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At least 235 records · Page 13

SSTDR and FDR Detection of Un-Energized and Energized Cable Anomalies Including Thermal Degradation Using Machine Learning

Historically, cables are initially qualified for nuclear power plant use for 40 years. As plants extend their operating license to 60 and 80 years, continued use of these cables must shift to a performance-based approach since it is cost prohibitive to completely replace cables that are likely still capable of performing their design function. A variety of cable tests are available and are commonly applied during outages when the cables can be taken out of service. Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is one of these test methods that is being more broadly accepted and used because it not only detects anomalies along the cable with a low-voltage signal that does not stress the cable insulation, but the technique also locates the anomalies. This supports follow-up local inspection and local repair or partial replacement of a damaged cable segment. Currently, FDR testing is only applied to cables that are taken out of service since the test instrument would be damaged by operational voltages. A related technology that has found some acceptance in the aircraft and rail industry is spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR). This technology has been implemented with a custom commercial instrument by LiveWire Innovation that is designed to operate on live cables up to 1000 volts and with a bandwidth of 48 MHz. Initial evaluation by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) of the Live Wire system indicated that a broader bandwidth (BW) SSTDR may be better for many kinds of flaws. This led PNNL to develop an SSTDR laboratory instrument suitable for tests up to 500 MHz bandwidth. Testing on energized cables is also desirable for online monitoring systems so an inductive clamshell coupler was developed that allows energized cables to be tested up to at least 5 kV and likely higher voltage levels. Dielectric spectroscopy and tan delta testing plus various laboratory destructive tests were included in this data acquisition campaign directed to feed a machine learning (ML) study. With these kinds of developments, online energized cable tests may be possible with industrial adoption of such hardware advances but it will be completely impractical to have highly skilled data analysts continually examine these complex signals for indications of damage or compromised conditions. If online testing is to be implemented in new test hardware, it must be accompanied by software that can interpret the signals and alert plant operators of changing or degraded conditions. The thermally aged, shielded cable investigated here was separately treated for ML analysis. Visual analysis of electrical data showed generally increasing peaks where the cable entered and exited the oven. These peaks were not exactly aligned with expected locations, but these differences were attributed to velocity of propagation calibration errors. Only supervised ML was applied to the thermally aged data as this data was only available shortly before the committed publication date of this report. The supervised ML was structured to divide the 0 to 70-day responses as ‘normal’ from 0 to 35 days or ‘anomalous’ from 36 to 70 days, based on cable tensile elongation at break (EAB) insulation characterization. Using 80% of the data for training and 20% for testing, the supervised ML predicted normal versus anomalous was 70% accurate. Important conclusions include: • Accuracy to predict the presence of cable damage is improved from the 2023 effort by more training data. Weighted accuracies for comparisons among the instruments ranged from 67 to 89 % for unsupervised ML and 71 to 99% for supervised ML. • Based on the synthetic data tests, the unsupervised models are more generalizable to unseen anomalies. The Multi-Layer Perceptron classifier (MLP) model reported as high as 99.7% accuracy on the test data, but this dropped to 58.3% when tested on the synthetic data. In contrast, the unsupervised Pointwise model only achieved 89.7% accuracy on the experimental data but reported 78.3% accuracy on the synthetic data. • The best anomaly indicators are higher frequency (400 MHz BW) FDR data. Other tests may be interesting but for this study, this was the best predicter.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Intracore Natural Circulation Study in the High Temperature Test Facility

