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DOE OSTI2020

Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 . In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15–20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. In this work, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Informed Machine Learning-Aided System Space Discretization

Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives based on an agreed-upon set of metrics and preferences established by the decision-maker. There are options to be considered during the decision-making process and each option offers a different trajectory and associated success profile in moving from a given system state to the desired system state. The decision-making process typically involves uncertainties associated with the current component and system states. In this sense, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) can be an analytical method and tool for accomplishing the probabilistic aspect of the decision-making process. Dynamic PRA is an evolution of conventional PRA methodology in which driving forces on modeled plant elements and the element behaviors are explicitly modeled over time. In the recent past, risk assessment methodologies have evolved to address risk issues in a continuously evolving environment and a novel probabilistic dynamics framework in continuous time and state-space discretization forms has been proposed. While state-space discretization has shown its strength in both consequence and causal reasoning modes, several challenges, including the computational requirement and physically meaningful system state identification, exist. Conventional system space discretization has usually been done by either the equal width discretization method or a data-driven method. Those methods naturally possess challenges coming from the physical understanding of discretized system space (i.e., system state) and the trajectory moving from a given system state to another system state. The purpose of this paper is to present a physics-based and data-driven system state discretization method such that one can justify what the discretized system space implies and understand the state trajectory from the viewpoint of operational actions.

Kim, Junyung↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection in Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Trajectories Using LSTM Autoencoder and Gaussian Mixture Model

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) technology has the potential to transform the transportation system. Although these new technologies have many advantages, the implementation raises significant concerns regarding safety, security, and privacy. Anomalies in sensor data caused by errors or cyberattacks can cause severe accidents. To address the issue, this study proposed an innovative anomaly detection algorithm, namely the LSTM Autoencoder with Gaussian Mixture Model (LAGMM). This model supports anomalous CAV trajectory detection in the real-time leveraging communication capabilities of CAV sensors. The LSTM Autoencoder is applied to generate low-rank representations and reconstruct errors for each input data point, while the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is employed for its strength in density estimation. The proposed model was jointly optimized for the LSTM Autoencoder and GMM simultaneously. The study utilizes realistic CAV data from a platooning experiment conducted for Cooperative Automated Research Mobility Applications (CARMAs). The experiment findings indicate that the proposed LAGMM approach enhances detection accuracy by 3% and precision by 6.4% compared to the existing state-of-the-art methods, suggesting a significant improvement in the field.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Molecular Diffusion at Block Copolymer Thin Films Using Maximum Entropy Method-Based Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy and Single Molecule Tracking

Fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) has been widely used to investigate molecular diffusion behavior in various samples. The use of the maximum entropy method (MEM) for FCS data analysis provides a unique means to determine multiple distinct diffusion coefficients without a priori assumption of their number. Comparison of the MEM-based FCS method (MEM-FCS) with another method will reveal its utility and advantage as an analytical tool to investigate diffusion dynamics. Herein, we measured diffusion of fluorescent probes doped into nanostructured thin films using MEM-FCS, and validated the results with single molecule tracking (SMT) data. The efficacy of the MEM code employed was first demonstrated by analyzing simulated FCS data for systems incorporating one and two diffusion modes with broadly distributed diffusion coefficients. The MEM analysis accurately afforded the number of distinct diffusion modes and their mean diffusion coefficients. These results contrasted with those obtained by fitting the simulated data to conventional two-component and anomalous diffusion models, which yielded inaccurate estimates of the diffusion coefficients. Subsequently, the MEM analysis was applied to FCS data acquired from hydrophilic dye molecules incorporated into microphase-separated polystyrene-block-poly(ethylene oxide) (PS-b-PEO) thin films characterized under a water-saturated nitrogen atmosphere. The MEM analysis revealed distinct fast and slow diffusion components attributable to molecules diffusing on the film surface and inside the film, respectively. SMT studies of the same materials yielded trajectories for mobile molecules that appear to follow the curved PEO microdomains. Diffusion coefficients obtained from the SMT data were consistent with those obtained for the slow diffusion component detected by MEM-FCS. Furthermore, these results highlight the utility of MEM-FCS and SMT for gaining complementary information on molecular diffusion processes in heterogeneous material systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

