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Results for “structural uncertainty quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2014

N2A: a computational tool for modeling from neurons to algorithms

The exponential increase in available neural data has combined with the exponential growth in computing (“Moore’s law”) to create new opportunities to understand neural systems at large scale and high detail. The ability to produce large and sophisticated simulations has introduced unique challenges to neuroscientists. Computational models in neuroscience are increasingly broad efforts, often involving the collaboration of experts in different domains. Furthermore, the size and detail of models have grown to levels for which understanding the implications of variability and assumptions is no longer trivial. Here, we introduce the model design platform N2A which aims to facilitate the design and validation of biologically realistic models. N2A uses a hierarchical representation of neural information to enable the integration of models from different users. N2A streamlines computational validation of a model by natively implementing standard tools in sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. The part-relationship representation allows both network-level analysis and dynamical simulations. We will demonstrate how N2A can be used in a range of examples, including a simple Hodgkin-Huxley cable model, basic parameter sensitivity of an 80/20 network, and the expression of the structural plasticity of a growing dendrite and stem cell proliferation and differentiation.

biologically realistic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutrino Emissivities as a Probe of the Internal Magnetic Fields of White Dwarfs

Abstract The evolution of white dwarfs (WDs) depends crucially on thermal processes. The plasma in their core can produce neutrinos that escape from the star, thus contributing to the energy loss. While in the absence of a magnetic field the main cooling mechanism is plasmon decay at high temperature and photon surface emission at low temperature, a large magnetic field in the core hiding beneath the surface even of ordinary WDs, and undetectable to spectropolarimetric measurements, could potentially leave an imprint in the cooling. In this paper, we revisit the contribution to WD cooling stemming from neutrino pair synchrotron radiation and the effects of the magnetic field on plasmon decay. Our key finding is that even if observations limit the magnetic field strength at the stellar surface, magnetic fields in the interior of WDs—with or without a surface magnetic field—can be strong enough to modify the cooling rate, with neutrino pair synchrotron emission being the most important contribution. This effect may not only be relevant for the quantification and interpretation of cooling anomalies, but suggests that the internal magnetic fields of WDs should be smaller than ∼ 6 × 10 11 G, slightly improving bounds coming from a stability requirement. While our simplified treatment of the WD structure implies that further studies are needed to reduce the systematic uncertainties, the estimates based on comparing the emissivities illustrate the potential of neutrino emission as a diagnostic tool to study the interior of WDs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved nuclear-structure corrections to the hyperfine splitting of electronic and muonic deuterium

We calculate the nuclear-structure correction to the hyperfine splitting in both electronic and muonic deuterium using interactions from chiral effective field theory. We explore the sensitivity to different parameterizations of the nucleon-nucleon force, study the convergence pattern in the order-by-order chiral expansion, and estimate remaining uncertainties. Our results are consistent with earlier calculations from pionless effective field theory, offering new insights for a robust uncertainty quantification. Thanks to the order-of-magnitude reduction in uncertainty achieved with chiral effective field theory, the two-photon exchange contribution in electronic deuterium agrees with experimental extractions within 0.5σ, in contrast to the 2.6σ discrepancy observed in muonic deuterium. This study lays the groundwork for extending TPE calculations to HFS in heavier atomic systems.

Chiral effective field theory↗
DOE OSTI2017

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analy- sis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncer- tainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused to- ward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is in- terested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assess- ment capability to RELAP-7, currently under develop-ment at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activates are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with soft- ware such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explaination of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ab initio symmetry-adapted approaches to nuclear reactions

In this review, we discuss recent applications of the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell-model (SA-NCSM) theory for study and prediction of structure and reactions of stable and unstable nuclei from light to medium mass range. We explore structure properties of neutron-rich He, Li, and Mg isotopes, with a focus on nuclear collectivity, clustering, and spectroscopic factors, as well as multi-particle excitations of utmost significance in the proximity of the drip lines. In addition, we present extensions of the SA-NCSM with continuum for determining the microscopic structure of reaction fragments, which enables calculations of reaction cross sections for targets from the lightest He to 40Ca, rooted in first principles. We illustrate this for neutron and proton elastic scattering, deuteron and alpha capture reactions, and alpha knock-out reactions. Furthermore, we discuss microscopic optical potentials with uncertainty quantification, a critical ingredient in many reaction models. As a result, we also discuss the impact of alpha clustering on reactions of significance to nuclear astrophysics, as well as on beta decays and beyond-the-standard-model physics.