The development of the Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor is a significant milestone in advanced nuclear reactor technology. One of the concerns for the reactor’s safe operation is the effects of a loss-of-flow accident (LOFA) where the coolant circulators are tripped, and forced coolant flow through the core is lost. Depending on the steam generator placement, loop or intracore natural circulation develops to help transfer heat from the core to the reactor cavity, cooling system. This paper investigates the fundamental physical phenomena associated with intracore coolant natural circulation flow in a one-sixth Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the Oregon State University High Temperature Test Facility (OSU HTTF) following a loss-of-flow accident transient. This study employs conjugate heat transfer and steady-state flow along with an SST k-ω turbulence model to characterize the phenomenon of core channel-to-channel natural convection. Previous studies have revealed the importance of complex flow distribution in the inlet and outlet plenums with the potential to generate hot coolant jets. For this reason, complete upper and lower plenum volumes are included in the analyzed computational domain. CFD results also include parametric studies performed for a mesh sensitivity analysis, generated using the STAR-CCM+ software. The resulting channel axial velocities and flow directions support the test facility scaling analysis and similarity group distortions calculation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs): an integrated observational data product supporting process-oriented investigations and diagnostics

A large and ever-growing body of geophysical information is measured in campaigns and at specialized observatories as a part of scientific expeditions and experiments. These collections of observed data include many essential climate variables (as defined by the Global Climate Observing System) but are often distinguished by a wide range of additional non-routine measurements that are designed to not only document the state of the environment but also the drivers that contribute to that state. These field data are used not only to further understand environmental processes through observation-based studies but also to provide baseline data to test model performance and to codify understanding to improve predictive capabilities. To address the considerable barriers and difficulty in utilizing these diverse and complex data for observation–model research, the Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) concept has been developed. A MODF combines measurements from multiple instruments into a single file that complies with well-established data format and metadata practices and has been designed to parallel the development of corresponding Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). Using the MODF and MMDF protocols will facilitate the evolution of model intercomparison projects into model intercomparison and improvement projects by putting observation and model data “on the same page” in a timely manner. The MODF concept was developed especially for weather forecast model studies in the Arctic. The surprisingly complex process of implementing MODFs in that context refined the concept itself. Thus, this article explains the concept of MODFs by providing details on the issues that were revealed and resolved during that first specific implementation. Detailed instructions are provided on how to make MODFs, and this article can be considered a MODF creation manual.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF): World-Class Systems Integration Capabilities and Research

The Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF), located at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) South Table Mountain campus, is a world-renowned user facility for research and development of modern, advanced, and clean energy technologies. ESIF is distinguished by its continuously evolving, highly integrated systems that span throughout the building, connecting research capabilities across multiple laboratories and test areas. The primary ESIF research systems include: [1] data, cyber, and control networks, [2] research electrical distribution buses (REDB), [3] thermal integration infrastructure, and [4] hydrogen systems. The data, cyber, and control networks provide monitoring, control, communication, automation, visualization, and time series data storage and tagging capabilities for research projects and ESIF systems, including facility safety functions. The REDB system consists of four dedicated AC and DC electrical power networks that can connect devices located across the facility through versatile, automatic circuit configuration to support complex power electronics experiments up to the megawatt-scale. The thermal integration infrastructure consists of three temperature-conditioned water loops that provide heating and cooling interfaces and capabilities for thermal energy research. The hydrogen systems provide megawatt-scale hydrogen production, drying, compression, high-pressure storage, and delivery to laboratory end uses, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fueling. The ESIF research systems interconnect and extend throughout the various lab areas of the facility to create elaborate networks composed of diverse technologies for cutting-edge research. The ESIF capabilities are operated and stewarded by the ESIF Research Operations group, who also actively upgrade and advance the systems to ensure they remain ahead of anticipated research - enabling the success of many pioneering energy integration projects. The poster, created by members of the ESIF Research Operations team, highlights and summarizes the four core integrated systems at ESIF. The poster was first presented at the internal NREL Energize Forum on May 13th, 2024, and received the "Best Poster" award.

capabilities↗

Plasma-Assisted Pre-Chamber Ignition System for Highly Dilute Stoichiometric Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines (Final Technical Report)

