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Results for “surrogate model development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Robust Calibration of the AWSD Reactive Burn Model

Calibration of a reactive burn model for detonation of high explosive is an important step towards predictive hy drodynamic simulations of detonation. A typical calibration consists of varying model parameters (e.g., rate constants, activation energies) until results of hydrodynamic simulations match the experimental data for a certain set of ex periments. Hydrodynamic simulations of the dependence of steady detonation velocity on the radius of a cylindrical high-explosive charge - often used in such calibrations - can be computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a method where such expensive simulations are performed infrequently, and only to parameterize and refine a surrogate model for the dependence of the detonation velocity on calibrated parameters. The method is developed, implemented and applied to an example problem - calibration of the AWSD reactive burn model for important high explosive PBX 9502. Two different flavors of the surrogate model are investigated, and the calibration is performed successfully.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning using hybrid surrogate tool life modeling for machining process optimization

Here, this paper describes an active learning approach for part-to-part iterative machining process optimization using a hybrid surrogate tool life model. A probabilistic interpolating tool life model is developed by combining the empirical Taylor-type tool life equation and the model fit error. The probabilistic tool life model is then used to calculate the machining cost per part distribution. The optimal machining parameters are selected using an expected improvement in machining cost per part criterion. The method is validated numerically using experimental results; the results show a median convergence error of 2.2% after three tests over 400 simulations. The method is validated experimentally on two industrial applications for Ti-6Al-4V roughing resulting in a cost per part reduction greater than 23% after two tests. The described method is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimal machining parameters in an industrial production environment.

Active learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of various DIII-D diagnostics on the accuracy of neural network surrogates for kinetic EFIT reconstructions

Abstract Kinetic equilibrium reconstructions make use of profile information such as particle density and temperature measurements in addition to magnetics data to compute a self-consistent equilibrium. They are used in a multitude of physics-based modeling. This work develops a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network (NN) model as a surrogate for kinetic Equilibrium Fitting (EFITs) and trains on the 2019 DIII-D discharge campaign database of kinetic equilibrium reconstructions. We investigate the impact of including various diagnostic data and machine actuator controls as input into the NN. When giving various categories of data as input into NN models that have been trained using those same categories of data, the predictions on multiple equilibrium reconstruction solutions (poloidal magnetic flux, global scalars, pressure profile, current profile) are highly accurate. When comparing different models with different diagnostics as input, the magnetics-only model outputs accurate kinetic profiles and the inclusion of additional data does not significantly impact the accuracy. When the NN is tasked with inferring only a single target such as the EFIT pressure profile or EFIT current profile, we see a large increase in the accuracy of the prediction of the kinetic profiles as more data is included. These results indicate that certain MLP NN configurations can be reasonably robust to different burning-plasma-relevant diagnostics depending on the accuracy requirements for equilibrium reconstruction tasks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning FRNN Software for Prediction & Real-Time Control of DIII-D Plasma Control System (PCS)

This collaborative project integrated an improved version of the Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning FRNN prediction and control software into the real-time DIII-D PCS (plasma control system). A key AI/DL software challenge is to build a modern high-performance computing (HPC) enabled “synthetic plasma simulator” capable of carrying out HPC-driven real-time plasma control applications. This involves development of a deep learning framework to train the surrogate model for a first-principles-based instability analysis simulator (“SGTC”) derived from the global gyrokinetic code GTC. The role of SGTC is to provide accurate and detailed plasma instability information from a real-time AI-based simulator capability to complement the deep learning prediction and control from experimentally-measured signals, such as ECE Imaging, supplemented by synthetic SGTC-ECEI.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

