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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A software package for modeling and simulating fault graphs

This report describes a novel fault graph modeling language and a simulation tool for executing models specified in the language. The modeling language has three primary features that distinguish it from similar reliability analysis tools. These are (1) a random variable modeling several distinct outcomes of a single fault; (2) chains of faults in which one fault triggers another; and (3) time to fail sampled from probability distributions including positive normal, exponential, Weibull with a minimum, or immediate. These features are motivated by their use in a historical analysis of centrifuge reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status Report on ASME Code Development for Nonmetallic Core Components in 2020

The purpose of this report is to provide a status update on the progress and ongoing activities of the current ASME Boiler Pressure Vessel (BPV) Code Section III, Division 5, on nonmetallic core components and assemblies which includes the design rules for graphite and ceramic composite materials. Section III is concerned with the design and construction of nuclear reactor components and Division 5 focuses on high temperature reactors (HTR). The ASME Section III Committee’s function for nuclear items other than pressure-retaining components, is to establish rules of safety related to structural integrity. The term “construction” refers to the all-inclusive effort comprising of materials, design, fabrication, examination, inspection, testing, certification, and pressure relief. The Department of Energy (DOE) supports industry codes and standards development through focused research providing the technical basis for new or modified codes and standards and the participation of subject matter experts in codes and standards committees. The activities for the nonmetallic core components and assemblies committees are the pursuit of two working groups that meet quarterly during ASME BPV Code Week meetings. The two working groups are General Requirements for Graphite and Ceramic Composite Core Components and Assemblies (GR GCCCCA) and Nonmetallic Design and Materials (NDM). The rules on general requirements for nonmetallic core components are discussed in the articles of Subsection HA subpart B. Ceramic composites were recently incorporated within the rules, and the GR GCCCCA working group is now in the process of aligning the requirements with the subsections and articles of ASME BPV Code Section III NCA, the general requirements for Division 1 and 2 of the code. The NDM working group is concerned with the design rules for graphite and composite materials for core components and assemblies discussed in Subsection HH (Class SN Nonmetallic Core Components) subpart A and subpart B which reference graphite and composite materials respectively. The bulk of the progress and work is done within this working group. A significant undertaking, with discussion that started in 2015, is to gain endorsement of ASME Section III, Division 5, by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). In June 2018, ASME formally recommended endorsement to the NRC. The NRC has since initiated the endorsement review process, which is to be concluded early in 2021. ASME task groups on metallic structures and components, as well as non-metallic core support structures, have been formed to define potential pathways and schedules for NRC endorsement of Division 5. NRC determined to perform a review on the 2017 edition of Section III Division 5 as a baseline. As a result, the use of graphite as nonmetallic core components formed part of the review, but it excluded composite materials (which were first introduced in the 2019 edition). This report documents progress in FY 2020 directed toward ASME’s efforts to develop design codes for graphite and composites. Progress includes a major code review by NRC, the first code enquiry, and its solution, an overhaul of the treatment of Weibull Statistics, and the addition of Nonmandatory Appendices to the composites code relating to carbon-carbon composite materials.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial development of a high temperature life prediction method directly accounting for variability in material properties

This report presents the initial development of a life prediction method that accounts for the variability of the material properties in Grade 91 steel. We account for material variability by both fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to the rupture data of the material and by quantifying the effect that the creep deformation properties have on stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure a reasonable time frame when applying Monte Carlo to the creep stress, we propose a methodology that models the material as an extremely viscous Stokes flow with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the problem in a single step. We use the final probabilistic model for structural failure developed in this document to evaluate a Flat Head Vessel designed with the Section III, Division 5 ASME Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code rules with a 100,000h design life and assess its probability of premature failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model of Operation-and-Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems

This article presents a method for calculating costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. It compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($\$$/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($\$$) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($\$$). Here we show that this method is an improvement over the previous averaged or levelized per-unit ($\$$/kW/year) valuations for estimating PV O&M costs, because it allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string or central inverter) and site and environmental conditions (e.g., snow, pollen, bird populations). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time because of heuristic failure distributions (e.g. Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services. This cost model was created by the PV O&M Working Group of researchers and industry, sponsored by DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office, and has been published in an on-line version hosted by SunSpec Alliance at apsuite.sunspec.org. A spreadsheet version is included with this paper as supplementary material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Distributions for Mesh Independent Solutions in ALEGRA

