A heterogeneity model comparison of highly resolved statistically anisotropic aquifers
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Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R.↗
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Cosmology with persistent homology: a Fisher forecast
Abstract Persistent homology naturally addresses the multi-scale topological characteristics of the large-scale structure as a distribution of clusters, loops, and voids. We apply this tool to the dark matter halo catalogs from theQuijotesimulations, and build a summary statistic for comparison with the joint power spectrum and bispectrum statistic regarding their information content on cosmological parameters and primordial non-Gaussianity. Through a Fisher analysis, we find that constraints from persistent homology are tighter for 8 out of the 10 parameters by margins of 13–50%. The complementarity of the two statistics breaks parameter degeneracies, allowing for a further gain in constraining power when combined. We run a series of consistency checks to consolidate our results, and conclude that our findings motivate incorporating persistent homology into inference pipelines for cosmological survey data.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Comparison of the spatial statistics of random and defined-sequence photoresist films
The resolution-line edge roughness-sensitivity tradeoff has motivated the exploration of potential improvements using defined sequence polymers and polymer-bound photoacid generators and quenchers. We characterize the internal structures of positive tone photoresist polymer films formed from defined sequence polymers and compare them with random copolymers of the same composition. We model their imaging to connect initially to developable film structures. We use a polymer packing algorithm to simulate films of diverse compositions and locations of photoacid generators and quenchers, using the composition of an ESCAP photoresist. We use a simple extreme ultraviolet exposure-deprotection algorithm to model developable image formation within them. In all cases, the spatial distribution of chemical moieties in the film for defined sequence polymers is nearly indistinguishable from random copolymers. We evaluate several exposure-deprotection scenarios and find that a defined sequence copolymer has a distinctive developable image under certain circumstances. The use of defined sequence polymers within a photoresist layer does not automatically result in improved imaging; however, they do have some characteristics different from random polymers of the same composition. Further study of these characteristics may provide a route to improved control over the nanoscale imaging process.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California
Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Site comparison for optical visibility statistics in southern California
Negotiations are under way to locate an atmospheric visibility monitoring (AVM) observatory at Mount Lemmon, just north of Tucson, Arizona. Two more observatories will be located in the southwestern U.S. The observatories are being employed to improve a weather model for deep-space-to-ground optical communications. This article explains the factors considered in choosing a location and recommends Table Mountain Observatory as the location for another AVM facility.
Cowles, K.↗
Comparison of Atmospheric Delay Statistics from Deep Space Network Arrays and Nearby Test Interferometers
Several techniques have been explored and demonstrated that allow for greater data return on space-to-ground links. Among these techniques, arraying several smaller diameter dish antennas together is one method used in several arenas. These arrays can achieve larger effective area and gain than are available from a single larger antenna. This technique is routinely used by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) at 8.4 GHz where the incoming signals are much weaker than those experienced by the near-Earth satellite community. When considering arraying at much higher frequencies such as 32 GHz deep-space Ka-band, the phase alignment of the individual antenna signals is significantly disrupted by atmospheric turbulence. Since 2012, several downlink array demonstrations have been conducted using 32 GHz carrier signals emitted by the deep space probes Cassini and Kepler. Site test interferometers (STIs) that receive signals from geostationary satellites have been deployed at all three DSN tracking complexes for long-term monitoring of atmospheric delay fluctuations. In a previous DSN array demonstration study involving the Cassini spacecraft, it was shown that statistics of the adjusted STI phase fluctuations matched the statistics of concurrent array demonstration phase fluctuations. These adjustments accounted for differences in antenna separation, elevation angle and spacecraft frequencies. The STI antenna separations were about 200 m and the DSN antenna separations were about 300 m. These adjustments made use of the thick-layer turbulence model that was applicable to the Goldstone desert climate during the summer months for which the data were acquired. In this paper, we report on the results of additional array demonstrations involving the Kepler spacecraft and compare the adjusted STI phase fluctuations with those seen by a nearby two-element array of 34 m diameter antennas tracking Kepler’s 32 GHz signal at the Goldstone, California and Madrid, Spain DSN sites. We also discuss results from a demonstration using an array over a longer 12.5 km baseline. The Cassini and Kepler array demonstrations were found to validate the long term statistics acquired from several years of STI data as well as the models used to adjust the statistics for the conditions of an array. These statistics represent reliable estimates of the phase fluctuations that would be seen by an array tracking a deep space signal after applying appropriate adjustments for a given array configuration, elevation angle profile and observing frequency.
