Results for “uncertainty distribution” — Page 13

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Turboprop Transport Aircraft Modeling for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration Project

The objective of this study is to establish models for state of the art, representative regional non-electrified turboprop configurations in the 19 to 50 passenger capability range and assess performance impacts from advanced aircraft technologies. Two of these models will serve as reference baseline configurations for comparison to electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) demonstrator concepts for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project. The other two non-electrified configurations will primarily assess the impacts of advanced technologies on fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. This paper details an aircraft synthesis and performance analysis approach using the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) which is used to establish baseline performance capabilities, calibrate airplane and engine models using published manufacturer data and conduct technology sensitivity studies. Advanced technologies are selected from the categories of propulsion, aerodynamics, and flight systems. A GASP-Monte Carlo simulation framework for uncertainty propagation is used to obtain performance distributions of the expected fuel burn, weight reduction and CO₂ emissions reductions from advanced aircraft technologies. Significant fuel burn savings from application of aerodynamics and propulsion technologies was observed.

Dahlia D.V. Pham↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CLARREO Pathfinder as a SI-traceable Reference for Satellite Intercalibration

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder (CPF) consists of an Earthviewing reflected solar (RS) spectrometer that will measure the Earth-reflected solar radiation from International Space Station with an SI-traceable radiometric uncertainty of 0.3% (1-sigma). The high-accuracy CPF measurements will provide an in-orbit reference for intercalibrating other spaceflight RS instruments. The CPF intercalibration team has been tasked to develop a state-of-the-art approach to calibrate the shortwave channel (300-5000 nm) of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and the reflective solar bands (RSB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument, both onboard the NOAA-20 satellite, against the CPF benchmark measurements. The aimed intercalibration methodology uncertainty for both the target instruments is also 0.3%. To meet this stringent intercalibration accuracy, the CPF team has developed methods for mitigating the impacts of spatial, spectral, and angular differences between the intercalibration footprints from the CPF and target instruments. To further alleviate uncertainty, the CPF team will employ Polarization Distribution Models (PDMs) to characterize the polarization state of the Earth-reflected radiance as a function of the intercalibration footprint scene type, solar and viewing geometry, and wavelength. The PDMs will assist in identifying low-polarized scene radiances for meticulously intercalibrating the polarization sensitive VIIRS instrument against the significantly-less polarization-sensitive CPF instrument. This paper will highlight the CPF mission overview, the details of the CPF intercalibration approach, and additional outcomes of the CPF intercalibration studies that may benefit the broader remote sensing community.community.

Hyperspectral↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Bimodal Ice Shapes on Full-Chord and Hybrid CRM Midspan Models

An ice shape database has been created to document ice accretions on a full-chord length and hybrid versions of a 65 percent scale size of the mid-span section of the Common Research Model resulting from an exposure to a Super-cooled Large Drop (SLD) icing cloud with a bimodal drop size distribution. The ice shapes created were documented with photographs, laser scanned surface measurements over a section of the model span, and measurement of the ice mass over the same section of each ice accretion. Drop distribution effects were evaluated by using the same IRT icing conditions except with either monomodal or bimodal drop distributions. Ice shapes resulting from the bimodal distribution as well as from monomodal distributions of identical cloud droplet Median Volume Diameter (MVD) were obtained and compared. Results indicated that the ice shapes resulting from the monomodal and bimodal drop size distributions have similar 2D Maximum Combined Cross Section, or MCCS, ice shape around the model leading edge region and equivalent ice mass measurement per unit span to within the IRT SLD cloud calibration uncertainty, as expected with this approach, but the bimodal distributions have distinctly larger ice feathers that extended further back on the chord of the model. For most test conditions, the overall size and shape of the main ice accretions compared well between the full-chord and hybrid models.

Icing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Bimodal Ice Shapes on Full-Chord and Hybrid CRM Midspan Models

An ice shape database has been created to document ice accretions on a full-chord length and hybrid versions of a 65 percent scale size of the mid-span section of the Common Research Model resulting from an exposure to a Super-cooled Large Drop (SLD) icing cloud with a bimodal drop size distribution. The ice shapes created were documented with photographs, laser scanned surface measurements over a section of the model span, and measurement of the ice mass over the same section of each ice accretion. Drop distribution effects were evaluated by using the same IRT icing conditions except with either monomodal or bimodal drop distributions. Ice shapes resulting from the bimodal distribution as well as from monomodal distributions of identical cloud droplet Median Volume Diameter (MVD) were obtained and compared. Results indicated that the ice shapes resulting from the monomodal and bimodal drop size distributions have similar 2D Maximum Combined Cross Section, or MCCS, ice shape around the model leading edge region and equivalent ice mass measurement per unit span to within the IRT SLD cloud calibration uncertainty, as expected with this approach, but the bimodal distributions have distinctly larger ice feathers that extended further back on the chord of the model. For most test conditions, the overall size and shape of the main ice accretions compared well between the full-chord and hybrid models