sourcePy

Pollutant source identification techniques (of which there are many variations) are either locked behind researchers writing their own code for each use case or GUI platforms that are easy to use but inflexible and opaque. The Python package sourcePy brings together many of the pollutant source identification algorithms, giving the user full control out of the box. It aims to create a platform for source identification experiments where the full analysis from beginning to end can be done in Python, with a level of specificity in design that isn't available in the GUI options. sourcePy provides users with a few key features: -A Python interface with HYSPLIT, which can be used to generate trajectories and concentration plumes -Several Python classes which standardize the preparation and processing of data related to source identification experiments -Example scripts and notebooks that allow even new python users to get started with their own experiments quickly -Visualization methods

Arseneau, Isaac [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Interplay between Trajectory Segmentation and Mode Inference Error

Travel behavior changes are essential to transportation decarbonization. Travel diaries, consisting of sequences of trips between places, are typically used to instrument human travel behavior. However, these diaries are only as accurate as the underlying methods used to construct them. Travel diary algorithms have been a popular research topic since the advent of Global Positioning System tracking surveys. These algorithms have typically been validated using prompted recall of presegmented trips, thus disregarding the continuity of mode inference. Phone operating systems have adopted battery-conserving techniques, but the resulting data collection errors have not been studied extensively. We introduce a framework to evaluate the accuracy of trip length computations and mode inference by analyzing continuous mode-segmented trajectories for groups of trips. We then use the framework to identify the input data quality and the impact of postprocessing. Our primary inputs to this evaluation are MobilityNet, a public dataset containing information from three artificial timelines covering 15 different travel modes, and sample open-source travel diary creation algorithms from the OpenPATH project. Our framework concretely shows that the variance of the distance error drops from (0.217, 0.0848) to (o.011, 0.0407) (Android, iOS) after postprocessing. Similarly, the weighted F-scores for mode inference increase from (0.25, 0.29) to (0.60, 0.74) (iOS, Android) between random forest and geographic information system-based models. We hope that this standardized method will be adapted to evaluate other, potentially proprietary, travel diary algorithms. Finally, the results can be used to understand and improve the state of the art in the travel diary creation field.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Metagenomic Insight into Environmentally Challenged Methane-Fed Microbial Communities

In this study, we aimed to investigate, through high-resolution metagenomics and metatranscriptomics, the composition and the trajectories of microbial communities originating from a natural sample, fed exclusively with methane, over 14 weeks of laboratory incubation. This study builds on our prior data, suggesting that multiple functional guilds feed on methane, likely through guild-to-guild carbon transfer, and potentially through intraguild and intraspecies interactions. We observed that, under two simulated dioxygen partial pressures—low versus high—community trajectories were different, with considerable variability among the replicates. In all microcosms, four major functional guilds were prominently present, representing Methylococcaceae (the true methanotrophs), Methylophilaceae (the nonmethanotrophic methylotrophs), Burkholderiales, and Bacteroidetes. Additional functional guilds were detected in multiple samples, such as members of Opitutae, as well as the predatory species, suggesting additional complexity for methane-oxidizing communities. Metatranscriptomic analysis suggested simultaneous expression of the two alternative types of methanol dehydrogenases in both Methylococcaceae and Methylophilaceae, while high expression of the oxidative/nitrosative stress response genes suggested competition for dioxygen among the community members. The transcriptomic analysis further suggested that Burkholderiales likely feed on acetate that is produced by Methylococcaceae under hypoxic conditions, while Bacteroidetes likely feed on biopolymers produced by both Methylococcaceae and Methylophilaceae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Lagrangian perspective on tropical anvil cloud lifecycle in present and future climate