Ab initio approaches to nuclear reactions↗
DOE OSTI2020

MatLib-1.0: Nuclear Material Properties Library

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) uses the computer code Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) to model steady-state and transient fuel behavior to support regulatory decisions. FAST relies on a material properties library (MatLib) that contains the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear materials and coolants of interest to support the US commercial nuclear industry. MatLib contains properties for a variety of nuclear fuels, cladding and other structural materials, gases, and coolants. In this document, material property correlations for the materials contained within MatLib are presented and discussed. When available, comparisons are made between the material property correlations and available data. Additionally, uncertainties are quantified on the material properties, which is then used by the NRC to support uncertainty quantification for best-estimate plus uncertainty safety evaluation reviews. This document describes MatLib-1.0, which is the first official version of the MatLib library. This document is one of a series of documents on FAST; the other documents detail the models used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

MatLib-1.1: Nuclear Material Properties Library: Developed under NQA-1-2017

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) uses the computer code Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) to model steady-state and transient fuel behavior to support regulatory decisions. FAST relies on a material properties library (MatLib) that contains the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear materials and coolants of interest to support the US commercial nuclear industry. MatLib contains properties for a variety of nuclear fuels, cladding and other structural materials, gases, and coolants. In this document, material property correlations for the materials contained within MatLib are presented and discussed. When available, comparisons are made between the material property correlations and available data. Additionally, uncertainties are quantified on the material properties, which is then used by the NRC to support uncertainty quantification for best-estimate plus uncertainty safety evaluation reviews. This document describes MatLib-1.1, which was updated from MatLib-1.0 to include the addition of Lua functionality and code changes for integration with FAST. The results of MatLib did not change between MatLib-1.0 and MatLib-1.1; however, the source code changes warranted incrementing the minor numbering of the software version number. This document is one of a series of documents on FAST; the other documents detail the models used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

MatLib-1.2.2: Nuclear Material Properties Library

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) uses the computer code Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) to model steady-state and transient fuel behavior to support regulatory decisions. FAST relies on a material properties library (MatLib) that contains the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear materials and coolants of interest to support the U.S. commercial nuclear industry. MatLib contains properties for a variety of nuclear fuels, cladding and other structural materials, gases, and coolants. In this document, material property correlations for the materials contained within MatLib are presented and discussed. When available, comparisons are made between the material property correlations and available data. Additionally, uncertainties are quantified on the material properties, which is then used by the NRC to support uncertainty quantification for best-estimate plus uncertainty safety evaluation reviews. This document describes MatLib-1.2.2, updated from MatLib-1.2.1 to include additional properties for metallic fuel. It is one of a series of documents on FAST; the other documents detail the models used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Technical Report on Quantifying Dependability Attributes of Software Based Safety Critical Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

