroborated by experimental observations. In particular, a positive production bias, signifying a higher production rate of vacancies over interstitials, drives more Cr depletion at the grain boundary. Moreover, a temperature-dependent production bias must be considered to recover the experimentally reported dependence of RIS on temperature. The severity of radiation damage and RIS becomes more pronounced with increased production bias, dose rate, and grain size, while high temperatures or sink density suppress the RIS severity. Model predictions were validated against experimental data, showcasing robust qualitative and quantitative agreements. The findings pave the way for further exploration of these spatial dependencies in subsequent studies, aiming to augment the comprehension and predictability of RIS processes in alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evolution of Altimetry Calibration and Future Challenges

Over the past 20 years, altimetry calibration has evolved from an engineering-oriented exercise to a multidisciplinary endeavor driving the state of the art. This evolution has been spurred by the developing promise of altimetry to capture the large-scale, but small-amplitude, changes of the ocean surface containing the expression of climate change. The scope of altimeter calibration/validation programs has expanded commensurately. Early efforts focused on determining a constant range bias and verifying basic compliance of the data products with mission requirements. Contemporary investigations capture, with increasing accuracies, the spatial and temporal characteristics of errors in all elements of the measurement system. Dedicated calibration sites still provide the fundamental service of estimating absolute bias, but also enable long-term monitoring of the sea-surface height and constituent measurements. The use of a network of island and coastal tide gauges has provided the best perspective on the measurement stability, and revealed temporal variations of altimeter measurement system drift. The cross-calibration between successive missions provided fundamentally new information on the performance of altimetry systems. Spatially and temporally correlated errors pose challenges for future missions, underscoring the importance of cross-calibration of new measurements against the established record.

calibration↗

Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation

Abstract Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian model for multivariate discrete data using spatial and expert information with application to inferring building attributes

When modeling sparsely observed multivariate data, strong prior information elicited from experts can be used to bolster predictive accuracy and counteract sampling bias. Similarly, modeling autocorrelation in space can help make use of co-occurrence patterns present in many types of spatial data. To make use of both expert prior information and spatial structure, we propose a novel graphical model for a spatial Bayesian network developed specifically to address challenges in inferring the attributes of buildings from geographically sparse observational data. This model is implemented as the sum of a spatial multivariate Gaussian random field and a tabular conditional probability function in real-valued space prior to projection onto the probability simplex. This modeling form is especially suitable for the usage of prior information in the form of sets of atomic rules obtained from experts. To perform inference with missing data, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme composed of alternating steps of Gibbs sampling of missing entries and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for model parameters. A case study in building attribution is presented to highlight the advantages and limitations of this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring Sources of Surface Bias in HRRR Using New York State Mesonet

In recent years, there has been increasing demand for applications of short-term forecasting of renewable energy potential and assessments of the likelihood of extreme weather events using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Examining the biases in the newest version of HRRR is necessary to promote further model development. Using data from one of the most comprehensive and dense monitoring networks, New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we evaluate the HRRR version 3 meteorological fields for an entire year. In this work, the land-atmosphere-cloud coupling system is evaluated as an integrated whole. We investigate the physical processes influencing the soil hydrological balance and the thermodynamic interactions, from surface fluxes up to the level of boundary layer convection from both temporal (seasonal and diurnal) and spatial perspectives. Results show that the model 2 m temperature and humidity biases are seasonally dependent, with warm and dry bias present during the warm season, and an extreme nocturnal cold bias in winter. The summer warm bias includes both a land-surface-induced bias and a cloud-induced bias. Inaccurate representation of energy partition and soil hydrological process across different land use types as well as a hydrological bias in describing spring snowmelt are identified as the main source of the land-surface-induced bias. A feedback loop linking cloud presence, flux changes, and temperature contributes to the cloud-induced bias. The positive solar radiation bias increases from clear sky to overcast sky conditions. The most significant bias occurs during overcast and thick cloud conditions associated with frontal passage and thunderstorms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source Decomposition of Eddy-Covariance CO 2 Flux Measurements for Evaluating a High-Resolution Urban CO 2 Emissions Inventory