The evolution of tropical anvil clouds from their origin in deep convective cores to their slow decay determines the climatic effects of clouds in tropical convective regions. Despite the relevance of anvil clouds for climate and responses of clouds to global warming, processes dominating their evolution are not well understood. Currently available observational data reveal instantaneous snapshots of anvil cloud properties, but cannot provide a process-based perspective on anvil evolution. We therefore conduct simulations with the high resolution version of the Exascale Earth System Model in which we track mesoscale convective systems over the Tropical Western Pacific and compute trajectories that follow air parcels detrained from peaks of convective activity. With this approach we gain new insight into the anvil cloud evolution both in present day and future climate. Comparison with geostationary satellite data shows that the model is able to simulate maritime mesoscale convective systems reasonably well. Trajectory results indicate that anvil cloud lifetime is about 15 hours with no significant change in a warmer climate. The anvil ice mixing ratio is larger in a warmer climate due to a larger source of ice by detrainment and larger depositional growth leading to a more negative net cloud radiative effect along detrained trajectories. However, the increases in sources are counteracted by increases in sinks of ice, particularly snow formation and sedimentation. Furthermore, we find that the mean anvil cloud feedback along trajectories is positive and consistent with results from more traditional cloud feedback calculation methods.

climate, weather, mesocale cellular convection↗

DOE OSTI2023

Correlated Trajectory Uncertainty for Adaptive Sequential Decision Making

One of the great challenges with decision making tasks on real world systems is the fact that data is sparse and acquiring additional data is expensive. In these cases, it is often crucial to make a model of the environment to assist in making decisions. At the same time, limited data means that learned models are erroneous, making it just as important to equip the model with good predictive uncertainties. In the context of learning sequential decision making policies, these uncertainties can prove useful for informing which data to collect for the greatest improvement in policy performance \citep{mehta2021experimental, mehta2022exploration} or informing the policy about unsure regions of state and action space to avoid during test time \citep{yu2020mopo}. Additionally, assuming that realistic samples of the environment can be drawn, an adaptable policy can be trained that attempts to make optimal decisions for any given possible instance of the environment \citep{ghosh2022offline, chen2021offline}. In this work, we examine the so-called ``probabilistic neural network'' (PNN) model that is ubiquitous in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) works. We argue that while PNN models may have good marginal uncertainties, they form a distribution of non-smooth transition functions. Not only are these samples unrealistic and may hamper adaptability, but we also assert that this leads to poor uncertainty estimates when predicting multiple step trajectory estimates. To address this issue, we propose a simple sampling method that can be implemented on top of pre-existing models.We evaluate our sampling technique on a number of environments, including a realistic nuclear fusion task, and find that, not only do smooth transition function samples produce more calibrated uncertainties, but they also lead to better downstream performance for an adaptive policy.

Offline Reinforcement Learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Forward sensitivity analysis and mode dependent control for closure modeling of Galerkin systems

Model reduction by projection-based approaches is often associated with losing some of the important features that contribute towards the dynamics of the retained scales. As a result, a mismatch occurs between the predicted trajectories of the original system and the truncated one. We put forth a framework to apply a continuous time control signal in the latent space of the reduced order model (ROM) to account for the effect of truncation. We set the control input using parameterized models by following energy transfer principles. Our methodology relies on observing the system behavior in the physical space and using the projection operator to restrict the feedback signal into the latent space. Then, we leverage the forward sensitivity method (FSM) to derive relationships between the feedback and the desired mode-dependent control. We test the performance of the proposed approach using two test cases, corresponding to viscous Burgers and vortex merger problems at high Reynolds number. Results show that the ROM trajectory with the applied FSM control closely matches its target values in both the data-dense and data-sparse regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rapidity-dependent spin decomposition of the nucleon