Morabito, David D.↗
Comparison of atmospheric delay statistics from Deep Space Network arrays and nearby site test interferometers
UNKNOWN
"D'Addario, Larry", 'Finley, Susan↗
Monitoring Uranium Transformations Determined by the Evolution of Biogeochemical Processes
Our contribution to the larger project (ANL) was the phylogenetic analysis of evolved communities capable of reducing metals including uranium. We previously reported structural shifts in microbial communities of microcosms constructed with inocula from uranium-contaminated sediment from the Field Research Center (FRC). Incubations were for up to eleven months and samples were taken from both the top and bottom of the sediment of duplicate microcosms incubated at room temperature anaerobically. The biological indices of the microcosm bacterial communities revealed that under strong selective force (e.g., sulfate and uranium) some populations became dominant and the community diversity appeared reduced. With the reduction of U(VI), bacterial community diversity appeared to recovere to its T0 level. Our clone library results revealed that some bacterial populations were persistent in the microcosms during the 11 month incubation period, while others became more abundant or less detectable in response to the prevailing environmental factors. According to the Ribosomal Database Project’s (RDP) Classifier tool, beta-Proteobacteria and Acidobacteria (e.g., Gp8) were highly abundant in the microcosms throughout the incubation period, whereas Desulfovibrio, a known sulfate-reducing Genus within which uranium reducing capabilities also reside, was substantially more abundant at early sampling times when sulfate and uranium were abundant, compared to at the end of the incubation period (11 months). We speculate that the decrease in abundance of Desulfovibrio with time was caused by consumption of sulfate and uranium during early stages of incubation. Interestingly, groups identified by the RDP as unclassified bacteria and unclassified Desulfobacteraceae responded to the selective forces differently. These two groups appeared to be more robust at the end of the incubation period when the strong initial selective force of sulfate and uranium was absent or diminished. The statistical community comparison with UniFrac indicated that early and late stage samples were evolved from the original inoculum. The RDP library comparison tool revealed that bacterial community populations shifted at statistically significant amounts according to time and space. For example, as mentioned above, early stage Desulfovibrio and Desulfobacteraceae abundances were significantly different from those where found at late incubation stage (P=0.01). Similarly, iron-oxidizing bacterium Thiobacillus was significantly more abundant at late sampling times. These results, combined with data from our colleagues were submitted to and accepted for publication in Environmental Science & Technology.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Comparing Emulation Methods for Computer Models with High Dimensional Output
This Master’s Capstone project will present a comparison of statistical models for computer simulation studies. The four models included in this comparison study were chosen for both their proven and diverse methodologies. We will present a case study on hurricane flood data in the Delaware bay which highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model when applied to a very large spatial field. As computers have gotten faster, we have become interested in modeling increasingly large spatial fields in both size and resolution. Statistical algorithms that are able to efficiently handle these fields have never been more important. We therefore find this comparison to be extremely topical.
42 ENGINEERING↗
An Assessment of Land Surface and Lightning Characteristics Associated with Lightning-Initiated Wildfires
Can we use modeled information of the land surface and characteristics of lightning beyond flash occurrence to increase the identification and prediction of wildfires? Combine observed cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes with real-time land surface model output, and Compare data with areas where lightning did not start a wildfire to determine what land surface conditions and lightning characteristics were responsible for causing wildfires. Statistical differences between suspected fire-starters and non-fire-starters were peak-current dependent 0-10 cm Volumetric and Relative Soil Moisture comparisons were statistically dependent to at least the p = 0.05 independence level for both polarity flash types Suspected fire-starters typically occurred in areas of lower soil moisture than non-fire-starters. GVF value comparisons were only found to be statistically dependent for -CG flashes. However, random sampling of the -CG non-fire starter dataset revealed that this relationship may not always hold.
wildfire↗
Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 12, No. 1
Topics discussed include: a) Data Mining Methods Applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Comparison to Standard Statistical Methods; b) Financial Comparisons across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry; c) Carving a Niche for the "No-Frills" Carrier, Air Arabia, in Oil-Rich Skies; d) Situational Leadership in Air Traffic Control; and e) The Very Light Jet Arrives: Stakeholders and Their Perceptions.
