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SU-E-T-206: Improving Radiotherapy Toxicity Based On Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Purpose/Objective(s): The aim of this study is to build the estimator of toxicity using artificial neural network (ANN) for head and neck cancer patients Materials/Methods: An ANN can combine variables into a predictive model during training and considered all possible correlations of variables. We constructed an ANN based on the data from 73 patients with advanced H and N cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy at our institution. For the toxicity estimator we defined input data including age, sex, site, stage, pathology, status of chemo, technique of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), length of treatment, dose of EBRT, status of post operation, length of follow-up, the status of local recurrences and distant metastasis. These data were digitized based on the significance and fed to the ANN as input nodes. We used 20 hidden nodes (for the 13 input nodes) to take care of the correlations of input nodes. For training ANN, we divided data into three subsets such as training set, validation set and test set. Finally, we built the estimator for the toxicity from ANN output. Results: We used 13 input variables including the status of local recurrences and distant metastasis and 20 hidden nodes for correlations. 59 patients for training set, 7 patients for validation set and 7 patients for test set and fed the inputs to Matlab neural network fitting tool. We trained the data within 15% of errors of outcome. In the end we have the toxicity estimation with 74% of accuracy. Conclusion: We proved in principle that ANN can be a very useful tool for predicting the RT outcomes for high risk H and N patients. Currently we are improving the results using cross validation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improvements in SMR Modular Construction through Supply Chain Optimization and Lessons Learned

Affordable energy is a critical societal need. Capital construction cost is a significant portion of nuclear energy cost. By controlling and reducing cost, companies can build more competitive nuclear power plants and hence provide access to more affordable energy. Modular construction provides an opportunity to reduce the cost of construction, and as projects scale up in number, the cost of each unit can be further reduced. The objective of this project was to advance design and construction methods for manufacturing Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and in particular to improve modular construction techniques and develop best practices for designing and operating supply chains that take advantage of these techniques. The overarching objectives were to accelerate the construction schedule and reduce its variability, reduce the cost of construction, reduce interest costs accrued during construction (IDC), and thus enhance the economic attractiveness of SMRs. Our fundamental measure of merit was total capital investment cost (TCIC). To achieve these objectives, this project developed a decision support system, EVAL, to support identifying, addressing, and resolving or ameliorating challenges and deficiencies in the current modular construction approach. The results of this effort were consistent with the facts that the cost of a construction activity is often smallest when accomplished in the factory, greatest when accomplished at the construction site, and at an intermediate level when accomplished at an assembly area close to the construction site. Further, EVAL can aid in providing insight into ways to reduce waste, improve quality, efficiency, and throughput and reflects the fact that the more done early in the construction process, i.e., in the factory, the more upfront funding is required and hence the more IDC will be accrued. The analysis has lead to a better understanding of circumstances under which modular construction performed mainly in the factory will result in lower expected total cost, relative to more traditional, on-site construction procedures. Further, we anticipate that EVAL can be used to gain insight regarding what role standardization can play in order for modularization to be most effectively defined. Such results would ultimately benefit all (small and large) new nuclear construction.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Robotics for Systems Integration in Buildings: Pilot Study of Viable Approaches to Install Hygrothermal and Rigid Electrical Systems

The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been exploring the use of robotics to integrate hygrothermal, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems in prefabricated building assemblies (off-site construction) and 3D-printed buildings (on-site construction). Such multisystem integration tasks often require specialized robots and custom end effectors to handle a range of rigid and nonrigid building components. This paper begins with a brief overview of the current state of robotics in construction, followed by a pilot study exploring the use of robotics to integrate a simple prototype multitrade wall assembly composed of structural studs, hygrothermal layer, wall finishing, and electrical fixtures. The study was funded by the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Office (AMMTO). Insights about the implementation of design for manufacturing and assembly (DfMA) principles in designing the prototype wall for robotic assembly, and selection of appropriate robotic end-effector hardware to handle these components are included. Detailed comparison of computational toolpath simulations of the robotic assembly process and real-life demonstration of the same are presented. Finally, limitations and lessons learned from this study are included, along with future research recommendations for robotic assembly of more complex multitrade assemblies, including potential scenarios such as robotic outfitting of facilities in extraterrestrial environments.