We revisit the two-dimensional Fourier transform of generalized parton distributions (GPDs) at nonzero skewness. At 𝜂 = 0 it reduces to the standard impact-parameter density, while at 𝜂 ≠ 0 it is an off-forward amplitude that we interpret as a genuine parton–nucleon correlation. Its overall strength (the transverse-plane integral of the density) is fixed by the GPD at the kinematic point 𝑡 =−𝑐 𝜂 =−4⁢𝜂 2 ⁢𝑚$^{2}_{𝑁}$/(1 − 𝜂 2 ) and decreases monotonically with the rapidity gap Δ⁢𝑦 = ln⁡[(1+𝜂)/(1−𝜂)] = 2 artanh⁡(𝜂). This rapidity dependence implies rapidity-modified Ji identities that connect helicity, orbital, and total angular momenta of the correlation in closed form. To quantify these effects, we construct leading-twist quark and gluon GPDs in a string-based conformal framework: conformal moments are parametrized by linear open- and closed-string Regge trajectories with slopes constrained by parton distribution functions (PDFs), hadron/glueball spectroscopy, and form-factor data, and GPDs are reconstructed over the full (𝑥,𝜂,𝑡) domain by Mellin-Barnes inversion with next-to-leading order evolution. We find qualitative agreement (and fair quantitative agreement within quoted uncertainties) for several moments and selected nonsinglet 𝑥-space channels at 𝜇 = 2 GeV when compared with lattice QCD, while we also identify channels with visible tension and discuss likely sources (PDF priors and 𝑡-slope systematics).

Gauge-gravity dualities↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Newly Measured 𝛽-Delayed Neutron Emitters around 78 Ni on Light Element Nucleosynthesis in the Neutrino Wind Following a Neutron Star Merger

Neutron emission probabilities and half-lives of 37 𝛽-delayed neutron emitters from 75 Ni to 92 Br were measured at the RIKEN Nishina Center in Japan, including 11 one-neutron and 13 two-neutron emission probabilities and six half-lives for the first time that supersede theoretical estimates. These nuclei lie in the path of the weak 𝑟 process occurring in neutrino-driven winds from the accretion disk formed after the merger of two neutron stars synthesizing elements in the 𝐴∼80 abundance peak. The presence of such elements dominates the accompanying kilonova emission over the first few days and have been identified in the AT2017gfo event, associated to the gravitational wave detection GW170817. Abundance calculations based on over 17,000 simulated trajectories describing the evolution of matter properties in the merger outflows show that the new data lead to an increase of 50%–70% in the abundance of Y, Zr, Nb, and Mo. This enhancement is large compared to the scatter of relative abundances observed in old very metal poor stars and thus is significant in the comparison with other possible astrophysical processes contributing to the light-element production. These results underline the importance of including experimental decay data for very neutron-rich 𝛽 -delayed neutron emitters into 𝑟 -process models.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Influence of Pressure on Flame-Flow Characteristics of a Reacting Jet in Crossflow

This work experimentally investigates the effects of elevated combustor pressures on the characteristics of a lean premixed reacting methane/air jet injected into a lean vitiated crossflow using a 12.7 mm axial jet. Experiments were conducted in an axially staged combustor, which implements a reacting jet in crossflow (RJIC) configuration and operates over a pressure range of 1–5 atmospheres. Simultaneous CH* chemiluminescence and particle image velocimetry (PIV) are used to study the flow field and flame behavior. The results show that the reacting jet trajectory exhibits greater penetration with elevated pressure, which is a novel finding compared to available data in the literature. However, the flame liftoff point and ignition delay time both decreased with elevated pressure, which was attributed to decreased vorticity along the flame boundary which corresponds to increased Damköhler numbers (Da). Emissions measurements confirm the NOx increase with pressure as reported in the literature for single-stage gas turbine combustors. Concurrently, emission measurements for the staged configuration show the strong NOx benefit of the RJIC system: the data prove a reduction of global outlet emission levels at elevated pressure with the axially staged configuration. Here, the axial emission reduction was attributed to the decreasing liftoff at elevated pressure levels. Hence, the research emphasizes that the flame and emission characteristics are coupled; they are not only dependent on the geometric parameters and momentum flux ratios but are also a function of pressure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diverse signatures of convergent evolution in cactus-associated yeasts