The representation of material heterogeneity (also referred to as "spatial variation") plays a key role in the material failure simulation method used in ALEGRA. ALEGRA is an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian shock and multiphysics code developed at Sandia National Laboratories and contains several methods for incorporating spatial variation into simulations. A desirable property of a spatial variation method is that it should produce consistent stochastic behavior regardless of the mesh used (a property referred to as "mesh independence"). However, mesh dependence has been reported using the Weibull distribution with ALEGRA's spatial variation method. This report describes efforts towards providing additional insight into both the theory and numerical experiments investigating such mesh dependence. In particular, we have implemented a discrete minimum order statistic model with properties that are theoretically mesh independent.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanical and Thermophysical Properties of 3D-Printed SiC before and after Neutron Irradiation – FY21

This report presents the mechanical and thermophysical properties of 3D-printed SiC before and after neutron irradiation that have been evaluated to assess the fuel matrix material for the Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR). The TCR fuel form consists of an additively-manufactured silicon carbide (SiC) matrix and uranium nitride tristructural isotropic (UN TRISO) fuel particles, which is manufactured through a newly developed processing route combining binderjet 3D printing, TRISO fuel particle loading, and chemical vapor infiltration (CVI). Because the fuel matrix is a primary component of the TCR core and its response to mechanical and thermal loads during operation is one of the most influential factors on the integrity of TCR core, testing and evaluation have focused on producing mechanical and thermophysical properties data for the binderjet/CVI SiC. Baseline mechanical and thermophysical properties were measured from the disk specimens printed for different and sizes orientations, which included equibiaxial flexural failure strength, elastic constants, thermal diffusivity and conductivity, density, and the coefficient of thermal expansion. Flexural failure strength datasets showed similar Weibull distributions regardless of sample variants including different orientations. The mean failure strengths of the 3D-printed SiC variants were in the range of 280–310 MPa, which are slightly lower than that of the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) SiC. Thermophysical test results showed that specific heat and thermal expansion are not sensitive to the build direction of SiC samples, while thermal conductivity is highly dependent on the build direction and can be correlated to the anisotropic character of the 3D-printed SiC. Neutron irradiation tests were carried out on the 3D-printed 6-mm diameter SiC disk specimens. Irradiation was carried to 2.3 dpa over a temperature range of 360–880°C. No significant degradation in strength was observed in SiC after irradiations in various conditions and with different orientations. Anisotropy that had been observed in the thermal conductivity of 3D-printed SiC prior to irradiation vanished after irradiation as the irradiation defect thermal resistivity accumulated in the material. Electron microscopy of the microstructure after neutron irradiation showed distinct defect morphologies in the heterogenous material, but no evidence for irradiation-induced cracking or degradation in the microstructure was observed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification Testing For Solid-Element Material Models 11-19 in DYNA3D/ParaDyn

This technical report documents the creation and implementation of verification tests for solid-element material models 11 through 19 available in DYNA3D/ParaDyn. The verification tests covered all aspects of each material model, except for the Weibull distribution functionality in material models 15 and 19. General test cases were created to verify the elastic and plastic behavior of the material models. Other additional tests were developed to examine the intricacies of each material model. Each test involved the use a kinematic load case and specification of material parameters necessary to activate corresponding features of the material model. The load cases prescribed the full time history of the kinematic motion for the solid elements, and these loads are independent of the material model or element formulation. When possible, closed form solutions were then derived for each verification test in a continuum setting. The DYNA3D simulations for each test were carried out over a unit time interval, t ϵ [0, 1], and the as implemented DYNA3D response was compared to the closed form solutions evaluated at discrete points in time. A relative error measure was determined for each test to justify the proper implementation of the material model. The relative errors comparing the DYNA3D solution to the analytical solution were, in general, on the order of machine precision except where noted. This signifies the proper implementation of solid-element material models 11-19. In the development of these verification tests, six bugs were found and fixed in the source code. Additionally, this work generated eighteen DYNA3D input decks and answer extraction scripts in the DYNA3D/ParaDyn Software Quality Assurance test suite, which are comprised of a total of 285 solid-element tests. Testing for each material model utilizes two input decks and answer extraction scripts, where one focuses on the linear elastic response and the other examines the inelastic and remaining functionalities of the material model. In total, this work added 285 individual verification test problems in the DYNA3D/ParaDyn test suite.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Develop and Connect TRISO Failure Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Fission Product Release Calculation Capability

