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At least 235 records · Page 13

Assessment of Error in Synoptic-Scale Diagnostics Derived from Wind Profiler and Radiosonde Network Data

A topic of current practical interest is the accurate characterization of the synoptic-scale atmospheric state from wind profiler and radiosonde network observations. We have examined several related and commonly applied objective analysis techniques for performing this characterization and considered their associated level of uncertainty both from a theoretical and a practical standpoint. A case study is presented where two wind profiler triangles with nearly identical centroids and no common vertices produced strikingly different results during a 43-h period. We conclude that the uncertainty in objectively analyzed quantities can easily be as large as the expected synoptic-scale signal. In order to quantify the statistical precision of the algorithms, we conducted a realistic observing system simulation experiment using output from a mesoscale model. A simple parameterization for estimating the uncertainty in horizontal gradient quantities in terms of known errors in the objectively analyzed wind components and temperature is developed from these results.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

A Satellite-based Assessment of Trans-Pacific Transport of Pollution Aerosol

It has been well documented that pollution aerosol and dust from East Asia can transport across the North Pacific basin, reaching North America and beyond. Such intercontinental transport extends the impact of aerosols for climate change, air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and ocean biology from local and regional scales to hemispheric and global scales. Long term, measurement-based studies are necessary to adequately assess the implications of these wider impacts. A satellite-based assessment can augment intensive field campaigns by expanding temporal and spatial scales and also serve as constraints for model simulations. Satellite imagers have been providing a wealth of evidence for the intercontinental transport of aerosols for more than two decades. Quantitative assessments, however, became feasible only recently as a result of the much improved measurement accuracy and enhanced new capabilities of satellite sensors. In this study, we generated a 4-year (2002 to 2005) climatology of optical depth for pollution aerosol (defined as a mixture of aerosols from urbanlindustrial pollution and biomass burning in this study) over the North Pacific from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) observations of fine- and coarse-mode aerosol optical depths. The pollution aerosol mass loading and fluxes were then calculated using measurements of the dependence of aerosol mass extinction efficiency on relative humidity and of aerosol vertical distributions from field campaigns and available satellite observations in the region. We estimated that about 18 Tg/year pollution aerosol is exported from East Asia to the northwestern Pacific Ocean, of which about 25% reaches the west coast of North America. The pollution fluxes are largest in spring and smallest in summer. For the period we have examined the strongest export and import of pollution particulates occurred in 2003, due largely to record intense Eurasia wildfires in spring and summer. The overall uncertainty of pollution fluxes is estimated at about 80%. A reduction of uncertainty can be achieved with a better characterization of pollution aerosol through integrating emerging A-Train measurements. Simulations by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) models agree quite well with the satellite-based estimates of annual and latitudeintegrated fluxes, with larger model-satellite differences in latitudinal variations of fluxes.

Yu, Hongbin↗

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder HCl Measurements

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite has provided daily global HCl profiles since August 2004. We provide a characterization of the resolution, random and systematic uncertainties, and known issues for the version 2.2 MLS HCl data. The MLS sampling allows for comparisons with many (~1500 to more than 3000) closely matched profiles from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). These data sets provide HCl latitudinal distributions that are, overall, very similar to those from (coincident) MLS profiles, although there are some discrepancies in the upper stratosphere between the MLS and HALOE gradients. As found in previous work, MLS and ACE HCl profiles agree very well (within approximately 5%, on average), but the MLS HCl abundances are generally larger (by 10-20%) than HALOE HCl. The bias versus HALOE is unlikely to arise mostly from MLS, as a similar systematic bias (of order 15%) is not observed between average MLS and balloon-borne measurements of HCl, obtained over Fort Sumner, New Mexico, in 2004 and 2005. At the largest pressure (147 hPa) for MLS HCl, a high bias (approximately 0.2 ppbv) is apparent in analyses of low to midlatitude data versus in situ aircraft chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) HCl measurements from the Aura Validation Experiment (AVE) campaigns in 2004, 2005, and 2006; this bias is also observed in comparisons of MLS and aircraftHCl/O3 correlations. Good agreement between MLS and CIMS HCl is obtained at 100 to 68 hPa. The recommended pressure range for MLS HCl is from 100 to 0.15 hPa.

Earth Observing System (EOS)↗

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

Follow on Researches for X-56A Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Progress Report)

A lot of composite materials are used for the modern aircraft to reduce its weight. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of X-56A aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes is based on the flutter analysis of X-56A aircraft. It should be noted that for all three Mach number cases rigid body modes and mode numbers seven and nine are participated 89.1 92.4 % of the first flutter mode. Modal participation of the rigid body mode and mode numbers seven and nine for the second flutter mode are 94.6 96.4%. Rigid body mode and the first two anti-symmetric modes, eighth and tenth modes, are participated 93.2 94.6% of the third flutter mode. Therefore, rigid body modes and the first four flexible modes of X-56A aircraft are the primary modes during the model tuning procedure. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the X-56A aircraft is to obtain in this study. The structural dynamics finite element model of X-56A aircraft is improved using the parallelized big-bang big-crunch algorithm together with a hybrid optimization technique.