This project explored advanced ignition technologies to significantly enhance efficiency and reduce operating costs for heavy-duty natural gas engines operating at stoichiometric conditions, while meeting ultra-low NOx emission standards. The main goal was to develop and validate a plasma-assisted pre-chamber ignition system that could deliver at least a 2% increase in brake thermal efficiency (BTE) and a 4% decrease in total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to a typical multi-cylinder engine with three-way catalyst aftertreatment, ensuring compatibility with the expected 2027 EPA/CARB regulations. In the first half of the project, the research team concentrated on developing and testing plasma-assisted pre-chamber ignition using nanosecond pulsed discharges. Extensive experiments were conducted in an optically accessible rapid-compression and expansion machine, a constant-volume chamber, and an optical single-cylinder engine. Experiments were coupled with CFD simulations. The work produced unique insights into pre-chamber flame formation, jet ignition, dilution effects, and flame quenching at pressures, temperatures, and dilution levels relevant to engines. Although plasma-assisted ignition showed promise in controlled lab settings, the research also identified fundamental and practical challenges when applying this technology to real engine conditions. Midway through the project, a crucial pivot was made, guided by three key findings. First, the power electronics required for nanosecond plasma discharges were found to be too costly for commercial use, undermining the project’s cost-of-ownership goals. Second, nanosecond plasma ignition was highly sensitive to turbulent flow in the pre-chamber, resulting in lower ignition reliability than traditional spark under engine-like conditions. Third, achieving a truly diffuse low-temperature plasma at high pressures near top dead center was not possible, reducing the anticipated chemical enhancement benefits. These results collectively suggested that continuing with plasma-assisted ignition was unlikely to meet both efficiency and cost objectives. In response, the project shifted focus to a more realistic approach: enhancing traditional spark-based pre-chamber ignition with significantly less spark energy. Using insights gained earlier in the project, the team redesigned the pre-chamber to maintain high dilution tolerance and quick combustion, even with lower ignition energy. Testing confirmed that with optimized pre-chamber design and combustion timing, a lower-energy spark could reliably ignite highly diluted stoichiometric mixtures, reduce burn time, and boost thermal efficiency. Final engine testing and techno-economic analysis verified that this revised approach successfully achieved the project goals. The optimized pre-chamber ignition system provided over a 2% increase in calculated brake thermal efficiency compared to the baseline engine. Notably, the lower ignition energy and simplified hardware reduced component stress, extended maintenance intervals, and lowered the total cost of ownership. When used with stoichiometric operation and traditional three-way aftertreatment, the system remained compatible with near-zero NOx emissions targets without increasing cost or complexity in the emissions control system. In summary, although the project deviated from its initial plasma-assisted ignition idea, the work produced a more practical and commercially viable solution. The results show that precisely optimized, low-energy pre-chamber spark ignition can significantly improve efficiency and reduce overall ownership costs for heavy-duty natural gas engines. This directly aligns with DOE goals for cleaner, more efficient, and cost-effective transportation technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Optimal Droop Setting for Congestion Reduction in a 100% Grid-Forming Inverter-based Power System

he high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) introduces new challenges to power systems due to the complex inverter control. However, IBRs can be configured to maximize their benefits to improve system resilience and reliability. This paper proposes a steady-state optimization model that aims to mitigate transmission congestion in a 100% grid- forming (GFM) IBR-based power system. This goal is achieved by determining the optimal droop settings for the GFM IBRs under different congestion conditions due to renewable energy and load variations. The numerical solution is rigorously verified by a high-fidelity model of the IEEE 39-bus test system with detailed GFM IBR control in the time-domain electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tool PSCAD. The numerical solution and simulation results show a significant congestion reduction while meeting all other operating requirements. It is also observed that the numerical solving time is substantially less compared to the EMT simulation time.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications (Full Report)