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Stress-based failure probability has been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles. While simple, stress-based approaches to failure probability leveraging the Weibull statistical distribution entails a number of drawbacks when stress concentration occurs near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency. In this report, we use an interaction integral approach to the computation of stress intensity factors in functionally graded materials (FGM) for axisymmetric models. The inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) cracking induced silicon carbide (SiC) failure is one of the dominated failure modes in TRISO failure analysis. In this study, we consider a crack in the IPyC layer perpendicular to the SiC layer. The interface between these two TRISO layers is considered to be porous, which we simulate considering a transition of mechanical properties over the porous length. These aspects are considered in the computation of stress intensity factor (SIF) from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known stress-based failure probability approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of a Custom Ball-on-Ring Apparatus and Consideration of Common Issues for Use in Further Testing (SULI Deliverables)

Ceramic materials are well-known for their high hardness and strength but are limited in their application due to low toughness and sudden failure. As a potential solution, inspiration can be taken from dental enamel nanostructure, where undulating rods cause cracks to branch or deflect, increasing the energy needed to cause total fracture of a ceramic part. Following the dental enamel structure, a novel ceramic which uses 3D printed Yttria stabilized Zirconia rods in an alumina matrix was developed. To test this bio-inspired ceramic material, a proper testing apparatus needed to be created and tested to verify its accuracy. For this project, a bespoke ball on ring testing apparatus was created and tested using both conventionally sintered alumina disks and purchased alumina disks to validate its accuracy. By comparing the Weibull distribution of rupture strengths measured by the tests to literature values, it was shown that the testing frame had a wide distribution of strength which did not align with literature values on the lower end. Through fractography, it was found that some samples fractured from the contact stress induced by the ball indenter, which could not be used to calculate rupture strength. This fracture was often linked to low stress to failure, which was initiated by a flaw on the surface near the indenter which acted as a stress concentrator. Removal of these samples from the data set increased the accuracy of the reported rupture strength values for the ceramic. Considering the equations for the magnitude of contact and flexural strength, along with observations of initiating flaws, several measures can be taken for testing the bio-inspired composite. These measures include proper polishing of both sides of the sample, reducing sample thickness, and potentially using a softer indenter material.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Additive Manufacturing of C/C-SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites by Automated Fiber Placement of Continuous Fiber Tow in Polymer with Pyrolysis and Reactive Silicon Melt Infiltration

An additive manufacturing process for fabricating ceramic matrix composites has been developed based on the C/C-SiC system. Automated fiber placement of the continuous carbon fibers in a polyether ether ketone matrix was performed to consolidate the carbon fibers into a printed preform. Pyrolysis was performed to convert the polymer matrix to porous carbon, and then Si was introduced by reactive melt infiltration to convert a portion of the carbon matrix to silicon carbide. The densities and microstructures were characterized after each step during the processing, and the mechanical properties were measured. The C/C-SiC composites exhibited a porosity of 10–20%, characteristic flexural strength of 234.91 MPa, and Weibull modulus of 3.21. The composites displayed toughness via a significant displacement to failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reductions in wind farm main bearing rating lives resulting from wake impingement