Many distantly related organisms have convergently evolved traits and lifestyles that enable them to live in similar ecological environments. However, the extent of phenotypic convergence evolving through the same or distinct genetic trajectories remains an open question. Here, we leverage a comprehensive dataset of genomic and phenotypic data from 1,049 yeast species in the subphylum Saccharomycotina (Kingdom Fungi, Phylum Ascomycota) to explore signatures of convergent evolution in cactophilic yeasts, ecological specialists associated with cacti. We inferred that the ecological association of yeasts with cacti arose independently approximately 17 times. Using a machine learning–based approach, we further found that cactophily can be predicted with 76% accuracy from both functional genomic and phenotypic data. The most informative feature for predicting cactophily was thermotolerance, which we found to be likely associated with altered evolutionary rates of genes impacting the cell envelope in several cactophilic lineages. We also identified horizontal gene transfer and duplication events of plant cell wall–degrading enzymes in distantly related cactophilic clades, suggesting that putatively adaptive traits evolved independently through disparate molecular mechanisms. Notably, we found that multiple cactophilic species and their close relatives have been reported as emerging human opportunistic pathogens, suggesting that the cactophilic lifestyle—and perhaps more generally lifestyles favoring thermotolerance—might preadapt yeasts to cause human disease. This work underscores the potential of a multifaceted approach involving high-throughput genomic and phenotypic data to shed light onto ecological adaptation and highlights how convergent evolution to wild environments could facilitate the transition to human pathogenicity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aircraft Icing Severity Evaluation

Aircraft icing refers to the ice buildup on the surface of an aircraft flying in icing conditions. The ice accretion on the aircraft alters the original aerodynamic configuration and degrades the aerodynamic performances and may lead to unsafe flight conditions. Evaluating the flow structure, icing mechanism and consequences is of great importance to the development of an anti/deicing technique. Studies have shown computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and machine learning (ML) to be effective in predicting the ice shape and icing severity under different flight conditions. CFD solves a set of partial differential equations to obtain the air flow fields, water droplets trajectories and ice shape. ML is a branch of artificial intelligence and, based on the data, the self-improved computer algorithms can be effective in finding the nonlinear mapping relationship between the input flight conditions and the output aircraft icing severity features.

Li, Sibo (ORCID:000000021705844X)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven discovery of dynamics from time-resolved coherent scattering

Coherent X-ray scattering (CXS) techniques are capable of interrogating dynamics of nano- to mesoscale materials systems at time scales spanning several orders of magnitude. However, obtaining accurate theoretical descriptions of complex dynamics is often limited by one or more factors—the ability to visualize dynamics in real space, computational cost of high-fidelity simulations, and effectiveness of approximate or phenomenological models. In this work, we develop a data-driven framework to uncover mechanistic models of dynamics directly from time-resolved CXS measurements without solving the phase reconstruction problem for the entire time series of diffraction patterns. Our approach uses neural differential equations to parameterize unknown real-space dynamics and implements a computational scattering forward model to relate real-space predictions to reciprocal-space observations. This method is shown to recover the dynamics of several computational model systems under various simulated conditions of measurement resolution and noise. Moreover, the trained model enables estimation of long-term dynamics well beyond the maximum observation time, which can be used to inform and refine experimental parameters in practice. Finally, we demonstrate an experimental proof-of-concept by applying our framework to recover the probe trajectory from a ptychographic scan. Our proposed framework bridges the wide existing gap between approximate models and complex data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long short-term memory embedded nudging schemes for nonlinear data assimilation of geophysical flows

Reduced rank nonlinear filters are increasingly utilized in data assimilation of geophysical flows, but often require a set of ensemble forward simulations to estimate forecast covariance. On the other hand, predictor-corrector type nudging approaches are still attractive due to their simplicity of implementation when more complex methods need to be avoided. However, optimal estimate of nudging gain matrix might be cumbersome. In this paper, we put forth a fully nonintrusive recurrent neural network approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding architecture to estimate the nudging term, which plays a role not only to force the state trajectories to the observations but also acts as a stabilizer. Furthermore, our approach relies on the power of archival data and the trained model can be retrained effectively due to power of transfer learning in any neural network applications. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, we perform twin experiments using Lorenz 96 system. Our results demonstrate that the proposed LSTM nudging approach yields more accurate estimates than both extended Kalman filter (EKF) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) when only sparse observations are available. With the availability of emerging AI-friendly and modular hardware technologies and heterogeneous computing platforms, we articulate that our simplistic nudging framework turns out to be computationally more efficient than either the EKF or EnKF approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