We present the comparison of source-partitioned CO2 flux measurements with a high-resolution urban CO 2 emissions inventory (Hestia). Tower-based measurements of CO and 14 C are used to partition net CO 2 flux measurements into fossil and biogenic components. A flux footprint model is used to quantify spatial variation in flux measurements. We compare the daily cycle and spatial structure of Hestia and eddy-covariance derived fossil fuel CO 2 emissions on a seasonal basis. Hestia inventory emissions exceed the eddy-covariance measured emissions by 0.36 µ mol m −2 s −1 (3.2%) in the cold season and 0.62 µ mol m −2 s −1 (9.1%) in the warm season. The daily cycle of fluxes in both products matches closely, with correlations in the hourly mean fluxes of 0.86 (cold season) and 0.93 (warm season). The spatially averaged fluxes also agree in each season and a persistent spatial pattern in the differences during both seasons that may suggest a bias related to residential heating emissions. In addition, in the cold season, the magnitudes of average daytime biological uptake and nighttime respiration at this flux site are approximately 15% and 27% of the mean fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over the same time period, contradicting common assumptions of no significant biological CO 2 exchange in northern cities during winter. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using trace gas ratios to adapt eddy-covariance flux measurements in urban environments for disaggregating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and urban ecosystem fluxes at high spatial and temporal resolution.

eddy-covariance flux measurements↗

Application of the AI2 Climate Emulator to E3SMv2's Global Atmosphere Model, With a Focus on Precipitation Fidelity

Abstract Can the current successes of global machine learning‐based weather simulators be generalized beyond 2‐week forecasts to stable and accurate multiyear runs? The recently developed AI2 Climate Emulator (ACE) suggests this is feasible, based upon 10‐year simulations with a network trained on output from a physics‐based global atmosphere model using a grid spacing of approximately 110 km and forced by a repeating annual cycle of sea‐surface temperature. Here we show that ACE, without modification, can be trained to emulate another major atmospheric model, EAMv2, run at a comparable grid spacing for at least 10 years with similarly small climate biases—a prerequisite to wider applicability. With an analysis that combines multiple temporal, spatial, and frequency domain perspectives, we show that ACE faithfully represents the spatiotemporal structure of EAMv2 precipitation and related variables. Finally, we show that a pretrained ACE network is able to adapt to a new global climate model simulation data set with 10 fewer training steps than when starting from random initialization, all while still maintaining low levels of climate bias. Further analysis of these fine‐tuning experiments reveal ACE's intriguing ability to interpolate between distinct global climate models.

Duncan, James P. C.↗

Evaluation of the VIIRS BRDF, Albedo and NBAR Products Suite and an Assessment of Continuity with the Long Term MODIS Record

Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model parameters, Albedo quantities, and Nadir BRDF Adjusted Reflectance (NBAR) products derived from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), on the Suomi-NPP (National Polar-orbiting Partnership) satellite are evaluated with spatially representative in situ tower albedometer measurements and through comparison with the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) long term record. White Sky Albedo (WSA), Black Sky Albedo (BSA), NBAR, and Quality Assurance (QA) results show that the VIIRS algorithm is performing well at the global scale and is able to provide global data products comparable with the heritage MODIS (with an absolute bias of 0.0069 for shortwave broadband WSA) despite the spectral, angular, and effective spatial resolution differences between the two sensors. Both VIIRS and MODIS albedo are shown to agree well with in situ albedo measurements at a number of spatially representative sites. This evaluation provides confidence that the high quality, daily VIIRS BRDF model parameters, Albedo, and NBAR products will be able to provide the long term continuity required by the modeling and monitoring communities.

VIIRS↗

Effects of electromagnetic wave interference on observations of the Earth radiation budget

This paper investigates conditions necessary to match the irradiance derived by integrating radiances measured by a narrow field of view scanning radiometer with the irradiance measured by a hemispherical radiometer, both placed at a satellite altitude for Earth radiation budget estimates. When all sources are similar and they are spatially distributed randomly, then integrating radiance for the irradiance does not introduce a bias. Although the exact magnitude of the bias in other conditions is unknown, a finite area of the aperture that is much larger than the coherence area of radiation contributing to the Earth radiation budget, and a finite time to take a single measurement that is longer than the coherence time are likely to make the difference of the irradiance integrated from radiances and the irradiance measured by a hemispherical instrument insignificant. This conclusion does not contradict the existence of spatial coherence of light from incoherent sources. Therefore, electromagnetic energy absorbed by Earth is derivable from radiances measured by a scanning radiometer integrated over the Earth-viewing hemisphere and then averaging across all locations on the satellite orbital sphere when combined with solar irradiance measurements. Comparisons made in earlier studies show that the difference is less than 1%. In addition, when surface irradiances computed by a radiative transfer model constrained by top-of-atmosphere irradiances derived from radiance measurements are compared with downward shortwave irradiances taken by combinations of a pyreheliometer and a shaded pyranometer, or pyranometers, and with longwave ir- radiances taken by pyrgeometers, the biases in monthly mean irradiances are less than the uncertainties in the surface observations.

