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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

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NASA NTRS2026

Hyperspectral Detail Meets Radiometric Accuracy: A Foundational Reflected Solar Capability for the Coming Decade

Hyperspectral Earth-reflected solar measurements contain rich, detailed information about clouds, aerosols, and the atmosphere. This information compounds when paired with high, SI-traceable radiometric accuracy. Unlike spectral resolution, which can be resampled to coarser spectral resolutions, radiometric accuracy cannot be recovered once a measurement is made, making the choice to invest in this capability now a decision with lasting consequences for the climate record. CLARREO Pathfinder is demonstrating that this combination of hyperspectral sampling and benchmark-quality accuracy is achievable today, but no follow-on mission is currently planned within NASA's Earth Science Division portfolio, and the recent cancellation of the European Space Agency TRUTHS mission has heightened the urgency of sustaining this capability. We recommend prioritizing investment in a follow-on to CLARREO Pathfinder, along with dedicated support for the science community to fully exploit these measurements. This capability would reduce long-standing uncertainties in cloud feedback, aerosol forcing, and global energy imbalance, while providing a degradation-resistant, gap-resilient calibration foundation for the broader Earth observing system. Building on flight-proven technology and an engaged science community, this is a near-term, fiscally realistic opportunity to secure a foundational Earth observation capability for the coming decade.

satellite↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2017

Accounting for the Speed-Accuracy Trade-Off in Quantifying Human-In-The-Loop Error Probabilities

Human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations cannot collect enough data from human operators to validate estimates of error probabilities for task components. Error rates for tasks have been estimated by using laboratory data for error rates depending on variables such as the cognitive complexity of the task. The limited channel capacity of human operators compels error rates to be strongly related to the time available for the task, the speed-accuracy trade-off. HITL simulations can provide valuable data on the time available for the operator's tasks. We propose that the response times be used in conjunction with measured speed-accuracy curves to estimate the operator error rates contributing to mission failure. Such analyses should be especially important in the estimation of error rates in off-nominal situations.

probability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low- load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the gage sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Cryo–TEM Reconstruction Accuracy of Self–Assembled Polymer Nanostructures

Cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (cryo–TEM) combined with single particle analysis (SPA) is an emerging imaging approach for soft materials. However, the accuracy of SPA–reconstructed nanostructures, particularly those formed by synthetic polymers, remains uncertain due to potential packing heterogeneity of the nanostructures. In this study, the combination of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and image simulations is utilized to validate the accuracy of cryo–TEM 3D reconstructions of self–assembled polypeptoid fibril nanostructures. Using CryoSPARC software, image simulations, 2D classifications, ab initio reconstructions, and homogenous refinements are performed. By comparing the results with atomic models, the recovery of molecular details is assessed, heterogeneous structures are identified, and the influence of extraction location on the reconstructions is evaluated. In conclusion, these findings confirm the fidelity of single particle analysis in accurately resolving complex structural characteristics and heterogeneous structures, exhibiting its potential as a valuable tool for detailed structural analysis of synthetic polymers and soft materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Epistemic Uncertainty in Binary Classification via Accuracy Gain

ABSTRACT Recently, a surge of interest has been given to quantifying epistemic uncertainty (EU), the reducible portion of uncertainty due to lack of data. We propose a novel EU estimator in the binary classification setting, as the posterior expected value of the empirical gain in accuracy between the current prediction and the optimal prediction. In order to validate the performance of our EU estimator, we introduce an experimental procedure where we take an existing dataset, remove a set of points, and compare the estimated EU with the observed change in accuracy. Through real and simulated data experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed EU estimator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing scalability and accuracy of quantum poisson solver