Structural Dynamic Model Tuning↗

Follow on Research for Multi-Utility Technology Test Bed Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (FY13 Progress Report)

Modern aircraft employ a significant fraction of their weight in composite materials to reduce weight and improve performance. Aircraft aeroservoelastic models are typically characterized by significant levels of model parameter uncertainty due to the composite manufacturing process. Small modeling errors in the finite element model will eventually induce errors in the structural flexibility and mass, thus propagating into unpredictable errors in the unsteady aerodynamics and the control law design. One of the primary objectives of Multi Utility Technology Test-bed (MUTT) aircraft is the flight demonstration of active flutter suppression, and therefore in this study, the identification of the primary and secondary modes for the structural model tuning based on the flutter analysis of MUTT aircraft. The ground vibration test-validated structural dynamic finite element model of the MUTT aircraft is created in this study. The structural dynamic finite element model of MUTT aircraft is improved using the in-house Multi-disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization tool. In this study, two different weight configurations of MUTT aircraft have been improved simultaneously in a single model tuning procedure.

multi-utility technology test bed aircraft↗

Transboundary sky waters in the Middle East: definition, challenges, and opportunities

Transboundary water disputes in the Middle East have increased in recent years due to growing constraints on water resources. Efforts to harvest more water from the atmosphere through weather intervention projects have exacerbated existing conflicts. Here, we propose that atmospheric water vapor should be recognized as a transboundary resource that involves substantial uncertainty. As such, this note serves as a starting point for characterizing various components of this concept, the knowledge gaps, and a roadmap to address those gaps. These efforts would reduce uncertainties and help integrate the sky water into transboundary water negotiations and collaborative understanding.

Amin Dezfuli↗

Reinforcement Learning for Spacecraft Navigation & Environment Characterization in the Planar-Restricted Two-Body Problem

During mission planning and execution, spacecraft operators must balance data collection and downlink, systems constraints, human factors, and navigation. As missions become increasingly complex and ambitious, these factors become more intricately entwined and conflicted. For example, a spacecraft’s position must be known accurately in order to point to and image a target. Large position errors may cause missed observations or require additional scanning that increases operations complexity and data volume. Some observations require imaging from specific relative geometries which adds orbit control and timing considerations. Adjusting the orbit may allow for optimal observability of environmental parameters and/or enable more efficient sensor coverage, but maneuver execution error adds uncertainty to the current state which impacts both characterization and coverage objectives.

Navigation↗

Impacts of Aerosol and Cloud Variability on Satellite-Derived All-skies Direct Aerosol Radiative Effects (DARE) over the North and Southeast Atlantic

The Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Shortwave (SW) Direct Aerosol Radiative Effect (DARE) in all-sky conditions (i.e., aerosols in clear skies and aerosols above and below all types of clouds) is the global change in upwelling radiative flux due to aerosols. It is one of the strongest indicators of global climate change due to aerosols. SW DARE at TOA depends on the Earth’s surface albedo, cloud fraction, cloud optical properties, and aerosol optical properties, which are all challenging to accurately characterize from space. The overarching goals of our project are to provide state-of-the-art observational all-sky TOA SW DARE, along with guidance on which aerosol and/or cloud properties are the most important to measure, and at which spatio-temporal scales, for accurate DARE observations. We compute all-sky DARE based on state-of-the-art cloud and aerosol retrieval algorithms from CALIOP (Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer) satellite sensors, as well as aerosol intensive properties from MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) simulations over three specific regions of the Atlantic Ocean from 2012 to 2016. In this symposium, we present a characterization of the cloud and aerosol optical and physical properties and the observational TOA SW DARE along three individual satellite tracks in the Southeast Atlantic region -- on September 18 and 20, 2016 and August 13, 2017. We then quantify the impact of assuming homogeneous cloud or aerosol fields in space-based TOA SW DARE calculations. And, finally, the resulting space-based all-skies aerosol vertical distribution and DARE calculations are evaluated using remote sensing observations from coincident suborbital flights from the NASA ORACLES (the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS, ORACLES field campaign) field campaign. The NASA Atmospheric Observing System (AOS) mission addresses the NASA Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) designated observables and proposes, as one of its aerosol objectives, to reduce uncertainties in estimates of global mean all-sky SW DARE at TOA. Well characterizing clouds, aerosol vertical distributions, aerosol types and associated all-skies DARE over the Atlantic Ocean will inform the AOS community on where, when, how, and how often the satellite retrievals should be performed to estimate DARE and reduce all-skies DARE uncertainties most accurately. These comprehensive characterizations will also identify the key regions and times when the AOS (or other ACCP-related) suborbital missions should be conducted to evaluate and improve the AOS space-based observations and retrievals.

