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DOE OSTI2023

TRISO fuel performance analysis: Uncertainty quantification toward optimization

Tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles are a fuel form being considered for potential use in next-generation nuclear reactors (i.e., high-temperature gas-cooled reactors). Though the TRISO fuel manufacturing process has continually advanced in recent years, particle comparisons still reveal statistical variations and uncertainties in terms of geometric configurations and material properties. Given that the physical processes ongoing in TRISO fuel particles during reactor operation are highly correlated with each other, a small degree of uncertainty in one model may lead to significant uncertainty in another. This makes appropriate uncertainty quantification of TRISO fuel particles essential. However, one may wonder about the extent to which the current version of TRISO particles has been optimized, and whether any room remains for further improvements. This paper quantifies TRISO fuel performance model uncertainties that stem from geometric and material data. For this analysis, the BISON code was used, and the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiment served as a reference case. A total of 10 5 calculations was performed for the uncertainty and optimization analysis, altering the geometric and material data within their uncertainty range. Lastly, the optimization potential of TRISO particles is evaluated from a fuel performance perspective.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality

Climate change can aggravate air pollution, with important public health and environmental consequences. While major sources of uncertainty in climate change projections - greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, model response, and internal variability - have been investigated extensively, their propagation to estimates of air quality impacts has not been systematically assessed. Here, we compare these uncertainties using a coupled modeling framework that includes a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and a global atmospheric chemistry model. Uncertainties in projections of U.S. air quality under 21st century climate change are quantified based on a climate-chemistry ensemble that includes multiple initializations, representations of climate sensitivity, and climate policy scenarios, under constant air pollution emissions. We find that climate-related uncertainties are comparable at mid-century, making it difficult to distinguish the impact of variations in GHG emissions on ozone and particulate matter pollution. While GHG emissions scenario eventually becomes the dominant uncertainty based on the scenarios considered, all sources of uncertainty are significant through the end of the century. The results provide insights into intrinsically different uncertainties in projections of air pollution impacts and the potential for large ensembles to better capture them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters

Abstract Climate change is having significant impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and carbon budgets, and in the Arctic may drive a shift from an historic carbon sink to a source. Large uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to forecast Arctic changes demonstrate the challenges of determining the timing and extent of this possible switch. This spread in model predictions can limit the ability of TBMs to guide management and policy decisions. One of the most influential sources of model uncertainty is model parameterization. Parameter uncertainty results in part from a mismatch between available data in databases and model needs. We identify that mismatch for three TBMs, DVM-DOS-TEM, SIPNET and ED2, and four databases with information on Arctic and boreal above- and belowground traits that may be applied to model parametrization. However, focusing solely on such data gaps can introduce biases towards simple models and ignores structural model uncertainty, another main source for model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the Arctic and boreal ecosystem that includes unquantified, and thus unmodeled, processes. We map model parameters to processes in the CLD and assess parameter vulnerability via the internal network structure. One important substructure, feed forward loops (FFLs), describe processes that are linked both directly and indirectly. When the model parameters are data-informed, these indirect processes might be implicitly included in the model, but if not, they have the potential to introduce significant model uncertainty. We find that the parameters describing the impact of local temperature on microbial activity are associated with a particularly high number of FFLs but are not constrained well by existing data. By employing ecological models of varying complexity, databases, and network methods, we identify the key parameters responsible for limited model accuracy. They should be prioritized for future data sampling to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Defining Computational Emissivity Uncertainty Over Large Temperature Scales Due to Surface Evolution

There is a dearth in the literature on how to capture the uncertainty generated by material surface evolution in thermal modeling. This leads to inadequate or highly variable uncertainty representations for material properties, specifically emissivity when minimal information is available. Inaccurate understandings of prediction uncertainties may lead decision makers to incorrect conclusions, so best engineering practices should be developed for this domain. In order to mitigate the aforementioned issues, this study explores different strategies to better capture the thermal uncertainty response of engineered systems exposed to fire environments via defensible emissivity uncertainty characterizations that can be easily adapted to a variety of use cases. Here, two unique formulations (one physics-informed and one mathematically based) are presented. The formulations and methodologies presented herein are not exhaustive but more so are a starting point and give the reader a basis for how to customize their uncertainty definitions for differing fire scenarios and materials. Lastly, the impact of using this approach versus other commonly used strategies and the usefulness of adding rigor to material surface evolution uncertainty is demonstrated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Annual Energy Resulting from Uncertain Irradiance Measurements

