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At least 235 records · Page 13

The satellite altimeter as a platform for observation of the oceanic mesoscale

The use of the satellite radar altimeter as a platform to provide synoptic monitoring of the oceanic mesoscale is faced with two critical issues: removal of geoid error or contamination and election of optimum space/time sampling strategies. Long wavelength orbit determination errors are not critical problems for altimeter measurements of the basin scale circulation. Both issues are addressed within the constraints provided by orbital mechanics which dictates the laydown pattern of the satellite's groundtracks in space/time. Other issues which must be assessed are: adequate mission duration scales and the problems of geophysical noise sources and instrumental noise which degrade the effective alongtrack spatial resolution of the altimeter.

Mitchell, J. L.↗

Thermospheric Temperature and Density Variations From Observations and Models

The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD)mission in geostationary orbit provides a near synoptic (i.e. concurrent, globally unified, and spatially resolved) view of the thermosphere and ionosphere, allowing to unambiguously distinguish temporal and spatial variations. We have analyzed the thermospheric daytime temperature and column integrated O/N ratio data from GOLD, and compared these observations with the simulation results by NCAR's WACCM-X model and NRL'sMSIS2.0 model. A seasonal pattern is seen, and there are also significant differences between the observations and simulations.

Guiping Liu↗

Improvement of synoptic scale moisture and wind field analyses using the Nimbus 4 THIR 6.7 micron observations

The Nimbus 4 temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) monitors radiation in the 6.5 to 7.2 micron water vapor absorption with a 23 kilometer spatial resolution at the sub-satellite point. Radiation monitored in this spectral region results primarily from emission in the 250 to 500 millibar region of the upper troposphere. The THIR 6.7 micron observations are readily available in photofacsimile imagery form which shows very distinctive patterns associated with spatial variations in atmospheric water vapor. These radiometric observations were combined in several instances with moisture values measured in the upper troposphere by the standard radiosonde network. In each instance, the result is a much more consistent analysis showing increased spatial detail that agrees with the radiometric observations and does not compromise the conventional data. The improved moisture analyses show relatively dry and moist tongues that are very difficult or impossible to infer from the conventional data alone. The patterns in the moisture fields can be tracked over 12 and 24 hour periods. In addition, by keeping in mind the advective properties of the moisture field, success was achieved in improving streamline analyses at the 400 mb level over data sparse regions on a global scale.

Steranko, J.↗

Some climatological variables for TOGA-COARE domains - 1985-1990

Results are presented of the Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere-Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) conducted in the western Pacific, with particular attention given to the atmospheric component of the experiment. The climatological variables explored are the mean sea level pressure, precipitable water, sea surface-air temperature difference, zonal wind component at 200 mb and 10 m, vertical motion at 500 mb, and precipitation rates. The paper provides some of the large-scale flow patterns in which other circulation features reside. Results are presented for three of the TOGA-COARE domains bounded by the following: (1) the Upper Air Network, 30 deg N-30 deg S, 90 deg E-70 deg W; (2) the Large-Scale Array, 10 deg N-10 deg S, 140 deg E-180 deg; and (3) the Equatorial Synoptic Array, 5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg E-180 deg.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Storm-driven Mixing and Potential Impact on the Arctic Ocean

Observations of the ocean, atmosphere, and ice made by Ice-Ocean Environmental Buoys (IOEBs) indicate that mixing events reaching the depth of the halocline have occurred in various regions in the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that these mixing events were mechanically forced by intense storms moving across the buoy sites. In this study, we analyzed these mixing events in the context of storm developments that occurred in the Beaufort Sea and in the general area just north of Fram Strait, two areas with quite different hydrographic structures. The Beaufort Sea is strongly influenced by inflow of Pacific water through Bering Strait, while the area north of Fram Strait is directly affected by the inflow of warm and salty North Atlantic water. Our analyses of the basin-wide evolution of the surface pressure and geostrophic wind fields indicate that the characteristics of the storms could be very different. The buoy-observed mixing occurred only in the spring and winter seasons when the stratification was relatively weak. This indicates the importance of stratification, although the mixing itself was mechanically driven. We also analyze the distribution of storms, both the long-term climatology as well as the patterns for each year in the last two decades. The frequency of storms is also shown to be correlated- (but not strongly) to Arctic Oscillation indices. This study indicates that the formation of new ice that leads to brine rejection is unlikely the mechanism that results in the type of mixing that could overturn the halocline. On the other hand, synoptic-scale storms can force mixing deep enough to the halocline and thermocline layer. Despite a very stable stratification associated with the Arctic halocline, the warm subsurface thermocline water is not always insulated from the mixed layer.

Yang, Jiayan↗

Dynamics of plankton populations in upwelling areas

Recent investigations of the upwelling area along the NW Coast of Africa which include studies with satellites are discussed. The detection of patchiness in temperature and plankton distribution in the upwelling area is of special interest because they can be investigated from space synoptically with repeated coverage. The recent satellite missions provide recordings in the infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMR) as well as in the visible part. The information from those two parts of the EMR is useful for establishing the sea surface temperature and plankton distribution in upwelling areas. The temperature distribution as observed with infrared sensors and the patchiness in plankton patterns are discussed as observed with the most recent satellites, namely the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS) and NOAA-2.

Szekielda, K.↗

Study of recreational land and open space using Skylab imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. Despite almost uniform surface temperature conditions in the study area, the thermal imagery did illustrate the following possible uses: (1) Surface temperatures relative to 0 C reveal whether the snow and ice cover is wet and the melt pattern. This information is useful in hydrologic monitoring of runoff timing and rate, as well as indicating trafficability conditions on the snow. (2) When the surface temperature of snow and ice is below freezing, it may serve as an indicator of spatial variation of air temperatures. This information may be used in calculating the spatial variation of surface radiation budgets, or in observing synoptic weather condition changes or local microclimatic effects. (3) Frozen inland lakes with less than about three or four inches of snow over the ice may be differentiated from surrounding snow covered land areas; this is not always feasible in visible wavelength imagery. The feasibility of this application decreases as the ice thickness increases.

