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At least 235 records · Page 13

Model-Based Fatigue Prognosis of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates Exhibiting Concurrent Damage Mechanisms

Prognostics of large composite structures is a topic of increasing interest in the field of structural health monitoring for aerospace, civil, and mechanical systems. Along with recent advancements in real-time structural health data acquisition and processing for damage detection and characterization, model-based stochastic methods for life prediction are showing promising results in the literature. Among various model-based approaches, particle-filtering algorithms are particularly capable in coping with uncertainties associated with the process. These include uncertainties about information on the damage extent and the inherent uncertainties of the damage propagation process. Some efforts have shown successful applications of particle filtering-based frameworks for predicting the matrix crack evolution and structural stiffness degradation caused by repetitive fatigue loads. Effects of other damage modes such as delamination, however, are not incorporated in these works. It is well established that delamination and matrix cracks not only co-exist in most laminate structures during the fatigue degradation process but also affect each other's progression. Furthermore, delamination significantly alters the stress-state in the laminates and accelerates the material degradation leading to catastrophic failure. Therefore, the work presented herein proposes a particle filtering-based framework for predicting a structure's remaining useful life with consideration of multiple co-existing damage-mechanisms. The framework uses an energy-based model from the composite modeling literature. The multiple damage-mode model has been shown to suitably estimate the energy release rate of cross-ply laminates as affected by matrix cracks and delamination modes. The model is also able to estimate the reduction in stiffness of the damaged laminate. This information is then used in the algorithms for life prediction capabilities. First, a brief summary of the energy-based damage model is provided. Then, the paper describes how the model is embedded within the prognostic framework and how the prognostics performance is assessed using observations from run-to-failure experiments

Prognostics↗

Hiereachical Bayesian Model for Combining Geochemical and Geophysical Data for Environmental Applications Software

Development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of aqueous geochemical parameters associated with in-situ bioremediation using surface spectral induced polarization (SIP) data and borehole geochemical measurements collected during a bioremediation experiment at a uranium-contaminated site near Rifle, Colorado. The SIP data are first inverted for Cole-Cole parameters including chargeability, time constant, resistivity at the DC frequency and dependence factor, at each pixel of two-dimensional grids using a previously developed stochastic method. Correlations between the inverted Cole-Cole parameters and the wellbore-based groundwater chemistry measurements indicative of key metabolic processes within the aquifer (e.g. ferrous iron, sulfate, uranium) were established and used as a basis for petrophysical model development. The developed Bayesian model consists of three levels of statistical sub-models: 1) data model, providing links between geochemical and geophysical attributes, 2) process model, describing the spatial and temporal variability of geochemical properties in the subsurface system, and 3) parameter model, describing prior distributions of various parameters and initial conditions. The unknown parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. By combining the temporally distributed geochemical data with the spatially distributed geophysical data, we obtain the spatio-temporal distribution of ferrous iron, sulfate and sulfide, and their associated uncertainity information. The obtained results can be used to assess the efficacy of the bioremediation treatment over space and time and to constrain reactive transport models.

Chen, Jinsong↗

Overview of Energy Life Cycle Analysis at NETL - LCAXVIII

This work was presented at the American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA) LCAXVIII Conference in Fort Collins, CO on September 25, 2018. At NETL, LCA is used as a tool and framework for undertaking a broad range of evaluations. This overview describes the LCA process at NETL, including unique application of stochastic methods to environmental and economic analyses, and shows highlights from several recent studies.

Skone, Timothy J.↗

Overview of Energy Life Cycle Analysis at NETL - LCAXVI

This work was presented at the American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA) LCAXVI Conference in Charleston, SC on September 27, 2016. At NETL, LCA is used as a tool and framework for undertaking a broad range of evaluations. This overview describes the LCA process at NETL, including unique application of stochastic methods to environmental and economic analyses, and shows highlights from several recent studies.

Skone, Timothy J.↗

Overview of Energy Life Cycle Analysis at NETL - LCAXVII

This work was presented at the American Center for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA) LCAXVIII Conference in Portsmouth, NH on October 5, 2017. At NETL, LCA is used as a tool and framework for undertaking a broad range of these types of evaluations. This overview describes the LCA process at NETL, including unique application of stochastic methods to environmental and economic analyses, and show highlights from several recent studies.

Skone, Timothy J.↗

List-Mode source injection algorithm for detectors with arbitrary pose and trajectory

environments, introducing actual sources is usually neither feasible nor economical. It is more practical to move the detector (whether airborne, vehicle-borne, or human-portable) through the test environment and then later artificially superimpose either measured or simulated source signatures on the recorded background data. We present a source injection (SI) algorithm that inserts source events into list-mode background data. It is designed to accommodate cases where “injection data” are available only at a limited set of locations. Stochastic methods are employed both to select source events from a measured dataset containing both source and background events, and to scale the number of selected events to match the field conditions of detector-source distance, air attenuation, acquisition duration, and the relative strength of the measured and injected sources. The algorithm is deployed as part of the Airborne Radiation Enhanced-sensor System (ARES) Advanced Technology Demonstration, and is applied to field data obtained using the ARES detector system. For this helicopter-borne detection system, we describe a practical ground-based measurement scheme for acquiring data for later injection. These data are then injected into background data acquired during flight, where arbitrary detector poses and trajectories are possible. Similar flight paths are traversed with and without actual 137Cs and 60Co sources present. SI is applied to the source-absent datasets, and the results are compared to the source-present datasets. SI output is found to be consistent with measured activity within the estimated uncertainties in GPS position and source strength.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2024 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the τ-leaping framework to past information. Using the Θ-trapezoidal τ-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k ≥ 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation of Osmotic Swelling by the Stochastic Immersed Boundary Method