advanced manufacturing↗

Robotics for Systems Integration in Buildings - Pilot Study of Viable Approaches to Install Hygrothermal and Rigid Electrical Systems: Preprint

The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been exploring the use of robotics to integrate hygrothermal, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems in prefabricated building assemblies (offsite construction) and 3D Printed buildings (onsite construction). Such multi-system integration tasks often require specialized robots and custom end-effectors for handling a range of rigid and non-rigid building components. This paper begins with a brief overview of the current state of robotics in construction, followed by a pilot study exploring the use of robotics to integrate a simple prototype multi-trade wall assembly composed of structural studs, hygrothermal layer, wall finishing, and electrical fixtures. The study was funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Office (AMMTO). Insights about the implementation of design for manufacturing and assembly (DfMA) principles in designing the prototype wall for robotic assembly, and selection of appropriate robotic end effector hardware for handling these components are included. Detailed comparison of computational toolpath simulations of the robotic assembly process and real-life demonstration of the same is presented. Finally, limitations and lessons learned from this study along with future research recommendations for robotic assembly of more complex multi-trade assemblies, including potential scenarios such as robotic outfitting of facilities in extra-terrestrial environments is included.

advanced manufacturing↗

Advanced Instrumentation for Ultrafast Science at the LCLS

This grant supported a Single Investigator and Small Group Research (SISGR) application to enable multi-user research in Ultrafast Science using the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS), the world’s first hard x-ray free electron laser (FEL) which lased for the first time at 1.5 Å on April 20, 2009. The goal of our proposal was to enable a New Era of Science by requesting funds to purchase and build Advanced Instrumentation for Ultrafast Science (AIUS), to utilize the intense, short x-ray pulses produced by the LCLS. The proposed instrumentation will allow peer review selected users to probe the ultrasmall and capture the ultrafast. These tools will expand on the investment already made in the construction of the light source and its instrumentation in both the LCLS and LUSI projects. The AIUS will provide researchers in the AMO, Chemical, Biological and Condensed Matter communities with greater flexibility in defining their scientific agenda at the LCLS. The proposed instrumentation will complement and significantly augment the present AMO instrument (funded through the LCLS project) through detectors and capabilities not included in the initial suite of instrumentation at the facility. We have built all of the instrumentations and they have been utilized by scientists. Please see report attached.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Fiber optics for controls

The design, development, and testing of a fiber optic integrated propulsion/flight control system for an advanced supersonic dash aircraft (flies at supersonic speeds for short periods of time) is the goal of the joint NASA/DOD Fiber Optic Control System Integration (FOCSI) program. Phase 1 provided a comparison of electronic and optical control systems, identified the status of current optical sensor technology, defined the aircraft sensor/actuator environment, proposed architectures for fully optical control systems, and provided schedules for development. Overall, it was determined that there are sufficient continued efforts to develop such a system. It was also determined that it is feasible to build a fiber optic control system for the development of a data base for this technology, but that further work is necessary in sensors, actuators, and components to develop an optimum design, fully fiber optic integrated control system compatible with advanced aircraft environments. Phase 2 is to design, construct, and ground test a fly by light control system. Its first task is to provide a detailed design of the electro-optic architecture.

Seng, Gary T.↗

NASA's Progress Toward Commercial Space Communications — SATCOM Demonstrations and Wideband Multilingual Terminal Development