White Paper: Research & Development for the Time at Temperature Approach

Recent advancements in nuclear power research are greatly improving reactor safety and performance through the development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) and Low-Enriched Uranium Plus (LEU+). These innovations can address Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) margins, which are vital for reactor safety. DNB happens when the coolant switches to film boiling, significantly decreasing heat transfer and posing a risk of fuel cladding failure. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) employs conservative DNB criteria, which can potentially restrict the operational flexibility and efficiency of reactors. The Time at Temperature (TaT) approach could provide a more detailed and adaptable operational guideline by establishing acceptable time-temperature limits, accounting for the duration a material can withstand elevated temperatures without losing its integrity. This method allows reactors to operate more efficiently and safely, offering additional operational margins, faster power adjustments, and improved fuel cycle economics. TaT criteria allow for higher power levels and more flexible responses to operational transients, particularly applicable for anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) that result in short durations of post-DNB conditions. It enhances plant operational flexibility, allows faster startup times, and enables quicker power level adjustments, optimizing fuel loading patterns and improving fuel cycle economics. Implementing TaT limits reduces core design constraints, lowers fuel usage, and reduces costs, essential for the long-term sustainability of Light Water Reactors (LWRs). TaT maximizes the use of advanced fuel technologies like ATF and LEU+, further enhancing their economic and environmental benefits. To apply the TaT approach in existing LWRs, collaborative research activities among various DOE-sponsored programs are essential. These efforts should incorporate fuel experiments, physics-based high-fidelity modeling, ML-based surrogate modeling, and optimization techniques. This whitepaper proposes four research and development areas: 1) Investigation of the feasibility of new operations of LWR with updated safety limits; 2) Assessment of reactor operation limits through uncertainty reduction; 3) Evaluation of power uprate in virtual environment; and 4) Lattice and reactor core design for power uprate. Each area includes why this research is in need and a suggested scope of work. These comprehensive research areas ensure practical and beneficial advancements for existing reactors, translating innovations in nuclear fuel and cladding technology into improved reactor performance and safety.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning surrogate for charged particle beam dynamics with space charge based on a recurrent neural network with aleatoric uncertainty

In this work, we develop a machine learning (ML) model with aleatoric uncertainty for the low energy beam transport (LEBT) region of the LANSCE linear accelerator in which we model the transport of a space-charge-dominated 750 keV proton beam through a lattice of 22 quadrupole magnets. Our ML model is developed based on data generated by a Kapchinsky–Vladimirsky (KV) envelope model of beam transport. We show that a recurrent neural network can be used as a dynamical surrogate model for fast prediction of the LEBT beam envelope. Furthermore, we endow the model with the prediction of aleatoric uncertainty and compare three different approaches. We demonstrate that the ML-based uncertainty quantification models are well calibrated and produce good estimates of the regions where the model is less certain about its predictions. This ML framework is a necessary step in the development of a real-time virtual diagnostic tool with uncertainty quantification that can be integrated into more complex downstream tasks (e.g., adaptive control or learning flexible control policies via reinforcement learning) for improved efficiency in beam operations. In future work, we plan to expand on this preliminary study by considering more realistic envelope models that include longitudinal momentum spread and dispersive effects in bending magnets, as well as particle tracking codes with 3D space charge (such as and ). Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics insights from a large-scale 2D UEDGE simulation database for detachment control in KSTAR

A large-scale database of two-dimensional UEDGE simulations has been developed to study detachment physics in KSTAR and to support surrogate models for control applications. Nearly 70 000 steady-state solutions were generated, systematically scanning upstream density, input power, plasma current, impurity fraction, and anomalous transport coefficients, with magnetic and electric drifts across the magnetic field included. The database identifies robust detachment indicators, with strike-point electron temperature at detachment onset consistently T e,target ~ 3-4 eV, largely insensitive to upstream conditions. Scaling relations reveal weaker impurity sensitivity than one-dimensional models and show that heat flux widths follow Eich’s scaling only for uniform, low D and χ. Distinctive in–out divertor asymmetries are observed in KSTAR, differing qualitatively from DIII-D. Complementary time-dependent simulations quantify plasma response to gas puffing, with delays of 5 - 15 ms at the outer strike point and ∼ 40 ms for the low-magnetic-field-side radiation front. These dynamics are well captured by first-order-plus-dead-time models and are consistent with experimentally observed detachment-control behavior in KSTAR (Gupta et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion (submitted)).

Physics - Plasma physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating discoveries at DIII-D with the Integrated Research Infrastructure