We report an analysis quantifying the contribution to uncertainty in annual energy projections from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance. Uncertainty in measured irradiance is quantified for eight instruments by the difference from a well maintained, secondary standard pyranometer which is regarded as truthful. We construct a statistical model of irradiance uncertainty and apply the model to generate a sample of 100 annual time series of irradiance for each instrument. The sample is propagated through a common performance model for a reference photovoltaic system to quantify variation in annual energy. Although the measured irradiance varies from the reference by a few percent (standard deviation of 1-2%) the uncertainty in annual energy is on the order of a fraction of one percent. We propose a model for a factor that represents uncertainty in modeled annual energy that arises from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainties in ab initio nuclear structure calculations with chiral interactions

We present theoretical ground state energies and their uncertainties for p -shell nuclei obtained from chiral effective field theory internucleon interactions as a function of chiral order, fitted to two- and three-body data only. We apply a Similary Renormalization Group transformation to improve the numerical convergence of the many-body calculations, and discuss both the numerical uncertainties arising from basis truncations and those from omitted induced many-body forces, as well as chiral truncation uncertainties. With complete Next-to-Next-to-Leading (N 2 LO) order two- and three-body interactions, we find significant overbinding for the ground states in the upper p -shell, but using higher-order two-body potentials, in combination with N 2 LO three-body forces, our predictions agree with experiment throughout the p -shell to within our combined estimated uncertainties. The uncertainties due to chiral order truncation are noticeably larger than the numerical uncertainties, but they are expected to become comparable to the numerical uncertainties at complete N 3 LO.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wake steering optimization under uncertainty

Turbines in wind power plants experience significant power losses when wakes from upstream turbines affect the energy production of downstream turbines. A promising plant-level control strategy to reduce these losses is wake steering, where upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. However, there are significant uncertainties in many aspects of the wake steering problem. For example, infield sensors do not give perfect information, and inflow to the plant is complex and difficult to forecast with available information, even over short time periods. Here, we formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for determining optimal plant-level wake steering strategies in the presence of independent uncertainties in the direction, speed, turbulence intensity, and shear of the incoming wind, as well as in turbine yaw positions. The OUU wake steering strategy is first examined for a two-turbine test case to explore the impacts of different types of inflow uncertainties, and it is then demonstrated for a more realistic 11-turbine wind power plant. Of the sources of uncertainty considered, we find that wake steering strategies are most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind speed and direction. When maximizing expected power production, the OUU strategy also tends to favor smaller yaw angles, which have been shown in previous work to reduce turbine loading. Ultimately, the plant-level wake steering strategy formulated using an OUU approach yields 0.48?% more expected annual energy production for the 11-turbine wind plant than a strategy that neglects uncertainty when considering stochastic inputs. Thus, not only does the present OUU strategy produce more power in realistic conditions, but it also reduces risk by prescribing strategies that call for less extreme yaw angles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Long-term uncertainty quantification in WRF-modeled offshore wind resource off the US Atlantic coast

Uncertainty quantification of long-term modeled wind speed is essential to ensure stakeholders can best leverage wind resource numerical data sets. Offshore, this need is even stronger given the limited availability of observations of wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy purposes and the resulting heavier relative weight of numerical data sets for wind energy planning and operational projects. In this analysis, we consider the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 21-year updated numerical offshore data set for the US East Coast and provide a methodological framework to leverage both floating lidar and near-surface buoy observations in the region to quantify uncertainty in the modeled hub-height wind resource. We first show how using a numerical ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in modeled wind speed is insufficient to fully capture the model deviation from real-world observations. Next, we train and validate a random forest to vertically extrapolate near-surface wind speed to hub height using the available short-term lidar data sets in the region. We then apply this model to vertically extrapolate the long-term near-surface buoy wind speed observations to hub height so that they can be directly compared to the long-term numerical data set. We find that the mean 21-year uncertainty in 140 m hourly average wind speed is slightly lower than 3 m s -1 (roughly 30m% of the mean observed wind speed) across the considered region. Atmospheric stability is strictly connected to the modeled wind speed uncertainty, with stable conditions associated with an uncertainty which is, on average, about 20 % larger than the overall mean uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2013

Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Prognosis: An Uncertainty Propagation Problem

The estimation of remaining useful life is significant in the context of prognostics and health monitoring, and the prediction of remaining useful life is essential for online operations and decision-making. However, it is challenging to accurately predict the remaining useful life in practical aerospace applications due to the presence of various uncertainties that affect prognostic calculations, and in turn, render the remaining useful life prediction uncertain. It is challenging to identify and characterize the various sources of uncertainty in prognosis, understand how each of these sources of uncertainty affect the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction, and thereby compute the overall uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. In order to achieve these goals, this paper proposes that the task of estimating the remaining useful life must be approached as an uncertainty propagation problem. In this context, uncertainty propagation methods which are available in the literature are reviewed, and their applicability to prognostics and health monitoring are discussed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of a Rotorcraft Conceptual Sizing Toolsuite

A computational framework to support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities for rotorcraft applications is presented using the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) conceptual sizing tool. A 90 passenger conceptual tiltrotor configuration was used for case demonstration in the modeling of uncertainties in NDARCs emission module. A non-intrusive forward propagation uncertainty quantification approach was applied to ensemble simulations using a Monte Carlo methodology with stratified Latin hypercube sampling. An off-the-shelf software, DAKOTA, which supports trade studies and design space exploration, including optimization, surrogate modeling and uncertainty analysis was used to address the research goals. A toolsuite was further developed incorporating DAKOTA with automated design processes and methods using function wrappers to execute program routines including support for data post-processing. Uncertainties in rotorcraft emissions modeling using the Average Temperature Response metric for a set mission profile were studied. It was shown that for the current study, using the base-line best estimate modeling parameters for the Average Temperature Response metric, NDARC under-estimates the effects of emissions when compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. A global sensitivity analysis was further undertaken to quantify the contribution of the various emission species on output sensitivity, hence uncertainty. The work demonstrates that the developed toolsuite is robust and will support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities in future rotorcraft design efforts.

Rotorcraft↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Approach for Uncertainty Quantification and Management of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Health

The increasing interest in low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations is bringing along safety concerns. Performance of small, low-cost UAVs drastically changes with type, size and controller of the vehicle. Their reliability is lower when compared to reliability of commercial aircrafts, and the availability of on-board sensors for health and state awareness is extremely limited due to their size and propulsion capabilities. Uncertainty plays a dominant role in such a scenario, where a variety of UAVs of different size, propulsion systems, dynamic performance and reliability enters the low-altitude airspace. Unexpected failures could have dangerous consequences for both equipment and humans within that same airspace. As a result, a number of research works and methodologies are being proposed in the area of UAV dynamic modeling, health and safety monitoring, but uncertainty quantification is rarely addressed. Thus, this paper pro- poses a perspective towards uncertainty quantification for autonomous systems, giving special emphasis to a UAV health monitoring application. A formal approach to classify uncertainty is presented; it is utilized to identify the uncertainty sources in UAVs health and operations, and then map uncertainty within a predictive process. To show the application of the methodology proposed here, the design of a model-based powertrain health monitoring algorithm for small-size UAVs is used as case study. The example illustrates how the uncertainty quantification approach can help the modeling strategy, as well as the assessment of diagnostic and prognostic performance.

Health Monitoring↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Natural Frequency using Conditional Assessment of Modeling and Modal Testing of Simpler Systems