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was developed to address the pressing need for faster, more reliable, and more adaptable scientific discovery. Traditional experimentation is limited by manual labor, long cycle times, and fragmented data streams, which constrain the ability to explore complex chemical and materials design spaces. To overcome these limitations, we created an integrated, modular platform that combines laboratory robotics, diverse measurement instruments, and a central data infrastructure with artificial intelligence–driven decision-making. The system links liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and optical plate readers into a closed loop where experiments are executed automatically, data is analyzed in real time, and subsequent experimental conditions are adaptively chosen to maximize information gain. Over the course of the project, MARS was validated on two primary test cases—spectroscopic metal–ligand binding assays and peptide-directed mineralization—which highlighted the system’s ability to handle uncertainty and variability in experimental measurements. To further demonstrate modularity and extensibility, we also established additional testbeds in electrochemistry for catalyst discovery and electrolyte formulation for advanced batteries. The results show that MARS can reliably conduct autonomous campaigns with minimal human intervention, adapt to distinct scientific domains, and provide a scalable model for future self-driving laboratories. This work establishes new capabilities for modular, uncertainty-aware automation and directly supports the need for advanced, data-driven research platforms capable of accelerating discovery across a wide range of scientific and national security missions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSIENT FISSION GAS RELEASE CAPABILITIES TO STUDY HIGH BURNUP COMMERCIAL FUEL PERFORMANCE UNDER LOSS OF COOLANT ACCIDENT CONDITIONS

The contribution of transient fission gas release to the burst behaviour of high burnup fuel during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) for commercial light water reactors is a complex phenomenon that is not fully understood. During the temperature ramp associated with a LOCA, there is significant, additional transient fission gas release in excess of steady state fission gas release from normal operation. The timing of this release and the various conditions that impact this release warrant further study. To better characterize this phenomenon, a system was developed to capture and characterize fission gas released from irradiated fuel during simulated LOCAs. This system is an upgrade to the existing Oak Ridge National Laboratory Severe Accident Test Station LOCA test apparatus and detects fission gas by gamma counting cryogenically cooled cold traps and by using an online gas mass spectrometer. The examined fuel can be pressurized or open to the furnace atmosphere. The design and operation of this new capability are discussed. Results from the first tests on high burnup fuel are presented. In the initial test, the LOCA relevant transient fission gas release was 5.3% for an unpressurized segment. Post-test microscopy on the tested samples is presented to demonstrate the likely radial source of transient fission gas release.

Harp, Jason↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Modernizing the Kokkos Build System: Using CMake to Encapsulate the Complexity of Build Instructions for Performance Portable Libraries

Kokkos, a C++ library focused on performance portability, requires a build system that can work with a variety of compilers and hardware. Ideally, users need only select the compiler and architecture and should not have to know or specify how programs using Kokkos are built. CMake can be used to create a flexible, robust build system and automatically configures compilers and settings based on the user’s inputs. Nevertheless, Kokkos’ requirements as a performance portability library for the build system exceed CMake’s current capabilities. This report describes the requirements, solutions, and testing of various implementations to create a CMake-based build system suitable for Kokkos. It compares the strengths and shortcomings of the approaches and evaluates the implementations with respect to the requirements. Because no solution was found to meet all of the requirements, the Kokkos team engaged with the CMake development team to discuss and plan a path toward support for performance-portable build systems in CMake in the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Microstructure-sensitive mechanical behavior of an additively manufactured psuedoelastic shape memory alloy

The additive manufacturing of shape memory alloys into complex geometries enables fabrication of advanced functional systems across a variety of fields and domains. This work presents results focused on the mechanical behavior of additively manufactured shape memory pseudoelastic NiTi. The deformation induced solid state phase transformation from austenite to martensite allows this system to accommodate large recoverable strains. This deformation behavior is fundamentally driven by crystal-scale transformation physics. Laser powder bed fusion processing reveals that the resulting microstructure, both grain morphology and crystallographic texture, is strongly dependent on the manufacturing processing history. Exhaustive mechanical testing demonstrates that these microstructural factors strongly impact both tensile and cyclic stress–strain behavior. Cyclic dissipative behavior, however, is similar across all tested microstructures following an initial transient period. Remarkably, analysis of spatial strain fields during tensile loading reveals two distinctly different localization “modes”. The first is initiation of localized deformation bands which continuously propagate through the tensile bar during loading. In the second mode localization is observed but lacks propagation; instead additional localization cites nucleate during subsequent loading. The latter phenomena is suspected to be driven by grain-scale deformation physics as the localized band morphologies coincide with grain morphologies. These phenomena strongly impact the resulting aggregate stress–strain behavior. Hence, manufacturers and designers of psuedoelastic functional components must at the very least consider the potential variability in properties when considering additive manufacturing processing. More ideally the process–structure–property relations can be used to further tailor and optimize final functional performance.

