Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “spatial prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Program of research in severe storms

Two modeling areas, the development of a mesoscale chemistry-meteorology interaction model, and the development of a combined urban chemical kinetics-transport model are examined. The problems associated with developing a three dimensional combined meteorological-chemical kinetics computer program package are defined. A similar three dimensional hydrostatic real time model which solves the fundamental Navier-Stokes equations for nonviscous flow is described. An urban air quality simulation model, developed to predict the temporal and spatial distribution of reactive and nonreactive gases in and around an urban area and to support a remote sensor evaluation program is reported.

Source record↗

Video compression using conditional replenishment and motion prediction

A study of a low-rate monochrome video compression system is presentd in this paper. This system is a conditional-replenishment coder that uses two-dimensional Walsh-transform coding within each video frame. The conditional-replenishment algorithm works by transmitting only the portions of an image that are changing in time. This system is augmented with a motn-prediction algorithm that measures spatial dispalcement parameters from frame to frame, and codes the data using these parameters. A comparison is made between the conditional-replenishment system with, and without, the motion-predictinalgorthm. Subsampling in time is ued to maintain the data rate rate at a fixed value. Average bit rates of 1 bit/picture element (pel) to 1/16 bit/pel are considered. The resultant performance of the compression simulations is presented in terms of the average frame rates produced.

Hein, D. N.↗

Influence of a finite scattering volume on the determination of electron-impact coherence parameters

Superelastic electron scattering from laser-excited Ba-138 ...6s6p (1)P is investigated both theoretically and experimentally. The theoretical framework is developed and incorporated into a model of a realistic scattering geometry of finite spatial extent. Model calculations predict that the dependence of the superelastic scattering intensity on the linear polarization direction of the laser beam can be severely distorted due to the existence of a finite scattering volume. Measurements obtained confirm the presence of this distortion and are well described by the model calculations. Conclusions are drawn concerning the influence of this effect on the extraction of electron-impact coherence parameters.

Zetner, P. W.↗

Mid-Infrared Observational and Theoretical Studies of Star Formation and Early Solar Systems

The first 2 years of this program were used to make mid-IR observations of regions of star formation in the Orion nebula with the UCSD mid-IR camera at the UCSD/University of Minnesota telescope at Mt. Lemmon. These observations attempted to make the first systematic study of an extended region, known to have newly forming stars, and expected to have complex mid-IR emission. We discovered, to our surprise, that most of the thermal emission originated from extended sources rather than from point sources. This interesting observation made the analysis of the data much more complex, since the chop/nod procedures used at these wavelengths produce a differential measurement of the emission in one region compared to that in the adjacent region. Disentangling complex extended emission in such a situation is very difficult. In parallel with this work we were also observing comets in the thermal infrared, the other component of the original proposal. Some spectacular data on the comet Swift-Tuttle was acquired and published. A changing jet structure observed over a 2 week period is described. The rotation period of the comet can be measured at 66 hours. The size of the nucleus can also be estimated (at 30 km) from the observed excess flux from the nucleus. These data have lead to the development of models describing the action of dust particles of differing sizes and composition leaving the nucleus. The spatial distribution of the predicted IR emission has been compared to the observed jet structures, leading to estimates of both particles sizes, relative amounts of silicate vs organic grains, and the amounts of dust emitted in the jets vs isotopic emission.

Jones, Barbara↗

Satellite Proving Ground for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The key mission of the Satellite Proving Ground is to demonstrate new satellite observing data, products and capabilities in the operational environment to be ready on Day 1 to use the GOES-R suite of measurements. Algorithms, tools, and techniques must be tested, validated, and assessed by end users for their utility before they are finalized and incorporated into forecast operations. The GOES-R Proving Ground for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) focuses on evaluating how the infusion of the new technology, algorithms, decision aids, or tailored products integrate with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks; nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing forecasts and warning products. Additionally, the testing concept fosters operation and development staff interactions which will improve training materials and support documentation development. Real-time proxy total lightning data from regional VHF lightning mapping arrays (LMA) in Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma, Cape Canaveral Florida, and the Washington, DC Greater Metropolitan Area are the cornerstone for the GLM Proving Ground. The proxy data will simulate the 8 km Event, Group and Flash data that will be generated by GLM. Tailored products such as total flash density at 1-2 minute intervals will be provided for display in AWIPS-2 to select NWS forecast offices and national centers such as the Storm Prediction Center. Additional temporal / spatial combinations are being investigated in coordination with operational needs and case-study proxy data and prototype visualizations may also be generated from the NASA heritage Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector data. End users will provide feedback on the utility of products in their operational environment, identify use cases and spatial/temporal scales of interest, and provide feedback to the developers for adjusted or new products.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Cavities of Weak Magnetic Field Strength in the Wake of FTEs: Results from Global Magnetospheric MHD Simulations