The Poisson equation has many applications across the broad areas of science and engineering. Most quantum algorithms for the Poisson solver presented so far either suffer from lack of accuracy and/or are limited to very small sizes of the problem and thus have no practical usage. In this regard, our previous work showed a proof-of-concept demonstration in advancing quantum Poisson solver algorithm and validated preliminary results for a simple case of 3 x 3 problem. In this work, we delve into comprehensive research details, presenting the results on up to 15 x 15 problems that include step-by-step improvements in Poisson equation solutions, scaling performance, and experimental exploration. In particular, we demonstrate the implementation of eigenvalue amplification by a factor of up to 2 8 , achieving a significant improvement in the accuracy of our quantum Poisson solver and comparing that to the exact solution. Additionally, we present success probability results, highlighting the reliability of our quantum Poisson solver. Moreover, we explore the scaling performance of our algorithm against the circuit depth and width, demonstrating how our approach scales with larger problem sizes and thus further solidifies the practicality of easy adaptation of this algorithm in real-world applications. We also discuss a multilevel strategy for how this algorithm might be further improved to explore much larger problems with greater performance. Finally, through our experiments on the IBM quantum hardware, we conclude that though overall results on the existing NISQ hardware are dominated by the error in the CNOT gates, this work opens a path to realizing a multidimensional Poisson solver on near-term quantum hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermo-hydraulic steam pipe models for district heating simulations: Simplifications to balance accuracy and simulation speed

Steam piping networks are essential for optimizing performance in industrial processes and district heating systems. However, dynamic models that balance thermo-hydraulic accuracy with computational efficiency remain limited. In response, this paper presents a new discretized steam pipe model based on the plug flow approach, capturing key thermo-hydraulic behaviors while simplifying steam phase change processes. Implemented in Modelica, the model accurately calculates temperature and pressure distributions along steam pipelines. To improve computational efficiency for district-scale simulations, five model simplifications are introduced: lumped thermo-hydraulic functions, empirical correlations, fluid state approximations, steady-state dynamics and inclusion of flow derivatives. These simplified models achieve 85%-98% accuracy in predicting pressure drop and condensation losses, including dynamic condensate behavior during pipe warm-up—a factor often overlooked in existing models. The models support diverse network configurations, scaling effectively to systems with multiple distribution pipes and connected building loads. Discrete models provide detailed insights but exhibit a cubic increase in simulation time as the network scales by N connected building O(N 2.42 ). In contrast, lumped models simulate 10–28 times faster than discrete, offering quadratic scaling of simulation time O(N 1.73 ). However, they still require 6 times more computation time than a lossless network, highlighting the inherent computational challenges of modeling compressible fluid flow. In conclusion, the steady-state lumped variant, with its near-linear scalability in computational time O(N 1.01 ), emerges as an efficient solution for preliminary design evaluations and extensive parametric studies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing predictive understanding and accuracy in geological carbon dioxide storage monitoring: Simulation and history matching of tracer transport dynamics

Co-injection of conservative tracers with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is a viable tool for monitoring subsurface processes during geological CO 2 storage (GCS). This research investigates the simulation and history-matching of a gas tracer (sulfur hexafluoride, SF 6 ) during CO 2 flooding, employing a core flooding result in Berea sandstone. Four extensively used saturation functions are assessed for their efficacy in history matching of CO 2 /SF 6 injection at the core scale. The history-matching process incorporates particle swarm optimization (PSO) to fine-tune constitutive relationships parameters. Next, employing transport models at the aquifer scale, we interrogate the impact on tracer transport and mixing of saturation function uncertainties, arising from the non-uniqueness of constitutive relationships parameters and saturation function types. To assess the effects of geological heterogeneity on behavior of tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs), we employ two normalized parameters assessing the degree of mixing and SF 6 breakthrough time. The aquifer-scale investigation encompasses both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with and without capillary heterogeneity effects. Our findings underscore the critical importance of addressing saturation function uncertainties, emphasizing the significance of auxiliary experiments and innovative methodologies to enhance predictive accuracy. The findings highlight significant disparities in arrival times, BTC peaks, tails, and mixing levels, even under optimal conditions. Heterogeneity, with or without capillary heterogeneity, plays a crucial role in shaping BTC variations, resulting in accelerated SF 6 breakthrough times and reduced BTC peaks. Evaluation of monitoring points distant from the injector reveals a dampening effect on the SF6 BTC peak, particularly in heterogeneous systems with capillary heterogeneity, where the peak is halved. These insights underscore the challenges associated with tracer monitoring and the necessity for enhanced methodologies to improve predictive accuracy in subsurface processes during GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Directional finite difference method for directly solving 3D gyrokinetic field equations with enhanced accuracy

