Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “wave climate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

SWIRP (Submm-Wave and Long Wave InfraRed Polarimeter); Development and Characterization of a Sub-Mm Polarimeter for Ice Cloud Investigations

A major source of uncertainty in climate models is the presence, shape and distribution of ice particles in the uppermost layers of the clouds. The effects of this component are poorly constrained, turning ice particles into an almost-free variable in many climate models.NASA-GSFC is developing a new instrument aimed at measuring the size and shape of ice particles. The instrument consists of two sub-mm polarimeters (at 220 and 670 GHz) coupled with a long-wave infrared polarimeter at 10 micron. Each polarimeter has identical V-pol and H-pol channels; the axes of polarization are defined geometrically by the orientation of the waveguide elements, and the purity has been measured in the lab. The instrument is configured as a conical scanner, suitable for deployment as a payload on a small satellite or on a high-altitude sub-orbital platform. From a 400 km orbit, the instrument has a 3dB spatial resolution of 20 (10) km at 220 (670) GHz and a swath of 600 km over 180 degrees of view.The BAPTA (Bearing And Power Transfer Assembly) carries heritage from the SSMIS design, now in its 22nd year of on-orbit operation, but with a much reduced SWaP (Size Weight and Power) footprint, suitable for a small satellite.The main components of the instrument have been fabricated and are undergoing final testing prior to their integration as a single unit. The sub-mm channels have dedicated secondary reflectors which illuminate a shared primary reflector. The receiving units are placed behind the focal point of the optical arrangement, so that all beams equally illuminate the primary reflector and are almost co-located on the ground (within a single 220 GHz footprint). Primary and secondary beam patterns have been measured and verified to match the as-designed expectations. A Zytex (TM) window is deployed to protect the secondary reflectors and the feed horns from debris and other contaminants, and to reduce the heat load from the active (hot) IR calibration unit. The insertion loss of Zytex has been measured and is accounted in the calibration equation of the sub-mm channels.The radiometric performance of the sub-mm receivers has been characterized in the lab and under operational conditions of temperature and pressure.This paper discusses the design constraints on the sub-mm components, details of the scientific goals and their flowdown, and describes the characterization of the polarimeters. Options to optimize the layout and distribution of the masses within the assembly, with the goal of making the instrument even more compact and fully-compatible with cubesat-class satellites will be presented.

De Amici, G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
NASA NTRS2013

Net Influence of an Internally Generated Guasi-biennial Oscillation on Modelled Stratospheric Climate and Chemistry

A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2020

CubeSat Measures World's First Ice Cloud Map to Support Climate Research

Virginia Diodes, Inc. received NASA SBIR Awards to fund research and development for a lesser developed region of the electromagnetic spectrum—terahertz waves. Their work led to funding from NASA ESTO, and the resulting CubeSat (named IceCube) captured the world’s first ice cloud map, which will contribute to our understanding of Earth’s climate

Light, Bailey↗
NASA NTRS2021

Relationship between circum-Arctic atmospheric wave patterns and large-scale wildfires in boreal summer

Long-term assessment of severe wildfires and associated air pollution and related climate patterns in and around the Arctic is essential for assessing healthy human life status. To examine the relationships, we analyzed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our investigation based on this state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data reveals that 13 out of the 20 months with the highest PM2.5 (corresponding to the highly elevated organic carbon in the particulate organic matter [POM] form) monthly mean mass concentration over the Arctic for 2003–2017 were all in summer (July and August), during which POM of ⩾0.5 μg/cu. m and PM2.5 were positively correlated. This correlation suggests that high PM2.5 in the Arctic is linked to large wildfire contributions and characterized by significant anticyclonic anomalies (i.e. clockwise atmospheric circulation) with anomalous surface warmth and drier conditions over Siberia and subpolar North America, in addition to Europe. A similar climate pattern was also identified through an independent regression analysis for the July and August mean data between the same atmospheric variables and the sign-reversed Scandinavian pattern index. We named this pattern of recent atmospheric circulation anomalies the circum-Arctic wave (CAW) pattern as a manifestation of eastward group-velocity propagation of stationary Rossby waves (i.e. large-scale atmospheric waves). The CAW induces concomitant development of warm anticyclonic anomalies over Europe, Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, as observed in late June 2019. Surprisingly, the extended regression analysis of the 1980–2017 period revealed that the CAW pattern was not prominent before 2003. Understanding the CAW pattern under future climate change and global warming would lead to better prediction of co-occurrences of European heatwaves and large-scale wildfires with air pollution over Siberia, Alaska, and Canada in and around the Arctic in summer.