aerosol↗

The NASA Radiation Health Program

The NASA program for determining the impact of cosmic radiation on health is described in terms of its long-term goal of reducing the uncertainty of radiation-model prediction to +/- 25 percent by 2010. The Space Radiation Health Program (SRHP) is intended to address fundamental issues for establishing a scientific basis for human radiation protection: (1) the prediction of the probability of biological effects from radiation; (2) the reduction of uncertainty in predicted highly charged energetic particles; and (3) the characterization of background flux from Galactic cosmic rays. Another key objective is to develop related technologies for ground- and space-based solar monitoring to predict events involving solar energetic particles. Although substantial uncertainties are involved in the prediction of such events, the SRHP is essential for determining crucial variables related to launching mass and humans into orbit.

Nicogossian, A. E.↗

A new design approach to achieve a minimum impulse limit cycle in the presence of significant measurement uncertainties

A new design was developed for the Space Shuttle Transition Phase Digital Autopilot to reduce the impact of large measurement uncertainties in the rate signal during attitude control. The signal source, which was dictated by early computer constraints, is characterized by large quantization, noise, bias, and transport lag which produce a measurement uncertainty larger than the minimum impulse rate change. To ensure convergence to a minimum impulse limit cycle, the design employed bias and transport lag compensation and a switching logic with hysteresis, rate deadzone, and 'walking' switching line. The design background, the rate measurement uncertainties, and the design solution are documented.

Martin, M. W.↗

Use of CFD in the Design of the 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel Characterization Array

At the 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center, a future full test section characterization generated an ideal opportunity to design and build new characterization hardware to improve the understanding of the flow field, including flow quality, uniformity, and uncertainty in primary variables of interest. An array of flow sensing probes, referred to as the Characterization Array, was designed and built to replace 1960’s-era test section characterization hardware. Many references exist to guide wind tunnel characterization practitioners in the design of new hardware to properly measure various aspects of the flow within their wind tunnel facilities. Although reliable sources of information, these references tend to be over 30 years old and are not exhaustive. In scenarios where design decisions needed to be validated, computational simulations of the flow field around the characterization hardware were used. Decisions regarding probe location, probe spacing, and performance of various probes were justified using computational fluid dynamic simulations and rules-of-thumb from the legacy resources available in literature. This paper is intended to serve as an example of the benefits from integrating CFD into the design of wind tunnel hardware, particularly hardware for wind tunnel characterization.

CFD↗

Use of CFD in the Design of the 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel Characterization Array

At the 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center, a future full test section characterization generated an ideal opportunity to design and build new characterization hardware to improve the understanding of the flow field, including flow quality, uniformity, and uncertainty in primary variables of interest. An array of flow sensing probes, referred to as the Characterization Array, was designed and built to replace 1960’s-era test section characterization hardware. Many references exist to guide wind tunnel characterization practitioners in the design of new hardware to properly measure various aspects of the flow within their wind tunnel facilities. Although reliable sources of information, these references tend to be over 30 years old and are not exhaustive. In scenarios where design decisions needed to be validated, computational simulations of the flow field around the characterization hardware were used. Decisions regarding probe location, probe spacing, and performance of various probes were justified using computational fluid dynamic simulations and rules-of-thumb from the legacy resources available in literature. This paper is intended to serve as an example of the benefits from integrating CFD into the design of wind tunnel hardware, particularly hardware for wind tunnel characterization.

CFD↗

Electrochemical characterization of InP structures

Electrochemical (EC) techniques represent a simple and yet accurate method to characterize InP and related materials structures. With EC techniques, uncertainties in the measurements arising from factors such as surface effects, the composition and thickness of a front dead layer, the contacts, etc., can be significantly reduced when both a suitable electrolyte is used and the measuring conditions are carefully selected. In this work, the use of photoelectrochemical techniques with InP structures is reported. The work focuses on both the characterization and the optimization of structures grown by thermal diffusion and by epitaxial methods. Characterization of the structures is done by studying the variation in the density of surface states, number of defects, and net majority carrier concentration as a function of material removed. A step-by-step optimization process of n(sup +)p and p(sup+)n InP structures is also described. This involves the passivation and subsequent removal of damaged layers in order to extract the performance parameters of solar cells fabricated with these structures.