With the current transition from analog to digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, the number and variety of software-based systems have significantly increased. The sophisticated nature and increasing complexity of software raises trust in these systems as a significant challenge. The trust placed in a software system is typically termed software dependability. Software dependability analysis faces uncommon challenges since software systems’ characteristics differ from those of hardware systems. The lack of systematic science-based methods for quantifying the dependability attributes in software-based instrumentation as well as control systems in safety critical applications has proved itself to be a significant inhibitor to the expanded use of modern digital technology in the nuclear industry. Dependability refers to the ability of a system to deliver a service that can be trusted. Dependability is commonly considered as a general concept that encompasses different attributes, e.g., reliability, safety, security, availability and maintainability. Dependability research has progressed significantly over the last few decades. For example, various assessment models and/or design approaches have been proposed for software reliability, software availability and software maintainability. Advances have also been made to integrate multiple dependability attributes, e.g., integrating security with other dependability attributes, measuring availability and maintainability, modeling reliability and availability, quantifying reliability and security, exploring the dependencies between security and safety and developing integrated analysis models. However, there is still a lack of understanding of the dependencies between various dependability attributes as a whole and of how such dependencies are formed. To address the need for quantification and give a more objective basis to the review process -- therefore reducing regulatory uncertainty -- measures and methods are needed to assess dependability attributes early on, as well as throughout the life-cycle process of software development. In this research, extensive expert opinion elicitation is used to identify the measures and methods for assessing software dependability. Semi-structured questionnaires were designed to elicit expert knowledge. A new notation system, Causal Mechanism Graphing, was developed to extract and represent such knowledge. The Causal Mechanism Graphs were merged, thus, obtaining the consensus knowledge shared by the domain experts. In this report, we focus on how software contributes to dependability. However, software dependability is not discussed separately from the context of systems or socio-technical systems. Specifically, this report focuses on software dependability, reliability, safety, security, availability, and maintainability. Our research was conducted in the sequence of stages found below. Each stage is further examined in its corresponding chapter. Stage 1 (Chapter 2): Elicitation of causal maps describing the dependencies between dependability attributes. These causal maps were constructed using expert opinion elicitation. This chapter describes the expert opinion elicitation process, the questionnaire design, the causal map construction method and the causal maps obtained. Stage 2 (Chapter 3): Elicitation of the causal map describing the occurrence of the event of interest for each dependability attribute. The causal mechanisms for the “event of interest” were extracted for each of the software dependability attributes. The “event of interest” for a dependability attribute is generally considered to be the “attribute failure”, e.g. security failure. The extraction was based on the analysis of expert elicitation results obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 (Chapter 4): Identification of relevant measurements. Measures for the “events of interest” and their causal mechanisms were obtained from expert opinion elicitation for each of the software dependability attributes. The measures extracted are presented in this chapter. Stage 4 (Chapter 5): Assessment of the coverage of the causal maps via measures. Coverage was assessed to determine whether the measures obtained were sufficient to quantify software dependability, and what measures are further required. Stage 5 (Chapter 6): Identification of “missing” measures and measurement approaches for concepts not covered. New measures, for concepts that had not been covered sufficiently as determined in Stage 4, were identified using supplementary expert opinion elicitation as well as literature reviews. Stage 6 (Chapter 7): Building of a detailed quantification model based on the causal maps and measurements obtained. Ability to derive such a quantification model shows that the causal models and measurements derived from the previous stages (Stage 1 to Stage 5) can form the technical basis for developing dependability quantification models. Scope restrictions have led us to prioritize this demonstration effort. The demonstration was focused on a critical system, i.e. the reactor protection system. For this system, a ranking of the software dependability attributes by nuclear stakeholders was developed. As expected for this application, the stakeholder ranking identified safety as the most critical attribute to be quantified. A safety quantification model limited to the requirements phase of development was built. Two case studies were conducted for verification. A preliminary control gate for software safety for the requirements stage was proposed and applied to the first case study. The control gate allows a cost effective selection of the duration of the requirements phase.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Develop and Connect TRISO Failure Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Fission Product Release Calculation Capability

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Stress-based failure probability has been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles. While simple, stress-based approaches to failure probability leveraging the Weibull statistical distribution entails a number of drawbacks when stress concentration occurs near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency. In this report, we use an interaction integral approach to the computation of stress intensity factors in functionally graded materials (FGM) for axisymmetric models. The inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) cracking induced silicon carbide (SiC) failure is one of the dominated failure modes in TRISO failure analysis. In this study, we consider a crack in the IPyC layer perpendicular to the SiC layer. The interface between these two TRISO layers is considered to be porous, which we simulate considering a transition of mechanical properties over the porous length. These aspects are considered in the computation of stress intensity factor (SIF) from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known stress-based failure probability approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