wildfire↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examination of Humidity and Ice Supersaturation Profiles Over West Antarctica Using Ground-Based G-Band Radiometer Retrievals

Humidity profiles retrieved from a ground-based millimeter-wave radiometer located at McMurdo Station, Antarctica and the West Antarctica Ice Sheet Divide are presented and their suitability to study the humidity of the polar climate is assessed. The dry conditions of the Antarctic winter and spring are ideal for ground-based millimeter-wave measurements and the retrievals appear to realistically reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of humidity at both sites. Furthermore, the radiometer has the ability to capture daily variability of very low humidity (0.5 to 4 g/kg) in the low-to-mid troposphere with an uncertainty of 10-20% during the Antarctic winter, spring, and summer. Despite the coarse vertical resolution (200-600 m in the first 4 km), the retrievals provide additional information with respect to the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) profiles used as background information. The radiometer is also able to realistically identify the location and frequency of supersaturated layers with respect to ice in the mid troposphere. The occurrence of supersaturated layers is correlated with the occurrence of ice clouds identified by a cloud mask. Overall, results show that ground-based microwave and millimeter-wave radiometry is a viable complement to satellite observations to provide continuous information on the thermodynamic state of the low-to-mid troposphere at high latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Submillimeter-Wave Cloud Ice Radiometry

Submillimeter-wave cloud ice radiometry is a new and innovative technique for characterizing cirrus ice clouds. Cirrus clouds affect Earth's climate and hydrological cycle by reflecting incoming solar energy, trapping outgoing IR radiation, sublimating into vapor, and influencing atmospheric circulation. Since uncertainties in the global distribution of cloud ice restrict the accuracy of both climate and weather models, successful development of this technique could provide a valuable tool for investigating how clouds affect climate and weather. Cloud ice radiometry could fill an important gap in the observational capabilities of existing and planned Earth-observing systems. Using submillimeter-wave radiometry to retrieve properties of ice clouds can be understood with a simple model. There are a number of submillimeter-wavelength spectral regions where the upper troposphere is transparent. At lower tropospheric altitudes water vapor emits a relatively uniform flux of thermal radiation. When cirrus clouds are present, they scatter a portion of the upwelling flux of submillimeter-wavelength radiation back towards the Earth as shown in the diagram, thus reducing the upward flux o f energy. Hence, the power received by a down-looking radiometer decreases when a cirrus cloud passes through the field of view causing the cirrus cloud to appear radiatively cool against the warm lower atmospheric thermal emissions. The reduction in upwelling thermal flux is a function of both the total cloud ice content and mean crystal size. Radiometric measurements made at multiple widely spaced frequencies permit flux variations caused by changes in crystal size to be distinguished from changes in ice content, and polarized measurements can be used to constrain mean crystal shape. The goal of the cloud ice radiometry program is to further develop and validate this technique of characterizing cirrus. A multi-frequency radiometer is being designed to support airborne science and spacecraft validation missions. This program has already extended the initial millimeter-wave modeling studies to submillimeter-wavelengths and has improved the realism of the cloud scattering models. Additionally a proof-of-concept airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer was constructed and fielded. It measured a radiometric signal from cirrus confirming the basic technical feasibility of this technique. This program is a cooperative effort of the University of Colorado, Colorado State University, Swales Aerospace, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Additional information is contained in the original.

Walter, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Historical and Future Climate Change

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. The QBO can be seen in stratospheric zonal wind, temperature, and composition, but it also has a number of teleconnections—including to the polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Thus, its future trends will have a signature on the surface. Recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that a weakening of the QBO amplitude is very likely, but changes to QBO period and stability remain unclear, due in part to its highly parameterized nature. We investigate these aspects using multiple configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). As a high-top model with gravity wave drag partly sourced from (parameterized) convection, Model E2.2 includes key pathways for climate forcings to influence the QBO. Overall, both the period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO2, with convection feedbacks critical for the period response, and ozone feedbacks enhancing the amplitude response. We use these results to interpret QBO trends in the historical and SSP integrations. Lastly, we examine the effect of volcanic eruptions on the QBO

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS1991

Monitoring, analyzing, and modeling global climate

Diabatic heating rate estimates as residuals of the dry thermodynamic equation were generated for May 1, 1985 to December 1989 in pentad resolution. Published results show moderate correlations (approx. .6) between heating rate and outgoing long wave radiation for periods under 90 days in the tropics and many extratropical locations. Nine years of simulation with the Community Climate Model 1 (CCM1) using R15 and observed sea surface temperatures shows that the model retains significantly more heat at the surface and in the free atmosphere than does the actual earth system. A post-processor for the CCM1, with capabilities to produce simulated microwave sounding unit (MSU) brightness temperatures was written. Techniques were refined considerably and validation studies were carried out to verify the globally distributed free atmosphere temperature anomalies derived from MSU data. The precision is such that detailed, long-term climate monitoring is well within the capability of these data.