The gyrokinetic (GK) field equation is a three-dimensional (3D) elliptic equation, but it is often simplified to a set of two-dimensional (2D) equations by assuming that the field does not vary along a specific direction. However, this simplification can introduce inevitable 0th-order numerical errors, as nonlinear mode coupling in toroidal geometry can produce undesirable harmonic modes that violate the assumption. In this work, we propose a novel directional finite difference method (FDM) with a local coordinate transformation to better resolve the target field of interest. The directional FDM can accurately solve 3D GK field equations without simplifications, which can overcome the limitations of conventional methods. The accuracy and efficiency of different FDMs are analyzed in great detail for a variety of geometries, from simple 2D Cartesian coordinates to realistic 3D curvilinear coordinates. The 0th-order numerical errors of simplified 2D GK equations were found to be more problematic for low-harmonic modes and low aspect ratio geometries such as spherical tokamaks. On the other hand, the directional 3D FDM can accurately resolve a much wider range of harmonic modes aligned to the direction of interest, including the low-harmonic modes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the directional 3D FDM is a highly effective algorithm for solving the 3D GK field equations, achieving accuracy improvements of 10 to 100 times or more, particularly for low-harmonic modes in spherical tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomic Energy Accuracy of Neural Network Potentials: Harnessing Pretraining and Transfer Learning

Machine learning-based interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have transformed the prediction of potential energy surfaces (PESs), achieving accuracy comparable to ab initio calculations. However, atomic energy predictions, often assumed to lack physical meaning, remain underexplored. In this study, we demonstrate that inaccuracies in atomic energy predictions reduce the robustness and transferability of Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) and atomic energy error can be masked in total energy predictions due to error cancellation. Here, we validate this finding using challenging configurations involving deformation and failure under tensile loading. By pretraining atomic energy predictions using empirical potentials and applying transfer learning with density functional theory (DFT) data, we achieve notable improvements in the accuracy of total energy, forces, and stress predictions. Furthermore, this approach enhances the robustness and transferability of NNPs, emphasizing the importance of atomic energy predictions in developing high-quality and reliable MLIPs.

Active Learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Definitive Assessment of the Accuracy, Variationality, and Convergence of Relativistic Coupled Cluster and Density Matrix Renormalization Group in 100-Orbital Space

Accuracy, variationality, and convergence underpin the reliability of modern electronic structure methods, yet definitive benchmarks in the relativistic regime remain elusive due to the absence of numerically exact full configuration interaction (CI) references. Recent algorithmic advances in the CI framework, enabled by the small-tensor-product (STP) decomposition approach, have dramatically extended the tractable size of the configuration space, making numerically exact CI calculations feasible in large active spaces previously beyond reach. In this paper, we employ the recently developed STP-CI framework to perform large-scale numerically exact CI calculations and directly benchmark relativistic coupled cluster and density matrix renormalization group methods. Definitive benchmarking of approximate relativistic electronic structure methods is ensured through the application of the gap theorem, which provides rigorous error bounds on the CI reference and establishes a controlled standard for assessing accuracy, variationality, and convergence.

Chemical calculations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking DFT Accuracy in Predicting O 1s Binding Energies on Metals

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is a powerful tool for probing the electronic structure and composition of materials, particularly metals and metal oxides of relevance to solar cells and catalysis. Density functional theory (DFT) is often used to support XPS peak assignments, but its reliability for predicting oxygen species is not well established. Here, we compile a large data set of experimental oxygen binding energies and evaluate corresponding DFT predictions. We find that as the binding energies of metal-bound atomic oxygen species increase, especially above ≈530 eV, there is a general decrease in the accuracy of DFTpredicted values. Thus, high-binding-energy atomic oxygen species, such as those proposed as active for selective Ag-catalyzed epoxidation, are less well represented. The chemical nature of the oxygen species also influences accuracy, with molecularly bound species more reliably captured across the entire range of energies. These findings illustrate the limitations of DFT for interpreting XPS spectra and provide a benchmark for improving computational methods.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Synthesis and Inverse Design of Electrochromic Polymers with High Efficiency and Accuracy

