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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

exoALMA. V. Gaseous Emission Surfaces and Temperature Structures

An analysis of the gaseous component in protoplanetary disks can inform us about their thermal and physical structure, chemical composition, and kinematic properties, all of which are crucial for understanding various processes within the disks. By exploiting the asymmetry of the line emission, or via line profile analysis, we can locate the emitting surfaces. Here, we present the emission surfaces of the exoALMA sources in 12 CO J = 3–2, 13 CO J = 3–2, and CS J = 7–6. We find that 12 CO traces the upper disk atmosphere, with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.28, while 13 CO and CS trace lower regions of the disk with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.16 and ≈0.18, respectively. We find that 12 CO $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ and the disk mass are positively correlated with each other; this relationship offers a straightforward way to infer the disk mass. We derive 2D r – z temperature distributions of the disks. Additionally, we search for substructure in the surfaces and radial intensity profiles; we find evidence of localized substructure in the emission surfaces and peak intensity profiles of nearly every disk, with this substructure often being coincident between molecular tracers, intensity profiles, and kinematic perturbations. Four disks display evidence of potential photodesorption, implying that this effect may be common even in low far-ultraviolet star-forming regions. For most disks, we find that the physical and thermal structure is more complex than analytical models can account for, highlighting a need for more theoretical work and a better understanding of the role of projection effects on our observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A hierarchy of global ocean models coupled to CESM1

We develop a hierarchy of simplified ocean models for coupled ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The hierarchy has four members: a slab ocean model, a mixed-layer model (MLM) with entrainment and detrainment, an Ekman MLM, and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Flux corrections of heat and salt are applied to the simplified models ensuring that all hierarchy members have the same climatology. We diagnose the needed flux corrections from auxiliary simulations in which we restore the temperature and salinity to the daily climatology obtained from a target CESM1 simulation. The resulting three-dimensional corrections contain the interannual variability fluxes that maintain the correct vertical gradients of temperature and salinity in the tropics. We find that the inclusion of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow produces sea surface temperature and surface air temperature fields whose means and variances are progressively more similar to those produced by the target CESM1 simulation. We illustrate the application of the hierarchy to the problem of understanding the response of the climate system to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We find that the shifts in the positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to sea-ice loss depend critically on upper ocean processes. Specifically, heat uptake associated with the mixed-layer entrainment influences the shift in the westerly jet and ITCZ. Moreover, the shift of ITCZ is sensitive to the form of Ekman flow parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface Finishing and Coating Parameters Impact on Additively Manufactured Binder-Jetted Steel–Bronze Composites

In this paper, electroless nickel plating is explored for the protection of binder-jetting-based additively manufactured (AM) composite materials. Electroless nickel plating was attempted on binder-jetted composites composed of stainless steel and bronze, resulting in differences in the physicochemical properties. We investigated the impact of surface finishing, plating solution chemistry, and plating parameters to attain a wide range of surface morphologies and roughness levels. We employed the Keyence microscope to quantitatively evaluate dramatically different surface properties before and after the coating of AM composites. Scanning electron microscopy revealed a wide range of microstructural properties in relation to each combination of surface finishing and coating parameters. We studied chempolishing, plasma cleaning, and organic cleaning as the surface preparation methods prior to coating. We found that surface preparation dictated the surface roughness. Taguchi statistical analysis was performed to investigate the relative strength of experimental factors and interconnectedness among process parameters to attain optimum coating qualities. The quantitative impacts of phosphorous level, temperature, surface preparation, and time factor on the roughness of the nickel-plated surface were 17.95%, 8.2%, 50.02%, and 13.21%, respectively. On the other hand, the quantitative impacts of phosphorous level, temperature, surface preparation, and time factor on the thickness of nickel plating were 35.12%, 41.40%, 3.87%, and 18.24%, respectively. The optimum combination of the factors’ level projected the lowest roughness of Ra at 7.76 µm. The optimum combination of the factors’ level projected the maximum achievable thickness of ~149 µm. This paper provides insights into coating process for overcoming the sensitivity of AM composites in hazardous application spaces via robust coating.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Drift Effects in UEDGE Simulations of NSTX-U Edge Plasma With Lithium Divertors