DIII-D research is being accelerated by leveraging high performance computing (HPC) and data resources available through the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) Superfacility initiative. As part of this initiative, a high-resolution, fully automated, whole discharge kinetic equilibrium reconstruction workflow was developed that runs at the NERSC for most DIII-D shots in under 20 min. This has eliminated a long-standing research barrier and opened the door to more sophisticated analyses, including plasma transport and stability. These capabilities would benefit from being automated and executed within the larger Department of Energy Advanced Scientific Computing Research program’s Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) framework. The goal of IRI is to empower researchers to meld DOE’s world-class research tools, infrastructure, and user facilities seamlessly and securely in novel ways to radically accelerate discovery and innovation. For transport, we are looking at producing flux matched profiles and also using particle tracing to predict fast ion heat deposition from neutral beam injection before a shot takes place. Our starting point for evaluating plasma stability focuses on the pedestal limits that must be navigated to achieve better confinement. This information is meant to help operators run more effective experiments, so it needs to be available rapidly inside the DIII-D control room. So far this has been achieved by ensuring the data is available with existing tools, but as more novel results are produced new visualization tools must be developed. In addition, all of the high-quality data we have generated has been collected into databases that can unlock even deeper insights. This has already been leveraged for model and code validation studies as well as for developing AI/ML surrogates. The workflows developed for this project are intended to serve as prototypes that can be replicated on other experiments and can be run to provide timely and essential information for ITER, as well as next stage fusion power plants.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Part-scale microstructure prediction for laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using a hybrid mechanistic and machine learning model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Ti-6Al-4V is widely studied for use in structural applications in aerospace and medical industries, but mechanical anisotropy and microstructural inhomogeneity prohibits its wider adoption. Although successful microstructure prediction models have been developed, a remaining challenge is their limited integration across length/time scales and validation by experimental studies. Here, this work proposes a physics-augmented machine learning surrogate model to unite predictions of LPBF temperature, β phase morphology and texture, and α/α’ formation into a single framework that is calibrated and validated with experiments. First, a phase field (PF) model of the martensitic β→α’ transformation is developed and calibrated using data from in-situ synchrotron cyclic heating/cooling studies quantifying the variation of α phase fraction with time. In parallel, an established finite difference-Monte Carlo (FDMC) model predicts the part-scale temperature profile and β grain formation during solidification. A dataset is developed using LPBF cyclic temperature descriptors from the FDMC model as inputs and corresponding α/α’ phase fraction and width from the PF model as outputs. Five machine learning (ML) regression models are tested and optimized, having mean absolute error in testing ≤ 4 %, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model is selected as the best performing. The KNN model is called at the nodal level during post-processing of the FDMC model to replace and downscale the response of the PF model. The combined agility and accuracy of the hybrid FDMC-ML model enables part-scale microstructure predictions that can be further used for property predictions to accelerate AM process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reservoir Computing as a Tool for Climate Predictability Studies

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate models. In this context, the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that reservoir computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preindustrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community Earth System Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC-based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data are plentiful and when such data are more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions—larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc.—suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator—the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory—is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Radiolysis on Iodine Speciation in a Variety of Matrices

This report details the work conducted in fiscal year 2023 with the aim of providing a better understanding of the speciation of iodine in support of domestic 99 Mo production Shine who uses a sulfate matrix in their process. Laboratory experiments to study the behavior of iodine speciation were conducted using spectroscopic methods including UV-vis and Raman as well as electrochemical studies. Radiolysis occurring in solution presents a unique challenge that is largely unaddressed with thermodynamic modeling, therefore a kinetic model was developed to address these issues. The focus of the studies conducted this year used surrogate radiolytic conditions induced by hydrogen peroxide for comparison to radiolytic conditions from direct gamma irradiation and neat acid solutions. For each case a model incorporating the kinetics was used to predict iodine speciation in the defined conditions where the output was directly compared to the experimental conditions. Further modeling was conducted incorporating the process conditions that are specific to Shine with incorporation of radiolysis and gas sparging.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity Accelerated Design of High-performance Electrochemical Systems

Large-scale electrification is vital to addressing the climate crisis, but several scientific and technological challenges remain to fully electrify both the chemical industry and transportation. In both of these areas, new electrochemical materials will be critical, but their development currently relies heavily on human-time-intensive experimental trial and error and computationally expensive first-principles, meso-scale and continuum simulations. To accelerate this process, our team has developed the AutoMat platform. AutoMat can accelerate development of new electrochemical materials along two avenues: first, automated input generation and management of simulations at multiple lengthscales as well as “handoff” of outputs from one lengthscale as inputs to the next; and second, replacement of the most computationally intensive simulation processes with machine-learned surrogate models. The crux of our team’s effort was not “reinventing the wheel” by developing entirely new techniques, but rather building a “superhighway” that allows existing state-of-the-art techniques to run faster and more smoothly than before. AutoMat can utilize tools spanning from first-principles quantum chemistry computations to automated robotic experimentation, and is driven by design space search techniques to reduce the number of iterations through the full simulation loop by rapidly targeting promising regions of design spaces such as single-atom alloy catalysts or blends of liquid electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filtering Using Surrogate Models Defined by Theory-Guided Autoencoders

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities. This work extends the MFEnKF into to make use of a broader class of surrogate model such as those based on machine learning methods such as autoencoders non-linear couplings in between the model hierarchies. We identify the right-invertibility property for autoencoders as being a key predictor of success in the forecasting power of autoencoder-based reduced order models. We propose a methodology that allows us to construct reduced order surrogate models that are more accurate than the ones obtained via conventional linear methods. Numerical experiments with the canonical Lorenz'96 model illustrate that nonlinear surrogates perform better than linear projection-based ones in the context of multifidelity ensemble Kalman filtering. We additionality show a large-scale proof-of-concept result with the quasi-geostrophic equations, showing the competitiveness of the method with a traditional reduced order model-based MFEnKF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