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DOE OSTI2023

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linear two-pool models are insufficient to infer soil organic matter decomposition temperature sensitivity from incubations

Abstract Terrestrial carbon (C)-climate feedbacks depend strongly on how soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition responds to temperature. This dependency is often represented in land models by the parameter Q 10 , which quantifies the relative increase of microbial soil respiration per 10 °C temperature increase. Many studies have conducted paired laboratory soil incubations and inferred “active” and “slow” pool Q 10 values by fitting linear two-pool models to measured respiration time series. Using a recently published incubation study (Qin et al. in Sci Adv 5(7):eaau1218, 2019) as an example, here we first show that the very high parametric equifinality of the linear two-pool models may render such incubation-based Q 10 estimates unreliable. In particular, we show that, accompanied by the uncertain initial active pool size, the slow pool Q 10 can span a very wide range, including values as high as 100, although all parameter combinations are producing almost equally good model fit with respect to the observations. This result is robust whether or not interactions between the active and slow pools are considered (typically these interactions are not considered when interpreting incubation data, but are part of the predictive soil carbon models). This very large parametric equifinality in the context of interpreting incubation data is consistent with the poor temporal extrapolation capability of linear multi-pool models identified in recent studies. Next, using a microbe-explicit SOM model (RESOM), we show that the inferred two pools and their associated parameters (e.g., Q 10 ) could be artificial constructs and are therefore unreliable concepts for integration into predictive models. We finally discuss uncertainties in applying linear two-pool (or more generally multiple-pool) models to estimate SOM decomposition parameters such as temperature sensitivities from laboratory incubations. We also propose new observations and model structures that could enable better process understanding and more robust predictive capabilities of soil carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Minerals limit the deep soil respiration response to warming in a tropical Andisol

Tropical regions hold one third of the world’s soil organic carbon, but few experiments have warmed tropical soils in situ. The vulnerability of these soils to climate change-induced losses is uncertain with many hypothesizing these soils would be less sensitive to climate change because already-high temperatures in tropical systems might limit microbial sensitivity or due to increased mineral protection of organic carbon in highly weathered tropical soils. Here we present the results of a deep soil (0–100 cm) warming experiment in a tropical Andisol. Andisols can store large, persistent pools of soil carbon that are protected from decomposition by poorly and non-crystalline minerals (PNCM). In 20 cm depth intervals, we measured key soil properties including carbon, nitrogen, pH, PNCM, bacterial and fungal richness along with temperature, moisture, and CO 2 production. Over a year of soil warming, CO 2 production significantly increased by 50–300% per degree of warming, but only in the top 40 cm of the soil profile in contrast to the results of other deep soil warming experiments. Multimodal analysis supported our hypothesis that high concentrations of PNCM was the primary driver of the lack of CO 2 response, followed by high relative soil moisture and low bacterial richness, which may be a proxy for organic carbon availability. The lack of elevated CO 2 production in response to warming suggests a limited positive feedback to climate change in Andisols driven by their strong mineral protection of organic matter. Therefore, Andisols should be considered high priority restoration or protection areas when considering the management of soil carbon stocks as part of climate action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). Furthermore, we find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO 2 ). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Using Filter Methods to Guide Convergence for ADMM, with Applications to Nonnegative Matrix Factorization Problems

Nonconvex, nonlinear optimization problems arise naturally in parameter fitting and machine learning. While augmented Lagrangian methods have demonstrated robust convergence for classes of these problems, their convergence for block updates has been relatively unexplored outside of the context of the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). ADMM has seen extensive use in these applications, but may exhibit uncertain convergence behavior in many practical nonconvex settings, and struggles with general nonlinear constraints. In contrast, filter methods have proved effective in enforcing convergence for sequential quadratic programming methods and interior point methods with feasibility criteria. We develop an ADMM-filter method for highly nonlinear and nonconvex problems. Here, we show convergence under mild assumptions for several types of coordinate descent schemes, and demonstrate our algorithm on nonnegative matrix factorization and completion problems in imaging and chemical spectrum analysis.