Christy, John R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Meridional Extent of Adiabatic Mixing in the Stratosphere Using Age-Of-Air

Wave-induced adiabatic mixing in the winter midlatitudes is one of the key processes impacting stratospheric transport. Understanding its strength and structure is vital to understanding the distribution of trace gases and their modulation under a changing climate. Age-of-air is often used to understand stratospheric transport, and this study proposes refinements to the vertical age gradient theory of Linz et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035199. The theory assumes exchange of air between a well-mixed tropics and a well-mixed extratropics, separated by a transport barrier, quantifying the adiabatic mixing flux across the interface using age-based measures. These assumptions are re-evaluated and a refined framework that includes the effects of meridional tracer gradients is established to quantify the mixing flux. This is achieved, in part, by computing a circulation streamfunction in age-potential temperature coordinates to generate a complete distribution of parcel ages being mixed in the midlatitudes. The streamfunction quantifies the “true” age of parcels mixed between the tropics and the extratropics. Applying the revised theory to an idealized and a comprehensive climate model reveals that ignoring the meridional gradients in age leads to an underestimation of the wave-driven mixing flux. Stronger, and qualitatively similar fluxes are obtained in both models, especially in the lower-to-middle stratosphere. While the meridional span of adiabatic mixing in the two models exhibits some differences, they show that the deep tropical pipe, that is, latitudes equatorward of 15° barely mix with older midlatitude air. The novel age-potential temperature circulation can be used to quantify additional aspects of stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing thermal resilience of an assisted living facility during heat waves and cold snaps with power outages

Extreme hot and cold weather events are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer due to climate change. When these events occur coincidentally with power outages, the resulting extreme indoor temperatures pose a severe health hazard for occupants. This study conducted a holistic modeling and analysis of an assisted living facility, where senior residents live, to assess its thermal resilience performance under a six-day heat wave in 2015 and a three-day cold snap in 2021 with power outages. Impacts of 13 energy efficiency measures on thermal resilience and backup power capacity of the facility were evaluated. Three thermal resilience metrics: the SET (standard effective temperature) degree-hours, the Heat Index, and the Hours of Safety, were used and calculated from the EnergyPlus simulation models. Furthermore, major findings are: (1) the facility would suffer from extreme temperatures during the cold and hot events without a power supply, not meeting the passive survivability requirements; (2) most passive envelope measures improve thermal resilience for both hot and cold events, but making the building envelope airtight results in conflicting performance between the hot and cold events; (3) natural ventilation is an effective measure to mitigate summer indoor overheating; and (4) the energy efficiency package can reduce backup power capacity by 19% for the three-day cold snap. It is recommended that building technologies and design strategies be evaluated to consider co-benefits of energy use, thermal resilience, and backup power needs through building energy codes or policies for existing and new buildings, which are transitioning for decarbonization and climate resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
NASA NTRS1990

A comparison of the climate simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1:R15) with ECMWF analyses

The Community Climate Model (CCM) is a comprehensive three-dimensional global atmospheric model assembled at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Detailed comparisons are made between the climate simulated by a seasonal version of CCM, namely CCM1, at 12 level, R15 spectral resolution, and that revealed by ECMWF operational analyses over 1980-86 truncated to a similar resolution. A variety of circulation statistics are presented in order to reveal the spatial character and seasonality of CCM1 biases in temperature, winds, and wave flux quantities. The biases revealed for CCM1 are similar in many respects to those found in other climate models run at similar resolution. Results of this study are then presented, discussing temperature biases and thermodynamic balances, wind fields, zonal mean wave diagnostics, stationary waves, and local eddy statistics. The major findings are then summarized.