We develop here computational methods for the simulation of osmotic swelling phenomena relevant to microscopic vesicles containing transformable solute molecules. We introduce stochastic immersed boundary methods (SIBMs) that can capture osmotically driven fluid transport through semipermeable elastic membranes subject to thermal fluctuations. We further develop numerical methods to handle within SIBMs an elastic shell model for a neo-Hookean material. Our extended SIBM allows for capturing osmotic swelling phenomena driven by concentration changes and interactions between a discrete collection of confined particles while accounting for the thermal fluctuations of the semipermeable membrane and the hydrodynamic transport of solvent. We use our computational methods to investigate osmotic phenomena in regimes that go beyond the classical Van't Hoff theory. We develop statistical mechanics theories for osmotic swelling of vesicles when there are significant interactions between particles that can transform over time. We validate our theoretical results against detailed computational simulations. Our methods are expected to be useful for a wide class of applications allowing for the simulation of osmotically driven flows, thermally fluctuating semipermeable elastic structures, and solute interactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Primal and Dual Integrated Force Methods Used for Stochastic Analysis

At the NASA Glenn Research Center, the primal and dual integrated force methods are being extended for the stochastic analysis of structures. The stochastic simulation can be used to quantify the consequence of scatter in stress and displacement response because of a specified variation in input parameters such as load (mechanical, thermal, and support settling loads), material properties (strength, modulus, density, etc.), and sizing design variables (depth, thickness, etc.). All the parameters are modeled as random variables with given probability distributions, means, and covariances. The stochastic response is formulated through a quadratic perturbation theory, and it is verified through a Monte Carlo simulation.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

A computational method for solving stochastic Itô–Volterra integral equations based on stochastic operational matrix for generalized hat basis functions

In this paper, a new computational method based on the generalized hat basis functions is proposed for solving stochastic Itô–Volterra integral equations. In this way, a new stochastic operational matrix for generalized hat functions on the finite interval [0,T] is obtained. By using these basis functions and their stochastic operational matrix, such problems can be transformed into linear lower triangular systems of algebraic equations which can be directly solved by forward substitution. Also, the rate of convergence of the proposed method is considered and it has been shown that it is O(1/(n{sup 2}) ). Further, in order to show the accuracy and reliability of the proposed method, the new approach is compared with the block pulse functions method by some examples. The obtained results reveal that the proposed method is more accurate and efficient in comparison with the block pule functions method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Stochastic reconstructions of spectral functions: Application to lattice QCD

Here, we present a detailed study of the applications of two stochastic approaches, stochastic optimization method (SOM) and stochastic analytical inference (SAI), to extract spectral functions from Euclidean correlation functions. SOM has the advantage that it does not require prior information. On the other hand, SAI is a more generalized method based on Bayesian inference. Under mean field approximation SAI reduces to the often-used maximum entropy method (MEM), and for a specific choice of the prior SAI becomes equivalent to SOM. To test the applicability of these two stochastic methods to lattice QCD, Firstly, we apply these methods to various reasonably chosen model correlation functions, and present detailed comparisons of the reconstructed spectral functions obtained from SOM, SAI and MEM. Next, we present similar studies for charmonia correlation functions obtained from lattice QCD computations using clover-improved Wilson fermions on large, fine, isotropic lattices at 0:75 and 1:5 T c , T c being the deconfinement transition temperature of a pure gluon plasma. We find that SAI and SOM give consistent results to MEM at these two temperatures.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis

Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A forward method for optimal stochastic nonlinear and adaptive control

A computational approach is taken to solve the optimal nonlinear stochastic control problem. The approach is to systematically solve the stochastic dynamic programming equations forward in time, using a nested stochastic approximation technique. Although computationally intensive, this provides a straightforward numerical solution for this class of problems and provides an alternative to the usual dimensionality problem associated with solving the dynamic programming equations backward in time. It is shown that the cost degrades monotonically as the complexity of the algorithm is reduced. This provides a strategy for suboptimal control with clear performance/computation tradeoffs. A numerical study focusing on a generic optimal stochastic adaptive control example is included to demonstrate the feasibility of the method.

Bayard, David S.↗

Slow-scale split-step tau-leap method for stiff stochastic chemical systems

Tau-leaping is a family of algorithms for the approximate simulation of the discrete state continuous time Markov chains. A motivation for the development of such methods can be found, for instance, in the fields of chemical kinetics and systems biology. It is known that the dynamical behavior of biochemical systems is often intrinsically stiff representing a serious challenge for their numerical approximation. The naive extension of stiff deterministic solvers to stochastic integration often yields numerical solutions with either impractically large relaxation times or incorrectly resolved covariance. In this paper, we propose a splitting heuristic which helps to resolve some of these issues. The proposed integrator contains a number of unknown parameters which are estimated for each particular problem from the moment equations of the corresponding linearized system. We show that this method is able to reproduce the exact mean and variance of the linear scalar test equation and demonstrates a good accuracy for the arbitrarily stiff systems at least in the linear case. The numerical examples for both linear and nonlinear systems are also provided, and the obtained results confirm the efficiency of the considered splitting approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