MatLib-1.2: Nuclear Material Properties Library

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) uses the computer code Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST) to model steady-state and transient fuel behavior to support regulatory decisions. FAST relies on a material properties library (MatLib) that contains the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear materials and coolants of interest to support the US commercial nuclear industry. MatLib contains properties for a variety of nuclear fuels, cladding and other structural materials, gases, and coolants. In this document, material property correlations for the materials contained within MatLib are presented and discussed. When available, comparisons are made between the material property correlations and available data. Additionally, uncertainties are quantified on the material proper- ties, which is then used by the NRC to support uncertainty quantification for best-estimate plus uncertainty safety evaluation reviews. This document describes MatLib-1.2, which was updated from MatLib-1.1 to include cleanup of the code for streamlined calls to MatLib from the main FAST source code, and to enable easier readability of the code by developers that maintain and enhance the FAST code. The results of MatLib did not change between MatLib-1.1 and MatLib-1.2; however, the source code changes warranted incrementing the minor numbering of the software version number. The changes may result in faster execution times of FAST-1.2 as compared to FAST-1.1. This document is one of a series of documents on FAST; the other documents detail the models used by FAST as well as its integral assessment to experiments and commercial data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the impact of temporal analysis of products reactor initial state uncertainties on kinetic parameters

The temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor, a transient kinetic tool, provides users with information as the catalyst state evolves. However, the state of the art for TAP uncertainty quantification only considers the experimental noise present in the outlet flow signal. Additional sources of uncertainty, including, but not limited to, initial surface coverages, the catalyst zone location, the inert void fraction, and the gas pulse intensity and pulse delay, are not included. For this reason, a framework for quantifying all uncertainty sources present in TAP experiments is presented and applied to a carbon monoxide oxidation case study. Herein, two methods for quantifying these sources of uncertainty are introduced. The first utilizes initial state sensitivities to approximate the parameter variances, as well as to provide insights into the structural certainty of the model. The second generates parameter confidence distributions through an ensemble-based sampling algorithm. This initial state covariance matrix can ultimately be merged with the experimental noise covariance matrix, providing a unified description of the parameter uncertainties for a single TAP experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantified Gamow shell model interaction for p s d -shell nuclei

Background: The structure of weakly bound and unbound nuclei close to particle drip lines is one of the major science drivers of nuclear physics. A comprehensive understanding of these systems goes beyond the traditional configuration interaction approach formulated in the Hilbert space of localized states (nuclear shell model) and requires an open quantum system description. The complex-energy Gamow shell model (GSM) provides such a framework as it is capable of describing resonant and nonresonant many-body states on equal footing. Purpose: To make reliable predictions, quality input is needed that allows for the full uncertainty quantification of theoretical results. In this study, we carry out the optimization of an effective GSM (one-body and two-body) interaction in the psdf-shell-model space. The resulting interaction is expected to describe nuclei with 5 ≤ A ≲ 12 at the p-sd-shell interface. Method: The one-body potential of the 4 He core is modeled by a Woods-Saxon + spin-orbit + Coulomb potential, and the finite-range nucleon-nucleon interaction between the valence nucleons consists of central, spin-orbit, tensor, and Coulomb terms. The GSM is used to compute key fit observables. The χ 2 optimization is performed using the Gauss-Newton algorithm augmented by the singular value decomposition technique. The resulting covariance matrix enables quantification of statistical errors within the linear regression approach. Results: The optimized one-body potential reproduces nucleon- 4 He scattering phase shifts up to an excitation energy of 20 MeV. The two-body interaction built on top of the optimized one-body field is adjusted to the bound and unbound ground-state binding energies and selected excited states of the helium, lithium, and beryllium isotopes up to A = 9 . A very good agreement with experimental results was obtained for binding energies. First applications of the optimized interaction include predictions for two-nucleon correlation densities and excitation spectra of light nuclei with quantified uncertainties. In conclusion: The new interaction will enable comprehensive and fully quantified studies of structure and reactions aspects of nuclei from the psd region of the nuclear chart.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