Icing , Simulation, Validation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Bimodal Ice Shapes on Full-Chord and Hybrid CRM Midspan Models

An ice shape database has been created to document ice accretions on a full-chord length and hybrid versions of a 65 percent scale size of the mid-span section of the Common Research Model resulting from an exposure to a Super-cooled Large Drop (SLD) icing cloud with a bimodal drop size distribution. The ice shapes created were documented with photographs, laser scanned surface measurements over a section of the model span, and measurement of the ice mass over the same section of each ice accretion. Drop distribution effects were evaluated by using the same IRT icing conditions except with either monomodal or bimodal drop distributions. Ice shapes resulting from the bimodal distribution as well as from monomodal distributions of identical cloud droplet Median Volume Diameter (MVD) were obtained and compared. Results indicated that the ice shapes resulting from the monomodal and bimodal drop size distributions have similar 2D Maximum Combined Cross Section, or MCCS, ice shape around the model leading edge region and equivalent ice mass measurement per unit span to within the IRT SLD cloud calibration uncertainty, as expected with this approach, but the bimodal distributions have distinctly larger ice feathers that extended further back on the chord of the model. For most test conditions, the overall size and shape of the main ice accretions compared well between the full-chord and hybrid models.

Icing↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions

Meaningful climate predictions should be accompanied by the corresponding uncertainty range. Common methods for estimating the uncertainty range are based on the spread of ensemble predictions. However, a simulation ensemble is not necessarily a proper sample of the real distribution of the climate, and therefore, the ensemble spread cannot be interpreted as the actual uncertainty. We propose a new method that links between the ensemble spread and the uncertainty without relying on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the ensemble predictions. The method is tested using CMIP5 1981-2010 decadal predictions and is shown to outperform other common methods.

Strobach, Ehud↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at NASA-Lewis, and consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads, (2) probabilistic finite element analysis, (3) probabilistic material behavior, (4) assessment of reliability and risk, and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Attention is given to quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on High Pressure Fuel Turbopump blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine; the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; evaluation of the failure probability; reliability and risk-cost assessment; and an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SIRIUS: Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems

This paper presents the Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems (SIRIUS), a research framework for simulation and analysis of future conceptual Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. SIRIUS is being developed under the auspices of the NASA Air Traffic Management eXploration project, UAM subproject (ATM-X UAM). SIRIUS provides an intuitive, highly configurable graphical user interface to design complex traffic scenarios and airspace configurations representative of conceptual UAM operations. Aircraft simulated with SIRIUS can be equipped with flight-tested capabilities for detect and avoid (DAA), geofencing, distributed merging and spacing, path conformance, and path planning while executing time-constrained, 4D trajectories generated by a UAM ground operations system. Central to the design of the SIRIUS simulation framework is the capability to evaluate the integration and interoperability of ground-based separation services (e.g., strategic separation) with extended DAA functionality (e.g., path monitoring, separation provision, merging and spacing, etc.) The simulation environment also supports modelling of wind, navigation, and sensor uncertainties, as well as communication delays. SIRIUS enables distributed simulation of large-scale scenarios. An interactive graphical analysis capability helps isolate, visualize, and compare relevant vehicle state data and widely used measures of performance metrics across multiple scenarios.

Andrew Peters↗

NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

NASA NTRS1995

Uncertainties for two-dimensional models of solar rotation from helioseismic eigenfrequency splitting

Observed solar p-mode frequency splittings can be used to estimate angular velocity as a function of position in the solar interior. Formal uncertainties of such estimates depend on the method of estimation (e.g., least-squares), the distribution of errors in the observations, and the parameterization imposed on the angular velocity. We obtain lower bounds on the uncertainties that do not depend on the method of estimation; the bounds depend on an assumed parameterization, but the fact that they are lower bounds for the 'true' uncertainty does not. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals for estimates of the angular velocity from 1986 Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) data, based on a 3659 element tensor-product cubic-spline parameterization, are everywhere wider than 120 nHz, and exceed 60,000 nHz near the core. When compared with estimates of the solar rotation, these bounds reveal that useful inferences based on pointwise estimates of the angular velocity using 1986 BBSO splitting data are not feasible over most of the Sun's volume. The discouraging size of the uncertainties is due principally to the fact that helioseismic measurements are insensitive to changes in the angular velocity at individual points, so estimates of point values based on splittings are extremely uncertain. Functionals that measure distributed 'smooth' properties are, in general, better constrained than estimates of the rotation at a point. For example, the uncertainties in estimated differences of average rotation between adjacent blocks of about 0.001 solar volumes across the base of the convective zone are much smaller, and one of several estimated differences we compute appears significant at the 95% level.