Additive manufacturing↗

Real-World Cyber Security Demonstration for Networked Electric Drives

In this article, we present the design and implementation of a cyber-physical security testbed for networked electric drive systems, aimed at conducting real-world security demonstrations. To our knowledge, this is one of the first security testbeds for networked electric drives, seamlessly integrating the domains of power electronics and computer science, and cybersecurity. By doing so, the testbed offers a comprehensive platform to explore and understand the intricate and often complex interactions between cyber and physical systems. The core of our testbed consists of four electric machine drives, meticulously configured to emulate small-scale but realistic information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) networks. This setup both provides a controlled environment for simulating a wide array of cyber-attacks, and mirrors potential real-world attack scenarios with a high degree of fidelity. The testbed serves as an invaluable resource for the study of cyber-physical security, offering a practical and dynamic platform for testing and validating cybersecurity measures in the context of networked electric drive systems. As a concrete example of the testbed's capabilities, we have developed and implemented a Python-based script designed to execute step-stone attacks over a wireless local area network (WLAN). This script leverages a sequence of target IP addresses, simulating a real-world attack vector that could be exploited by adversaries. To counteract such threats, we demonstrate the efficacy of our developed cyber-attack detection algorithms, which are integral to our testbed's security framework. Furthermore, the testbed incorporates a real-time visualization system using InfluxDB and Grafana, providing a dynamic and interactive representation of networked electric drives and their associated security monitoring mechanisms. This visualization component not only enhances the testbed's usability but also offers insightful, real-time data for researchers and practitioners, thereby facilitating a deeper understanding of cyber-physical security dynamics in networked electric drive systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Benchmarking Optimizers for Qumode State Preparation with Variational Quantum Algorithms

Quantum state preparation involves preparing a target state from an initial system, a process integral to applications such as quantum machine learning and solving systems of linear equations. Recently, there has been a growing interest in qumodes due to advancements in the field and their potential applications. However there is a notable gap in the literature specifically addressing this area. This paper aims to bridge this gap by providing performance benchmarks of various optimizers used in state preparation with Variational Quantum Algorithms. We conducted extensive testing across multiple scenarios, including different target states, both ideal and sampling simulations, and varying numbers of basis gate layers. Our evaluations offer insights into the complexity of learning each type of target state and demonstrate that some optimizers perform better than others in this context. Notably, the Powell optimizer was found to be exceptionally robust against sampling errors, making it a preferred choice in scenarios prone to such inaccuracies. Additionally, the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation optimizer was distinguished for its efficiency and ability to handle increased parameter dimensionality effectively.

Kan, Shuwen [Fordham University]↗

Neutrally-buoyant balloons experiment – EMRTC 2025

This memo announces the successful execution of the neutrally-buoyant balloon experiment (EMRTC 2025), conducted at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology’s Energetic Materials Research and Testing Center (EMRTC) in Socorro, NM between April 3 and May 9, 2025. The experiment aimed to build on EMRTC 2022 balloon experiment through testing the effects of lateral and vertical displacement of release locations in a different terrain than EMRTC 2022. EMRTC 2025 employed dual GPS trackers on each balloon to provide both detailed near-source motion tracking in addition to the low-frequency long-distance trackers used in EMRTC 2022. A total of 156 neutrally-buoyant balloons were released over the week of May 5-9, which was approximately 2.5 times the number released in the EMRTC 2022 campaign. The dual tracking system will allow characterizing complex three-dimensional wind structures close to terrain features and diurnal wind patterns to validate wind and plume dispersion models for treaty verification.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Electron cyclotron emission quasi-optical transmission system on the HL-3 tokamak