Nonconvex optimization↗

DOE OSTI2025

A heat and mass transfer model for evaluation of damaged cesium chloride radiological sources

Radiological sources are vital to many applications, and typically contain byproducts from waste streams which decay over time to form complex mixtures of elements. Daughter products resulting from these decay processes can introduce complicating factors to the integrity and safety of the vessel that contains the radiological material. Sources containing cesium 137 ( 137 Cs) are of particular interest, because the decay of this isotope produces barium metal which reacts readily and exothermically with oxygen. This work employs physics-based numerical tools to examine the thermal response of a radiological source containing a mixture of cesium and barium in the event that vessel walls are damaged and atmospheric gases contact source material. A parametric study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the response to various factors, including vessel geometry, source material age, the degree of vessel damage, and other parameters. Here, it was found that the peak temperatures that occurred within the source material strongly depend on these parameters, particularly vessel geometry and age, which determine whether a breach would be a relatively minor accident or a catastrophic incident. Finally, the model’s sensitivity to uncertain thermophysical properties is discussed.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Lagrangian dual method for two-stage robust optimization with binary uncertainties

This report presents a new exact method to calculate worst-case parameter realizations in two-stage robust optimization problems with categorical or binary-valued uncertain data. Traditional exact algorithms for these problems, notably Benders decomposition and column-and-constraint generation, compute worst-case parameter realizations by solving mixed-integer bilinear optimization subproblems. However, their numerical solution can be computationally expensive not only due to their resulting large size after reformulating the bilinear terms, but also because decision-independent bounds on their variables are typically unknown. We propose an alternative Lagrangian dual method that circumvents these difficulties and is readily integrated in either algorithm. We specialize the method to problems where the binary parameters switch on or off constraints as these are commonly encountered in applications, and discuss extensions to problems that lack relatively complete recourse and to those with integer recourse. Numerical experiments provide evidence of significant computational improvements over existing methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the modeling paradigm of plant root nutrient acquisition

Plant root nutrient acquisition, and to a lesser extent foliar nutrient uptake, maintain plant metabolism and strongly regulate terrestrial biogeochemistry and carbon-climate feedbacks. However, terrestrial biogeochemical models differ in their representations of plant root nutrient acquisition, leading to significantly different, and uncertain, carbon cycle and future climate projections. Here we first review biogeochemical principles and observations relevant to three essential plant root nutrient acquisition mechanisms: activity of nutrient acquiring proteins, maintenance of nutrient stoichiometry, and energy expenditure for these processes. We next examine how these mechanisms are considered in three existing modeling paradigms, and conclude by recommending the capacity-based approach, the need for observations, and necessary modeling developments of plant root nutrient acquisition to improve carbon-climate feedback projections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimization models for integrated biorefinery operations

Variations of physical and chemical characteristics of biomass lead to an uneven flow of biomass in a biorefinery, which reduces equipment utilization and increases operational costs. Uncertainty of biomass supply and high processing costs increase the risk of investing in the US’s cellulosic biofuel industry. We propose a stochastic programming model to streamline processes within a biorefinery. A chance constraint models system’s reliability requirement that the reactor is operating at a high utilization rate given uncertain biomass moisture content, particle size distribution, and equipment failure. The model identifies operating conditions of equipment and inventory level to maintain a continuous flow of biomass to the reactor. Furthermore, the sample average approximation method approximates the chance constraint and a bisection search-based heuristic solves this approximation. A case study is developed using real-life data collected at Idaho National Laboratory’s biomass processing facility. An extensive computational analysis indicates that sequencing of biomass bales based on moisture level, increasing storage capacity, and managing particle size distribution, increases utilization of the reactor and reduces operational costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Propagation of Input Uncertainties in Numerical Simulations of Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser powder bed fusion has the potential of redefining state-of-the-art processing and production methods, but defect formation and inconsistent build quality have limited the implementation of this process. Numerical models are widely used to study this process and predict the formation of these defects. Presently, the uncertainties of model input parameters and thermophysical properties used by these numerical simulations have not been investigated. In the present study, the uncertainty in these input parameters and material properties are quantified for laser powder bed fusion, with and without a simulated powder bed, to determine their influence on the predictive accuracy of an experimentally validated numerical model. Accounting for all possible sources of uncertainty quickly becomes computationally expensive on account of the curse of dimensionality. Uncertainty in laser absorption, solid, and liquid specific heat of the metal were found to have the largest effect on model prediction reliability with or without the use of a powder bed. Results also illustrate that accounting for these three uncertain parameters still captures the majority of model prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, the methodology of this study may be used to understand the uncertainty in as-built microstructure through propagation to microstructure prediction models, or applied under processing conditions where high Péclet numbers are observed and the thermal convection and fluid flow within the molten pool are substantial.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System