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Program is continuing to forge a path toward programmatic and operational transformation enabling commercialization of communications and navigation services to the greatest extent possible for near Earth users. U.S. National Space Policy is driving government agencies to incorporate commercial offerings and services to the maximum extent possible. As such, NASA has no plans to build or deploy additional Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS), but will seek to fill NASA mission space-relay capability needs using commercial satellite communications (SATCOM) providers and services. The goal is to support an approach that is both flexible to commercial service constructs and provides continuity of support with current assets as long as required. Progress toward commercial services is advancing in two key areas: (1) awards have been made for demonstrations of SATCOM services, and (2) development of wideband and multilingual user terminals has advanced to the flight demonstration phase. The Communications Services Project (CSP) at Glenn Research Center (GRC), has awarded Funded Space Act Agreements (FSAA) to six industry vendors. Inmarsat Government Inc., Kuiper Government Solutions (KGS) LLC, SES Government Solutions, Space Exploration Technologies, Telesat U.S. Services LLC, and Viasat Incorporated will receive a combined $278.5 million to complete technology development and in-space demonstrations over the next several years. The end-to-end service capabilities being targeted are based on existing NASA mission operational needs. Accordingly, each company has proposed a technical approach to lower costs, increase flexibility, and improve performance for a broad range of missions. In the current market, industry vendors operate at a range of different frequencies and use variable, sometimes proprietary, coding and modulations schemes. As NASA strives for a network comprised of services provided by multiple distinct suppliers, interoperability is a fitting solution to unify the network. Wideband and multi-lingual user terminals are being developed to bridge differences in industry services. Building on ground demonstrations completed in 2021, the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab (APL) will be flight testing a multi-lingual wideband terminal (payload) and demonstrating connectivity to both government and commercial relay services. This paper provides a discussion of the progress toward NASA’s commercial space communications goals and consideration of key challenges and next steps.

commercialization↗

Modularity-at-scale for advanced reactors presentation

Modularity options have been limited for traditional nuclear energy deployment due to the conventional light water reactor (LWR) safety requirements, such as high pressure retaining heavy and robust containment structures. However, a relatively new regulatory approach called ‘Functional Containment’ has potential to allow less expensive and more flexible designs for non-LWRs. Functional containment provides flexibility in design and deployment based on risk-informed and performance-based criteria, so that reactors are not over-designed. Non-nuclear industry has successfully used modular design approaches in automotive, aerospace, chemical processing, building construction, and ship building. These industries have shown that modular construction reduces construction time by around 30% - 50% compared to the conventional stick-built approach. The nuclear industry can use similar approaches to reduce construction time and costs, balanced with safety requirements, using the functional containment approach. This paper discussing the background of modularity in nuclear energy, examples of less learned, modularity approaches in non-nuclear industries and the potential of cost and schedule savings through the emerging regulatory design flexibilities potentially enabling combination of modular deployment at different scales.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Relaxations of the steady optimal gas flow problem for a non-Ideal gas

Natural gas ranks second in U.S. primary energy consumption. Because most production sites are remote, gas must be transported through pipeline networks equipped with compressors, valves, and other components. For both economic efficiency and system reliability, it is desirable to operate these networks optimally. The governing physics across pipeline components entails nonlinear, non-convex equality and inequality constraints, and the most general steady-flow operations problem is a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP).This work focuses on one such steady-flow problem-the Optimal Gas Flow (OGF) for a natural gas pipeline network-which minimizes production cost subject to the steady-flow physics. For day-to-day operations, the ability to quickly compute a globally optimal solution and a strong lower bound for varying demand profiles is crucial. A promising strategy is to build tight relaxations of the OGF’s nonlinear constraints. However, many nonlinearities arising from non-ideal equations of state either lack relaxations or have relaxations that do not scale to realistic network sizes. We address this gap by combining recent advances in polyhedral relaxations for univariate functions to construct tight, computationally efficient relaxations of the OGF with a non-ideal equation of state. These relaxations solve within seconds on a standard laptop. In conclusion, we demonstrate their quality through extensive numerical experiments on very large-scale test networks from the literature and find that the proposed approach proves optimality in 92% of tested instances.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Neutrino physics with JUNO