A new quasi-optical (QO) Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) transmission system has been established on the HL-3 tokamak, which includes a focusing QO mirror combination and a long-distance transmission line. This system was developed to meet the requirements for poloidal spatial resolution and the high signal-to-noise ratio needed for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability studies using ECE on the HL-3. The QO mirror combination was installed inside the vacuum chamber for focusing. Laboratory test results, theoretical calculations, and synthetic ECE simulation results indicate that the Gaussian beam can meet the spatial resolution requirements for the accurate measurement of the MHD instability on the q = 1/2/3 surfaces, corresponding to the poloidal mode numbers m = 3/6/9. This includes good diagnostic poloidal spatial resolution for the important 2/1 and 3/2 modes. At the front end of the transmission line, a high-efficiency mode converter was designed to transition the TE 10 mode to the HE 11 mode for input into the transmission line, with an insertion loss of less than 1.5 dB. A 30 m long-distance corrugated oversized waveguide was constructed, with transmission losses ranging from 6 to 10 dB in the 60–120 GHz range. Polarization adjustment results show that the polarization offset and geometric spatial polarization angle change consistently, which can provide a reference for polarization adjustment in other complex structured transmission lines. As a result, the newly established ECE QO transmission system will provide strong support for future physics research involving ECE on the HL-3.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Assessment of Flow-Enhanced Electrochemical Sensor Testing and Deployments

The goal of our activities in FY24 was to enable advanced materials accountancy for molten salt reactors (MSRs) through the development and optimization of robust flow-enhanced electrochemical sensors (FEES) using a safeguards-focused sensor testing platform called the modular flow instrumentation testbed (MFIT). Flow-enhanced electrochemical sensors are a type of electroanalytical sensor that have been developed at Argonne National Laboratory to be installed directly into MSR flow conduits to make measurements of the salt composition. These sensors represent a significant improvement in capabilities compared to earlier electroanalytical sensors that instead can only be operated in quiescent conditions. Previous work has focused on testing of the FEES in flowing conditions provided by the MFIT to assess the accuracy and precision of the sensor measurements. This year, the FEES technical readiness was increased by (1) demonstrating the use of optimized sensor techniques to achieve measurements in very high-concentration MSR-relevant salts, (2) leveraging new multimodal sensors and automation approaches to reduce measurement uncertainties, and (3) fabricating and deploying sensors to industrial partners to improve their ability to make measurements in challenging environments. Additionally, we also ran the sensors during complex system operations involving combined flow and purification activities to demonstrate safeguards-relevant measurements during online processing for MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimized cryogenic setup for microwave loss characterization of superconducting coaxial cables

As superconducting quantum systems scale up to enable applications like large-scale quantum computing, challenges such as fabrication yield, wiring complexity, and microwave crosstalk drive the need for high-fidelity, low-loss, modular interconnects. In recent experiments, the performance of these interconnects is often limited by cable loss, a factor that becomes even more critical as we aim for higher fidelity operations and connect increasingly coherent modules. In this talk, we present our cryogenic microwave loss characterization setup, carefully designed to minimize losses external to the coaxial cables under test. We also share results for several commercially-available superconducting cables measured with this setup and briefly discuss our ongoing efforts to develop custom coaxial cables capable of achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Vallières, André [Northwestern U.]↗

Optimized cryogenic setup for microwave loss characterization of superconducting coaxial cables

As superconducting quantum systems scale up to enable applications like large-scale quantum computing, challenges such as fabrication yield, wiring complexity, and microwave crosstalk drive the need for high-fidelity, low-loss, modular interconnects. In recent experiments, the performance of these interconnects is often limited by cable loss, a factor that becomes even more critical as we aim for higher fidelity operations and connect increasingly coherent modules. In this talk, we present our cryogenic microwave loss characterization setup, carefully designed to minimize losses external to the coaxial cables under test. We also share results for several commercially-available superconducting cables measured with this setup and briefly discuss our ongoing efforts to develop custom coaxial cables capable of achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Vallières, André [Northwestern U.]↗

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