Lithium is a low-Z material, and lithium-based plasma-facing components (PFCs) are planned for the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) to explore potential benefits for divertor power exhaust and core plasma management. NSTX-U is a medium-sized spherical tokamak with up to 12 MW of auxiliary heating, capable of generating reactor-relevant plasma conditions. This work presents boundary plasma simulations for NSTX-U with lithium PFCs using the UEDGE code, incorporating full magnetic and 𝐄 ×𝐁 drift physics. The simulations show that drifts strongly influence heat and particle transport: they enhance convective transport, broaden the scrape-off layer heat-flux width 𝜆 𝑞 , and reduce the anomalous heat diffusivity 𝜒 required to reproduce predicted SOL heat-flux width. 𝐄 ×𝐁 drifts provide poloidal transport, while ∇𝐵 (which includes both gradB and curvature) drifts provide radial heat and particle transport. Lithium transport is also affected by drifts, with lithium ions migrating from the outer divertor to the inner divertor through the private flux region (PFR) following the 𝐄 ×𝐁 drifts flow, lowering upstream impurity lithium densities. UEDGE is self-consistently coupled with the Wall-Li model to study plasma lithium PFC interactions depending on the local lithium sourcing based on local plasma conditions and lithium surface temperature. In these simulations, lithium evaporation shows a vapor-shielding effect that reduces divertor heat flux and increases radiative losses once surface temperatures exceed 450°C. This research work provides a first step toward self-consistent modeling of lithium PFCs in NSTX-U, demonstrating the impact of drift-driven plasma transport in SOL and divertor regions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong Local Evaporative Cooling Over Land Due to Atmospheric Aerosols

Abstract Aerosols can enhance terrestrial productivity through increased absorption of solar radiation by the shaded portion of the plant canopy—the diffuse radiation fertilization effect. Although this process can, in principle, alter surface evaporation due to the coupling between plant water loss and carbon uptake, with the potential to change the surface temperature, aerosol‐climate interactions have been traditionally viewed in light of the radiative effects within the atmosphere. Here, we develop a modeling framework that combines global atmosphere and land model simulations with a conceptual diagnostic tool to investigate these interactions from a surface energy budget perspective. Aerosols increase the terrestrial evaporative fraction, or the portion of net incoming energy consumed by evaporation, by over 4% globally and as much as ∼40% regionally. The main mechanism for this is the increase in energy allocation from sensible to latent heat due to global dimming (reduction in global shortwave radiation) and slightly augmented by diffuse radiation fertilization. In regions with moderately dense vegetation (leaf area index >2), the local surface cooling response to aerosols is dominated by this evaporative pathway, not the reduction in incident radiation. Diffuse radiation fertilization alone has a stronger impact on gross primary productivity (+2.18 Pg C y −1 or +1.8%) than on land evaporation (+0.18 W m −2 or +0.48%) and surface temperature (−0.01 K). Our results suggest that it is important for land surface models to distinguish between quantity (change in total magnitude) and quality (change in diffuse fraction) of radiative forcing for properly simulating surface climate.

Chakraborty, TC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance of Pulsed Thermal Tomography Imaging with Machine Learning-Based Classification of Defects in Additively Manufactured Structures

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex topology nuclear reactor parts from high-strength corrosion resistance alloys, such as stainless steel and Inconel. AM of metallic structures for nuclear energy applications is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Some of the challenges with using LPBF method for nuclear manufacturing include the possibility of introducing pores into metallic structures. Integrity of AM structures needs to be evaluated nondestructively because material flaws could lead to premature failures in high temperature nuclear reactor environment. Currently, there exist limited capabilities to evaluate actual AM structures non-destructively. Pulsed Thermal Tomography Imaging (PTT) provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of subsurface defects in arbitrary size structures. The PTT method is based on recording material surface temperature transients with infrared (IR) camera following thermal pulse delivered on material surface with flash light. The PTT method has advantages for NDE of actual AM structures because the method involves one-sided non-contact measurements and fast processing of large sample areas captured in one image. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a PTT system can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. In this report, we describe recent progress in enhancing PTT capabilities in detecting and visualizing microscopic defects in metallic specimens. The thermal tomography (TT) algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of spatial effusivity from the data cube of sequentially recorded surface temperatures. However, interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring of images with increasing depth. To address this challenge, we have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation subsurface defects in simulated TT images. CNN is trained on a database of TT images created for a set of simulated metallic structures with elliptical subsurface voids. Test of CNN performance demonstrate the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of subsurface defects in TT images. In addition, we have shown that CNN trained on elliptical defects is capable of classifying irregular-shaped defects obtained from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of stainless steel sections printed with LPBF.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model

A primary advantage to using reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) has been their ability to quickly conduct probabilistic climate projections, a key component of uncertainty quantification in many impact studies and multisector systems. Providing frameworks for such analyses has been a target of several RCMs used in studies of the future co-evolution of the human and Earth systems. In this paper, we present Matilda, an open-science R software package that facilitates probabilistic climate projection analysis, implemented here using the Hector simple climate model in a seamless and easily applied framework. The primary goal of Matilda is to provide the user with a turn-key method to build parameter sets from literature-based prior distributions, run Hector iteratively to produce perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), weight ensembles for realism against observed historical climate data, and compute probabilistic projections for different climate variables. This workflow gives the user the ability to explore viable parameter space and propagate uncertainty to model ensembles with just a few lines of code. The package provides significant freedom to select different scoring criteria and algorithms to weight ensemble members, as well as the flexibility to implement custom criteria. Additionally, the architecture of the package simplifies the process of building and analyzing PPEs without requiring significant programming expertise, to accommodate diverse use cases. We present a case study that provides illustrative results of a probabilistic analysis of mean global surface temperature as an example of the software application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ding_MICRE_V1.0_Environmental_Parameters