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 kton multi-purpose underground liquid scintillator detector, was proposed with the determination of the neutrino mass hierarchy (MH) as a primary physics goal. The excellent energy resolution and the large fiducial volume anticipated for the JUNO detector offer exciting opportunities for addressing many important topics in neutrino and astro-particle physics. In this document, we present the physics motivations and the anticipated performance of the JUNO detector for various proposed measurements. Following an introduction summarizing the current status and open issues in neutrino physics, we discuss how the detection of antineutrinos generated by a cluster of nuclear power plants allows the determination of the neutrino MH at a 3–4σ significance with six years of running of JUNO. The measurement of antineutrino spectrum with excellent energy resolution will also lead to the precise determination of the neutrino oscillation parameters ${\mathrm{sin}}^{2}{\theta }_{12}$, ${\rm{\Delta }}{m}_{21}^{2}$, and $| {\rm{\Delta }}{m}_{{ee}}^{2}| $ to an accuracy of better than 1%, which will play a crucial role in the future unitarity test of the MNSP matrix. The JUNO detector is capable of observing not only antineutrinos from the power plants, but also neutrinos/antineutrinos from terrestrial and extra-terrestrial sources, including supernova burst neutrinos, diffuse supernova neutrino background, geoneutrinos, atmospheric neutrinos, and solar neutrinos. As a result of JUNO's large size, excellent energy resolution, and vertex reconstruction capability, interesting new data on these topics can be collected. For example, a neutrino burst from a typical core-collapse supernova at a distance of 10 kpc would lead to ~5000 inverse-beta-decay events and ~2000 all-flavor neutrino–proton ES events in JUNO, which are of crucial importance for understanding the mechanism of supernova explosion and for exploring novel phenomena such as collective neutrino oscillations. Detection of neutrinos from all past core-collapse supernova explosions in the visible universe with JUNO would further provide valuable information on the cosmic star-formation rate and the average core-collapse neutrino energy spectrum. Antineutrinos originating from the radioactive decay of uranium and thorium in the Earth can be detected in JUNO with a rate of ~400 events per year, significantly improving the statistics of existing geoneutrino event samples. Atmospheric neutrino events collected in JUNO can provide independent inputs for determining the MH and the octant of the ${\theta }_{23}$ mixing angle. Detection of the 7Be and 8B solar neutrino events at JUNO would shed new light on the solar metallicity problem and examine the transition region between the vacuum and matter dominated neutrino oscillations. Regarding light sterile neutrino topics, sterile neutrinos with ${10}^{-5}\;{{\rm{eV}}}^{2}\lt {\rm{\Delta }}{m}_{41}^{2}\lt {10}^{-2}\;{{\rm{eV}}}^{2}$ and a sufficiently large mixing angle ${\theta }_{14}$ could be identified through a precise measurement of the reactor antineutrino energy spectrum. Meanwhile, JUNO can also provide us excellent opportunities to test the eV-scale sterile neutrino hypothesis, using either the radioactive neutrino sources or a cyclotron-produced neutrino beam. The JUNO detector is also sensitive to several other beyondthe-standard-model physics. Examples include the search for proton decay via the $p\to {K}^{+}+\bar{\nu }$ decay channel, search for neutrinos resulting from dark-matter annihilation in the Sun, search for violation of Lorentz invariance via the sidereal modulation of the reactor neutrino event rate, and search for the effects of non-standard interactions. The proposed construction of the JUNO detector will provide a unique facility to address many outstanding crucial questions in particle and astrophysics in a timely and cost-effective fashion. Furthermore, it holds the great potential for further advancing our quest to understanding the fundamental properties of neutrinos, one of the building blocks of our Universe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Prototype Laboratory Concept

The prototype laboratory concept was developed to simplify the laboratory design process, and should be considered for use as a new laboratory design methodology. Many developing countries lack adequate public and animal health laboratories and typically do not have the economic means and the design and construction expertise to build a laboratory on their own. These countries rely on international sponsors to provide the funds necessary to design and construct a laboratory. However, these international sponsors are often located far away, making travel back and forth difficult, which leads to an increase in overall costs and delays for the project. The prototype laboratory concept and design methodology were developed to streamline the design process, saving time and money, while also minimizing the number of errors that typically arise using a traditional design process by providing well considered design decisions in advance of the project. By solving numerous detailed design issues early, this methodology will allow the time, attention and energies of the design team to be focused on addressing the specific needs of the end users, the unique design challenges related to a given site and scientific program, and the biosafety and biosecurity risks associated with the scientific activities planned to be conducted in the facility. While the concept could be expanded to cover other types of laboratories to date, it has primarily focused on supporting the implementation of good laboratory design best practices for infectious disease diagnostic and research laboratories for both the human and animal health sectors. This report presents the laboratory design concept and details associated with the modular layouts. It builds on the work previously provided in the interim prototype laboratory concept report delivered to the Cooperative Biological Engagement Program (CBEP) at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) in 2014. This report includes a number of revised and additional module layouts, more detailed information regarding laboratory finishes and equipment, engineering service information, electrical and lighting layouts, plumbing service information and two mechanical service options for each prototype module. Additionally, this report also includes a description of a cost estimating tool that will accompany this report and allow funding agencies to generate an approximate cost for the construction of a laboratory that utilizes the prototype laboratory concept modules. This report is intended to serve a complete document and includes all relevant information from the 2014 prototype laboratory concept report.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure. Figure 1: Project activities The study will consider a representative NPP reinforced concrete reactor building and representative plant safety system. This study will leverage existing research and development (R&D) activities at INL. Figure 1 shows the proposed study steps with the steps in blue representing activities already funded at INL and the steps in purple the activities that would be funded under this proposal. The following results will be documented: 1) Comparison of seismic risk for the non-seismically isolated (non-SI) and seismically isolated (SI) NPP, and 2) an estimate of construction cost savings when implementing SI at the site of the generic NPP.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Human Factors and Technologies Design to Improve User Acceptance of Pooled Rideshare for Increasing Transportation System Energy Efficiency