Genovese, Christopher R.↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Hyperspectral Inversion Framework for Estimating Absorbing Inherent Optical Properties and Biogeochemical Parameters in Inland and Coastal Waters

The simultaneous remote estimation of biogeochemical parameters (BPs) and inherent optical properties (IOPs) from hyperspectral satellite imagery of globally distributed optically distinct inland and coastal waters is a complex, unsolved, non-unique inverse problem. To tackle this problem, we leverage a machine-learning model termed Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). MDNs outperform operational algorithms by calculating the covariance between the simultaneously estimated products. We train the MDNs on a large ( N = 8237) dataset of co-aligned, in situ measured, hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R rs ), BPs, and absorbing IOPs from globally representative optically distinct inland and coastal waters. The estimated IOPs include absorption due to phytoplankton (a ph ), chromophoric dissolved organic matter (a cdom ), and non-algal particles (a nap ). The estimated BPs include chlorophyll-a, total suspended solids, and phycocyanin (PC). MDNs dramatically reduce uncertainty in the retrievals, relative to operational algorithms, when using a 50/50 dataset split, where the MDNs are trained on a randomly selected half of the in situ dataset and validated on the other half. Our model is shown to have higher, or equivalent, generalization performance than the calculated operational algorithms available for all BPs and IOPs (except PC) via a leave-one-out cross-validation assessment. The MDNs are sensitive to uncertainties in the hyperspectral satellite R rs , resulting from instrument noise and atmospheric correction; there is a difference of ~37.4–62.8% (using median symmetric accuracy) between the MDNs’ estimates derived from co-located satellite-derived R rs and in situ R rs . Of the IOPs, a cdom and a nap are less sensitive to uncertainties in hyperspectral satellite imagery relative to a ph , with remote estimates of a ph exhibiting incorrect spectral shape and magnitude relative to in situ measured IOPs. Despite the uncertainties in satellite derived R rs , the spatial distributions of BPs and IOPs in MDN-derived product maps of Lake Erie and the Curonian Lagoon, based on imagery taken with the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) and PRecursore Iper-Spettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), are confirmed via co-aligned in situ measurements and agree with the literature’s understanding of these well-studied regions. The consistency and accuracy of the model on HICO and PRISMA imagery, despite radiometric uncertainties, demonstrate its applicability to future hyperspectral missions, such as the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, where the simultaneous estimation model will serve as a key part of phytoplankton community composition analysis.

Ryan E. O'Shea↗

NASA NTRS1994

The latitudinal distribution of ozone to 35 km altitude from ECC ozonesonde observations, 1982-1990

Electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozone-sonde observations, made in recent years at ten stations whose locations range from the Arctic to Antarctica, have yielded a self-consistent ozone data base from which mean seasonal and annual latitudinal ozone vertical distributions to 35 km have been derived. Ozone measurement uncertainties are estimated, and results are presented in the Bass-Paur (1985) ozone absorption coefficient scale adopted for use with Dobson ozone spectrophotometers January 1, 1992. The data should be useful for comparison with model calculations of the global distribution of atmospheric ozone, for serving as apriori statistical information in deriving ozone vertical distributions from satellite and Umkehr observations, and for improving the satellite and Umkehr ozone inversion algorithms. Attention is drawn to similar results based on a less comprehensive data set published in Ozone in the Atmosphere, Proceedings of the 1988 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium where errors in data tabulations occurred for three of the stations due to inadvertent transposition of ozone partial pressure and air temperature values.

Komhyr, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Densities and vibrational distribution of H(3+) in the Jovian auroral ionosphere

The assumption that H(3+) is in LTE in the region of the Jovian ionosphere from which the emissions originate is tested by calculating the vibrational distribution of H(3+) over the altitude range of 350 to 1500 km above the methane cloud tops. A model of the Jovian auroral ionosphere is constructed in which the neutral temperatures are enhanced over those of the midlatitude ionosphere, as suggested by observations and models of the auroral region. The energy and energy flux were found to be less than those involved in the production of the UV aurora. A computation of the densities and vibrational distribution shows that the distribution of the six lowest states of H(3+) can be determined fairly well in spite of uncertainties in the atomic and molecular data. The computed altitude profiles and vibrational distributions of H(3+) and H2 are consistent with the observations of IR emission in the 2- and 4-micron regions.

Kim, Y. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (3) evaluation of the failure probability; (4) reliability and risk-cost assessment, and (5) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic structural analysis methods of hot engine structures

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot engine structures at Lewis Research Center is presented. Three elements of the research program are: (1) composite load spectra methodology; (2) probabilistic structural analysis methodology; and (3) probabilistic structural analysis application. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) turbine blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the space shuttle main engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; and (3) evaluation of the failure probability. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability of hot engine structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic/reliability framework.

Chamis, C. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