The files contain the a variety of quantities useful in the analysis of MICRE datasets. Specifically, 1) Local meteorological conditions including: sea surface temperature (SST), lower tropospheric stability (LTS), marine cold air outbreak (MCAO) index, inversion height, and lifting condensation level (LCL). 2) Location relative to the oceanic polar front (PF), center of the closest cyclone, and nearest warm fronts and cold fronts 3) Location of air parcels 72 hours prior to its arrival at/above the MICRE site computed using the HYSPLIT back trajectory model

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing and high-sensitivity sensor spatial surveying of stream temperature

Measuring surface water temperature spatial variability is needed to estimate the interaction between surface water and groundwater, evaluate fish habitat and thermal inertia, and to estimate streamflow frequency and duration. Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) has been used in rivers and lakes, providing high-resolution and sensitive temperature monitoring over large temporal and spatial scales. However, in streams with cobbly or bedrock-lined streambeds and variable bathymetry, use of FO-DTS to measure temperature close to the surface water and groundwater interface can be challenging if even feasible. FO-DTS can also be costly, involve difficult installations, and require an advanced understanding of the technology, calibration, and data processing. In this study, we compared FO-DTS stream temperature survey results to an alternative temperature survey method employing a towed transect of high-resolution temperature loggers spaced at 1-m and transported in the stream along the study reach, to measure the spatial distribution of stream-water temperature in East Fork Poplar Creek near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. We assessed the applicability and limitations of the two methods, and quantitatively compared in-situ temperature survey results measured simultaneously with each method. Regression results showed strong temporal and spatial correlation between the two methods. Differences were only elevated near the stream banks in areas that were coincident with correlation slope deviations from unity, which was attributed to shallower water and lower data density. Kriging standard errors were also low at channel center with minor increases near the stream banks. Furthermore, the results suggested that the array of the individual temperature sensors can provide a practical alternative to FO-DTS for thermal characterization of surface water, providing slightly lower spatial and temporal resolution, but with higher accuracy of temperature measurement, with greater simplicity, and with a broader range of conditions where it may be applied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stanford Thermal Earth Model for the Conterminous United States

Provided here are various forms of the Stanford Thermal Earth Model, as well as the data and methods used for its creation. The predictions produced by this model were visualized in two-dimensional spatial maps across the modeled depths (0-7 km) for the conterminous United States. The thermal earth model is made available as an application programming interface (API) and as feature layers on ArcGIS, which are both provided via links below. A data-driven spatial interpolation algorithm based on physics-informed graph neural networks was used to develop these national temperature-at-depth maps. The model satisfied the three-dimensional heat conduction law by predicting subsurface temperature, surface heat flow, and rock thermal conductivity. Many physical quantities, including bottomhole temperature, depth, geographic coordinates, elevation, sediment thickness, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly, gamma-ray flux of radioactive elements, seismicity, and electric conductivity were used as model inputs. Surface heat flow, temperature, and thermal conductivity predictions were constructed for depths of 0-7 km at an interval of 1 km with spatial resolution of 18 km2 per grid cell. The model showed superior temperature, surface heat flow and thermal conductivity mean absolute errors of 4.8C, 8.1 mW/m2 and 0.07 W/(C-m), respectively..

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Decadal Hybrid GCM Simulation Using Deep‐Learning‐Based Cloud and Convection Parameterization Generalized to a Warm Climate

A critical challenge for machine‐learning (ML) parameterization in global climate models (GCMs) is to achieve stable, accurate simulations under climates not seen during training. Previous studies have demonstrated promising offline performance and year‐long online stability in aquaplanet simulations but have encountered difficulties in real geography and under climate warming. Here we report that a GCM with real geography configuration using neural‐network‐based cloud and convection parameterization, trained exclusively with present‐day climate data, successfully performs a stable, decade‐long simulation of a warm climate with +4 K sea surface temperature (SST). The neural network (NN) is based on Han et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003508 ) with additional inputs. The simulation captures the global precipitation distribution, surface temperatures, vertical atmospheric structures, and extreme precipitation very well, closely matching simulations from both the superparameterized CAM (SPCAM) and the conventional CAM5 in the warm climate without accuracy degradation compared to those in the baseline climate. Moreover, it produces a climate response to +4 K SST in atmospheric thermodynamic states and circulations similar to those from SPCAM and CAM5. Prognostic ablation tests on NN input variables show that the NN without convective memory as input suffers from numerical instability, and the NN without considering radiative variables and land fraction as input, or with reduced training samples produce less accurate results. To our knowledge, this is the first time an ML parameterization successfully achieves online extrapolation to a warm climate without using additional warm‐climate data for training. It demonstrates the potential of ML‐driven parameterizations for credible long‐term climate projections.