Randel, William J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO and its Modulation by Composition Feedbacks

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts the large-scale circulation by altering lower stratospheric meridional temperature gradients which alter the propagation of upward propagating planetary waves. Proposed teleconnections of the QBO include impacts on the stratospheric polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, long-term projections of the QBO remain highly uncertain. While recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) show that the amplitude of the QBO weakens robustly among models, changes in QBO period and stability remain highly uncertain. Here we examine the QBO response to increased greenhouse gases using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Middle Atmosphere Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). Compared to lower vertical resolution versions of ModelE, E2.2 also has a higher model top (0.002 hPa) and employs additional interactive non-orographic gravity wave drag sources from convection and shear, which produce a sufficiently realistic QBO, thus rendering it suitable for use in climate change studies. Overall, we find that both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO , the former related to increased lower stratospheric momentum fluxes (associated with convection) and the latter associated partly with a stronger residual mean circulation. Experiments integrated using fully interactive chemistry also reveal that ozone feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of the QBO amplitude response. Finally, integrations using fixed (pre-industrial) sea surface temperatures (SST) show that the QBO amplitude responds differently to rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks, as compared to the QBO period.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Coupled Roles of Dust and Clouds in the Mars Climate

During the period October 1997 to September 1999 we obtained and analyzed over 100 millimeter-wave observations of Mars atmospheric CO line absorption for atmospheric temperature profiles. These measurements extend through one full Mars year (solar longitudes L(sub S) of 190 deg in 1997 to 180 deg in 1999) and coincide with atmospheric temperature profile and dust column measurements front the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) experiment on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft. A comparison of Mars atmospheric temperatures retrieved by these distinct methods provides the first opportunity to place the long-term (1982-1999) millimeter retrievals of Mars atmospheric temperatures within the context of contemporaneous, spatially mapped spacecraft, observations. Profile comparisons of 0-30 km altitude atmospheric temperatures retrieved with the two techniques agree typically to within the 5 K calibration accuracy of the millimeter observations. At the 0.5 mbar pressure level (approximately 25 km altitude) the 30N/30S average for TES infrared temperatures and the disk-averaged millimeter temperatures are also well correlated in their seasonal and dust-storm-related variations over the 1997-1999 period. This period includes the Noachis Terra regional dust storm, which led to very abrupt heating (approximately 15 K at 0.5 mbar) of the global Mars atmosphere at L(sub S)=224 deg in 1997 [Christensen et al., 1998; Conrath et al., this issue; Smith et al., this issue]. Much colder (10-20 K) global atmospheric temperatures were observed during the 1997 versus 1977 perihelion periods (L(sub S)=200 deg-330 deg), consistent with the much (2 to 8 times) lower global dust loading of the atmosphere during the 1997 perihelion dust storm season versus the Viking period of the 1977a,b storms. The 1998-1999 Mars atmosphere revealed by both the millimeter and TES observations is also 10-15 K colder than presented by the Viking climatology during the aphelion season (L(sub S)=0 deg-180 deg, northern spring/summer) of Mars. We reassess the observational basis of the Viking dusty-warm climatology for this season to conclude that the global aphelion atmosphere of Mars is colder, less dusty, and cloudier than indicated by the established Viking climatology even for the Viking period. We also conclude that Mars atmospheric temperatures exhibit their most significant interannual variations during the perihelion dust storm season (10-20 K for L(sub S)=200 deg-340 deg) and during the post-aphelion northern summer season (5-10 K for L(sub S)=100 deg-200 deg).

Clancy, R. Todd↗
NASA NTRS2012

Receivers Gather Data for Climate, Weather Prediction

Signals from global positioning system (GPS) satellites are now being used for more than just location and navigation information. By looking at the radio waves from GPS satellites, a technology developed at NASA s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) not only precisely calculates its position, but can also use a technique known as radio occultation to help scientists study the Earth s atmosphere and gravity field to improve weather forecasts, monitor climate change, and enhance space weather research. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), a nonprofit group of universities in Boulder, Colorado, compares radio occultation to the appearance of a pencil when viewed though a glass of water. The water molecules change the path of visible light waves so that the pencil appears bent, just like molecules in the air bend GPS radio signals as they pass through (or are occulted by) the atmosphere. Through measurements of the amount of bending in the signals, scientists can construct detailed images of the ionosphere (the energetic upper part of the atmosphere) and also gather information about atmospheric density, pressure, temperature, and moisture. Once collected, this data can be input into weather forecasting and climate models for weather prediction and climate studies. Traditionally, such information is obtained through the use of weather balloons. In 1998, JPL started developing a new class of GPS space science receivers, called Black Jack, that could take precise measurements of how GPS signals are distorted or delayed along their way to the receiver. By 2006, the first demonstration of a GPS radio occultation constellation was launched through a collaboration among Taiwan s National Science Council and National Space Organization, the U.S. National Science Foundation, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and other Federal entities. Called the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), JPL was responsible for designing COSMIC s primary instrument - based on its revolutionary Black Jack receiver.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