Here, the design and synthesis of functional polymers, aimed at targeted properties through specific structures, have long been challenged by their complex and often nonlinear structure–property relationships. Key processes, including knowledge accumulation for predictive design and experimental refinement and validation, are traditionally labor-insensitive and time-consuming, making it difficult to balance accuracy and efficiency. Here, we introduce an accelerated, autonomous system for the on-demand synthesis of electronic polymers that achieves the desired electrochromic functionality with high accuracy and efficiency. Our approach leverages large language model-assisted data mining, a physics-informed copolymer machine learning model, and an AI-driven autonomous robotic workflow in the Polybot lab. Within 72 h, Polybot autonomously synthesized electrochromic polymers (ECPs) with targeted, previously-unreported color values, including green polymers with specific absorption profiles, precisely fine-tuning copolymer structures with a 5% step size in comonomer composition within a three-monomer system. A publicly accessible ECP informatics database has also been created to foster knowledge exchange.

AI-driven Robotic Lab↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward ultra-efficient high-fidelity predictions of wind turbine wakes: Augmenting the accuracy of engineering models with machine learning

This study proposes a novel machine learning (ML) methodology for the efficient and cost-effective prediction of high-fidelity three-dimensional velocity fields in the wake of utility-scale turbines. The model consists of an autoencoder convolutional neural network with U-Net skipped connections, fine-tuned using high-fidelity data from large-eddy simulations (LES). The trained model takes the low-fidelity velocity field cost-effectively generated from the analytical engineering wake model as input and produces the high-fidelity velocity fields. The accuracy of the proposed ML model is demonstrated in a utility-scale wind farm for which datasets of wake flow fields were previously generated using LES under various wind speeds, wind directions, and yaw angles. Comparing the ML model results with those of LES, the ML model was shown to reduce the error in the prediction from 20% obtained from the Gauss Curl hybrid (GCH) model to less than 5%. In addition, the ML model captured the non-symmetric wake deflection observed for opposing yaw angles for wake steering cases, demonstrating a greater accuracy than the GCH model. The computational cost of the ML model is on par with that of the analytical wake model while generating numerical outcomes nearly as accurate as those of the high-fidelity LES.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Shock Hugoniot calculations using on-the-fly machine learned force fields with ab initio accuracy

We present a framework for computing the shock Hugoniot using on-the-fly machine learned force field (MLFF) molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we employ an MLFF model based on the kernel method and Bayesian linear regression to compute the free energy, atomic forces, and pressure, in conjunction with a linear regression model between the internal and free energies to compute the internal energy, with all training data generated from Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT). We verify the accuracy of the formalism by comparing the Hugoniot for carbon with recent Kohn–Sham DFT results in the literature. In so doing, we demonstrate that Kohn–Sham calculations for the Hugoniot can be accelerated by up to two orders of magnitude, while retaining ab initio accuracy. We apply this framework to calculate the Hugoniots of 14 materials in the FPEOS database, comprising 9 single elements and 5 compounds, between temperatures of 10 kK and 2 MK. We find good agreement with first principles results in the literature while providing tighter error bars. In addition, we confirm that the inter-element interaction in compounds decreases with temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accuracy of Kohn–Sham density functional theory for warm- and hot-dense matter equation of state

We study the accuracy of Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) for warm- and hot-dense matter (WDM and HDM). Specifically, considering a wide range of systems, we perform accurate ab initio molecular dynamics simulations with temperature-independent local/semilocal density functionals to determine the equations of state at compression ratios of 3x–7x and temperatures near 1 MK. We find very good agreement with path integral Monte Carlo benchmarks, while having significantly smaller error bars and smoother data, demonstrating the accuracy of DFT for the study of WDM and HDM at such conditions. In addition, using a Δ-machine learned force field scheme, we confirm that the DFT results are insensitive to the choice of exchange-correlation functional, whether local, semilocal, or nonlocal.

Suryanarayana, Phanish (ORCID:0000000151720049)↗