Abstract Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 10 5 ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ( $${54}_{-14}^{+5}$$ 54 - 14 + 5 %, or ~ 50 × 10 5 ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was $${63}_{-3}^{+2}$$ 63 - 3 + 2 %, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of $${5}_{-5}^{+16}$$ 5 - 5 + 16 % and $${4}_{-6}^{+14}$$ 4 - 6 + 14 %, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Multiple Geophysical Methods to Refine a Stratigraphic Conceptual Site Model at a Nuclear Waste Site

At contaminated sites, there is a critical reliance on conceptual site models of which a key component is the geologic framework model (GFM), which is used to build predictive fate and transport modeling in support of remediation goals. Here, we detail an ongoing study at a nuclear waste site (Hanford Site, Washington, USA) where surface geophysical methods were used to complement existing borehole information and to help site new boreholes to update and refine the GFM. Ground-based electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), time-domain electromagnetics (TEM), and seismic data was acquired on the Hanford Site’s Central Plateau, where the presence of a hydraulically transmissive subsurface feature, or paleochannel, was suspected but uncertain based on contaminant concentrations at sparsely located boreholes. To assess and compare ERT, TEM, and seismic geophysical datasets, co-located data was acquired in an area where the existing GFM was more certain. Surrounding the suspected paleochannel, ERT and seismic refraction tomography showed similar subsurface structures consistent with a channelized feature. While TEM interpretation was limited in the suspected paleochannel area due to a thick resistive top layer and high electromagnetic noise, TEM showed greater utility in a different area where these factors were less prevalent. Based on the results of quasi-3D ERT inversions, we propose updates to the GFM, including identifying a paleochannel. Further, we evaluate the utility of geophysical methods and examine lessons learned that will be used as a basis for continued characterization efforts to support site management decisions and implementation efforts.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

How deep to dig: effects of web-scraping search depth on hyperlink network analysis of environmental stewardship organizations

Abstract Social network analysis (SNA) tools and concepts are essential for addressing many environmental management and sustainability issues. One method to gather SNA data is to scrape them from environmental organizations’ websites. Web-based research can provide important opportunities to understand environmental governance and policy networks while potentially reducing costs and time when compared to traditional survey and interview methods. A key parameter is ‘search depth,’ i.e., how many connected pages within a website to search for information. Existing research uses a variety of depths and no best practices exist, undermining research quality and case study comparability. We therefore analyze how search depth affects SNA data collection among environmental organizations, if results vary when organizations have different objectives, and how search depth affects social network structure. We find that scraping to a depth of three captures the majority of relevant network data regardless of an organization’s focus. Stakeholder identification (i.e., who is in the network) may require less scraping, but this might under-represent network structure (i.e., who is connected). We also discuss how scraping web-pages of local programs of larger organizations may lead to uncertain results and how our work can combine with mixed methods approaches.

Sayles, Jesse S. (ORCID:0000000218378920)↗