The low pressure fuel pump inducer of the new Space Launch System RS25 core stage engine operates in a highly complex environment that substantially affects its modal characteristics. Some of the more important effects are fluid-added mass resulting from operation within a light liquid (Hydrogen), and the magnification of this effect due to tight tip clearance. Since higher order cavitation has been identified as a significant harmonic driver, knowledge of the natural frequency of potentially excitable modes is critical for safe operation, but this frequency cannot be measured during the severe operational environment. A comprehensive testing and analysis program has therefore been performed over the last four years to identify the nominal value and uncertainty of the frequency by modeling and testing four simpler structures which share some of the characteristics of the operational inducer. This testing was used to assess and adjust modeling techniques and excellent correlation was achieved. Identification of the uncertainty in the inducer frequency itself was still problematic, however. This difficulty led to an investigation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, and to the application of the relatively simple technique of Multi-Variate Normal conditional distributions to calculate the inducer natural frequency uncertainty. Assumptions on prior distributions of uncertainty of the fluid-added mass and tip clearance effect are initially applied to models of each of the simple structures and the inducer itself, and these uncertainties are propagated to generate natural frequencies using design of experiments. Simple response surfaces are then created from this data in order to calculate a Covariance Matrix relating all of these natural frequencies. Finally, the results from modal test of the simple structures are considered to be observations and used to calculate the conditional variance of the desired inducer frequencies. As this method is less rigorous than more complicated Bayesian methods reported in the literature, a conservative factor is applied to the result, but the resulting uncertainty is still significantly less than originally estimated and will greatly assist certification of the inducer for use in the engine.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Eigenvalues using Conditional Assessment of Models and Modal Test of Simpler Systems

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The effect of modeling dose uncertainty on low-boom community noise dose-response curves

In logistic dose-response modeling, failing to account for uncertainty in estimated doses can cause an artificial flattening or attenuation of the slope of the summary curve. In Lee et al. [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 147(4), pp. 2222-2234 (2020)], data from two NASA low-amplitude sonic boom community noise survey tests were modeled using a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression (MLR) statistical model that assumed there was no uncertainty in the noise dose estimates. However, in these community tests, the noise dose uncertainty was estimated by Page et al. [NASA/CR-2014-218180 and NASA/CR-2020-220589/Volume I] using a leave-one-out method. In the current work, a term was added to extend the Bayesian MLR model to account for the estimated noise dose uncertainty quantified in the Page et al. analyses. This uncertainty term was included in two ways, either as classical or as Berkson uncertainty, and yield similar results. When the uncertainty is accounted for in the Bayesian MLR model, the dose-response curves become 5-10% steeper, but the difference in the noise dose that elicits a 5% highly annoyed response is small (less than 1 dB). This result is encouraging for future X-59 community tests whose survey area will be sparsely populated with noise monitors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRS2022

Effective Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Aerosol Remote Sensing Over Ocean

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements can enable detailed characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties and improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere–ocean system. Theoretical pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties based on error propagation have been used to quantify retrieval performance and determine the quality of data products. However, standard error propagation techniques in high-dimensional retrievals may not always represent true retrieval errors well due to issues such as local minima and the nonlinear dependence of the forward model on the retrieved parameters near the solution. In this work, we analyze these theoretical uncertainty estimates and validate them using a flexible Monte Carlo approach. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on efficient neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification on both synthetic HARP2 (Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2) and AirHARP (airborne version of HARP2) datasets. In addition, for practical application of the uncertainty evaluation technique in operational data processing, we use the automatic differentiation method to calculate derivatives analytically based on the neural network models. Both the speed and accuracy associated with uncertainty quantification for MAP retrievals are addressed in this study. Pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties are further evaluated for the real AirHARP field campaign data. The uncertainty quantification methods and results can be used to evaluate the quality of data products, as well as guide MAP algorithm development for current and future satellite systems such as NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission.

PACE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Improvement in the NASA Glenn Research Center 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

Within the past decade, a measurement uncertainty analysis (MUA) team was assembled at the NASA Glenn Research Center to assist the wind tunnel characterization team with quantification of uncertainty estimates for variables of interest in wind tunnels and test cells across the center. The initial analysis performed by the team was conducted on the 8- by 6- Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel using results from the 1996/97 full calibration test entry. These MUA results were published in 2016 which included recommendations for methods to improve the uncertainty estimates for various variables of interest, such as changes to regression models, tunnel operation philosophy, and instrumentation choices. The wind tunnel characterization team utilized the proposed methods in 2019 during a full characterization test entry. Following publication of the 2019 test section characterization results, the MUA team pursued an update to the uncertainty estimates for the facility, which validated previous recommendations and revealed significantly reduced systematic uncertainties across most variables of interest. Inclusion of within-test repeat points in the 2019 test entry allowed for higher fidelity estimates of random uncertainty to be generated, as well. This collaboration between the facility, wind tunnel characterization, and MUA teams serves as an example of the data quality benefits that can be achieved through rigorous analysis of the sources of uncertainty in a ground-test facility.

Uncertainty↗