Sattinger, I. J.↗

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and landatmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Cold Spells↗

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Further, decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The growth of prognostic differences between GLAS model forecasts from SAT and NOSAT initial conditions

A study has been conducted to determine the cause of a major synoptic difference in the 72 h GLAS model forecasts from 0000 GMT 19 February 1976 that resulted from the inclusion of satellite data. The prognostic differences that resulted in diverging cyclone paths between the forecast that included satellite temperature soundings (SAT) and the forecast that excluded satellite sounding data (NOSAT) have been traced to initial state differences in the upper level wind and temperature patterns. These modifications enhanced the variation of thermal vorticity and thermal advection across the cyclone center and in the SAT case, gave a greater initial rate of movement of the upper-level vorticity maximum associated with the surface cyclone.

Atlas, R.↗

Tidal and atmospheric forcing of the upper ocean in the Gulf of California. I - Sea surface temperature variability

SST variability in the northern Gulf of California is examined on the basis of findings of two years of satellite infrared imagery (1984-1986). Empirical orthogonal functions of the temporal and spatial SST variance for 20 monthly mean images show that the dominant SST patterns are generated by spatially varying tidal mixing in the presence of seasonal heating and cooling. Atmospheric forcing of the northern gulf appears to occur over large spatial scales. Area-averaged SSTs for the Guaymas Basin, island region, and northern basin exhibit significant fluctuations which are highly correlated. These fluctuations in SST correspond to similar fluctuations in the air temperature which are related to synoptic weather events over the gulf. A regression analysis of the SST relative to the fortnightly tidal range shows that tidal mixing occurs over the sills in the island region as well as on the shallow northern shelf. Mixing over the sills occurs as a result of large breaking internal waves of internal hydraulic jumps which mix over water in the upper 300-500 m.

Paden, Cynthia A.↗

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗

Monsoon Extremes: Impacts, Metrics, and Synoptic-Scale Drivers

This project was led by UC Berkeley with a subcontract to UC Davis and collaborative funding at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). It produced new understanding of transient atmospheric disturbances in monsoon regions, the precipitation extremes they produce, and the sensitivity of precipitation and monsoon winds to fine-scale orography (i.e., the narrow mountain ranges that are difficult to represent in conventional Earth system models). Fundamental research undertaken as part of this project led to discovery of new mechanisms that control the generation of extreme weather events and that govern the spatial patterns of intense precipitation in monsoon climates—including the North American monsoon. These research accomplishments are summarized below and documented in a series of 23 publications, 20 of which were led by project personnel (the others were collaborative work led by staff of other projects). One of the publications produced by this project was in Nature, where it was selected for the main cover image, and another was in PNAS. The project also produced two datasets and a tracking algorithm, both of which are publicly available and listed below. The project trained three Ph.D. students and four postdoctoral scientists, the vast majority of whom have progressed to more advanced positions in their scientific careers. Although the university funding for this project ended in 2022, the LBNL component of the project proceeded for almost one year longer; this report is being provided after completion of all components of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variational optimization analysis of temperature and moisture advection in a severe storm environment

Horizontal wind components, potential temperature, and mixing ratio fields associated with a severe storm environment in the south central U.S. were analyzed from synoptic upper air observations with a nonhomogeneous, anisotropic weighting function. Each data field was filtered with variational optimization analysis techniques. Variational optimization analysis was also performed on the vertical motion field and was used to produce advective forecasts of the potential temperature and mixing ratio fields. Results show that the dry intrusion is characterized by warm air, the advection of which produces a well-defined upward motion pattern. A corresponding downward motion pattern comprising a deep vertical circulation in the warm air sector of the low pressure system was detected. The axes alignment of maximum dry and warm advection with the axis of the tornado-producing squall line also resulted.

Mcfarland, M. J.↗

Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter

Several meteorological datasets, including U.K. Met Office (MetO), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and NASA's Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-4) analyses, are being used in studies of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric winter and Antarctic major warming. Diagnostics are compared to assess how these studies may be affected by the meteorological data used. While the overall structure and evolution of temperatures, winds, and wave diagnostics in the different analyses provide a consistent picture of the large-scale dynamics of the SH 2002 winter, several significant differences may affect detailed studies. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (REAN) and NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2 (REAN-2) datasets are not recommended for detailed studies, especially those related to polar processing, because of lower-stratospheric temperature biases that result in underestimates of polar processing potential, and because their winds and wave diagnostics show increasing differences from other analyses between similar to 30 and 10 hPa (their top level). Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperatures in the ECMWF 40-Yr Re-analysis (ERA-40) show unrealistic vertical structure, so this long-term reanalysis is also unsuited for quantitative studies. The NCEP/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) objective analyses give an inferior representation of the upper-stratospheric vortex. Polar vortex transport barriers are similar in all analyses, but there is large variation in the amount, patterns, and timing of mixing, even among the operational assimilated datasets (ECMWF, MetO, and GEOS-4). The higher-resolution GEOS-4 and ECMWF assimilations provide significantly better representation of filamentation and small-scale structure than the other analyses, even when fields gridded at reduced resolution are studied. The choice of which analysis to use is most critical for detailed transport studies (including polar process modeling) and studies involving synoptic evolution in the upper stratosphere. The operational assimilated datasets are better suited for most applications than the NCEP/CPC objective analyses and the reanalysis datasets.

stratosphere↗