This paper studies the impacts of wake impingement on main bearing rating lives predicted during the wind turbine design stage. A computational tool chain was developed to explore and quantify these effects across a wind farm populated by 10 MW wind turbines. Wind field and turbine load modelling was undertaken using the Dynamiks Python package, including application of a dynamic wake meandering model. The ISO 281 basic bearing rating life formulation was subsequently applied in order to evaluate impacts from wake effects. Analyses included a two-turbine parametric analysis, followed by a full wind farm analysis undertaken for the TotalControl 32-turbine reference wind farm, including full wind rose simulations across all operational wind speeds. Site conditions were accounted for using a Weibull wind speed distribution and a range of parametric wind direction rose models. Results indicate that wind farm main bearing rating lives are negatively impacted by the effects of wake impingement, resulting in rating life reductions for the analysed wind farm of the order of 16 % on average and as much as 20 %–25 %, both for the locating main bearing. Despite these high sensitivities, it is important to note that these resultant rating lives (i.e. the predicted lives) still far exceed the standard wind turbine operational lifetimes of 20–30 years. Wake impacts were also found to be asymmetrically related to the side on which the rotor is impinged, suggesting that, for the main bearing, there may be a “better” side for wake impingement to occur. Rating life sensitivities to wind rose shape were also observed. While these findings must be interpreted with due consideration for the various methodological limitations present, they provide compelling evidence that wake effects at the wind farm level should necessarily be included when undertaking main bearing operational load modelling, rating life assessment, or other load-related analyses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative comparison of power production and power quality onshore and offshore: a case study from the eastern United States

Abstract. A major issue in quantifying potential power generation from prospective wind energy sites is the lack of observations from heights relevant to modern wind turbines, particularly for offshore where blade tip heights are projected to increase beyond 250 m. We present analyses of uniquely detailed data sets from lidar (light detection and ranging) deployments in New York State and on two buoys in the adjacent New York Bight to examine the relative power generation potential and power quality at these on- and offshore locations. Time series of 10 min wind power production are computed from these wind speeds using the power curve from the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference wind turbine. Given the relatively close proximity of these lidar deployments, they share a common synoptic-scale meteorology and seasonal variability with lowest wind speeds in July and August. Time series of power production from the on- and offshore location are highly spatially correlated with the Spearman rank correlation coefficient dropping below 0.4 for separation distances of approximately 350 km. Hence careful planning of on- and offshore wind farms (i.e., separation of major plants by > 350 km) can be used reduce the system-wide probability of low wind energy power production. Energy density at 150 m height at the offshore buoys is more than 40 % higher, and the Weibull scale parameter is 2 m s−1 higher than at all but one of the land sites. Analyses of power production time series indicate annual energy production is almost twice as high for the two offshore locations. Further, electrical power production quality is higher from the offshore sites that exhibit a lower amplitude of diurnal variability, plus a lower probability of wind speeds below the cut-in and of ramp events of any magnitude. Despite this and the higher resource, the estimated levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is higher from the offshore sites mainly due to the higher infrastructure costs. Nonetheless, the projected LCoE is highly competitive from all sites considered.

Foody, Rebecca↗
NASA NTRS1967

The analysis of Gemini 7 EEG data by three different computer oriented methods

The problem in assessment of electroencephalograms has been the subject element in visual evaluations of such records as well as the need for extensive training (2 or 3 years) before suitable candidate is capable to perform this task. There have been variety of computer type analyses of EEG during the past ten years or more, and we are still searching for a reliable, inexpensive, online data processing procedure for this task. We are aware our Soviet colleagues are routinely using computer assessment of EEGs, using relatively inexpensive hardware. In our report we endeavor to show how four different assessment procedures (visual assessment, zero crossing technique, smoothing and peak counting technique, and Weibull Statistic) may be utilized, and indicate the advantages and disadvantages peculiar to each. We wish to point out that in the Gemini 7 EEG analog records supplied to the Henry Ford Hospital, Channel II (mid-line central to mid-line occipital electrodes) could not be assessed reliably after approximately 26 hours of flight. Channel I (left central to left occipital electrodes) provided the more assessable EEG up to approximately 54 hours of flight. These channels were compared during the first 26 hours of flight, and no significant difference was found by our various assessment procedures. We, therefore, have limited this report to the findings on the analyses of Channel I during its approximate 54 hours of flight.

Proctor, L. D.↗