Bowers, Brent D.↗
Comparison of Grammar-Based and Statistical Language Models Trained on the Same Data
This paper presents a methodologically sound comparison of the performance of grammar-based (GLM) and statistical-based (SLM) recognizer architectures using data from the Clarissa procedure navigator domain. The Regulus open source packages make this possible with a method for constructing a grammar-based language model by training on a corpus. We construct grammar-based and statistical language models from the same corpus for comparison, and find that the grammar-based language models provide better performance in this domain. The best SLM version has a semantic error rate of 9.6%, while the best GLM version has an error rate of 6.0%. Part of this advantage is accounted for by the superior WER and Sentence Error Rate (SER) of the GLM (WER 7.42% versus 6.27%, and SER 12.41% versus 9.79%). The rest is most likely accounted for by the fact that the GLM architecture is able to use logical-form-based features, which permit tighter integration of recognition and semantic interpretation.
Hockey, Beth Ann↗
Identifying Predictive Factors for Incident Reports in Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy
Purpose: To describe radiation therapy cases during which voluntary incident reporting occurred; and identify patient- or treatment-specific factors that place patients at higher risk for incidents. Methods and Materials: We used our institution's incident learning system to build a database of patients with incident reports filed between January 2011 and December 2013. Patient- and treatment-specific data were reviewed for all patients with reported incidents, which were classified by step in the process and root cause. A control group of patients without events was generated for comparison. Summary statistics, likelihood ratios, and mixed-effect logistic regression models were used for group comparisons. Results: The incident and control groups comprised 794 and 499 patients, respectively. Common root causes included documentation errors (26.5%), communication (22.5%), technical treatment planning (37.5%), and technical treatment delivery (13.5%). Incidents were more frequently reported in minors (age <18 years) than in adult patients (37.7% vs 0.4%, P<.001). Patients with head and neck (16% vs 8%, P<.001) and breast (20% vs 15%, P=.03) primaries more frequently had incidents, whereas brain (18% vs 24%, P=.008) primaries were less frequent. Larger tumors (17% vs 10% had T4 lesions, P=.02), and cases on protocol (9% vs 5%, P=.005) or with intensity modulated radiation therapy/image guided intensity modulated radiation therapy (52% vs 43%, P=.001) were more likely to have incidents. Conclusions: We found several treatment- and patient-specific variables associated with incidents. These factors should be considered by treatment teams at the time of peer review to identify patients at higher risk. Larger datasets are required to recommend changes in care process standards, to minimize safety risks.
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
Use of petroleum-based correlations and estimation methods for synthetic fuels
Correlations of hydrogen content with aromatics content, heat of combustion, and smoke point are derived for some synthetic fuels prepared from oil and coal syncrudes. Comparing the results of the aromatics content with correlations derived for petroleum fuels shows that the shale-derived fuels fit the petroleum-based correlations, but the coal-derived fuels do not. The correlations derived for heat of combustion and smoke point are comparable to some found for petroleum-based correlations. Calculated values of hydrogen content and of heat of combustion are obtained for the synthetic fuels by use of ASTM estimation methods. Comparisons of the measured and calculated values show biases in the equations that exceed the critical statistics values. Comparison of the measured hydrogen content by the standard ASTM combustion method with that by a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) method shows a decided bias. The comparison of the calculated and measured NMR hydrogen contents shows a difference similar to that found with petroleum fuels.