Seiji Kato↗

Monitoring Land Surface Albedo and Vegetation Dynamics Using High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Synthetic Time Series from Landsat and the MODIS BRDF/NBAR/Albedo Product

Seasonal vegetation phenology can significantly alter surface albedo which in turn affects the global energy balance and the albedo warmingcooling feedbacks that impact climate change. To monitor and quantify the surface dynamics of heterogeneous landscapes, high temporal and spatial resolution synthetic time series of albedo and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were generated from the 500-meter Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational Collection V006 daily BRDF (Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function) / NBAR (Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance) / albedo products and 30-meter Landsat 5 albedo and near-nadir reflectance data through the use of the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). The traditional Landsat Albedo (Shuai et al., 2011) makes use of the MODIS BRDFAlbedo products (MCD43) by assigning appropriate BRDFs from coincident MODIS products to each Landsat image to generate a 30-meter Landsat albedo product for that acquisition date. The available cloud free Landsat 5 albedos (due to clouds, generated every 16 days at best) were used in conjunction with the daily MODIS albedos to determine the appropriate 30-meter albedos for the intervening daily time steps in this study. These enhanced daily 30-meter spatial resolution synthetic time series were then used to track albedo and vegetation phenology dynamics over three Ameriflux tower sites (Harvard Forest in 2007, Santa Rita in 2011 and Walker Branch in 2005). These Ameriflux sites were chosen as they are all quite nearby new towers coming on line for the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), and thus represent locations which will be served by spatially paired albedo measures in the near future. The availability of data from the NEON towers will greatly expand the sources of tower albedometer data available for evaluation of satellite products. At these three Ameriflux tower sites the synthetic time series of broadband shortwave albedos were evaluated using the tower albedo measurements with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) less than 0.013 and a bias within the range of 0.006. These synthetic time series provide much greater spatial detail than the 500 meter gridded MODIS data, especially over more heterogeneous surfaces, which improves the efforts to characterize and monitor the spatial variation across species and communities. The mean of the difference between maximum and minimum synthetic time series of albedo within the MODIS pixels over a subset of satellite data of Harvard Forest (16 kilometers by 14 kilometers) was as high as 0.2 during the snow-covered period and reduced to around 0.1 during the snow-free period. Similarly, we have used STARFM to also couple MODIS Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectances (NBAR) values with Landsat 5 reflectances to generate daily synthetic times series of NBAR and thus Enhanced Vegetation Index (NBAR-EVI) at a 30-meter resolution. While normally STARFM is used with directional reflectances, the use of the view angle corrected daily MODIS NBAR values will provide more consistent time series. These synthetic times series of EVI are shown to capture seasonal vegetation dynamics with finer spatial and temporal details, especially over heterogeneous land surfaces.

Vegetation Index↗

Clonality, local population structure, and gametophyte sex ratios in cryptic species of the Sphagnum magellanicum complex