We use the global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code BATS-R-US to model multipoint observations of Flux Transfer Event (FTE) signatures. Simulations with high spatial and temporal resolution predict that cavities of weak magnetic field strength protruding into the magnetosphere trail FTEs. These predictions are consistent with recently reported multi-point Cluster observations of traveling magnetopause erosion regions (TMERs).

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

Ice Accretion Roughness Variations on a Hybrid CRM65-Midspan Wing Model

Ice accretion roughness measurements were performed in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at NASA Glenn Research Center for the Hybrid CRM65-Midspan model in a range of icing conditions. The Hybrid CRM65-Midspan model was chosen for this investigation because 1) the model exhibits high sweep relative to models previously explored in the roughness investigations, 2) the model has leading edge characteristics similar to wing shapes currently used in mid-size commercial airliners, and 3) the sweep and thickness ratios relate better to hybrid lifting body designs for N+2 and N+3 vehicles than other models available. The investigation consisted of multiple sets of tests which focused on 1) 0-angle of attack cases replicating the conditions employed by Anderson et al. (1998) using both Appendix C and SLD cloud conditions, 2) cases based on the “Max Scallop” case by Broeren et al. (2016) and a “High Temperature” case with cloud properties similar to the “Max Scallop” case. Additional tests were performed 1) based on the “Max Scallop” case with variations in freestream static temperature and 2) using test section speeds near 10,000-hold flight conditions. The point clouds were characterized using the approach of McClain and Kreeger (2013) for the ice roughness variations and using the approach of McClain (2016) for the mean ice thickness variations. The resulting roughness and mean thickness variations generally follow the temporal scaling previously identified using on airfoil models without sweep, but the collapse of the time progression profiles is not as tight as found for past measurements on models without sweep. LEWICE and modified panel-method predictions were used explore spatial roughness variations and to compare to the roughness correlations developed by McClain et al. (2021) for the “Max Scallop” cases.

Icing↗

Real-Time Movement-Based Traffic Volume Prediction at Signalized Intersections

The traffic volume of each movement at signalized intersections can provide valuable information on real-time traffic conditions that enable traffic control systems to dynamically respond to the fluctuated traffic demands. Real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction is challenging due to various nonlinear spatial relationships at different locations/approaches and the complicated underlying temporal dependencies. In this study, a novel deep intersection spatial-temporal network (DISTN) is developed for real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections, which considers both spatial and temporal features by the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively. In addition, the within-day, daily, and weekly periodic trends of traffic volume are also considered in the proposed model. This is the first time that a deep-learning method has been applied for movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections. In the numerical experiment, the proposed model is evaluated using real-world data and simulation data to demonstrate its effectiveness. The impacts of various structures of traffic networks on the proposed model are also discussed. Results show that the proposed model outperforms some of the state-of-the-art volume prediction methods currently in the literature.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Highly diverse and unknown viruses may enhance Antarctic endoliths’ adaptability