Faur, Maria↗

Construction of Polarimetric Radar-Based Reference Rain Maps for the Iowa Flood Studies Campaign

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign was conducted in central and northeastern Iowa during the months of April-June, 2013. Specific science objectives for IFloodS included quantification of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based estimates of precipitation, 4-D characterization of precipitation physical processes and associated parameters (e.g., size distributions, water contents, types, structure etc.), assessment of the impact of precipitation estimation uncertainty and physical processes on hydrologic predictive skill, and refinement of field observations and data analysis approaches as they pertain to future GPM integrated hydrologic validation and related field studies. In addition to field campaign archival of raw and processed satellite data (including precipitation products), key ground-based platforms such as the NASA NPOL S-band and D3R Ka/Ku-band dual-polarimetric radars, University of Iowa X-band dual-polarimetric radars, a large network of paired rain gauge platforms, and a large network of 2D Video and Parsivel disdrometers were deployed. In something of a canonical approach, the radar (NPOL in particular), gauge and disdrometer observational assets were deployed to create a consistent high-quality distributed (time and space sampling) radar-based ground "reference" rainfall dataset, with known uncertainties, that could be used for assessing the satellite-based precipitation products at a range of space/time scales. Subsequently, the impact of uncertainties in the satellite products could be evaluated relative to the ground-benchmark in coupled weather, land-surface and distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks as related to flood prediction. Relative to establishing the ground-based "benchmark", numerous avenues were pursued in the making and verification of IFloodS "reference" dual-polarimetric radar-based rain maps, and this study documents the process and results as they pertain specifically to efforts using the NPOL radar dataset. The initial portions of the "process" involved dual-polarimetric quality control procedures which employed standard phase and correlation-based approaches to removal of clutter and non-meteorological echo. Calculation of a scale-adaptive KDP was accomplished using the method of Wang and Chandrasekar (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.). A dual-polarimetric blockage algorithm based on Lang et al. (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.) was then implemented to correct radar reflectivity and differential reflectivity at low elevation angles. Next, hydrometeor identification algorithms were run to identify liquid and ice hydrometeors. After the quality control and data preparation steps were completed several different dual-polarimetric rain estimation algorithms were employed to estimate rainfall rates using rainfall scans collected approximately every two to three minutes throughout the campaign. These algorithms included a polarimetrically-tuned Z-R algorithm that adjusts for drop oscillations (via Bringi et al., 2004, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.), and several different hybrid polarimetric variable approaches, including one that made use of parameters tuned to IFloodS 2D Video Disdrometer measurements. Finally, a hybrid scan algorithm was designed to merge the rain rate estimates from multiple low level elevation angle scans (where blockages could not be appropriately corrected) in order to create individual low-level rain maps. Individual rain maps at each time step were subsequently accumulated over multiple time scales for comparison to gauge network data. The comparison results and overall error character depended strongly on rain event type, polarimetric estimator applied, and range from the radar. We will present the outcome of these comparisons and their impact on constructing composited "reference" rainfall maps at select time and space scales.

Radar↗

Feedback system design with an uncertain plant

A method is developed to design a fixed-parameter compensator for a linear, time-invariant, SISO (single-input single-output) plant model characterized by significant structured, as well as unstructured, uncertainty. The controller minimizes the H(infinity) norm of the worst-case sensitivity function over the operating band and the resulting feedback system exhibits robust stability and robust performance. It is conjectured that such a robust nonadaptive control design technique can be used on-line in an adaptive control system.

Milich, D.↗

Feedback system design with an uncertain plant

A method is developed to design a fixed-parameter compensator for a linear, time-invariant, SISO (single-output single-output) plant model characterized by significant structured, as well as unstructured, uncertainty. The controller minimizes the H(infinity) norm of the worst-case sensitivity function over the operating band and the resulting feedback system exhibits robust stability and robust performance. It is conjectured that such a robust nonadaptive control design technique can be used on-line in an adaptive control system.

Milich, D.↗

A stochastic damage model for the rupture prediction of a multi-phase solid. I - Parametric studies. II - Statistical approach

A stochastic damage model for predicting the rupture of a brittle multiphase material is developed, based on the microcrack-macrocrack interaction. The model, which incorporates uncertainties in locations, orientations, and numbers of microcracks, characterizes damage by microcracking and fracture by macrocracking. A parametric study is carried out to investigate the change of the stress intensity at the macrocrack tip by the configuration of microcracks. The inherent statistical distribution of the fracture toughness arising from the intrinsic random nature of microcracks is explored using a statistical approach. For this purpose, a computer simulation model is introduced, which incorporates a statistical characterization of geometrical parameters of a random microcrack array.

Lua, Yuan J.↗