This multi-year project delivered a comprehensive, human-factors-driven framework to understand, model, and improve pooled rideshare (PR) adoption in the United States. Through three large-scale national survey studies involving more than 16,000 participants across multiple cities and demographic groups, the research established one of the most extensive datasets to date on user perceptions, behavioral barriers, and service expectations related to pooled rideshare. These data revealed key human factors barriers of user acceptance of PR and suggested potential actionable experience optimizations that could lead to increased PR usage. This foundational knowledge guided the development of novel human-factors models and behavioral choice models that quantify how psychological, demographic, and trip-level factors influence willingness to pool. Building on these empirical insights, the project developed advanced behavioral modeling tools, including mixed logit and integrated choice and latent variable models, to capture both observable and latent influences on PR adoption. These models significantly improved the ability to predict riders’ acceptance of pooled trips, explaining choice heterogeneity through latent constructs such as safety, service experience, privacy concerns, time sensitivity, and environmental attitudes. Together, these models provide a robust analytical foundation for designing PR systems that more effectively meet user needs. The project translated human-factors insights and behavioral models into actionable technology innovations by extending POLARIS—an agent-based, activity-based travel simulation platform—into a fully functional pooled rideshare simulation environment. New PR modules, acceptance models, and regional scenarios were implemented for Greenville, SC and Austin, TX, enabling high-fidelity validation of algorithmic strategies under realistic demand and traffic conditions. The simulation platform supported the development and evaluation of adaptive discount-based assignment algorithms, enhanced willingness-to-pay formulations, demographic-aware incentive mechanisms, and a proactive joint assignment and repositioning strategy. Simulation results demonstrated substantial gains in pooling uptake, average vehicle occupancy, energy efficiency, and fleet profitability. In Greenville, pooling adoption more than doubled, while reductions in vehicle-miles traveled and energy consumption were significant. In Austin, pooling improvements were achieved with minimal service-quality trade-offs, and profitability increased across all fleet sizes. Through this research, we developed a comprehensive understanding of the human factors barriers that limit user acceptance of pooled rideshare services. These insights enabled the design of human-factors-aware pooled rideshare technologies that more effectively address user concerns and improve adoption rates. By integrating these models into an advanced agent-based simulation framework, we demonstrated that higher adoption of pooled rideshare can lead to measurable improvements in energy efficiency and system performance. Together, these contributions establish a validated pathway from human-centered analysis to technology development and energy-saving outcomes, supporting national goals for more sustainable and efficient mobility systems.

Jia, Yunyi↗

Machine learning research 1989-90

Multifunctional knowledge bases offer a significant advance in artificial intelligence because they can support numerous expert tasks within a domain. As a result they amortize the costs of building a knowledge base over multiple expert systems and they reduce the brittleness of each system. Due to the inevitable size and complexity of multifunctional knowledge bases, their construction and maintenance require knowledge engineering and acquisition tools that can automatically identify interactions between new and existing knowledge. Furthermore, their use requires software for accessing those portions of the knowledge base that coherently answer questions. Considerable progress was made in developing software for building and accessing multifunctional knowledge bases. A language was developed for representing knowledge, along with software tools for editing and displaying knowledge, a machine learning program for integrating new information into existing knowledge, and a question answering system for accessing the knowledge base.

Porter, Bruce W.↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY2020 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time-separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