Abstract Background Rock-dwelling microorganisms are key players in ecosystem functioning of Antarctic ice free-areas. Yet, little is known about their diversity and ecology, and further still, viruses in these communities have been largely unexplored despite important roles related to host metabolism and nutrient cycling. To begin to address this, we present a large-scale viral catalog from Antarctic rock microbial communities. Results We performed metagenomic analyses on rocks from across Antarctica representing a broad range of environmental and spatial conditions, and which resulted in a predicted viral catalog comprising > 75,000 viral operational taxonomic units (vOTUS). We found largely undescribed, highly diverse and spatially structured virus communities which had predicted auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) with functions indicating that they may be potentially influencing bacterial adaptation and biogeochemistry. Conclusion This catalog lays the foundation for expanding knowledge of virosphere diversity, function, spatial ecology, and dynamics in extreme environments. This work serves as a step towards exploring adaptability of microbial communities in the face of a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Current lightning predictions are uncertain because they rely on empirical diagnostic relationships and often use coarse-scale climate scenario simulations in which deep convection is parameterized. Previous studies demonstrated that simulations with convection permitting resolutions improve lightning predictions compared to coarser-grid simulations using convection parameterizations for different geographical locations but not over the boreal zone. In this study, lightning simulations with the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model are evaluated over a domain including the Great Slave Lake in Canada, for six lightning seasons. The simulations are performed at convection parameterized (9 km) and convection-permitting (3 km) resolution using the Goddard 4ICE and the Thompson microphysics schemes. Four lightning indices are evaluated against observations from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, in terms of spatiotemporal frequency distribution, spatial pattern, daily climatology, and an event-based overall skill assessment. The Thompson scheme is, regardless of the spatial resolution, superior to the Goddard 4ICE scheme in predicting daily climatology but worse in predicting the spatial patterns of lightning occurrence. Results indicate that lightning estimation benefits from modeling at convection-permitting resolution, in particular for the ice based lightning indices. In contrast, the product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate proved to be the most robust index that was largely invariant to varying spatial resolution. Finally, this study reveals issues of the models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of lightning well, which might be related to an insufficient representation of land surface heterogeneity, including peatlands, in the study area.

Jonas Mortelmans↗

On the Morphodynamics of a Wide Class of Large‐Scale Meandering Rivers: Insights Gained by Coupling LES With Sediment‐Dynamics

Abstract In meandering rivers, interactions between flow, sediment transport, and bed topography affect diverse processes, including bedform development and channel migration. Predicting how these interactions affect the spatial patterns and magnitudes of bed deformation in meandering rivers is essential for various river engineering and geoscience problems. Computational fluid dynamics simulations can predict river morphodynamics at fine temporal and spatial scales but have traditionally been challenged by the large scale of natural rivers. We conducted coupled large‐eddy simulation and bed morphodynamics simulations to create a unique database of hydro‐morphodynamic data sets for 42 meandering rivers with a variety of planform shapes and large‐scale geometrical features that mimic natural meanders. For each simulated river, the database includes (a) bed morphology, (b) three‐dimensional mean velocity field, and (c) bed shear stress distribution under bankfull flow conditions. The calculated morphodynamics results at dynamic equilibrium revealed the formation of scour and deposition patterns near the outer and inner banks, respectively, while the location of point bars and scour regions around the apexes of the meander bends is found to vary as a function of the radius of curvature of the bends to the width ratio. A new mechanism is proposed that explains this seemingly paradoxical finding. The high‐fidelity simulation results generated in this work provide researchers and scientists with a rich numerical database for morphodynamics and bed shear stress distributions in large‐scale meandering rivers to enable systematic investigation of the underlying phenomena and support a range of river engineering applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the co-assembly of binary nanoparticles

Abstract In this work, we present a binary assembly model that can predict the co-assembly structure and spatial frequency spectra of monodispersed nanoparticles with two different particle sizes. The approach relies on an iterative algorithm based on geometric constraints, which can simulate the assembly patterns of particles with two distinct diameters, size distributions, and at various mixture ratios on a planar surface. The two-dimensional spatial-frequency spectra of the modeled assembles can be analyzed using fast Fourier transform analysis to examine their frequency content. The simulated co-assembly structures and spectra are compared with assembled nanoparticles fabricated using transfer coating method are in qualitative agreement with the experimental results. The co-assembly model can also be used to predict the peak spatial frequency and the full-width at half-maximum bandwidth, which can lead to the design of the structure spectra by selection of different monodispersed particles. This work can find applications in fabrication of non-periodic nanostructures for functional surfaces, light extraction structures, and broadband nanophotonics.