Sphagnum (peatmoss) comprises a moss (Bryophyta) clade with approximately 300-500 species. The genus has unparalleled ecological importance because Sphagnum-dominated peatlands store almost a third of the terrestrial carbon pool and peatmosses engineer the formation and microtopography of peatlands. Genomic resources for Sphagnum are being actively expanded, but many aspects of their biology are still poorly known. Among these are the degree to which Sphagnum species reproduce asexually, and the relative frequencies of male and female gametophytes in these haploid-dominant plants. Here, we assess clonality and gametophyte sex ratios and test hypotheses about the local-scale distribution of clones and sexes in four North American species of the S. magellanicum complex. These four species are difficult to distinguish morphologically and are very closely related. We also assess microbial communities associated with Sphagnum host plant clones and sexes at two sites. 405 samples of the four species, representing 57 populations, were subjected to RADseq. Analyses of population structure and clonality based on the molecular data utilized both phylogenetic and phenetic approaches. Multi-locus genotypes (genets) were identified using the RADseq data. Sexes of sampled ramets were determined using a molecular approach that utilized coverage of loci on the sex chromosomes after the method was validated using a sample of plants that expressed sex phenotypically. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Differences in fitness between genets was estimated as the numbers of ramets each genet comprised. Degree of clonality (numbers of genets/numbers of ramets [samples]) within species, among sites, and between gametophyte sexes were estimated. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Sphagnum-associated microbial communities were assessed at two sites in relation to Sphagnum clonality and sex. All four species appear to engage in a mixture of sexual and asexual (clonal) reproduction. A single ramet represents most genets but 2-8 ramets were detected for some genets. Only one genet is represented by ramets in multiple populations; all other genets are restricted to a single population. Within populations ramets of individual genets are spatially clustered, suggesting limited dispersal even within peatlands. Sex ratios are male-biased in S. diabolicum but female-biased in the other three species, although significantly so only in S. divinum. Neither species nor males/females differ in levels of clonal propagation. At St. Regis Lake (NY) and Franklin Bog (VT), microbial community composition is strongly differentiated between the sites, but differences between species, genets, and sexes were not detected. Within S. divinum, however, female gametophytes harbored 2-3 times the number oi of microbial taxa as males. These four Sphagnum species all exhibit a similar reproductive patterns that result from a mixture of sexual and asexual reproduction. The spatial patterns of clonally replicated ramets of genets suggest that these species fall between the so-called phalanx patterns where genets abut one another but do not extensively mix, because of limited ramet fragmentation, and the guerrilla patterns where extensive genet fragmentation and dispersal results in greater mixing of different genets. Although sex ratios in bryophytes are most often female-biased, both male and female biases occur in this complex of closely related species. The association of far greater microbial diversity for female gametophytes in S. divinum, which has a female-biased sex ratio, suggests additional research to determine if levels of microbial diversity are consistently correlated with differing patterns of sex ratio biases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Pressure in the Laser‐Heated Diamond Anvil Cell: A Quantitative Study and Implications for the Density Versus Mineralogy Correlation of the Mantle

Abstract Thermal pressure is an inevitable thermodynamic consequence of heating a volumetrically constrained sample in the diamond anvil cell. Its possible influences on experimentally determined density‐mineralogy correlations are widely appreciated, yet the effect itself has never been experimentally measured. We present here the first quantitative measurements of the spatial distribution of thermal pressure in a laser‐heated diamond anvil cell (LHDAC) in both olivine and AgI. The observed thermal pressure is strongly localized and closely follows the distribution of the laser hotspot. The magnitude of the thermal pressure is of the order of the thermodynamic thermal pressure ( αK T Δ T ) with gradients between 0.5 and 1.0 GPa/10 μm. Remarkably, we measure a steep gradient in thermal pressure even in a sample that is heated close to its melting line. This generates consequences for pressure determinations in pressure‐volume‐temperature (PVT) equation of state measurements when using an LHDAC. We show that an incomplete account of thermal pressure in PVT experiments can lead to biases in the coveted depth versus mineralogy correlation. However, the ability to spatially resolve thermal pressure in an LHDAC opens avenues to measure difficult‐to‐constrain thermodynamic derivative properties, which are important for comprehensive thermodynamic descriptions of the interior of planets.

Yen, Connor Ethan↗

In Situ Observation of Domain Wall Lateral Creeping in a Ferroelectric Capacitor

As a promising candidate for next-generation nonvolatile memory devices, ferroelectric oxide films exhibit many emergent phenomena with functional applications, making understanding polarization switching and domain evolution behaviors of fundamental importance. However, tracking domain wall motion in ferroelectric oxide films with high spatial resolution remains challenging. Here, in this study, an in situ biasing approach for direct atomic-scale observations of domain nucleation and sideways motion is presented. By accurately controlling the applied electric field, the lateral translational speed of the domain wall can decrease to less than 2.2 Å s −1 , which is observable with atomic resolution STEM imaging. In situ observations on a capacitor structured PbZr 0.1 Ti 0.9 O 3 /La 0.7 Sr 0.3 MnO 3 heterojunction demonstrate the unique creeping behavior of a domain wall under a critical electric field, with the atomic structure of the creeping domain wall revealed. Moreover, the evolution of the metastable domain wall forms an elongated morphology, which contains a large proportion of charged segments. Phase-field simulations unveil the competition between gradient, elastic, and electrostatic energies that decide this unique domain wall creeping and morphology variation. This work paves the way toward a complete fundamental understanding of domain wall physics and potential modulations of domain wall properties in real devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances

The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