Antoine, A. C.↗
Dedicated breast CT: Fibroglandular volume measurements in a diagnostic population
Purpose: To determine the mean and range of volumetric glandular fraction (VGF) of the breast in a diagnostic population using a high-resolution flat-panel cone-beam dedicated breast CT system. This information is important for Monte Carlo-based estimation of normalized glandular dose coefficients and for investigating the dependence of VGF on breast dimensions, race, and pathology. Methods: Image data from a clinical trial investigating the role of dedicated breast CT that enrolled 150 women were retrospectively analyzed to determine the VGF. The study was conducted in adherence to a protocol approved by the institutional human subjects review boards and written informed consent was obtained from all study participants. All participants in the study were assigned BI-RADS{sup Registered-Sign} 4 or 5 as per the American College of Radiology assessment categories after standard diagnostic work-up and underwent dedicated breast CT exam prior to biopsy. A Gaussian-kernel based fuzzy c-means algorithm was used to partition the breast CT images into adipose and fibroglandular tissue after segmenting the skin. Upon determination of the accuracy of the algorithm with a phantom, it was applied to 137 breast CT volumes from 136 women. VGF was determined for each breast and the mean and range were determined. Pathology results with classification as benign, malignant, and hyperplasia were available for 132 women, and were used to investigate if the distributions of VGF varied with pathology. Results: The algorithm was accurate to within {+-}1.9% in determining the volume of an irregular shaped phantom. The study mean ({+-} inter-breast SD) for the VGF was 0.172 {+-} 0.142 (range: 0.012-0.719). VGF was found to be negatively correlated with age, breast dimensions (chest-wall to nipple length, pectoralis to nipple length, and effective diameter at chest-wall), and total breast volume, and positively correlated with fibroglandular volume. Based on pathology, pairwise statistical analysis (Mann-Whitney test) indicated that at the 0.05 significance level, there was no significant difference in distributions of VGF without adjustment for age between malignant and nonmalignant breasts (p= 0.41). Pairwise comparisons of the distributions of VGF in increasing order of mammographic breast density indicated all comparisons were statistically significant (p < 0.002). Conclusions: This study used a different clinical prototype breast CT system than that in previous studies to image subjects from a different geographical region, and used a different algorithm for analysis of image data. The mean VGF estimated from this study is within the range reported in previous studies, indicating that the choice of 50% glandular weight fraction to represent an average breast for Monte Carlo-based estimation of normalized glandular dose coefficients in mammography needs revising. In the study, the distributions of VGF did not differ significantly with pathology.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Fast strength model characterization using Bayesian statistics
A variety of flow stress models exist with new models constantly being developed. These models aim to approximate the strength of materials in a variety of regimes from quasistatic loading through shock scenarios. All models contain an array of parameters which need to be tuned to the material under study. Some models perform well under limited conditions, requiring adjustment of the parameters when venturing outside of those predefined ranges. Other models perform well over a wide range of conditions with a set of parameters, but may be outperformed by other models optimized on a tighter range of conditions. Recent research by Los Alamos demonstrated the ability to optimize the Johnson Cook (JC) model using a set of 3 plate-impact experiments on Aluminum. They utilized Bayesian statistics and emulation to determine optimal parameters for the model with a quantification of parameter uncertainty. We present an extension of this capability to incorporate velocimetry from plate-impact tests, stress-strain data from split Hopkinson pressure bar and quasistatic compression tests, plus profiles from Taylor cylinders in a unified fashion. Statistically robust comparisons of the performance and uncertainty of different realizations of the JC flow stress model were carried out based on calibration to several possible combinations of these three different experiment types.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Frisker Response to Soil Concentrations (Bq/g) Compared to NaI(Tl) - 19338
The Chalk River Laboratories (CRL) began nuclear operations in 1947. Portions of the site land areas have become radiologically contaminated through the 1952 National Reactor Experimental (NRX) accident and/or waste management activities over the past 70 years of site operations. The Environmental Remediation Projects Group (ERP) characterizes, and performs risk assessment, and remedial actions, as required over these contaminated land areas. ERP work activities are subject to controls established by CRL's Radiation Protection (RP) Group such that RP establishes the radiological controls and monitoring requirements for ERP field work activities. The different methods of monitoring soil contamination between ERP and the RP program present some challenges in the interpretation and comparison of the two sets of results and the soil disposition. ERP utilizes NaI(Tl) scintillation detectors and MARSSIM land scanning techniques to measure soil concentrations between sample locations and in excavated materials. Whereas, RP utilizes surface contamination monitoring equipment in the form of a 15.5 cm{sup 2} open area pancake Geiger-Mueller (GM) tube detector to measure soil contamination levels reported in counts per minute (cpm). This paper presents a method to evaluate the theoretical best responses that could be obtained from surface contamination monitoring instrumentation for a known concentration (1 Bq/g) of various radionuclides. A static efficiency of cpm/Bq{sup -1} g{sup -1} is obtained from these calculations. These contamination monitoring sensitivities are then used in a MARSSIM scanning sensitivity equation and compared to the scanning sensitivity of an NaI(Tl) scintillation detector. The results demonstrate that the sensitivity of the frisker probes to particle radiations (betas for pancake) tend to fall in a range of only a few cpm/Bq{sup -1} g{sup -1}. Rather, the primary static response of the pancake probe to soil contamination is from gamma radiation where a value of 36 cpm/Bq{sup -1} g{sup -1} for Cs-137 was obtained at 2.54 cm distance without the application of scanning statistics. In comparison, a 7.6 cm x 7.6 cm NaI(Tl) detector has a Cs-137 static response factor of 10,000 cpm/Bq{sup -1} g{sup -1} at 15 cm distance without applying scanning statistics. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