Mohanty, Saurav (ORCID:0009000302592855)↗

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

Controls and variability of soil respiration temperature sensitivity across China

Understanding the temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) of soil respiration is critical for benchmarking the potential intensity of regional and global terrestrial soil carbon fluxes-climate feedbacks. Although field observations have demonstrated the strong spatial heterogeneity of Q 10 , a significant knowledge gap still exists regarding to the factors driving spatial and temporal variabilities of Q 10 at regional scales. Here, therefore, we used a machine learning approach to predict Q 10 from 1994 to 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1 km across China from 515 field observations at 5 cm soil depth using climate, soil and vegetation variables. Predicted Q 10 varied from 1.54 to 4.17, with an area-weighted average of 2.52. There was no significant temporal trend for Q 10 (p = 0.32), but annual vegetation production (indicated by normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was positively correlated to it (p < 0.01). Spatially, soil organic carbon (SOC) was the most important driving factor in 62 % of the land area across China, and varied greatly, demonstrating soil controls on the spatial pattern of Q 10 . These findings highlighted different environmental controls on the spatial and temporal pattern of soil respiration Q 10 , which should be considered to improve global biogeochemical models used to predict the spatial and temporal patterns of soil carbon fluxes to ongoing climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects

Researchers at New Mexico Tech, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), and other collaborators are developing a methodology to improve characterization of stress in the subsurface by means of a model-based inversion of reservoir engineering data, time lapse seismic measurements, and microseismicity. Historically, various geophysical techniques have been used in efforts to understand the state of stress in the subsurface through direct and indirect imaging of stress sensitive features (faults and fractures) and observations of transient stress related observations (time variant elastic moduli and microseismicity). Standard direct and indirect techniques for seismic fault and fracture imaging suffer from detectability limits due to reliance on high data quality and multiplicity. Variations in effective elastic properties from inversion of high quality seismic (Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP)) data may be used to infer stress near the wellbore through integration with independent experimental characterization of the stress-velocity relationship. Given a sufficiently robust observation network, microseismic emissions may be inverted to characterize focal mechanisms which, together with supporting assumptions and constraints, inform estimates of in-situ stress. While each of these techniques contributes in part to the characterization of stress within limited spatial and temporal domains, no one method provides an unambiguous stress measurement or a predictive capability over a site scale spatial extent. Challenges associated with solution non-uniqueness, measurement ambiguity, and irregular sampling may be greatly minimized through combination of one or more of independent measurements within a common framework in which realistic geological, hydrodynamic, geomechanical, and seismological constituent process models may act as constraints.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Helicopter noise prediction - The current status and future direction

The paper takes stock of the progress, assesses the current prediction capabilities, and forecasts the direction of future helicopter noise prediction research. The acoustic analogy approach, specifically, theories based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equations, are the most widely used for deterministic noise sources. Thickness and loading noise can be routinely predicted given good plane motion and blade loading inputs. Blade-vortex interaction noise can also be predicted well with measured input data, but prediction of airloads with the high spatial and temporal resolution required for BVI is still difficult. Current semiempirical broadband noise predictions are useful and reasonably accurate. New prediction methods based on a Kirchhoff formula and direct computation appear to be very promising, but are currently very demanding computationally.

Brentner, Kenneth S.↗

The numerical simulation of the evolution of a Saharan dust outbreak by using a general prognostic aerosol model

A three-dimensional model is developed that explicitly predicts the evolution of the spatial distributions of aerosols utilizing a time-dependent, initial value prognostic aerosol model based on aerosol physicochemical processes, a knowledge of aerosol sinks and sources, and the predicted motions of the atmosphere. These models serve a useful purpose in determining standardized aerosol spectra for utilization in radiative transfer calculations. The first numerical prediction of a Saharan dust outbreak evolution is described. It is shown that the results are in qualitative agreement with measurements despite the fact that in this preliminary simulation the generation of the dust depended upon several empirically based assumptions. IR satellite photographs taken during GATE are being examined in an attempt to determine the sources of the dust.

Westphal, Douglas L.↗