Atmosphere model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS) Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems: An Empirical Model

Measurements of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) enable independent estimates of regional stomatal conductance provided that non-stomatal OCS fluxes are well constrained. OCS is taken up through plant leaves, following the same pathway as CO 2 ; in contrast to CO 2 , OCS is irreversibly destroyed in plant leaves and plants do not typically exhibit OCS emissions. Ecosystem uptake of OCS can indicate changes in stomatal opening. Here we present an empirical model to assess the potential impact of soil OCS exchange, the non-Stomatal OCS exchange Empirical Model (SOCSEM, version 0). We created biome-specific response curves characterizing soil OCS exchange and restricted the model design to require only knowledge of soil moisture and surface temperature because remote sensing observations are available for these two features. Comparing the model to field-based chamber observations reveal deviations that can be attributed to missing complexity of the ground surface (having excluded litter and plants without regulated stomata), shortwave radiation, or the soil environment. For agricultural regions with known net emissions, we use remotely-sensed surface temperature data and demonstrate that data resolution can affect anticipated fluxes. We further investigate the influence of regions with unknown soil OCS responses, for example, Arctic tundra. We compare our model to a process-based and respiration-based soil OCS exchange model that has been implemented in a land surface model. Further field study of tropical and arctic ecosystems in conjunction with studies of non-stomatal surfaces in addition to soil (e.g., bryophytes) will increase confidence in applying OCS as a regional tracer for stomatal conductance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental characterization of extreme temperature granular flows for solar thermal energy transport and storage

High-temperature, dense granular flows along an inclined plane were considered for solar thermal energy transport and storage with sintered bauxite particles. A series of experiments was performed for particle inlet temperatures of ~ 200, 400, 600, and 800 °C to understand the mechanisms of granular flows at extreme temperatures. Mass flow rates were measured using a load cell and free-surface velocities were measured and computed using particle image velocimetry. Surface temperatures were measured using infrared cameras. A significant decrease in steady-state particle mass flow rate was observed with increasing temperature due to changing flow properties. A decrease in bulk particle free-surface velocities was observed at higher temperatures. Free-surface velocity measurement error between experiments were within 20% of the average. The particle surface temperatures decreased from inlet to outlet with larger gradients at higher temperatures observed due to increasing convection and radiative heat losses. Here, a decrease in temperature was observed along the side walls due to a decrease in particle velocities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century

Ocean memory, the persistence of ocean conditions, is a major source of predictability in the climate system beyond weather time scales. We show that ocean memory, as measured by the year-to-year persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies, is projected to steadily decline in the coming decades over much of the globe. This global decline in ocean memory is predominantly driven by shoaling of the upper-ocean mixed layer depth in response to global surface warming, while thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks can contribute substantially regionally. As the mixed layer depth shoals, stochastic forcing becomes more effective in driving sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing high-frequency noise at the expense of persistent signals. Reduced ocean memory results in shorter lead times of skillful persistence-based predictions of sea surface thermal conditions, which may present previously unknown challenges for predicting climate extremes and managing marine biological resources under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Controls on Water Vapor Deuterium Excess in the Coastal Boundary Layer: An Information Theory Perspective

We use information theory to quantify the environmental controls on water vapor deuterium excess (D-excess) in coastal Southern California from June 2023 through February 2024. Using Shannon entropy, mutual information (MI), and joint mutual information, metrics that capture both linear and nonlinear relationships, we identify the most informative variables and variable combinations governing D-excess across contrasting marine and continental regimes. Relative humidity with respect to sea surface temperature (RHS) is consistently the strongest individual predictor, explaining up to 27% of D-excess variability during marine conditions but only 10% in continental air masses. The Relative humidity(RHS) + sea surface temperature (SST) combination demonstrates synergistic effects, where their joint influence (explaining up to 36% of D-excess variability) exceeds what either variable achieves individually, confirming their coupled influence on deuterium excess. Wind direction complements RHS most effectively during continental conditions. The best three-variable combination (RHS + SST + Planetary Boundary Layer height) explains 38% of D-excess variability in marine air, while no combination exceeds 20% explanatory power during continental periods. Information theory shows that heteroscedasticity in D-excess relationships indicates regime shifts in controlling processes and quantifies fundamental constraints on predictor variables: some environmental factors like surface pressure or water vapor flux contain insufficient information content to explain D-excess variability regardless of their physical relevance. These results highlight the different predictability limits between marine and continental regimes, challenging the adequacy of linear models and providing a rigorous framework for quantifying the information content of isotope-climate relationships with implications for both modern and paleoclimate applications.

information theory↗